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Yusei Kikuchi

Mets Notes: Luxury Tax, deGrom, Hand, Kikuchi, Nimmo

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The new collective bargaining agreement included a new penalty tier for teams that exceed the luxury tax ($230MM this season) by more than $60MM.  This tier was almost immediately nicknamed “the Steve Cohen tax,” in regards to how the Mets owner has been willing to spend to the utmost on upgrades for his team’s roster.  Cohen himself isn’t too worried about either the new tax threshold or being personally attached to it by name, telling The New York Daily News’ Deesha Thosar and other reporters that “the way I describe it is, it’s better than a bridge being named after you or something like that.”

While $290MM+ is “still a lot of money to spend on a payroll, I don’t feel like it’s so confining that I can’t live with it,” Cohen said, noting that the Mets will indeed “probably” exceed the top tax threshold.  Roster Resource projects that the Mets are already around the $285.5MM mark for this season’s tax number, and with some needs still left to address on the roster, it isn’t any surprise that Cohen isn’t suddenly putting the brakes on spending.  Since the Mets didn’t exceed the tax threshold last season, they would be penalized at the “first-timer” rate of 80 percent on the overage of any dollar spent beyond $290MM, plus their top pick in the 2022 draft would be moved back 10 places.

More from Queens…

  • Mets GM Billy Eppler and manager Buck Showalter spoke with reporters (including Deesha Thosar and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo) today, and the nature of those future roster reinforcements was one of the many topics discussed.  “I’d be fairly surprised if we went after another bat at this juncture,” Eppler said, as New York already added the likes of Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha prior the lockout.  Recent reports have suggested that, if anything, the Mets are trying to trade from their surplus of position players, with such names as J.D. Davis, Dominic Smith, and Jeff McNeil rumored to be available.
  • Jacob deGrom’s health was a major question mark last season, though Eppler said that he doesn’t have any concerns about the ace after consulting with the Mets training and coaching staff.  Showalter added that deGrom has also already thrown off a mound.  Minor nagging injuries and then a forearm strain limited deGrom to only 92 innings in 2021, and he didn’t pitch after July 7.  There were some conflicting messages from team president Sandy Alderson, former manager Luis Rojas, former acting GM Zack Scott, and deGrom himself about the exact nature of the injury, which naturally led to speculation over the offseason about deGrom’s status heading into 2022, given the ominous nature of forearm-related injuries.
  • With left-handed bullpen help a need, “Brad Hand is on the Mets’ radar,” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman writes.  Hand was claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays in September and he posted a 2.70 ERA over his 13 1/3 innings in New York, righting the ship to some extent after a rough and brief stint in Toronto.  It was still a difficult season overall for Hand, who had a 3.90 ERA over 64 2/3 combined frames with the Nationals, Jays, and Mets, and posted his worst strikeout rate (21.9%) since 2015.
  • The Mets had some interest in Yusei Kikuchi but “didn’t get far down the road” with the left-hander before he signed with the Blue Jays, SNY’s Andy Martino tweets.
  • Brandon Nimmo reiterated his interest in an extension with the Mets, and told Anthony DiComo and other reporters that he would happy to negotiate with the club during Spring Training.  Nimmo scheduled to hit free agency after the 2022 season, and while the Mets haven’t yet approached him about a new deal, it could be that the front office is simply busy with the early flurry of transaction possibilities now that the lockout is over.

Blue Jays To Sign Yusei Kikuchi

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The Blue Jays are signing left-handed pitcher Yusei Kikuchi, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. It’s a three-year, $36MM contract. (Twitter links) The deal is frontloaded, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, with Kikuchi earning a salary of $16MM in 2022, followed by $10MM in each of 2023 and 2024.

Starting pitching has been a hot commodity this offseason, with most of the top names signing before the lockout. Now that the transactions freeze has thawed, the market has picked up right where it left off. The top two free agent hurlers that lingered on the market through the lockout, Clayton Kershaw and Carlos Rodon, signed on the first full day after the lockout ended. That left Kikuchi and Zack Greinke as the only healthy starters remaining from MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents. With the Jays scooping up Kikuchi, that leaves Greinke as the last man standing.

