As things stand right now, the Nationals are clear favorites to win the NL East pennant once again in 2018. Fangraphs projects that their current roster would win about 91 games in the coming season, and sees all four of its division rivals as sub-.500 teams. That’s great for the Nats, but likely doesn’t mean much to its fan base at this point, who have seen their home team clinch the division in four of the past six seasons (and the NL’s best record in two of them) only to lose in the NLDS. For a team that’s set to lose Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy and Gio Gonzalez to free agency next winter, there seems to be some pressure to push for a World Series Title while they still have the pieces to do so.
While the overall look of Washington’s roster is fantastic, they have a gaping hole at the catcher position, as MLBTR’s own Jeff Todd examined back in October. The situation remains the same; Matt Wieters performed below replacement level in 2017, and at this point he can’t be counted on to provide much value. Pedro Severino hasn’t yet done anything to convince the club that he’s ready to produce against big-league pitching. By finding a catching upgrade, the team could improve its lineup considerably and thereby improve its chances to make a deep postseason run. That being said, the market has shifted a bit since Todd’s initial assessment.
First off, it’s somewhat surprising that the Nationals haven’t addressed their need already. It’s been clear since the beginning of the offseason. In addition to our own post on the matter, the baseball community has seen Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs examine the situation in detail back at the beginning of December.
Of course, it’s not exactly a quick-fix situation. The best catching option on the market at the outset of the winter was Jonathan Lucroy, who isn’t without his own set of question marks. Welington Castillo was scooped up by the White Sox by beginning of December, taking away another potential fit. And it’s not as though MLB teams will freely trade talented catchers; a premium position comes at a premium rate. Acquiring a catcher on the trade market without diminishing some other area of the major league roster would be a difficult task to accomplish.
The Nationals have been connected to a few players throughout the offseason already, but they’ve got fairly limited resources to make such an acquisition. They’re already above the luxury tax threshold, so an addition on the free market will technically cost 130% of whatever he signs for; that dramatically reduces the cost-effectiveness of that avenue. And the team seems likely to hang onto top prospects Victor Robles and Juan Soto due to their immense values. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the options available…
Free Agents:
Jonathan Lucroy: As recently as the first half of last season, Lucroy was one of the top catchers in the game. He posted a .292/.355/.500 slash line with 24 home runs during a 2016 campaign split between the Brewers and Rangers. But his power fell off significantly last season, which led him to put up one of the worst fWAR totals of his career (1.2). Lucroy managed to hit only six homers despite a notoriously homer-happy trend throughout the league and a significant number of plate appearances in Coors Field.
Due to his steep offensive drop-off and an equally stark decline in pitch-framing skills, Lucroy will probably only require a one- or two-year contract. But he’s no guarantee to provide value even on the two-year, $24MM deal that MLBTR predicted for him at the outset of the winter, and it’s not even a certainty that he’ll provide enough of an upgrade over Wieters to justify an eight-figure commitment with a 30% surcharge stemming luxury tax considerations.
Alex Avila: The soon-to-be 31-year-old Avila started off hot with the Tigers last year, but cooled down after being traded to the Cubs midseason. Still, he maintained a .369 on-base across 112 plate appearances even after the trade. The Nats have already been connected to Avila this offseason. He could be had at very low price, and would therefore be a low-risk signing for the club.
The biggest issue with entertaining Avila as a serious option is the fact that he probably can’t be counted upon to take a significant workload behind the plate. The veteran hasn’t caught more than 650 innings in any of the past three seasons, meaning he might not provide the type of upgrade the Nationals need.
Trade Options
J.T. Realmuto: As Todd pointed out three months ago, this is a fairly obvious match. The fit only became stronger in theory when the Marlins sold off Giancarlo Stanton, then Dee Gordon, later Marcell Ozuna and most recently Christian Yelich. As things stand at the present moment, the Nationals are said to be the organization that is “most heavily engaged” in talks with Miami concerning their catcher. While their reported unwillingness to include Robles or Soto would seem a significant roadblock on the surface, it’s looking as though the Fish might just be willing to settle for a package comprised of other assets.
