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Lance Lynn

AL Central Notes: Jimenez, Mejia, Dozier, Reyes, Lynn, Reyes

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The White Sox announced on Wednesday that they’ve optioned top outfield prospect Eloy Jimenez to Double-A Birmingham. The 21-year-old homered twice and hit a triple in nine spring plate appearances with the Sox, but he was never viewed as a candidate to break camp with the team. Jimenez has just 18 games of Double-A ball to his credit and has yet to play Triple-A, so he’ll head to the minors for additional development. The centerpiece of last summer’s Jose Quintana blockbuster with the crosstown Cubs, Jimenez figures to be a critical long-term piece on the South Side of Chicago, though ChiSox fans will likely have to wait at least a few months before getting a look at him in the Majors. That’s just fine with Jimenez, as Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com writes, though the youngster also made clear he thinks he is ready to play at the game’s highest level.

More from the division…

  • Another top prospect, Indians catcher Francisco Mejia, could actually end up seeing some action in the outfield as part of a plan to utilize him in the majors in the near term, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports. Mejia has previously been tried out at the hot corner, which Hoynes says “didn’t take,” so clearly the Cleveland organization isn’t fully committed to keeping him behind the dish. Regardless, he’s seen as a high-quality hitting prospect who could soon make an impact. The impression made by outfielder Abraham Almonte was not quite as positive, Hoynes notes, as he is not in shape and has already been optioned despite toting a $825K arb contract into camp.
  • At one point, Hunter Dozier of the Royals had that kind of lofty billing. But the eighth overall pick of the 2013 draft has seen his star fade over the years. As MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes, the organization now seems to see Dozier mostly as a first baseman, which doesn’t necessarily boost his long-term value outlook as he prepares to open the season at Triple-A. That said, the organization is obviously focused primarily on finding a path for Dozier to contribute to the majors. That won’t happen out of camp, but the 26-year-old remains one of the Royals’ better-regarded prospects. Injuries robbed him of a full 2017 season, though he did impress with a .296/.366/.533 overall slash in the upper minors in the prior campaign.
  • As many have observed, the Twins appear to be one of the prime beneficiaries of the collapse of free-agent demand this winter. Both Logan Morrison and Lance Lynn agreed to surprising one-year deals with Minnesota; as MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger reports, both elected to go there in no small part owing to the hope that their single season would be with a winning organization. While those two veterans surely anticipated quite a bit more earning power, it seems there are good vibes all around in Twins’ camp.
  • The Tigers are deliberating over the fate of Rule 5 pick Victor Reyes, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes. Skipper Ron Gardenhire says it’s “honestly a really big one” — decision, that is — for the rebuilding organization. It could come down to Reyes and fellow outfielder JaCoby Jones, who has had a strong spring but can still be optioned. Interestingly, Fenech says the Tigers tried and failed to get Reyes in the J.D. Martinez trade, despite the fact that he came available just months later via the Rule 5. Gardenhire discussed the matter at some length, noting that Reyes could be a functional player even though he’s clearly not quite as polished as would be hoped. “I know where we’re at as an organization,” said Gardenhire. “We’re talking about developing and all those things so I think I can use him.”

AL East Notes: Tulo, Axford, Clippard, Torres, O’s, Cobb, BoSox

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Blue Jays skipper John Gibbons signaled on Monday that Troy Tulowitzki won’t be ready for Opening Day, writes MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. “I think you can write Tulo off [for Opening Day] right now,” said Gibbons of his shortstop, who is currently dealing with a bone spur in his right heel. Tulo’s lack of availability likely means the Jays will carry just seven relievers to open the season Morosi notes, which will allow the team to bring four middle infielders — Devon Travis, Aledmys Diaz, Yangervis Solarte and Gift Ngoepe — when they break camp.

Meanwhile, both John Axford and Tyler Clippard are likely to make the Blue Jays’ bullpen after signing minor league deals, per Morosi. Gibbons praised a new two-seam fastball that Axford has been utilizing as well as improved control from the veteran righty. “What’s jumped out at me is he’s keeping that thing in the zone,” said Gibbons. “What little I’ve known in the past, at times he could scatter, but really that hasn’t happened at all this spring. That’s encouraging. And he still throws really, really hard.”

