We just performed this exercise for position players; now, we’ll look at the best-performing starters who inked minor-league pacts last winter. With a helpful head start from many of the commenters in the above post, I’ve identified the rotation pieces that couldn’t get 40-man spots in the offseason but have nevertheless emerged as useful big league performers in 2018.
Unlike the group of hitters, many of the names that will appear below also showed up on our early-season glance at minor-league signees from the starting pitching ranks. Indeed, every member of the original list warrants some mention here.
Without further ado …
- Dereck Rodriguez, Giants: The bonanza of the 2017-18 minor-league class, Rodriguez has been one of the most impressive rookie starters in all of baseball despite being allowed to reach minor-league free agency last fall by the Twins. It’s unlikely he’s a true-talent 2.34 ERA pitcher — in particular, it seems doubtful he’ll continue to hold opposing hitters to a .264 BABIP and 5.7% home run rate — but he’s certainly producing quality peripherals (3.14 FIP / 4.01 xFIP / 4.08 SIERA). In any event, warning about regression for Rodriguez is like somewhat akin to raising concerns with the futures market for gold after your neighbor discovers a lode in her backyard. The Giants can count their found fortune later; for now, it’s enough that they’ve already received a huge contribution from Rodriguez and control him for six more seasons to come.
- Wade LeBlanc, Mariners: Though he signed a MLB deal with Seattle just before the start of the season, that was a minimal commitment ($650K) that was only handed out after LeBlanc had been released from his minors pact with the Yankees. Accordingly, we’ll consider him a part of the field. LeBlanc pitched so well in the first half of the year that he landed a rare mid-season extension. The results haven’t been as good since, but LeBlanc still owns a strong 3.81 ERA through 113 1/3 innings with 7.1 K/9 against just 1.8 BB/9.
- Derek Holland, Giants: Though he hasn’t produced bottom-line results as impressive as those maintained by Rodriguez or some others on the list, Holland is filling up innings with solid overall outcomes for San Francisco. He’s now through 124 2/3 frames of 3.97 ERA ball; this is already his most productive season since way back in 2013. This still isn’t the pre-injury version of Holland. He once threw about two miles an hour harder, after all. But he’s carrying a career-high 10.7% swinging-strike rate this year and now seems in line for a major-league contract next winter.
- Jeremy Hellickson, Nationals: It’s sobering to think about how an already-tough Nats season would look without Hellickson. He’s carrying a 3.54 ERA through 84 innings, with 6.6 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 along with a 46.2% groundball rate. Unsurprisingly, ERA estimators value him more as a low-4’s type of pitcher, but that’s still a useful back-of-the-rotation piece.
- Anibal Sanchez, Braves: Given the depth and duration of his struggles in recent seasons, it’s all the more surprising to see Sanchez performing so well. He has finally gotten a hold on the homer problems that plagued him. Though he’s certainly benefiting from an unsustainable .243 BABIP-against in producing his sparkling 2.83 ERA over 86 frames, Sanchez’s contributions to date are valued in the high-3 ERA-equivalent range by estimators. He has been exactly what the Braves needed for a youthful staff.
- Clay Buchholz, Diamondbacks: Long a talented pitcher when things are clicking, Buchholz has been on since heading to Arizona. He’s through 64 frames with a 2.67 ERA. Though regression seems in store, and his velocity is well off his peak levels, Buchholz is getting whiffs at nearly a career-high rate.
- Edwin Jackson, Athletics: It’s only eight starts, but they’ve been awfully useful ones. The veteran hurler has given the A’s 47 frames of 2.87 ERA pitching since finding his way to the organization in the middle of the season. ERA estimators don’t really think he has pitched that well, as he’s sporting a 4.01 FIP, 4.45 xFIP, and 4.57 SIERA. The Oakland ballclub, too, surely knows that Jackson — like some of its other veteran hurlers — can’t be relied upon to keep up his current level of production, which helps explain the recent addition of Mike Fiers and a slew of relief pitchers. Still, Jackson has already made a nice contribution since joining his record-tying 13th MLB team.
- Tyson Ross, Padres/Cardinals: When last we looked, Ross had a 3.28 ERA in 35 2/3 innings. He has faded since, but still gave the Padres 22 starts and 123 1/3 frames of 4.45 ERA ball on the whole. Ross has shown some hints of his vintage skillset at times this year, but hasn’t sustained it over full outings or a full season as a starter. Now, it seems, he’ll be viewed as some kind of hybrid reliever in St. Louis, perhaps offering an opportunity to unlock some hidden value for the 31-year-old.
- Honorable Mention: There are a few more hurlers who’ll surely come to mind for some, but who I felt didn’t deserve full features. Wade Miley has a 2.10 ERA for the Brewers, but it’s only over 34 1/3 innings and the peripherals aren’t very appealing. Brett Anderson (Athletics), Yovani Gallardo and Austin Bibens-Dirkx (Rangers) have given some innings, but not enough or good enough to warrant inclusion. The age-defying Bartolo Colon has certainly reached some notable milestones and compiled some frames, filling up 130 1/3 for the Rangers, but really has not been very effective. Trevor Cahill quite likely would have ended up on this list, but he waited things out and landed an MLB deal late in Spring Training. As Jeff Sullivan wrote recently, that has panned out quite nicely for the Athletics.
So, who’d I miss? Let me know in the comments!
Where’s Alen Hansen?
/s
He’s on the position players list
“/s” is internet speak for sarcasm. He was joshing about all of the people who listed pitchers on the position players list.
