Some news and notes from around the NL West…
- In a reader mailbag piece, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune casts doubt on the Padres’ chances of trading for Christian Yelich. The team’s pursuit of Eric Hosmer indicates a desire to acquire a younger star player who will still be productive when the Padres return to contention, so Yelich (who is over two years younger than Hosmer) would theoretically fit the bill. The Marlins, however, are understandably demanding elite prospects in any Yelich deal, and Lin doubts the Padres would part with top minor leaguers like Fernando Tatis Jr., Mackenzie Gore, or Michel Baez when San Diego’s own rebuild is still ongoing. Lin’s piece is well worth a full read, as he answers several other questions about the Padres roster.
- There hasn’t been any connection between Yu Darvish and the Giants this winter, though The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly (subscription required) opines that San Francisco should offer the free agent hurler a one-year deal in the $30MM range. Essentially, Baggarly is proposing a very high-priced version of the “pillow contract” strategy, wherein Darvish would build more value in 2018 with an eye towards finally landing a major long-term deal next winter. Such a contract would put the Giants over the luxury tax threshold for 2018, though they’d avoid another multi-year commitment while landing a star pitcher for a roster clearly designed to win now.
- Rockies manager Bud Black shared some positive health news about David Dahl, as Black told the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters that Dahl should be “full go” at the start of Spring Training. “He’s engaged, he’s running, he’s lifting weights, he’s swinging at 100 percent. Right now there are no concerns, and medically everybody feels really good about David,” Black said. Dahl was limited to just 19 minor league games in 2017 due to a stress reaction in his rib cage, and his potential return gives Colorado another intriguing piece for its outfield.
Why can’t hosmer just sign with a team!
Because he’s asking for their first born child when he’s worth the 8th born child.
I love all my children the same.
Lol me too… but come on.. that 8th born.. not even the same.
Why does it matter?
Padres farm is deep enough where we don’t have to trade Tatis, Gore or Baez to get him. 2 of this will be top 5/10 when new rankings come out.
Why would Preller want to trade with the Marlins? So that they can go crying to MLB about OUR medicals after the player they trade us gets injured?
The Padres knowingly hid information. Their GM got punished for it. The Padres were in the wrong. The Marlins were not.
Chris Paddack had “nothing wrong with him” and needed Tommy John after 3 starts with the Padres? Sounds fishy to me.
Did he pass a physical from the Padres Dr’s ? That’s enuff said on that then.
Colin Rea had to pass a physical by the Marlins for the trade to initially go through. So did Drew Pomeranz for the Red Sox. Had Pomeranz failed a physical or Rea the trade wouldn’t have gone through to begin with.
burn sizzle
Chris Paddack wasn’t being treated for an injury right before being traded. Colin Rea was and informed the Marlins of his treatment, which was not on his medical records. The Padres kept 2 separate medical files. One for private use and one for other team’s to see so they could gain an edge trading with other teams. The Padres had less than 10 medical entries by the All Star Break, where teams will typically have around 60. They did shady things and were punished accordingly. Even so, if Chris Paddack had any injury concern, I’m sure it was documented as the Padres didn’t seem to mind taking in damaged goods in the form of Carter Capps who was recovering from TJS.
Give them Espinosa and paddock plus jank
Lmao
Damn, no one thought the Giants could go after Darvish but it makes sense.
I also think the Dodgers get Yelich out of nowhere, same deal, there is a fit there – it just pushes Pederson to a 4th OF role for a year then Puig leaves after this season so Yelich-Taylor works longer term.
Doesn’t Puig have two more years of control?
Baseball-reference says 2018 is his last year, and this is his 7th season after signing as an ama FA
But he didn’t spend all of 2013 and 2016 in the Majors so isn’t he just shy of 5 years of service time now? Or is it like Cespedes where he becomes eligible for free agency despite not having 6 years?
All I know is he signed a free agent contract, 7/42M. I don’t know why there would be arbitration years after it, but bball-ref shows that too. Regardless in my scenario the Dodgers might also just move Puig, as to offset the Yelich money and Pederson goes everyday..
He signed that contract 5 years ago so that means he has 2 more years.
Yes Puig has an arb year after 2018. It seems to be a wide misconception that Puig is a free agent after 2018
Kenley…..That’s the info listed at spotrac .com…….generally considered a reliable source for this kind of information.
