Earlier tonight, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported that teams have come away from initial talks with J.D. Martinez’s camp that he’s seeking a $200MM deal, and Crasnick now tweets that clubs are under the impression that free-agent right fielder Jay Bruce is seeking $80-90MM over a five-year term.
Certainly, it’s worth keeping in mind that virtually every agent will come out aiming high early in free agency. But an early run at a five-year deal likely indicates a confidence out of Bruce’s camp that he can secure at least a four-year pact down the line. It’s a steep ask for Bruce, who the Mets were unable to trade just one year ago in a crowded market for corner bats.
Bruce’s 2017 campaign has undoubtedly boosted his stock, though. The 30-year-old (31 on April 3) hit .254/.324/.508 with 36 home runs for the Mets and Indians this past season and turned in dramatically improved defensive contributions in right field. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating felt that Bruce improved by anywhere from 10 to 16 runs over his dismal 2016 season, with each metric pegging him as an above-average defender this year. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric pegged him at one out below average. At worst, it seems fair to count on him as a respectable right fielder in 2018, and it’s worth noting that he did log 91 innings at first base in 2017, as well.
The defensive turnaround isn’t necessarily without explanation. Bruce underwent arthroscopic knee surgery early in the 2014 season and rushed back to the Reds in less than three weeks’ time. He’d carried a strong defensive reputation to that point in his career — twice a +16 DRS mark, for instance — but turned in largely unimpressive numbers in the coming years. It’s possible that further distancing himself from that knee procedure helped to improve his mobility.
All that said, a $16-18MM annual salary on a five-year term (or even on a four-year pact) is ambitious for Bruce. It’s unlikely that his glovework will return to its previous heights, and he hasn’t posted even league-average offensive output against left-handed pitching since the 2013 campaign, by measure of wRC+. This past season, he slashed a meager .222/.285/.433 against lefties (albeit with a gaudy .268/.341/.542 slash while holding the platoon advantage).
Bruce’s camp will also have to deal with the reality that there will be no shortage of corner outfield options available both in free agency and on the trade market. While Bruce is probably the top free-agent alternative to Martinez now that Justin Upton has signed a new deal with the Angels, the free-agent market still offers useful veterans like Carlos Gomez and Jon Jay as well as bounceback candidates Carlos Gonzalez, Jose Bautista and Andre Ethier. Over on the trade market, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty, Avisail Garcia and Gerardo Parra are among the possibly available names for teams eyeing corner-outfield bats.
When looking at recent comparables, Bruce seems more similar to Josh Reddick, who signed a four-year $52MM contract last winter, than he does to the Upton and Yoenis Cespedes tier of free agent sluggers. A three-year deal for Bruce seems definitively attainable and a four-year outlay is a clear possibility, but it’d be a surprise to see him reel in a five-year guarantee — especially at such a lofty annual value.
Lol
my reaction exactly lmao
Double lol. Free agency is always humorous at this time of the year.
People seem to forget how free agency works. As much as we like to do napkin math and type furiously, players don’t get paid on a linear wRC+ scale and somebody will get embarrassingly overpaid this year. If you can show me your crystal ball that correctly predicted Zito, Pujols or Greinke, I’ll shut up.
I’d be absolutely shocked personally. Beyond the fact that he’s simply not worth a five-year contract as a player, it was only two months ago that the Mets were struggling to give him away to a contender. Budgets are obviously different in-season, and I do think he’ll end up with a solid three-year deal, but it took Michael Brantley getting injured for any team to be willing to say “ok, we’ll take Bruce for $4M,” and he was mediocre in Cleveland, so I don’t think that his league-wide stock would be much higher now
I wouldnt compare Bruce to those 3 as they were some of the best players in the league at the time those deals were signed. Honestly, the market is saturated with big bats again: Hosmer, Moose, LoMo, Seth Smith, Moreland, Alonso, Martinez etc.
If he signs early, he MIGHT be able to get the grandy deal someone else brought up earlier, but if he holds out and the amount of landing spots disappear, then its going to be considerably less. Im thinking an estimated 50% prediction @ 3/36
Did you put Seth smith in as a big bat as a joke? I hope so.
Pretty good target! 3/39!
