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Archives for August 2017

Nationals Over Luxury Tax Threshold

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While the Nationals have a history of putting some finishing touches on their roster in August (e.g. Marc Rzepczynski, Matt Thornton), a significant/expensive addition isn’t likely to be in the cards, reports Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. Per Janes, the Nats have crossed over the luxury tax threshold for the first time in franchise history.

[Related: Washington Nationals depth chart and payroll outlook]

The Nationals opened the season with a payroll close to $170MM, though the luxury tax is calculated in terms of the average annual value of those contracts, so backloaded contracts like Stephen Strasburg ($15MM in 2017 but $25MM average annual value) count more toward the luxury tax. Additionally, the Nats took on the likes of Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle,  Howie Kendrick and Brandon Kintzler in July.

As Janes notes, the Nats will pay a 20 percent tax on their overage as a first-time offender. The exact figure of the Nats’ luxury tax payroll remains to be seen, but their overage will fall into the $0-20MM bracket, so it’s hardly dire from a purely financial standpoint. There are other factors worth noting as well, though.

Firstly, if the Nationals exceed the luxury tax for a second time in 2018 by a similar margin they’ll be taxed at a 30 percent rate instead of a 20 percent rate. Secondly, if the Nationals elect to pursue a free agent that has rejected a qualifying offer this offseason, they’ll now face a steeper penalty for signing him. The new collective bargaining agreement stipulated that luxury tax payers will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year’s draft and will also lost $1MM from their league-allotted international bonus pool.

The Nats are in the metaphorical “penalty box” when it comes to the international market anyhow, so the loss of pool money isn’t a significant hindrance, as they can’t sign any individual player for more than $300K anyhow. But, exceeding the luxury tax could make it a bit more costly in terms of draft compensation if the team wishes to pursue Greg Holland or Wade Davis in free agency — both of whom look like potential QO candidates.

The Nats do have the contracts of Kendrick, Kintzler, Jayson Werth, Joe Blanton, Oliver Perez, Stephen Drew, Chris Heisey, Adam Lind and Jose Lobaton coming off the books following the 2017 season. Werth alone will account for $18MM of luxury tax relief, and that group as a whole will bring more than $35MM of relief. With Anthony Rendon, Tanner Roark and Michael Taylor representing the only three players in line for arbitration raises, the Nats should be able to dip back under the threshold even with some offseason additions on the free-agent market this winter.

Minor MLB Transactions: 8/4/17

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Here are Friday’s minor moves from around baseball…

  • Left-hander David Rollins has been released by the Cubs, per the organization’s Triple-A affiliate (on Twitter). Rollins garnered plenty of headlines this offseason when he was claimed off waivers five different times and designated for assignment a sixth time in one offseason before finally clearing waivers and being assigned to the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate in Iowa. He struggled there this season, though, totaling 42 innings with a 5.79 ERA, 8.4 K/9 and 5.1 BB/9. He posted a much better year with the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate in 2016 (3.77 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 1.2 BB/9) and also has 34 1/3 innings of experience in the Majors — all coming with Seattle from 2015-16.
  • The Orioles announced last night that infielder Johnny Giavotella has cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Norfolk.  The 30-year-old Giavotella made a brief cameo with the O’s appearing in seven games and totaling just 10 plate appearances in that time. He’s had a nice season in Norfolk thus far, hitting .306/.368/.441 in 379 plate appearances. He also spent the 2015-16 seasons receiving the bulk of the Angels’ play at second base, though he posted a modest .267/.305/.375 slash through 869 plate appearances in that time.

Health Notes: DeSclafani, Cozart, Hughes, Bandy

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The Reds received concerning news today on righty Anthony DeSclafani. As Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports, the rehabbing starter was pulled from his outing after experiencing discomfort in his forearm (and after surrendering eight runs on eight hits in the first inning). DeSclafani has been working back from a strained ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow. He had only just progressed to game action after a long layoff; that he is now experiencing forearm discomfort — which is often connected with elbow issues — is certainly discouraging.