Yasmani Grandal: If the 2017 playoffs are to be seen as any indication, Austin Barnes has usurped the starting job from Grandal, leaving the veteran switch-hitter destined to serve in a backup role for 2018. He’s set to earn $7.9MM after avoiding arbitration with the Dodgers, and will become a free agent following the season. The 2010 first-rounder has averaged over 2.5 fWAR across the past three seasons, meaning he could prove an excellent upgrade for the Nats at a far cheaper cost than someone like Realmuto.
Yan Gomes/Roberto Perez: The two Tribe backstops have been steady if unimpressive in recent years, and each can be controlled for at least three more seasons. Both are stellar defensive players with penchants for throwing out a remarkable percentage of opposing base-stealers, and each would be a clear upgrade over Wieters. Trading either player to the Nationals would pave the way for top prospect Francisco Mejia to crack the big league roster, though the Indians may perhaps prefer to hold him at Triple-A for a while due to service time considerations and/or need for further seasoning.
Francisco Mejia: Mejia gets his own paragraph due to the considerably different circumstances surrounding his hypothetical trade candidacy. Being that he’s blocked by Gomes and Perez at the MLB level, the Tribe could perhaps be willing to part with him. The logic of this match declines from there, however, as it’s difficult to imagine what the Nationals could (or would) possibly offer to improve Cleveland’s shot at a World Series title in 2018.
James McCann: The rebuilding Tigers don’t seem likely to be competitive in any of the next three seasons, meaning McCann will probably be on the move sooner or later. Though he’s impressive defensively, McCann’s bat has proved below-average across 1,201 big league plate appearances. That could (in theory) make him more affordable than other trade options while still offering an upgrade over Washington’s in-house options.
Realmuto please!!!
They’ve made it clear they would cost Robles. Hit something the Nats would or should do
If they come off Robles or Soto there is certainly a fit
Nats have the prospects to get it done. Will cost similar to Yelich though
No one has made it clear they want robles…
The Nats really can’t give up either; not with Murphy and Harper both potentially gone next season. Plus Zimmerman is gone in 2019. There is no recovering from those kind of losses if Robles and Soto are dealt. Realmuto doesn’t even represent as high a value as Soto..
Idk how soto means they cant replace murphy or zimmerman.
Murphy hits the open market so does lemahieu and dozier. Also at 32-33 idk if teams would be willing to offer a 4 year deal meaning nats could.
Also 1st can be somewhat easily replaced.
Peric…..Robles & Soto won’t be dealt….probably just Soto.
Nats have a Team Option at $18 Mil for 2020. If he continues to rake, they may exercise that. Robles & oto are both OF’s, so I don’t know why 1B is an issue with them…..
Rendon & Roark are FA’s after 2019
Nats have a messy financial situation coming soon….Scherzer & Strasburg cost $76 Mil in 2019 (about $38M each)….Yikes!!!
Realmuto is an excellent catcher, at a Premium position……Plenty of OF’s around……Not A LOT of Premium Catchers.
I thought Soto was an OF which neither Zimmerman nor Murphy are. So what does trading Soto have to do with either Zimmerman or Murphy being a free agent next year
Sickles considers Soto a potential future impact left-handed bat. He has a mature approach to the plate at age 19. Sickels thinks he is at least a top 30 prospect. If not for injuries he might have landed in AA. Given his left-handed bat and lack of speed it seems like he would be the perfect choice for first base allowing the Nats to place top defensive players at each spot in the outfield.
Soto has the potential to have more impact offensively than Robles unless Robles develops significant power as he matures.
Might get away with no robles
But soto, kieboom, crowe, severino or read, and 1 of stevenson or bautista who are mlb ready ish OF will be needed
Nats aren’t trading Soto and Kieboom. Realmuto will cost significantly less than Yelich did.
Having the prospects to get it done is much different from being willing to trade them. You have to be willing to trade them to get it done.
no one from the Marlins has said that and I don’t think anyone thinks that it would take Robles to get the deal done
The old man Ted Lerner should have his lawyer set up an account in the Cayman Islands for Jeter, just double what Jeter’s expected commission would be from further lowering the payroll and Jeets will take a collection of lesser “prospects” and talk about how his guys value them more than others and he “has to trust his people”.
Except Jeter is not the GM in Miami, it’s Michael Hill who’s in charge!
Why do dummies think that Jeter is a GM.
