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Lance Lynn

Details On Lance Lynn/David Robertson Offseason Asking Prices

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David Robertson was the 47th-ranked player on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, yet the veteran reliever is still looking for a contract as the calendar approaches mid-April.  Veteran starter Lance Lynn was an honorable mention on our list, and while there wasn’t any indication that Lynn was considering hanging up the cleats after 13 big league seasons, Lynn rather surprisingly announced his retirement two weeks ago.

On paper, both pitchers seemed like sure bets to land respectable contracts this winter, but what happened?  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale explored the subject as part of a larger piece about the somewhat still market that several free agents (including even top names like Corbin Burnes) faced this offseason, or in past offseasons.  As Lynn put it, “you know what you think you’re worth, you know where you want to be, but teams look to try to get a guy as cheap as possible…..I was in a weird market where every team could afford me, but 20 to 25 teams are not looking to compete.  Every team has the same playbook.”

The Cardinals didn’t exercise their $12MM club option on Lynn for the 2025 season, instead buying him out for $1MM and sending the veteran back onto the open market.  Robertson was also technically tied to a $7MM mutual option with the Rangers for 2025, but since mutual options are almost always declined by one or both sides, it was no surprise that Robertson passed on his side of the option and instead took a $1.5MM buyout.

Lynn had a 3.84 ERA over 117 1/3 innings with St. Louis last year, with a slate of below-average Statcast metrics and two IL stints due to knee inflammation.  His SIERA was 4.40, though overall, Lynn’s secondary numbers were more or less the same as they were in 2023, when Lynn was perhaps unlucky to post a 5.73 ERA over 183 2/3 combined innings with the White Sox and Dodgers.

Acknowledging his age (37), injury history, and modest production, Lynn went into the offseason with an $8MM asking price, a significant decrease from both his Cards club option and from the eight-figure average annual values that he has earned over the better part of the last decade.  Lynn was also open to the idea of moving to the bullpen and possibly a high-leverage role, and some teams expressed interest about this possibility.  Still, the Cubs were the only team publicly linked to Lynn’s market, and Lynn heard from other teams that they were only willing to sign him for $4MM if he waited until around June.

“I didn’t hear anything for so long, then everyone started offering basically the same thing,” Lynn said.  “Every team seemed to say, ’This is the best deal you’re going to get.’  When I kept saying, ’No, you’re only paying me half of what I’m worth,’ they said, ’What are you going to do, just not play?’  Well, my answer is yes.”

Obviously the concept of what a particular player is “worth” is subjective, and it seems like no team shared Lynn’s opinion that he would produce $8MM or more of value in 2025.  Lynn’s stance doesn’t seem unreasonable, given his long track record in the majors and the simple fact that every team is always in need of pitching.  Increasingly, however, teams have been less willing to pay past market-established prices for a veteran innings-eater type, as clubs prefer to cover those innings at the back of a rotation with multiple younger pitchers, relievers, or an even lower-cost veteran on a non-guaranteed contract.

Robertson’s situation is perhaps even harder to figure.  Nightengale writes that the reliever was looking for a $10MM salary in his next contract, after earning $10MM in a one-year deal with the Mets in 2023 and then last winter’s $11.5MM guarantee from the Rangers.  Ten different relievers (not counting Clay Holmes, who signed with the Mets a starter) inked deals with at least a $10MM average annual value this past offseason, so Robertson’s ask wasn’t out of line with the rest of the market.

Though Robertson just celebrated his 40th birthday earlier this week, he wasn’t showing much sign of slowing down while posting a 3.00 ERA over 72 innings with Texas last season.  His 33.4% strikeout rate was one of the best of his career and one of the best of any hurler in baseball in 2024, and his cutter remained one of the game’s more devastating pitches.  Robertson’s walk rate was below average and his hard-contact numbers were only okay, though he limited the hardest contact in the form of very strong barrel numbers.

Robertson’s impressive season came on the heels of two other quality years in 2022-23, so it wasn’t like he was having a sudden late-career revival.  The Cubs (again) and Tigers both reportedly had interest in Robertson this winter, but no deals emerged anywhere, despite the long list of teams who were openly looking for high-leverage bullpen help.  Looking at that list of other relievers who landed a $10MM AAV, there are several names on that list coming off less-productive and more injury-plagued seasons than Robertson, or who lack even his three-year track record of success (to say nothing of Robertson’s overall success across 16 seasons in the Show).

