Free agent hurler Lance Lynn has received interest from “seven or eight teams,” according to a report from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. His former team, the Cardinals, is not one of them.
Lynn, of course, declined a qualifying offer from St. Louis at the start the offseason. It seems the club is now content to allow him to leave, knowing that it’ll receive a draft choice after the Competitive Balance Round B selections so long as Lynn signs before this year’s draft.
Clearly, Lynn is worthy of punting some draft compensation. But while the CBA’s new qualifying offer rules have generally put that matter on the back burner, parting with draft value is still a factor in any free agent case. (MLBTR has run down what draft picks each team would need to sacrifice to sign a qualified free agent such as Lynn.)
As we’ve noted of late, Lynn has had a quiet offseason but remains an easy-to-visualize fit with quite a few organizations. Among the teams showing some level of interest, per Goold, are the Brewers and Cubs — two teams that are plenty familiar with Lynn from his lengthy stint with the Cardinals. The article also rounds up reported interest from other quarters, mentioning the Orioles, Twins, Nationals, and Mets as plausible suitors. Indeed, a run through MLBTR’s log of posts involving Lynn shows no shortage of possibilities.
Lynn himself discussed the situation with Goold, though he declined to get into specifics on teams. You’ll want to read the entire piece, as it’s loaded with interesting information and discussion, but generally Lynn suggests he feels comfortable preparing as normal despite his lack of a contract. “I haven’t missed anything,” he said. “There’s nothing really to worry about — at this moment.”
Goold also examines Lynn’s value against prior open-market players, suggesting the Tigers’ signing of Jordan Zimmermann — five years and $110MM, with strong no-trade protection — as a comp. While there’s certainly an argument to be made for that kind of analogy given Lynn’s bottom-line results, the view of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes — as explained first in the MLBTR Top 50 Free Agents list and expanded upon in his free agent profile of Lynn — is that the veteran righty isn’t quite in that stratosphere, due in large part to concerns with the peripherals. MLBTR has pegged Lynn for a four-year deal in the $14MM or $15MM annual range, citing a variety of teams as plausible fits on paper.
In large part, the overall market picture remains much the same as it was when Dierkes set out to evaluate things before the action got underway. Just how Lynn’s situation will shake out, though, is even more difficult to predict now than it was then. The overall tenor of Lynn’s comments, and Goold’s reporting, suggests that this free agent case is not particularly close to resolution.
Lynn won’t sniff 5yr/110M
Wrong
Lynn should be lucky to get 4/72m. No way he gets anything north of $100m.
*would
I think this is about right marinersblue96!
given the pace of the market and the loss of a draft pick, i wonder if he would even get $50M,
Are you talking about yourself? Zero chance he exceeds 100 million. Come back and admit you’re an idiot once he signs.
No not wrong. He is right. No chance for $100m contract for Lynn. And a no trade clause too! Haha no way
he may not even get a sniff at 2 years
These agents are hilarious with the Jordan Zimmerman comps. That was one of the worst train wreck contracts we’ve seen. I expect a sub $20M AAV
He’ll probably get 4/60 to 4/72 if he gets a 4 year deal
2-yrs $12 million!!
You can go away now.
Bad relievers have gotten that much even this off-season. Now your just being silly.
I know its like how did that Zimmerman contract work out? How is that a comp
I would not want my agent using a bad contract signing as a comparison. Sign my comparable client to this over pay! Detroit made a mistake and you should, too!
I think it’s very telling that guys like Lynn and Arrieta are not being courted by their former teams as they seem to be interested in other FAs. No one knows Lynn better than the Cards, same with Arrieta and Cubs.
They also want that draft pick tied to him signing elsewhere
Moot point if they lose a pick to replace their own FA pitcher though
True, except Darvish. Cubs for example could sign Darvish, lose Arrieta to another team and come up the draft pick.
Cards are also a unique team that has a ton of SP’s in the upper minors. They’re clearly a cost effective option. They just made some offensive moves, probably want to let the rotation play out a little bit before they would commit that kind of money to someone.
Having 2-3 unproven rookies in your rotation and a questionable bull pen is a pretty risky plan.
Clayton Kershaw was an unproven rookie once. I seem to recall that working out. This isn’t to say that any of the Cardinals young starters will reach that level, but it seems foolish to not give them an opportunity because they haven’t done it yet (when you don’t give them an opportunity) so that you can resign a middle of the rotation guy.
It’s baffling to me how people look at a guy like lance lynn as not replaceable. He is exactly the type of guy your team should be able to move on from without paying a premium for him. He’s yes durable and that certainly has value and eats innings but he’s average in everything else. Good teams don’t overpay for that guy, good teams let that guy walk collect the pick and give prospects in their system the chance to be Lynn.
