Last night, Bryce Harper and the Nationals played their final home game in a lost season. As Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes, it was somewhat anticlimactic — and, for the same reason, perhaps appropriate for a club that has fallen well short of expectations.
To this point, both Harper and the Nats have expressed ample mutual admiration. But there’s no particular reason to think that the sides will line up on a late-breaking extension to keep Harper from reaching free agency. While that can’t be ruled out entirely, it seems far likelier that the 25-year-old will be issued, and will then decline, a qualifying offer.
Of course, the relationship could be re-started from the open market. Harper clearly seems open to considering a return, at least, and the team surely isn’t eager to part with a franchise-altering superstar. At the same time, practicalities — including the allure of other teams (and contract offers), on the one hand, and a ready-made replacement outfield unit in DC, on the other — could well make this an opportune moment for both sides to wish the other a fond farewell.
There’s time yet to consider Harper’s place in the broader market, including contract valuation and the best potential suitors. We’ll be assessing that closely over the coming months. For now, it seems a more appropriate time to gauge the sense of MLBTR readers on a simpler question — Harper’s likelihood of returning to the Nats — in a thoroughly unscientific manner. How would you characterize the situation as the ’18 campaign draws to a close?
He’s gone!
Nope, he returns. And the Nats will deeply regret that decision.
Spoken like a fan of a team that couldn’t afford him…
Nope fan of a team that is, like me, wholly uninterested in him as a long-term piece.
After all, your predictions are on the money. Especially what a good squad the Orioles had at the outset of the season!!
This comment thread seems really light for some reason. Can you put your finger on it?
IMHO he leaves and is one of the first FA to sign elsewhere.
With Scott Boras as his agent it will take a while to sign regardless of who he signs with. Wouldn’t be surprising to go into spring training.
Happy Trails to you!!
I said coin flip since last years free agency market was odd so who knows how this goes.
Gads……
The first of dozens of polls about Harper leaving the Nationals. And the season isn’t even over yet. Four months of daily articles on here to come, with a blizzard of statistics and thousands of comments saying the same things over and over.
Without the ability to filter out Harper articles, the next best thing to to pretty much avoid reading this site and getting my MLB info elsewhere. A pity as there is some good information here about other players and teams.
Oh well. Talking about overplaying ones hand……
“the next best thing to to pretty much avoid reading this site and getting my MLB info elsewhere.” – “to to”? Lol, can’t even make fun of you – too easy, peasant.
You’re a miserable little troll!
Saber Smuckers, you’re saying making fun of him is easy? You’re no riddle yourself…… I’d call you out but I see you’re calling yourself out
Miserable troll, yes, Angry human being too. Goodness.
Please explain why I am a troll. Being serious. This is my favorite site, my go-to for baseball info. The commenter took a jab at it so I fired back – how is that trolling?
In my opinion, a troll would say something like “Harper sucks”, just to annoy people. Not what I did.
You also didn’t need to capitalize “angry”, if that makes me a troll in your book then I can’t help you.
I’m no riddle? What does that even mean?
Again, he made a disparaging comment against my favorite site, so I fired back. Not understanding the “troll” nonsense.
Also, great job with the six “……”, did you learn that at Harvard or Yale? Three is sufficient.
I guess this will also make me a troll.
are you delusional, naive, or just not very smart? ALL sport sites are going to have nonstop coverage of Harper and Machado. lol… everytime you post here during the off-season, remember how much of a fool you made of yourself today.
Anyone know why he was so bad defensively this year – or is a -3.2 dWAR not concerning? (His previous low was a -0.9 dWAR, so it looks like a blip, but pretty bad going into free agency – and most likely to a NL team).
At least partially due to playing out of position, according to Keith Law’s chat today:
“…He was worth about 5 WAR last year, and was only below 4 WAR this year because of poor defensive metrics, some of which came from playing out of position in CF.”
That’s part of it, but his DRS in RF this year was extremely extremely bad, even worse than his DRS in CF, so IDK what else contributed.