Well, I learned something new today.
pitchers, I made the same mistake yesterday. Ask Jeff lol
Pudge’s son definitely runs away with this, but I’d question that a 3.14 FIP might really be a 2.34 ERA guy, or at least a sub 3.00 ERA guy, 3.14 is really low. Rodriguez’s overall career numbers kind of line up with this outburst. I think he’s for real. What a bummer the Twins couldn’t keep him for one more year, he was even really good last year in the minors.
With his below average ground ball percentage he should be giving up more homeruns. He’s managed to avoid them so far thanks to a little bit of luck, but that luck is not likely to continue. That’s why other ERA estimators peg him as a 4.00 ERA kind of guy, which is still excellent for a minor league signing that they get for 6 more years
People don’t consider him to have good potential because of him being a late bloomer, but many don’t know that this is roughly only his 4th year as a pitcher. He was drafted as an outfielder and converted. I think he’s a potential 2.90-3.30 ERA guy especially if he stays in SF, the park is built for a guy like him.
There are probably no more than a dozen true-talent sub-3.00 ERA starters in the game. I think that is exceedingly optimistic as a forward-looking expectation, honestly.
Optimistic, but I think he can sustain it for at least a couple seasons. Reminds me a bit of Jered Weaver, hopefully he doesn’t age like he did, but I think he could be solid for 2-3 years before he gets figured out.
Yeah don’t think he’ll be a sub 3.00 guy. Maybe a breakout season. He has the stuff to be a 3.50-4.00 era.
“He should be giving up more home runs.” He’s pitching to how his stadium works. AT&T is a big ballpark. Fly balls often don’t carry there especially with how the wind blows inward. When I’ve watched him pitch, his stuff isn’t anything crazy but he throws all of his pitches to the corners. Excellent control, which is the reason why he can rack up 8-10 Ks pet start without having a 96-98 MPH fastball or nasty slider. Pitchers like him tend to age well. Take Bartolo Colon for example.
He may have an ability to limit homers. But he’s probably still overperforming it. Interestingly, he got lots of infield flies in the minors but hasn’t done so yet in the big leagues. Not sure what that means but it could be relevant to his HR/FB future.
Exactly. FIP likes him b/c the HR rate is so low. But is that a sustainable skill for him? Maybe to some extent. But we can’t assume he’ll keep allowing just 5.7% HR/FB. Only one qualified pitcher has a lower number than that this year.
Brett Anderson has a 3.52 ERA over his last 8 starts. He only got destroyed once, by Houston, then gave up 4 runs vs the Rockies and Yankees. 7 other appearances 0-3 runs. I don’t see how he’s not included.
For a guy with under 50 innings, I had a little higher bar. You can do the “except for that one outing” thing with a lot of pitchers. Not to say he hasn’t been a useful guy. No doubt. I did mention him.
Sanchez has been amazing for the Braves. Maybe not the best of the bunch, but we wouldn’t be in first place without him.
Erik Goeddel
hmmm i dont think Erik Goeddel has ever started a game in his career
Hasn’t started really since 2013 in AA.
Shohei Otani would count since he was signed to a minor league deal due to the international policy made by the MLB.(on international players younger than 25 coming over)
I hereby declare him ineligible by virtue of the posting fee and bonus money.
Glad Hellickson is finding success
He was great for Philly in 16, but absolutely awful in 17
As bad a MN needs pitching all the time how do they send a guy with decent minor league numbers like Rodriguez packing? My question is based solely on his MiLB stats.
With the exception of one bad start, Seattle lefthander Wade LeBlanc has been solid since signing an extension on July 3, posting an ERA of 3.41 in his six other starts covering 37 innings.
See above re “one bad outing” … but hey, I’m not hating on Wade at all. He’s been great. And I root for him since he was a cool podcast guest back in the day.
Wade LeBlanc added an important win Saturday evening against the division-leading and defending World Series champion Houston Astros.
And LeBlanc has certainly projected a good-guy image on and off the field.
If you’re going to add LeBlanc (MiLB with NYY, released then major league deal with SEA)
Add Oliver Perez (MiLB with NYY, released then major league deal with CLE) Oliver Perez’s Cleveland major league deal was so insufficent, I think terms were undisclosed. Lol
Perez has a 1.45 ERA, 0.59 WHIP, 22K, 2BB in 18.2 IP
Whoops, just read “Starting Pitchers” Now I know how all you guys felt in the “Positional players” thread. Lol!
Still, Perez’s performance is exceptional, considering the dire status of Cleveland’s bullpen.
This list and the position player list show the Giants management isn’t as clueless as they are often portrayed. Perhaps the ownership overvalues homegrown talent. Certainly high dollar free agents have been massive busts. But the Giants continue to mine talent on low cost players.
Not to say I’m endorsing the idea of the Giants FO being clueless — I’m not — but there is an alternative take here. Namely, that they have had to give opportunities to uncertain (and therefore available for free/cheap) players more so than some other would-be contenders. Some have worked out, but many haven’t. And a Holland type isn’t a substitute for a 4-5 WAR pitcher.
IMO it is hard to judge these signings. The Giants signed Holland in February, so we don’t even know if they targeted him specifically or sort of just ended up with him. Or take the A’s with Edwin Jackson … does the team get credit there?
Now, getting Rodriguez and Hanson on minors deals is pretty darned nice. I’m not going to sit here and say they don’t deserve credit for it. Just … I find it hard to know from the outside if that is more just a lucky coincidence, combined with open opportunity, or whether there’s a repeatable process here.
I guess Asia doesn’t count as minor league with regards to Mikolas.
He signed a guaranteed MLB deal.
Cool stuff, Jeff. Another interesting group might be “in season waiver claims” such as Rosell Herrera, etc.