Kershaw also didn’t put up particularly great numbers his rookie year.
So that’s still not the reason to not try the rookie pitchers!
Guess the Cards really don’t want him back, which I don’t understand as their starting pitching is younger and some are unproven at the MLB level. He is an innings eater and would provide them with a stable presence for the youngsters.
Cards have 7 guys they want to see have a chance in rotation before Lynn. With 2-3 expected to be ready by end of year. Liked lynn when he was here but it doesn’t make sense given Cards depth. Martinez, Wacha, Weaver, Mikolas, Wainwright, Flaherty, Reyes, all figure to be above Lynn in depth chart and given chance first. Are there question marks? Yes absolutely. But cards usually like to see there prospects mature and given a chance. Especially pitchers. Then hicks, Hudson and possibly Gomber are expected to be ready for show by end of year. Then there’s Gant in case of spot starts are needed somewhere. That’s 11 SP that cards would rather see before Lynn.
I’m sorry, but you’re living in a little bit of a fantasy land. Lynn would settle in right behind Martinez and maybe Wacha. Wainwright looked old last year, and the rest of the crew is largely unproven.
And yet he sits here unsigned… The guy was exactly right in his explanation from the perspective that counts most, the organizations and though you or I don’t have to like it, it is what it is and maybe you should move on as long as the Girzaliak regime is in place!
Like I have for example….
This statement is what I was commenting on. I’m not saying the cardinals should or shouldn’t consider a reunion, rather pointing out that Lynn would easily be at worst a middle of the rotation arm as their roster stands now.
“That’s 11 SP that cards would rather see before Lynn”
All players are unproven when they first start out! That shouldn’t keep a team from giving them a chance!
Shoulda just kept leake. Would’ve solved the need for another starter.
Leake was terrible last year. I’d rather take my chances with Mikolas and rookies. Lynn is a durable, consistent starter and a step above Leake. It’d be nice to have Lynn in the rotation for another year or two, but I’m glad they traded Leake.
Lynn would literally be third on their depth chart. He’s not really need, but I don’t know how you’d think they’d rather those other guys
Agreed. Lynn may even be 2nd. Wacha probably has more upside but Lynn is more reliable.
Weaver is a STUD for you fantasy players!!!
You should not call a starting pitcher with two pitches(FB/CH) a Stud. Major League hitters are not fools.
The only thing that’s clear is that all this uncertainty is gonna drag into March and eventually the regular season, and the Clubhouse at that camp the MLBPA is establishing will be full for quite a while. Lynn could sign with any variety of teams this week if he wanted to, but the time worn practice of waiting for the market to be set at the top just isn’t happening.
Maybe the MLBPA should field a team in the AL this season. They might even contend for the postseason. That 400M payroll will be a b’tch though.
Lynn is worth 3-4 yr with only 9-11 million per at most
I don’t understand the logic of that. This is a 3WAR pitcher. He’s not going to win a Cy Young, but he’d be crazy to sign that type of a contract.
Maybe more like 3yr 42mil or 4yr 49mil. I don’t think he should get 50mil.
Agree strongly dbec
The original Cubs offer to Cobb (3/$42m) is about what I expected for him and Lynn to get another year…maybe 4/$56m or so in this market. The only way a team should consider $15m-$16m AAV is at 3 yrs. I think that will be one of the market corrections going forward, a bit higher AAV in exchange for less years. It’s less overall $, but it also allows for less dead money on the books during the backend of a contract. The Cespedes contracts will prove to be a good model for TOR pitchers….not total $, but structurally. For the record, Lynn and Cobb are #3’s at best, but I think the same approach would work.
I think you’re pretty close and Cobb is a good comp. I think Lynns value might be a little higher as he’s proven to be more durable, but I suspect they will land similiar deals.
Why Cespedes ? He’s not even a pitcher! Gotta be a better comp than that to use.
Why not simply taper the payouts on a long term contract so as a player gets older, they get less. Doesnt even require a change in overall value.
Decent pitcher that throws 100 pitches to get through 5 innings. He has a snarly attitude that doesn’t sit well with the Cardinals brass but good luck to him!
Nothing in this post is even remotely accurate.
I agree! Lynn was well liked oh the clubhouse !
Any guy who can take a line drive off the head and continue to pitch, deserves a few extra million.
Lynn is like watching Isinghausen close out a game; Cards up by 3, izzy in. Bases loaded, no outs. somehow still pulls a rabbit from his hat, but has you on edge every time. No imagine that with an SP. Lynn is good, but man he can make you nervous for many innings.
