The Orioles have recently begun talks with free agent righty Lance Lynn, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link), though the report also suggests that there’s no particular momentum toward an agreement. It’s still anyone’s guess how the Baltimore rotation will be filled out. Despite entering the winter with three open starting jobs, the O’s only 40-man rotation addition to this point is Michael Kelly, a minor-league free agent who has yet to appear in the majors. With Lynn’s own market still largely undeveloped, it’s not surprising to hear of this link, though the question remains whether the Orioles will really open the pocketbook for a starter.
- Of course, other organizations are arguably in a similar position with regard to Lynn. Even taking a pessimistic view of his future, he profiles as a quality back-end starter that would upgrade just about every rotation in baseball. Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch argued recently that the Cardinals ought to be ready to grab Lynn — at least, if he can be had for a cheaper-than-expected contract. A similar sentiment has been batted around by Mets writers. (See, e.g., this post from John Harper of the New York Daily News and this Twitter exchange between MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal.) No doubt an argument for the pursuit of Lynn could also be constructed for quite a few other teams, which is the sort of reasoning that supports at least some reason to believe that he and other mid-level free agents can still find significant contracts.
- Veteran knuckler R.A. Dickey has not completely ruled out a return to the hill in 2018, Rosenthal also notes. All indications to date have been that Dickey would likely retire. But it seems there’s still at least an outside possibility he’ll pitch at 43 years of age. The Braves declined a club option over Dickey despite the fact that he turned in a productive 2017 season, throwing 190 innings of 4.26 ERA ball.
- David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution breaks down the current Braves thinking at third base. Many have wondered why Atlanta did not beat the offer made by the division-rival Mets for third baseman Todd Frazier, but O’Brien notes that the team would likely have had to dangle quite a bit more money to lure Frazier from his home town to play for an organization with a less experienced roster. Of even greater interest, O’Brien says the Braves front office likely doesn’t have much free cash to work with, making a pursuit of Mike Moustakas unlikely as well. The team’s contract swap with the Dodgers moved payroll forward to the 2018 balance sheet, so the odds are at this point that the club will simply allow its array of young infielders to sink or swim in the majors.
Give me the argument against the Cardinals giving Dickey a 1 yr/$8 million deal to provide some stable innings in the back of a rotation filled with youth and injury questions.
he was ok with the Braves, don’t see why he could not pitch for a year or two more.
MLB.com has this for the Braves rotation.
1. J. Teheran
2. M. Foltynewicz
3. B. McCarthy
4. S. Newcomb
5. L. Gohara
6. L. Sims
7. M. Fried
8. S. Kazmir
Roster Resource has it:
I think Sims beats Gohara. Sims put in the innings last year to start 25+ games. I don’t see a need for Dickey in Atlanta.
Wait…what. You think Sims beats Gohara? Really? Sims was not good. Gohara should be at the top of the rotation by the end of the season. I’d even state Newcomb’s leash isn’t very long if Fried continues to put up QS through spring training.
I’m really shocked how anyone could think that Sims would likely beat out Gohara. Some projection models suggest that Gohara should be the most productive pitcher on the team in 2018. Several experts also don’t expect Sims to be more than a bullpen piece in Atlanta.
While I agree that Dickey isn’t needed for the rotation, I think it is highly unlikely that Sims makes it over Gohara.
I don’t even think Sims has the swings-and-misses to be a bullpen piece. I’d think he’d be a throw-in in a trade for a significant piece later down the road, with the receiving team hoping to find the magic of a former 1st rd selection (throw in Jason Hursh while you’re at it).
“He’s not good.” Hopes other team values him in a trade. Which is it?
He’s not good enough to hold down a rotation spot from Gohara, Newcomb, Teheran, Folty, Fried and any of the other guys on the cusp (Soroka, Allard, etc.), but that’s not to say he has no value. He could be a decent bullpen piece for us, but someone might see him more as a starter and have the chance that I don’t think he’ll have in ATL.