Hello idiots. Jeter is part owner and the ownership rep. He is not negotiating trades
Wilson Ramos and Matt Wieters are cash neutral in 2018, I could see the Nats sending Wieters and a prospect to Tampa to re-acquire Ramos or the two being swapped in a bigger deal involving Odorizzi or Colome
Ramos catching in the NL? After 2 major knee injuries and surgeries? Wilson will never be a starter behind the plate especially given his defensive weaknesses.
Ramos caught 62 of the Rays 86 games after coming off the DL in June…
Hope it’s Alex Avila — I’ve Always been a fan of his game, comeback player of the year, candidate, 2018.
It’s too bad his dad won’t sign him 😛
Nothing personal son, it’s business. ^^^
When the Cubs traded for Wilson and Avila, I thought Wilson was supposed to be the difference maker. Turns out that Avila was clutch as hell. I hope he finds a home as a starter/platoon guy.
Please take Grandal off our hands. The Dodgers need the payroll so they can do something, anything, this offseason.
How’s that for a sales pitch?
Grandal should be option 1 and could be had without fedde kieboom robles or soto being involved.
All or nothiny type move.
Yup, the Nationals’ needs are immediate and short term, and I’m pretty sure the Dodgers would take a mid-level prospect for Grandal just to get the payroll off their books and give them the ability to plug other holes. But it makes too much sense to actually happen.
I find it difficult believing the Dodgers would do one of their chief NL rivals any favors by dealing Yasmani Grandal to the Nationals for the 2018 season. Regardless of how much luxury tax relief it might provide the Dodgers, why help another contender in desperate need of a starting catcher? I’d ask the moon in prospects or for an impacting MLB contributor if I were Andrew Friedman or no deal.
The Dodgers need to worry about the Dodgers first. It wont matter what the Nats do, if the Dodgers dont make the dance.
If you come at us with “we need to move Grandal to clear money” then no, you aren’t getting an interesting mid-level prospect in return. Two recently-drafted in later round teenage pitchers, not on a top 30 team list? Sure. If LAD takes money on, then you get that mid-level top 20ish guy.
lmao man the Dodgers have all-stars everywhere, they’re a shoo-in to make the postseason.
So here’s the thing, any move to shed Grandal doesn’t truly shed what people think it might. They aren’t going to head into the year with two green catchers and does anyone truly believe Barnes is going to catch 130? So if you trade Grandal ok, but there’s still a need for a backup catcher. And is Avila really going to cost under 4M? Probably not best case scenario is you’re net saving is 4M. Realistically you’re not saving much. I don’t think the Dodgers care about trading him to a contender if they get something back to help their big league club.
My “sales pitch” was meant to be a bit facetious. Everybody knows the Dodgers’ payroll situation, especially the other GMs. Nobody would believe that the Dodgers would want to move Grandal for any larger reason than they have other pressing roster issues that they can’t address given the luxury tax threshold.
On paper the Nationals and the Dodgers line up well for this trade. The Nationals need a starting catcher for a year (after which they have a bunch of roster rethinking to do), and Grandal is available for that term. At $8M he gets something back. I wouldn’t say that the Dodgers don’t care who, but that return would be secondary to being able to dip into the free agent market.
My assumption is, if the Dodgers trade Grandal they go with Barnes to start and Farmer to back up.
My whole point is they aren’t going into the year with 2 green catchers. That would be a terrible idea especially for an org that prides itself in depth.
Just about the only move they’ve made so far is to trade away depth for payroll. So maybe the FO doesn’t see it as being such a terrible idea.
But Realmuto is younger, cheaper and better than Grandal with more control. He’s plainly the better fit if the Nats can give up what it takes.
The Fish are developing a fairly solid group of young guys including some good arms which was their main weakness before. They could be a force in the NL East in a few years.
I agree, John Sickels updated his list and they have 16 B- grade or better prospects according to him. That’s actually more than most teams. They could end up with a top 5-10 farm by opening day if they move Realmuto, Castro, Straily and Bour, not to mention Prado, Chen and Ziegler.
of course realmuto it cost more and Prospects though a lot more that’s why I’d rather have them get grandal
Not to mention prado Chen and Ziegler because they’ll cost prospects or a ton of money eaten to get rid of.
