The Phillies have officially inked right-hander Jake Arrieta, as Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia first reported on Twitter. It’ll be a three-year, $75MM contract for the Scott Boras client, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
Arrieta will earn $30MM in 2018, $25MM in 2019 and $20MM in 2020, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports (links to Twitter). Arrieta can choose to opt out of the deal after the second season, though interestingly, the contract also allows the Phillies to “void” the opt-out by picking up a two-year option that would extend the contract through the 2021-22 seasons.
Should the Phils override the opt-out, they would pay Arrieta a base salary of $20MM in each of the two additional years. But those option-year salaries aren’t fixed. Games-started escalators (presumably, based upon 2019 tallies) can boost the values by as much as $5MM, with the escalators beginning at 25 starts and maxing out if and when Arrieta takes the ball for a 31st time. He can escalate those salaries further by finishing in the top-five of the N.L. Cy Young voting in either 2018 or 2019; the annual rate on the potential extra years goes up by $5MM with a top-three finish or by $3MM if Arrieta finishes fourth or fifth. The contract also includes a $1MM assignment bonus provision.
Up until Sunday, the 32-year-old Arrieta ranked as the best free agent remaining in what has been a famously slow-moving market since it opened in November. Back then, MLBTR forecast a four-year, $100MM pact for Arrieta, who’s coming off a four-plus-year run with the Cubs in which he was one of baseball’s best pitchers.
During his stretch in Chicago from 2013-17, the former Orioles castoff won a Cy Young (2015) and a World Series (2016), and he pitched to a 2.73 ERA/3.16 FIP with 8.89 K/9, 2.73 BB/9 and a 50.6 percent groundball rate over 803 innings. Arrieta fell off somewhat last year, however, with a 3.53 ERA/4.16 FIP over 168 1/3 frames. While Arrieta again offered strong strikeout and walk numbers (8.71 K/9, 2.94 BB/9), his grounder (45.1 percent) and swinging-strike rates (8.7; down from 10 percent as a Cub) each trended in the wrong direction. He also experienced a drop in velocity, going from upward of 94 mph with his fastball in each of the previous five seasons to 92.6.
With last year’s decline in mind, it’s less surprising that free agency didn’t go as planned for Arrieta. It’s also not surprising that the Phillies were willing to reel him in at a discounted rate. Phillies president Andy MacPhail and general manager Matt Klentak emphasized throughout the offseason that they weren’t interested in signing anyone to an overly long deal, but they did suggest they’d be willing to pay extra for shorter-term pacts. Arrieta is now the fourth noteworthy free agent to whom they’ve guaranteed three or fewer years since December.
Previously, the Phillies landed first baseman Carlos Santana (three years, $60MM) and the relief duo of Tommy Hunter (two years, $18MM) and Pat Neshek (two years, $16.25MM). Despite those signings, the big-market Phillies entered Sunday with plenty of spending room, and they still figure to fall short of last year’s $100MM Opening Day payroll even in the wake of their expensive Arrieta agreement.
All of those additions certainly aren’t guaranteed to lead to immediate contention for the Phillies, who registered their sixth straight non-playoff season and their fifth consecutive sub-.500 year in 2017. But the Arrieta pickup could be particularly helpful to a team whose projected rotation otherwise wouldn’t have featured any proven options beyond Aaron Nola. He and Arrieta should form a quality one-two punch and perhaps help the Phillies return to contention in 2018 as part of a National League that features three clear favorites – Arrieta’s previous team, the Cubs, as well as the Dodgers and Nationals. Washington, which was a speculative landing spot for Arrieta, will now have to deal with him as an opponent in its division, though the Nationals are still the obvious NL East front-runners over the Mets, Phillies, Braves and Marlins.
Despite their recent run of irrelevance, the Phillies clearly regard themselves as a team on the upswing, as their free agent splashes indicate. After losing their second-highest draft pick in 2018 and $500K in international bonus pool to sign Santana, who rejected the Indians’ qualifying offer, they’ll surrender their third-highest selection (No. 79) and another $500K for Arrieta. The Cubs, who qualified Arrieta in November, will collect a compensatory pick after the second round. They seem well equipped to move on without Arrieta, having added this offseason’s top free agent starter, Yu Darvish (six years, $126MM), and Tyler Chatwood to a rotation that will also feature Jose Quintana, Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester.
Boras hoped to outdo Darvish’s pact with Arrieta, given that the latter has the better track record of production, but he has instead seen another of his clients collect a lower-than-expected payday. To Boras’ credit, a pair of his players – first baseman Eric Hosmer ($144MM) and slugger J.D. Martinez ($110MM) – did receive two of this free agent class’s three richest guarantees. On the other hand, before Arrieta reached an agreement, Carlos Gonzalez ($8MM), Mike Moustakas ($6.5MM) and Carlos Gomez ($4MM) each signed for relatively underwhelming amounts. Now, reliever Greg Holland is the last high-end Boras client remaining on a shrinking market as Opening Day draws closer.
Nightengale and Jon Heyman of FanRag first reported that the Phillies and Arrieta were headed toward a deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Hope we didnt overpay
Why, they have tons of money. He will draw fans.
Really? Every 6th day, and only home games, he may draw a few extra hundreds in to watch a team with no chance of being a contender.
are you familiar with television contract revenue?
More people will come if the team is more competitive…even if he’s not pitching he makes the team more exciting to watch
A guy on the bench for 4 straight full games and then hopes to go 2/3 of the next game will draw many fans in every night? LOL!
Yes, but please share with us how much they were looking at before signing him as compared to after signing him.
Why can’t they contend. They could be the brewers of last year and shock everyone. And they have all around better players and pitching than Milwaukee.
Bumgarner sells out every game he plays in. Ask the giants if he’s worth it. Same with the Dodgers and Kershaw. For a team that has sucked for years, yes, fans will come out to see a star pitch for their team. Stop pretending youre smart.
Chis Sale was a draw for the White Sox even when they were terrible and had terrible attendance when he wasn’t pitching.
Also, Bumgarner is a 3x Champion with a HUGE hand in all three titles. So yea. He’s worth it in more ways than one.
uh… what? Brewers’ lineup is way better.. its not even close.
No … they don’t
And the Brewers rotation is way way bette…wait…no …the rotation is actually much much worse than philly.
Sounds great genius, post numbers when he starts against his offdays. Also, Bumgarner delivers at the plate as much as on the mound and Keyshawn is on a whole other level than Arrieta.
No they don’t!
TV revenue is already locked in on a huge deal for years to come. Doesn’t matter whether or not more people watch, the Phillies get the same money regardless.
I don’t think I’d have touched Arrieta, with the trajectory he seems to be on, but if anyone should have, the Phillies seem to make the most sense and they limited their risk to three years.
First opt out deal where the team has the ability to capture the upside if a guy exceeds expectations, which is pretty creative and balances the risk nicely. Seems like a smart deal. If they’re trying to push their timetable up to make a run at the wildcard this year, they ought to through in an extra $12M/yr or so to grab Cobb on a Lynn-type deal.
If he wins ballgames then yes it’s likely that more fans will watch the next game as well regardless of who is sitting on the bench.
Betting they did
I think you did overpay.
Haha exactly. As if the people in the comment section are also in the front office. But I think it’s a part of fandom to sometimes say we or us. Either way it’s funny to read.
Fans are part of it. They by tickets, they buy memorabilia. They support the team. Sure they don’t sign the checks or make the decisions, but we is an acceptable term.
Thank you! People that bash people for using “we” are so obnoxious
If you aren’t loyal enough to your team that you feel they are apart of your city, and life then I feel sorry for you, but don’t blame those who have it good.