With that, I don’t think he wants to play with Matheny after reading his comments on Matheny throughout the season.
“Any guy who can take a line drive off the head and continue to pitch, deserves a few extra million.”
^^^ Love this. LOL
I hear he is one of those who doesn’t attend Chapel…a dislike for Matheny and a dividing factor in the Cards clubhouse.
If guys are chapped because Lynn’s religious beliefs differ from their own he’s better off in a different clubhouse.
I don’t get why the Mariners are not in either him or Cobb.
Budget?
I wonder what kind of sniffs Cobb will get. If they are stronger sniffs than Lance’s sniffs.
He gets 2/$30MM and he’s going to be happy about it.
Name one player that does like Matheny?
I am not sure Carpenter (his favorite) really even likes him.
But they are talking about using Carp this year as a utility guy. Can’t wait to see how that plays out!
Of all the free agents on the market, the Phillies should DEFINITELY sign this guy. They have tons of money to spend. They lack quality starting pitching on the major league level and the upper minors. He’d be a solid #2 starter behind Aaron Nola, and take a lot of pressure off of the kids on their staff. It would indicate to their fans that they are serious about making a wild card run. But instead of legitimately improving their team, Sheldon Cooper and Co. prefer dumpster diving.
But…but…collusion!! FAs aren’t getting offers because the teams are colliding against signing them!
He will get 3 years for 65 from the twins
And the twins will sign arrietta for 3 years at 85 mil
He had a fielding independent ERA last year near 5. Before the injury he operated at league average on opponent BABIP. Last year just .248. His K, BB and HR rates were the worst of his career. He looks a lot like Zimmermann did when Detroit signed him. Decent overall numbers, especially inside their big home ballparks. Red flags everywhere when you go deeper into the numbers. He’ll be 31 in May. Wouldn’t touch him with a ten foot pole on a multi-year deal.
I have a feeling that the Cardinals are still planning on making a signing or trade for a starter.
Does Lance Lynn not seem like a guy who the Twins will be in on. They seem from the outside that their rotation makes you wonder just how the hell they made the playoffs. Twins should be offering these pitchers higher AAV for this year with opt outs after this year. Gives the twins an advantage because they’re serious players giving that the big spenders are handcuffed with the Lux tax. They hopefully get a productive player in their primes. They have lots of cash to spend this year. For the player like Lynn, you get a higher AAV in a year where salaries are down, you get an opt out in case Minnesota isn’t your ideal place.
Not sure why a lot of people hate opts outs but they’re actually better for teams, of your guy is opting out that means you got a productive season out of a guy in his prime and no longer have the longterm risk.
The reality of the situation is for the twins, they must develop some homegrown starters because signing free agent starters for long term mobey isn’t a wise investment and one that fails more often then not
Opt outs never favor the team, only a player!
If the player is opting out, the team got excess value. They won.
I liked Lynn and hate to see him go, but I understand why the Cards must part ways with him. I wish him well.
I don’t see the Brewers making him an offer since they don’t have a good track record with former Cardinals pitchers. But, maybe third time is the charm!
If this question has been answered elsewhere, apologies, but what happens to the QO if the player doesn’t sign anywhere? Or if the player signs after opening day?
Lance Lynn has been a good horse in the rotation. He numbers are good but not elite. And he’s 31 this May and there are a ton of innings on that arm.
I understand why he is waiting. It’s his time to get paid. Too bad, bad timing for him that the teams are buckling down. The only way I sign this guy is if the contract is fully insurable. No insurance, no signing. #scouteyes
Lance Lynn has the highest winning percentage any pitcher teammate through his career with the Cardinals. An innings eater. A reliable starter to take the ball every 5th day, even after Tommy John Surgery. The only reason the Cardinals won’t rehire Lynn is because he has the President of baseball Operations, John Mozeliak’s number, and has exposed Mozeliak’s lies and cover ups to the press. Evidently
He was right On target!!! He
Must have struck a nerve, because even without responding verbally, Mozeliak is responding to Lynn’s acquisitions by saying the Cardinals want no part of their past highest winning percentage pitcher they’ve hand over several years of service with the Cardinals.
In response to brucewayne:
I chose the Cespedes contract bc it was structured to be higher AAV (3/$75m) with an opt-out, which seem to be catching on with pitchers. I don’t mean for it to be dollar for dollar, but it exemplifies the tradeoff of less years for a Bump in AAV. Neither Lynn nor Cobb are top tier, so going 4+ is more likely to be an issue.