MLBTR is launching a new summer series entitled Taking Inventory, in which we’ll preview the potential trade chips that could become available on a number of likely and borderline selling clubs throughout the league.
Heading into the 2017 season, the Pirates looked like a potential contender, as it wasn’t hard to imagine scenarios in which Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole bounced back, Jameson Taillon built on a strong rookie season, Josh Bell and Tyler Glasnow emerged as solid contributors and an offensive core built around McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco gave pitchers fits. Not much of that has happened, though, and the Bucs have also dealt with Jung Ho Kang’s visa limbo, Taillon’s unexpected testicular cancer diagnosis and Marte’s PED suspension. They’re now 26-35. While there might still be an outside shot they’ll contend, since no other club has yet run away with the NL Central, it looks increasingly likely they’ll consider selling as the summer progresses. If they do, here’s what they’ll have to offer.
Rentals
Tony Watson, LHP (reliever) | Salary: $5.6MM
Watson at one point might have been a good trade chip, but the Pirates recently bumped him from the closer role, and he’s posted a 6.00 ERA since the start of May. Watson is still left-handed, can touch the mid-90s, and has a good overall track record, however, so there’s still a chance a team could part with a real prospect to get him, particularly if he can reemerge over the next six weeks. He did pitch a scoreless inning yesterday against the Marlins, which is perhaps a good sign.
Juan Nicasio, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $3.65MM
The hard-throwing Nicasio appears to have finally settled in as a key contributor to the Pirates’ bullpen this season, posting a 1.35 ERA, 8.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. That low ERA probably unsustainable, but he’s a good bet to continue to be successful. A team could also conceivably use him as a starter, but since he’s almost completely scrapped his changeup and tends to fare better as a reliever, it’s likely teams will pursue him as a bullpen asset. He could further boost his stock by pitching well in any save chances he gets in the wake of Watson’s demotion from the closer role.
Antonio Bastardo, LHP (reliever) | Salary: $6.5MM
Bastardo is currently on the DL with a quad strain (though he’s close to a return) and pitched miserably in April (allowing 12 runs and six walks in 6 2/3 innings). One team, the Mets, has already essentially dumped his contract when they shipped him to Pittsburgh for Jon Niese at last August’s non-waiver deadline. It’s unlikely Bastardo will have much value this summer, although he’s perhaps worth watching as a possible addition to the lefty reliever trade market if he returns and pitches reasonably before then.
John Jaso, 1B/OF | Salary: $4MM
Jaso boasts a good eye at the plate and has gamely attempted to be versatile in the field. Unfortunately, his abilities to hit for contact and power seem to be fading (he’s batting just .236 this season and has only three homers in 140 plate appearances), and he isn’t really an outfielder. He might attract limited interest from a team interested in a veteran left-handed bat off the bench.
Controlled Through 2018
Andrew McCutchen, OF | Salary: $14MM
McCutchen has a team option for 2018 worth $14.5MM, with a $1M buyout. The former MVP once appeared to be a significant trade asset, of course; even after a down 2017 season, the Pirates appeared last winter to be on the verge of trading him to the Nationals for a package that included Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning. McCutchen’s even worse hitting performance in 2017 (.237/.319/.411), though, makes his mediocre 2016 season look like less of an anomaly, leading to questions about whether the Pirates would even exercise his option if they were to keep him beyond this summer. McCutchen seems to have gotten back on the right track in the past few weeks, batting .350/.449/.525 over the past 14 days. Another month or so of that kind of hitting would go a long way toward solidifying his market.
Daniel Hudson, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $5.5MM
Hudson is also under contract for 2018 at $5.5MM. He has not pitched well in 2017 (5.33 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, although he’s fared decently since a five-run blowup against Miami in late April), and the Pirates, who believe in their ability to boost the stock of struggling pitchers, might be inclined to keep him and hope he benefits from their coaching.
Wade LeBlanc, LHP (reliever) | Salary: $750K
LeBlanc has a $1.25MM option or a $50K buyout for 2018. He has fared reasonably well this year (3.89 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 over 37 innings), although he wouldn’t be an exciting pickup, given his modest pedigree and limited velocity. He could still attract interest from a team in need of a reliever capable of pitching multiple-inning stretches, although he would continue to be useful for the Pirates thanks to that ability, particularly if they were to trade other pitchers.
Jordy Mercer, SS | Salary: $4.325MM
Mercer has been a steady but unspectacular regular shortstop throughout his career and would have only modest trade value despite a solid .347 OBP this season. Particularly with Kang still on the restricted list, the Pirates don’t yet have an obvious replacement for Mercer. They might therefore be inclined to keep him.
Chris Stewart, C | Salary: $1.4MM
Stewart also has a $1.5MM option or a $250K buyout for 2018. The backup is currently on the DL and would have very limited trade value even if he were healthy.
Longer-Term Assets
Righty Gerrit Cole is controllable through 2019 through the arbitration process. Connor Byrne recently examined Cole’s trade candidacy, noting that the problem with Cole as a trade asset is that he hasn’t pitched well recently — he’s given up a total of 23 runs over his last four starts. The Astros have reportedly had interest in Cole, and they’d surely join a long list of teams making calls about Cole should be the Bucs make him available (which they reportedly haven’t). The Pirates, though, might be reluctant to part with him given the years of control they have remaining and the possibility that they could be selling low. Of course, teams might be willing to pay high prices for him anyway, given his stuff, solid peripherals (7.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 45.7 GB%) and unsustainably high home-run rate. Cole could be an interesting player to watch as the summer unfolds.
