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The Top Unsigned Left-Handed Relievers

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Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in about two weeks but a slow offseason means there are still plenty of free agents out there. Over the past week, MLBTR has already taken a look at the remaining catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops, center fielders, corner outfielders designated hitters and starting pitchers. Next up, we’ll run through some of the top remaining left-handed bullpen options out there.

  • Wandy Peralta: From 2021-23, Peralta logged 153 innings of 2.82 ERA ball with a 21% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and huge 56.5% ground-ball rate as a member of the Yankees’ bullpen. In addition to keeping the ball on the ground at a strong clip, Peralta manages hard contact quite well. He’s been in the 88th percentile or better in opponents’ average exit velocity in each of the past four seasons, per Statcast. Peralta had some uncharacteristic command struggles in ’23. His walk rate jumped from 7.6% to 13.6%, and he plunked a career-high six batters — as many as he’d hit over the four previous years combined. Still, the track record is good, he kept his ERA below 3.00 even with the shaky command, and at 32 he’s younger than most of the other southpaws available. Both the Yankees and Mets have been reported to have interest, but there are surely quite a few other teams who’d be happy to plug him into the bullpen.
  • Brad Hand: Hand, 34 in March, posted a 4.54 ERA in 35 2/3 innings with the Rockies before getting rocked for a 7.50 mark in 18 innings following a trade to the Braves. That was due largely to an alarmingly low 49% strand rate — a mark so low that it’s assuredly fluky. (Hand’s career 73% strand rate is right around the league average.) Hand had his best strikeout and walk rates since 2020 last season, whiffing a quarter of opponents against a 9.3% walk rate. He was one of MLB’s premier relievers from 2016-20 (2.70 ERA, 104 saves, 33.3% strikeout rate), and while those days are probably in the past, he posted serviceable or better ERA marks in 2021-22. Hand will probably command another affordable one-year deal.
  • Jake Diekman: Diekman has never had even close to average command, but despite the fact that he has only once posted a walk rate under 11%, he’s still caved out a nice 12-year MLB career. He’s 37 now, but the southpaw’s 95.6 mph average heater in 2023 was a dead match for his average velocity over the preceding seven seasons. Diekman was rocked in 11 1/3 innings with the White Sox to begin the year but — stop me if you’ve heard this one before — completely turned things around upon being picked up by the Rays. In 45 1/3 frames, Diekman recorded a sparkling 2.18 ERA while striking out 28.6% of his opponents. Diekman throws hard, keeps the ball on the ground and misses plenty of bats, but command will always be an issue for him. A big league deal could still be in the cards for him.
  • Aaron Loup: There’s no getting around Loup’s ugly year in 2023, when he posted a 6.10 ERA with his lowest strikeout rate since 2014 and highest walk rate since 2017. But Loup has an extensive track record at the big league level, including a terrific run from 2017-22 when he notched a tidy 3.06 ERA in a combined 241 innings across six seasons. Now 36 years old, Loup will look to bounce back to prior form — presumably with a new team. To his credit, Loup kept the ball on the ground at a strong 46.6% clip and still had a nice opponents’ batted-ball profile, per Statcast (87.9 mph average exit velocity, 37.2% hard-hit rate). Last year’s sky-high .373 average on balls in play undoubtedly drove up his ERA. Metrics like FIP (4.36) and SIERA (4.33), while still not painting a great picture, were far kinder to Loup than his more rudimentary ERA.
  • Jarlin Garcia: Garcia didn’t throw a single pitch in 2023 due to a nerve issue in his biceps. However, he only just turned 31 years old on Jan. 18 and enjoyed very strong results from 2019-22. In that time, the lefty tossed 202 2/3 innings of 2.89 ERA ball between Marlins and Giants. Garcia averages 93.4 mph on his heater, and while his 21.6% strikeout rate from ’19-’22 was a couple percentage points shy of average, his 7.2% walk rate was better than average and he kept the ball on the ground at a solid 42.1% clip. Garcia has benefited from low BABIPs and playing his home games in cavernous settings, but he’s still a capable middle reliever who’d be a lock for a big league deal if not for last year’s injury. He won’t be game-ready for the start of spring training but recently resumed throwing and is expected to be back on a mound around May 1.

Honorable mentions: Joely Rodriguez, Richard Bleier, Amir Garrett, Justin Wilson

Braves Decline Mutual Option On Brad Hand

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The Braves announced that they have declined their end of Brad Hand’s $7MM mutual option for the 2024 season.  Hand will instead receive a $500K buyout.  The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Justin Toscano reported earlier today that the Braves were expected to pass Hand’s mutual option, so the 33-year-old southpaw will again return to the open market.

There wasn’t much suspense behind the decision, as Hand struggled to a 7.50 ERA over 18 innings after coming to Atlanta from Colorado at the trade deadline.  Advanced metrics (such as a 49.6% strand rate) indicate that Hand was quite unlucky to post that 7.50 ERA, yet the Braves weren’t willing to take the $6.5MM bet that Hand would fare better in 2024.