  • There were more promising developments for the Reds, too. Shortstop Zack Cozart could be read to return from the DL as soon as Saturday, manager Bryan Price tells reporters including Buchanan (via Twitter). The 31-year-old’s balky quad took him out of consideration for a deadline-day deal, though a lack of demand has been the larger problem. Still, the sooner he is able to return to show his health, the more likely it is that Cincinnai will ultimately be able to find some kind of worthwhile swap involving the veteran.
  • Twins righty Phil Hughes will very likely need surgery that’ll end his season, manager Paul Molitor told reporters including Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (via Twitter). The 31-year-old has been weighing a procedure to further address ongoing symptoms of thoracic outlet syndrome. Meanwhile, it seems lefty reliever Glen Perkins is still pushing to return before the year is up. Berardino tweets that he’s expecting to move up to Double-A after making an appearance tonight.
  • The Brewers may not be able to count on catcher Jett Bandy down the stretch. As Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal tweets, the 27-year-old has been diagnosed with a fractured rib. It is not immediately clear how much time he’ll miss, though anything but a fairly rapid return could spell the end of his season. With Stephen Vogt also out, Andrew Susac is the only healthy 40-man alternative to join Manny Pina on the MLB roster. But Susac himself only just made it back from injury woes, and it’s possible Milwaukee could end up checking into the market for alternatives.

Deadline Retrospective: How Astros Lost Britton; Why Padres Held Hand

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The Astros’ lone move this past Monday was the acquisition of Francisco Liriano from the Blue Jays, but multiple reports indicate a significant reason for their lack of activity is due to the fact that an agreed-upon deal for Zach Britton fell through at the eleventh hour. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (here and here), MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal, and FanRag’s Jon Heyman each reported key aspects of the story. You’ll certainly want to read those links in full for all the interesting details, but we’ll cover some highlights here.

Astros owner Jim Crane said in a radio interview with ESPN 97.5 in Houston that his team had multiple trades that were “agreed to in principle” before medical issues led to those deals getting “vetoed at the top.” The Orioles are known to have the most stringent medical standards of any team in the league, though it’s also interesting that Rosenthal reports that Houston also had a deal lined up for an unidentified “high-end” reliever that would have “surprised the industry” upon being traded.

Per Kubatko and Rosenthal, the Britton deal broke down when the Orioles raised medical concerns over two of the players in the deal — believing one to have a “legitimate medical problem” and deeming another to be somewhat questionable. The identity of the prospects in question isn’t known, though Kubatko says the pair were both pitchers and Rosenthal hears that as many as six to seven Astros prospects were deemed off-limits in trade talks for Britton. Ultimately, the Orioles “went dark” on both the Astros and the Dodgers, who were also in the mix for Britton, for several hours before simply telling L.A. that Britton was off the table about an hour prior to the deadline, Rosenthal continues. Baltimore made a last-minute offer to Houston, but the Astros deemed it too steep.

Heyman writes that while many will place the blame on Baltimore owner Peter Angelos, Orioles officials insisted to him that the medical reports on the players the O’s would have received of great enough concern that no deal was ever even presented to Angelos. Heyman spoke to multiple execs from other teams that suggested Houston is too stingy when it comes to surrendering its top prospects in a deal, and that penchant for hanging onto prized young talent ultimately led to a quiet deadline for GM Jeff Luhnow and his staff.

Of course, the Astros had plenty of reason to be cautious when it comes to Britton. The once-elite reliever has missed most of the 2017 season due to a pair of DL stints tied to a forearm injury and at the time of the deadline had only worked back-to-back days once since being activated off the DL (and once during a minor league rehab stint). He posted an 8-to-4 K/BB ratio in 10 July innings before the non-waiver deadline, though it’s perhaps worth noting that he did work on a third consecutive evening the night of the deadline.