If we were talking about Wisler/Aaron Blair, then I would said he’s “not good” and has no trade value.
Maybe a Kazmir to Cardinals deal of some sort?
Personally, I wish the Braves followed more of Tampa’s pitching model. Give the kid 32 starts at AAA. Make him FORCE you to put him on the roster.
I don’t think I’d disagree with it from a baseball prospective. $8 mil might be a little high but that’s what it might take for him. I feel like the Cardinals are definitely missing innings in the rotation
Agreed, 8 mil is a bit much maybe half that, plus incentives that could reach 8 with reasonable IP levels
It’d be a one-year deal. I’d give him 8 if he wanted 8.
I way he signs for that low on a 1 year deal. His stats last year were better than Darvish. I am sure he is regretting not taking the qualifying offer about now. Maybe 1 yr 12 million or 2 year 20
uh, no his stats were not better.
Look again Cubbiefan
I would take Lynn over Darvish all day.
We are talking about Dickey, not Lynn.
Why couldn’t/wouldn’t the Orioles do the same? He’d be an upgrade over Jimenez and Miley from last year.
I think he could help stabilize a lot of teams. I recall him saying that if he plays in 2018 he wants to play for a team close to Tennessee or something.
Braves are really the only team that fits his preference to be close to Tennessee. Unless he went to maybe Cincinnati or STL. Though neither is exactly right down the street and I don’t know which part of the state he lives in.
I don’t know either, but I have to assume he’s open to more than just the Braves, or else he would definitely retire. Has to be limited to Cincy, STL, ATL…maybe KC and Chicago (pushing it)?
lol. Yeah, kind of a tough state to want to live near and play Major League Baseball.
I don’t have the link anymore (and tbh kinda lazy to search for it), but I’m pretty sure that Dickey came out and said at one point that the only three teams he’d consider were Atlanta, Cincy and St Louis. That was before the Braves didn’t pick up his option. I just don’t think he wants to play.
I wouldn’t give him 1/$4 million. Are you kidding me at $8 million?
No thanks. We don’t need him. The Cardinals will give innings to their prospects before giving him a contract
That’s exactly what the braves need to do for 3B. Leave it alone and let the young guys figure it out. They were highly rated at one point for a reason. Got to think someone has the potential to figure it out
It’s a very good plan. With a sub 80 win expectancy, there’s no reason to push on to their salary limitation. Not to mention you’ll add yet another top 10 pick to that system in 2019 with the way things look.
I agree in general, but the guy they have left for third is Johan Camargo, so he’s the one that needs to build on his out-of-nowhere season. How Austin Riley develops will determine what they do going forward.
Camargo raked in winter ball. He may be legit. I’m totally cool with keeping him at 3rd and seeing what happens rather than signing Moustakas (who incidentally my phone keeps auto correcting to “mistakes”. Lol). If Swanson sucks (or gets hurt) and Riley or Rio start forcing their hand in AAA then SS is covered as well.
If Swanson isn’t the option at SS (and frankly, I think I’d rather seen him at 2B), Ozzie gets SS.
lynn burned that bridge to st louis last year. cardinals showed no sign of extending him.
He didn’t burn any bridges with the Cardinals. The Cardinals are smart and won’t overpay for anybody. MLB is taking a page out of the Cardinals notebook by not over paying for players not worth it. Everything that’s going on in baseball analytics and all started with the Cardinals. Now they’re trying to get ahead of the curve. They have always done it their way and will continue to do it the Cardinals Way!
where’s that way got you?
Well slide!! At the very least it has gotten us to where our backs aren’t against the wall in payroll like many other teams along with the fact that we don’t have a roster full of aging players that are killing us either!! Take your argument somewhere else!! Last I looked we were still in the playoff picture late in the season the last 2!
better rethink that overpay. fowler, leake, molina, allen craig
Molina is worth every penny they are paying him! Fowler healthy is a good contract
The other 2 were market value at the time.