Where did you find the information that you provided? I’d love to have a 2nd source to check on contracts & FA status……
I still don’t think it makes sense for the giants because the luxury tax issue is a long term issue, if they can avoid the tax this year it allows them to free spend in years with a better free agent class and if they can do so while keeping prospects it keeps from a tear down. You have to figure that 3 years from now or so you have a core of Posey, Crawford, panik, longoria(assuming bum takes off in fa) and after that it is all young guys that you draft this year, next year or her in trades, if you want to supplement that from the fa class it is going to take getting under it this year and trusting in bounce back, the bigger thing that you need to address is moving salary or signing low a guy that you can put in CF this year.
Giants should trade a pitcher for a good center fielder then sign darvish
Nah, they should sign Darvish and Cain.
I agree Justin. If the idea is to go for it In 2018, then go all they way! cant say you’re going for it and then worry about the cap.
Mixed messages.
That’s original
If they were under last year I would agree but they will be under the highest tax and lose picks next year if they don’t keep under this year
Imo, signing Darvish is not worth going over the luxury tax for the Giants this year. Even with Darvish, I think the Dodgers win the division again. Then SF has the 1 game playoff against a team like MIL, ARI, COL, or someone else.
I agree it isn’t worth going over but I am not sure what the Dodgers will do, you can certainly say that they performed well last year but there could be a lot of sophomore regression too, but even if there is regression the Rox and the snakes weren’t too shabby either and if the guys on the giants that didn’t do well but should have mostly due to injury, cueto, bum, Crawford melancon, Smith, belt – then the darvish add isn’t that huge and if they don’t then you will be in the basement again with no picks and you can’t sign anyone next year so you have to totally teardown if you sign darvish
Wolf…..Thanks for that “single sentence paragraph”…….Wow.
Sophomore regression???
Bellinger is the only player who will be a sophomore in 2018. The rest of the starters are beyond that….except maybe Barnes, but Grandal is still listed as the starter.
Dodgers will probably perform pretty much as they have. I doubt the Giants can catch them.
you are looking at bellinger, taylor, barnes as young guys that outperformed expectations, seager that underperfomed which may or may not be a trend and a rotation that is still kershaw and guys that might do great or might not – I am not saying they can’t do well but I think it is pretty hard to think of them automatically as a lock. Both colorado and arizona showed an upward trend last year so I don’t think the dodgers are necessarily running away with it.
Sophomore regression ? How do you figure that? It’s not like they were a team of all rookies last year
Yelich wants out of Miami cause they are gonna loose. What happens when he gets traded to another loosing team?
Maybe he’ll loosen up,maybe he wont
Nice to see someone tighten up the spelling in the comments section.
You think they might tighten up though?
No way Darvish takes a 1 year deal. He’s the top free agent pitcher with no qualifying offer attached to him. The chance of getting qualified alone,could hurt his value.
If he takes a 1 year deal the Dodgers will be very pleased
I wonder if the guy who wrote it honestly thought it was a realistic idea? Do these guys have a quota to fill for number of articles so when they have nothing of note to write they just make up garbage?
Baggarly usually is pretty reliable, so it’s probably just that the SF Chronicle wants an article for tomorrow’s paper.
He doesn’t write for that paper
Right. Keep hearing about how the Giants want to avoid the luxury tax. I don’t think they want to sign Darvish for $30 million, when they have to beat the Dodgers to win their division.
Sabean has stated multiple times there is no plan to stay under tax.
Huh? Wouldn’t signing Darvish HELP them beat the Dodgers?
I suggest the Indians trade Danny Salazar, Francisco Mejia and Tristan McKenzie for Christian Yelich.
Replace salazar with prospects. 3 years of salazar wouldnt interest the marlins.
Im sure theyd have more interest in bradley, jones, naquin, greg allen, etc.
Pair some prospects with mckenzie and mejia.
Marlins need OFers. If they trade Yelich they will literally have no one on the depth chart with more than a few games in the OF.
Bro they do not care. Obviously.
You must not be an Indians fans? Is Yelich really this overrated?
Darvish signing a 1 year deal sounds ludicrous.
Agree and he’ll be one year older AND be attached to a QO? If he’s having trouble this offseason, imagine being a year older, having a QO attached AND having to compete with Machado, Harper, Donaldson AND potentially Kershaw????? He’s NOT accepting a 1 year deal.
Just because Darvish hasn’t signed yet does not mean he’s having trouble this off-season. He has interest from at least 6 teams, and possibly a 7th. He’s gotten offers. He isn’t having trouble, he’s just waiting for the best and final offer. You make it sound like he’s struggling to hook up with any team this year. He’s the top FA pitcher. He’s playing it smart.
He won’t be competing against Harper, Machado, Donaldson
as FA. He’d be competing against other pitchers as a FA!
