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Poll: Still-Unemployed Top Ten Free Agents

By Kyle Downing | February 24, 2018 at 3:08pm CDT

Spring training has begun, and while recent announcements by the Cubs and Padres of nine-figure deals (with Yu Darvish and Eric Hosmer, respectively) have quieted cries of collusion from the player’s union, the unemployment level of top free agents remains historic. Specifically, five of MLBTR’s top ten free agents (excluding Masahiro Tanaka, who never actually reached free agency) are still unsigned. The recent mega-contracts have overshadowed the urgency of the situation for these free agents, as they’ve got barely more than a month left to find jobs before Opening Day. As each day passes, it becomes more difficult to simply assume that Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas, Lance Lynn, Greg Holland and Alex Cobb will all agree to terms before that time comes.

The market on the above players isn’t totally cold as of now. On the contrary, there seems to be some buzz surrounding many of them. Here’s what we know at the moment…

Arrieta and his representatives were said to be “having dialogue” as recently as four days ago, and it’s believed that there’s real interest being explored. At the same time, though, there appears to be a gap between the two sides’ bargaining positions. There have also been multiple recent reports that the Phillies don’t want to lock themselves into a long-term deal to improve their rotation. While Darvish fell short of expectations with a $126MM guarantee, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports says Boras is attempting to convince front offices that Arrieta compares more favorably to David Price, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke. The oft-vehement Boras apparently sees Darvish as an “analytics phenom”, but describes analytics as a “management excuse to keep salaries down.” He also says that Arrieta beats Darvish in something he calls “prestige” value. Heyman lists seven teams as potential landing spots for Arrieta, believing he’s most likely to land with the Nationals, Brewers or Phillies.

Moustakas seems to have little traction with any MLB club at this point. The Braves have engaged his camp, but there seems to be no evidence that a deal is likely to come together. The White Sox have also been loosely linked to him. It’s highly unlikely that he’ll return to Kansas City at this point, as the Royals would apparently rather give Cheslor Cuthbert a shot at third base as they begin to rebuild. Moose reportedly has plenty of one-year offers on the table, but it’s not clear whether he’ll receive any significant multi-year offers at this point in the offseason.

Lynn hasn’t been forced to dramatically lower his asking price, and last we heard, the Twins preferred him to the other options available on the market. Earlier reports suggest he’s received interest from seven or eight teams in recent weeks, including the Orioles, Brewers, Nationals, and Mets in addition to the aforementioned Twins. For his part, Lynn believes there’s “nothing really to worry about — at this moment.“

Holland has the coldest market on this list, at least publicly. The Wade Davis signing seemingly eliminated the possibility of a reunion with the Rockies, and in nearly two months since then, the only public mentions of Holland have been from the Nationals and the Cardinals. Both of those mentions were negative, with the former saying they weren’t very high on him and the latter expressing trepidation about giving a big contract to a closer. Of course, those teams could still be suitors if Holland’s asking price drops far enough, and so could the Indians. I also mentioned the Astros, Rangers, Cubs and Brewers as potential fits back in mid-January.

Cobb reportedly had an offer from the Cubs earlier in the offseason that was said to be in three-year, $42MM range. His camp passed on it, and his market has little in the way of clarity at this point. The Twins showed interest at one point, while the Mets would reportedly explore signing him if his asking price drops far enough. That’s about the only direct link between him and an MLB club we’ve heard about in recent months, though. The Orioles seem to believe he’s too expensive, and the Cubs might not have a clear role for him following the Darvish pact.

A lot can happen in one month; the free agent action so far in February should serve as a prime indicator of that. But at this point it looks possible that one or more of the top ten free agents could hold out into the regular season in hopes of nailing down a guarantee to his liking. With that in mind, I’d like to ask the readers two questions. How many of these players do you think will still be unemployed when the first pitch is thrown on Opening Day, and who do you think is most likely to be unsigned by that point?