Hand signed a one-year, $2MM deal with the Rockies last winter that initially contained a club option for 2024, but that club option became a mutual option once Hand was traded.  It was essentially a technicality, as mutual options are rarely picked up by both sides anyway.  Over the full 2023 campaign, Hand had a 5.53 ERA over 53 2/3 innings with Colorado and Atlanta, with a below average 9.3% walk rate.  While still dominant against left-handed batters, Hand was hit hard by righty swingers this season, running contrary to his normally solid career splits.

Despite those uninspiring numbers, Hand’s 25% strikeout rate and above-average hard-contact metrics are perhaps more reflective of his actual quality during the 2023 season, as his 3.87 SIERA was well below his 5.53 ERA.  This will be the case that Hand’s representatives will present to other teams in free agency, though it would be a surprise to see the left-hander get anything more than one guaranteed year.

Entering his age-34 season, Hand has 13 MLB seasons and three All-Star appearances under his belt, though his days as a closer are likely over.  With a 2.89 ERA from 2016-22, Hand has a strong track record of success, and getting away from Coors Field might hint at better bottom-line results next year.

Braves Acquire Brad Hand

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The Braves have acquired reliever Brad Hand from the Rockies, the clubs announced. Minor league reliever Alec Barger goes to Colorado in a one-for-one swap. Atlanta already had an opening on their 40-man roster.

Hand was one of the more obvious trade candidates this summer. The veteran reliever signed a buy-low deal with the Rockies late last offseason. He received a $1MM bonus for making the roster and is playing the year on a $1.5MM salary. Less than $500K remains to be paid out, though he’s also guaranteed a $500K buyout on a $7MM option at season’s end. That provision was a club option for Colorado but converts to a mutual pact now that Hand has been traded.

It’s largely immaterial, as Colorado never seemed likely to exercise the option. Hand has been a solid but unexceptional middle innings arm for the Rox. He’s tallied 35 2/3 innings through 40 appearances, working to a 4.54 ERA. That’s his worst ERA since moving to the bullpen seven years ago, though pitching half his games in Coors Field hasn’t done him any favors.

Despite the diminished run prevention, Hand has gotten an uptick in swing-and-miss. His 26.1% strikeout rate is his best mark in three seasons. His 9.7% swinging strike percentage is still a fair bit below-average but a little better than those of his prior two years. While he’s gotten tattooed by right-handed hitters, Hand has stifled lefties to a .143/.276/.204 batting line with 20 strikeouts in 59 plate appearances.

He’ll add a veteran specialist to a relief corps which Atlanta has sought to deepen over the past week. The Braves also acquired Pierce Johnson from Colorado and recently claimed Yonny Chirinos from Tampa Bay. They’re not impact additions, but Atlanta’s bullpen is already strong. The Braves enter play Tuesday with a 3.67 relief ERA that ranks fifth in the majors. It had been righty-heavy with Dylan Lee on the injured list; Hand adds a second option behind A.J. Minter, likely for more situational work.

In return, Colorado picks up some upper minors relief depth. Barger, 25, is a former 17th round selection out of North Carolina State. He’s spent the season at Double-A Mississippi, working to a 3.29 ERA with a quality 29.3% strikeout rate. Barger’s 12.8% walk percentage is elevated, but the Rockies are clearly intrigued by the bat-missing potential and the bottom line results. He’d be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter if not added to the 40-man roster, though the trades of Johnson and Hand (and likely a forthcoming deal of Brent Suter) could open an opportunity for him to get a late-season debut.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Rockies were trading Hand for Barger.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Black: Rockies Could Be “More Active” On Summer Trade Market

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At 36-58, the Rockies sit at the bottom of the National League and have MLB’s third-worst record overall, leading only the A’s and Royals. While Colorado has developed a reputation for hanging onto potential trade candidates at the deadline instead of moving them at peak value, manager Bud Black said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today that the Rox will likely be more active in 2023 (audio link).

“I think there’s probably more potential this year,” Black told Power Alley hosts Jim Duquette and Mike Ferrin. “…This year is the year where, possibly, you could see more movement out of us. With the players that we have, and what we have going on in the second half of this year, and going into next year and the years beyond, it could make more sense to be a little bit more active.”

Unfortunately for the Rockies, a number of their would-be trade chips are on the injured list — many with serious injuries. German Marquez won’t pitch again this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has a club option for next season, but that’ll likely be declined, as his recovery will span into next summer. Righty Antonio Senzatela is also set for Tommy John surgery, and lefty Kyle Freeland is on the IL with a subluxation in his non-throwing shoulder. Lefty reliever Brent Suter is a rental in the midst of a strong season, but he’s been out since late June with an oblique strain.

