Whatever the Red Sox may prefer, the odds are that the organization will again go over the luxury tax line in 2018, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe explains. Indeed, with a hefty arbitration class set to land on top of an already robust set of guaranteed contracts, the team will enter the offseason without much hope of improving unless it’s willing to exceed the $197MM luxury tax line. Of course, the club reset its luxury tax status by staying under the 2017 mark, which reduces the penalty for going back over (but would also begin a new climb upward in the escalating tax scheme).
Here’s more from the AL East:
- As the Red Sox continue looking into candidates for the team’s open managerial position, the team is allowing its coaches to look into their own alternatives. Well-regarded hitting coach Chili Davis is set to visit with the Padres, per Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston (Twitter links). San Diego parted ways with hitting coach Alan Zinter, leaving the club looking at alternatives. Of course, it’s still also possible that a new Boston manager would prefer to keep Davis or certain other members of the staff, but the staff is now free to make its own decisions at this stage.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post posits a scenario in which the Yankees can obtain quite a strong rotation next year without any massive new investments. Of course, doing so would depend not only upon achieving some notable strokes of good market luck but also upon the organization getting the best versions of some pitchers that have had their ups and downs. Most interestingly, Sherman says the “general sense” is that Masahiro Tanaka will not opt out of the three years and $67MM left on his deal. While that’s hardly cheap and still carries obvious risk, it seems like an appealing price tag for a pitcher of his pedigree, given his late-season rebound. Sherman’s most optimistic version of a 2018 staff also includes Shohei Otani, whose destination is anyone’s guess at this stage. All things considered, though, the Yanks’ roation situation does seem much better than might have been anticipated entering the year, due largely to the surge of Luis Severino and emergence of Jordan Montgomery.
- Meanwhile, the Yankees are trying prospect Billy McKinney out at first base in the Arizona Fall League, Bill Mitchell writes for Baseball America, though he’ll also continue primarily to be an outfielder. As Mitchell notes, McKinney showed better than ever after finally reaching the Triple-A level midway through the 2017 season. The 23-year-old slashed .306/.336/.541 with ten home runs in his 224 plate appearances there, though he also walked just four percent of the time (well below his usual rate) and carried a .353 batting average on balls in play that likely reflects both good contact and some fortune. It’ll be interesting to see when and how McKinney is utilized at the MLB level, but he could factor into the team’s depth considerations for the season to come or potentially be dangled as a trade candidate.
- Though the Orioles will obviously need to bring in some new players if they hope for a return to contention, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports writes that the team also must receive improvements from within if it hopes to compete. Consistent production from key players was elusive in 2017, which failed to create a base of output sufficient to maintain a winning record. Even with expectations of some bounceback performances, though, the roster will surely be in need of supplementation; MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down the possibilities.
Just my opinion but I think the odds are that the Yankees hold on to McKinney and do not trade him. The Yankees depth in the outfield has taken a bit of a hit with moving Fowler, Mateo and Rutherford and Gardner a FA after the 2018 season. If McKinney can continue what he started in 2017 there will be a place for him with the Yankees at some point in 2018.
I’ve heard fans say McKinney is overrated, but it seems like he’s done nothing but improve his stock since coming here!
What is the general consensus?
When he was traded to the Cubs it was considered a steal getting him with Russell. His stock started to fade up until the Yanks got him and continued through last year. This year saw him putting some shine back on his prospect rep,but nowhere near what it was with the A’s. He’s always been considered a quick study with a relentless work ethic… oh there’s Sherman chiming in again.
In my opinion McKinney has the same problem Sanchez did his last couple of years as a prospect.. He has been a top prospect so long that his star has faded from over-exposure. He has the same skill set as he did when he was with the A’s and now that he has reached AAA the spotlight is back on him.. I am looking forward to watching so many of the Yankees prospects graduate next year.. McKinney being just one of them..
Sherman has the pulse of the Yankees, and Cashman stated yesterday that the Yanks will be under the cap next year. At this point I think the Yanks are happy with what they have coming back next year. A rotation of Severino, Ohtani, Tanaka, Gray, and Montgomery with Adams as the sixth would be a good rotation. I see them getting Ohtani and Jake McGee as a situational lefty. Cashman will look to cut more off team salary by trying to move players like Gardner, Betances, Warren, Headley, and even Ellsbury.
“Sherman has the pulse of the Yankees”
Sherman has the pulse of a self-hating Mets fan, who hates on both franchises.
Hey I saw Billy was back yesterday….
If Sherman has the pulse of the Yankees,why is he off on Tanakas plans. Why would the Yanks deal Warren? Once again Gardner isn’t going anywhere and nobody wants Headley let alone Ellsbury. Do you even watch the Yankees?
According to Fangraphs a 1 WAR player is worth 8 million a year and Gardner will be making almost 12 million next year the last year of his contract with a 3.8 WAR. Ellsbury had a 1.6 WAR, and Headley 1.9 WAR. So with that in mind Gardner would be worth over 18 million to a team like the Nats or Giants for one year. Headley is making 13 million for one year and he is worth about 16 million. We know that Ellsbury is the hardest to move making 22 milliion but maybe someone would take him if Cashman pays down his salary. Cashman tried to move all these players last off season and had some offers, but none he liked. Any of these moves would give them more money for pitching. and opens up spots for both Fraziers’s and Torres next year.