Other longer-term assets who could potentially come up in trade discussions include Ivan Nova (controllable through 2019), Francisco Cervelli (2019), David Freese (2019) and Josh Harrison (2020). None of those players seem terribly likely to be traded, although it’s possible to imagine Cervelli or Freese heading elsewhere under certain circumstances. Cervelli is currently on the 7-day concussion DL, and youngster Elias Diaz has hit well in limited opportunities. Perhaps Cervelli could be dealt should the Pirates choose to rebuild more aggressively than it currently appears they will. Freese has batted .273/.376/.432 this season and would undoubtedly be an attractive trade candidate, although with Kang out, the Bucs can certainly still use him.
Something doesn’t seem right with Cole. Looks like he might have a injury that he is trying to pitch through. Location, not Velocity is generally the first sign of a injury. Guys with his skill set shouldn’t be getting this type of results.
It would be interesting to know whT Huntington would decide if he had to make the choice right now whether to pick up McCutchen’s option or take the buyout. This team is definitely at a crossroads. Choose wisely, Neal.
it’s time for a rebuild, trade file at his peak, and bring in as many top 100 prospects as possible. the team is a .500 club right now, some young talent could swing it fast.
trade*Cole
get marte back, bell gets more experience, cole/taillon/glasnow in the rotation. trade cutch, freese, jaso, and all the relievers for cheap, ML ready players (plus a few teenage A ball lotto tix) and they can contend in ’18 and ’19. the NL central is winnable until the Cubs fix their old rotation. I dont think its time to go full rebuild yet.
_=_Felipe Rivero_=_
0.58 ERA
0.742 WHIP
9.9 S/O per nine innings
No one wants this kid at the deadline?
I’m sure everyone would want him, but I doubt the Pirates would have interest in trading him, since he’s controllable for several more years.
Are Rivero’s elbow tendons controllable for several more years?
Hector Neris was all ready to go for a nice return last summer, but the Phillies held onto him.
Now he’s worthless.
Nothing is more volatile in MLB than young pitchers, and bullpen guys are the most volatile of the pitchers.
He isn’t available at the deadline? Controlled for 3 plus years playing like this, I’m pretty sure we have 0 interest in even thinking about any possible trade with him in it
The way this season is going it should be Neal Huntington’s last as GM. He has failed at his stated goal to build a year in and year out contender. Attendance is down over 7000 per game from 2015, possibly tv and radio ratings are also down.
There needs to be a shakeup to create more hope for 2018 and beyond. (as we know additional money is not going to be invested to improve the team).
NH has had 10 years and it is time to declare his tenure as overall failure as far as winning divisions and championships.
Agreed. Huntington has failed not because he didn’t build a solid core of players that have contended. His failure lies in the fact that he never made an acquisition to put the team over the top at crucial moments while the window of opportunity was open. He seems content to have a good team, not a championship team.
playoffs are a crapshoot. do some research. most of the time, big trade acquisitions dont put teams over the top and actually shorten their window.
I disagree. The bucs have been a very solid team since 2011. They’ve had moments, and if they had only been slightly better than the Cardinals, they could have made long playoff runs in 2013-2015. But they didn’t ; it’s a game of inches.
Calling his Tenure a disaster isn’t accurate.
I just hope the PBC does the right thing for the Pirates with the following: Cole, Watson, Bastardo and Hudson….then include McCutchen, Polanco and Cervelli….. as 2017 could be a step forward for team but also could be 2 steps backwards….
Then a draining of the swamp in the FO and Dugout…..
The Pirates really need to take some bold steps to reload with a view to contending in 2020-2025..
If you strategically deal Cole (Houston seems like a completely logical spot and they match up well or you could get a big haul from the Yankees in all likelihood), McCutchen (Cleveland or Washington seem like great spots and they match up well), as well as Watson to whoever is the most desperate for a closer down the stretch (Washington? Minnesota? Red Sox?), you could restock the farm with at least two Top 5 prospects and another two or three Top 25 guys.
Hanging onto guys way too long and becoming a perennial .500 team is the worst thing a club can do.
Completely agree. Start trading parts now before any of them suffer injury and/or their production deteriorates to a level where PIT gets little or no value in return.
you are getting 0 top 5 guys and maybe 1 top 25 guy for what you have. yanks aren’t dealing youth. the rest of the top 25 is teams who are rebuilding (atlanta, ChiSox).
They have to bring up Meadows after Super 2 to see what they have before Marte is back don’t they? Cutch has no trade value and isn’t worth his option next season. Sell him for 50 cents in the dollar and move on.
Trade Cole, Cutch, Watson, (and if you can) Stewart, Bastardo and Hudson.
Offer Nicasio a multi year deal.
Listen to offers on Harrison, sell high if you can, keep him if not.
Get Meadows into the lineup everyday. Same with Frazier.
Stop pulling Bell early in games.
Bring up a lot of the young arms (Brault, Kingham, if he rebounds, Glasnow) to fill in the bullpen spots.
Have no delusions that you are a real contender (or a Quintana away from it) and get the young guys into the lineup and develop/evaluate them. No more Jaso’s of the world.
Cross your fingers that Marte is the same player without PED’s.
This is what they have to do to do a retool instead of a full rebuild.
In side pitch did an interesting analysis on Cole & numbers going down when trade talks started on 5/21 in the 9 starts beforehand he hadn’t given up more than 2 runs in any start.
What happened to my post that I had today.why is it not there
Cowards