Others on the roster are sensible trade candidates from a contractual standpoint but aren’t performing well enough to maximize their value. Reliever Pierce Johnson is on a one-year, $5MM deal and is a natural candidate to change teams, but he’s also toting a grim 6.14 ERA and 13.2% walk rate. Daniel Bard, whom the Rockies extended in lieu of a trade last summer, has spent time on the injured list with anxiety issues. He’s seen a three mile per hour drop in velocity and has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings. C.J. Cron and Jurickson Profar are both free agents at season’s end, but both have played below replacement level in 2023.

The Rox do have a handful of interesting names to peddle. Veterans Randal Grichuk and Brad Hand are both impending free agents at season’s end and could draw interest. Hand was enjoying a strong rebound season before being tagged for seven runs across three recent appearances, sending his ERA ballooning up to 4.99. He’s still an affordable lefty with a 26.1% strikeout rate. If the Rockies aren’t afraid of dealing controllable relievers — particularly a pair who are of the late-blooming variety — both Justin Lawrence and Jake Bird should generate interest.

Catcher Elias Diaz, a first-time All-Star in 2023, is perhaps the team’s most appealing trade candidate, as I explored at greater length last week. Diaz is signed affordably through next season, and it’s unlikely Colorado will be in contention by the time his three-year, $14.5MM deal expires at the end of the 2024 campaign. There’s been no indication the Rockies would entertain offers on third baseman Ryan McMahon — at least not yet — but he’s signed through the 2027 season and is again playing superlative hot corner defense with solid offensive contributions as well (albeit in spite of a career-worst 31% strikeout rate that is an obvious red flag).

There’s sure to be some degree of frustration among Rockies fans to hear these types of comments in 2023 — when the Rockies have their worst roster in years — rather than in recent non-contending seasons. The Rockies, for instance, declined to trade either Trevor Story or Jon Gray when both were in their final seasons of club control. They received a compensatory draft pick when Story declined a qualifying offer but chose not to even make a QO to Gray, losing him with no compensation. GM Bill Schmidt recently suggested to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that he simply didn’t receive “legitimate” offers.

It was a similar story last summer with Bard, who was in the middle of a dominant season and viewed as one of the top trade candidates on the market. Rather than trade the 37-year-old flamethrower a couple months ahead of him reaching the open market, Colorado inked him to a two-year, $19MM extension that has quickly gone south. The Rockies also held onto Cron at the ’21 deadline and later extended him on a two-year deal that looked good this time last summer. Again, however, they hung onto Cron and, as with Bard, have seen his trade value plummet.

Time will tell how aggressive the Rockies will be and how much interest the healthy players on their roster will draw. But it’s abundantly clear the team is in need of some changes. Colorado is 19th in the Majors with 411 runs scored and 24th with 89 total home runs. The Rockies rank 13th in MLB with a .253 batting average but are 22nd with a .313 OBP and 18th with a .403 slugging percentage.

The pitching has been even worse. Injuries have surely contributed, but the Rockies’ staff looked highly questionable even coming into the season. To this point, Colorado starters have baseball’s worst combined ERA (6.44), and their bullpen ranks 27th with a 4.81 mark. Colorado pitchers have MLB’s worst strikeout rate (18.3%) and fifth-highest walk rate (9.7%). Their 1.51 HR/9 mark is the worst in baseball as well.

Schmidt: Rockies’ Relievers Drawing Trade Interest

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The Rockies enter deadline season at the bottom of the NL West. They’re positioned to listen to trade offers on veteran players, particularly those whose contracts are expiring at season’s end.

General manager Bill Schmidt discussed the team’s outlook with Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post in a piece Rockies’ fans will want to read in full. The baseball operations leader told Saunders the club is getting the most interest in some of its veteran relievers. Schmidt declined to specify which players. However, Saunders reports that left-hander Brent Suter is drawing the most attention, with righty Pierce Johnson and southpaw Brad Hand also generating some interest.

All three players are fairly straightforward trade candidates. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week the Rox were taking offers on their impending free agents. Johnson and Suter are ticketed for free agency. Hand is controllable via $7MM club option, but that price point might be a bit beyond Colorado’s comfort zone. If the Rockies did trade him, that provision would convert to a mutual option.

Suter, claimed off waivers from the Brewers last offseason, is playing this season on a $3MM arbitration salary. The 33-year-old carries an excellent 2.81 ERA across 41 2/3 innings. He’s only striking out 19.2% of batters faced on a modest 8.4% swinging strike percentage. Yet he’s long shown excellent control and an ability to stay off barrels, allowing him to keep his ERA below 4.00 in each of the last four seasons.

His trade candidacy could be complicated by his health with less than a month until the August 1 deadline. Suter is currently on the 15-day injured list after straining his left oblique in late June. It’s unclear how long he’ll be out of action, although Saunders writes that he completed a 20-pitch bullpen session yesterday.

Of course, the Rockies have shown a willingness to operate outside the norm for deadline sellers. Colorado has resisted trading some impending free agents in past seasons when they’ve been well out of contention. Players like C.J. Cron, Elias Díaz and Daniel Bard were signed to multi-year extensions. Trevor Story and Jon Gray walked in free agency, with no compensation in Gray’s case since Colorado declined to make a qualifying offer.