Kikuchi has been one of the more difficult pitchers to evaluate since coming over from Japan prior to the 2019 season. In his first MLB season, he made 32 starts for the Mariners, throwing 161 2/3 innings with an ERA of 5.46 and a strikeout rate of just 16.1%. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he made nine starts and still had a high ERA of 5.11, but made huge strides in the strikeout department, bumping his rate up to 24.2%.

2021 was a tale of two seasons for Kikuchi, as the first half his campaign was excellent. At the start of July, MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote about Kikuchi’s season around the midway point, when Kikuchi had made 15 starts and was sitting on an ERA of 3.18, strikeout rate of 25.4%, walk rate of 8.5% and ground-ball rate of 53.8%. But things went completely in the opposite direction in the second half of the season, as Kikuchi threw 63 2/3 innings from that point on, with a 6.22 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate and 41.7% ground-ball rate.

As part of the unusual structure of Kikuchi’s contract, at the end of the season, the Mariners then had to decide whether or not to execute a series of four one-year options valued at $16.5MM each, effectively a four-year, $66MM extension that would cover the 2022-25 seasons. After they declined, then Kikuchi could have selected a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022. Though it seemed there was a chance he would accept that deal after his poor performance down the stretch, he ultimately declined and tested the free agent market. That has now proven to be a wise decision on his part, as he has earned himself a new contract at that exact rate but three times as long.

The Blue Jays were evidently encouraged enough by Kikuchi’s strengths to overlook his weaknesses, much like they were with Robbie Ray and Steven Matz. Although those two pitchers had serious flaws on their respective resumes, they both went on to have excellent campaigns with the Jays in 2021, with Ray earning the American League Cy Young award. Although Ray and Matz will both be wearing new uniforms this year, Kikuchi is still going to be joining a strong rotation. The club also added Kevin Gausman prior to the lockout, joining Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu and Alek Manoah. That is likely to be the club’s front five, but they also have Ross Stripling on hand, who could function either as a starter or long-man out of the bullpen. Nate Pearson could potentially join the rotation at some point, though he has durability concerns after throwing just 18 innings in 2020 and just 45 2/3 in 2021.

After the lockout, the 2022 season is going to feature a condensed Spring Training and a regular season with added double-headers to make up for the delayed start to the campaign. Those factors, combined with the dwindling options in the free agent market, led the Jays to take a risk by bolstering their depth with a pitcher who has had flashes of excellence but also definite concerns.

As for the structure of the deal, it’s worth pointing out that the Blue Jays also front-loaded their contract with George Springer. This seems to be a way of taking advantage of the fact that most of the club’s core players are still working their way through arbitration and will only get increasingly expensive in the coming years. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is arbitration eligible for the first time this year as a Super Two player. Teoscar Hernandez will be playing his second of three arbitration seasons in 2022. Bo Bichette and Jordan Romano won’t be arbitration eligible until next year. By paying Springer and Kikuchi more now, the club will have a little bit extra wiggle room to weather the increasing salaries of those players in the coming seasons.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Free Agent Notes: Rodon, Kikuchi, Correa, Soler

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News of the finally-ratified Collective Bargaining Agreement is dominating headlines, with good reason, but some free agent leads had quietly emerged during the final hours of CBA negotiations. Notably, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that the Yankees had requested and received medicals for free agent pitchers Carlos Rodon and Yusei Kikuchi prior to the lockout. Heyman notes that the Yankees have received the medicals of free agent shortstop Carlos Correa as well, though disclaims that the team already has “two good shortstop prospects”, referring to touted youngsters Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza.

It has been speculated for some time that the Yankees minor league depth may impede their run at baseball’s top free agent, but their interest in Rodon and Kikuchi appears more straightforward. Despite possessing a high-upside stable of arms behind Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery, the Bronx rotation has no shortage of risk baked into it. Signing either Rodon or Kikuchi would add a similar high-risk, high-reward pitcher to the mix however, as these free agent targets dealt with injury and ineffectiveness down the stretch, respectively. Still, with a much higher luxury tax threshold to work with clubs like the Yankees are further incentivized to sign as many playoff-caliber arms as they can to see who sticks.