Those are fair weather fans
What if he sells peanuts in the stands? That would mean “we” as in he’s part of the organization…
if you get a paycheck from the organization, you’re good.
Without fans there will not be any teams, we pay the bill.
Yes they are! As bad as the grammar police !
well if someone supports the team by watching it on television and going to the ballpark, buying overpriced hotdogs/food and beverages. Then yes, it’s “we”
I love it how you said hotdogs/food, as though hotdogs aren’t really food lol
Fans contribute to a major part of revenue which teams decide to base their spending off of. So yes he can say “we”
Fans generate 100% of all MLB revenue.
You need to be a really special kind of stupid not to implicitly understand that. The owners contribution is absolute zero. No one pays anything voluntarily to the owners, they steal every dollar they bank.
Yep. Armed guards stand watch to shoot anyone who steps out of line at the ticket windows.
Point well made. A lot of people claim otherwise due to cable and merchandise revenue. Again, who pays the bill for those? Fans. If fans stopped buying tickets, cable packages, merchandise, and concessions I seriously doubt MLB would continue business as usual.
CaseysPartner you have yo be a really kind of special if you think Harper and Machado are signing with the Phillies. All your comments are hilarious troll jobs. Espically the conspiracy theorys about Ohtani
Advertising accounts for most of the revenue by subsidizing the huge TV contracts !
Not that I’m a big CaseysPartner fan, but he didn’t even bring up the things you just mentioned. Wouldn’t that, by definition, make YOU the troll here?
3 years 75 Million is absolutely doable with the amount of money this team has.
Totally. Exactly the contract length that makes sense, and Jake’s great-great-grandchildren are not going to have to worry about money if he’s smart with it.
Yeah it just seems like a crazy overpay. Almost like when a bad NBA team has to spend money to reach the salary floor minimum and they overpay for a rotation player or marginal star (not saying Arietta is marginal). Someone like the Mephis Grizzlies $150 mil deal for Mike Conley who never ever made an NBA all-star team.
Who was their competition? Or is it likely Arietta had a more reasonable offer like $20 mil annually for 3-4 years and the Phillies felt they had to significantly overpay to get him to go to a team towards the end of their rebuild?
How is it an overpay? 75 million guarantee for a guy who accomplished as much as Arrieta is pretty light. It might not make a whole lot of sense for their contention window considering he can opt out after next season but the dollars aren’t bad.
in the last two years he’s not been a top 15 pitcher (using WAR as a simple summarization of his talent) yet he’ll get paid like a top 5 pitcher.
in the last two years he’s not been a top 15 pitcher (using WAR as a simple summarization of his talent) yet he’ll get paid like a top 5 pitcher in a very depressed market. seems like the teams would have the leverage over Arietta, assuming they’re weren’t any brisk bidding war goinh on.
It’s not about what he accomplished, it’s about what he’s going to do in the future…
Dumbest comment possible!
2nd dumbest comment possible.
Brown Trout Fisherman
3rd dumbest possible
And you get votes for lack of originality, follower.
Don’t worry about overpaying, they have plenty of cash to fish out. And for all you braves fans: Phillies are going to finish second this year and will still have more money than you to spend next year. Also, sorry but Nola and Arrieta are much better than Tehran and Folty. And Sixto is better than any of your golden arms in the minors.
who says the Braves will be better than the Phils? I’m a Braves fan and agree with you. But no need to be cocky about it when no one even said such a thing on this thread…
why so angry? I don’t see any Braves fans on here saying they’re better. I actually agree with you, but it seems like you’re arguing with no one.
Jamey Colin Hodgin
nola is mediocre and arrietta is not the pitcher he once was, hence the reason no one but the phillies wanted him. the phillies farm system is ok at best, I live a mile from coca cola park and see them often. ronald acuna is probably a better player as a rookie than any player on the phillies team right now.
I’m Jake Arrieta’s biggest critic here and believe he’s one of the most likely decline candidates due his sheer overwhelming decline, past 3 years:
Jake Arrieta (Last 3 years)
229 IP –> 197.1 –> 168.1
1.77 ERA –> 3.10 –> 3.53
2.35 FIP –> 3.52 –> 4.16
0.39 HR/9 –> 0.73 –> 1.23
7.3 WAR –> 3.8 –> 2.4
0.86 WHIP –>1.08 –> 1.22
.184 AVG –> .194 –> .234
Average Velocity, Last 3 years
(Regular and Post season)
Sinker ——> 95.21 MPH -—> 94.44 —-> 92.49
Slider ——> 90.66 MPH -—> 89.65 —> 88.33
Curve ——> 81.22 MPH ——> 81.12 —-> 79.25
Fourseam-> 94.93 MPH —> 94.32 —> 92.68
Change -—> 89.61 MPH —-> 89.04 —> 87.60
2015 Pitch data: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/tabs.php?player=453562&p_hand=-1&ppos=-1&cn=200&compType=none&risp=0&1b=0&2b=0&3b=0&rType=perc&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1&time=month&minmax=ci&var=traj&s_type=2&gFilt=allmlb&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=01/01/2016
2016 Pitch data: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/tabs.php?player=453562&p_hand=-1&ppos=-1&cn=200&compType=none&risp=0&1b=0&2b=0&3b=0&rType=perc&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1&time=month&minmax=ci&var=traj&s_type=2&gFilt=allmlb&startDate=01/01/2016&endDate=01/01/2017
2017 Pitch data: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/tabs.php?player=453562&p_hand=-1&ppos=-1&cn=200&compType=none&risp=0&1b=0&2b=0&3b=0&rType=perc&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1&time=month&minmax=ci&var=traj&s_type=2&gFilt=allmlb&startDate=01/01/2017&endDate=01/01/2018
But they didn’t overpay. 3 years $75M is nothing, This contract had potential to be much worse.
Blah blah blah
Excellent write-up. Thanks much.
They’re betting on 8 wins above replacement the next 3 years.
The definition of paying for past performance
What a ridiculous overpay by the phils. The guy has been sitting on the market for 4 months. No reason to give him that kind of money. Especially after seeing what Lynn got.
Comping Lynn to Arrieta is nonsense. They only paid $37 million more to get Arrieta instead of tyler chatwood.
I don’t think Jake’s contact is an overpay, but Chatwood only got $38M. Are you suggesting that Arrieta is twice as valuable as Chatwood?
That wouldn’t be all that much of a stretch. Arrieta has been an ace in the postseason and the regular season meanwhile chatwood’s rolling out a career ERA around 4.3 and is coming off a year where he was around 5. He’s far from a sure thing and certainly hasn’t been half the pitcher arrieta has. So yeah, he very easily could be.
Declined a good reported Cubs offer and now he has to go to the Phillies. Jake played himself
Yeah, I’m a PHILLY guy, but I like the Cubs more and should have stayed in Chicago.
He should have stayed. Ha! Me to.
As did most FA this season. Moose could have had a 3/51 from the Royals last summer. Now he’s got a 1/6.5.
qualifying offer was $17.2M. signing that would have been far better
Qualifying offers for 2018 were $17.4 mil. Getting $25 mil A.A.V. for 3 years is not a worse deal.
Pssst… please try to keep up. He was talking about Moustakas. Reading is power
The Phillies are going to be good soon. They have a lot of good, young players and a payroll to acquire some superstars. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are in the playoffs in 2019
Harper could leave the Nats and the Phillies still would not be close to the core they have.
Harper, Machado, Hoskins and Kingery is solid.
