The Moose is loose on the free agent market, as Mike Moustakas looks to convert his big power year into a pricey multi-year contract.
Strengths/Pros
After playing in only 27 games in 2016 due to a torn right ACL, Moustakas rebounded to earn AL Comeback Player Of The Year honors after batting .272/.314/.521 with 38 homers over 598 plate appearances. He outhomered every full-time third baseman in baseball last season, and only seven players overall hit more than Moustakas’ 38 dingers. Between this performance, his breakout 2015 campaign, and even his abbreviated 2016 numbers, Moustakas has been a solidly above-average hitter over his last 1325 PA, creating 18% more (hypothetical) runs than the average hitter since the start of the 2015 season.
Moustakas’ 38 homers set a new Royals single-season record, breaking the surprisingly long-lasting old mark of 36 set by Steve Balboni back in 1985. Needless to say, Kauffman Stadium isn’t friendly to home run hitters, making Moustakas’ feat all the more impressive. Since much of his damage came away from Kansas City last year (.284/.326/.582 with 24 homers in 310 away-game plate appearances), it could be argued that Moustakas would be even more dangerous playing his home games in a less-spacious ballpark.
Prior to 2017, Moustakas had been a solid defender at third base, with the UZR/150 metric providing more consistently positive reviews about his glovework than the Defensive Runs Saved metric.
Moustakas just turned 29 in September, making him younger than most of the other top free agent batters. Going by the last few seasons, he’s reaching the open market right in the midst of his hitting prime, making him a safer bet for a long-term deal than older players who may have more overt question marks about possible decline.
Weaknesses/Cons
Moustakas’ 55.6% swing rate was topped by only six qualified hitters last season, and Moustakas’ free-swinging ways resulted in both a career-low 5.7% walk rate and his highest strikeout rate (15.7%) since 2013. To be fair, that strikeout rate is actually more than respectable given how often Moustakas was swinging away, though it doesn’t seem sustainable given his only-okay career contact rates. While Moustakas was a good hitter in both 2015 and 2017, these are also his only two full seasons of above-average production, so any weak points (like an inflated swing rate) tend to stand out as red flags.
With just a .305 career OBP and a track record as a subpar baserunner, Moustakas is reliant on his power to prop up his offensive value. That’s not a bad skill to have in the recent era of big homer totals and a seemingly livelier baseball, though it does make Moustakas potentially susceptible to a drop in production should MLB explore a re-design of the balls.
As mentioned earlier, Moustakas had been a good defender for much of his career, though he was below-average in both DRS (minus-8) and UZR/150 (-3.6) in 2017. This is certainly a worry for teams wondering if Moustakas might not be the same after his ACL surgery, though it also isn’t uncommon for players to simply need some time to shake off the rust in the wake of such injuries. It’s worth noting that the Royals used Moustakas as a designated hitter in 17 games last season in an effort to keep him fresh.
Because Moustakas rejected the Royals’ qualifying offer, a new team would have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some international bonus pool money in order to sign the third baseman. (You can find a full overview of the new QO signing rules here.)
Personal
Moustakas was born in Los Angeles and played his high school ball at local Chatsworth HS before the Royals selected him with the second overall pick of the 2007 draft. A highly-regarded prospect throughout his minor league career, Moustakas was a key member of the homegrown core of talent that came up together though Kansas City’s farm system and helped deliver the Royals a World Series title in 2015.
After over a decade with the franchise, Moustakas has naturally created strong bonds with the organization and within the Kansas City community, and is well-regarded as a teammate and clubhouse leader. Moustakas and wife Stephanie married in 2014 and they welcomed their first daughter in August 2016.
Market
MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently made the argument that Todd Frazier, not Moustakas, may be the best third baseman on the market this winter, though since Moustakas is over two and a half years younger, he stands out as the more logical choice for a team looking for a long-term answer at the hot corner.
Moustakas’ relative youth might also make him attractive to a team that may not be planning to contend in 2018, but wants to lock down third base in preparation for a run in 2019 and beyond. Teams like the Phillies or Braves could fit this description if they respectively decide against going with Maikel Franco or waiting for prospect Austin Riley, though both teams seem like longshot candidates for Moustakas’ services. You can similarly squint and see how Moustakas could fit with the Red Sox, Indians, or Mets, though the latter two teams probably won’t have the payroll room and Boston likely wants to give Rafael Devers a longer look at third base before considering him as a first baseman.
The Giants and Cardinals are both currently tied up pursuing Giancarlo Stanton, though both teams could certainly use Moustakas’ power, with San Francisco in particular having a glaring hole at third base. A surprise team like the Orioles (if Manny Machado is moved to shortstop) or Twins (if Miguel Sano can’t handle regular third base duties after leg surgery) could also emerge. The Angels are currently focused on second basemen and plan to use Luis Valbuena in a third base platoon, so a return to his hometown doesn’t seem likely for Moustakas — unless the Halos miss out on Shohei Ohtani and thus change their DH/first base plans.
A return to Kansas City also can’t be entirely ruled out, as the Royals have some interest in re-signing at least one of Moustakas or Eric Hosmer. Conversely, the Royals also seem on the brink of a rebuild, so they could be better served in letting that duo (and Lorenzo Cain) leave in free agency and then collecting the draft picks due to them since Moustakas, Hosmer, and Cain all rejected qualifying offers.