Some more free agent leads to usher in the post-lockout world…

  • Piggybacking off of Heyman’s tweet, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North reports that the Twins have received medicals on Rodon and Kikuchi as well. Per Wolfson, the Twins are still searching for “multiple arms, starters and relievers” which should come as little surprise to fans who have followed Minnesota’s offseason to date. A Rodon signing would likely represent an uncharacteristically large splash for the Twins, though it should be noted they’ve shown interest in high-risk pitchers in the past, to say nothing of their interest in Rodon last offseason.
  • Another free agent generating buzz is Jorge Soler, who Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports has received interest from more than six clubs. Now that the universal DH has been implemented Feinsand speculates that Soler will see his list of suitors grow. That theory certainly checks out on paper, as Soler has sported a useful 117 OPS+ since 2019, though his glovework during that same stretch has been decidedly below average.

Latest On Mets’ Post-Lockout Plans

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The Mets have already had one of the most active offseasons of any team, signing Max Scherzer to a record-setting contract and inking a trio of bats — Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar — to multi-year deals. The combined outlay on that quartet of additions was $254.5MM, pushing the team’s payroll to a projected $263MM (via Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez).

SNY’s Andy Martino wrote last week that the Mets are likely to target more rotation help — listing Yusei Kikuchi as one candidate — but have likely completed most of the heavy lifting on the position-player side of the roster. Sports Illustrated’s Pat Ragazzo tweets today that pitching is indeed expected to be the team’s priority, while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that the team isn’t completely closed off to bringing in another impact hitter. A payroll approaching $300MM isn’t out of the question in Queens, Heyman notes.

A pitching addition would be far more straightforward than signing another bat. The quartet of Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker is immensely talented but also laden with injury risk. Fifth starter candidates David Peterson and Tylor Megill are solid enough options, but as currently constructed, the Mets would be one injury away from needing to lean on both (and two away from having to tap into a shaky group of Triple-A options).

Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw stand out as two of the most prominent starters who have yet to sign, though Martino noted last week when linking the Mets to Kikuchi that they did not have any contact with Kershaw’s camp prior to the lockout. There are, of course, myriad trade scenarios to consider as well. The A’s (Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt) and Reds (Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Luis Castillo) have starters who could conceivably change hands. The Padres have a wealth of young arms if the Mets are simply looking to add some depth, as they did last year when acquiring the now-injured Joey Lucchesi from San Diego.

On the pitching side of the coin, things are far muddier for the Mets — due in no small part to that aforementioned pre-lockout spending spree. The advent of a universal designated hitter might help to alleviate any logjams, but Mets already have crowded outfield and infield pictures alike. Marte, Canha Brandon Nimmo figure to get the bulk of the work in the outfield, while the infield mix will feature Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano, Francisco Lindor, Escobar and Jeff McNeil. Beyond that group of nine, the Mets have both J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith as capable corner options in the infield/outfield mix.

There’s already talk that the Amazins will be open to moving McNeil and/or Smith once the lockout lifts, which would make some sense given the lack of regular at-bats available. McNeil, Smith and Davis (more on him here) seem to be the likeliest change-of-scenery candidates, and moving multiple names from that group could pave the way for another addition.

With such a crowded roster already in place, there isn’t necessarily one glaring position the Mets need to feel compelled to shop. If the team is comfortable with Cano and Luis Guillorme logging the bulk of the work at second base, for instance, that’d free up the ability to trade McNeil and perhaps add an impact bat who could primarily serve as a DH (e.g. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Nelson Cruz). The Mets could also play Escobar at second base in that scenario and pursue help at the hot corner. Frankly, with so many players who have experience at multiple positions, Mets fans could dream on innumerable speculative scenarios. Martino has even suggested that despite having signed multiple outfielders, a Mets pursuit of Seiya Suzuki cannot be expressly ruled out.

Today’s reports don’t necessarily indicate anything that contradicts prior reporting but rather serve to reinforce the idea that the Mets aren’t likely to rest on their laurels after an active November/December. Pitching still seems likeliest to be the focus of their efforts, but the potential trades of some combination of McNeil, Smith and Davis could leave the team with the flexibility to add a bat of note — particularly if one of the prominent sluggers on the market is struggling to find a deal to his liking. Owner Steve Cohen certainly has the financial chops to swoop in and opportunistically sign such a free agent to a pillow deal, at the very least.