Yeah, because Philadelphia is getting both Harper AND Machado…Dixon maybe
With Harper (40 mil) machado (35 mill) and arrieta (25) that’s 100 mill for 3 players although possible I’d place bets you don’t get both maybe just one
Yep… but it will be Dixon Machado!
Arrieta and Santana disappear in three years. That’s $45 million gone.
You know nothing.
It’s definitely feasible but the two years all 4 guys are there would likely mean they’d have to trade the two relievers they signed this year (Neshek and Chatwood) to save the 17 mil or so there as a start. Or cost cut in other ways but the long term value of having Harper and Machado locked up could be worth it.
I don’t think they’ll sign both Harper and Machado, but why would they have to trade anyone if they do sign both? Their payroll commitments are very low, and they have a very high threshold. (They were running $175M payrolls BEFORE their new TV deal.)
Why? They won’t be paying taxes on the payroll or they will only be a little over. It’s only two years and then Santana and Arrieta are gone and Mike Trout joins the party.
Wrap your head around that. Trout, Harper and Machado. That’s happening on the Phillies.
John Middleton is a billionaire and wants to get the best players he’s paid for them a few years ago and will now, don’t be too surprised.
Trout snd angels are already talking extension so doubtful as of right now
Agreed.. there’s been a couple articles over the past year with the halos and trout already planing (or at least talking about) an extension.
Phillies didn’t sign Chatwood! The Cubs did !
Plus he’s a starter
They’ll be good soon? Eh I wouldent say so.
And Harper won’t sign with the phillies lol keep dreaming.
Yea he played himself lmao
What’s the money amount??
It gets added as soon as they know… just refresh the article.
This puts them in the mix for a wildcard. Curious to see if they aggressively go after Cobb now.
I think WC is a long shot still. But I would have said the same about the Twins last year.
The key is can Eickhoff and Velasquez pitch like they did in 2016 or was 2017 what they are.
The way they played in the 2nd half was really encouraging
If those two guys come back then yes they could battle the Mets. But I also think if the Mets stay healthy they are a better team. This year anyway. 2019 is the year I think Philly fans should get much more excited.
No, the Phillies are now a better team than the Mets. From here on the Phillies get better and the Mets sink down to the bottom of the division. That’s how it’s been since the Mets came into existence.
Open up two browser windows at Baseball-Reference. Go to franchise histories for the Mets and Phillies. They always pass one another in the standings, never competing against one another. It’s a 50+ year “coincidence”.
Yeah, I’m a Phils fan but even I understand that if the Mets’ rotation stays healthy they are going to be tough to top in the division.
I think the Mets didn’t get any better. Cespedes is still a problem guy. Vargas had 7 era after all star break. Matz and Harvey appear to be busts. Thor and DeGrom are studs, but health for hard throwers is very concerning. Astrubal and Reyes are pathetic. A-Gon stinks. Conforto is crippled. Ahmed Rosario get on base.(cant walk your way off the island). Dom Smith seems like a good guy but needs seasoning/experience, as does Nimmo. And I’m not buying Lagares. Still a 70 win team
Phillies fans are easily the dumbest fan base in the game. They booed Mike Schmidt for the first 90% of his career until one March both Sports Illustrated and The Sporting News put Schmidt on the cover as a no doubt first ballot HOF selection. Until that moment the dumbest fan base in MLB thought Schmidt stunk., no exaggeration.
Chase Utley __ 65.4
Jimmy Rollins _46
Ryan Howard _ 14.9 (!)
Mike Schmidt: 106.5
I’m no Mets fan, but your stated formula as a 70-win team seems based on opinion and whimsy. They’ll pitch and hit enough to win 80 games even with injuries.
It’s difficult to say the Mets are better. They have more stability/projection in the starting rotation, but nowhere else.
The Phillies have better players/hitters at nearly every position…they’re better at 1B, 2B (even before Kingery is promoted), CF, & C.
In the outfield I’d take Hoskins over Cespedes (he can be fantastic, but also disappears for stretches…especially after getting paid). I wouldn’t be surprised if Altherr/Williams matches Bruce’s production in RF.
SS is a toss-up. Rosario is the better prospect, but neither is proven at MLB level. The only clear position player where the Mets are better is 3B. Frasier hits for a terrible average and strikes out way too much, but he gets on base, has power, and plays good defense.
This could be a very interesting year now. I actually hope the Mets stay healthy and play well…one more team to challenge the Nationals and keep their win total down.
Yes Casey, I’ve read you saying that a dozen times already. But the Phills have to get better first. Better on paper doesn’t count.
Only games Casey watched with Schmidt is on youtube.
Ya know you are a Mets fan, Right?
Go complain to your 5 star rotation. You are counting the Mets fans that booed him when they saw he was amazing
I saw Schmidt’s career. I saw him hit three HR at the Vet against the Giants. The second hit the concrete rim at the super box level in LF and bounced back onto the field. The ball was still rising when it hit the concrete. The next time I saw a ball hit like that was Stanton’s HR off Moyer in Miami that broke the speaker in LF.
That’s what Schmidt was, Giancarlo Stanton winning ten Gold Gloves at 3B and never being injured.
Is there a point in you post, or are you just being what Calvin’s babysitter called him?
Was that in 1979? I was a little kid listening to that game on the radio while “down the shore”. Good memories.
“Was that in 1979?”
My memory has limits. Baseball-Reference would have the answer though.
Schmidt hit 4 HR’s in a game in 1976
Plus he had several 3 homer games, but I don’t remember the dates !
I’d say they have a fair shot especially if they can stay above the Mets. Competition is probably between Brewers, Cards, Mets, Rockies and Diamondbacks. 33% chance is decent.
And the NL West is a much tougher division top to bottom.
The Phils could feast on the Mets and Marlins while AZ and Colorado play each other.
I’m a Phils fan and glad they got Arrieta, but imo this doesn’t put them in the mix for a WC. After Nola and Arrieta the starting pitching is atrocious.
Awesome. This will make them competitive now.
Welp that leaves Alex Cobb and the Brewers/Nats/Orioles still playing the starting pitcher market. Obv. I want the Brewers to sign him (at good value of course) but my money is on the Nats at this point.
The Nats think they’re good enough to get by without paying for a 5 starter for half a season. They may be. Might make more sense for them to use a top prospect at the deadline and get an ace to put them over the top. They need to go all in. Cobb doesn’t really move the needle in the playoffs. He probably wouldn’t crack their postseason rotation.
That’s one ugly, goofy looking beard.
elscorcho the marlin
Ok. That’s weird. Can you grow a beard? Seems like a strange personal attack.
elscorcho the marlin
elscorcho = inbreed
His beard is worth $75 million, yours??
Work of art maybe? Ugly art goes for that much.
No his beard is not worth 75 million. That is an outrageous claim.
haha. thank God Brewers didn’t make the mistake in signing him. hopefully they stay away from Cobb. none of these FA pitchers are worth the contracts they were trying to get.
Except Gallardo and Chacin, those 2 are really good.
He’s implying Cobb’s performance relative to his contract would not be worth it for the brewers. Don’t be obtuse.
Cobb and Arrieta would’ve been the best pitcher in the Brewers though. At some point they’ll need to pony up and pay for a starter. Relying on guys like Chacin and Miley is hardly a good plan when they could’ve got one of the good pitchers for much less than anticipated.
even with Nelsen out, Anderson and Davies were both very solid pitchers and are only getting better. Davies is only what 24-25. arrieta is clearly on a career decline so glad they stayed away from him. with Cobb I have zero faith on his long term health as he hasn’t shown he can be. not worth the money for someone like him.