I rarely watch Nats games, so take it with a grain of salt, but earlier this season (after the Nats were out of contention) I saw him play in right at Citi Field and he just looked like he didn’t care. I saw a ball drop five feet in front of him that he could’ve caught easily but didn’t move for. There was also a foul ball he might have been able to catch but just jogged to.
Looking at Insider Edge fielding stats, he’s made almost all of the routine plays. But when it’s not a super easy play, his success is way down. He’s only made 16.7% of unlikely (10-40%) catches, compared to his career average of 28.9%; only 25% of even (40-60%) catches, compared to his career average of 58.6%; and only 66.7% of likely (60-80%) catches, compared to his career average of 77.3%.
The media loves this guy and say he’s the best player not named Trout. 7 years over 30 hr twice, batted over 300 twice and only 100 RBI once. Career batting is .278. Yet the media likes to say he will get $400 million. Sorry I ain’t the Bryce Hype train. He’s overrated by a fair margin. Yes I looked up his stats and I tried to change them to make him look better
Not overrated but not worth 400 million either. No player worth 400m
I agree he shouldn’t get paid like that but then again look at what heyward got. I would have never imagined that
Seems really unlikely to me that a team that already has Soto, Robles and Eaton is gonna add $30M+ to keep their other great outfielder. I would have voted “no chance” except with Rizzo and the Lerners, you can’t really rule it out.
Eaton has a very affordable contract so he would have some appeal on the trade market. Eaton also wouldn’t be a bad insurance policy in case Soto regresses, Robles doesn’t live up to the hype, or Harper gets hurt. It’s not unheard of for a $8-10M player as a platoon/4th OF role.
I don’t entirely disagree about Eaton, but the Nats also have Michael A Taylor who can fill that 4th OF role relatively well. He isn’t, at least this year, the hitter that Eaton is, but he might be a marginally better fielder and would certainly be cheaper. To that end I’d rather trade Eaton for a prospect and let Michael A Taylor be the 4th OF.
Eaton is a much better hitter and the defense is about the same. Taylor is to streaky but he is mostly cold with a few short lived spikes throughout the year. Taylor is also a better fielding center fielder but Eaton is a very good fielding right fielder (Chicago stats)
they would be selling low on Eaton. I think it’s more likely that they trade Robles to get a proven #1 starter. But it’s a moot point, since Harper is not coming back.
If the Nats are going to spend, they should get Machado and slide Turner to 2B.
Or just get pitching.
If they do sign him you know one of Eaton, Robles or Soto will have to be traded.
Robles foe Realmuto
I could see a packaged headlined by Robles for Realmuto, but Harper is gone
Do not believe earlier in the season that he would ever return to the Nats. But then he forgot how to get hits he realized that he might have to continue playing for them. Also if he seemed to scratch the Nats off the list it would be tough to use them in negotiations.
Part of me wonders if he does actually accept the QO, give everyone another year to try to negotiate an extension in DC since he clearly loves it there. He’s probably not at $400M+ at the moment on the FA market but with one additional great year he could build his value back up over that hump
Bryce Harper will sign an extension when Camila Cabello goes on a date with me. I figure he asks for an opt-out after 2019 or 2020 so if he returns to MVP form he can try again while still being relatively young for a free agent and not having the QO attached.
Who’s he?
Part of the reason he projects a huge contract is his age. Adding another year before free agency probably doesn’t help him much, even with another good year
less years, but more per year.
Nats have needs at 1B, 2B, and C. Signing Harper doesn’t address a need, but it would put them in a position where they could only afford to fill those positions with placeholders. Their money is better spent on signing Grandal, maybe LeMahieu, and one of the perennially available 1B options for the same money they’d spend on Harper.
ZERO.
Colorado, Atl, Yanks and Philly would be most appealing to me if I wanted to pad my numbers.
Colorado, Atlanta…lofl
Last big FA signing for the Nats I remember was Scherzer, right? And didn’t they stretch his contract out for an absurd amount of time? I just don’t see it, they need pitching and will have to pay Rendon and Turner at some point.
I think Harper is a Giant next year for what it’s worth.