I wouldn’t count out Boras when it comes to getting a very large contract for Hosmer. But I really don’t get it. At his best he’s a B+/A- player. And every other year he’s not at his best. I don’t think he’s going to be awful, But an Ellsbury value to cost ratio is not impossible. It’s just not what you want when you shell out 6-7 years at $20M+ per year.
I count Boras out. I guess I just do not bow down to him like most of you
Pass on Yelich
While Yelich is certainly worth the price, the padres have in house options in Dickerson, Cordero, Pirela to play LF.
Rather keep the prospects and see if pirela can replicate his season or if cordero can live up to what hes doing in the minors and in the off season.
Do any of them even have the possibility of putting up a 4.5 WAR season? Maybe Cordero in a few years. Will Dickerson even play this year?
Does cordero or the rest have the capability to put up 4.5 WAR? No.
Does cordero/pirela/dickerson plus the prospects they save have more value to the padres hopes of long term success than yelich? Yes. Yelich is 1 position. Urias, tatis jr, and the pitchers are max 7 positions (ss, 2b, rotation).
Rather have pirela/cordero/dickerson, urias/tatis jr, morejon/quantril/gore/baez then yelich and whatever is left.
Only way yelich becomes a padre is if the marlins are willing to drive the price down by including prado and or chen. Doubt they would, would be stupid of the marlins.
Thus padres are better off going with in house options and keeping their prospects for the long haul.
I agree that the Padres are not really a fit in a straight prospect for Yelich trade. They are in the middle of a rebuild and trading away top prospects seems counterproductive.
The Marlins have said they need to get to $85-90 million and they are at $104 million now, so adding Tazawa or Prado to a Yelich deal and lowering the prospect cost seems pretty certain at some point. Teams seem unwilling to part with Acuna, Robles or other top MLB ready prospects so the Marlins are going to have to turn to plan B and that is including bad contracts with Yelich or Realmuto to meet their payroll needs and take lesser prospects in return.
Havnt the Padres been in the middle of a rebuild for the last 20 years or so?
2010- when they went 90-72. So last 8 years. Close though.
an Pades will be in rebuilt for the next 10 years. They will trade all there MLB roster of 2017 by end of 2019
That’s your ignorant opinion
Do any of them even have the possibility of putting up a 4.5 WAR season? Maybe Cordero in a few years. Will Alex D even play this year?
Pirela is more of a platoon/bench player, even if he replicates his success, but for now, he’s a serviceable outfield option for this team.
Having recently commented on the consistently ignorant postings of Braves fans across the internet, I hereby apologize for my fellow Padres fans in these comments. I didn’t realize so many Friar faithful ought to learn the tomahawk chop. Those of us who are sentient realize that none of the proposals above are in the same ZIP Code as reality.
The above deals make sense if the padres take on chen and or prado.
Renfoe, asuaje, lucchesi, laurer make sense for yelich and the marlins getting out from under a significant portion if not all of the chen contract.
Marlins would be foolish to attach negative assets to their best trade chip but if they want tazawa, ziegler, chen, prado off the books thats one way.
The 3 guys the Marlins have that have bad contracts but are tradeable are Prado, Tazawa, and Zeigler.
There is a pretty good chance that Chen does not pitch in 2018 at all, so a team would have to be willing to eat all of his deal without much shot of him returning to help them in 2018 at all. Anyone that took on his contract would be assured that no top prospects would have to be included for Yelich.
For your Padres that might look like Yelich and Chen (and his $53 million contract) for Jankowski, Cordero, and a lottery ticket outside of their top 30 prospects.
That’s exactly why all this talk about Yelich going to the Padres is unrealistic. The prospect cost is going to be way too high. Those deals mentioned above would not cut it for the Marlins, even if they threw in one of their bad contracts.
After the underwhelming returns they got on guys like Stanton and Ozuna ( and I realize with Stanton it was more about getting out of his contract) Yelich now represents the Marlins’ best hope at getting their best return yet in the beginning stages of their rebuild. This means they’re going to demand guys like Tatis or Gore in talks with the Padres and they’re not going to settle for less. Hopefully these rumors can finally be put to rest.
I figured Luccessi and Laurer would have cracked the top 100 from BA, they didn’t. Renfroe was #44 last year, Spangenberg progressed well last year and a former 10th overall draft pick. I’d much rather take on payroll rather than give up prospects. But, to my point, I would not want to give up much more for Yelich considering our rebuild.
I think the fans are gonna be dissapointed again on any trades the Marlins make from now on!