It could be that teams simply couldn’t look past Robertson’s looming 40th birthday, and the added risk associated with committing substantial money to any player of an advancing age.  That said, the exact same logic applied to Robertson heading into age-39 season, and that didn’t prevent him from landing a solid payday from the Rangers.  It seems logical that Robertson would be seeking out a comparable salary coming off an even better season than he delivered in 2023, yet he remains unsigned.  There hasn’t been much word on what Robertson’s next step might be, in regards to whether he is now looking at being an in-season signing, or if he might be weighing a year off or even retirement.

Lance Lynn To Retire

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Veteran starting pitcher Lance Lynn announced his retirement today on his and his wife’s podcast, Dymin in the Rough. In his own words, “I am officially retiring from baseball right here, right now… from Major League Baseball, I am done pitching.”

Lynn spent his final season with the Cardinals, pitching to a 3.84 ERA and 4.40 SIERA over 117 1/3 innings. The team went 15-8 in his starts. It was a fitting way to go out, pitching for the same team with whom he spent the first decade of his professional career. The Cardinals selected Lynn in the first round of the 2008 draft, and he made his big league debut just under three years later. He would quickly become a key contributor in the Cardinals’ bullpen, helping the team to a World Series championship in the fall.

Taking on a full-time starting job for the first time, Lynn was an All-Star in 2012. Overall, across six seasons in St. Louis from 2011-17, the right-hander threw close to 1,000 innings. He went 72-47 with a 3.38 ERA and 3.94 SIERA. He then spent most of his thirties bouncing between organizations, pitching for the Twins, Yankees, Rangers, White Sox, and Dodgers before returning to the Cardinals. Although Lynn had a couple of rough seasons in that time, he also had a few of his best. He earned Cy Young votes each year from 2019-21, finishing fifth, sixth, and third, respectively. He was also an All-Star in 2021, when he pitched to a career-best 2.69 ERA. All told, Lynn threw just over 2,000 MLB innings and collected just over 2,000 strikeouts. He pitched to a 3.74 ERA and won 143 games.

Some might have worried that Lynn was nearing the end in 2023, when he pitched to a bloated 5.73 ERA between the White Sox and Dodgers. It was only the second time in his career that he posted an ERA above 4.00. That being said, he still made 32 starts that year, and his respectable 4.33 SIERA was an encouraging sign. The Cardinals clearly had faith in Lynn, signing him to a one-year, $11MM guarantee with a club option for 2025, and he proved them right. While right knee inflammation limited him to 23 starts, he looked like a perfectly solid back-end starter in those games. Aside from one blowup outing in July (2 2/3 IP, 11 R), he gave St. Louis a chance to win each time he took the mound. However, the Cardinals declined his $12MM team option for 2025.

While Lynn did have some suitors over the winter, the Cubs were one team known to have interest, he says, “The money didn’t work out.” He adds that he wasn’t particularly interested in the possibility of signing with a team mid-season. In other words, prolonging his career was not his top priority. To that point, he might have also had a chance to prolong his career by transitioning into a reliever – an option he seemed at least somewhat interested in when he discussed the topic with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic in January. Yet, his comments suggest he is quite happy with the way he ultimately went out.

Cubs Have Reportedly Had Talks With Lance Lynn

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The Cubs and veteran righty Lance Lynn are in talks on a potential one-year deal, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who adds that the Cubs are eyeing some further rotation depth. That said, Lynn could potentially emerge as a bullpen piece. The right-hander told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal earlier in the offseason that his agent had gotten calls from teams curious about using Lynn out of the bullpen, and he sounded open to the idea at the time.

Lynn, 37, spent the 2024 season with his original club, the division-rival Cardinals. He made 23 mostly solid starts, logging a 3.84 ERA with a 21.3% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate in 117 1/3  innings. The righty averaged only five innings per appearance and had a pair of 15-day IL stints due to discomfort and inflammation in his right knee.

Even with the limited workload, it was a bounceback effort for the 13-year veteran, who’d been torched for a 5.73 earned run average in 183 innings between the White Sox and Dodgers the year prior. Lynn was baseball’s most homer-prone starter that year, serving up an average of 2.16 long balls per nine frames. He trimmed that to a far more manageable 1.23 in his return effort with the Cardinals.

If the two parties to come to terms, Lynn would be a fairly surprising addition. Chicago already has Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd locked into rotation spots. Presumptive fifth starter Javier Assad will open on the injured list due to an oblique strain but isn’t expected to be sidelined long-term. In the meantime, swingman Colin Rea could step into the rotation after signing a one-year, $5MM contract earlier in the winter.

The Cubs also have several young arms who are on the cusp of MLB readiness. Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks and Caleb Kilian are all already on the 40-man roster, as is journeyman Cody Poteet. Prospects Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell aren’t yet on the 40-man but have both reached Triple-A. Horton, in particular, is generally ranked among the sport’s top 100 prospects.