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Alex Cobb Greg Holland Jake Arrieta Lance Lynn Mike Moustakas

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96 Comments

  1. johnny53811

    7 years ago

    Starters are bound to go down throughout spring training. 3B are less likely so I think it will be hardest for moustakas to find a job… unless he lowers his price. As for Cobb he should’ve taken that $42 because he’s not even worth that

    7
    Reply
    • TomBradyrings

      7 years ago

      I usually don’t side wth the players but Cobb is worth more than that. Guy held is own in the AL East could be a number 2 in the NL.

      1
      Reply
      • One Fan

        7 years ago

        How is he worth more if no other team thinks so

        1
        Reply
        • kbarr888

          7 years ago

          Old Standard……

          “He’s Only Worth What Someone Will PAY For Him.”

          That’s all she wrote

          1
          Reply
        • jleve618

          7 years ago

          I bet you would bid against yourself as a GM.

          1
          Reply
      • jordanrulestheworld

        7 years ago

        “I usually don’t side with players” lol. Sports the only time ever everyday working people side with billionaire owners over the working class. Incredible

        Reply
        • Groucho

          7 years ago

          Professional athletes making 8 figure salaries are the working class? I know one thing they don’t worry about every day: money. How about: professional sports is the only sector of the economy where Unions still have real power? That’s unbelievable…

          Reply
  2. insane trades

    7 years ago

    Arrieta wishes he could redo the FA offseason. This cannot be good on the mental side of his game.

    6
    Reply
    • chgobangbang

      7 years ago

      Borass comparing arietta contractually to grieneke price and max S is rather comical! SHOCKA he’s still unemployed

      8
      Reply
    • One Fan

      7 years ago

      Arrieta is a clown and getting bad advice from Boras

      8
      Reply
      • Cardinals17

        7 years ago

        Boras seems to be pricing his own clients out of the market with his unhinged mouth. If I were over 31, I wouldn’t want Boras as my agent anymore. He’s comparing apples to oranges. That won’t work in this world of metrics.

        Reply
  3. Phillies2017

    7 years ago

    Moose is in the worst place. All the other guys could theoretically get a 1-year deal and reenter the market without a QO but Moose cant do that based on the market.
    His best bet is a 3-year deal with an opt-out after 2 at about $12m a year.

    1
    Reply
    • chgobangbang

      7 years ago

      Who wants to give up a draft choice on moose on a one year deal?

      1
      Reply
      • ShermansMom

        7 years ago

        Who is going to give Moustakas a one year deal for $50 million?

        Reply
      • kbarr888

        7 years ago

        Nobody said Moose was taking a 1-yr deal…..

        1
        Reply
  4. Howard-NY13

    7 years ago

    Jd martinez is the best free agent right now first of all. Because he still hasn’t signed with the Red Sox so.

    3
    Reply
    • CAngels4

      7 years ago

      He’s not a free agent anymore

      1
      Reply
      • acarneglia

        7 years ago

        The signing isn’t official due to medical complications

        2
        Reply
        • rez2405 2

          7 years ago

          He’s right he know

          Reply
  5. mike156

    7 years ago

    Lynn and Cobb will each find a home, and before Arrietta. 3 year deals. Neither is old, but they are still post injury. The signers might get lucky. 3/39 for Cobb, 3/45 Lynn

    1
    Reply
    • pdxbrewcrew

      7 years ago

      And that seems appropriate for those two. I wouldn’t doubt that that’s right around where most teams are pricing them. But I would imagine they’re looking for that fourth year, and I don’t think anyone is going to give them it.

      Reply
    • Philliesfan4life

      7 years ago

      The phillies offered Arrieta a three year deal but they didn’t say how much per year, If it was 3 years for 75 plus a 4th or 5th year option. I would of taken it.

      Reply
    • Cardinals17

      7 years ago

      Whoever gets Lynn, is going to get a reliable starter. Innings eater and has a good winning percentage with post Season experience galore.

      Reply
  6. Cat Mando

    7 years ago

    OK…everyone go into work Monday and tell your boss you deserve a raise because you have “prestige value”.