Is it wise for a first year GM to give out what will most likely be the biggest contract in history and will also most likely end up being an albatross? As a Giants fan I hope they stay away from an inconsistent Harper. His performance doesn’t merit his likely contract.
“think” or actually hope?
Unfortunately I still think the Angels will be team that signs him. To show Trout that they are committed to building a team around him. Yes I know the Angels need pitching, but RF is also a need that needs to be filled. Calhoun could be traded, or kept as a fourth outfielder for next year. Then have his option for 2020 be bought out.
Not sure the $80 Million Dollar Outfield + Dollar Store Pitching Rotation is the strategy the Angels are likely to pursue this offseason.
Name one FA starting pitcher other than Kershaw, who will be better than what they currently have? Relievers yes. But starters no. By signing Harper, that would give the Angels the option to trade Adale and or Marsh. For young cost control starters. Instead of the injury prone starters they have now.
Besides it also gives the Angels, a back up plan if they are unable to reach an extension with Trout. Which is unlikely they won’t be able to, since Trout has said he is willing to sign an extension with the Angels.
Doesn’t matter because the angels will wreck whoever’s in the rotations arm anyways
Has there been a drop in voting since the godaddy log in was required? I’m having all sorts of issues with getting that set up.
He gone
voted coin flip just because I don’t think that there are that many teams that have “spots” for that kind of money. Will the Yanks make room?
Harper will sign with the Padres and soon after they will move him to 3B!
if I was the Nats, I’ll land both of Manny and Harper as they are relatively young and if Scherzer has paid of for them, I think this two will as well.
1.Turner SS
2.Soto LF
3.Rendon 2B
4.Machado 3B
5.Harper RF
6.Robles CF
7.Murphy 1B
8.Ramos C
9.Scherzer SP
would love to see the Nats bounce back and sport that opening day line up.
Where does Adam Eaton play?
who’s he?
That is one hell of a payroll.
Im going to be a little conservative lets assume harper get 30 mil machado 25 mil and murphy 10 mil (he is a fa too). Add in the the around 38 mil each due scherzer and strasburg. with another 18 to zimmerman (based on cot payroll site) you are looking at just under 160 mil to 6 players.
Chump change
@to4 What is this, franchise mode in mlb the show?
I went coin flip to as $35M-$40M a year for 8 to 10 is a lot for any one team to give a player.
I do think the Phils are going to be extremely aggressive this offseason, and possibly the Dodgers if they don’t make the playoffs. I think the Yankees will hold off, they need starting pitching and have two All-Stars in the outfield already.
He’s going where he can get the most $$$. Same with Machado…
Disclaimer: As a Yankee fan I too felt an attachment to our young rookies Andujar, Toress and to a lesser extent Bird. When conversations regarding a Machado trade I prefered they give the kids a chance rather than fork over another long-term contract in the $200 mil + range. There is NO DOUBT that Manny has proven himself as a above average defender and great power hitter. Andujar has had a great season but can he improve his defense an maintain his bat, remains a question for time to tell. That being said….
Harper has a long track record that proves he’s an elite talent. Robles MIGHT be a future all-star. However, even factoring in his young age, he didn’t exactly have an amazing year in the minors in 2018. I won’t address his mlb showing since it’s such a small sample size. Eaton is a solid player who plays an ok defender with great contact and walk ability. However, he offers little power and has missed over 200 games in the last 2 years. He’s also 5 years older than Harper.
The biggest question I think regarding whether or not they should fight to bring him back is….”can they afford NOT to bring him back”? The Nats are built to win now. Max is 33 yo and despite having an amazing season, one has to think that his days as an elite pitcher might be winding down in the next 3 years. Rendon has 1 more year left on his deal. Harper was a major bat for them. Can they afford to let him walk? Nat’s will have a ton of money devoted to Max and Strasburg next year ($80 mil) so can they afford to invest that much money into two pitchers with risks to NOT go hard to field the best team possible? Eaton and Robles shouldn’t be factors as to whether they go hard to retain Harper next season.
there is nothing wrong with having 4 OFs. especially, if Harper can start getting some ABs at 1B (if his OF defense is as bad as everyone seems to think. especially when Soto, Robles and even Adam Eaton are on the cheap to inexpensive side. but i’d like to see Bryce on the 10yr 340mill or less contract side
much more than that will likely be cost prohibitive for the majority of the deal. while a 34mill aav contract may well seem like a steal in 5 years.