Blue Jays Ready To Spend After Lockout

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A recent report from Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith gives Toronto fans something to look forward to after MLB’s lockout draws to a close. In addition to having trade discussions prior to the league’s halt on transactions, the Jays reportedly also have money to spend on additional free agents. Nicholson-Smith identifies acquiring an infielder and additional pitching as remaining needs for the club.

It was already expected that the Blue Jays would raise their payroll coming off a highly encouraging 2021 season, but the offseason to date has offered mixed signals about how high the payroll can stretch. Despite handing out a big dollar contract to Kevin Gausman (and a smaller dollar contract to Yimi Garcia) the organization has already seen its three top free agents sign for rich contracts elsewhere.

The Jays ended the 2021 season with $154MM in payroll obligations, per Cot’s Contracts. Including arbitration projections, RosterResource currently places the Toronto payroll, for luxury tax purposes, at $161MM.  Nicholson-Smith’s report, though, indicates that the $161MM mark can continue to be pushed further.

It’s also worth noting that the Jays most likely trade chips coming into the offseason were thought to be of the catcher variety. Numerous teams have now picked the catcher market clean, with the Yankees and perhaps the Guardians as the only remaining contenders with questions at the position. An intra-division trade seems unlikely and the Blue Jays certainly have non-catcher prospect capital to deal from, but a lack of demand for one of Toronto’s most abundant resources may drive them to upgrade via free agency.

Fortunately for the 91-win team, the free agent market still has options for a front office looking to upgrade its infield. Kris Bryant and, if he’s open to a position change, Trevor Story can be had at the right price to cover third base. If Toronto is aiming for a more modest expenditure, they can also target the lefty-batting Kyle Seager or reunite with switch-hitting Jonathan Villar to compliment Santiago Espinal at the hot corner. These latter two options would serve as insurance in case Espinal is unable to build on his strong 2021 performance or Cavan Biggio fails to bounce back.

The pitching market is less flush with options but continues to carry upside at various price points. Carlos Rodon and Kenley Jansen represent two players who, for a premium, can help anchor a rotation and bullpen, respectively. Looking into Danny Duffy or old friend Ryan Tepera would serve a similar function for a lower cost, should the Jays prefer to splash their funds around more evenly.

Of course, just yesterday it was reported that Toronto expressed interest in left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (courtesy of MLB Network’s Jon Heyman). For reference on how much the lefty may cost, MLBTR predicted a two-year $20MM contract for the starting pitcher. Yesterday’s report portrayed a competitive market for the lefty, however, with multiple three-year offers potentially shifting the projected amount it may take to sign Kikuchi. Regardless of who baseball’s best team north of the border pursues, it’s clear they will be active when they’re next able.

Blue Jays, Mets Among Teams Interested In Yusei Kikuchi

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6:20 PM: Though he doesn’t have specifics on offers made by the Mets and Jays, Heyman further reports that Kikuchi has multiple three-year offers on the table. Whether those offers are from either Toronto or New York — or whether he signs before the near-certain lockout in a few hours — remains to be seen.

9:58 AM: The starting pitching market has been red hot of late as teams have been trying to bolster their rotations before the current CBA expires tonight, which is widely expected to lead to a lockout and transaction freeze. One intriguing name that remains available is Yusei Kikuchi. The lefty has attracted the attention of the Blue Jays, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, as well as the Mets, per Andy Martino of SNY.

Kikuchi, 30, is one of the more difficult pitchers to value on the market. After a dominant run in Japan’s NPB over eight seasons, Kikuchi was signed by the Mariners but struggled in his first MLB season in 2019. In 161 2/3 innings that year, his ERA was 5.46, along with a ground ball rate of 44% and meager strikeout rate of 16.1%. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he dropped his ERA only slightly, to 5.17. However, his strikeout rate jumped to 24.2% and his groundball rate to 52%, perhaps indicating that better results were ahead.

