With the MLB offseason only a few weeks away, most of the league’s teams are already focusing on how to improve their rosters for 2019. Many of those clubs will look to free agency to repair their starting rotations, though only a few will land the top arms who are expected to be available in Clayton Kershaw (if he opts out of the two years and $65MM remaining on his deal), Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel. Nevertheless, as you’ll see below, there should be some intriguing starters on the market who may be able to offer solid production at lesser costs next year.
Following the method MLBTR’s Steve Adams came up with last year, here are the top free agents-to-be with respect to velocity, missing bats, limiting walks and inducing weak contact in 2018. The list includes Kershaw, who seems likely to opt out, and also features several hurlers who pitched out of their teams’ bullpens in 2018. However, the numbers they compiled in relief aren’t factored in here. (Special thanks to FanGraphs for providing such valuable, easily accessible information.)
Hardest Throwers (FanGraphs leaderboard)
League average = 92.4 mph
- Nathan Eovaldi: 97.2 mph fastball
- Charlie Morton: 96.6 mph
- Garrett Richards: 95.9 mph (note: Richards underwent Tommy John surgery in July)
- Matt Harvey: 94.1 mph
- Lance Lynn: 93.1 mph
- Martin Perez: 92.5 mph
- J.A. Happ and Francisco Liriano: 92 mph
- Trevor Cahill and Matt Moore: 91.8 mph
- Derek Holland: 91.5 mph
- Jason Hammel: 91.4 mph
Top Strikeout Arms (FanGraphs Leaderboard)
League average = 21.6 K percentage, 8.25 K/9
- Patrick Corbin: 30.8 K%, 11.07 K/9
- Charlie Morton: 28.9 K%, 10.83 K/9
- Hyun-Jin Ryu: 27.5 K%, 9.73 K/9
- Garrett Richards: 26.9 K%, 10.26 K/9
- J.A. Happ: 26.3 K%, 9.78 K/9
- Anibal Sanchez: 24.6 K%, 8.96 K/9
- Clayton Kershaw: 23.9 K%, 8.65 K/9
- Lance Lynn: 22.7 K%, 9.16 K/9
- Trevor Cahill: 22.5 K%, 8.32 K/9
- Derek Holland: 22.3 K%, 8.52 K/9
Fewest Walks (FanGraphs leaderboard)
League average = 8.0 BB percentage, 3.03 BB/9
- Nathan Eovaldi: 4.1 BB%, 1.51 BB/9
- Bartolo Colon: 4.2 BB%, 1.61 BB/9
- Clayton Kershaw: 4.5 BB/%, 1.62 BB/9
- Hyun-Jin Ryu: 4.6 BB%, 1.64 BB/9
- Matt Harvey: 5.1 BB%, 1.93 BB/9
- Jeremy Hellickson: 5.4 BB%, 1.97 BB/9
- Clay Buchholz: 5.6 BB%, 2.01 BB/9
- Patrick Corbin: 6.0 BB%, 2.16 BB/9
- Doug Fister: 6.6 BB%, 2.59 BB/9
- Dallas Keuchel: 6.6 BB%, 2.55 BB/9
Highest Groundball Rates (FanGraphs leaderboard)
League average = 43 percent
- Trevor Cahill and Dallas Keuchel: 53.7 percent
- Wade Miley: 52.8 percent
- Doug Fister: 50.4 percent
- Lance Lynn: 50 percent
- Martin Perez: 49.4 percent
- Garrett Richards: 49.3 percent
- Adam Wainwright: 48.7 percent
- Patrick Corbin: 48.5 percent
- Francisco Liriano: 48.3 percent
- Clayton Kershaw: 47.9 percent
Least Hard Contact (FanGraphs leaderboard)
League average = 35.6 percent
- Jeremy Hellickson: 26.4 percent
- Adam Wainwright: 26.5 percent
- Dallas Keuchel: 28.1 percent
- Anibal Sanchez: 28.3 percent
- CC Sabathia: 28.5 percent
- Charlie Morton: 29.8 percent
- Marco Estrada: 29.9 percent
- J.A. Happ: 30.9 percent
- Gio Gonzalez: 31.7 percent
- Nathan Eovaldi: 33.2 percent
Many of the starters above won’t fetch big-money contracts this offseason, nor did they land high-paying deals last winter. Eovaldi, who’s still pitching with the title-contending Red Sox, has posted encouraging production in his first action since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016. Meanwhile, Lynn, Liriano, Cahill, Holland, Miley, Sanchez, Colon, Hellickson, Buchholz, Fister, Sabathia and Estrada are all coming off either one-year major league contracts or minor league deals. At least a few of those pitchers recorded quality numbers this past regular season, showing that you don’t necessarily need to splurge in free agency to upgrade your rotation.
Corbin and Happ are going to be Yankees next season. Book it.
Yankees fans, smh… pick out the some of the best free agents and assume they’re yours.
Thought u were a “baseball nerd”…
Cant recognize NY troll, from fan, when you see 1?
He’s a troll. Anyone on this website for more than a couple months should know.
1600… that may be true but I don’t see thinking that resigning Happ and signing Corbin (who has expressed interest in joining the Yankees) as trolling.
“(who has expressed interest in joining the Yankees)” That’s exactly what I’ve been saying all season, yet I’ve been getting flack from guys like #baseballnerddom. All they have to to is look it up, but they’ll still make absurd posts like his.
*to do
Because they are…HA
Like that. Still need one more unless they try Gray again. Not so sure any of the prospects are up to the task yet.