I think the analytics all started with Oakland
and Moneyball. Bill James was way ahead of the curve a long time ago on this area.
Tom E. Snyder
Just because a lot of teams are “interested” in Lynn doesn’t mean he can get a significant contract. They may all be interested if they can get a low-ball deal.
If nobody wants him at 4/60 and a bunch of teams get in at 3/30, that could start a mini-bidding war that gets him to the 4/48 range, don’t you think?
Lynn is going to get more than 3/30. At minimum he’ll get the chatwood deal. 4/48 might be realistic but I don’t think the orioles will be the one doing that. Only way I see the orioles being an option for him is if he wants a 3 year deal with a one year opt out.
Well then the orioles won’t be in on him. Duquette has already said they won’t do player opt outs.
Duquette said that in 2016 and yet did a player opt out last year with Wellington Castillo.
Yeah Wellington Castillo just opted out. He’d do it for the right player on the right deal. Couldn’t see them commiting more than 3 years to Lynn and I can’t see that being advantageous to Lynn unless the opt out is available.
Camargo is not the answer at 3rd he is a super utility guy or if Dansby falls on his face than he could try SS. He doesn’t supply enough power for 3rd base.
I feel the Padres would eat some of Chase Headley’s contract & I think he is the perfect fit for 3rd.
Sign A veteran reliever to bring leadership to the bullpen. Maybe Moylan or Benoit somebody like that.
Next year’s shopping list will be an OF & C maybe a RP. They will have money for those needs next year.
Frazier signed for 9 million. The padres are without a doubt eating at least 6 million on Headley’s deal. Gotta think Bryan Mitchell wasn’t worth it. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong.
Headley would have had the highest OBP, AVE, and Hits on the team in 2017, He would have been third in RBI and 2 in BB. its not like the Padres have identified a better option at 3B going into spring training.
Taking a flyer on reclamation project like Mitchell while taking on Headley arguably makes their team better for 2018.
Agreed; Headley is better than people seem to give him credit for. I think the fact that he never touched that 31-homer season makes people think he’s a disappointment, but he is still a capable third baseman who provides slightly above-average offense. Yes, the cost of acquiring Mitchell – who the Padres really wanted – was taking on Headley’s money, but he’s worth what he’s being paid.
Headley is not worth 13 million a season. End of story. It’s a one year deal so it isn’t all bad but that’s the same AAV you’re giving cozart and 4 mil less than Frazier. Headley would’ve been looking at maybe 2/14 had he been a FA this year. His OPS+ was 100 last year and around 90 the previous two. Nobody is discrediting headley for not hitting 30 hrs, he’s just not that great of a hitter.
Does Headley maybe providing a few more homers make him more valuable? Im not sure u can say that. The team as a whole lacks power but it doesnt mean they should go out and make bad moves looking for it
Camargo isn’t the long term answer at 3rd , I agree. But I do think he needs to play and give him a chance.
If Swanson sucks again it will be so much easier to transition Camargo to SS if he has a year of experience playing everyday than if he is a super utility role.
There’s no point in signing someone for third this year. Use that opening to give Camargo a chance to stay fresh as an insurance policy if Swanson doesn’t improve.
Best case they both play well, Camargo gets pushed to super utility for 2019 when we sign a better option for third and actually need to talent there with a chance to do something in 2019
Worst case they both play terrible and Camargo gets replaced same as above
Middle case one plays well and the other doesn’t…. at least we have don’t have a SS problem heading in to 2019 if this happens because whoever performs should be there
Bite the bullet and move Swanson to 3B now!
I Have never seen so many people call a guy a bust because he had 1 bad year.
Y’all are forgetting Charlie Culbertson
Yankees just gave up a pitcher with upside to get rid of Headley. The Padres would have to attach a prospect to get rid of him too. He’s not going anywhere
Braves don’t have to take on a veteran to maybe push them to a wild card spot. Let’s see what happens next year, and then decide what free agents to target.