For the first few months of 2021, Kikuchi seemed to hit his stride. By July, he was pitching so well that it seemed the Mariners had a tough decision on their hands, as explored by MLBTR’s Steve Adams. At that time, Kikuchi had an ERA of 3.18, strikeout rate of 25.4% and 53.8% grounder rate. It started to seem possible that the club could trigger a four-year option over Kikuchi, that would pay him $66MM for the 2022-2025 seasons. However, Kikuchi faded down the stretch, posting a 6.22 ERA, 23.3 strikeout rate and 10.3 BB% from July 7th onward, getting bumped from the rotation before the season ended. In the end, the Mariners passed on their option, leaving Kikuchi to decide whether or not to trigger a $13MM player option for the 2022 season. Despite his sluggish finish this year, he decided to leave that money on the table and test free agency. MLBTR ranked him 34th among this year’s free agents, predicting a contract of $20MM over two years.

The Blue Jays’ rotation took a couple of hits in recent weeks, as Robbie Ray and Steven Matz departed for the Mariners and Cardinals, respectively. However, they mitigated the damage somewhat by signing Kevin Gausman to slot in next to Jose Berrios, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Alek Manoah. Although they have options for the fifth slot, such as Ross Stripling, Nate Pearson and Thomas Hatch, Stripling has often been used as a swingman out of the bullpen, while Pearson and Hatch are still young and dealt with injuries in 2021. Adding Kikuchi could bump those options to the bullpen or the minors and improve the overall depth of the staff.

The Mets have been one of the most active teams in free agency lately, going on a spending spree that included the pickups of Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. That has pushed the team’s 2022 payroll to a massive $263MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Prior to Steve Cohen purchasing the team a year ago, the franchise record payroll was $158MM in 2019. To sign Kikuchi, they would likely have to continue pushing their budget to new record-breaking levels. If they are willing to do so, Kikuchi would add an extra safety net to a rotation that is high on talent but which also has injury concerns, as Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco both missed significant time in 2021. Scherzer, deGrom, Carrasco and Taijuan Walker would take up four rotation spots, if healthy, with younger options like Tylor Megill and David Peterson on hand as likely candidates for the backend.

Yusei Kikuchi To Decline Player Option, Test Free Agency

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Mariners left-hander Yusei Kikuchi has told the team that he is declining his $13MM player option for the 2022 season, according to The Athletic’s Corey Brock (Twitter link).  The southpaw will now enter the free agent market after three seasons in Seattle.

As per the unusual structure of Kikuchi’s contract, the Mariners had until Friday to decide whether or not to exercise four years’ worth of $16.5MM club options for the lefty covering the 2022-25 seasons — effectively, a four-year/$66MM extension.  If the Mariners declined to pick up those options, Kikuchi could then opt into the 2022 season via his $13MM player option.

Today’s news indicates that the M’s have indeed passed on those four option years, which isn’t a shock considering the inconsistent nature of Kikuchi’s 2021 season.  However, earlier reports suggested that Kikuchi would exercise his player option, making his decision to hit the open market something of a surprise.

2021 was the best of Kikuchi’s three MLB campaigns, as he posted a 4.41 ERA, 48.4% grounder rate, and an above-average 24.5% strikeout rate over 157 innings for Seattle.  The underlying Statcast metrics weren’t nearly as solid, as Kikuchi’s hard contact numbers were among the worst of any pitcher in the league, and this issue eventually caught up to Kikuchi as the season went on.  After posting a 3.48 ERA over 98 1/3 IP in the first half and earning a spot on the AL All-Star team, Kikuchi’s ERA blew up to 5.98 over 58 2/3 frames in the second half.

While not the best platform season for a free agent, Kikuchi and his representatives at The Boras Corporation must think that the 30-year-old can land a solid multi-year deal on the open market.  It isn’t a far-out argument, considering that teams are always in need of starting pitching.  All it takes is one suitor to see some untapped potential in Kikuchi, or perhaps he could be seen as a change-of-scenery candidate.  The left-hander has a 4.97 ERA over his 365 2/3 innings in Major League Baseball, yet with some flashes of better performance (i.e. the first half of 2021, and how Kikuchi’s peripherals in 2020 generally outperformed his real-world numbers).

Other factors could also be at play, beyond just Kikuchi’s desire to land a larger contract.  Speculatively, a return to Japan might not be out of the question, if Kikuchi wished to once again pitch in Nippon Professional Baseball.  Kikuchi was one of NPB’s top pitchers before making the jump to North America, and he would likely find no shortage of interest from the Seibu Lions (his old team) or another Japanese team if he returned to his home country.