Houston did, of course, have other irons in the fire — including the intriguing mystery reliever noted by Rosenthal as well as Yu Darvish. Indeed, it seems the former only fell through at the ownership level from the other team. And Houston’s front office felt it made a stronger offer for Darvish than did the Dodgers, says Rosenthal, who notes the Rangers simply didn’t see it that way (the front office had authority to deal the righty within the state).

Brad Hand of the Padres, though, seemingly represented the most obvious alternative to Britton — at least, after the Cubs grabbed Justin Wilson, in part owing to a wariness of dealing with the O’s on deadline day. But Houston and San Diego just never saw eye to eye on the southpaw’s value, per Rosenthal and Heyman.

Sources from the Pads indicate the club ultimately backed away from seeking top-100-type talent, though not all rival executives seem to have viewed it that way. It seems that San Diego did at least check down from the top-tier prospects it initially sought, though obviously there was still a gap that was never bridged. Details remain scant, though Rosenthal notes the Astros held the same six prospects off-limits for Hand that they did for Britton; per Heyman, the Nationals were no more willing to discuss Carter Kieboom than their top outfielder prospects and the Dodgers preferred cheaper options even though the Padres would’ve taken a package of multiple prospects outside of the Dodgers’ five best.

Ultimately, the fact that both Britton and Hand stayed with their respective organizations leaves some potentially un-done work for all involved. The Astros obviously had intended to do more at the deadline, and could look to find alternatives this August. There’s also an impact on their plans for 2018 and beyond. That’s all the more true for the Orioles and Padres, who’ll likely shop their lefties this winter.

MLBTR Mailbag: Camargo, Ellsbury, Pirates, International Money

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Thanks for sending your questions in this week. Remember, you can also throw inquiries at our writers in our weekly chats. I host mine at 2pm CST on Tuesdays, Jason Martinez goes at 6:30pm CST on Wednesdays, and you’ll find Jeff Todd at 2pm CST on Thursdays.

“Coming up through the Braves system Johan Camargo was primarily known solely for his defense. He carried with him the ability to hit for contact, but that was about it, from an offensive standpoint. Even taking into consideration the small sample size and all, is Camargo’s early success sustainable? And also, I’m just curious, but should the Braves consider trading Johan Camargo over the off-season?” — Richard C.

I don’t think it’s all that sustainable. Camargo’s sporting a .371 BABIP that is 30 points higher than his mark in a small sample at Triple-A this year and nearly 60 points higher than the .317 mark he had in a full season at Double-A in 2016. He’s doing so despite the fact that his 27.2 percent hard-contact rate is more than five percent worse than the league average. Camargo doesn’t make much hard contact — there are more than 200 players with a higher average exit velocity than his 87.3 mph — and he hasn’t shown much in the way of discipline. He’s posted a 4.4 percent walk rate and a 36 percent chase rate on pitches out of the strike (league average this year is 29.8 percent).

Maybe he’s a useful utility player moving forward, but I can’t imagine him displacing Swanson or Albies as a long-term piece in the middle infield. (Camargo is at .302/.331/.477 through 182 PAs to Swanson’s .273/.330/.406 through his first 183 career PAs at a younger age and without any Triple-A development.) I also can’t envision any team parting with a significant haul to get him based on roughly two months of largely BABIP-fueled production. His bat is already coming back down to earth; it’ll take signs of more sustainable improvement to buy into him as a future regular.

“How much salary would the Yankees need to eat if Jacoby Ellsbury were willing to accept a trade to the Giants and what type of return could the Yankees expect to get back for him? I figure if the Yankees make the Giants responsible for $5-7M annually they can probably get an organizational 10-20 prospect maybe?” — Stan L.

Lots and lots of Ellsbury questions in this mailbag, which isn’t surprising with the way Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks and Clint Frazier have played.