More from the AL East…

  • The Yankees announced today that top prospect Gleyber Torres has been optioned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The move doesn’t come as a huge surprise given the team’s signing of Neil Walker to a one-year deal and Torres’ struggles this spring as he makes his way back from Tommy John surgery in his non-throwing arm. Torres, who has just 55 games above Class-A Advanced under his belt and just 96 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, went 4-for-25 with seven strikeouts in Grapefruit League play. The 21-year-old will likely make his MLB debut with the Yankees at some point in 2018, and optioning him comes with the added benefit of pushing back his service clock to gain an extra year of club control (assuming he spends at least three weeks or so in the minors to open the season).
  • The Orioles spoke with Lance Lynn’s agents right up until the time he signed with the Twins, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. However, Lynn was seeking a two-year deal from the Orioles, whereas he agreed to a one-year, $12MM deal in order to join the Twins. Kubatko adds that the Orioles are of the impression that fellow right-hander Alex Cobb is also seeking a multi-year deal and that a contract comparable to Lynn’s pact with the Twins won’t get the job done.
  • The Red Sox would like to stash some MLB rotation depth at Triple-A but are having a tough time getting deals done, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston writes. Remaining hurlers are understandably interested in joining teams where they’ll have a reasonably achievable path to the Majors. Boston entered the winter with a rather full set of starters, though as Drellich notes, there’s increasingly more opportunity to offer with a variety of (hopefully) minor injuries cropping up. The Sox faced a similar struggle in attracting veterans on minor league deals last winter, Drellich notes.

Twins Sign Lance Lynn

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The Twins have continued their aggressive, late foray into the free-agent market, announcing on Monday that they’ve signed right-hander Lance Lynn to a one-year contract. He’ll earn $12MM, per the team, confirming previous reports on his salary. The deal reportedly allows Lynn to earn another $2MM worth of incentives — half each upon reaching 170 and 180 innings. Lynn, a client of Excel Sports Management, will get right going with the Twins and start their Grapefruit League Game against the Orioles tomorrow, per the team’s announcement.

Lance Lynn | USA Today Sports Images

The pact makes Lynn the latest victim of a slow-moving offseason in which a number of high-profile players have been forced to settle for one-year deals that look diminutive in comparison to those they were expected to receive. At the outset of the offseason, we ranked Lynn ninth on our list of the top 50 free agents, predicting that he’d receive $56MM over four years. More recently, our player profile for the righty suggested he could even achieve a $60MM deal. Obviously, the (relatively) meager $12MM guarantee from the Twins falls significantly short of those expectations. He’ll instead join Mike Moustakas, Logan Morrison, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gonzalez as players who were widely expected to merit hefty multi-year pacts but will ultimately be guaranteed less money than reliever Juan Nicasio.

As for the Twins, the deal comes as the latest move of an incredibly busy (and cost-efficient) offseason during which the club has managed to patch its rotation quite nicely. After missing out on Yu Darvish, to whom the club reportedly offered a nine-figure contract that would’ve shattered the club record, the Twins traded a low-profile prospect for Jake Odorizzi and have now gotten an incredible bargain on Lynn. Minnesota also managed to bring Morrison to Minnesota on just a $6.5MM deal with incentives and a vesting option. Though Lynn and Morrison were widely expected to command in the vicinity of $100MM in combined guarantees, the Twins will promise them a total of just $18.5MM. The club has also shored up their bullpen this winter by signing Addison Reed, Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney.

Lynn will join Odorizzi as a newcomer in the rotation, which will also eventually feature three holdovers in the form of Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson. Santana, however, will be out for as much as the first month of the season after undergoing surgery in February to repair an injury in his right middle finger. The increased number of off-days early in the season could cause the Twins to largely get by without a fifth starter in that time, though lefty Adalberto Mejia and veteran Phil Hughes (returning from his second thoracic outlet surgery) are among the on-hand options should a fifth starter be needed. The addition of Lynn likely pushes Tyler Duffey back to the bullpen and further lessens the organization’s need to rush top prospects Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves to the Majors.