@dirtyd27
So you are comparing Bruce to Cy Young level pitchers and MVP type of hitters. Good luck with that!
My crystal ball says … hahaha
might as well start high and work your way down.. I’ll guess he signs like 3/42M
He will get at least the 4/52 that Reddick got. My best guess is he gets close to 4/60 or 5/75. I don’t think he even considers a 3-year offer under $50 million, he would be more likely to sign a 1-year deal to further boost his value if he couldn’t get that.
I don’t see him getting more than Reddick. Reddick was a year younger when he signed his contract. They’re similar batters, Bruce with more power, Reddick getting on base a lot more, but Reddick is much better at fielding, and base running. Interest in Bruce seemed to be kind of tepid when he was being shopped by the Mets. I think he may get 4/52, but no one is giving him 5 years.
Bruce seemed much better in the clutch.
Statistical analysis has pretty much proved being clutch is illusory. Most guys who were considered to be clutch hit about their average in clutch situations. Good hitters appear to be clutch, but it’s only because, as a good hitter, they’re more likely to get a hit in a clutch situation than an average hitter.
In that respect Reddick is probably more likely to get a hit, or walk and contribute to a rally in clutch situations, while Bruce is probably more likely to hit one out.
Reddick was lights out in the WS.
Reddick was actually really, really clutch throughout the regular season and also played well against the Red Sox in the playoffs (6 for 16). But looked like was pulling the ball too much against Yankees, got in a mini slump, which went into the Dodgers series. He had a similar “pulling ball” mini slump during the season and got out of it. Wouldn’t read too much into his world series performance, he is a clutch player. Bruce is similarly a clutch player.
“Interest was tepid” because he was a rent a player and the Mets wanted to dump his whole salary.
Yes, he should have hit .400 over 4 weeks versus the league’s best.
Reddick career OBP: .323
Bruce career OBP: .319
If any team goes 4 years, it will be at the cost of AAV. So 4/$44 instead of 3/$39mm that MLBTR predicts.
They spent 2 hours on MLB Network radio discussing the overvalued FA this morning and Bruce was near the top of that list. They were saying that no one would go past 2 guaranteed on him. That maybe he would get a couple of options years, maybe even vesting options.
The only stat I have seen that comes close to measuring “clutch” is WPA/LI. For 2017 Reddick was 3.24 and Bruce was 2.70. It is a stat that you see wild fluctuations year to year, so it’s of no use as a predictive stat, only as a measure of what happened last year.
@tad2b13 too bad games are played on the field though, not inside of computers. Players know clutch is real.
Oh he will consider a 3 year deal under $50m
No even close. Reddick hits for average and he plays above average defense at all 3 OF positions. Reddick OPS+ was 20 points higher, his wRC+ was 9% better, and his fWAR was nearly a full point higher. 3 of the last 4 seasons Bruce’s WAR has been under 1.0. Bruce has not been a positive defensive player since 2013 and in 2011-2012 he was horrible in the field. Reddick struck out at a 13.8% rate while Bruce’s K rate was 22.5%. Reddick is just a more valuable player and he got an AAV of $13 million.
Bruce should be looking at an AAV of that or a little less. MLBTR projected 3/$39mm. If it were my money I would go $2/24 with an option for a 3rd year at $15 million with a $2 million buyout. Guarantees Bruce $26 million.
That’s what I figured, a Trumbo kinda deal
Oh yeah? Good of luck with that one kid! LoL
i’d love the tribe to re sign him, but not at 5 years lol
Well everyone has a dream
Mine was shot all to heck just a few days ago when Kate Upton got married.
As an Astros fan, I think that’s a reasonable deal. 5 yrs, $80M. He’s only 30 years old, and can play a good outfield as well. Would think this is much more realistic than what JD Martinez is asking for. I wouldn’t mind the Stros signing him, plus he is from Beaumont, Texas just east of Houston.
I actually think it’s reasonable as well (and I wouldn’t mind seeing him back with the Mets).
“He’s only 30 years old””
MLB trending younger hard. Nobody wants a 35 year old outfielder unless he’s on his way to Cooperstown.
Free agency is about 1) supply & demand and 2) finding an owner with a man crush on the client.
The fact that Bruce was so hard to trade for so long indicates that there is no man crush out there for him and the supply of outfielders is strong.