To be blunt: I don’t think there’s any way the Yankees could get a respectable prospect from any system, even if they eat as much of the contract as you said. Ellsbury isn’t playing like he’s worth that sum at this point, hitting .187/.291/.240 through 87 plate appearances since returning from the disabled list. If he were coming back from a rolled ankle or a strained quad, perhaps that’d be easier to overlook, but he’s returning from a concussion that shelved him for about a month.

Getting a even a mid-range prospect from another organization would imply that the hypothetical trading partner feels there’s some level of surplus value in what they’re acquiring, thus justifying the exchange of an asset with modest value. But there’s just no surplus value even in a three-year commitment to Ellsbury (2018-20), even at the relatively modest levels you posit, when he’s set to turn 34 next month and is struggling to this extent following a concussion. Even if he were healthy, the asking price you laid out would be steep. Besides, the Giants are going to look to get younger in the outfield rather than adding another aging veteran to pair with Denard Span and Hunter Pence.

“Any chance the Pirates try to move Andrew McCutchen as an August waiver trade in order to avoid having to make the decision on whether to pick up his 2018 option?  If so, what value do they likely get back in return?” — Scott K.

I can’t see any way that McCutchen would be traded in August, because he’d never make it through waivers. Even if the Pirates don’t want to pay him $14.5MM in 2018 — which would be a surprise, given how excellent he’s been over the past few months — they could just pick up the option and trade him anyhow. They got legitimate interest in him last year when he was expensive and coming off the worst year of his career. He’d draw similar or greater interest this winter following a rebound at the plate.

“Could you give a refresher on how the international pool money works? I saw that the Yankees acquired $1.5M from the A’s in International Pool Money, doesn’t seem like much (compared to contracts) but I’m sure I’m missing out on a key piece. Do teams not just bid for the right to negotiate now?” — Nathan C.

You’re probably thinking of the posting system for international professionals — players like Masahiro Tanaka, Yu Darvish, etc. The Yankees acquired $1.5MM that will go toward their league-allotted pool from which they can sign international amateurs — that is, players that are under the age of 25 and/or have fewer than five years of pro experience in a foreign league. Most international amateurs are signed as teenagers and come with little fanfare at the time, though the Yankees have strongly built up their system via aggressive spending on that front.

The newest collective bargaining agreement placed a hard cap on how much teams can spend on international amateurs, with allotted pools ranging from $4.75MM to $5.75MM. The Yankees, as a team that is not a part of the Competitive Balance Lottery (due to market size and revenue), began the current international signing period with a bonus pool of $4.75MM. The money they picked up from the A’s in the Sonny Gray trade and from the Orioles in the Yefry Ramirez trade will add to that pool. (Teams can acquire up to 75 percent of their original allotment.) Many are also wondering whether this cash could help the Yanks if they pursue Shohei Otani (should he attempt to move to the majors this winter); the answer is yes, although the extent to which bonus money availability will sway his decision isn’t yet known.

Tigers Place Michael Fulmer On 10-Day DL

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The Tigers have placed prized righty Michael Fulmer on the 10-day DL, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports. He has been diagnosed with ulnar neuritis in his right elbow.

While any elbow-related issue is always cause for some concern, there’s no reason to think there is any structural problem here. As manager Brad Ausmus noted, it is sometimes necessary to treat this issue with surgery — see, e.g., here — but that’s not currently an option. Regardless, there is no reason to think the nerve issue could balloon into a larger issue.

For the time being, Fulmer will simply take a week off while receiving treatment for inflammation. The idea, he says, is “to give me time to let the nerve calm down a little bit.” Fulmer added that he has experienced these symptoms — “numbing and tingling in the last two fingers” — for some time, but never previously during a game.

Fulmer, 24, will hope to bounce right back onto the mound after a brief layoff, though surely the club will be watching closely and won’t take any chances. After all, he is one of the best young starters in baseball. Fulmer has thrown 299 1/3 innings of 3.31 ERA ball since the start of the 2016 season, and won’t qualify for arbitration until after the 2018 season — when he’s lined up to be a Super Two.