This is why I think the agents who are talking about collusion without actually using the word are being deceitful. Let’s say hypothetically that there are 6 teams willing to give Lynn a 3 yr, $42MM contract. His agent has convinced him that he should get 4 yrs and $68MM. No team is biting on that. Who is at fault? Are the teams colluding to bring the market down or is the agent at fault for being unrealistic about his client’s value?
Personally I’d be thrilled if the Orioles offered him 3/45, offered Dickey 1/8 with a player option for 2019, and Garcia 3/40. It’s not going to happen because I’m not their GM, but I can always hope.
If all the teams are sharing with the other teams what their offers are – which they are not allowed to do – then that’s collusion, yes. Only the commissioner’s office gets the contract offer figures, and they aren’t allowed to release that info.
Collusion is more than that though. I’m not a lawyer, but from my understanding collusion is the sharing of information, organizing, and AGREEING to a set of parameters to hold down/back the other side. It’s not only sharing information, it’s the coordinated effort of the other owners which would be the issue.
Garcia at 3/40 would kill me. I think he’d take 2/26 if it were on the table. Lance Lynn should fire his agent if he’s only worth about a mil and a half more a year at this point. But I do agree that both would be nice pickups.
Cardinals need another starter, I don’t care what they say. Stop being so damn cheap and make real improvements. Only player in Ozuna is what they havr done and compared who left. This team overall is not going to be much better that last year. Ozuna is good nut he can’t fix everything.
They should’ve signed Addison Reed.
They need somebody else in the starter-inning mix. Sign Dickey and bring Jamie back. I still think Waino ends up in the pen before season’s end.
Why would Cards want Jamie back??? take Lynn over him any day, total head case
Would Cards trade Carson Kelly and Jed Gerkyo for Julio Teheran or Brandon McCarthy and Lucas Sims?
No. Teheran isn’t any better than the prospects we have that are ready to step in and ur asking for our starting 3B on a team friendly deal and a top 50 prospect.
Julio, Vizzy & Camargo would get Gyrko, Kelly & O’Neil ???
White Sox should sign Dickey. He’d be a solid innings
eater, and a really good veteran for their young guys to look up to.
If the mets could get Lynn on a reasonably team friendly deal it might be the first time in franchise history the mets (specifically the wilpons) were successful in the off-season with their cheapskate tactics.
I would hate to reinforce bad behavior…but to be honest, if they grabbed Lynn, then I’d consider this a successful off-season for them. That Ramos contract is by far the worst (recent) deal, while Bruce and Frazier should at least earn their contracts and possibly have quite a bit of value on top of their contracts.
Ramos? A.J. Ramos?
In fairness, Pre-Madoff the Wilpons threw monster contract after monster contract out there. It’s only the past 8-9 years they went the mid-market route.
Dickey 1 @$4m + some incentives should work for a number of teams. Dickey has always marched to his own drum, so who knows if that would be sufficient. Maybe he’d take any MLB deal if he can play with his preferred team.
The cards should sign Lynn!!! They need him
Baseball is experiencing a long overdue shift in how it values veteran players. There are tons of examples of older players with big, lengthy contracts that were based on past performance that resulted in big fails. Big, lengthy successful contracts are the exception and should be reserved for Hall of Fame type players. This being said, if clubs are not going to reward a player for past performance when he was underpaid then a new approach to paying younger players better than arbitration pricing should be implemented. Perhaps $1 million minimum would be a reasonable start. If sabremetrics are curtailing players making big money on the back end then a fairer method of pay when they are under team control should be explored.
Completely agree on paying the younger players more but still have to earn the big contract. In 2002 players received 56% of the revenue and now it’s down to 40%.
Lynn would definitely be an upgrade over Miley and Ubaldo the only problem is Angelos doesn’t want to spend the money.