Schmidt suggested the organization would take a similar approach this summer. “We are going to listen on guys, but people have to remember that teams have to want your players, too. … You’re not going to run out a Triple-A team out there — for the integrity of the game,” he told Saunders. “But if there is interest in our players and we think it’s a good decision for our organization, long-term, then we will make considerations.” He said the club would ideally bring back minor league pitching in deadline deals; Colorado’s one move thus far saw them ship out Mike Moustakas for High-A righty Connor Van Scoyoc.

It’s possible the Rockies retain Suter even if he’s healthy enough to draw continued interest at the end of the month. Schmidt implied they could look into an extension, saying he “could see him, going forward in the next year or two, giving us veteran experience in our bullpen.”

The GM also expressed openness to listening on the team’s veteran position players, although Saunders unsurprisingly suggests there’s been less interest in the bulk of that group. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Jurickson Profar are all impending free agents. None has played especially well in 2023. Cron and Grichuk missed notable chunks of time with early-season injuries; Profar has been healthy but stumbled to a .246/.328/.382 line despite playing in the sport’s most hitter-friendly home venue.

Charlie Blackmon is also in the final season of his deal. He has never seemed a particularly plausible trade candidate for myriad reasons. The veteran has full no-trade rights as a career-long Rockie with over 10 years of MLB service. He’s making $15MM this year and is likely to be on the injured list into August after suffering a right hand fracture last month. Demand figures to be minimal, but Schmidt said he’d discuss potential trade scenarios with Blackmon if they arose. The GM noted there’s interest on the club’s part in bringing him back for a 14th season if Blackmon wants to continue playing.

Díaz might be the most interesting Colorado trade candidate on the position player side. Schmidt tells Saunders he’s willing to listen to “legitimate” offers on the first-time All-Star, who’s amidst arguably the best season of his career. The 32-year-old backstop is hitting .279/.331/.442 with nine homers through 296 trips to the dish. He’s making $5.5MM this season and under contract for $6MM next year. Given that extra season of club control, it seems Colorado is prepared to hold to a high asking price on the veteran.

Latest On Rockies’ Deadline Plans

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The Rockies are one of the few teams clearly out of playoff contention a month from the deadline. That positions them as a likely seller, though Colorado has generally been reluctant to deal players in recent summers even as they’ve typically been near the bottom of the standings.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Colorado is expected to be open to offers on most of their impending free agents. However, Heyman indicates the Rox are less interested in parting with Daniel Bard, who is under contract for 2024. That’s not to say they’d categorically refuse to listen on players with multiple years of club control, but it seems the front office prefers to relinquish only shorter-term assets.

That’s no surprise in light of Colorado’s past deadline activity. If the Rox do constrain themselves only to parting with rentals, they could be in for another quiet summer. The Rockies have six impending free agents — they already dealt Mike Moustakas to the Angels last weekend — but the bulk of the group has struggled.

A late-spring roll of the dice on Jurickson Profar hasn’t panned out. The switch-hitting left fielder has just a .231/.315/.372 line with six home runs over 318 plate appearances. His strikeout and walk numbers are solid, but Profar hasn’t hit for power and has rated as a well below-average defender. He’s playing this season on a $7.75MM salary and is unlikely to have much trade appeal.

That’s also true of reliever Pierce Johnson, who signed for $5MM over the winter. The right-hander carries a 6.19 ERA across 32 innings, struggles that pushed him out of the closing role a few weeks ago. Johnson has struck out an excellent 31.8% of opposing hitters while sitting north of 96 MPH on his heater, so perhaps another team could view him as an upside flier in the middle innings. Johnson’s poor ERA and bloated 13.2% walk percentage mean he’s unlikely to bring back much of note, though.

Outfielder Randal Grichuk and first baseman C.J. Cron are veteran stopgap bats. Grichuk has a .294/.357/.429 line with two homers over 196 plate appearances — league average offense after adjusting for Coors Field, as measured by wRC+. He’s capable of covering all three outfield spots but better suited for a corner. Cron lost a good chunk of the season to back spasms, returning a few days ago. The right-handed hitter has managed only a .231/.277/.420 line in 38 games this year. Cron came up just short of 30 homers in both 2021 and ’22, but he’s had a tough first few months.

The other two impending free agents, Charlie Blackmon and Brent Suter, are currently on the injured list. Blackmon has full no-trade rights and is making $15MM. He’s very unlikely to move. Suter, claimed off waivers last winter, has a 2.81 ERA across 41 2/3 innings of relief. The control specialist could draw some attention if healthy, but he just landed on the IL with a strained left oblique.

Colorado’s top realistic trade candidate might be another left-handed bullpen arm, Brad Hand. Signed to a $3MM free agent deal, the three-time All-Star has a 3.62 ERA over 27 1/3 frames. Hand has an above-average 28.1% strikeout rate despite a modest 9.5% swinging strike percentage.