Chase Headley was a 1.9 WAR player with declining defense. He needed a .352BABIP to be worth that much this year? What do you think the chances are he does that again? Sean Rodriguez got a 2/11.5mil contract coming off a 1.8 WAR season in 380 abs. David Freese got the same. Why would anyone pay 13 million for chase headley? Moving ells is a pipe dream. You’d be hard pressed to find someone who would pay 8mil a year for him. Might as well sit him on your bench if you’re going to have to pay over 12 mil a year to get rid of him. You’re eating a good chunk of change to get rid of those guys, dont kid yourself.
Also not sure why you would want to move Gardner. It’d be a lot to expect Clint Frazier to be a nearly 4 War player next season. He wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire in his brief stint. He’s a rookie, struggles should be expected. Not everyone is bellinger or judge from day 1
Fangraphs, there you have it Chase Headley is worth 18 million, part time plyr. Can barely crack the lineup in the post season, Ells worth even less, a bunch of overpaid mediocrity
Even judge wasn’t judge from day 1
I agree with most of your assestment… especially the one about Headley not being valued as a $16 mil player. If the Yanks want to trade him, they will have to eat a little money but not as much as you might think. However, I think they keep him. He’s great insurance next year for a Bird Injury and allows them to slowly bring in Aguilar or Torres at 3B. I think a misseason trade for a PTBNL is more plausible.
As for Ells, he’s gone this offseason and the Yanks will eat all but 5 to 8 Mil a year (probably closer to the $5 mil). Cashman won’t keep him on the bench just because of the dollars. He needs the room on the 40 man roster. If he can save $5 mil a year, make Frazier a 4th OF, and have the roster spot to save a McKinney, Cave, Abreu, or Ford then he’ll surely do it. Those guys have become too good to just give away so Cashman is going to do what’s needed to keep as many as he can from the Rule 5 draft.
And I agree they’d be nuts to trade Gardner.
While I would love to see Ellsbury gone even if money has to be eaten,I just don’t see any team wanting him. Castro will probably be gone this offseason to make room for Torres(who doesn’t have the arm to play third),plus Castro has looked horrible defensively in the playoffs. Ford is pretty much a AAAA player and as for Cave he doesn’t fit into future plans…see Refsnyder and Ben Gamel as examples. Maybe sign Todfather to a one year deal to cover third until next offseason. I’m not completely sold on Frazier(neither was Cleveland) and there’s a certain LH 2015 MVP that’s available next offseason. Oh and this winter go hard after Otani!!!
Well I would argue that Ellsbury is better than every single Giants OF so there’s one team. If they can’t find a taker they will inevitably release him. The 40 man roster spot right now is just too valuable.
Castro outplayed his contract this year which is great for a possible trade but no way Torres makes the team until later in the season. Again the 40 man roster will be crowded and they don’t need to protect Torres this winter so they will hold him back a bit.
I’ve never seen Torres play but I actually thought I read scouts like his arm at 3B.
Love to get the Todfather on a one year. He’s great for team chemistry. But he will most likely land a three year elsewhere.
Ford might end up being an AAAA and same with Cave (although his ceiling is way higher than Ref). However their trade value in a year as part of a package for someone carries value so I doubt Cashman will just let them be stolen unless he just can’t free a spot. Wouldn’t be surprised if one gets dealt this offseason for international spending money.
Speaking of ISM… I’d love to see them land Otani. Super cheap with high upside.
I don’t see the Yanks going after Harper. The Yanks aren’t going to play Money Ball but they are done being over the luxury tax year over year. Harper will command 10 years for $30+ mil. That’s a lot when they might need to shell out contracts that are almost as big for 4 or more of their young guys when that contract is less than half done.
Tyler Wade and Ronald Torreyes can cover 2B if Gleyber Torres isn’t ready out of spring. I’d like to see them package Castro and Betances+ for a high end starter…Cole maybe. Todd is a Yankee fan from way back and had a down year,so a one year deal could build his stock back up. Anyway things go the future is bright in the Bronx….
You’re not getting Gerrit Cole for betances and Castro. What sense does that make for Pittsburgh? Not buying starlin castro’s trade value either. He’s making 10mil a year and that’s about what he’s worth. You traded adam Warren for him and you’re not going to get anybody better than that in return.
Andy Pettitte is going to teach Montgomery the cutter this off-season, if it works out the way it did with CC, then he should be even better next year.
All 4 of his innings should be must see.
And the highest paid reliever in MLB history..David Price
Poor small market Red Sox. Boston isn’t even a top 5 city, how are they supposed to compete?
Remaining teams: NY (Biggest US city) LA (2nd biggest US city) Chicago (3rd biggest US city) and Houston (4th biggest US city).
Good luck trading Ellsbury or Headley. Both need to be released to make room for more Yankees prospects. Justus Sheffield looks like he could help Yanks soon.
For any team to be building a scenario with the premise they will land Otani is just dumb.
What do you mean by building a scenario?