Any of those arms might need to be relied upon in the early stages of the season anyhow, as at this point it’s hard to imagine Lynn would be ready to jump into a big league rotation or bullpen with domestic Opening Day just two weeks out. The Cubs’ season, of course, starts next week during their Tokyo Series showdown against the Dodgers.

Chicago’s payroll currently sits at an estimated $194.6MM, per RosterResource, while their estimated CBT number checks in at $214.5MM. That places them $26.5MM away from the luxury tax threshold. Signing Lynn on what would surely be an affordable one-year deal would still leave the Cubs with more than $20MM in space between their current levels and that CBT barrier, providing ample room for in-season dealings as the front office sees fit.

Cubs, Orioles Exploring Rotation Additions

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There are still several starting pitchers available in free agency and it’s possible that mounting injuries could help create new opportunities for them. Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic report that the Cubs and Orioles are two clubs exploring rotation additions. The Cubs reportedly had some talks with Andrew Heaney before he signed with the Pirates and are currently keeping tabs on Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.

The Cubs don’t have a major health concern in their rotation at the moment. Javier Assad has been slowed by some oblique soreness and is trending towards starting the season on the injured list, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll be out for an especially long time. The club’s projected top four of Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon are healthy. With Assad out, Colin Rea could perhaps take the fifth spot for a while. Or if he’s in a long relief role, guys like Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Caleb Kilian or Cody Poteet could step up, though all the guys in that group have options and could also be in the Triple-A rotation.

However, Rosenthal notes that the Cubs are facing an unusual spring. They have been ramping up a bit earlier than usual in anticipation of going to Japan soon. As part of the Tokyo Series, they will play a couple of exhibition games against Japanese clubs on March 15th and 16th, before playing regular season games against the Dodgers on March 18th and 19th. The Cubs are seemingly aware that some hiccups could arise with the unique schedule and are keeping the phone lines open.

At this part of the calendar, the market isn’t especially kind to players. The aforementioned Heaney signed with the Pirates a few weeks ago, a one-year deal with a guarantee of just $5.25MM. About a week ago, Jose Quintana signed with the Brewers for a $4.25MM guarantee. Coming into the winter, MLBTR predicted Heaney and Quintana to get two-year deals worth $24MM and $20MM respectively. Many pitchers outearned expectations earlier in the offseason but the market has clearly fallen off more recently.

A few months ago, Gibson and Lynn seemed like possibilities for eight-figure guarantees on one-year deals. But the fact that they have lingered unsigned while the market has softened means they are likely going to have to adjust their expectations if they want to sign. Rosenthal reports that unsigned pitchers are being asked to sign advanced consent forms, which allow clubs to terminate a contract within 45 days for any reason except injury and only have to pay the player for the time he spent on the roster. That’s obviously not ideal from a player’s perspective and it would only be signed if such a player had very little leverage.

Lynn, 38 in May, has a lengthy track record but isn’t riding a high tide of momentum at the moment. He posted a 5.73 earned run average in 2023, the worst of his career. He still was able to a secure a one-year, $11MM deal from the Cardinals and bounced back somewhat with a 3.84 ERA in 2024, but there were also some flags. He twice went on the injured list due to inflammation in his right knee, the same knee that had required surgical repair in 2022. Those IL stints limited him to 117 1/3 innings last year. While the ERA bounced back, his strikeout rate and velocity dropped.

Gibson, 37, is one of the steadiest pitchers in the league but lacks upside. He has logged at least 147 1/3 innings in each of the past ten major league seasons. However, he only posted an ERA below 4.20 in three of those. His 4.24 ERA last year was his best of the past three seasons.

Perhaps neither are as exciting as the aforementioned optionable pitchers that the Cubs have on hand, but they certainly have more experience. Between Brown, Wicks, Kilian and Poteet, there’s no one with even 85 big league innings.

For the Orioles, Rosenthal doesn’t specifically connect them to Gibson or Lynn, but it’s understandable that they would be keeping tabs on the market generally. Grayson Rodriguez has some elbow inflammation and is still getting some testing done but will start the season on the IL regardless. That leaves the O’s with a projected rotation of Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Dean Kremer. Manager Brandon Hyde has suggested the final spot is likely down to Albert Suárez or Cade Povich.

Suárez is a journeyman who spent many years in Asia before returning to North American ball last year. He pitched in a swing role for the O’s in 2024 and logged a 3.70 ERA. Povich went into 2024 as a notable prospect but had a 5.20 ERA in his first 16 big league starts. Adding a veteran starter could allow the club to keep Suárez in a long relief role and bump Povich to the Triple-A rotation, while also adding depth to hedge against future injuries.