Make that sales pitch to Bob Nutting. He’s sitting on an economic volcano, evidently. Sounds painful.
I’d love to get Grandal, though. If I ran an NL team, I’d find as many switch hitters as I could.
I still cannot believe Oakland is trying to be a sneaky good team in 2018, but have Maxwell, Phegley and Garneau as their only catching depth. Those 3 are awful at baseball. Grandal is a massive upgrade and the A’s need also to spend money if MLB is cracking down on pocketing revenue sharing. They could take on all Grandal’s money and give up some no-name lottery ticket teenage prospects in return.
Sean Murphy might end up being a backup too if he can’t hit a lick. He could be an all-star, he could also be Phegley but with better defense, aka backup. Grandal is a nice move, because if they don’t contend he easily could be flipped at the deadline.
Grandal is perfect for the Nats at the moment, and the price will definitely be right. Realmuto is the long term answer, but since MIA has their heart set on Robles, that’s a stopper. WAS will probably have to eat at least half of Wieters’ contract just to offload him, but that’s easily digestible.
Nice✅
Miami cant take anything less than Robles
What? Yes they can.
Soto, Kieboom, 1 of Read/Reetz/Severino, Crowe and 1 of stevenson or bautista who are close to mlb ready.
yes
Pretty sure the Marlins aren’t shopping based on MLB-readiness, but yeah, 4 non-Robles prospects, but still in Nats top 10, gets Realmuto. Soto, Kieboom, Fedde and Read get it done if Robles isnt in the deal.
Nats aren’t trading Soto.
Then nats arent getting realmuto. Sorry to break it to you. Enjoy grandal or another season of wieters behind the plate.
The marlins arent going to trade realmuto to a division rival for anything less than soto and kieboom plus others.
Sources?
I don’t really care if the Nats add Realmuto. He is a nice catcher but Weiters isn’t why the Nats lost in the playoffs. I think Rizzo would love to add JT but he is very unlikely to part with Soto, especially with Bryce uncommitted.
I think Kieboom, Fedde, and a couple others get it done. Marlins have very little leverage considering the deal they made with Stanton and the fact that Realmuto has asked to be traded.
How big of a commission is a team willing to pay Jeter directly? Whomever pays the most gets the best deal.
LOL if they got a deal involving Soto they wouldn’t take it so fast. and I think there’s good deals to be had even without him
How about Carson Kelly from the Cardinals? They have another catcher coming up that has a better bat (at least so far) than Kelly has exhibited. Just a thought
Just curious, in said scenario, what do the cards get in return?
Well obviously they would have to get a very good return for the 2nd top catching prospect in baseball. They could negotiate to fill their own needs, either more bullpen help , or decent prospects. No one expects them to give him away. Depends on how bad the Nats want him. If not, then keep him. It never hurts to shop him just to see what the return could bring.
Oh agreed, was just curious if you had any specific names you were thinking of, or just a general/could make sense for both thought
I really don’t know a lot about the Nats, but in the case they pry away Carson Kelly from the Cards, I see a Kelly+outfielder (CF eligible) for bullpen arm (Madson, Doolittle) +Back end starter (Roark, GioGon). Again, I’m seriously lacking on info here but I think that’s what it would look like
Cardinals are not in need of an Outfielder, if you haven’t noticed they have been trading them. And i am huge cardinals fan.. the cardinals will not be able
To get two Mlb players for unproven Kelly. Besides catcher the biggest need for nationals last year at the trade deadline was bullpen help. They won’t trade that for a catcher that isn’t proven to be better then their in house option.
Gio Gonzalez isn’t exactly a “back end starter”. Go look at his stats.
ERA doesn’t exactly mean everything. Mid-rotation, yes, front? No. Go look at his FIP etc.
So in this scenario, in the Nats’ last season with Harper and Murphy, they give up their #3/4 starter and their closer/setup guy for a catcher who hasn’t been able to hit in the majors yet plus an outfielder to join the MAT/Robles/Stevenson logjam? Where did you get the idea the Nats were aiming to compete after all their stars left?
Depending on where Kelly is on top 100 lists, maybe a similar prospect.
I always liked the Franklin Barreto-for-Kelly straight up challenge trade for both sides, a lot.