[RELATED: Updated Minnesota Twins Depth Chart/Updated Minnesota Twins Payroll]

The 30-year-old rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals at the outset of the offseason, so the Twins will be forced to forfeit a 2018 draft pick after signing him. But because the Twins were revenue-sharing recipients in 2017 and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, that pick will be just their fourth-highest of the draft (number 95 overall). They’d normally be required to surrender their third-highest pick, but for Minnesota that’s a protected selection in Competitive Round B. For Lynn’s part, he’ll no longer be eligible to receive a qualifying offer next year thanks to a provision in the new CBA.

Lynn’s spent his entire career thus far with the Cardinals, who selected him with a supplemental first round pick in 2008. He reached the majors for the first time in 2011, and pitched his first full season in the majors the following year. From that point, he chucked 752 2/3 innings for the Redbirds (to the tune of a 3.39 ERA) across four seasons before tearing his UCL and undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2015. After returning to the mound to kick off the 2017 campaign, the righty made 33 starts and posted a 3.43 ERA.

Although it seems on the surface that he picked up right where he left off, pre- and post-Tommy John surgery Lynn don’t look like the exact same pitcher. While he boasted a career K/9 of 8.67 prior to going under the knife, his 2017 mark was a meager 7.39. Likewise, his 4.75 xFIP last season was almost exactly a full run higher than the 3.74 figure he owned prior to 2016. His control wasn’t quite as good either, as evidenced by a 3.77 BB/9 mark in 2017. His pre-Tommy John mark was just 3.35. These statistical red flags, along with a 0.6 MPH drop on his average fastball, may have been part of the reason teams were wary of giving him a long-term pact. Still, he’s at least got durability going for him; outside of 2016 he’s thrown at least 175 innings in each of his full major league seasons.

The Lynn deal seems to spell bad news for fellow right-hander Alex Cobb who remains on the free agent market. It’s tough to imagine that Cobb, who’s also one season removed from Tommy John surgery and owns similar career run-prevention numbers, will be able to substantially eclipse Lynn’s guarantee. With just under three weeks until Opening Day, it’ll be interesting to see what type of contract the top remaining free-agent starter can secure, especially in relation to his most statistically comparable open-market competitor.

FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported the two sides were close to a deal (via Twitter). MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter links). Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press tweeted details of the incentives. 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

East Notes: Lynn, Orioles, Rays, Marlins, Red Sox

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The Orioles had talks over the winter with then-free agent right-hander Lance Lynn, who finally exited the market Saturday when he agreed to sign with the Twins. Lynn ended up with a one-year, $12MM pact, but he perhaps could have gotten a longer deal in Baltimore. The Orioles may have been willing to give Lynn either three guaranteed years or two with a vesting option, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Lynn would have been the third (and likely the best) starter to sign with the Orioles in recent weeks. They previously added Andrew Cashner and re-signed Chris Tillman. There remains room for improvement, which general manager Dan Duquette realizes. “We need to find some answers to our pitching staff,” Duquette admitted to Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com as part of a Q&A that’s worth reading in full. While Duquette noted that “it’s getting kind of late in the spring training period for pitchers to get ready,” he’s nonetheless not ruling out adding another starter in free agency or via trade.

More from the East Coast…

  • The Rays aren’t exactly known for throwing money around, but they could find themselves in position to spend next winter, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times observes. Part of that will depend on whether some of their top prospects, including Willy Adames and Jake Bauers, emerge as hoped. If they do, and if the Rays retain Chris Archer and Kevin Kiermaier, they could have most of their roster in place for around $40MM, Topkin estimates, thus creating the possibility for some notable additions.
  • The only sure bets to crack the Marlins’ season-opening rotation are Dan Straily and Jose Urena, leaving 10 candidates for three spots, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes. “It could go down to the wire,” manager Don Mattingly said of the crowded race. Spencer goes on to highlight all 10 candidates, including prospect Sandy Alcantara – whom the Marlins acquired in their Marcell Ozuna trade with the Cardinals over the winter.
  • Former Mariners starter Roenis Elias has become somewhat of an afterthought since the Red Sox acquired him prior to 2016, but the left-hander could reemerge this year out of the bullpen. Elias is now working as a reliever, owing in part to a newfound commitment to using a sidearm delivery against same-sided hitters, per Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald. The only lefty reliever on Boston’s projected roster is Robby Scott, which could help give Elias a path back to the majors. After appearing in 51 games and making 49 starts from 2014-15 in Seattle, with which he pitched to a 3.97 ERA across 279 innings, Elias has only thrown eight frames in two years with the Red Sox. The 29-year-old spent nearly all of 2016-17 with Triple-A Pawtucket.