Signing at this part of the season does come with some perceived risk, however. As noted by Rosenthal, both Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery signed late last winter and the initial results were poor with both. Snell signed with the Giants in mid-March, then had a couple of IL stints in the first half. He eventually finished strong but was sitting on a 9.51 ERA when he returned from his second IL stint in July. Montgomery didn’t officially sign with the Diamondback until late March and never got on track, finishing the year with a 6.23 ERA over 117 innings.

The Cubs and Orioles are surely not the only clubs sniffing around the available starting pitchers. The Yankees will be without Luis Gil for months due to a lat strain and are facing the possibility of Gerrit Cole requiring Tommy John surgery. The Mariners are going to put George Kirby on the IL to start the year due to some shoulder inflammation. Other injuries will inevitably arise and lengthen that list.

For clubs looking to free agency, they will have to consider whether its worth the money to sign one of these vets and quickly ramp them up, as opposed to going with in-house options. Rosenthal notes that both Gibson and Lynn have been throwing in an attempt to be somewhat ready, though they would surely still need some game action somewhere to truly get in form. Other free agents of note include Patrick Corbin and Spencer Turnbull. Guys like Jordan Montgomery or Taijuan Walker may be available on the trade market.

Lance Lynn Has Drawn Interest As Reliever

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Veteran right-hander Lance Lynn has pitched in 364 big league games — 340 of them starts. He hasn’t come out of the bullpen since the 2018 season, when he made all of four relief outings. Since 2019, he ranks 15th among all big league pitchers in games started. Be that as it may, Lynn himself tells Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that multiple teams have reached out to his representatives at Headline Sports to inquire about his willingness to pitch in relief — possibly as a closer.

For much of his career, Lynn was as bankable a source of 30-plus starts as the game had to offer. He did miss the 2016 season due to Tommy John surgery, but in every other 162-game season from 2012-21, he averaged 31 starts. His 13 starts in the shortened 2020 season led Major League Baseball. Outside of that one major arm injury, Lynn was the consummate workhorse.

Knee injuries began to dog the right-hander in 2021, however. He hit the injured list at the end of August that year and wound up making “only” 28 starts with 157 innings pitched as a result. The following April, he underwent surgery to repair a torn tendon in his knee. He was limited to 21 starts in 2022 but still notched a solid 3.99 ERA in 121 2/3 frames after returning in mid-June. Lynn again made 32 starts and topped 180 innings in 2023 — albeit with poor results (5.73 ERA). His 2024 campaign, however, saw him hit the injured list on two different occasions owing to inflammation in that surgically repaired right knee.

Over the past three seasons, Lynn has pitched 422 1/3 innings. He’s averaged 25.333 starts per season. Lynn posted sub-4.00 ERAs in 2022 and 2024, but his rocky 2023 campaign balloons his earned run average in that three-year span to a much rougher 4.71. His strikeout rate and velocity have declined incrementally in that three-year period, although even his 2024 levels (21.3 K%, 92.3 mph average four-seamer) are still passable.

A move to the bullpen for Lynn could be intriguing for a number of reasons. He’s long been an extreme fastball pitcher — the rare arm who can succeed with minimal secondary offerings. Since 2017, Lynn has thrown a curveball for 7% of his offerings and his changeup at a 4.3% clip with an even less-used slider (1.4%). The rest of his pitches have been four-seamers (45.3%), sinkers (22.5%) and cutters (19.5%) — all ranging from 88.5 mph (cutter) to 93.4 mph (four-seamer).

A move to the ’pen would presumably bump Lynn’s heater back upward. He’s never been a true flamethrower but did average a career-high 94.6 mph on his four-seamer back in 2019. Relievers generally have an easier time getting by with a two-pitch arsenal; Lynn could feasibly rely on a four-seamer/cutter combo working out of the bullpen. They’ve been his two most effective pitches, on a rate basis, throughout his career.

There’s no guarantee Lynn signs as a pure reliever, of course. His 2024 season yielded solid results even when pitching as a starter. The volume wasn’t there, but he logged a 3.84 ERA in his 23 starts. The Cardinals generally limited him to five frames per outing, though; he only recorded an out in the sixth inning or later in seven of his 23 trips to the mound. A team looking for an effective five-and-dive starter at the back of the rotation could still bring Lynn into the fold, but at a time when reliever-to-starter conversions are en vogue, he’s an interesting candidate to try the opposite approach.

It’s not known which clubs have looked into Lynn as a possible closer, though speculatively speaking, a budget-crunched club like the Rangers — who already know Lynn well — would be an intriguing fit. The D-backs are still seeking a closer but are already running a club-record payroll after their shock signing of Corbin Burnes.

