The market has just not lined up well to this point for former Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas. While we guessed he’d be able to command a five-year commitment and ranked him the sixth-best free agent available in our 2017-18 Top 50 Free Agents list, that level of contract is increasingly difficult to imagine.
In that ranking, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes listed the Angels, Braves, and Cardinals as conceivable landing spots. In a full breakdown, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted that a variety of other organizations could conceivably get involved on the still-youthful Moustakas. The Giants and Mets were clear possibilities on paper, with some scenarios imaginable in which teams like the Phillies, Red Sox, Indians, Orioles, or Twins might enter the picture. And, of course, the incumbent Royals were expected to remain in the frame to some extent.
As things have shaken out, several of the plausible pursuers have elected to go in different directions. The Angels (Zack Cozart), Giants (Evan Longoria), and Mets (Todd Frazier) now seem clearly out on Moustakas after adding third basemen. Any outside chance that the Phillies would get involved may have disappeared when the team signed Carlos Santana to play first base. There’s no indication that the Red Sox are looking in this direction, the Indians don’t seem to have funds available, and the Orioles and Twins remain only speculative possibilities at this stage. The Royals don’t seem to expect a reunion. While the Cardinals are still a conceivable fit, indications are the organization doesn’t like the match. Though the Braves likewise still theoretically work, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution suggested on Twitter today that he doesn’t expect the organization to offer up significant money. Developments have left the Yankees seeking a third baseman, but they are walking a luxury tax tightrope.
Quite apart from the broader market slow-down, then, there are arrows pointing toward trouble for agent Scott Boras in finding a major deal for Moustakas. That’s not to say it isn’t possible — it’s worth bearing in mind there was plenty of hand-wringing over Lorenzo Cain before he recently secured a significant contract, and Moustakas is hardly alone among still-unsigned premium free agents — but the picture does seem decidedly different than it did entering the winter.
All said, it seems an opportune moment to see what the MLBTR readership anticipates. Can Boras still pull off a big contract? Will “Moose” have to settle for significantly less? Is there a middle ground? Give your opinion here on the sort of contract Moustakas is likeliest to sign (link for app users):
3/36 with an opt out after 1
If Frazier only got 2/17, then Moose isn’t getting a third year. 2/22 with an opt out after the first year is my guess.
Frazier is 3 years older
But he is better defensively and a higher obp
And no qualifying offer attached
I think he gets something around this as well.
I’d almost say a pillow contract, but he would still have to battle some big free agents likee Donaldson and maybe beltre next year. I’d say a lesser multiyear deal
But there are teams that have been storing up money for the legend. Dary. 2019 FA class. The losers in the Donaldson/Machado sweeps could still benefit from Mous, especially if he rebounds on a 1-year deal in somewhere with a short RF porch like NYY or ATL. I know ATL would most likely pay a much higher AAV on a 1-year deal to not prevent Austin Riley from taking the reins over the next year-plus.
Yes, that’s a lot to ask for someone that was expecting a major deal, but look how Ian Desmond rebounded to score a great contract (for him, at least) in COL after a terrible contract year in WSH.
Except that Moose didn’t have a terrible year last year.
Not terrible, but not good. All he did was hit a lot of home runs in a year everyone hit a lot of homers.
I know, but it’s a historically bad market right now in part because of the depth of talent next year (imho). If he reentered next year, there should be a lot more interest, especially if he improved on some of his weaknesses, though his power was there (as it was for everyone in 2017).
Yes, the pillow deal, which worked out well for Beltre, would have Moustakas re-enter FA with Donaldson and Machado (among others) in competition for the same role (depending on Manny’s SS adventure this year).
In addition, any team signing him gives up the draft pick, making a 1 year deal especially bad for the signing team.
He passed on the qo so I think he’d only take a pillow contract if it came from the team he hopes to play for long term. As opposed to one of those ‘play for whoever to build up value for next year’s fa market’ deals.
I can’t wait for that hilarious commenter to say that he should have already signed a Minor League deal. He’s soooo funny, you guys!
Casey’s Partner has hopefully left us for a long time.
1 year for 15 million with a player option (so he could potentially try for a better deal) for the second year at the same value
I can’t imagine a team being dumb enough to give that much even on a 1 year deal to a guy who barely gets on base 30% of the time. Yes he has power but it seemed like most of the league had more power last year.
Despite his hitting, Moose can only dream of Martin Prado money (3/40). Which begs the question, how the hell did Prado ever get such a ridiculous, crazy, out of the realm of reasoning contract from Miami???
Prado got that big contract mainly because Loria knew that he wouldn’t be sticking around to pay it all.
In defense of Prado when healthy he was an upper tier and versatile player. He is also a leader in the clubhouse, you only need to ask Chipper Jones about what he meant to the team.
Why would any team spend a ton of money for a multi-year deal for Moustakas when Manny Machado is a free agent next year?