Hand isn’t a true rental, as his contract contains a $7MM team option for next season. Heyman suggests the Rockies are likely to gauge the market on Hand, though. That’s not too surprising, since that option price is probably a bit beyond the veteran’s market value. If he’s traded, the option would convert to a mutual provision.

None of the Rockies’ impending free agents would bring back a significant prospect return. That’s probably also true of Bard, even though the veteran has a sterling 2.05 ERA across 26 1/3 innings. Bard opened the season on the injured list due to anxiety issues that have affected him at times throughout his career.

He has been on the active roster since mid-April but struggled to find the strike zone consistently. Bard has walked just under 20% of opponents, nearly double last season’s rate. At age 38 and due a $9.5MM salary next year, the right-hander would be a risky target for contenders even if the Rockies put him on the market.

Rockies’ Low-Cost Relief Addition Paying Off

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While most of last offseason’s major free agent activity was wrapped up by the new year, the left-handed relief market lagged. Matt Strahm and Taylor Rogers came off the board in December but veterans Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore and Zack Britton all lingered on the market. (Britton remains unsigned.)

Brad Hand also fell into the latter group. The three-time All-Star was a free agent until well into Spring Training. His camp had presumably pointed to last year’s 2.80 ERA over 45 innings for the Phillies and Hand’s broader track record since moving to relief. Teams were no doubt wary of dwindling swing-and-miss numbers that translated in a modest 19.2% strikeout rate and an 11.6% walk percentage that was his worst since going to the bullpen.

After four months of free agency, Hand signed a $3MM deal with the Rockies. Including a $1MM escalator for making the Opening Day roster, he’s being paid $2.5MM in salary. He’s also guaranteed at least a $500K buyout on a $7MM team/vesting option covering the 2024 season.

Colorado had a quiet winter, adding a handful of veteran free agents on one-year deals and bringing in unproven younger players via trade. Of the free agent pickups (Jurickson Profar, Pierce Johnson, José Ureña, Hand and Mike Moustakas), the southpaw has easily been the most effective.

Calling this a “rebound” campaign is probably doing Hand’s 2022 efforts a disservice. He worked around his middling strikeout and walk marks to keep runs off the board for Philadelphia, after all. Yet his first couple months in Colorado more closely resemble his best form.

The 33-year-old has punched out 30 of the 92 batters he’s faced over 23 appearances. His 32.6% strikeout rate is easily his best mark since 2020 and nine points higher than this year’s league average. Hand’s per-pitch metrics aren’t quite so excellent — his 11.3% swinging strike rate is around par for a reliever — but a notable step up from the past two seasons, when he was missing bats on less than 8% of his offerings.

Hand’s fastball velocity hasn’t changed. He has added some power back to his go-to slider. Hand is averaging 81.3 MPH on his breaking ball, a tick or two higher than he has over the past three years. The results have followed. Opponents are swinging through the slider far more than they have since 2020 and it’s been a particularly effective offering in two-strike counts.

Improving his swing-and-miss has allowed Hand to navigate his tough home environment. He carries a solid 3.86 ERA even as hitters are running a .400 average on balls in play against him. He hasn’t allowed a single home run. That obviously won’t continue over a full season but Hand’s ball-in-play results should come down to earth to help offset that.

That’s particularly true if he’s not calling Coors Field, which has the one of the game’s most spacious outfields, his home park all year. Hand’s uptick in whiffs figures to pique the interest of bullpen-needy contenders. As the trade deadline gets closer, general manager Bill Schmidt and his front office are likely to get questions on his availability.

There’s no guarantee the Rockies will actively shop Hand this summer, of course. At 26-35, Colorado is headed for another non-playoff season. Yet they’ve consistently resisted sweeping changes at previous trade deadlines. They’ve allowed some impending free agents (Trevor Story, Jon Gray) to hit the market and signed others to extensions (Daniel Bard, C.J. Cron) in response to what they felt weren’t compelling trade proposals.

Colorado might not have to do either in Hand’s case. Unless he finishes 25 games this season, the Rox would be able to keep him around via the club option. Hand has completed only six contests so far, putting him shy of a pace that’d convert the option into a mutual provision.

It’d also become a mutual option if Hand is traded. For the Rockies, whether to bring Hand back in 2024 is likely to be a club decision. For any other team, he’d have the right to retest free agency and would be viewed as more of a true rental.

Perhaps that discrepancy will diminish the trade offers to the point that Colorado prefers to play things out. So long as he keeps pitching at this level, though, he’ll be on the radar for other clubs. The Rockies haven’t had a ton go right to this point but the acquisition of Hand has developed as the front office would’ve drawn up.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Looking Ahead To Upcoming Club Options: NL West

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We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2023 season. Players have had a couple months to build something of a performance track record that’ll play a role in their future contracts. With that in mind, MLBTR will take a look over the coming days at players whose contracts contain team or mutual options to gauge the early trajectory for those upcoming decisions.