Rosenthal adds that there are clubs interested in Lynn in his more traditional rotation role. He’d be a relatively low-cost option for teams hoping to pile up some affordable innings. The Padres, Brewers and A’s all speculatively fit that billing. But at the very least, Lynn sounds open to the idea of pitching in a late-game role. He described his reaction to his agent’s initial presentation of the concept: “I went, ‘Oooooh. Is the second act, the final act of my career, closing games?’ It sounds fun.”

Athletics Risk MLBPA Grievance Without Further Payroll Increases

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As they look to ramp up payroll ahead of their impending move to Las Vegas, the Athletics inked right-hander Luis Severino to the largest deal in franchise history last week as they look to capture the attention of a new city during their temporary move to West Sacramento. With that being said, a report from Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic on Monday emphasized that getting fans into seats in 2025 isn’t the only motivation behind the club’s decision to increase spending. The duo reports that without a substantial increase to the club’s payroll this winter, the A’s run the risk of inviting a grievance from the MLB Players Association.

That risk of a grievance is due to the fact that A’s will collect 100% of their revenue-sharing dollars in 2025 for the first time under the current collective bargaining agreement. While the team received just 25% of their allotment in 2022, that figured increased to 50% in 2023 and 75% in 2024 before finally reaching 100% in 2025. The issue for the A’s stems from the fact that the CBA requires revenue sharing recipients to spend more than 150% of their revenue sharing money on MLB payroll.

Drellich and Rosenthal go on to report that A’s could receive $70MM or more in revenue sharing after drawing the worst attendance figures in baseball last year, which would mean the club needs to reach a player payroll of $105MM or more for luxury tax purposes in 2025 in order to avoid risking a grievance. RosterResource currently projects the club for a luxury tax payroll of just under $78.5MM for 2025, meaning they would need to add roughly $26.5MM in player payroll to avoid falling below that 150% figure. It’s worth noting that these numbers are inexact, as well, and if the A’s receive a larger revenue sharing check than currently expected they may wind up needing to float a luxury tax payroll of more than $105MM in order to avoid a grievance.

For a club that has struggled to lure in free agents this winter due to the fact that they’ll spend the next three seasons using a Triple-A stadium as their home ballpark, reaching that level of spending could be complicated. A separate report from Rosenthal suggests that the A’s have interest in adding another free agent starting pitcher alongside Severino, though he adds that such a signing would likely be a veteran pitcher from a lower tier of free agency. Rosenthal specifically name-checks Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Andrew Heaney as potential options the A’s could consider if any of them were willing to pitch in West Sacramento next season.

Of the three, Heaney was predicted to land the largest contract on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list with a two-year, $24MM pact. That $12MM AAV would bump the club’s luxury tax payroll up to $90.5MM, putting them just $15MM away from reaching their estimated $105MM target. The tough sell of pitching in West Sacramento and the projection-beating deals signed by other pitchers this winter could leave the A’s in a position where they’d need to offer more than that $12MM annual figure in order to land a veteran hurler, but they’d surely still need to find other ways to add salary in order to reach $105MM even if they signed a veteran starter to a deal that significantly outpaced projections.

Free agency isn’t the only avenue for adding talent (and payroll), of course. The trade market is one avenue for adding MLB talent that the club has been candid about exploring this winter. Cubs outfielder Cody Bellinger and Diamondbacks southpaw Jordan Montgomery are two high-priced players known to be available in the rumor mill who the club could swing deals for if they want to immediately put themselves in position to avoid a grievance in one fell swoop, but there’s a large swath of other players expected to be available this winter who could add to the club’s payroll in a less drastic fashion. Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz, Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, and Cardinals southpaw Steven Matz are among a handful of possible trade candidates who will make $10MM or more in 2025.

Another route the A’s could take to raise the luxury tax payroll that wouldn’t require convincing a free agent to sign or swinging a trade with another club would be signing a player already in the organization to an extension. Reporting over the weekend indicated that the Athletics have interest in negotiating an extension with breakout slugger Brent Rooker. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Rooker to earn $5.1MM in his first trip through arbitration this winter, and any extension that would guarantee Rooker an AAV higher than that $5.1MM figure would increase the club’s luxury tax payroll. As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted over the weekend, it’s possible that even if the A’s and Rooker aren’t interested in agreeing on a long-term deal that buys out some of Rooker’s free agent years, an extension that covers his arbitration years could offer certainty to both sides. Such an extension would come with an additional boon for the A’s in light of their current predicament by surely raising the AAV on Rooker’s 2025 contract, though no realistic extension could be expected to raise the club’s tax payroll by the $26.5MM needed to avoid risking a grievance by itself.

