On Saturday, we took a look at which pending free-agent starters had the most successful regular seasons in terms of velocity, strikeouts, walks, generating ground balls and inducing weak contact. We’ll do the same here with relievers who are scheduled to become free agents in a few weeks (once again, thanks to MLBTR’s Steve Adams for coming up with this method a year ago and to FanGraphs for supplying such invaluable data).
To qualify, a reliever must have thrown at least 20 innings this past regular season. Notably, we’re leaving Sean Doolittle, Mark Melancon, Pedro Strop and Brandon Kintzler off the list. Everyone from that group has either a team option or an opt-out for 2019 (or both in Kintzler’s case), but it appears highly unlikely any will hit free agency. On the other hand, just to be safe, we are including Milwaukee’s Joakim Soria, Oakland’s Fernando Rodney and the White Sox’s Nate Jones.
Soria and the Brewers will have to decide on a $10MM mutual option, but he may instead return to free agency on the heels of a strong season. Both Rodney’s age (42 in March) and the Athletics’ low payroll seem to increase the odds of them buying out the journeyman for $250K instead of exercising his $4.25MM option. Jones has a similarly affordable option ($4.65MM), so it’s hard to imagine the White Sox cutting ties with him in favor of a $1.25MM buyout, but perhaps his history of injuries will convince the team to go in another direction. (The guess is he’ll remain with the White Sox, but we’ll err on the side of caution.)
Hardest Throwers (FanGraphs leaderboard)
League average = 93.4 mph
- Joe Kelly: 98.1 mph fastball velocity
- Nate Jones: 97.2 mph
- Craig Kimbrel: 97.1 mph
- Kelvin Herrera: 96.5 mph
- Jeurys Familia: 96.2 mph
- Ryan Madson: 95.8 mph
- John Axford: 95.6 mph
- Daniel Hudson: 95.4 mph
- Zach McAllister: 95.2 mph
- Fernando Rodney: 95.2 mph
Top Strikeout Arms (FanGraphs leaderboard)
League average = 23.2 K%, 8.95 K/9
- Craig Kimbrel: 38.9 K%, 13.86 K/9
- Adam Ottavino: 36.3 K%, 12.98 K/9
- David Robertson: 32.2 K%, 11.76 K/9
- Tyler Clippard: 30.2 K%, 11.17 K/9
- Joakim Soria: 29.4 K%, 11.13 K/9
- Andrew Miller: 29.2 K%, 11.91 K/9
- Justin Wilson: 29.2 K%, 11.36 K/9
- Tony Sipp: 27.8 K%, 9.78 K/9
- Cody Allen: 27.7 K%, 10.75 K/9
- Jeurys Familia: 27.5 K%, 10.38 K/9
Fewest Walks (FanGraphs leaderboard)
League average = 9.3 BB%, 3.57 BB/9
- Jesse Chavez: 4.5 BB%, 1.6 BB/9
- Tony Barnette: 4.8 BB%, 1.71 BB/9
- Zach McAllister: 5.0 BB%, 2.0 BB/9
- Kelvin Herrera: 5.5 BB%, 2.03 BB/9
- Shawn Kelley: 5.8 BB%, 2.02 BB/9
- Sergio Romo: 6.1 BB%, 2.3 BB/9
- Joakim Soria: 6.3 BB%, 2.37 BB/9
- Matt Belisle: 6.8 BB%, 2.88 BB/9
- Ryan Madson: 6.9 BB%, 2.73 BB/9
- Jim Johnson: 7.6 BB%, 2.9 BB/9
Highest Groundball Rates (FanGraphs leaderboard)
League average = 43.5 percent
- Zach Britton: 73.0 percent
- Brad Ziegler: 71.1 percent
- Zach Duke: 59.4 percent
- John Axford: 53.4 percent
- Tony Barnette: 51.2 percent
- Peter Moylan and Blaine Boyer: 51.2 percent
- Jorge De La Rosa: 50.9 percent
- Jim Johnson: 49.2 percent
- Jake Diekman: 47.8 percent
- Andrew Miller: 47.7 percent
Least Hard Contact Allowed (FanGraphs leaderboard)
League average = 34.8 percent
- Adam Ottavino: 25.3 percent
- Joakim Soria: 25.9 percent
- Tony Sipp: 26.3 percent
- John Axford: 26.4 percent
- Craig Kimbrel: 27.1 percent
- Justin Wilson: 28.4 percent
- Jeurys Familia: 28.6 percent
- Ryan Madson: 28.7 percent
- Zach Britton: 28.8 percent
- Zach Duke: 29.0 percent
No surprise, but Kimbrel figures prominently here. After enjoying yet another excellent regular season, during which he racked up 42 saves in 47 chances and posted a 2.74 ERA, the 30-year-old is poised to to sign one of the richest deals in the history of relievers. He’s joined by several other high-end options (Ottavino, Robertson, Familia and Britton, to name only a few) who should garner notable paydays on the open market. For teams that can’t afford the top relievers available, some of the less exciting names above may carry appeal as reclamation projects. Madson, for instance, had a horrid year with respect to run prevention (5.47 ERA in 52 2/3 innings), but he’s coming off a standout season in terms of velo, walks and weak contact. The 38-year-old also brings an impressive track record to the table.