I was thinking the same thing, but what would the cards want in return, and what would the cards do if Molina got injured???
Kelly is in the same situation as Andrew Susac two years ago. The Cards basically have to trade him.
Speaking of which, is Andrew Susac still a thing?
Last I saw he was in the minors with the Brewers.
Exactly, STL is blowing it by not moving him at his peak trade value.
Except for Posey was 28 two years also, and Molina is 35 this year. These situations are not comparable. Molina will not be a factor if Kelley is moved.
They are comparable in that the Cards are not going to use Kelly as their everyday catcher as long as Molina is around. He’ll never get a real chance until Molina’s contract expires or he is traded.
They need a major league proven catcher not a very good catching prospect. Realmuto, Ramos, Grandall Their big window is 2018.
Martin would likely be available
Russell Martin’s contract is a great example of how being poor/cheap helps the Pirates (not as often as it hurts them, though) in some ways.
They can sign bad contracts (Liriano, Daniel Hudson, etc.) but can never sign terrible contracts, like Martin’s. They can’t afford them.
The Nats don’t need to do anything with the catcher position. Severino is as good right now defensively as any of the catchers mentioned. He is a great defensive talent. If he hits major league pitching in spring training matures he can be a great player remember he is still young. Nats have a few other things to worry about like resigning some guys and getting their minor league pitching major league ready.
It seems that Jeter getting Dembo has helped the Marlins evaluating the prospects. He helped Cashman with his picks.. The Nats need to upgrade , this year they have to make it to the world series.
Here is a real out-of-the-box suggestion for signing a free agent catcher: Miguel Montero. It would be quite the ironic story, given that the Nats were directly responsible for him getting DFA’d back in June by stealing seven bases off of him — of course, Montero throwing Arietta under the bus after the game probably didn’t help him much.
Sounds good, get the guy who your fans remember being the worst catcher of all time. That sure won’t make anyone mad!
Montero isn’t MLB-quality anymore.
Take Perez or Gomes from the Tribe. They need to get out of that jam eventually to open up a slot for Mejia.
Chris Stewart would be a good choice. He has been a backup for the pirates for several years now.
Royals say they aren’t Trading him but could use Taylor in CF and could give up a Starter or even Closer. Austin Romine? Flowers or Suzuki? Gattis? A.J. Ellis? Fransisco C.? Swihart?
Since the Pirates traded Cutch, maybe they’ll trade Cervelli
If he still plays geovany Soto go there. He can’t be much worse than their recent catchers. Actually he could. Bes been consistently bad since his 2nd year in the ML.
Why is Salvador Perez not an option? Just curious.
I think Nationals’ bigger need is fifth starter. They can survive first few months of 2018 without a catcher and if necessary, fill it around ASB. On the other hand, they have no fifth established starter, It is basically Cole and co right now.
Glad you pointed this out, because I had Perez on the list and later removed him. I have a hard time believing the Nationals would pay what it takes to acquire him, and I’m not even sure the Royals would be willing to trade Perez.
Now Perez is someone the Nats should consider trading a Soto based package for. But I’m not sure Soto being the headliner would get it done. I could see this being a trade deadline type deal tho. If Robles takes over at CF and if Soto is mashing in minors then Soto, MAT, KBoom plus a couple pitching prospects could get it done.
Yeah, four years of cost-controlled catcher of Perez’s caliber will cost a lot. I still think Nationals need to concentrate on pitching. You can never have enough pitching.
Red Sox are catcher heavy….Sandy Leon probable had back cheap
hes not really an upgrade over Wieters
Robles for Mejia is a sick challenge trade, although Robles is a 65 grade and Mejia is 60, so I’d think the Indians might need to add a low level high ceiling prospect, but still, works for both sides pretty well. The Nats have like 800 MLB-quality OFs, losing Robles actually doesn’t really hurt too much if they’re getting a plus catcher (rarer) in return. The Indians have more C’s on the farm too.
A prime catcher prospect is much harder to find than an OF prospect that are very common, therefore Mejia carries more value IMO.
disagree…elite OF prospects are not very common. Plus, catching prospects don’t pan out more frequently than OF prospects.
Yet the comment above says Robles is expendable due to enough OF choices and you need to fill a very hard hole to fill…go figure.