Central Notes: Moose, Duffy, Royals, Twins, Lynn, Brewers, Reds

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Before he re-signed with the Royals on Thursday, third baseman Mike Moustakas did not receive any other offers during his lengthy stay on the free agent market, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. The Angels reportedly offered Moustakas a three-year, $45MM contract, but that’s not the case, according to Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter link). It was an especially difficult trip to free agency for the 29-year-old Moustakas, who will make $5.5MM – $3.2MM less than last season – despite enjoying one of his best campaigns in 2017. Moustakas discussed his time on the market Saturday, telling Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com and other reporters that it was “frustrating.” Nevertheless, “it feels great” to be back with the Royals, he said.

More from KC and the majors’ Central divisions:

  • The Twins agreed to a one-year contract with right-hander Lance Lynn on Saturday, but they were willing to make a greater commitment to the ex-Cardinal during the winter. Minnesota offered Lynn a tw0-year pact then, per Nightengale (Twitter link). As with Moustakas, it was a shockingly underwhelming trek to free agency for Lynn, whose new accord guarantees him $12MM – far less than anticipated when free agency opened in November.
  • The Brewers were extremely active in upgrading their outfield during the offseason, as they added the star-caliber twosome of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. General manager David Stearns arguably didn’t do enough to bolster the team’s starting staff, on the other hand, having only signed the fairly cheap trio of Jhoulys Chacin, Yovani Gallardo and early spring success story Wade Miley. But Stearns seems largely content with the Brewers’ rotation options, he tells Richard Justice of MLB.com. “Because we don’t have a lot of names in our rotation, I think it’s easy to forget that our starting rotation was the strength of our team last year,” Stearns said. “One of the main reasons we got where we got was because of how good our starting rotation was, especially the second half, and all those guys are still here.” Milwaukee’s rotation was indeed among the league’s best in 2017 (eighth in fWAR, 10th in ERA), though that was thanks largely to emergent ace Jimmy Nelson, who will miss the first couple months of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery last September.
  • There has been “brisk” trade interest in left-hander Danny Duffy, a Royals official tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo expects interest in Duffy to increase, though he writes that Kansas City wants “major prospects” back for the 29-year-old. That’s not surprising from Kansas City’s perspective, as Duffy is arguably its best trade chip. Duffy, whom the Royals extended in 2017, is under contract through 2021 at a reasonable total ($60MM), including $14MM in 2018. He tossed 146 1/3 innings of 3.81 ERA/3.46 FIP ball with 8.0 K/9 against 2.52 BB/9 in 2017.
  • Reds lefty Joe Mantiply will undergo Tommy John surgery, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com tweets. Mantiply, 27, inked a minor league deal with the Reds in November after spending all of last season with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate and posting terrific numbers over 70 innings (2.83 ERA, 7.97 K/9, 2.31 BB/9 and a 49.3 percent groundball rate). His only MLB experience to date came during a 2 2/3-inning stint with the Tigers in 2016.

AL Central Notes: Lynn, Twins, Hahn, Jay, Indians

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The Twins’ recently reported two-year offer to Lance Lynn was for a total of $20MM, reports Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Lynn’s camp considered that offer a “non-starter,” however, according to Berardino. Minnesota remains open to adding a starter on an affordable and relatively short-term pact, Berardino continues, noting that outside of the team’s $100MM+ offer to Yu Darvish, all of their offseason free-agent dealings have been at one- or two-year terms. He adds that the Twins aren’t aggressively pursuing Alex Cobb, and given Lynn’s apparent unwillingness to consider a two-year term, it seems unlikely that Minnesota will ultimately be a landing spot for any of the top three remaining starters. There are still a few intriguing names on the market who could sign shorter-term deals, including John Lackey and Trevor Cahill, though the Twins haven’t been strongly tied to any of them.