We’ll go division by division and open things in the National League West:

Arizona Diamondbacks

Chafin lingered in free agency over the winter after opting out of his deal with the Tigers. The seeming lack of market interest was perplexing given the lefty reliever’s consistent effectiveness over the past few seasons. He’s carried that over into his second stint in the desert. Through 20 1/3 innings, Chafin owns a 3.10 ERA. He’s punched out 36% of opposing hitters on a huge 16.2% swinging strike percentage, both of which would be career-high marks. He’s not a prototypical fireballing reliever but he’s demonstrated he’s capable of missing bats and thriving in high-leverage situations for the past few years. The $6.5MM net decision on next year’s option looks more than reasonable if he keeps this up.

  • Zach Davies: $5.5MM mutual option ($300K buyout, rises to $500K with 16+ starts)

Davies has been limited to three starts by a left oblique strain. He has allowed eight runs with a modest 10:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 12 2/3 innings. There’s not much to go on yet in terms of 2023 performance but Davies looked like a borderline fifth starter the previous two years. The Diamondbacks have enough young pitching they seem likelier to buy him out unless the soft-tossing righty rediscovers his 2019-20 form for the stretch run.

  • Miguel Castro: $5MM option vests with 60+ appearances; would become $6MM player option with 40+ games finished (no buyout)

Castro has already pitched 26 times since signing with Arizona over the winter. He’s on pace to easily surpass the 60-appearance threshold needed to vest next year’s $5MM option if he can avoid the injured list. It could be a closer call as to whether he can turn that guaranteed $5MM salary into a $6MM player option; Castro has finished 12 games thus far, putting him just off the 40-game pace he’d need to do so. (He’s on pace for 36 games finished). Castro has been effective — a 2.22 ERA with roughly average strikeout, walk and swinging strike numbers through 24 1/3 innings — so vesting the player option and retesting the market isn’t out of the question.

Melancon struggled to a 4.66 ERA in 56 innings during his first season in Arizona. He hasn’t pitched this year on account of a Spring Training shoulder strain. Melancon might return in the second half but this is trending towards the team buying him out.

Colorado Rockies

Márquez underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this month. He’ll miss the majority of next season as he rehabs. A healthy Márquez would’ve made this an easy call for the Rockies to exercise but the procedure means they’ll buy him out. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Rox try to bring him back on a lesser salary or a multi-year deal with an eye towards 2025.

Hand’s peripherals had fallen back between 2021-22 from his All-Star peak. He’s continued to keep runs off the board and seen a notable bounceback in his strikeout rate since a Spring Training deal with Colorado. Hand owns a 3.20 ERA through 19 2/3 frames while striking out 33.7% of batters faced on a decent 11.6% swinging strike percentage. The veteran southpaw has dominated left-handed hitters and is yet to allow a home run this season. If he maintains this form, he’ll be one of the top reliever trade candidates this summer. If Colorado hangs onto him, they could be faced with an interesting decision as to whether to keep him around for an extra $6.5MM next winter.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers signed Muncy to a $13.5MM deal last summer even as he was amidst his worst season since landing in L.A. They’ve been rewarded with a massive bounceback showing. Muncy is tied for second in the majors with 17 home runs. He’s only hitting .208 but carrying a strong .340 on-base percentage thanks to an elite 15.8% walk rate. The $10MM price point would be an easy decision for the Dodgers if Muncy keeps up anything approaching this pace.

Los Angeles brought Hudson back last summer on the heels of a season-ending ACL tear. The veteran reliever hasn’t recovered as quickly from that procedure as he’d hoped. Hudson hasn’t pitched yet this season. He told reporters last night he’ll throw a bullpen session this week but is without a timeline for a return to game action (via Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times). It remains to be seen how he’ll look when he takes the mound.

  • Alex Reyes: $3MM team option with escalators ($100K buyout)

The Dodgers took a $1.1MM flier on Reyes after he lost the 2022 season to shoulder surgery. He’s on the 60-day injured list and not expected to be a factor until around the All-Star Break. This one remains to be determined based on his post-rehab form.

  • Blake Treinen (option value between $1-7MM dependent on time spent on IL)

Treinen underwent surgery to repair the rotator cuff and labrum in his throwing shoulder last November. He won’t pitch much, if at all, this season. Treinen’s contract contains an option with a floating value between $1MM and $7MM depending on how much time he spends on the injured list and the issue that puts him on the shelf. Its precise value is yet to be determined, but MLBTR has confirmed it’ll land towards the lower end of that range given Treinen’s surgery.

San Diego Padres

  • Nick Martinez: team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option

Martinez has taken on a similar swing role as he served during his first year in San Diego. The right-hander started his first four outings and pitched reasonably well. He was nevertheless bumped back into relief thereafter. For the second consecutive season, Martinez has proven a key multi-inning arm out of the bullpen. He’s posted a 1.35 ERA with a quality 20:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 20 relief innings, holding opponents to a pitiful .240/.278/.267 batting line.

