Let’s get this out of the way: Yu Darvish will be the best rental arm available, if he is marketed. But all indications are the Rangers won’t do that, barring a total collapse over the next ten days.
Assuming that Darvish isn’t within reach, teams with interest in renting a rotation piece will be looking at a decidedly less accomplished group of starters. (And no, I don’t consider Johnny Cueto a pure rental, even if he is still likely to opt out of his contract.) Here are the best such hurlers that seem reasonably likely to be available (in alphabetical order). Which do you think is the top target?
- Trevor Cahill, Padres: Like the other members of the Friars’ staff, the 29-year-old is quite affordable. He’s also sitting on a 3.14 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 through ten starts on the year, though he did miss time due to injury.
- Jhoulys Chacin, Padres: Chacin has been rather effective, with a 4.33 ERA thus far, and has also racked up 108 frames. He is also throwing as hard as ever with a 92 mph average fastball.
- Marco Estrada, Blue Jays: The results have been terrible, but Estrada has struck out 9.9 opposing hitters per nine and could represent quite an intriguing turnaround candidate.
- Scott Feldman, Reds: He’s hurt now, but had been quietly providing solid innings, as he has for most of his career. If he’s able to bounce back quickly from the DL, Feldman could be valued for his steadiness.
- Jaime Garcia, Braves: He’s earning a healthy $12MM salary, and has had his ups and downs, but has been quite good at times in the not-so-distant past.
- Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies: Hellickson was failing to get strikeouts for much of the year, but has ramped things up of late. He also has allowed 11 earned in his past 30 1/3 innings.
- Derek Holland, White Sox: It’s tough to sugarcoat Holland’s struggles since the calendar flipped to June, but he was carrying a 2.37 ERA to that point and has still mixed in some productive outings since.
- Francisco Liriano, Blue Jays: Likewise, Liriano has not produced results. But he’s still bringing 93 from the left side and can miss bats; perhaps an organization with some ideas on how to get him back to form could take a shot on the enigmatic southpaw.
Which pitcher do you prefer? (Link for mobile users.)
Lance Lynn
His team is 4.5 games back of first. They’re not likely to sell him since it would be like surrendering the season. He’s off the list for the same reason Darvish is.
I disagree. The Cardinals have a deep well of pitching depth they could plug into Lynn’s spot in the rotation. Weaver, Gonzales, Gant, Flaherty, Gallen or even Lyons could come up and take his spot without sacrificing much production. I figure the Cardinals could get an org top 5 from a team desperate enough
A top 5 for Lance Lynn? No way, jose.
An organization’s top 5. Depending on the organization. Top 100 overall. That’s what they’d have to get to make it worth it, otherwise they’ll just collect a sandwich pick in the draft. I’m not saying they’ll get it, but I think that’s what it would cost
Doubt they get a top 5 org piece. Otherwise the cardinals would definitely get rid of him
Agreed. Ship him out of St. Louis. Anywhere but the north side of Chicago, Cincinnati or Milwaukee. – Pirates fans
Lynn should be on the list. The Cards already said they could be sellers and buyers. They’ve got the players to replace Lynn fairly easy. He is the most likely piece to bring back something like Pitt did last year.
Where’s Lance Lynn?
And you have Clayton Richard in the poll, but say nothing about him.
Did you see him pitch today? 14 hits and 10 runs in 3.2 innings. Enough said.
I don’t care about Clayton Richard. I was just pointing out he was in the poll, yet nothing was written about him.
Day game in Colorado in July. Enough said.
Unless he comes up injured, today’s game won’t make much difference in his already low trade value.
It was in denver….yeah it was a bad start but he’s been solid this year! You can’t just look at one start!
Weird, I took Richard out of the poll (he was initially in it) and he’s not showing up on the back end. Not sure why it’s still coming through, but I decided I couldn’t really make a case for him (especially after today’s bombardment).
Where’s Lynn? On a team that still has a very plausible path to the postseason.
All indications seem to say that Lynn will be gone (judging from Goold’s reporting and commentary). We have a glutton of pitching waiting in the wings for that 5th rotation spot with Weaver, Lyons, Flaherty, and Gonzales all on deck.
Dewitt’s comments about being “dealers” at the deadline also seem to indicate that he’ll probably be gone.
Well I may have missed something from Goold, but I would trust his assessment. Will go poke around — I’m also working on the next top deadline target list.
You guys wrote an article about the Goold assessment, as well as mentioning a few other sources about Lance Lynn possibly being dealt. One of which you yourself wrote:
link to mlbtraderumors.com
“Goold writes that while the Cards have a desire to bolster this roster — specifically, by adding a middle-of-the-order bat and/or a shortstop — it’s also possible that they could at the same time sell off some short-term assets like Lance Lynn.”
I don’t really care about Clayton Richard, but I figured I’d point it out since he’s on the poll for some reason on our end.