    9
    Reply
    • CursedRangers

      7 years ago

      Haha! I can only picture the laughter coming from my boss if I did that.

      4
      Reply
      • Cat Mando

        7 years ago

        I wonder if it would work in divorce court?

        Reply
    • Daniel Youngblood

      7 years ago

      Prestige … stige … stige. Worldwide … wide. wide.

      2
      Reply
      • Phillies2017

        7 years ago

        **Boras’ Presentation**
        Investors??

        Possibly you!!

        2
        Reply
        • dugdog83

          7 years ago

          Deadliest catch without the crabs

          1
          Reply
  7. Gwynning's Anal Lover

    7 years ago

    Can they file for unemployment within their respective states?

    3
    Reply
    • Joe Kerr

      7 years ago

      lol can you imagine that interview? Why are you unemployed, well because I rejected 42 million, so what can you give me until I sign?

      7
      Reply
      • Polish Hammer

        7 years ago

        Didn’t stop Kaepernick from opting out of a contract and then suing because nobody wanted to sign him.

        1
        Reply
        • bluegorilla

          7 years ago

          Le sigh

          Reply
    • kleppy12

      7 years ago

      I know this probably a joke but no they cannot.

      1
      Reply
      • pdxbrewcrew

        7 years ago

        They’re probably eligible to apply, since most states consider professional athletes from team sports to be employees, not independent contractors. But they also have to accept any reasonable offer in their field to receive benefits. And turning down $10 million a year so you can get $13 million would probably be deemed unreasonable.

        Reply
  8. mbgutt

    7 years ago

    To bad pirates will not sign one or two of the starters

    3
    Reply
  9. terry g

    7 years ago

    While I could see a one year pillow contract on several of these, the QO hurts. Can’t think of anyone that would want to sign a player to a one year and lose draft choices.

    2
    Reply
    • jeremyr

      7 years ago

      I believe a team now only loses a pick if the contract is $50 million or more. So a 1 or 2 or even 3 year deal might not involve a draft pick

      Reply
      • Aaron Sapoznik

        7 years ago

        You belief is in error. Years or dollars associated with a signed contract have no bearing on the forfeiture of a draft pick involving a FA who rejected a QO.

        The new rules involving draft pick loss by the signing team have changed from the old CBA but it involves what selection or selections are lost based on three criteria:

        1-A team that exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year’s Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest remaining picks as well.

        2-A team that receives revenue sharing will lose its third-highest selection in the following year’s Draft. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its fourth-highest remaining pick.

        3-A team that neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection in the following year’s Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick.

        Reply
  10. hiflew

    7 years ago

    Am I the only one just seeing 5 of the top 10?

    1
    Reply
    • 24TheKid

      7 years ago

      I see 5 as well.

      1
      Reply
      • Cat Mando

        7 years ago

        Because that’s all they listed….”Specifically, five of MLBTR’s top ten free agents (excluding Masahiro Tanaka, who never actually reached free agency) are still unsigned.”

        Reply
        • 24TheKid

          7 years ago

          I wasn’t saying it was a problem, I was just answering the question.

          Reply
        • hiflew

          7 years ago

          Fair enough, but the headline made me think it was the top 10 still unsigned free agents. Just a strangely worded headline.

          1
          Reply
        • Cat Mando

          7 years ago

          I was just pointing out why there was only 5.

          Reply
        • hiflew

          7 years ago

          It’s all good man.

          1
          Reply
  11. kent814

    7 years ago

    What other types of free agents are there? Employed free agents?

    2
    Reply
    • swinging wood

      7 years ago

      Apologies from the staff at MLBTR for triggering your delicacies in being offended by the lack of an inclusion of an asterisk denoting that a free agent in the context of this article is as of November 2nd, 2017.

      Reply
  12. JFactor

    7 years ago

    I love how analytics are the problem according to Boras when the final two teams playing in the WS, and the last two WS teams are analytically driven.