Yankees don’t have the biggest wallet anymore. You can stand in line behind the Dodgers like everyone else now.
We all know the weed is legal on the left coast, but get real Drew.
Yanks will have 100 million to spend this winter, Corbin will be on their radar, and either Happ or Eovaldi.
Well considering that the Dodgers, Yankees And giants all reset their tax, they’re should be big spending for all 3. The only hiccup on n that is if the giants new gm tightens the purse strings.
If he’s doing his job he won’t need to spend on that and should instead focus on a rebuild.
like he will make any decisions that aren’t really Sabean’s.
The Yankees are under the salary cap and will have money to buy the Dodgers! We will have, in all seriousness, plenty, mucho dinero, to sign whosoever they need to sign! Money won’t be an issue!
Yes but why do they need two more starters? Most teams employ a 5 man rotation 6 is stretching, how many starters do they have now?
They have Severino and Tanaka. Gray is expected to be traded. Lynn, Happ and Sabathia are free agents. Montgomery is out with TJ surgery. They need two starters if they decide to give one spot to a prospect and three if they don’t.
But you’re illiterate?
Like everyone else psssf
Personally think that Derek Holland would be a lowkey good acquissition for a small market team not willing to overpay for Corbin. Athletics, Pirates, even Brewers could take a look.
For sure would be. But I doubt the Brewers will be going after him. They should be going for Corbin, Keuchel, Ryu, more TOR starters
Keuchel isn’t a TOR starter. He’s more “finesse” Ryu isn’t a TOR starter. Only 1 might be, is Corbin but sample size (period of dominance) worries me
I don’t mean so much Ryu
I like Patrick Corbin on the Brewers. don’t see them spending “big” money in back to back seasons, but what the hey go for it I say.
it’s also not my money
If the fans fill up that park like they should why wouldn’t they have the money? I don’t know anything about the owners are they notoriously frugal?
Holland wants to stay in SF
As I giants fan I hope he stays, but I’m not sure the giants offer him a contract.
The Giants will offer him a contract……fairly steady #3 or #4 pitcher who EATS innings……will come reasonably cheap…..excellent team player on and off the field……good mentor for Rodriguez and Suarez
Walks are the only thing Colon does well.
Stop trolling.
Boom goes the dynamite!
Walks are the only thing. Good luck to him, like pitchers that try to pitch as long as possible. Kinda reminds me of Jamie Moyer (w/o the off field stuff)
Moyer was trash in his last year in Colorado. Absolute garbage. Only similarity is the age. Colon was a damn good pitcher in the first half, relatively speaking.
First off he’s big sexy. Secondly Bartolo is 45 and still pitching, give the dude some respect.
I didn’t see him pitch. First half, was amazing. But in the end, he lost his rotation spot.
Father time is undefeated is all… Hope he continues to defy.
Father Time vs Roids
Richards had TJ last season and won’t ptch next year. He carries an extra layer risk.
I think the Brewers could target Miley, Corbin or Eovaldi. Other then that maybe see if we can start locking up a bunch of our young pitchers. I wonder how Anderson and Guerra fit into the plans.
Angels are going to be in the FA market also. Every big market team looking to sign Machado and I believe that will handcuff that team from signing a big time pitcher. Houston scored with that Cole trade. All the other teams in AL looking to catch up to Astros for another year, so trades will be fun to watch hoping that your team can land a good pitcher so they can stay close. The Angels thought they had 7 starters lined up, but all have bad arms except Heaney. No big name will sign until Machado signs, that contract sets the bar.
I don’t think he should but Harper gets a bigger contract.
I really like Eovaldi as a sleeper free agent. Not as much flash as Corbin or Keuchel but hes got the age/velo/control to be an wise multi-year investment. If we add a SP through free agency I’d be completely comfortable with it being Nate
Ryu is the real sleeper in this bunch. Among this entire group, he leads in WHIP and ERA+, and is second in FIP only to Corbin. Bet that would surprise a lot of people.
Agreed. I’m hoping he relocates about 40 miles south.
To Costa Mesa? Fountain Valley?
Seriously, with all this talk about Kershaw (will he or won’t he?) and the other flashy names, Ryu is hardly ever mentioned. He is one of the top starters in the game right now but you’d never know it by the fan chatter. He remains pretty much unknown by fans outside of this timezone.
Ryu is a lock to stay in Dodger Blue.
I’d like to see a “least injured” category. Doesn’t matter how good you are if injured a lot.
Why does everyone act like there is a possibility that kersaw doesn’t opt out….
Keuchel could be a fit for the braves, depending on how much money they have. Good groundball pitcher, and the braves have an excellent defense.
I’d like to see where Kimbrel, Miller and David Robertson end up. I think going back to the Yankees and being more of a middle of the bullpen guy may have hurt Robertson’s value but you never know. Hopefully he can still close unless the Yanks just open their checkbooks and sign 1-2 of them. Wouldn’t doubt if they did
If I knew how to delete on the app I would delete this and put it on the article about relievers. Doh
I know it’s a long shot but I would love Ryu and Richards in Texas. Ryu for the immediate impact, Richards for the long term potential.
2020 potential rotation:
Ryu
Minor
Richards
Hearn (#6 Rangers prospect)
Palumbo (#7 Rangers prospect)
The luxury tax means having to plan your payroll for multiple years. The Yankees will spend some money this offseason, the rotation is the biggest need. Judge and Sanchez start to get expensive after next year, Tanaka and Ellsbury both have 2 years left at $22 million a year and Stanton is $30 million for the next 6 years. These will all be factors in how much they shell out this year.