” Nobody wants a 35 year old outfielder unless he’s on his way to Cooperstown.”
Justin Upton? J.D. Martinez?
Now that the Yankees, Red Sox, & Dodgers don’t spend in free agency much and have young cores, I’d take the under on most of these free agent prices. Of course, all it takes is one team.
It’s nice to want things.
Next were gonna hear about Darvish wanting 170 million.
If Darvish came out with that demand he’d have a contract by the end of the day. It’s a lot don’t get me wrong but as the top pitcher available he’s gonna get there or close to it.
If Darvish gets that……..or anywhere near that……I hope it’s with one of the Teams “That I Love to Hate”………suckers.
He might. Not sayings it a good signing. But it just takes one irrational owner to sign a free agent to an rediculous deal.
Do you hate the Cubs ?
Don’t want him. I’d rather have Arrieta over Darvish. At least jake can get more than 10 outs in 2 games. Jake pitched his butt off game 4 of the NLCS. Darvish was awful in the world series.
The team that signs every Free Agent is the one that is left after every other team says “Too Much!”
By the end of the day huh? Good luck with the $170m demand
If Bruce is asking for 5 years at $16+ million, Darvish is going to be asking for a $200 million deal.
I can see four. Not five.
4/70-75
I can see him getting the Granderson deal. 4/60.
I’d say you’re pretty darn close to what I was thinking as well…
My guess is 4 years and 62-64mil.
I think you are in the ballpark. If the market develops, it could look like 4/68. If it doesn’t, well, the Mets could bring him back at 3/52 with a mutual option for $20 or a buyout of 3M or so. At that rate, maybe you get other teams to last minute out-bid by a few Million, or maybe not.
I just don’t see $15 million AAV. $12-13 is far more likely. He just doesn’t do anything well except hit for power and there is a glut of that type of player. Supply and demand would indicate that he gets a much smaller deal than anyone expects. He might be able to head that off by signing very early and get something close to what MLBTR predicts or 3/$39mm, but he is still not going to get 5/80+.in
Cardinals say they’re looking for a Big Bat.
They’ll look at JD, but they won’t spend that kind of money. They’ll try to trade for Stanton, but I’m not sure they’ll like his salary requirement either…..or if Stanton will agree to waive his NTC to go there.
Bruce is definitely a ‘fall-back option” for them in my eyes. Power Bat, decent defense, can sub at 1B when needed. I did peg him at 3/48 at the most……maybe he gets 3/54 if the market goes nuts? That would free them up to trade Piscotty to California (so he could be closer to family……specifically his Mom who has ALS).
CarGo is their other possibility. They liked him before, but he’s fallen off that old pace. They might get him for 1/12 or 2/20…???
I could definitely see Bruce to St. Louis for 3/$50 + option year to make it 4. I also wouldnt mind seeing the Dodgers go after Piscotty
I’d be ok with Bruce but that’s not enough to change the dynamic of this offense IMO!
They need a different infield corner bat from my POV and as a process, utilize Fowler how they originally wanted too and that’s at leadoff and displace the 3 toed sloth that occupies that spot currently by way of dropping him further down the lineup or somewhere else all together preferably in the AL as a DH!
But that’s just my perspective…
Bruce is a 3 year/ 45 million guy for some team. J.D. Martinez 200 million? Really? Is that for 6 years? If he thinks he is getting 5 years $200 million, Harper will get $500 million. At some point in time, players will in fact out price themselves and MLB will become the NBA, with only a few teams able to compete. Teams also have a hard cap and may be willing to go over the cap for a season or two. But then it gets prohibitive with taxes on amounts above the cap. Martinez may be in line for a 5 year $120 million deal. More than that, forget it.
I don’t see the MLB turning into the NBA. Parity is built into the MLB by how hard it is to predict what prospects will turn into stars. Also, it has been really hard for MLB teams to buy championships through free agency, especially now that PED aren’t helping stars maintain upward trajectories into their late 30s. Even free agents are a huge gamble in the MLB.
Smallest market in MLB is Cincinnati.
Joey Votto waving hello to you like a Navy flagman on a carrier.
And don’t forget Homer Bailey.