I throw up at the sight of seeing the name of Zach Duke.
Yankees and Dodgers should get half of these guys.
Sounds about right
The Yankees? They could use maybe one. They need SP
I think Adam Ottavino will be the best reliever for the money. He doesn’t get enough credit in Colorado
Not if you look at the Rockies in the playoffs, contenders go after proven playoff relief pitchers. Kimbrel, Britton, Allen, Miller, and Robertson are the top ones.
Ottavino and Kimbrel should both be the top two on the Angels list this offseason. Along with finding new homes for, Skaggs, Heaney, Rameriz, Parker and Cam.
I like Ottavino but ditching Heaney and Skaggs leaves an entire rotation to fill.
Skaggs is always on the DL. So will losing him really matter? Heaney had 1 road win, with a road era of around 6. If they can package them together and get a starter than can stay healthy, that would make more sense. Than going into the season with, well if they can stay healthy and pitch to their expectations, the Angels have a chance.
Sorry, but getting rid of Heaney is a horrible idea.
Yes getting rid of a pitcher who had an era of almost 6 on the road, with one road win is a bad idea. So the Rangers should pick up the option on Matt Moore. The Yankees should keep Gray in their starting rotation, because his 7 home era doesn’t hurt the team at all.
Not an Astro in the group. That’s great news for them!!
You sure about that?
Tony Sipp
Great news indeed, they even get to keep the woman beater (Osuna).
He was quitted
“Quitted”? Not exactly…”The woman Osuna is alleged to have assaulted lives in Mexico and made clear she would not travel to Toronto to testify. Major League Baseball suspended Osuna without pay for 75 games for violating its domestic violence policy.”
Some bright, forward thinking out-of the-box GM (Billy Beane? David Sterns?) will realize relievers are too expensive and start building (besides the obvious Scherzer/deGrom guys) tandem starters…..
Relievers are too expensive, especially considering their volatility. The halos need pitching (more so SP) but I’d be afraid to give any of these guys big money/multi year deals. Which of the group can boast an upward trend with little to no health problems over the last 2 yrs? For the money I’d rather roll the dice on Rosenthal or Joe Kelly
I wonder what kind of market Miller will have. I’d love for New York to sign him again, but with his injuries this past season he may be on the downward path of his career
Angels definitely need bullpen help, but probably only one decent name. Eppler probably won’t set the market, but I hope he gets Familia or Britton.
Ryan Madson is done.
Okay, I guess I was a bit hasty in my assessment of Madson. 🙂
Why are comments deleted/censored when there is absolutely nothing inappropriate or inflammatory? Just came back to this thread to see 1/2 the replies gone.
Yet they allowed your women beater comment?
Like word association, Domestic violence and Osuna go hand in hand…
The tribe should go all this offseason and sign Kimbrel and Ottavino
They made their deal for Hand, so I doubt they spend on a closer.