I guess I read all of that as suggesting it’s a possibility — which I do think it is — but hardly indicating it’s particularly likely. Perhaps my view is driven by the fact that I don’t think Lynn is going to draw a really significant return. But it’s certainly debatable.
Re Richard, I have no idea why it still has him in there despite my efforts to remove him.
RIchards has his moments
Is he a tradable asset? No
Is Cahill ? Yes
Chacin? Maybe
Chacin has pitched well since the beginning of June. 8 starts and a 2.68 ERA. Might move him squarely into tradeable asset category.
His home and road split are gnarly. That’s why I list him as a maybe. Granted he has pitched good since mid June at home and in the road
Chacin is a legit back end starter for a play off team. No reason why someone won’t take a chance on him. Im sure the asking price wont be much as well!
So could Anibal Sanchez conceivably be traded for cash given his recent string of quality starts and the state that the starting pitching market is in?
Maybe – really depends what any given team’s scouts see. But I wouldn’t expect much in the way of cost savings, even.
Ok because I read in an article written by a local sportswriter that because of Anibals recent success he was tradable, but I find in most cases local writers are highly biased and often wrong or highly exaggerated. One of the reasons fans were so upset with the JD trade was that the local media was overstating JD’s interest and fans were to the point of expecting Alex Verdugo. In truth his defensive shortcomings handicapped his value(think Mark Trumbo). Since the odds of JV or Fulmer being traded is slim and Zimmerman nonexistent I want Sanchez’s rotation spot vacated so that Matt Boyd and Daniel Norris can both stay in the big leagues. Thanks for the info. Keep up the great work!!
P.S. Do you know if Shane Greene is garnering any interest?
My take isn’t definitive by any means, but I think it’d take more of a run to really make him appealing — and not just with some decent results, but some evidence of underlying changes to give cause to believe he may be resurgent.
Re JD, I think the D was a factor. Really, though, there’s just not a ton of demand, and local media isn’t always best positioned to assess that. Not that I nailed it either; he was #1 on my trade list. He’s a much better hitter than Trumbo. I’m still surprised no other teams really decided it was worth a bigger haul to add an elite bat.
Yeah JD is probably a more well-rounded hitter than Trumbo, and everyone wants to blame Ausmus and Avila for everything that goes wrong for the tigers I’m just trying to spread the blame around a little. Beyondtheboxscore had a pretty nice article on the JD deal on how the Dodgers and Red Sox had bigger needs and really didn’t need an OF, and the Rockies had to think twice about putting in a serious bid because of his defense in coors field. Other than that teams were probably just asking not offering. The trade looks ugly but Avila played it smart and I have a feeling he’ll dangle Wilson now and Fulmer at the meetings to get the premo prospects everyone is looking for.
Having JD Martinez and Mark Trumbo in the same conversation is an insult to JD. Trumbo hit 40 homers last year and was still pretty much replacement level
I could see the M’s and the Royals both as “suitors” for him as a cheap rebound candidate. That way Detroit can keep Boyd in the rotation and win back a little favor with the fan base and the majority of the media.
the link isn’t working, jeff. at least for me.. maybe it’s my phone lol
same here
Not working for me either, fun idea though guys
Should be fixed, sorry.
thanks
thanks!
i’d go with estrada out of this list
sonny is the best rental out there
He’s not a rental since he’s not a free agent at the end of the year.
Why does Sonny gray have such a higher trade value than Julio Teheran? Their per season averages are virtually identical, both have 3 years of control with Teheran having fixed rates and an option for his 3rd year where gray has arbitrition. Yeah, he’s been bad this year, but all of that has been at SunTrust… 2.50 road era in just 1 less start. Is it because his crap season is this year instead of last like gray?
Nice closed poll., there should be at least an “other”..
My answer is Lance Lynn.
Do yu want darvish on the phillies this offseason or in the next 2 weeks it does not look like it is going to be at the trade deadline but Pete the phillies manager says that at the deadline and offseason for 2018 the phillies are going to withhold their future with Bryce, manny and pitchers like Jamie Garcia the third class and jake arrieta the the second class or if you think he is a first class?
My vote goes to Hellickson. He doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but he probably has the highest floor.
I agree.
And the Phillies will pay a lot (all?) of his remaining salary. Hellickson was my vote.
Should be Acestrada easily, but he’s been awful this past month. I hope he can help a contender, he’s been amazing in the playoffs these past two years.
Out of these guys i’d probably take hellickson bcuz hes been good lately, has been healthy and won’t cost much to acquire even with the phils picking up the tab. That said, Lance Lynn is the best.
And the Rangers are foolish if they dont deal Darvish unless they lock him up. They are booking on a WC game because they arent winning that division
They should be shopping Darvish, Cashner and Hamels.