Don’t get me wrong, I like the Brewers and hope they can challenge the Cubs this year for the Central crown. But Anderson is a pretty good regression candidate and Davies seems like more of a middle of the rotation pitcher. It’s not that hard to picture Arrieta turning it around. Even with his “bad year” last year, it was still pretty close to all star worthy.
I see a lot of comments about a possible, if not likely regression from Anderson this year. Not going to argue necessarily, but some rebuttal to that suggestion, is that he made significant changes last off-season to improve his fastball specifically, added some weight to help his stamina, and general approach. So it’s also possible he’s simply a late bloomer/now has the pitching coach who helped get more out of him.
As for Davies, he doesn’t have the velocity, but his control is usually really good, and he mixes pitches well. #3 starter is reasonable..he’s just kinda stuck as the 2 until (hopefully) Nelson returns.
also not hard to see arrietta get worse or just not get better. he’s not young so his velocity will just go down. funny how he had two good years and he’s automatically a perennial cy young candidate but Anderson clearly has a breakout year from positive changes and he’s automatically primed to regress.
Here’s the thing. The Brewers wanna get to the next level. Arrieta had a great second half last season and showed signs of adjusting his game to his declining peripherals. He has also been terrific in the playoffs for three straight seasons. To a young staff like the Brewers, having a seasoned veteran like him, with a proven record on the big stage, is a valuable commodity.
2 things: salary/length of deal demand made Mil uncomfortable. Plus the cubs would get a draft pick from the brewers. The interest was there, I believe, but not at his asking price.
that may be true but a guy coming up on 33 and being paying him $25 million when he’s 35/36. he’s nowhere near Kershaw who is probably the only pitcher I’d be ok paying something like that.
What do you mean two good seasons? He just had 4 consecutive seasons in a row in Chicago that were good.
he had a crazy good year once when he had sub 2.00 era. year before was upper 2s for era so I will give those as two very good years. last two his stats got worse each year which seems like regression or just getting older but either way there really isn’t anything that shows he’s still that sub 2.00 era guy whatsoever. we wasn’t great the last two years and he had the worlds greatest offense with him (sarcasm there). giving a guy who’s way on the wrong side of thirty that kind of money is just not smart especially for a small market team like the Brewers. He would easily be another Jeff suppan where we pay a bunch and get crap for results.
3/75 isnt an overpay imo, but it’s hard for the Brewers to make that offer when they can probably stretch payroll to $130mil under ideal financial conditions and no further
Make it a 49.9999999 million dollar contract! Phillies are now relevant. Scotty Jetpax and Hoskins gonna be the dynamic duo.
Wow. I ignored all the Arrieta-to-Philadelphia rumors this offseason. Didn’t think it would actually happen.
That’s something you don’t see everyday. Someone with the guts to admit they were wrong online.
I know it’s not a big deal or anything, but it says a lot of good things about your character.
I was wrong too. I said the Marlins would sign him to a 7 year deal.
Just kidding, I was right with Phills
I was wrong too, I thought 3 sheets of toilet paper was enough. Courtesy wipe needed.
I sorta believed it was possible, only because Philly seemed to be the one team willing to fork over big(ish) money..for him.
Won’t say I expected it, but not completely surprised either.
Good get for the Phil’s if it’s for 3 or less years. His market tanked so it was the perfect time to strike. Cobb will sign within the next 24 hours I assume
Not if they didn’t over pay. But yes, he is on the down turn. Especially calling Philly home. His era will go up a point easily.
The Phillies are going to be pretty even with the Mets the whole year now for second place in the East
Wait, because of Jake Arrieta? The guy who is on a fast decline and now playing in a hitters ballpark? O k a y.
No, because the Phillies are good
As a diehard phillies fan i hope this either fake news or not a big salary and/or not a lot of guaranteed money
MC Tim C
Hearing 3/80 with an additional 10 or so that can be earned in incentives.
Nightingale says 3-year
It’s a 3 year deal
3 years and anything less than $75 million is a win for the Phillies
Extra pick for the cubs. Woohoo
Yay! But I somewhat prefer Arrieta on a 3yr $75 million contract over Darvish on a 6 year $124 million contract.
Bet it’s 3 @ 63
Good guess, especially in this market. There may be some performance incentives, too.
Yeah I have him at 21 a year. I agree insentives are in there could bring it to 70
Guess I missed that one, huh?
I think closer to 3/80
3/80 be a major over Pay.
It might be if the Phillies had a high payroll. Their payroll is low that 3/40 and 3/80 aren’t any different. Last year they paid Hellickson, Kendrick, Saunders, and Buchholz $50 million.
Its better than sitting on the sideline for another year
Phillies have nice uniforms. Could be a lot worse. Lol
Wildcard hear we come
i hate my father
3 year deal my guess 75 million
Had he signed in December, maybe. Not now.
He was dead on. Looks like you were wrong.
But…. but….. but….. Aces get seven……
Yup 3 year deal as expected. To think people earlier this off season called me crazy saying that there is no way he would get any less than 5 lmaoooo
Ummmm.. ya just so you know, your still crazy bro.
Just think the Cubs offered him 4 years 110. That’s 27.5.
Let’s see how much he loses over stupidity. Cubs tried.
Lol the Phillies
Arrieta’s mechanics, the way his front foot lands too far toward third base, make me nervous on a three-year deal.
Sad to see him go but glad he’s not in the Central
exactly my feelings
Lolololololol! Phillies LOL!
i hate my father
Aces get 3
Hate this. Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
Everyone of these Boras clients should fire him, he cost them millions
MC Tim C
Maybe Cobb will finally come down to Earth with his expectations. He’s not that good and he’s super injury prone. He can be a good pitcher, but he needs to come to terms with reality.
brewers should sign alex cobb to a 3 year 36 million deal
At this point I imagine it’d be more like 3-27 or 2-20
Also Cubs are big winner here. No Brewers No Cardinals No Dodgers No Nationals and they get a pick from Phillies it’s a win win win for Cubs
3 years and 75 million overpaid
Intentionally so to keep the no. of years down
Man, 3 year 75 million… wow
I would’ve given him 4/100 still
I love this deal. I’d much, much rather pay more annually rather than add more years to bring the price down. I could realistically can see him being a top of the rotation pitcher for a couple more years. Anything longer than three years would’ve terrified me though.
They still have I ton of money for next year
will regret this deal after 1 year jake Arrieta is on the decline
His “decline” is still better than Lynn or Cobb have ever been.
Lynn and Cobb both had higher wars than Arrieta last season.
Still a little steep this late in the FA cycle with reportedly no real competition. Definitely improves the Phills, but I see them at least a year away from competing for any sort of playoff spot. If Jake falls off the cliff in year two or thee I guess they can afford it, no?
Ruben Amaro back pulling the strings in Philadelphia is my guess.
So he loses 35 mil n a year. Well now he can do Gieco commercials instead of State Farm.
I’m guessing he settled and finally “took” the Phillies money. Welcome to irrelevance for the next 3 years. It was his one chance for money so I understand why he took it. I don’t think he’ll sniff the postseason anymore.
Low risk move for a team that has the money. He will be a solid #3 for three years barring injury. I’m interested to see what he gets next time through FA.
OMG! What’s wrong with you people?! “Hope we didn’t overpay?” Seriously?! Who cares how much they paid? They just got an all-star caliber player at a position where they really needed one! You act as if it’s YOUR money or that it will stop them from pursuing top talent next year! It’s not…and it won’t. In fact, it will only help lure big names to Philly! It shows they are ready to win now! It’s a GOOD thing, Philly fans! Get excited!