There’s little question of Martinez’s effectiveness in a relief role, though a $16MM average annual value could be pricy if the organization isn’t planning on giving him another look out of the rotation. Perhaps Martinez’s production over the final four months makes this a clearer decision for San Diego by season’s end. As of now, it looks like a borderline call — not too dissimilar from Martinez’s question of whether to opt out of three years and $18MM last winter. The Padres liked him enough to subsequently re-sign him to a $26MM guarantee with the complex option structure.

  • Michael Wacha: team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option (with successive player options for 2025-26)

Wacha lingered in free agency last winter. Clubs seemed reluctant to buy into his solid results for the Red Sox, a reflection of middling strikeout and ground-ball numbers. Since landing in San Diego, he’s basically repeating last year’s script. The run prevention is excellent; he’s allowed a 3.45 ERA through 57 1/3 innings over ten starts. Wacha is again throwing strikes and keeping runs off the board despite roughly average strikeout and swinging strike rates.

Maintaining a mid-3.00s ERA for a second straight season might build confidence in his ability to outperform ERA estimators that suggest he’s more of a solid #4 starter than a mid-rotation arm. That said, Wacha doesn’t look all that different now than he did three months ago, when he signed a four-year guarantee with a $6.5MM average annual value. A jump to the $16MM per-year range could be a tougher sell for San Diego, although there’s little doubt Wacha would opt out of the final three years and $18.5MM on his contract if he keeps pitching like this and the Padres decline their end.

San Francisco Giants

Cobb has pitched well since signing a two-year deal with San Francisco over the 2021-22 offseason. He carries a 3.05 ERA through his first 11 starts this year. Cobb’s 60.6% ground-ball rate is stellar and he’s posted average strikeout and walk numbers (21.3% and 6.7%, respectively). An $8MM net decision would be an easy call for the Giants to exercise if Cobb maintains this pace. He’s dealt with injuries in the past but managed 149 2/3 innings over 28 starts last year and has avoided the IL in 2023.

All stats through play Monday.

Rockies Sign Brad Hand

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MARCH 6: The 2024 option would convert into a mutual option if Hand either finishes 25 games or is traded at any point during the upcoming season, reports the Associated Press. Hand could earn an additional $1MM in performance bonuses both this season and during 2024 (if the option is triggered). He’d receive $250K apiece at 40 and 50 appearances and $500K if he gets into 60 games.

MARCH 4: The Rockies announced agreement with reliever Brad Hand on a one-year deal on Saturday. It’s a $2MM guarantee, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (via Twitter links).  The guaranteed money breaks down as a $1.5MM salary in 2023, and then a $500K buyout of a $7MM club option the Rockies hold on Hand’s services for the 2024 season.  Another $1MM bonus is available for Hand if he is still in the organization by Opening Day, with Rosenthal noting that means either on the active roster or on the injured list.  Hand turns 33 later this month. He is represented by the Wasserman Agency.

Right-hander Tyler Kinley will be placed on the 60-day injured list to create roster space for Hand, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports (Twitter link).  Kinley is expected to be out of action until at least midseason after undergoing elbow surgery last June.

Once Hand appears in an official game in the purple pinstripes, it will mark 13 MLB seasons and eight different teams for the veteran southpaw.  Hand inked a one-year, $6MM with the Phillies last winter and contributed to the Phils’ push to the NL pennant, delivering a 2.80 ERA over 45 regular-season innings and then a 4.76 ERA in 5 2/3 postseason frames.  That small sample size of playoff work was perhaps more reflective of Hand’s overall quality in 2022, as he had a 4.51 SIERA and 4.90 xFIP, and his .297 wOBA was well under his .323 xwOBA.  Hand did a very good job of limiting hard contact last year, but with subpar strikeout and walk rates.

All things considered, Hand’s 2022 advanced metrics weren’t far removed — or in some cases were worse — than his 2021 metrics, though he had a lot more good fortune with that 2.80 ERA as opposed to his 3.90 mark with the Nationals, Mets, and Blue Jays in 2021.  (MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently took a deeper dive into Hand’s 2022 performance.) Hand was also a lot better at keeping the ball in the park with the Phillies — he allowed only two homers in his 45 frames last year, after giving up nine long balls over 64 2/3 innings in 2021.

The soft contact and ability to keep the ball in the park is naturally of interest for a team that plays in Coors Field, and the Rockies ended up acquiring Hand after a relatively quiet offseason in terms of publicly-known interest.  The Cubs and Twins were both linked to Hand over the last month, though in general, the market for left-handed relief pitching was mostly pretty slow after an initial flurry prior to Christmas.  Only in recent weeks has the ice started to thaw, as names like Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, and (just earlier today) Will Smith have now come off the board.