    Boras needs to learn to adapt.

    5
    Reply
    • PhanaticDuck26

      7 years ago

      haha, yea i found that funny as well. who needs numbers, right guys? baseball never relied on statistics! nevermind his plummeting performance since he threw 230 innings in 2015, my client has “”prestige” value and deserves a Scherzer contract. Boras is totally clueless at this point…

      2
      Reply
      • czontixhldr

        7 years ago

        I read that Heyman piece. He should be friggin’ embarrassed to put his byline on in. What a Boras ….. ok, I was going to write something really crude, but I know kids read this site so I didn’t.

        I admire Boras – a very successful guy and he gets his guys paid, but WOW!

        His definition of “prestige value” includes championships?

        SFW. I’m a Phillies fan. IDGAS that Jake Arrieta won a championship somewhere else, and if Matt Klentak pays a premium for that BS, then MacPhail should fire him 5 minutes ago.

        What a pile of dung.

        2
        Reply
  13. JFactor

    7 years ago

    Moose needs to accept a one year, pillow contract. Show that the power is real, and raise his obp and then go to the suitor that losses out on Donaldson next off-season while not having a QO attached to him.

    Reply
    • bluegorilla

      7 years ago

      He’ll not only be behind Donaldson. Machado is a tad bit better than Moose as well.

      Reply
      • czontixhldr

        7 years ago

        Tad bit?

        Reply
  14. Aaron Sapoznik

    7 years ago

    It would appear that Mike Moustakas is in the toughest spot among these free agents due to the position he plays and the qualifying offer attached to him. The two teams that have been “loosely” associated with him are each still in rebuild mode and probably not inclined to punt a high second round draft pick in order to sign him because of the compensation. Unless some other team among the contenders loses a third baseman this spring his market figures to linger the longest among those listed here.

    I’m sure the White Sox would have an interest in Moustakas with a weakness at 3B along with a need for a left-handed hitting power bat in the middle of their batting order. But the QO likely dissuades them from signing him unless “Moose” remains unsigned until June 4th when the Rule 4 amateur draft begins. It is at that date when QO compensation becomes null and void for any qualified FA who hasn’t inked a deal yet.

    1
    Reply
    • arc89

      7 years ago

      Problem is Boras with him. Boras claimed he was a $100 million player but its more like a 3/36 player. He will not come down on price so he will sit most of the year until June 4th and sign a 1 year deal to gain enough to re enter the draft next year.

      Reply
  15. HarveyD82

    7 years ago

    ichiro? has he been signed? someone could use him. one more year!

    2
    Reply
  16. yoyo137

    7 years ago

    Scott Boras is on drugs talking about prestige value, analytics phenoms, and volcanoes of hot talent lava. Get this man some help

    1
    Reply
    • Solaris601

      7 years ago

      Boras is a used car salesman who wandered into the area of MLB player representation one day and conned everyone into believing he was legit. Can’t imagine his clients are too thrilled with him right now.

      Reply
  17. johnboy1963

    7 years ago

    Come on brewers sign Cobb or lynn either 1 would be your number 1 guy

    1
    Reply
  18. srechter

    7 years ago

    Anyone think the Yankees could snag holland on a cheap, one year deal to even further add to a behemoth bullpen?

    2
    Reply
    • MC Tim C

      7 years ago

      That would be a waste of money. It wouldn’t be cheap either if it’s a one year deal. Why on earth would the Yankees sign another bullpen arm? That’s literally the last thing they need.

      1
      Reply
    • kbarr888

      7 years ago

      Doesn’t Holland have Draft Pick Compensation attached to him?

      He refused a QO. from Colorado……

      1
      Reply
      • Kayrall

        7 years ago

        He also turned down the same offer that Davis accepted that set the record for AAV for relief pitcher. Holland is another one of those players that are significantly over valuing their talent.