He WAS an all star caliber player. He’s now an expensive #3 that the Cubs, who knew him well, didn’t want anymore. That’s all you need to know.
But who cares about their payroll? Adding Arrieta doesn’t hurt them in any way at all.
On the Cubs, I’d slot him in after Chatwood
The Cubs didn’t turn Arrieta down. Arrieta turned the Cubs down. He basically refused their charity and is losing money as a result.
Technically it’s the fans money. Without our support there is no team
Jesus 25 mill per year ? No wonder he settled for 3 years lol
Good move by the Phillies, this gives them a outside shot at the playoffs.
Jake just threw his first pitch of the spring….blew his elbow out…TJ!
Boras did well. I didnt think he would get over 3/45. Reduced velocity and Cubs disinterest red flags
The Cubs were hardly “disinterested” in re-signing Jake Arrieta. They just didn’t want to do it at his earlier asking price in free agency or even with his prior demands for an extension. If they were going to approach those numbers they decided they would rather invest in Yu Darvish which they ultimately did at a somewhat reduced price. The Cubs also didn’t have to forfeit a compensatory draft pick in signing Darvish and they will now gain one with Arrieta signing with the Phillies.
Not happening. They’re gonna go to quality franchises.
Are the Phillies counting on the Nats and Mets tripping up next year or are they just spending money to appease the fanbase?
Last year they gave Hellickson, Buchholz, Saunders, and Kendrick $50 million to appease the fan base. Three of them stunk and the 4th was barely healthy. This year they’re actually spending the money on players who’ll help them. Even with Arrieta their current roster projects to payrolls under $100 million the next three years. Even if Arrieta doesn’t pitch they won’t regret the move. They still have dumptrucks of money left.
Harper and Machado are on the Phillies next year.
Harper and Machado? Brian Harper and Dixon Machado maybe…
Who’s a funny moose
Maybe Harper, probably not Machado
They both sign with the team that blows away the competition with $$$.
There is no other consideration.
The Phillies FO was saying back in November that they were going to be big spenders this offseason. Now they have 2 of the top 6 biggest deals, they weren’t kidding around. They did what they said they were going to do – so why are you questioning it?
For the Cubs sake it’s better that Jake Arrieta signed with the Phillies than the Nationals or Brewers, at least for the 2018 season.
Short money, great move for Philadelphia.
Were is the know it all Erst Voast Ryan who swore Philly would never sign JA 4 weeks ago. When I said the market is restricted. The Ohils are the only ones who will and can pay that money competing or not. Don’t he feel cheesy n stupid now. Mr baseball who knows it all. Psssf
West Coast Ryan or Erst Voast Ryan?
are you really concerned about a commenter on a message board coming back to say he/she was wrong? get a life.
Really ! MW is just a new bandwagon fan anyway! Just because it’s the trendy thing to do!
Takes pressure off of the younger arms in the rotation.
I hope that Arietta does not become a .500 pitcher with an ERA in the high fours.
Phillies have made some decent moves this offseason and this another one. I was hoping my Dodgers would get him at a bargain once the market shrunk up but good for him, the Phillies and Phillies fans. I know he isn’t as dominant as he was but he’s still a good pitcher.
hard to argue it from phils perspective. 45 for 3 years between santana/arrietta isnt going to keep them from doing anything they want to do in free agency; they have the veteran influence on both sides now, and its not like the phils have hit on any third round picks in any recent years.
its not out of the question the phils make a move like send an excess starter now to the o’s and later get heir comp pick which the o’s seem to like to trade anyway.
As a new padres fan I’m glad they didn’t go for arietta as rumors speculated a couple of days ago. Padres pitching will for the most part stink this yea but Arietta isn’t the answer. He’s far from being th superstar that people act like he is. 3 years 75 mil is money wasted on Arietta, I don’t care how much money the phillies have.
Your username is CubsNation but you are a Padres fan?
We traded him to SD he just hasn’t changed his name yet.
Did you even read my comment? After 17+ years as a Cubs fan I am now a Padres fan! They are doing things right and building a dynasty in San Diego. They’ve got the best rebuild going on that I’ve ever seen! So yes I am now a Padres fan, I supposed I should change my name or make a new account. I’m sick and tired of the disappointment that comes with being a Cubs fan. The fans were rated by EV Sports as having the #2 worst front office in all of baseball right behind the Marlins. I think after this year they will rightfully be ranked as the worst.
Psych Ward patients should not be allowed internet access.
Haha, knew he’d never sign on a West Coast team!
Way too much.
I’m shocked he got this much.
Declining player, turning into an average starter quickly.
Good that it’s only 3 years, and that’s likely why the aav went up to this point. But the Phillies way overpaid, and no market was likely coming together for him.
but they could overpay with no negative consequences, and it allowed them to get him for only the years they want. if john middleton doesnt care that he’s out 75 mil, nobody else should.
Agreed. An overpay.
After all the chips have fallen, who thought it would be Hosmer that walked away with the largest dollar amount.
our long national nightmare is over!
So sure were he and Boras that they could get 6-7 years/150-200 mill that they wouldn’t even give the Cubs the time of day last year when they wanted to talk about an extension. So much for that roll of the dice.
They offered him 4 at 110. Extension In Jan they offered 4 at 88 and before Darvish offered him the same deal. He turned it all down. His loss now.
Wow boras and arrieta win phillies lose. 25 a year ages 33-35? Wow is all I gotta say
ZG getting 34.4 at 35, 36, 37 and 38 what’s your point?
ZG can still pitch….
Yeah what was his ERA in 2016 when he joined Arz. If you say so.
If your stupid enough to pay any pitcher in MLB 34.4 at 36 or 37 or 38 you are stupid. If you think ZG worth 34.4 million a year you need to follow another sport. Seriously.
It’s 2018. Not 2016.
great 311 Day signing for us!
You got to come original
Considering he just turned 32 five days ago it’s safe to say it’s ages 32-34.
Great news for the Cubs. He did not go to the Nats, Brewers or Cards.
It’s kind of a waste that the Phillies are going to be spending pretty big money on Santana and Arrieta this year whem theu are likely to be irrelevant. Yes, they will have them in 2019 and 2020 when they may well be playoff contenders. But they are spending $45 million this year to win 75 games instead of 70, and it is more likely than not that each of these guys will be on the decline in years 2 ans 3.
Only reason this makes sense is that they want to look more attractive to free agents in 2019, and aren’t confident they could do a “Bring my talents to Broad St” and sign 3 or 4 of the big free agents next year.
Last winter they signed or traded for Saunders, Kendrick, Buchholz, Hellickson, Benoit, Neshak, Gomez, and Blanco for $67 million. And they got worse. Spending $45 million to win 5 more games is better than spending $67 million to win 7 less.
they are trying to create a new culture and attitude, and get out of the losing culture that has been there. its more than just the wins/losses you’ll see on the field this year.
it’s also waking up a fan base that has been ignoring them with the Eagles success and the Sixers Process starting to yield dividends.
the money would just be staying in the owners pockets otherwise.
What a horrible contract lmaoo. Thank you Phillies for taking him away from the Nationals on a 1 year deal or two max, sincerely an optimistic Mets fan 🙂
That strikes me as a solid, reasonable deal for both sides.
Can someone link to an actual source for the best offer the Cubs ever made to him?
Yeah NBC sports.
Quote: The Cubs reportedly are willing to offer Jake Arrieta a four-year, $110 million deal. David Kaplan discusses whether he likes it, loves it or hates it.
The last and final offer before Darvish.