From the Mariners’ perspective, they now have a hole in the rotation to fill, though Kikuchi projected as a third starter at best considering how his 2021 season ended.  The M’s were already expected to be targeting starting pitching this winter, and they now have an extra $13MM to work with in their offseason pursuits.  Seattle has less than $57MM committed to their 2022 payroll, and GM Jerry Dipoto has said that ownership has okayed the front office to increase spending following the team’s 90-win season.

Yusei Kikuchi Likely To Exercise Player Option For 2022

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The Mariners’ original signing of Yusei Kikuchi provided the left-hander with one of the more unconventional option scenarios in recent memory. The team can exercise a four-year, $66MM extension option after the current season, and if the Mariners turn down that effective extension clause, he’ll have a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022 season.

It looked like an intriguing dilemma for the Mariners midway through the season, when Kikuchi had made the All-Star team and was in the midst of what looked like a breakout campaign. However, the left-hander faded down the stretch to the extent that it now looks likelier that the Mariners will decline their portion of the option. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports that if the Mariners indeed decline to pick up the additional four years of Kikuchi, the pitcher plans to exercise his portion of the deal, setting him up for a fourth season in Seattle and a $13MM salary.

Back in early July, I took a lengthy look at the situation at what was perhaps the peak point of Kikuchi’s season. At the time, he carried a 3.18 ERA with a 25.4 percent strikeout rate, an 8.5 percent walk rate and a career-high 53.8 percent grounder rate. Kikuchi’s average fastball jumped immensely from 2019 in his second and third big league seasons, and he was missing bats more than ever with career-best command. He’d held opponents to three or fewer runs in 13 of 15 starts and rattled off a 2.33 ERA over his past 11 starts — averaging 6 1/3 frames per outing along the way.

Things almost immediately took a turn for the worse, as Kikuchi yielded a combined 12 runs over his next two starts and never fully regained his footing. There were still some strong starts mixed in along the way, including seven shutout frames against the Astros on Aug. 31, but Kikuchi pitched to a collective 6.22 ERA over his final 14 outings. His strikeout rate dipped slightly (23.3 percent), his walk rate rose (10.3 percent) and his ground-ball rate plummeted from that 53.8 percent mark all the way down to 41.7 percent. Unsurprisingly, the huge uptick on balls hit in the air against Kikuchi prompted his home-run rate to spike as well (1.70 HR/9 in those final 14 starts).

The end result doesn’t necessarily look that bad on paper. Kikuchi totaled 157 innings and notched a 4.41 ERA with a roughly average strikeout rate, a worse-than-average walk rate and an above-average ground-ball rate. Taken in its entirety, it was a respectable overall season. And if Kikuchi had flipped things around, starting with those ugly 14 starts before more or less dominating in his final 15, we’d be viewing the option decision quite differently even though the end results would look exactly the same.

There’s a case to be made that perhaps Kikuchi could exceed that $13MM he’s guaranteed on the player option by declining and seeking a multi-year deal at a lower annual rate. We’ve seen plenty of two-year contracts in the $16-20MM range for veteran arms with comparable bottom-line numbers and less-impressive combinations of strikeout rate and ground-ball tendencies. That said, he likely wouldn’t exceed that $13MM salary by much, so it’s not a huge surprise that on the heels of a dismal second half, he’d lock that salary in and hope to position himself for a stronger trip to the market in the 2022-23 offseason.

Looking to the Mariners’ payroll, they may not consider paying Kikuchi $13MM next year to be ideal, but it’s hardly a backbreaker. The only guaranteed contracts on the books are Marco Gonzales ($5.5MM), Ken Giles ($5MM in what will be his return season from 2020 Tommy John surgery), Chris Flexen ($2.75MM) and Evan White ($1.4MM). They hold a $20MM club option on Kyle Seager that Divish and others have suggested is likely to be bought out, and the Mariners will also pay $3.75MM to the Mets under the previous Robinson Cano trade. They’ll be looking at arbitration raises for Mitch Haniger, J.P. Crawford, Paul Sewald and Diego Castillo, among others, but Haniger’s $3.01MM salary from 2021 is the highest starting point for any of those raises. None should break the bank.