Don’t forget Cahill has a 56% GB rate with that K rate
Where’s the “they all suck” option?
Out of them all, I guess I would possibly feel most comfortable with the production of Jaime Garcia for the stretch (the salary is a prob tho) or maybe Estrada if my coaches thought they could get him back on track quickly (plus he’s been unlucky, so some regression to the mean might be seen naturally)
Cahill has been lights out… when he’s on the mound. He can be a relief pitcher on the playoffs as well, which is nice.
Estrada seems like a risky but interesting bounce back candidate, if the price is right, but the walks are to high for my taste.
Chacin can eat… innings, and Hellickson can, too.
Though to make an argument on the rest.
Maybe the Red Sox look to add Hand, Solarte, Cahill to counter the Yankees.
Groome, Chavis, Beeks, and another prospect for all 3 is about what it would take. They’re all cheap and Hand and Solarte come with extra team control.
Will the red sox deal with Preller? Maybe now that Pomeranz is killing it and Espinoza is on the shelf…
No one in there good enough or close enough to the majors. Padres need MLB ready or close to ready SS and starting pitching. Groome is in low A and not doing so good after the injury.
Where’s Lance Lynn?
I’d definitely go with Cahill based on his past relieving experience. He’d make a nice long man out of the bullpen in the playoffs when teams no longer use 5 man rotations.
Cake Arrieta
Jeremy Guthrie
Lynn is in record that he wants to remain a cardinal. Why can’t they do a verbal contract with him and then trade him for prospects and then resign him in off season? He’d be a huge get for a team that needs pitching. Durable innings eater and loads of playoff experience. He’s a 3-4 starter on most contenders
Um…..Sounds a little like collusion to me. Strictly a No-No (not the good kind).
Besides…..if he was willing to make a deal like that, then why trade him? Just extend him and be done with that. Yea, I know…..they’ll get a decent prospect for him. But they take a chance on missing the Playoffs if the “fill-in” doesn’t pitch well. Weaver didn’t light it up in his short visit. Lyons has been very spotty. The rest are unproven. Playoffs require veteran talent in the locker room & on the field. If they were further back, it’s a no-brainer.
Might be collusion, I don’t know. But was anyone surprised when Chapman went back to Yankees? They got Torres, among others, and got him back with nothing lost as they weren’t making playoffs with or without Chapman. Cards will make or not make the playoffs with Lynn or weaver (his likely replacement). Too many other things have to happen to get cards in playoffs to put it all on Lynn. So I’d sell Lynn with plans to resign him, gain prospect and get exposure for weaver to possibly gain value for future trade. I’d do this deal regardless if cards decide to “buy or sell”. History and recent comments say they will do neither. Seldom do they go big and “buy” seldom do they sell and punt season. Only recent instance of buying at deadline is Matt Holliday in 2009, can’t think of a time they “sold”. Maybe Colby Rasmus 2011? However that “sell” netted us key pieces to WS win. Cards fans are getting restless and expecting major moves such as machado, Stanton, Donaldson, etc. not the cardinal way. They need to trust process of success last 20 years. Everything goes in cycles, cards are in down cycle, but it won’t last long.
If Tigers throw in 20 million, JV becomes the best value and better than a rental.
Not really. He’s still owed about 70M, so even with that 20M whoever trades for him would be on the hook for 50M over the next couple years.
You can have Cahill for less than 1M for the rest of the season or Hellickson for 4M. Both have higher WARs than Verlander and they don’t come with a future commitment to a 35yr old pitcher.
I went with Garcia but would love to see the Sox get anything for Holland. The more the merrier when it comes to prospects. Doubt he gets traded though.
Liriano is the baseball equivalent of a time bomb.
When his starts go bad, they go really really bad. And now that teams have figured out his best pitches start in but finish out of the zone, they just wait him out.
Is none an option?
by definition, no. There has to be a “best rental starter”, at least for a specific measurement that is.
I would give any team Padres top prospect to take Richards!
I’ll drive him over my self!
Cahill is relief pitcher posing as starter
he’s averaging 5 2/3 per start. while that’s not “innings eater” material, it’s hardly a “relief pitcher posing as a starter”.
For anyone else too lazy to do the math: (rounded to nearest third of an inning)
Cahill 5 2/3 per start
Chacin 5 2/3
Estrada 5 2/3
Feldman 5 1/3
Garcia 6 1/3
Hellickson 5 2/3
Holland 5 1/3
Liriano 4 2/3
Not tons of difference in innings pitched per start for them.
Wrong
Wow that’s an awful lot. Yanks should see about Cueto. Big contract, bad results, maybe a few fringe prospects go back. They probably will not though in case he gets hurt doesn’t opt out Yanks will be stuck with bad contract.
The rentals are all uninspiring. Although I doubt they fetch much in return.
I couldn’t find my choice: “None of the Above.”