Minor MLB Transactions: 8/3/17

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Here are Thursday’s minor moves from around the game…

  • Per an announcement from the Indians, righty Perci Garner has been released after clearing waivers. Garner was designated for assignment recently. The 28-year-old cracked the majors briefly last year and showed well in the minors, but he has missed a lot of time in 2017 for injury reasons that remain less than clear. When he has pitched, his control issues have resurfaced. Through 14 1/3 Double-A frames, Garner permitted nine walks but also rang up 18 strikeouts while allowing five runs on only seven hits. But he managed to permit seven earned runs on only one hit in his three appearances at Triple-A, owing to eight free passes in just 1 1/3 innings.
  • The Marlins have acquired outfielder Eury Perez from the Pirates, per an announcement from the Indianapolis Indians. Perez had been playing for Indianapolis, the Bucs’ top affiliate, since joining the organization on a minors deal over  the winter. He has been productive at the plate (.336/.400/.433) continued to run wild on the bases (22 steals) in a fifty game sample. Perez has seen MLB action in four seasons, though he has just 156 total plate appearances — with a poor .254/.307/.282 batting line — at the game’s highest level.
  • The Tigers are set to select the contract of veteran right-hander Edward Mujica, reports SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (on Twitter). The 33-year-old hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2015, as he’s spent the past season plus between the Triple-A affiliates for the Phillies, Royals, Twins and Tigers. The former Cardinals closer has generally been excellent in Toledo this season, though, logging 46 innings with 7.4 K/9, 1.0 BB/9 and a 36.5 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.35 earned run average. He’ll join a Tigers ’pen that has an MLB-worst 5.18 ERA and recently traded its best reliever, Justin Wilson.

Brewers Outright Wily Peralta, Kirk Nieuwenhuis

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The Brewers announced today that right-hander Wily Peralta and outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis have both cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Colorado Springs.

The 28-year-old Peralta was designated for assignment on Saturday, and Milwaukee was apparently unable to find a taker for him in any trade talks that may have occurred. No team felt comfortable claiming the remaining $1.4MM on his $4.275MM salary, either, so Peralta will return to the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate.

While the fact that Peralta has more than three years of Major League service time allows him to refuse the outright assignment, the fact that he has fewer than five years of service also means that he would forfeit that remaining $1.4MM in order to hit the free-agent market. Peralta will earn that $1.4MM through season’s end whether he’s on the 40-man roster or not, but if he isn’t on the 40-man at the end of the year, he’ll have the right to elect free agency.

It’s been a tough year for Milwaukee’s former Opening Day starter. Peralta posted a 6.08 ERA with a 32-to-17 K/BB ratio through eight starts this season before losing his spot in the rotation and heading to the bullpen. While his strikeout rate and velocity ticked up working in relief, his walk rate also ballooned. Ultimately, Peralta surrendered 23 earned runs on 28 hits and 15 walks in just 17 1/3 frames out of the Brewer bullpen.

As for Nieuwenhuis, the veteran outfielder spent most of the 2016 campaign on the Brewers’ big league roster but has just 16 games and 31 plate appearances to his credit thus far in 2017. He’s hit just .115/.268/.269 in that time, though he’s a career .221/.311/.384 hitter in parts of six big league seasons. He’s in a similar situation to Peralta in that he agreed to a split deal this past winter that reportedly pays him $900K in the Majors and $257K in the minors (each pro-rated). He’d have forfeited the remainder of that contract had he gone the free-agent route.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLBTR Mailbag

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We’re bringing back the MLBTR mailbag for the month of August — which could be a busy one with many potential candidates to be traded. (Read more on how August trades work.) Send your questions on recent swaps, trades that could still take place in the coming month, or any other topic to mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com, and we’ll answer as many as we can.

Remember, you can also pose questions to our writing team during our three weekly live chats — Tuesdays at 2pm CST with Steve Adams, Wednesdays at 6:30pm with Jason Martinez, and Thursdays at 2pm with Jeff Todd.

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