The Cubs made a last-ditch call to free agent right-hander Jake Arrieta, gauging his interest in a deal similar to what Yu Darvish eventually agreed to Saturday, FanRag Sports reported.
What’s so hard to understand West Coast Ryan. I told over a month ago he sign with the Phillies because his market was limited, and they really are the only ones going to spend that kind of money . But you know it all. Phillies won’t sign him they have no reason too. Their not competing. Those were you’re words.
Now if you had any class you would admit you were wrong in front of the board and will leave it st that.
please seek help, michaelw.
Are you 14?
3 years $75 million.
The contract length fits in with Andy MacPhail’s philosophy. Matt Klentak probably told Scott Boras, “Andy won’t let me go more than 3 years. Call me back if you’re willing to do 3 years and I’ll top anyone else’s offer significantly.”
Could have signed Lynn and possibly Cobb for that deal and would have arguably been better fit for years to come then a aging pitcher whose velocity has dipped over the past few seasons. Cannot wait to see the Mets shell this dude like they did in the NLCS on a regular basis!
Called it, the Phillies got all the money in the world right now. and they will be the number #1 team on that division when Gio, Harper, and Murphy leave the Nats after 2018. They’re gonna go for Harper or Machado next season.
I’m surprised they gave so much to Arrieta though. Lynn seemed like a much better investment, especially when you see what he signed for.
If you think Harper or Machado sign with Phillies you’re out of your mind let’s state that now
Both Harper and Machado sign with the Phillies.
Yea sorry, not happening. I see Machado as a possibility but I don’t see them in the Harper race at all. They might make a cute offer but it ain’t happening.
The Phillies are the only team that can pay Harper.
No, they are not the only team that can afford him.
$25 mil AAV for a 3 year commitment to Arrieta is smart for a team that has the payroll flexibility and is actually trying to build a contending team. If the Phillies believe they can start competing within the next 3 years, and they should, this is a great move to bring on board a veteran pitcher who has been part of a winning atmosphere and still has something left in the tank, even if he won’t give them what he did in 2015 and 2016.
Bet the contract is fairly front loaded, in case he declines even further, and they don’t have to pay him as much in the 3rd, or second year
Here’s a question for everyone: How much will this offseason influence players (other than Jason Heyward) who can opt out after 2018?
That’s crazy, that’s why baseball is screwed up. Wow good for Jake bad for baseball and Steinbrenner started this crazy over paying. If Jake wins 25 games in each of the next 3 seasons the cubs still over paid.
Only a few more hours until we find out about that opt out after one year.
It’s actually an opt out after 2 years which the Phils can negate by picking up a 2-year team option extending the contract to 5 years.
(1)Arrieta will never opt out and (2) Arrieta is only needed for 2019.
I can’t even imagine when we will see someone exercise an opt out though I can imagine Cubs fans chanting “Opt out! Opt out! Opt out!” every time Jason Heyward comes up to bat.
buddy, all u do is complain that the phillies owners dont spend money, then went they spend 150M+ on free agents, u still complain
I like the signing. There are a ton of “ifs” with the Phils this year, but they’ll be competitive. Nothing wrong w vets like Santana and Arrieta leading the rebuild. Lots of kids on that team and they’ll benefit from a couple of solid guys that just came from successful franchises.
this is all in preperation for drawing a big name free agent next year…if they show improvement over previous years
Interested in more info about the extension/opt-out. Haven’t really heard of a contract structured like that.
You’ll never see any of that exercised unless the last year is for $15 million. If it’s just $25 mil each year then this is a three year deal. Even at that, unless Arrieta is a total stud for the next two years he’ll take that money rather than hit the open market again. This is going to get worse for the players not better. Only a strike can fix the problem.
“Arrieta will earn $30MM in 2018, $25MM in 2019 and $20MM in 2020, Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links). Arrieta can choose to opt out of the deal after the second season, though interestingly, the contract also allows the Phillies to “void” the opt-out in the form of an additional two-year extension for the 2021-22 seasons. That extension would pay Arrieta a base salary of $20MM in each of the two years, with incentive clauses that could elevate the salaries to $25MM based on games started in 2018-19, or up to $30MM based on Arrieta’s placement in NL Cy Young Award voting results.”
That is a huge overpay,
If Tanaka at 3 years and 67M was a good deal, this is a steal.
Tanka is either smart or lucky to not have opted out. He’d probably still be a free agent
1 year 8M?
Probably like 2/28 or something
Overpay or not it is great watching Boras lose this offseason. Lose isn’t the right word….. getting obliterated is more accurate. 3 year $75M deal? 2 years ago he convinced Arrieta he was worth Greinke money….. 6-7 years at over $200M. If he doesn’t lose some clients this season I don’t know what these players are thinking. Granted $75M is nothing to sneeze at, but what if I promised you I’d get you $100 but wound up just getting you $35 and told you…. “oh well.” Boras getting egg all over his face has made this one of the best offseasons ever.
What makes this even more hilarious is that the Cubs (of which I am a fan of) offered him the same deal they offered Darvish…. and he turned it down. That’s 3 more guaranteed years and $51M more dollars he and Boras left on the table. Looks like Boras might need to adjust his tactics because the amount of money he has lost his players this year is astounding. Have fun with Arrieta Philly. He opted for less money because he’d thought he’d get more and opted to play for a loser….. shows you where his mind is at. I think the Cubs squeezed all the talent Arrieta had in that arm of his. Would’ve been nice to bring him back on a similar deal to this but…… oh well. Swapping him for Darvish is an upgrade IMO.
Boras is still the games best agent. There isn’t one person in the world who would’ve read moustakas’ market right, and it’s not like either of the Cargos did much to help their value. Had Arrieta pitched like he did in 2016, he would’ve got a larger contract. But that’s on Arrieta, not Boras.
The report of Arrieta being offered a comparable deal was made by Bruce Miles. How many times does he need to clarify that his report did NOT mean the Cubs offered Arrieta the same deal? Because he’s already clarified it a dozen times… The Cubs were never comfortable going to 5-6 years for Arrieta. A comparable deal most likely meant 4 years with the same AAV – so 4/$84. He got more from the Phillies…
Good for him. Underlay for an elite pitcher regardless of his velocity going down. If he pitches at all like game 4 of last year’s nlcs. He’ll be back to his 2015 and 2016 form. Still wish he would’ve signed with the cubs. I feel that chatwood will be a very underrated signing for the cubs.
If arrogant Arrieta (and his idiot agent) would’ve actually been realistic about his value, he still could easily have been a Cub — with this kind of contract.
As a Cub fan, thanks for the memories, but your arrogance and attitude won’t be missed. Have fun not winning.
So many sour grapes comments from Cubs fans. I find it amusing.
It’s not sour grapes. It’s just the truth. We know him better than anyone.
Not so many a few. I wished him well.
Overpaid like crazy! Enjoy your high priced mediocre pitching Philadelphia!
Over pay? As a Cubs fan, I wish Jake got more. I wanted to see the guy get generational wealth because 1) he played a huge part in the Cubs finally winning a WS and 2) he’s still really good…
People saying he’s losing it are focused on two things. They unfairly compare him to his 2015 season. Or they look at some of his declining metrics.
To the first one – his 2015 season was historic. It’s considered by many to be the best stat line a pitcher has put up since Gibson in ’68. Of course he wasn’t going to match those numbers ever again. No one has matched those numbers in 50 years…
To the second one – his declining metrics can be concerning, but they didn’t seem to affect his overall numbers. After a bit of a shaky start, the guy pitched at an ace level for the final four months of the year (and into the playoffs.) Maybe the metrics catch up to him, but people act like the guy was terrible last year when he was actually pretty dominant.