Cardinals Decline Team Options For Gibson, Lynn, Middleton

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12:45 pm: The Cardinals have formally announced their decision to decline all three club options.

12:22 pm: The Cardinals will not pick up their 2025 team options for right-handed pitchers Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, or Keynan Middleton, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The club could have retained Gibson and Lynn for $12MM each, while Middleton’s option was valued at $6MM. Instead, the Cardinals will pay all three pitchers a $1MM buyout and send them back onto the free agent market. They will be eligible to sign with any of the other 29 teams as of Monday.

Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Katie Woo wrote that the team was “not expected” to keep Lynn or Middleton, but the news about Gibson comes as a bit more of a surprise. The durable veteran came exactly as advertised in 2024, giving the Cardinals 30 starts and 169 2/3 innings with a 4.24 ERA and 4.44 SIERA. However, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Goold that he is prioritizing “maximum flexibility” this offseason, hence his decision to clear as much money from the books as possible.

Gibson has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the game throughout his career. Dating back to his first full season in 2014, he has made 314 starts. No other pitcher has made as many 300 starts in that time. He has never pitched like an ace, but there is good value in a starter who can consistently pitch a full season’s worth of innings with an ERA close to league average. That’s why Gibson earned a $10MM deal from the Orioles two offseasons ago and a $13MM guarantee from the Cardinals last winter. That’s also why he would have been well worth a net value of $11MM in 2025. It seems as if the Cardinals understand as much but simply prefer to use that money elsewhere. Woo noted they might have picked up Gibson’s option if they felt confident they could offload Miles Mikolas or Steven Matz in a trade. Her report suggests the front office liked Gibson at that $11MM value but ultimately decided they had too much money tied up in other veteran starting pitchers.

Goold mentions that Gibson has “expressed an interest” in returning to St. Louis next season, and for what it’s worth, Mozeliak suggested the team could still consider reunions with all three pitchers. Presumably, however, the Cardinals will wait and see if they can trade any of their other veteran starters before possibly picking up negotiations with Gibson.

Lynn pitched well over the first four months of the 2024 season, bouncing back from a difficult 2023 campaign to produce a respectable 4.06 ERA and 4.47 SIERA across his first 21 starts. Unfortunately, right knee inflammation limited him to just two starts over the final two months of the year. They were both good outings, lowering his full-season ERA to 3.84, but considering Lynn’s age (he’ll turn 38 next year) and his recent history of right knee problems (he missed more than two months after knee surgery in 2022), it’s not hard to see why the Cardinals were wary of bringing him back on an eight-figure salary in 2025.

The 2024 season was a lost year for Middleton, who could not return to the mound after suffering a forearm strain in spring training. He ultimately underwent flexor tendon surgery in June, formally ending his season. With that in mind, the Cardinals’ decision not to pick up his option is the least surprising of the three. It’s possible he’ll be back to full health by next spring, but his value is certainly lower than it was at this time last year. Wherever he signs this offseason, it’s likely to be for significantly less than $6MM.

In addition to Gibson, Lynn, and Middleton, three more Cardinals veterans will be free agents this winter: Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, and Andrew Kittredge. Even with a handful of players eligible to earn raises in arbitration and Sonny Gray’s forthcoming $15MM salary bump (the deal he signed last winter was heavily backloaded), RosterResource estimates the Cardinals 2025 payroll to be $147MM, well below their estimated $183MM payroll this past season. If they had chosen to pick up the options on Gibson, Lynn, and Middleton, that would have increased next year’s payroll projection to $174MM.

Latest On The Cardinals’ Offseason Plans

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As the postseason nears its conclusion, we’re rapidly nearing the proper start of the offseason for all thirty clubs. Among the first decisions to be made for any club during the offseason is whether or not they’ll exercise club options for the following season. Those decisions are due five days after the end of the World Series, but clubs generally have an idea of where they stand before then. The Athletic’s Katie Woo discussed the Cardinals’ plans for the three club options they hold for 2025 this morning, and noted that the club is “not expected” to exercise its $12MM option ($1MM buyout) on veteran righty Lance Lynn or its $6MM option ($1MM buyout) on reliever Keynan Middleton.