Here are the market sizes – lyonspr.com/latest-nielsen-dma-rankings/
And I’m seeking a date with Emily Ratajkowski
bro me too
Not happening
welp, at least we’ll stay entertained during the off season
Jay Bruce is reportedly drunk.
Down-voted by both Jay Bruce and his mother. I feel special.
Its a little high, but its not ridiculous like J.D.’s ask. Bruce will probably end up with like $15m AAV for 3-4 years, just 1-3m less a year that what he’s putting out there now, but on a shorter term deal.
I think signing Bruce for 4/60 is a way better move than signing J.D. for at least twice as much. (although that may be a 5 or 6 year deal) Obviously Martinez has the better bat, but with his defensive liabilities I don’t think he’s 10-15m better per year than Bruce, and I’d be really concerned about J.D. producing when he’s 35/36 .
I can see 4 years, but not 5, so they will likely compromise on a 4.5-year contract that lets him have the Summer of ‘22 off to hunt, fish, or other Texan things.
5 x 16mil wouldn’t surprise me at all, I didn’t realize he was 30, I thought he was 34-35 lol
He’s 30 right now, but he’ll turn 31 around the start of next season. I think he seems older because he’s not particularly good with the glove or running the bases.
No way he gets 5 years at $16m AAV.
Seems to bode well for the White Sox selling off Garcia and the Marlins who may shop Ozuna/Yelich.
Detroit needs some outfielders
There was just an interesting proposal for a NY-Detroit trade on MLB.com. The hot stove article proposed the potential for NY and Detroit to do a bad contract swap. NY gets Zimmerman and Detroit gets Elsbury. That actually makes sense.
I know, at the time of his signing, Zimmermann openly stated his desire to return to his Midwestern roots. Maybe things have changed since, but NY wouldn’t seem to be his cup of tea, and he obviously has a full NTC next year, so I don’t see it
This just has a feel of “uh oh” to it. Someone is going to do 4/60, with a vesting option or buyout for the 5th. As for JD Martinez, I would say ridiculous, but then again, once in a while, Boras pulls off ridiculous.
At the end of free agency he’ll get a 3/35. No team is going to give a pure power hitter a lot of money long term.
And Boras wants $200M for Martinez. Always ask for more than you expect to get
– in these cases a LOT more. Bruce should only expect 3 years, and Martinez should expect around $125M.
I get the concept of setting your sights high and the man is vying for his last big deal (imo). I think it’s far more likely that he gets a 3 year deal (like mentioned above 3/45m). This may or may not come with a team option but either way, it does provide him a chance for a 2 year deal should he keep up pace with the MLB rigors. No way would I want him on my team with a 5 year deal though!
He’ll get at least 4yr/$56 mil
If jay Bruce gets five years. Or even 4. Then arrieta and Darvish are gonna get 200+ mil each
No mention of Lorenzo Cain? I would say he’s easily the top alternative to JDM, and for my money a better investment even than JDM.
As a Blue Jay’s fan. Bruce has been linked to Toronto for a few years now and I understand the need for a power left handed bat. However Bruce’s best defensive years are already 4 years behind him and he is only 30 years old. I see him as a Jose Bautista 2.0 that is 6 years younger. I hope they don’t land him at 4 years. I would not offer him more than 2 years, but that won’t get it done anyways.
A few months ago the Mets couldn’t give him away, and now he is asking for 5 years? He and his agent are delusional.
Bruce is a 30-year-old one-dimensional power hitter in a market filled with lots of one-dimensional power hitters.
.249/.319/.472/.790 with an average of 27 home runs in 141 games played for his career. When you add in that he has started only 115 and 124 games the past 2 seasons and you don’t have a guy that is worth even considering for a 5-year deal.
He did hit more home runs than average for him, but so did everyone. It was a record your for home runs in baseball.
3 years/$45 million would be the most I could see any team going and even that is an overpay. I could easily see him getting 2/$24MM or that same deal with an option for a 3rd year.
Man I really don’t see anything over a 3 year 42 million dollar deal. I would like to think teams are slowly coming to the conclusion that aging, one dimensional sluggers are not a sound investment.
He can ask that all he wants. I remember that bum Trumbo wanted something similar and he ended up with way less.
They’ll probably end up signing Nap again which is totally fine by me. I love that guy.