It’s an obvious Blutarsky. To me.
Anyone else see his instagram today? Seemed pretty likely he’s leaving.
I don’t think he’ll sign with Washington. If he did they could use Robles as the headliner for Realtmo
He’ll probably end up with a 10+ year pact full of Boras styled opt outs after every season so he can take advantage of good production or stick the team with a contract he can’t live up to like Heyward’s deal. If that happens it’ll be the teams fault for doing it but I bet that’s what happens.
50-50.
Forget the name. What is a 26 year old with the same numbers and track record worth? Not 400 M.
The Mets could use a lefty hitting corner outfielder
Can harper play 1st for nats? If so his bat would play there. If not i can see yankees paid out the ass for harper front loaded contract with opt outs after year 5 and 8
Dodgers will get him before the Yankees do.
Thanks to taking on that whale of a contract for Stanton?
Yep, but still cheaper than Harper.
Let’s wait and see.
Wherever he goes I bet he still woulnt smile. Ps trout is better.
I just don’t click on the articles that don’t interest me.
Anybody else getting a pop up add on the mobile app? Very annoying
I go through the Bleacer Report app. No problems.
I just would like to see a player play for pride and want to be good enough to be a HOFer then want to be the highest paid because of their ego. Classic example is Machado, if he would just stay at third base for his whole career he could possibly be the best there ever was but no it’s all about money and his ego
should of traded him when they had the chance
Get him St Louis. We need a left handed power bat, and he would fit perfectly in right field and hitting 3rd in the lineup, in front of Ozuna.
An outfield of Ozuna, Bader, and Harper would be great.
He’s gone. The recent chatter has been because it’s his final week and his final homestand just concluded. I’m sure he enjoyed him time in Washington and has appreciation for all the players, coaches, front office, and fans he’s met along the way. But you’ve had years to work out a long term deal. Though I thought they should’ve traded him last offseason, I understand why. Same reason St. Louis didn’t trade Pujols, Cleveland/Miami didn’t trade LeBron, OKC didn’t trade Durant, New England hasn’t traded Brady and so forth across sports. There’s some players you get that you can’t get rid of. I feel in a year once he’s being paid market value the transcendent talent label will be removed a bit.
8-10 32-35/yr opt out after 3 years is my guess. I could see him landing in Chicago if they decide to trade schwarber, which they should to an AL team
I’m going to say 90 percent chance he lands with the Cubs seeing as they are getting that new tv deal and his relationship with Bryant. I could also see the Cubs signing Machado too with the Russell issue.
Baez
Harper
Bryant
Rizzo
Machado
Schwarber
Heyward
Contreras
Plus Kershaw, Corbin, and Kimbrel.
Cubs cant afford that. LOL
Lol,sure with Play Money or get rid of half the team
Whoever signs him will regret it. He’s .278 hitter in 7 season. One year he hits .300 then the next he has problems hitting his weight. One year with 100 RBI’s. Not a chance in the world I would want my team to sign him. Plus he’s a head case and a poor teammate. The only plus I see is that’s he’s young but he also gets hurt a lot. Nothing like $30 million a year sitting on the DL.
I think it’s overall more likely he ends up elsewhere but I think it’s closer than many might think… it wouldn’t be a shock to me whatsoever if he dated.
Dated = Stayed
Gotta remember, Nats still have Soto and Robles to worry about. Harper’s contract is expected to be longer in length than the time it will be to reach arb+ years for them. If you’re shelling out tons of money for Harper, can you afford to pay/extend them, and still get competitive pieces?
He Gone,he needs a good Clubhouse and not Choke in Post Season
Harper will do what ARod did and ride another player’s coattails. Harper doesn’t have the personality to lead a team and should find himself a Derek Jeter to hide behind. He’ll end up with the Cubs, a team that doesn’t have to be ‘his’ team.