Seattle only opened the 2021 season with a payroll in the $74MM range, but from 2017-19 the M’s averaged an Opening Day payroll of roughly $152.9MM. Recently promoted president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has already said that ownership has authorized him to increase payroll next year, and with such a light slate of commitments on the books, a returning Kikuchi at $13MM shouldn’t prove too much of a detriment.

Mariners Notes: Kikuchi, Anderson, Gilbert

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The Mariners are poised for one of their most active offseasons in years, with their recent retooling effort having reached its conclusion. Before turning their attention to outside acquisitions, they’ll have to determine whether to retain a few of their own key players. This morning, MLBTR’s Steve Adams covered their looming decision regarding Kyle Seager, and Seattle will also have some notable calls to make on the pitching side.

Yusei Kikuchi, the team’s All-Star representative, could hit the open market. The team has to decide on a four-year, $66MM package deal of conjoined club options this winter. If the club declines to make that long-term commitment, Kikuchi will either exercise his own $13MM option to return in 2022 or choose to test free agency.

Entering the season, the team exercising the options looked like a long shot. Kikuchi then got off to the best start of his three-year MLB career, seemingly making that a tougher call for the front office, as Steve explored here in early July. Over the season’s first half, the 30-year-old worked to a 3.48 ERA across 98 1/3 innings, en route to the aforementioned All-Star selection. He’s struggled mightily over the past couple months, though, with just a 6.04 ERA in 47 2/3 frames. The southpaw’s strikeout rate has dipped a couple percentage points relative to the season’s first few months, while his walk rate has spiked. He’s also been tagged for eleven home runs in his last ten starts as his rate of hard contact allowed has ticked up.

Given those recent struggles, the odds the club picks up Kikuchi’s options look to be dwindling, writes Corey Brock of the Athletic. That’s not particularly surprising, as the southpaw now owns a 4.32 ERA with league average strikeout and walk rates (24.3% and 9.3%, respectively) over the course of the season. Paired with his subpar showings in 2019-20, making that level of long-term commitment to Kikuchi would seem quite risky, even for a club with ample payroll space.

Declining the options would give Kikuchi the chance to become the third Mariners’ starter to hit the open market, joining James Paxton and Tyler Anderson. Seattle could be motivated to bring Anderson back, as he’s fared well since being acquired from the Pirates in a midseason deal. Over eight starts, the southpaw has a 3.83 ERA, offsetting a below-average 18.1% strikeout percentage with a very low 3.7% walk rate. Anderson tells Brock he’d have interest in re-signing with Seattle, and M’s manager Scott Servais said he’s “very intrigued” about the possibility of a reunion, opining that Anderson “would be a good fit going forward.”

Anderson has posted back-to-back reliable seasons. Since the start of 2020, the 31-year-old has a 4.25 ERA in 207 2/3 innings. He hasn’t missed many bats, but he throws plenty of strikes and has done fairly well to avoid damaging contact. It’s possible he and his representatives look for a multi-year deal this offseason, but Anderson was limited to a one-year, $2.5MM guarantee last winter and has split this season between two clubs with pitcher-friendly home ballparks.

In addition to augmenting the group in free agency, the Mariners could look into a long-term deal with one of their pitchers already under team control. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that Seattle offered righty Logan Gilbert an extension last September, which the former first-round pick declined. Rosenthal doesn’t suggest there are any plans for a future offer in the near future, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the front office decides to make another effort at some point.

Gilbert had yet to make his big league debut at the time of the M’s offer, but he’s since made his first twenty starts. While the 24-year-old only has a 5.10 ERA, his peripherals have been far more encouraging. Gilbert’s 26% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk percentage are each a few points better than the league average, as is his 12.7% swinging strike rate. The front office is likely as bullish as ever on the young starter’s long-term outlook.

While Gilbert reached the majors this year, his mid-May promotion was late enough in the season that he won’t accrue a full year of service time. He won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season, although his promotion should enable him to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player over the 2023-24 offseason (assuming the existing service time structure survives this winter’s collective bargaining negotiations). No starting pitcher in the 0-1 year service class has signed an extension since Chris Archer’s April 2014 deal with the Rays. With nothing of recent precedent, it could be difficult for the sides to line up on a mutually agreeable price point.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

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