More from the division…

  • The UCL sprain that landed Jesse Hahn on the 60-day disabled list may not wind up requiring surgery, reports MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan. Hahn, acquired by the Royals in the trade that sent Brandon Moss and Ryan Buchter to Oakland, felt a “twinge” in his arm during his last Cactus League outing and will be shut down for “several” weeks. Rather, Hahn will be re-evaluated after his shutdown and could then begin a throwing program. Hahn says he’s actually encountered a similar issue in the past but tried to pitch through it for five to six starts and wound up missing significant time. This time around, he raised the issue immediately.
  • Newly signed Royals outfielder Jon Jay spoke with reporters following the announcement of his one-year deal, voicing a willingness to play all over the outfield and, a bit more surprisingly, in the infield as well (link via Maria Torres and Pete Grahoff of the Kansas City Star). “I’m prepared to play all three outfield spots,” said Jay. “And you can sprinkle me in at first base if you need to. For me it’s simple: I’ll be ready to work.” Jay has exactly four innings of professional experience at first base and hasn’t played there since a two-inning appearance with the Cardinals’ Triple-A club back in 2010. With Lucas Duda on board, Jay certainly wouldn’t be viewed as any kind of regular option there, but his willingness to do so is at least of mild interest. Torres and Grahoff note that Jay could log some occasional innings at DH as well to get Jorge Soler and Jorge Bonifacio additional reps in the outfield.
  • Indians right-hander Julian Merryweather is also dealing with a sprained UCL in his pitching elbow, reports MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). He’s been shut down from throwing for the time being and is getting a second opinion from renowned surgeon Dr. Keith Meister. Merryweather, 26, made 16 starts and totaled 78 innings for Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate in Columbus last season, though he struggled to an ERA north of 6.00 (thanks in large part to a near-.400 BABIP). That rocky performance notwithstanding, he ranks 16th among Indians prospects, per MLB.com. Merryweather is on the 40-man roster, so if he’s expected to miss significant time, he could eventually land on the 60-day DL and free up a 40-man spot in Cleveland.

AL Notes: Orioles, Machado, Twins, Rays

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It doesn’t appear Orioles general manager Dan Duquette is planning to initiate extension talks with contract-year shortstop Manny Machado. “I would never say never, but we’re going to be more focused on ’18 than beyond,” Duquette told Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. “I don’t really know what’s going to happen beyond that.” Machado, Duquette, manager Buck Showalter, center fielder Adam Jones and relievers Zach Britton and Brad Brach are all scheduled to become free agents after the season, leading Duquette to admit to Feinsand that 2018 will be the last hurrah for this particular Orioles core. If he stays the GM into 2019, Duquette hasn’t closed the door on spending in free agency next winter, but he also isn’t dismissing the idea of a rebuild. Regarding a potential teardown, Duquette offered: “There is some logic toward doing that, right? You get the premium picks in the Draft and they can become the core players for your next championship club. A lot of this is timing; it’s cyclical.”

More from the AL…

  • The Twins are “unlikely” to sign any of the top remaining free agent starters – Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn – Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio hears (Twitter link). On paper, anyone from that group would bolster Minnesota’s rotation, which will go without injured No. 1 starter Ervin Santana to open the season, but the club hasn’t shown a willingness to meet their asking prices. Even without any of them on the books, the Twins are already on track to begin the year with a franchise-record Opening Day payroll (approximately $121.83MM).
  • Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is projected to start the year in the Rays’ rotation, but as a two-time Tommy John surgery patient, he faces long odds of making an impact, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times details. Only 31 other pitchers have made it back to the majors after undergoing a second Tommy John, which Eovaldi had as a Yankee in August 2016, while just 11 returned to start, per Topkin. That 11-man group (which Topkin lists) doesn’t offer a ton of hope, but Eovaldi is nonetheless banking on continuing as a starter. “I definitely want to be a starter and hold it out throughout the entire year,” he said. “As of now, we haven’t had any limitations, and we haven’t even talked about it.” The flamethrowing Eovaldi was a major league-caliber starter with the Dodgers, Marlins and Yankees from 2011-16, so it’s understandable that he and the Rays want to see him continue in that role. Although, his contract does include $2.375MM in relief incentives, Topkin notes.

Latest On The Top Remaining Free Agent Starters

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The Nationals reportedly remain open to adding to their roster before the season begins, and while they’ve been oft-linked to top remaining free agent Jake Arrieta, Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post reports that the Nats “haven’t engaged with Arrieta’s camp recently.” The Nationals, it seems (much like the rest of baseball), would be likelier to jump into the fray if Arrieta’s price drops.