When it comes to an overpay, people look at it wrong. They look at AAV or total monetary commitment. Those can be the right things to look at for some guys, but not a guy like Arrieta.
With him, AAV is trivial. Most expect him to pitch at a high level for at least so years. For a team with money a lot of prospects and almost no financial commitments, paying someone a high AAV for two years doesn’t really matter.
What you don’t wanna do is to get yourself locked in at a high rate years down the line and wind up paying Ace money for a pitcher who has declined past the point of being effective. The Phils have all but assured themselves they won’t. With Arrieta, the Phils have a TOR pitcher making top dollar at a point when it won’t prevent them from making necessary additions. And By the time the Phils need to make some additions, he’ll either be less expensive or he’ll be with another team.
He’s worth 3 years 45mil AT MOST! And that’s still on the generous side. Phillies overpaid.
That’s an opinion not shared by… well, anyone. Feel free to believe it, though. But just realize that you’re saying Jake Arrieta is worth Tyler Chatwood money. Hopefully that makes you feel ridiculous enough to re-think it…
The Phils need to make additions next winter, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. The Phillies can’t hit. If you want to win the World Series you have to hit like the Astros did in 2017.
Pitching does not win the trophy.
Bumgardener 2014 World Series?….he played a pretty huge role. But yes your right philly does need some bats, as for being able to sign both Harper and Machado, I don’t see it happening. Machado possibly, Harper? I doubt it.
Not to mention the fact that it’s been proven time and time again you can’t buy your way to a World Series win. Look at the Dodgers, look what the Padres did a couple years ago trying to bring in big expensive names to contend….it’s been tried over and over again, and most of the time it never works out.
Harper and Machado are not “big expensive names””
Aaron Altherr, Cesar Hernandez and Odubel Herrera are older than either Harper or Machado.
They are definatelly “big expensive names” I’m not saying they aren’t skilled if that’s what your thinking I meant. They’re beyond great! But you can’t simply spend millions and millions of dollars on stars and all of a sudden go from zero to World Series winner lol, it just doesn’t work that way. You need to build a cohesive team and it takes time, not hundred million dollar contracts.
“build a cohesive team”
What you are peddling is what every bloodsucking criminal MLB owner tries to sell. Only people of a really special kind of stupid are buying.
“it’s been proven time and time again”
George Steinbrenner. Thirty years, eleven World Series appearances, seven WS trophies.
You don’t have to hit like the Astros in 2017 to win the WS…. Seriously, why does everyone think the only way to win a championship is to mimic what last year’s winner did? Seriously – the Cubs won in 2016 because they had better starting pitching than Cleveland. The Royals won in 2015 because they had an elite bullpen. The Giants won in 2014 because Bumgarner was unhittable. That’s four-straight years of teams winning with different strengths.
And none of that is to say that the Phillies can’t make more additions, or that their young players can’t improve.
Being a Cubs fan, I seem to recall them signing Jon Lester to a deal that was twice as large as this one. That didn’t prevent them from shelling out 8/$184 for Heyward a year later. Why not? Because the Cubs are a big market team with a lot of money. The Phils are too. And what’s more is that the Phils actually have their huge TV deal in place – which the Cubs don’t… Signing Arrieta won’t take them out of the market for Harper or Machado next year. Those two might go elsewhere (probably will), but it wont be because of money.
As for their young players, Hoskins will get better. So will Crawford and Afaro. Franco has had a lot of success at a young age, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him bounce back from a rough year. But the bottom line is that a lot of this team’s offensive improvement will come internally…
“I wanted to see the guy get generational wealth…”
WHAT? You don’t consider $75 MILLION dollars generational wealth?
Especially when added on top of his career earnings thus far. I’d say he is set. Plus when this deal is up, if he’s healthy, he can possibly make a few million more.
As a braves fan, I hate this. Any time the phillies get better it just makes me sick. Hate them
And we hate the Braves. That’s what makes a great rivalry.
Have at it!
Excellent signing. FA pitching class next year is crap
It’s a really interesting contract-a series of internal bets. The Phillies are willing to bet $75M guarantee to control Arrieta for 2 years at $55M with an embedded call option for a total of five years at $115M (plus incentives). If Arrieta is very good, the Phillies exercise the option. If he’s OK, but not special, they root for Boras to figure he can get more than the $20K guaranteed going forward. That third year is essentially a QO year (without the pick) for Arrieta–he’s got the salary, if he wants it.
So he could’ve had way more from the Cubs both this offseason and a year or so ago. I’ll miss him when he was on, but won’t miss that attitude, the fact that he’s on the wrong side of 30, or his delivery (throwing across his body). Too much risk at that price. I think he ended up getting a great contract. Better than he deserves for the future (as opposed to what he was seeking: getting paid for past performance. No way do the Phillies void that opt-out. He’d have to revert back to 2015 Jake.
Phillies better know what they are doing dedicating $50MM total in 2018 to Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta.
The Phillies blew $50MM in 2017 on Kendrick, Buchholz, Saunders and Hellickson.
They got 119.2 IP and an ERA of 5.76 from the pitchers, Saunders was released for nothing, Buchholz hit the DL after 7 IP and they basically dumped Howie and Hellickson for nothing.
Yet, according to Forbes they were highly profitable.
They can afford to blow $50MM at this stage of their rebuild if the contracts don’t work out.
Safe contract….plenty of safety net for Phillies. If he performs… he gets rewarded. This is the model that all bigger contracts should take after. Should do the same with Harper…player opt out after 5 years… Void of opt out for team if they so feel. Protects organization from injury/non performance and player from outperforming the deal. Well done.
As a Cubs fan I said it before I’ll say it again. The Phils did well. I predicted he go there but some other idiot know it all swore up and down he wouldn’t. Excuse because the Phil’s are rebuilding. So what. You can’t win a WS by prospects alone no matter how top ranked they are. It takes a complete puzzle. Windows open and close. Get busy living or get busy dieing. The Phil’s did good. Cubs went the same way. In 2012 the lost 100 games had the best farm in baseball. Started to bring up those guys and built around them with Lester and then the JA trade. In 2015 they weren’t even expected to get to post season and shocked everyone. It was then after 2015 they knew they were there. Some minor adjustments and a few FA. The rest is history. Yeah they didn’t win the WS last year but they still contended. You have back up 2 decades before you find a team that did repeat. You for sure have to back up a 2 decades for a team to even 3 peat the championship series. They own the best reg record over the last 3 years. So they haven’t done all that bad since those 100 game losses in 2012-2013. The core is there it just a matter of adjustments every year when and where needed. That’s easy. People come and go. It keeping up with the Jones to coin a phrase. Philly don’t let trolls and haters tell you anything they are just mad. JA will do fine. The CK, Mad Max and Bums come around once in a blue moon. He will help and teach a young team. Is he worth 75 million. Yeah he’s worth 75 million. Really he’s worth 4/100 – 5/125. Their are a lot worse contracts these haters keep in the closet. I’ll take JA and his 75 million over Price’s 217 million any day of the week. You have Farm you have money and are were the Cubs were in 2014-2015. Philly might surprise everyone.
They may not win the Div or playoffs but they are getting close to the door. As KC was in 2014, As the Cubs were in 2015. The LAD in 2016. The Yanks in 2017. That’s what you look at and start to measure. All those teams went through the motions and were or are at the door. Then it takes only one or 2,trades at TDL to put you over. So it coming. I’m just glad stupid StL, Milw or Wash didnt add him and we got Darvish. So I wish Jake from State Farm well. Guess he will do Geico commercials now. Lol. You guys will be happy. I look forward to playing against him when we see you guys. Good luck Philly this season.