        1
        Reply
        • One Fan

          7 years ago

          Holland is another idiot listening to that moron Scott Boras who screwed Holland by talking him out of accepting that deal

          Reply
    • One Fan

      7 years ago

      So the Yankees will go over the tax and lose a draft pick to sign Holland for one year? And have Holland do what? Pitch the 5th?

      And if Holland would be willing to sign a one year deal you think he would pick the Yankees where he will not close?

      Reply
  19. gookstyle

    7 years ago

    Angels NEED a closer. This “closer by committee” crap never works. Please Arte/Eppler: just sign him

    1
    Reply
    • brucewayne

      7 years ago

      It worked for the Reds

      Reply
      • brucewayne

        7 years ago

        and the Nasty Boys when they won the WS in 1990 !

        Reply
  20. leprechaun

    7 years ago

    Both Cobb and Arrieta will wish they had accepted the Cubs offers, neither will get more now.

    2
    Reply
    • MC Tim C

      7 years ago

      Agreed. Especially Arrieta. He’s not going to get more years or overall money than Darvish no matter what nonsense Boras tries to sell.

      3
      Reply
  21. whitemule70

    7 years ago

    “Prestige value.” Hilarious. Some people fall for this baloney? I hope not.

    1
    Reply
  22. carlos15

    7 years ago

    Most of the players remaining are either not that good, their performance has deteriorated over previous years, they want way too much money, or they don’t stay healthy enough for teams to want to commit. It’s not a great free agent class and these guys have stupid expectations. It’s not collusion it’s common sense, this crop of players have many more downsides and risks than upside. It doesn’t matter anyway because they’ll all sign some bogus multi year dear with opt outs which is just protection for the player to cash in if there is a better market a year later or keep getting paid even if they suck.

    3
    Reply
  23. bykoric

    7 years ago

    The fact that Arrieta isn’t signed yet is shocking. He’s got to have gotten like 3-$60, maybe 5-$100 at most and he’s still turning them down. You put him on a team like Milwaukee or St. Louis (or even the Dodgers) and they’re better because of it. Jake might not be the guy from 2014-2016, but he’s not your #5 starter… at worst he’s your #3. I blame his agent at this point. They have to know, the longer they wait, the smaller the deals get and no way in hell Arrieta makes that money back. And if he were to sit out like the year… he’d be luck to get a 2-year $10M per deal!

    And as of today, I still think he’s going to be a mid-season signing. And I also wonder if he’s thinking he might as well screw the Cubs out of draft compensation out of spite.

    1
    Reply
    • bluegorilla

      7 years ago

      Why would he want to screw the Cubs? They allowed him to go back to his preferred mechanics. They were where he had his big league success. And the Cubs still gave him his 2 biggest contract offers – an extension 2 years ago and a chance at the Darvish contract a few weeks ago. Arrieta turned them down.

      Reply
      • bluegorilla

        7 years ago

        *extension offer, obviously, since it wasn’t signed.

        Reply
  24. of9376

    7 years ago

    Signing Jake Arrieta is like buying a 2018 Mercedes-Benz with 100,000 miles on it. His arm won’t last through a 5 year contract.
    I see him signing a 2yr – 36mil contract .

    2
    Reply
  25. Dodgethis

    7 years ago

    I’m surprised more people don’t point out the three basic reasons for this season’s free agent market.

    The crazy crop of free agents next year.
    The big spender teams are resetting their tax penalty for next year’s free agents.
    The age and talant level of the current free agents.

    It’s obvious to me but I’m an outsider. I don’t have all the information.

    3
    Reply
    • PhanaticDuck26

      7 years ago

      pretty sure those topics have been analyzed in painstaking detail throughout this slllloooowww offseason

      Reply
    • One Fan

      7 years ago

      Dodgethis you nailed it

      Reply
    • jeremyr

      7 years ago

      That only explains the rich teams not spending, it doesn’t explain the mid level teams not spending.