Dahl is an intriguing part of the Rockies OF picture. If he is as healthy as this article opines, he could likely win a starting job. This is a great opportunity for him to step up and become a regular, although he will face stiff competition.
I agree that is Dahl is healthy and ready to go he should win an outfield spot for the Rockies. If the competition for that spot is stiff then I would be worried. His big competition would be Parra. If the Rockies want to be in serious contention for the NL West Crown, and have a shot at catching the Dodgers then they can’t have Parra as an everyday starter. An outfield of Blackmon, Desmond, and Dahl is the one they need if they are going to have a chance to beat the Dodgers this year (let alone the Dbacks). If Parra ends up with the job then the Rockies will be a Wild Card team at best. Their lineup is way too top heavy, and lacks depth…a healthy Desmond and Dahl will give the Rockies a shot at having some depth to their lineup.
Parra is a proven veteran who hit .309 last year. He can play all outfield positions but is better in the corners. His work helped get the Rox into the wildcard game. Cargo is still around, and Tapia is a good prospect with speed. And I am totally pulling for Dahl to come back strong. Depth may come from Valaika, McMahon and others. I’m hoping the SP develops and gets better. Yeah-go Rockies.
Parra is a 4th outfielder that provides strong defense, can hit for average (but little to no power), and has some speed on the bases. He is a very good backup that doesn’t hurt your team. He doesn’t help the team much either. In his two years he has provided a WAR of -1.9 (-2.7 in ’16 and 0.9 in ’17) In short Parra is not a everyday player that helps you win. I think he is perfect in a 4th outfielder role.
Dahl on the other hand could be an everyday player that helps the Rockies win. He has the skills to be an above average MLB player, and could very well help solve the issues on offense the Rockies had last year. If healthy, Dahl should easily beat Parra for a starting corner outfield position.
Injuries to Dahl and Desmond led to extra playing time for Parra last year, and he responded well. He also has the intangibles (spirit, spunk, and grit) that I like. Nonetheless, he is a 4th OF type. So who’s on 1B? Desmond, McMahon or do we bring back Reynolds? That seems up for grabs. I’m leaning towards Reynolds. And it could be someone not on the roster as yet.
Carlos Santana would’ve been my first choice, but looking at the available bats in free agency I think Logan Morrison makes sense. This could be the Rockies best year to contend for an NL West title given the Dodgers self imposed salary cap to stay below the luxury tax threshold. That said I don’t think the Rockies will sign him. Given the in house options McMahon seems the best option. He does have the upside and ability to be a Major League caliber First Baseman. Provided his offseason work and Spring Training performance warrant it then he should get a shot at the strating 1b job. I don’t think Mark Reynolds moves the needle much, or makes much sense right now.
McMahon is a left-handed bat who tore up the minors last year. He is only 23 and would certainly be a cheaper option than Reynolds, who is looking for a big pay hike from last year. That’s great IF McMahon can hit big league pitching and play defense. If he can’t do it then the Rox will look elsewhere for help. The Rockies offense sputtered last year because of Cargo’s letdown, Story’s offense and injuries to the outfielders. Injury is part of the game, and I hope we can keep that problem to a minimum. Good pitching remains the single most important factor for this team.
It makes perfect sense to sign Darvish to a 1 or multiple year contract with opt out after first year. With all the extra days off this year a four man rotation of Bumgarner, Cueto, Darvish, and Samarzdja would be a monster rotation. Stratton and Blach being used on weeks a 5th starter is needed this would also help our bullpen the other weeks one is not needed. I hope they are actually considering this as well as Arietta if not Darvish.
If Darvish signs a 1 year deal its going to be with the Dodgers not the Giants
Why? Dodgers traded for him. Its not like he chose to go there.
An opt out never makes sense for the team
Options, ntc , all part of negotiations that might help a team in signing a free agent over other teams that don’t offer options or ntc.
Exactly just like giving 7 year contracts don’t make sense but it’s called negotiating
It’s also up to team when player does opt out like AROD take opp and let him guy that’s history and so is Hank Steinbrenner input
Below are the 3 year stats and remaining contracts for Eaton last year and Yelich this year. I like Yelich and think he makes any team better, but would someone please explain to me why so many think it will take a 60 grade prospect as a headliner, plus other high end prospects to get him. Eaton was traded for two 55 FV and one 50 FV prospects last year and most thought it was an overpay by the Nationals.