Neither of those decisions are necessarily a surprise. Previous reporting indicated that Middleton was expected to land elsewhere this winter, and while Lynn’s status was more up in the air it’s long appeared that the club may prefer to retain right-hander Kyle Gibson on his team option, which comes with identical terms to Lynn’s, in 2025. That said, Woo makes clear that even Gibson’s option being picked up isn’t a guarantee. Instead, Woo suggests that the club would be “almost guaranteed” to trade either right-hander Miles Mikolas or southpaw Steven Matz this winter if Gibson’s option does end up getting picked up. Woo notes that the odds of Gibson’s option being picked up will “increase” if the Cardinals feel confident they’ll be able to move one of the two this winter, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Matz is surely the more tradable of the duo, even as he’s coming off a largely lost season on the mound that saw him pitch to a lackluster 5.08 ERA amid injuries that limited him to just 44 1/3 innings of work on the mound. While that production is unlikely to entice much in return on the trade market, the increasing price of starting pitching in recent years makes the remaining one year and $12.5MM on Matz’s contract a bit more palatable than it otherwise would be. Overall, the southpaw has been roughly league average (95 ERA+) while swinging between the bullpen and rotation for the Cardinals and figures to be a generally solid serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter in 2025. It’s also possible a club could look to convert him to full-time relief work after the lefty posted sub-3.00 ERAs out of the bullpen in each of his last three seasons, albeit in small sample sizes that total just 33 1/3 innings of 2.43 ERA ball.

Mikolas, however, figures to be quite difficult for the club to move. Woo notes that the 36-year-old is among the club’s many veterans (including Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado) who holds a no-trade clause that will restrict their availability to be dealt this winter. The Cardinals will need to have conversations with all of those players about their futures, but even if Mikolas agrees to waive his no-trade rights to play elsewhere its unclear how interested rival clubs would be in his services. Mikolas just endured the worst season of his Cardinals career in 2024 as he pitched to a subpar 5.35 ERA in 171 2/3 innings of work.

A hurler who will turn 37 in August with three below average seasons by ERA+ over the last four years and a $17.67MM salary for 2025 seems unlikely to garner much interest on the trade market unless St. Louis is willing to pay down a significant portion of his salary. That being said, there are some silver linings in Mikolas’s profile. The veteran’s 4.24 FIP and 4.28 SIERA in 2024 were far better than his actual on-field results, and he remains one of the most durable starters in the game today. Over the past three seasons, Mikolas has made 100 appearances (99 starts) and thrown 575 1/3 innings. That’s good for the sixth-most innings in baseball over that time, behind only Logan Webb, Aaron Nola, Corbin Burnes, Logan Gilbert, and Framber Valdez. If the Cardinals were willing to pay down a portion of Mikolas’s salary, it’s at least feasible that a team in need of innings could take a flier on the veteran in hopes of a bounce-back.

Central Notes: Ecker, White Sox, Lynn, Cardinals, Pirates

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Reports surfaced last week that the Rangers had given permission for Donnie Ecker to interview with the White Sox about their managerial opening, but Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (X link) wrote that Ecker is no longer under consideration for the job.  Ecker will instead return for what will presumably be his fourth season as the Rangers’ bench coach and offensive coordinator.

Ecker’s departure from the search could simply be due to a personal preference to remain in Texas, rather than necessarily a sign that the White Sox are getting any closer to hiring their new skipper.  SoxMachine’s James Fegan described the managerial search last week as still being short of any official list of finalists, even though the team had already eliminated some candidates while still aiming to speak to some other names working for teams still alive in the playoffs.  Dodgers coaches Clayton McCullough and Danny Lehmann are two names linked to the Sox that might fit this description, though a wide range of names are rumored to be on Chicago’s list.  Most of the rumored candidates (like Ecker) would be first-time managers at the big league level, though Skip Schumaker and Phil Nevin both have past experience running MLB clubs.

More from both the AL and NL Central…

  • A pair of IL stints due to right knee inflammation limited to Lance Lynn to just two starts over the last two months of the season, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that Lynn is feeling better “and expects to have a normal offseason of preparation.”  This is good news for Lynn as he heads into his 14th Major League season, and despite the knee issues, Lynn still had a solid 3.84 ERA over 117 1/3 innings for the Cardinals.  Since the Cards are planning to cut payroll in a rebuild year, it isn’t a guarantee that Lynn’s $12MM club option ($1MM buyout) will be exercised, though St. Louis is probably more likely to pick up the option and then shop Lynn on the trade market this winter.
  • In other Cardinals news, Goold reports that longtime front office staffer Matt Slater is leaving the organization.  Slater has been with the team since 2007 working as a scout, director of player personnel, and (for the last seven seasons) as a special assistant to the GM in a player procurement capacity.  These roles meant that Slater was directly involved in the acquisition of several notable Cards players, and Goold notes that Slater was particularly influential in the team’s international scouting practices.  This resume drew Slater some attention from the Tigers and Phillies in past GM searches, and he probably shouldn’t have much trouble landing a new gig with another team.
  • The Pirates have hired Kevin Tenenbaum to lead their analytics department as the club’s new VP of research and development, according to reporter John Dreker (X link).  The 32-year-old Tenenbaum has spent the last seven seasons in Cleveland’s R&D department, working as the director in 2022 and then VP of the Guardians’ analytics team this past season.  This experience with another lower-spending team is surely of interest to the Pirates, especially given the Guards have been a lot more consistently competitive than the Bucs have in recent years despite working with generally comparative payroll.

