The Seibu Lions will make left-hander Yusei Kikuchi available this winter via the posting system, according to a report from Sankei Sports (hat tip to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times). The 27-year-old isn’t eligible for full free agency until 2020, but reports from earlier this year indicated that Kikuchi was interested in testing himself in Major League Baseball, and it had been expected that the Seibu Lions would accommodate his request.
Kikuchi immediately becomes one of the most intriguing members of the 2018-19 free agent class, as he has posted strong numbers over eight pro seasons (all with Seibu Lions, apart from five starts in the Australian Baseball League in his rookie year). Kikuchi has a 2.81 ERA, 8.0 K/9, and 2.43 K/BB rate over 1035 1/3 career innings, and particularly stood out after recording a 1.97 ERA and 10.4 K/9 over a career-best 197 2/3 frames in 2017.
Despite taking a bit of a step back results-wise (3.08 ERA, 3.40 K/BB rate, 8.4 K/9) this season, Kikuchi still drew quite a bit of attention from Major League scouts. Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman recently wrote that “most teams have been to Japan to see him this year,” specifically naming the Royals, Padres, Dodgers, and Phillies as interested suitors. Evaluators from the Brewers, Giants, Red Sox, and Rangers also recently watched Kikuchi, as per the Kyodo News’ Jim Allen (Twitter link).
For an idea of what Kikuchi brings to the mound, Fangraphs’ Sung Min Kim provided a scouting report before the season, while MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi had a look at Kikuchi’s 2018 season back in August. Kikuchi has a strong slider and a fastball in the 92-94mph range (that has touched 98mph at its fastest) as his two primary pitches, and he has worked both a changeup and a curveball into his repertoire this season, as former big leaguer and current Rakuten Golden Eagles pitcher Frank Herrmann told Morosi. Herrmann warned that Kikuchi’s slider wasn’t as effective this year as it was in 2017, which led to Kikuchi leaning more heavily on his two secondary pitches. Kim used Patrick Corbin as a partial comp for Kikuchi, as another left-hander with a strong fastball-slider combination, with the caveat that Kikuchi’s usage of the curve roughly 10% of the time is a notable difference between he and the Diamondbacks hurler.
Kikuchi’s durability could also be an issue, as shoulder problems have bothered him at several points during his career, including this season. Kikuchi “had not reached the qualified amount of innings pitched in a season until 2016,” Kim writes. The southpaw is listed at just 6’0″ and 194 pounds, and thus doesn’t have the big frame that would more easily project as capable of handling a regular turn in a Major League rotation, so interested teams could be wary of how Kikuchi would hold up health-wise. That said, with more and more teams using their bullpens in creative ways, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Kikuchi eased the big leagues by pitching receiving an extra day of rest, working on a limited pitch count in starts, or any number of other possible answers if his shoulder is of particular concern.
Kikuchi first appeared on the Major League radar screen back in 2009, when he considered taking the unusual step of signing with an MLB team as an amateur rather than an NPB club. It’s interesting that several of the teams — the Dodgers, Rangers, Red Sox, and Giants — interested in Kikuchi almost a decade ago are still keeping an eye on him now, after he has established himself as a quality starter in Japanese baseball.
There was some thought earlier this year that Kikuchi could land a $100MM contract from a Major League team, though it’s possible that price tag has dropped thanks to the slight dip in form and the shoulder problems that Kikuchi dealt with over the 2018 season. Kikuchi’s age and experience makes him exempt from the international bonus pool system, so he is in line for a very lucrative multi-year contract rather than the limited deal that Shohei Ohtani had to settle for as a 23-year-old last winter.
Kikuchi also looks to be the first major name whose arrival in North American baseball will be covered by the new posting agreement between MLB and NPB. Under the former agreement, Japanese teams would receive a posting fee that maxed out at $20MM, whereas now teams will receive a posting fee that is determined by the size of the contract that the player signs with his new Major League team. Morosi notes that a player must be posted between November 1 and December 5, and the player will have a 30-day window to negotiate with teams after being posted.
Yankees can have the entire AL all star team and the fans would still say “ think the yanks will sign him”. Hate NY and it’s entire fan base
Irony coming from a Phills’ fan, Phills’ fans think they’ll sign every star, out of everyone here, the most.
In their defense, they are probably the most logical team out of any to add a star or two. Low payroll, tons of money, and a strong base of talent with contention in the near future just points to them bringing in big names.
Right this coming from a Phillies fan when your team signed Carlos Santana but had Rhys Hoskins come in late in the year and had a nice month or so. But you still signed Santana knowing that Hoskins was gonna be on the team
And you can make fun of me for being hypocritical, but wouldn’t u agree rotation is one spot Yanks need help? It makes sense.. but would require you to be objective to answer that
Ironic that all of those teams aren’t even worthy of Yankees scorn.