      The Brewers did all this work, to improve their lineup but have no starting pitching. 2 out of 3 of Arrieta, Lynn, and Cobb would make them go from a .500 ish team to a wild card team

      Reply
      • daveineg

        7 years ago

        Their “no starting pitching” top 3 starters heading into the season went a combined 42-23 with a combined 3.58 ERA last season. Nelson is on schedule to return in June was 12-6 with a 3.49 ERA last year.

        Among the guys battling for the remaining spots are the current #61 prospect per BA who posted a 3.28 ERA in his first 6 major league starts before a couple of clunkers to close it out plus the guy who pitched so well in 2016, he was their 2017 opening day starter plus their one time ace, who’s in the Brewers all time top 10 in virtually every category. and a soft tossing but effective lefty who pitched so well in a playoff race that the team won 5 of his 6 starts in September.

        Keep thinking the Brewers have no pitching.

        Reply
  26. conch

    7 years ago

    To me, they can put their arms where their mouths are. Sign for 3 Years with an heavy incentive laden deal. Perform and get paid.

    Reply
  27. FriendOfBoras

    7 years ago

    Not sure how Arietta is still a free agent, not too often you find an ace without a job.

    Reply
    • One Fan

      7 years ago

      Arrieta is not an ace and there are not any aces currently without a job

      1
      Reply
      • Aaron Sapoznik

        7 years ago

        Define ace.

        Among the 3 teams most likely to sign Arrieta, would he not be considered the ace of both the Phillies and Brewers for the upcoming season? As for the third club, the Nationals, he would slot in #3 behind two pitchers who are each considered “aces” in their own right, Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.

        Arrieta was in a similar situation with the Cubs. He was not considered the “ace” heading into his historic 2015 season. Jon Lester was considered the ace on opening day. There is no question that Arrieta was the North Side ace as the team headed in to the postseason.

        Reply
        • czontixhldr

          7 years ago

          “Among the 3 teams most likely to sign Arrieta, would he not be considered the ace of both the Phillies and Brewers for the upcoming season? ”

          Actually, in Philadelphia he’d probably be the #2.

          Yes, Nola s only 24, but he’s not even in his prime, whereas Arrieta has declined the last 2 years.

          Arrieta would only be the #1 in Philly in terms of “prestige value”.

          1
          Reply
  28. Pedro Cerrano's Voodoo

    7 years ago

    I really hate Scott Boras.

    Reply
  29. mickey802

    7 years ago

    Moose takes a 1 year deal and then Machado goes to the market next year. Take a 2 year deal for 12 million per year and see ya on the Yankees.

    Reply
  30. tigerdoc616

    7 years ago

    I’d be surprised if any of these guys remains unsigned by opening day. Agents job is to get his client the best contract he can. But at the end of the day no one gets paid if the player does not sign.

    Reply
  31. Darrylx77

    7 years ago

    I want to thank Jake Arrieta for the wonderful years that he gave the fans of Chicago! The Cubs have tried to sign him for the last three years and he has turned down every offer! I think that his ego has done him in! This divorce has been in the works for the last three years! I wish him the best and I will not be surprised if we see him trying to stick it to the Cubs by signing a lowball deal with the Cardinals or with the Brewers!

    Reply
    • Aaron Sapoznik

      7 years ago

      Jake Arrieta can also “stick it to the Cubs” by signing with the Nationals who they may have to go through in the postseason in order to reach the World Series. A top three rotation in Washington featuring Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Arrieta would be no picnic and matches up favorably with any elite trio in MLB including the Cubs.

      Reply
    • brucewayne

      7 years ago

      Yup! That will really show em

      Reply
      • brucewayne

        7 years ago

        Arrieta signing a lowball deal will surely put him winning over the Cubs! LoL

        Reply
  32. Ski to Coors

    7 years ago

    Holland would be OK to wait past opening day. Wait for a team to realize they need a closer in a month or two. Surprised the Cards haven’t paid him his money yet.

    Reply
  33. jd396

    7 years ago

    If Arrieta still thinks he’s ever going to get a 200m contract without it being in yen, he’s going to be watching a lot of baseball on TV.

    Reply

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