Umm, maybe because that team can’t afford a 28-30 million player?
Many cannot afford Manny next year.
Lol….nice
Machado might also insist on playing SS for his new team. It looks like a ploy to get more money on his next contract, but he could just want to play there primarily.
Sadly no one wants this guy lol, the longer he sits out the larger the hit to the bank he will take. Low obp average glove and doesnt look to age well due to average metrics across the board for his age.
Getting a little creative. 2 years, $13/14. Opt out after the first year for Moose, team option for 3rd year at $15M or buy out for $3M.
I agree with the structure, but I think the AAV is going to be a bit higher, $8-9 AAV, plus incentives.
I think that he meant $13 million for the first year, 14 million for the second.
I did. I should have written it better. I don’t think he’s going to go all the way down to Fraizer money. Basically, he locks in $30M if he chooses to stay, or he can roll the dice and opt out. Team risk mitigated by option, his risk by opt-out if he performs well next year. Since he’s had a QO, that’s off the table. The problem with the structure from the team perspective is the loss of pick. They may prefer a two year deal with an option for the 3rd.
Oh ok. My bad. Misunderstood. I think he’s going back to the royals. No one seems to be overly interested in him. I don’t see a team guaranteeing him much. I also forgot about the QO. No way in hell he gets over $17 million a year… if he were to sign elsewhere, I think you hit the nailed the structure of the contract… 4 thumbs down? come on man!
The Royals should just bring him back if it’s 10-12 aav. Id rather have a cheap moose than Hosmer breaking the bank
That’s a solid maybe. Dayton Moore sounds very unenthusiastic about the possibility of a return to KC. Not sure what Moustakas said on the way out, and the bridge may not be burned, but it sounds like it needs repair.
If he can get a 3 year deal he better take it. 3/27-30 would be good. Just a bit over a Frazier deal, I’d rather have Frazier myself. This guy has average written all over him.
I’d crack up if he got less than $10 million AAV
He was given a qualifying offer. How low of a contract does it have to be for a team signing him to avoid having to forfeit draft slots or international bonus money?
I think there is a difference at 50 MIl total value.
I still think there is some compensation.
Should have accepted the QO
Signing him for 1 year and giving up a draft pick makes even less sense.
Dude just isn’t that good.
I don’t see the incentive for a team to offer him an opt out, and as such I don’t expect him to get that offer. Either he takes Jay Bruce money or accepts a straight up, one year deal (though I can see him getting $15 million for that pillow).
With the market the way is I wish him the very best of luck. Seen where the Rangers signed Oh to a contract.
he won’t sign until after spring training starts
Has to be a multi-year deal or he goes back to the Royals. Royals 3+ years, with opt outs. No reason it can’t be a player friendly deal to retest the market. That said, I still think the Braves should put on the table a 3-4 year deal at $12m per. It’s a low ball (considering Boras) but it’s an option on the table. The draft pick hit won’t be nearly as tough for them to eat even with their penalty.
One year pillow contract with the O’s
Although, I do wonder if Dan Duquette will be still the GM or Showalter manager if Moose does indeed get the contract offer
That is what I was thinking, but the compensation (QO) would make that painful.
I could see the O’s making the only offer to Moustakas on a lowball 3 year deal – not talking David Freese money here, but somewhere in the neighborhood of $10M aav. This at least lands them Machado’s short term replacement affordably and makes it easier to trade Machado now or at the deadline.
I think a 3yr/20-30 mil with an opt out after the first year.
The only way I’d think it is likely Moustakas is signed by Atlanta is if it is for one season at ~ $15 million with a team option for a second year at $15 million or so. That way he doesn’t really block Riley, BUT Atlanta has the option in case Riley stalls in his development or suffers a major injury.
What, no option for a contract with a lesser amount and shorter term than originally demanded and have Boras screaming collusion at the top of his lungs?
Wouldn’t be surprised if nobody signs him.
Agreed. If anyone sees a market for Moose, it’s a mirage. Boras can pray for someone’s 3B to be injured in spring training, but even that scenario is very unlikely to spur any team to pay his ridiculous asking price.
Is Moose going to be working out with Stephen Drew?
It’s hilarious how out of touch fans are with the money in baseball. Really, only 3% think he’ll get five years at $15M per?
If teams would actually need him, he could certainly get that or even more than this. The issue is not that there is not enough money in baseball, but that there is no market for him. The teams that could pay him that kind of money (Giants, Angels, Yankees…) have (so far) chosen for other options and now there isn’t really an obvious fit.
None of the options are in yen.
The problem is that he’s not actually a “premium free agent”.
If you look at him hitting 38 HR you think wow he had a great year, but then you dig deeper and he was worth less than 2 WAR and his OBP was concerning. He’d help most teams, but not at premium cost.
Everything that glitters is not gold.
Moustakis comes with a draft pick surrender. I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t get picked up until June.