Expected Contract
MLBTR ranked Moustakas sixth on our list of the offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents, with a predicted contract of five years and $85MM. That still seems like a reasonable prediction, even if the Stanton/Ohtani chases have been holding up the market for big-ticket free agents and an increased number of front offices are willing to play the waiting game. Moustakas is represented by Scott Boras, who is no stranger himself to keeping his clients available until an acceptably large contract can be found. Moustakas looks to be one of the prime beneficiaries once the Stanton and Ohtani markets are resolved, particularly given this winter’s thin third base market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
I would kill to see him play any of 1st/3rd/ or DH for my Yankees.
Whisper of a dream.
Keep dreaming yank
“as mentioned earlier, Moustakas had been a good defender for much of his career, though he was below-average in both DRS (minus-8) and UZR/150 (-3.6) in 2017. ”
I’d like to point out that Moose was dealing with a knee injury nearly half of the season, and that can explain away his sub-par defense at 3rd. He was quite obviously hobbled out there. and was only in the lineup due to the HR record chase and the slim possibility of the Royals making the playoffs. Plus the guy is a gamer and probably told Ned he didn’t want to sit the bench.
Let’s face it, it was his walk year so while I’m sure he’s a good guy and all that, he almost assuredly wanted to put up big numbers to get that big contract.
Please Angels, Don’t!!
You would have Valbuena at third base?
Big free agents coming up that’s y
I think they will. It wouldn’t be bad if the get him on the cheap (~$15M per) and no more than 4 years, but I think he’ll get 5/90. Angels need a 3B’man, and his power LH bat compliments nicely in the middle of the order.
I want the Orioles to trade Manny Machado and then for the O’s to sign Mike Moustakas
Maybe Manny could go to the Angels, maybe Mike Scioscia could get the most out of him and team him up with Upton, Trout, and others,
LOL to the Angels for who? They have no farm and the O’s will want prospects. Machado could easily get a return of a top 5 prospect and several top 100 prospects.
For one year? He’s free after 2018 season.
The Angels ave some decent OF’ers in their system
I would definitely consider Jo Adell and Jahmai Jones
I like moose, but I think whoever signs him is going to be very disappointed.
Sorry didn’t mean to reply
No issue on my side reply away
If one goes by the eye test which the Royals have been in the public eye frequently in the last 3 years, Moose has performed when it’s counted most after his stint in Omaha halfway though the 2014 season and if not for the injury last year, I have no doubt Jt would’ve been another power packed campaign. Personally I wouldn’t mind the Cards to make a play for that he’s the type of free agent that seems worth it primarily because of his young age for free agency. I’m always leery of FA position players older than 30…
High Swing Rate % and low BB % is by design for a player trying to increase his FA value by simply trying to hit HR’s every AB. Guess what? It worked.
Why would the Angels be out on Moustakas because of Valbuena? He’s only signed through next year. If anything, Valbuena can be a utility backup at 1B/2B/3B. We can still go after a long-term solution at 2B (e.g. Gordon) and fit Moustakas in there. That would be a pretty solid infield that would be intact until 2020.
If the Angels sign Moustakas then maybe they’d trade Valbuena to the Braves to help man thirdbase until Austin Riley is ready. While Valbuena flopped in 2017 he had above average OPS+ each season from 2014-2016 and produced between 1.6 to 2.6 bWAR each year from 2013-2016. He probably could be acquired for very little too after his poor production in 2017.
Nah. Valbuena had a bad 1st half but played well in the last 3+ months. He’s a solid bounce back who’s cheap and versatile. We’ll keep him and avoid Moose I think. Doesn’t fit the Eppler agenda of improving team OBP.
Why would u sign moose when machado is a free agent next year, I’m sure the angels will try and sign him. These next 3 years r big free agent years we need to save money if we want to win
Teams need to move on from Stanton/ohanti and improve there clubs we already know both players have limited there landing spots so let’s get a move on this hot stove season
the angels should trade for a solid cheap 3b to platoon with valbuena and keep cowart for depth. they should go for a longer-term, higher profile 2b. valbuena had a solid 2nd half and could easily bounce back next year.they should pick up someone like dee gordon who can hit lead off and man 2b for a few years if they want to contend.
Moose is a better defender than last year when he came back from his 2016 injury. He also played the last 6 weeks on a bum knee hoping to break the HR record this year. Good team player and good clubhouse guy. I say he goes to the Angels to be closer to his family. He has his ring. Me I enjoyed watching him play as I am a Royals fan.
Id like for the Red Sox to do more than squint at it. Theyd be much better suited splitting time between Devers and Hanley on DH and 1st.
I would like to see the San Diego Padres sign The Moose. If you look at the reasons the writer said the Phillies and Braves should sign Moustakas, they also apply to the Padres. The Padres have one of the best, and the deepest Farm systems in MLB; however, the possibilities at 3rd Base are minimal. The Padres have the payroll, a need for a 3rd baseman and a left handed bat in the lineup. The Padres are projected to have a payroll south of $60m in 2018. Adding Ohtani and Moustakas to the Padre 25 man roster, and 3 of the top 50 picks [including #7] would continue the steady march of improvement for San Diego. Its San Diego Against Everybody!