Eaton 2014-16: 118 wRC+, 119 OPS+, 13.1 fWAR, 15.4 rWAR, 5 years/$38 million
Yelich 2015-17: 122 wRC+, 124 OPS+, 11.4 fWAR, 12.7 rWAR, 5 years/$58 million
These two players have very similar production and 5 years of remaining control. What has changed in the market in one season to demand a significantly better headliner in a potential Yelich trade other than that is what the Marlins are rumored to want?
Well, Eaton is 3 years older than Yelich and has a lower potential ceiling. Yelich is about to enter his physical prime and already has an amazing track record. Teams would be paying for a potential ceiling and his present floor for 5 years of well below market value production. I don’t think the Marlins are reaching on their ask. With that said, I don’t think any team will offer the haul they’re looking for. Might have to meet somewhere in between if they want to move him in the next 2 years.
Yelich will be traded for his age 26-30 seasons and Eaton was traded for his age 28-32 seasons, so Yelich is a bit younger, but you were trading for Eaton’s prime as well. Yelich is about 30% more expensive, so while still underpaid, he is significantly more expensive than Eaton was. Eaton was also coming off of a better 2016 than Yelich’s 2017. I still think the Marlins are asking for a lot more than the market has borne out for a very similar type player in the recent past and would be surprised if teams are willing to meet it, but I guess it only takes one team to blow up the market.
Facts. My thoughts exactly. Plus the Marlins aren’t in a position to hold out. Their main concern is saving money. Plus Adam Eaton plays CF. A more valued position. He’s a nice player, not a superstar
I think it’s comical teams don’t trade some of their top chips for an all star caliber OF in his prime. Who knows if those prospects will turn out, it’s likely they won’t perform at the major league level like yelich has/will. Teams are way too cautious, get these guys on the move!
Trading for Yelich would make too much sense. No way Preller of all people, ever does that!
Trading for yelich makes 0 sense. Losing prospects before the rebuild is finished makes no sense. Think youd understand this principal as a cubs fan when theo began gutting the farm for chapman quintana wilson/avila after their rebuild was finished. He didnt gut it before.
Padres have about 2 maybe 3 years left before the rebuild is finished. By that time ona, house, and other OFs might be ready
Trading for Yelich makes sense, we have so many prospects it would be fine to lose some. No way the “untouchables” will be traded, those being Tatis Jr, Gore, Quantrill, Baez, and Urias. I think we could see a Morejon, Renfroe, Asujae, and Janko swap for him and Prado. Marlins get a good arm, a worse-version of Stanton (Renfroe), a nice young CF (Janko), and a solid 2B (Asujae). Padres take on Prados ridiculous contract. With Yelich they now have 2 players to build around (if they dont sign hosmer) these two being Yelich and Myers.
Plus I dont see Ona and House being anything but bench bats, if THAT!
Even if we are 2 years away, our young guys will need a young vet to help them. We’d still have Yelich for a few more years, in time for us to contend and have been acclimated for a couple years. We could always extend him. I also believe in signing Hosmer. We’d upgrade 2 positions, 1B and LF(Myers). I also think we should make a run at Kuechel. Still be around $115 mil.
By 2020
Myers LF
Margot CF
Yelich RF
Tatis 3B/SS
Galvis SS if extended
Urias 2B
Hosmer 1B
Hedges C
Rotation
Kuechel
Lamet
Baez
Quantrill
Gore
Espinosa
Perdomo
Relievers
Hand
Maton
This is w out any other trades, draft picks or prospects who progress. That’s a team that can compete, and competes for a long time. And that’s a great defense. Why wait to make impact trades which is what every contender has to do. Can’t always rely on prospects. We can always flip Myers once he bounces back and contract balloons if Franchy continues to improve.
Padres2019
“We could always extend him.”
Yeah and we could always sign Manny Machado next year to play SS for us!
We’re not getting Yelich without giving up one (maybe even two) of the untouchables. Marlins asked for Acuna from the Braves in exchange for Yelich.
“Flip ya”
Doesn’t make sense at the price the Marlins are asking for
The Marlins’ asking price for Yelich is absurd. Yelich is basically being held hostage while Stanton and Ozuna were freed for next to nothing in return.
Stanton’s contract provides basically zero surplus value. Yelich is WAY underpaid relative to his performance. They are completely different in that regard, and the asking prices in any potential trade are going to reflect that fact.
Why are we going after stars when we have nothing to offer them short term? They are not interested in rebuilding clubs, so why bring them here where they will be pissed.
We need super star caliber prospects with high ceilings not 27 and 28 year old vets who are in their prime. I would only agree to bringing in a star if he was a 24 year old ace pitcher.