“You have to back up two decades to find a team that threepeated the championship series.” Cards 4 peated the nlcs 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014. With one title and another pennant. Cubs fans think they’re success is historic when their arch rivals did better this same decade. Guess they don’t count that though. Can’t wait till cubs start tanking again in a few years so they can be lovable losers again. Instead of insufferable winners
Well said. I hope he does well. Personally I was hoping he would re-sign it just wasn’t meant to be. I’d rather only face him 2 times a year. Instead of 15-19 times if he went to Milwaukee or St. Louis. Phillies are a dangerous team and they will turn heads. My prediction is they’ll be the brewers of last year. Only they’ll win the 2nd wild card. Milwaukee will be back in the gutter and in 3rd place(I can’t see the reds being better than them or Pittsburgh.
That’s a great point I agree with on them blowing 50 million last year and that they can take that risk at this point. Santana and Arrietta are going to make them better but the big picture is broken down more… Santana leads these young guys on offense; Between him, Crawford and Hernandez they should have some of the best obp and walk rates in the league. Hoskins will get better, Herrea and Altherr are better than ppl think, Kingery is on the way and Franco could bounce back. Now add Arrietta to the pitching staff. Nola is a future cy young candidate as he matures. If Velequez and Eckhoff bounce back and you get atleast 10-12 wins a piece from those two behind Nola and Arrietta, then that is competitive enough to compete, when you factor in the high obp numbers coming out of the lineup. Young bullpen with a few solid veterans…I feel they need a closer and maybe a Chris Archer to be dominate with the current group. Add Machardo or Harper next winter, then they not only have star power but more trade chips in who they replace – to get even better. They are ahead of the braves in development, the Marlins are too young..they’re the Marlins lol, the mets offense will be older by next year and sitting around 3rd place – so pushing against the Nationals for the division. … Arrietta and Santana are part of a bigger plan. I hate that ppl say they aren’t ready… Look at their roster in depth, add in big spending next winter – these moves are catalyst moves for more to come. I am gonna predict by next winter, they add 2/3 of Machardo, Harper and trade of Archer or another big arm – plus add a big closer next year, Kimbrel or Britton, etc .. they have that history: Brad Lidge, Billy Wagner, Mitch Williams, Jonathan Pappelbon… Don’t be shocked to see Kimbrel or Britton on a 3 yr deal next winter, plus Machardo or Harper and a trade for a big arm between now and next seasons trade deadline. These young guys are gonna get better. They were a 75 win team after Santana…add Arrietta plus whoever steps up, Nola, Velequez, Hoskins, Crawford, etc – gives them the potential to win the wildcard “this year”. 85 wins is not unreasonable at this moment… They are closer than ppl think. This only helps lure Machardo or Harper next year.
I really, really like this contract. To be clear, I don’t think he’ll perform well enough to justify the money he’ll be getting, but the structure of this contract is a step in the right direction for future free agent contracts. While I, personally, believe that contracts should feature a higher cash ceiling with 80-90% of the money earned via incentives, it’s awesome to see teams starting to wise up to the fact that the present and future vastly outweigh the past.
Arrieta was inhuman in 2015 and could have been the 1 or 2 on any team in 2016-2017, but barring a miracle, his 2017 performance is the best the Phillies are going to get and a 3.50-4.00 ERA with diminishing velocity and control is not worth $25m / yr.
I am a huge fan of Jake’s. I think he’s a tremendous athlete and I’ve heard nothing but good things about him as a person, but with his asking price via Boras, I’m not surprised that it took this long to find a suitor. I was honestly expecting him to enter the 2018 season without a team and signing by the end of April after someone’s ace goes down for -maybe- $16-17m for the remainder.
This has got to be one if the dumbest moves this off-season. Not the signing itself, the Phillies needed pitching and Arrieta has been one in the past. All kidding aside, he’ll do reasonably ok. But do the Phillies realize that no one else was bidding against them? I would have offered 3/60 or 2/50 and let him choose whenever he was ready to settle. Everyone here says the Phillies can afford it, the have plenty of money. But it’s more than just money. This sets a precedent that they will bid against themselves in contract negotiations. Not good if you’re aiming to sign Harper next year.
The Phillies already did that when they escalated the reliever market by paying Tommy Hunter $9 million a year and Pat Neshak $8 million. They then overpaid Carlos Santana right before Yonder Alonso got a lot less. The team’s payroll budget is $175-$180 million and even with this contract they might not hit $100 million this year based on AAV. So it really doesn’t make a difference if they have a payroll of $99 million or $85 million this year.
It’s not necessarily a bad precedent. Harper knows they’ll spend and probably top anyone else’s offer by a good margin. That has to make the attractive. Andy MacPhail is really risk adverse so I think they’d cap their offer at something that won’t hamper them somewhere down the line.
“it really doesn’t make a difference if they have a payroll of $99 million or $85 million this year.
it actually does considering teams will often carry over gains from one year into the next. while they might not be anywhere near what is budgeted, there is no reason to be laissez faire with their spending when not needed. of course we can’t see their books so we’ll never know for certain.
Last year they acquired or re-signed 7 players for $67 million that weren’t necessary. In fact, none of them were on the 25 man roster by August and once they were gone the team played a lot better. They could’ve done as well with a $44 million payroll as they did with a $111 million payroll.
The team’s revenue is so high that flushing $67 million down the toilet didn’t hinder them in any future years. They could’ve added another $67 million and still made a profit. This isn’t my speculation. Ownership has said they can afford such a high payroll.
So when the team can afford a $180 million payroll, you really aren’t wasting resources if you have a $99 million payroll instead of $85 million. The profits they’re making aren’t ones they can bank for the future because they’d have to go significantly above the luxury tax threshold to spend them. They aren’t going to spend $230 on payroll no matter how much money they save now.
They’re paying Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana a combined $55 million this year That may be an overpay but it won’t hinder them in the future. These contracts are front loaded so that they’ll only pay the two $37 million in 2020. I doubt they’ll approach a $180 million payroll that year but they’re using 2018 money to ensure they won’t.
Brewers are going to suck….hope we’re all ready for a playoff “contender” to have chase anderson as thier ace…say that slowly…
Lol they haven’t had an ace since Ben Sheets.
I think this is a solid move for Phillies. He has had success against other NL East clubs. As a Nationals fan, I worry little bit but also welcome to see a more challenging team compete against us. NL East baseball became more fun.
When all is said and done, Arrieta gets a $27.5 million AAV guaranteed for 2 years then he opts out OR the Phillies void the opt-out by guaranteeing years 4 and 5 and pay him $115 million for 5 years with a possibility of $135 million if he hits his escalators.
5/115 is a $23 million AAV. Higher than Darvish.
As a Cubs fan, I will miss him, but just couldn’t see paying him what he wanted. I hope he does well in Philly, until he pitches against us of course. Congrats Jake, and thank you for everything.
Arthur J Kyriazis
It seems like a good signing. Our son is a sports marketing major and up on all the microstats for pitchers, and he’s pointed out a number of favorable microstats on Arrieta. The Phillies have a young staff, but having an ace out leading every fifth day will take stress off the rest of the starters, and Aaron Nola shows signs of crossing over to a not just good but great #2 starter. Combined with the Santana signing, it looks like they pick up about 5-10 WAR potentially, which raises them from 66-76 wins maybe. They still need more WAR from developing players to get the other ten-15 wins to get into the playoff hunt, but it could be they are playing for 2019.
Art Kyriazis, molecular biologist, biostatistician, sometime SABR guy