The Yankees have one long term commitment: Stanton. That leaves them with BILLIONS to spend, with a B at the front, and and S at the end, in the next five years.
So they’re gonna sign whoever they feel like signing. Guessing that, this winter, it’s gonna be Corbin (and then they’ll trade for MadBum), but it could be Kikuchi, if Corbin’s price goes too high.
Also, players WANT to sign for the Yankees. because the Yankees always try to field a competitive team. So yeah, when you’re a. willing to pay them, and b. willing to win, you’re gonna sign the best players on the market.
That’s only a reason to hate us when your team refuses to do the same.
Really? Billions to spend over the next few years (with a “B” and “s” which combined would sum up your post pretty well here)? Have you even done a quick mental check of the math on that? Ignoring the fact that they’ve already got $288M committed for the next 5 years, plus another good $130M+ potential in arbitration raises for Sanchez, Judge, Torres, Gregorius, Gray, Severino, Betances, Green, Frazier, Holder, Andujar, etc in that time, let’s just assume they have an absolutely clean slate.
$2B over 5 years is $400M per. I’m sorry, but even the Yankees don’t have that kind of money to spend on player payroll. Even if they did, you do realize that this would pretty close to double… DOUBLE… the luxury tax limit. In order to have a $400M payroll for more than 1 year, the Yankees would have to pay a luxury tax penalty of pretty close to $150M. There’s a reason that Hal Steinbrenner was outright forcing the team’s payroll budget back under the $220M range for quite a few years. Suggesting Hal would be willing to let them spend $550M is just… well… dumb.
And this is just the bare minimum required to reach multiple billions in payroll spending.
If you take an actual close look at the Yankees’ contractual payroll situation and estimates on arbitration raises and plausible exercised options, the Yankees have maybe $45-65M to spend for next year. This is a number which will most likely carry over for multiple years, and it pretty much all has to go toward pitching and maybe one or two bench bats.
Their spending $1B over the next 5 years might be plausible… but not multiple billions. This would also include everything that is not 100% committed in that time such as arbitration raises, exercised options, buyouts, any salaries they may decide to eat, salaries of trade acquisitions, and free agent signings.
The absolute earliest the Yankees might reach spending $2B in new payroll commitments is maybe 9 years from now. This is assuming Hal is willing to allow the payroll to jump 25-30% over the tax limit for several years in a row (and thus compounding the penalty annually).
As a Yankees fan, I don’t want this guy. I want them to re-sign Happ, sign Corbin and let CC go. Rotation of Tanaka, Severino, Happ, Corbin and Montgomery looks pretty good to me.
Monty won’t be back to begin the season. I am for giving one of the prospects a shot unless a reasonable deal can be reached for MadBum.
I know Montgomery won’t be back til June or July. They can get by with whomever until then as their 5th starter.
Yanks aren’t getting Bumgarner. I don’t even entertain that thought.
Normally I wouldn’t either but it will depend on the new GM in SF. It’s a small chance, but still a chance.
Why “hate” NY? Enjoy your team, you have a good young talented base. Would you want your history to match the Yankees in wins? If you are honest with yourself, probably yes. And for the record been a fan since 1964. So if because of the money spent you hate them. I guess the Dodgers and Ref Sox you also hate.
Dude you have the first comment…you were the first to bring up NY signing him lol
Sounds like another exciting player. My only concern is he seem injury prone. We have seen most asian pitchers struggle with injuries once they come to the US. That will probably impact how much teams are willing to pay him.
My only concern is his 6’0”, 194 pound build. He’s 27 though. Wish him nothing but success (even if Yanks don’t sign him) Curious what everyone thinks on contract he gets!
Kenta Maeda is only an inch taller but 20 pounds lighter, and he’s done just fine in MLB.
But he’s also been used in the bullpen and has had injuries as well
Other than the hip injury this year Maeda has only been skipped a few times the way nearly everybody in the Dodgers rotation has been skipped. They have used him in the bullpen late in the season the last two years. It’s a luxury, not a necessity. This idea that a starting pitcher has to be at least 6-4 and weigh 220 to be effective in the majors is really just a myth. The bigger challenge for starters coming over from NPB is the five-man rotation.
Pedro Martinez was a small guy.
giants ought to take a look….
Kei Igawa, Part II?
Perhaps, but Kikuchi has better stuff and velocity. He also has developed command and control of his pitches. Also, the NPB is better than it had been 11 years ago. It’s possible, but I think he’ll succeed here.
The lack of sunglasses is a positive, too.
yankees pls get thx
Yusei Kikuchi to future DL with mlb team with elbow trouble with overwork load.
A’s
As a Red Sox fan, I hope we are in consideration for him. Memories of Dice-K come to mind. Different kind of pitcher, but when he was on, Dice-K was extremely dominant.