Castillo does note that at least three other clubs have made recent inquiries with Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras. One of those is likely the Phillies, who are reported to have an ongoing dialogue with Boras regarding Arrieta. However, most reports out of Philadelphia suggest that the Phils are loath to go beyond three years for the former NL Cy Yong winner, who will pitch this season at age 32 and has displayed some signs of decline in recent years — most notably a loss of velocity and worsened K/BB rates.

Alternatives for the Nats, Phillies and other clubs searching for rotation upgrades are still on the market in the form of Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn, who both remain unsigned. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes, however, that the Phils are even less likely to sign Cobb or Lynn to a long-term deal than they are Arrieta (and again reports that the Phils don’t want to go past three years for Arrieta). Even a contract in the vicinity of Tyler Chatwood’s three-year, $38MM pact with the Cubs could be too rich for the Phillies’ tastes when it comes to Lynn and Cobb, Zolecki writes.

It seems that virtually every club in need of rotation help is awaiting the asking price on the top three starters to drop. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweets that both Cobb and Lynn are still seeking guarantees worth more than $50MM. (It’s worth pointing out that the manner in which that report frames draft compensation is inaccurate; the draft/international penalty for signing any of Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn is not tied to that $50MM figure, but a deal of $50MM or more would improve the compensation for the teams losing those players.)

The Orioles, Brewers, Phillies and Twins all hold varying levels of interest in Cobb and/or Lynn, Bowden notes, but not at the current asking price. The Twins’ level of interest in Lynn doesn’t appear to be especially high at this point, though. While Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN walks back a recent report a bit by tweeting that Minnesota’s offer to Lynn was for more than the $12MM he initially reported, he adds that it was nonetheless well shy of anything his camp considered and that there are no current talks between the two sides.

Market Notes: Upton, Archer, Realmuto, Holland, Lynn

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Over at The Athletic, Pedro Moura held a fascinating conversation with Angels slugger Justin Upton. (Subscription link.) There’s plenty of interest in the chat, though Upton’s comments on free agency are of particular interest and relevance. The thrust of his sentiment is that teams seem to be looking to score free-agent value rather than identifying and “courting” players they actively wish to employ. “Teams don’t value players as people anymore,” says Upton. “They value them as a number on a sheet of paper.”

Of course, Upton forewent a chance at returning to the open market by agreeing to a deal with an organization he was comfortable with. Here’s the latest on the unusually high number of quality free agents still not in camp and other market notes:

  • The likelihood remains that the Rays will enter the season with Chris Archer on the staff, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports among other notes. That’s due in no small part to the team’s lofty asking price; one rival executive suggests that the Tampa Bay front office “wanted our whole farm system” to move Archer. The club has given that impression publicly, too. Senior VP of baseball ops Chaim Bloom reiterated that the expectation is to hang onto Archer and others in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). He added that the internal expectation is that it will begin to reap the rewards of an effort over recent years to bolster the farm depth while still trying to compete at the MLB level.
  • It has remained interesting to consider whether the Nationals might pry catcher J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins. But there isn’t much recent indication of serious talks, and Heyman indicates that’s due to what seems to be a big gulf in the sides’ valuations. Washington won’t give top prospects Victor Robles and Juan Soto, per the report; while the club might part with young infielder Carter Kieboom or outfielder Michael Taylor, it seems Miami was asking for too much additional talent to be included in a package.
  • The outfield market has certainly delivered some surprises thus far. Heyman says Jarrod Dyson spurned an early two-year, $14MM offer, though a source tells MLBTR that is not accurate. Dyson ultimately signed for $7.5MM with the Diamondbacks. It remains to be seen what’ll happen with players such as Carlos Gonzalez and Jon Jay, each of whom were rated among the fifty best free agents this winter by MLBTR. Heyman says the Indians are still looking at right-handed outfield bats, though it would surely be a surprise for the team to plunk down any meaningful money to make an addition. Perhaps the trade route could still hold some surprises, though that’s pure speculation on my part.
  • Veteran reliever Greg Holland might have overplayed his hand in spurning the Rockies earlier in the winter. Colorado was willing to give him something approaching the three-year, $51MM deal the team ultimately inked with Wade Davis, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests in an appearance on the podcast of Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. It’s premature, perhaps, to declare that Holland won’t be able to top that number, though it’s frankly difficult to see where that level of interest might come from — as MLBTR’s Steve Adams has recently explained.
  • Holland’s list of suitors is in question at the moment. One thing that seems clear, per Heyman, is that the Cubs aren’t planning on making a surprise run at the closer. Rather, Chicago seems largely committed to utilizing Brandon Morrow in the ninth inning and is likely to hold back its remaining payroll reserves for potential mid-season additions.
  • So, how low could the remaining pitchers go? Presumably there’s a point at which some bidding would occur. But it’s notable that, per ESPN 1500’s Darren Wolfson (podcast link), the Twins expressed interest in Lance Lynn in the range of just $10MM to $12MM over two seasons. Just how that level of interest came about and was expressed isn’t clear. The team has also made some fairly notable recent commitments and may just not have much more payroll flexibility. And it certainly shouldn’t be taken as evidence of Lynn’s current market value. Still, it’s interesting to learn that’s the current extent of Minnesota’s interest.