Pillow with an opt out, and dude should feel fortunate to get that.
He has his breakout power year and is only valued at 2.2 fWar, has only been worth 12.1 fWar in his career and has earned less than 1 fWar two out of the last four years plus as mentioned before is tied to draft pick compensation.
Hard pass for me unless his demands reduce dramatically
Man he’s in a tight spot. He basically turned down a 1 year pillow deal for 17.4 million dollars and I don’t think teams will want to lose a pick on a 1 year pillow or even a 2 year with a player option after 1. Yankees might take a risk and do it.
It appears his agent might have to look for a 3 year deal in 30-33 million range. Either it appears he screwed himself out of some money by not accepting the Royals offer.
At some point his price may come down to the level where a back loaded deal from the Braves is the best deal available and represents too much value for the Braves to pass up.
Something like 4/55 broken down as roughly 8/15/15/15, maybe with an option tacked on the end.
Why would you do that?? Look, he’s a decent player, but what if we either have a better option right now in system (Riley) or could be serious players for Donaldson/Machado? I’m not holding my breath for either, but I also wouldn’t lock up that position for the next 4 years.
Mous at 4/55 through his age 33 season represents more value than Donaldson at 5/140 or 6/150 through his late 30s. There is a zero percent chance the Braves sign Machado. Riley is a good prospect, but he isn’t the type of prospect a team should be planning the future around (like Swanson, Albies and Acuna).
I don’t think Mous makes a lot of sense for the Braves, but at some price point the value is worth adjusting their plans. Getting him for something like 4/55 on a back loaded deal is about where I think that price point is.
Anything more then 2 years for Moose is a bad idea…especially back loading on a 4 year deal for a guy that will not likely age well.
I agree…anything above 1 year is a horrible idea. Makes no sense to invest in a guy like this in any kind of long term commitment.
I think signing him to a one year deal is a horrible idea unless he takes like $5m.
OVERRATED. PERIOD.
I agree that a 2 year deal makes sense for the Braves at a very reasonable AAV. I would like to see what he can do with that porch in RF. He can be traded if Riley is ready quickly.
He hit 38 bombs last year and was still a meh player. Power is not short of supply right now.
Defense, baserunning, & discipline at the plate matter
This pillow contract talk is getting ridiculous. The vast majority of players have no interest in going through free agency this year just to go through it again next year. Besides the fact that Moose would be in the market next year with Machado and Donaldson. He won’t fare any better next year.
Please tell me about all the multi year offers he has on the table right now
Am I the only person that would not be surprised to see him not signed at all? I feel his best option is to ask Kansas City to sign him for 1 year at 10M. He made a horrible mistake not taking the qualifying offer.
Agreed
Moustakas is the epitome of OVERRATED.
I won’t really throw that word out there. The only people who think he is overrated are himself and his agent.
I wonder if he’d consider signing a 1 year pillow deal with the Yankees. He’d crush in that stadium & lineup. They need a lefty bat, and it would give Andujar another season of minor league ball to better his defense at third. Moose could have a monster year in that stadium, with that line up, and could set himself up for a nice pay day in 2019.
I doubt it, but you never know in this market.
He’s not worth it!
I can’t believe how overrated Moustakas is. And why the heck would he settle for a one year deal? Someone will eventually give the guy 2 or 3 years. Let them make that mistake.
Yankees can hold down the hot corner for a year with either a youngster or a platoon of guys like Andujar, Torreyes, and possibly Espinosa w/o spending a ton on a second rate Free Agent looking to be overpaid. We might as well have signed Frazier.
Why would the Yankees forfeit their 2nd and 5th highest draft picks this year + $1million in international pool money for 1 yr of Moose?
Why would any team?
I wonder how angry the Moustakas camp is with Justin Turner’s contract. I’m pretty sure at one point someone threw a 4 yr $60 mil contract at him and him and his agent probably laughed. But c’mon Moustakas, you are not better than Turner.. arguably not even better than Frazier.
Two years, 26 million, 15 the first year, opt out provision from the Yankees. This could be, theoretically a record season for the Yankees (Stanton, Judge, Sanchez,etc) Get on board the Yankee bandwagon, because it will certainly a media blitz in favour of the New York Nine
If his price falls far enough, Moose could be a nice short term bargain for the White Sox, who need a lefty bat. Moose would enjoy hitting in Chicago for 81 games.
Boras is going to be stuck with several high-end players without big deals because he’s greedy and thinks every player demands 10 years 250 million maybe teams are just tired of getting two or three years good production out of a player and then having to eat 100 million because they suck
Thinking creatively here: Yankees, two years, league minimum the first year and 24M year two with a 24M buyout. Unless there’s some technicalities involved could be an interesting way to dodge the tax this year.
Make that a 12M buyout.
I think AAV would make that pointless…can’t dodge the tax that easily