Speaking of quiet offseasons, the Rockies haven’t done a whole lot of note this winter, much to the consternation of fans who saw the club lose 94 games in 2022.  Colorado has done a fair amount of work in the bullpen, at least, as Hand joins such names as Pierce Johnson, Nick Mears, and fellow left-handers Brent Suter and Ty Blach and Fernando Abad.  Since Blach and Abad were minor league signings, Hand’s deal might push one or both of those other lefties out of consideration for spot on the Opening Day roster.

The club option also gives Colorado some control over Hand’s future if he does fully regain his past form.  Hand was one of the better relievers in the sport when pitching with San Diego and Cleveland from 2016-20, and naturally the Rockies saw him often back in his Padres days.  Since Johnson, Suter, and Dinelson Lamet are all slated for free agency after the 2023 season, the Rockies could keep at least one pitcher in the fold by exercising Hand’s option, if he pitches well enough to make that $6.5MM decision a wise one for the Rox.

Cubs Have Shown Interest In Mike Minor

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Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said this afternoon the team was still monitoring the market for left-handed relief. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic adds some specificity to that search, reporting that players like Mike Minor, Will Smith and Brad Hand have all been under consideration. Mooney also adds Zack Britton — whose appeal to the Cubs has previously been reported — as a player the club has checked in on.

Interest in Smith, Hand and Britton is fairly straightforward for a club seeking southpaw help in the later innings. They’re arguably the three top unsigned relievers of either handedness. They’re all former All-Stars with strong career track records and more recent question marks.

Smith had a rocky first half of the season in Atlanta but quietly impressed following a deadline trade to the Astros. Hand allowed fewer than three earned runs per nine innings with the Phillies last season, but that came with strikeout and walk marks that were a few percentage points worse than the respective league averages. Britton has barely pitched over the past season and a half after battling elbow issues that culminated in September 2021 Tommy John surgery.

Smith has only previously been linked to the Tigers this offseason. Evan Petzold of the Free-Press reported Detroit’s interest a couple weeks back but noted that Smith was also drawing attention from clearer-cut contenders. The Cubs are coming off a 74-88 season but were well better than Detroit in 2022 and have had a far more active offseason in an effort for immediate improvement. The only other team that has been publicly tied to Hand are the Twins.

Unlike that trio, Minor hasn’t had any recent work out of the bullpen. He pitched exclusively in relief for the 2017 Royals after two seasons lost to shoulder problems. Since then, the veteran left-hander has pitched essentially entirely as a starter. He has started all but one of 119 appearances in the last five years. Minor had quite a bit of success in that capacity with the Rangers between 2018-19. Things have gone downhill in the trio of seasons since then.

Minor has allowed more than five earned runs per nine innings in each of the past three campaigns. Between 2020-21, he at least stayed mostly healthy and served as a source of back-of-the-rotation innings. That wasn’t the case in 2022, however. Minor was limited to 98 frames over 19 starts during his lone season as a member of the Reds. He posted a 6.06 ERA with a career-worst 16.7% strikeout percentage while allowing an untenable 2.2 home runs per nine.

It’s possible Minor’s struggles are attributable, at least in part, to injury. The 35-year-old began the season on the injured list with a shoulder concern and didn’t make his season debut until early June. He finished the year back on the IL thanks to renewed shoulder issues. The former All-Star hinted at potential retirement last fall but has apparently decided to give things another go. He recently held a showcase for interested teams.

Minor could appeal to teams seeking to stockpile their rotation depth, though the Cubs are presumably eyeing him as a potential relief option. Chicago has Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele and Drew Smyly penciled into their top four rotation spots. Hayden Wesneski, Adrian Sampson and Javier Assad headline the group competing for the final rotation job to open the year. Kyle Hendricks, who’d surely get a starting job once healthy, is reportedly looking towards May for a potential rehab stint after his 2022 campaign was cut short by a capsule tear in his shoulder.

The Cubs have been linked to a number of lefty relief options throughout the offseason. Brandon Hughes is the only southpaw assured of a season-opening bullpen job. There’s room for a second pitcher, though the club has slow-played that area despite an otherwise aggressive offseason that has brought in Taillon, Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, Tucker Barnhart and a handful of right-handed ’pen arms.

There might not be much room left in the budget. Roster Resource projects the Cubs’ luxury tax number around $225MM, $8MM shy of this year’s base threshold. Mooney writes the organization presently views that tax marker “as a soft salary cap,” limiting the amount of flexibility for Hoyer and his front office. It seems unlikely any of the remaining relievers would secure an $8MM guarantee at this point in the offseason — Minor, in particular, might be limited to non-roster offers — but most teams prefer to leave a bit of payroll space for in-season acquisitions.

Whether ownership would approve a bump above the luxury tax if the team is competing for a playoff spot in-season remains to be seen. Owner Tom Ricketts spoke vaguely about the tax in January, saying there “will be times I’m sure in the near future where we’ll go over. But we’ll always keep in mind that there’s a balance there you have to always look to manage” (link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). The Cubs last paid the luxury tax in 2020.

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