Phillies Have Had Recent Contact With Lance Lynn

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March 1: The Phillies have at least “entertained” the possibility of signing two of the remaining starters, Morosi tweets, though he notes that such a scenario is unlikely.

Feb. 28, 11:48pm: The Phillies have had recent contact with Lance Lynn and his agents at Excel Sports, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, though Morosi notes that the two sides aren’t close to an agreement at this time. Philadelphia, of course, has been said to be monitoring the free-agent market for starters for the bulk of the offseason, most prominently being linked to Jake Arrieta.

While the Phils haven’t been oft-connected to Lynn, there’s little surprise to the fact that they’re keeping tabs on his asking price and at least generally monitoring his market. Beyond top starter Aaron Nola, the Phillies have little in the way of rotation certainty, after all. Jerad Eickhoff and Vince Velasquez seem likely to break camp in the rotation, but Eickhoff struggled through a lackluster 2017 season while Velasquez was limited by injuries and ineffective when healthy. Both showed considerably more promise in 2016, though, and the general lack of experience throughout the remainder of the roster should give them spots.

Other options for the Phillies include Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin, Jake Thompson, Ben Lively and Mark Leiter, though none from that bunch turned in an especially encouraging 2017 season — at least at the big league level. Drew Hutchison is easily the team’s most experienced non-roster invitee in camp, and he could conceivably force his way into the mix as well.

Suffice it to say, there’s plenty of room to add an established veteran to the Phils’ starting corps. GM Matt Klentak and president Andy MacPhail have hardly shied away from free-agent spending this offseason, bringing in Carlos Santana (three years, $60MM), Tommy Hunter (two years, $18MM) and Pat Neshek (two years, $16.25MM) in addition to Hutchison’s non-guaranteed deal. Lynn would represent a fourth notable multi-year signing, though at this stage in the offseason and with a seemingly tepid market for his services, it’s possible that he could be had at a lower rate than many pundits expected when he rejected a $17.4MM qualifying offer from the Cardinals.

That he rejected said QO, of course, means that the Phillies will lose more than just money by signing him. Bringing Lynn into the organization would require the team to forfeit its second-highest remaining draft pick as well as $500K worth of international bonus allotments. The Phillies already sacrificed their second-round pick by signing Santana, who also rejected a QO, so signing Lynn (or Arrieta or Alex Cobb) would require them to surrender their third-round selection while seeing their league-allotted international bonus pool reduced by another $500K.

The 30-year-old Lynn (31 in May) returned from Tommy John surgery in 2017 to throw 186 1/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball in 33 starts for the Cardinals. The surface-level numbers are impressive, but Lynn’s 7.4 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9 and 27.2 percent chase rate were all career-worsts. His .244 BABIP was the lowest mark among all qualified big league starters as well, while his 79 percent strand rate was tied for the ninth-highest. His four-seam fastball also sat at just 91.8 mph — down roughly a mile an hour from his peak years. For a pitcher who threw his heater a stunning 81.1 percent of the time in 2017 — 12.4 percent higher than the next pitcher on the list — that’s a troubling trend.

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