That premise only works if you 100% buy into MAT’s year and believe Eaton will be like his old self. Just because Nats have lots of OF options doesn’t mean they should just trade Robles. Maybe they should and maybe they will but their owners notoriously are loath to part with top prospects and veto many deals involving them.
Robles is the better Prospect that is unanimous among anyone who knows anything about prospects
He ranks higher on the mlb prospect list, not disputing that, but both are rated 60s overall, not 65 for Robles and only 60 for Mejia and therefore requiring another high ceiling prospect to even it out.
It’s much harder to get a very good catcher than it is to get outfielders !
Thank you, my point exactly.
Besides, both sides are looking for immediate help, not prospects that are expected to pay off down the road.
The best catching prospect, who is coincidentally ML ready, is Francisco Mejia from Cleveland. Cleveland has two ML catchers signed/controlled through 2021. Mejia has been discussed in several trade scenarios because of the control and the satisfaction with the two backstop already on the roster. Cleveland biggest needs appear to be RHH OF’er, preferable able to play CF/RF. The Cleveland bullpen saw Bryan Shaw & Joe Smith leave, however, their bullpen is still pretty solid. and, last & certainly not least, Cleveland is always looking for salary relief..
The two clubs seem to fit fairly well..
A deal where the Indian’s catcher and salary relief (Jason Kipnis @ $ 13.5 MM for 2 yrs plus an option) would fill the catching need and provide protection for the possible murphy departure and/or to make sure Murph is okay following knee surgery.
The Indians would “want” Victor Robles, but would probably settle for a more proven player like Michael A Taylor as more of a “win now” replacement and a bullpen arm (eric fedde?) or a wild card (Juan Soto) could be the frame work for a deal.
The Nats are not trading Robles at all and are certainly not trading Soto if they have to take on the Kipnis contract.
While I’m a huge Kipnis fan I like this suggestion.
Avila would be a fine choice. He and Wieters could tag team behind the plate thus playing to each other’s strength. Nats have plenty of big bats so getting consistent at bat from the catchers spot is all that’s required. No need to sell the Farm!
How would Cameron Rupp possibly look in the 8 hole? Not a star by any means, but consistent and a pretty decent game caller. Phillies have Alfaro without options and Knapp as well – either Rupp or Knapp are without a roster spot unless the Phillies carry 3 for some reason.
As a Tigers fan I would love to see McCann go to the Nats. I think they are expecting a trade with the addition of Derek Norris and Brayan Pena when they already have McCann, Hicks, and Greiner. McCann for Kieboom would be great but I’m not sure how much the Nats value McCann.
It would help McCann’s situation if he could hit at all, but he can’t hit the broad side of a barn against right-handed pitching, which makes him a terrible complement to Wieters. McCann’s a career .230/.274/.322/.596 hitter against RHP after 4 years in the majors (he couldn’t hit RHP in the minors either) so improvement in that area isn’t gonna happen. McCann would be a great backup catcher to a lefty starting catcher and has little value otherwise. While the author claims that McCann is a good defensive catcher, he absolutely isn’t. He can throw but he can’t block, receive, or call a game. So if you want a catcher who can throw and hit lefties but sucks at everything else, James McCann is your guy.
I wouldn’t be at all suprised to see the Braves trade Flowers or Suzuki to the Gnats sometime a bit before the trade deadline…Suzuki/Flowers for OF Daniel Johnson or 2B/SS Yasel Antuna…With Johnson being my first choice.
Both, especially Flowers, have revitalized their careers with the Braves, and both have proven to become pretty legit starting-caliber catchers. Seems like a fair trade to me, but what do the GNats fans think?? Lol
Sorry, Flowers only has 1 year of control. Nats won’t trade Johnson or Antuna for 3 months of Flowers.
Cervelli or Salvy?
I don’t understand it. Weiterrs is a Scott boras client. He should be getting at least a $200b 10 year extension.
I think if you’re the Dodgers you have to keep Grandal.. Barnes did great in a backup role and for the short time he was a starter nothing outrageous. He came up with some big hits in the postseason and played great D but that’s about what we can expect from Grandal for the most part.. I don’t think the payroll relief in big enough to justify trading an all star caliber catcher for nearly nothing.