How Will The Cardinals Handle Their Rotation Options?

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The coming offseason figures to be a tumultuous one for the Cardinals. Coming off a second consecutive season where the club missed the playoffs, St. Louis brass have already announced that significant changes are coming, headlined by Chaim Bloom stepping in to take over baseball operations following the 2025 season (with a larger role in the meantime) and the club planning to slash payroll as they figure to bring back few if any of their departing veteran players.

While Paul Goldschmidt headlines the list of players who appear likely to don another uniform in 2025, what’s not yet clear is what the club intends to do about its starting rotation. Rumors have swirled that the club could shop staff ace Sonny Gray this winter as they look to trim payroll and focus on developing young players, and if Gray were to be moved that would leave only struggling veteran Miles Mikolas, oft-injured swingman Steven Matz, breakout youngster Andre Pallante, and deadline acquisition Erick Fedde as rotation options on guaranteed contracts for 2025. With some interesting young arms such as Michael McGreevey, Sem Robberse, and Adam Kloffenstein in the wings as potential contributors next year, it’s not hard to imagine St. Louis getting solid enough production from its internal options.

With that being said, however, their current rotation picture offers very little certainty, especially should Gray wind up pitching elsewhere next year. After all, even Pallante and Fedde lack track records of success in a big league rotation that go beyond the current season. Fortunately, the Cards have not one but two options available to them that could help raise the floor on their 2025 rotation at a relatively cheap price: Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. The veteran hurlers will play at ages 37 and 38 respectively next year, but both posted solid results as back-end rotation options for the club this year and come with identical $12MM club options (with $1MM buyouts) for 2025. Given the club’s focus on the future and desire to trim payroll, it would be something of a surprise if both options were exercised. Given the many similarities between the two veteran Midwest natives, it’s fair to wonder which of the two hurlers would be a better choice for the Cardinals to retain next year, and which one they should send into free agency.

Of the two, retaining Lynn would surely offer a higher ceiling. The veteran hurler pitched the first six seasons of his career in St. Louis as a perfectly capable mid-rotation arm, but had a late-career breakout with the Rangers and White Sox that saw him pitch like a true top-of-the-rotation ace: from 2019 to 2021, Lynn posted a strong 3.26 ERA that was 46% better than league average with a 3.39 FIP and a 27.5% strikeout rate. He also enjoyed slightly better results than Gibson did this year, with advantages in ERA (3.84 vs 4.24), FIP (4.31 vs 4.42), and strikeout rate (21.3% vs 20.9%). For a club that’s likely to rely primarily on internal improvements in order to maintain hopes of contending for a playoff spot in 2025, there’s an argument to be made that Lynn’s ceiling and stronger results this season make him the smarter choice to retain going forward.

That’s not to say there isn’t a case to be made for Gibson, however. While the 12-year MLB veteran has never flashed the ceiling Lynn did during his peak, Gibson is more dependable in some ways. The groundballer rarely misses time due to injury, having made at least 29 starts in nine of his ten full seasons in the majors. By contrast, Lynn was limited to just 21 starts in 2022 and 23 starts this year by knee issues. What’s more, even as Lynn posted stronger overall numbers with the Cardinals this year, certain underlying metrics actually painted a much less clear picture: Gibson’s 4.44 SIERA is nearly identical to Lynn’s 4.40 figure, while Gibson actually wins on both xERA (4.90 vs 4.93) and xFIP (4.19 vs 4.39) thanks in part to a much stronger grounder rate (44.8% vs 36.3%).

While Gibson’s ceiling may not be as high as Lynn’s his reliability could be particularly valuable for a club that figures to rely heavily on young arms who may not yet be ready for a full season’s workload next year, and his comparable expected metrics call into question just how much of an advantage Lynn really has in terms of run prevention. Of course, it’s also worth noting that the club could choose a third option and decline both club options in hopes of finding similar production at a lower cost in free agency. It would be a risky choice to make given the rising costs of pitching in recent years, but a back-end arm like Martin Perez, Jose Urena, or Michael Lorenzen could theoretically be had at a lower price than either veteran’s club option depending on how this winter’s market shakes out. Of course, any player available at that price point would surely have flaws of their own.

How should the Cardinals handle their upcoming club options in the rotation? Have your say in the poll below:

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