More than 200 players are eligible for salary arbitration this offseason, and the deadline to tender each of these players a contract for the 2019 season is November 30th. That also represents the deadline to inform arbitration eligible players whether they will receive a (non-guaranteed) contract, or else become free agents. The two parties will have another roughly two months to work out salaries before arbitration hearings (if necessary) kick off in February.
As we do each year at MLBTR, we’re providing a list of players whose teams could potentially elect not to tender them a contract, thus sending them into the free-agent pool earlier than expected. It should be emphasized that we’re not indicating that each of these players is likely to be non-tendered (though that’s certainly the case with some of them). Typically, we list any player for which we can envision at least atr ar 10-20 percent chance of a non-tender.
It should be noted that many of the borderline non-tender candidates below will be traded this month rather than simply cut loose. Other borderline candidates may be presented with an offer that is notably lower than their projections and could accept the “take it or leave it” ultimatum rather than being non-tendered.
For a full list of each team’s arb-eligible players, you can check out Matt Swartz’s team-by-team arbitration salary projections.
Position Players
Ehire Adrianza (Twins, $1.8MM)
Aaron Altherr (Phillies, $1.6MM)
Tim Beckham (Orioles, $4.3MM)
Justin Bour (Phillies, $5.2MM)
Cheslor Cuthbert (Royals, $1.1MM)
Travis d’Arnaud (Mets, $3.7MM)
Delino DeShields Jr. (Rangers, $1.9MM)
Adam Duvall (Braves, $3.1MM)
Wilmer Flores (Mets, $4.7MM)
Avisail Garcia (White Sox, $8.0MM)
Leury Garcia (White Sox, $1.9MM)
Greg Garcia (Padres, $900K)
Robbie Grossman (Twins, $4.0MM)
Gorkys Hernandez (Giants, $1.6MM)
Chris Herrmann (Astros, $1.5MM)
Caleb Joseph (Orioles, $1.7MM)
Erik Kratz (Brewers, $1.7MM)
Sandy Leon (Red Sox, $2.3MM)
Jake Marisnick (Astros, $2.4MM)
James McCann (Tigers, $3.5MM)
John Ryan Murphy (Diamondbacks, $1.1MM)
Chris Owings (Diamondbacks, $3.6MM)
Hernan Perez (Brewers, $2.7MM)
Josh Phegley (Athletics, $1.2MM)
Miguel Rojas (Marlins, $2.6MM)
Addison Russell (Cubs, $4.3MM)
Tyler Saladino (Brewers, $1.0MM)
Jonathan Schoop (Brewers, $10.1MM)
Yangervis Solarte (Blue Jays, $5.9MM)
Cory Spangenberg (Padres, $2.3MM)
Devon Travis (Blue Jays, $2.4MM)
Tony Wolters (Rockies, $1.1MM)
Pitchers
Matt Andriese (Diamondbacks, $1.1MM)
Chad Bettis (Rockies, $3.2M)
Eddie Butler (Rangers, $900K)
Brian Flynn (Royals, $1.0MM)
Sam Freeman (Braves, $1.5M)
Luis Garcia (Phillies, $1.7MM)
Yimi Garcia (Dodgers, $900K)
Jesse Hahn (Royals, $1.7MM)
Tom Koehler (Dodgers, $2.0MM)
Shelby Miller (Diamondbacks, $4.9MM)
Bryan Mitchell (Padres, $1.2MM)
Neil Ramirez (Indians, $1.3MM)
Tanner Roark (Nationals, $9.8MM)
Zac Rosscup (Dodgers, $800K)
Chris Rusin (Rockies, $1.7MM)
Chasen Shreve (Cardinals, $1.2MM)
Sammy Solis (Nationals, $900K)
Tyler Thornburg (Red Sox, $2.3MM)
Jonny Venters (Braves, $1.5M)
Spangenberg. No wonder kept seeing him in all these fan trade-scenarios… Haha. Coolest name, though 😉
Sandy Leon is not going to be non-tendered. Why does he appear on this list every year?
From Steve’s chat today:
Sox fan: “Sandy Leon is on your non-tender candidates. If he’s non tendered who backs up Vazquez”
Steve Adams: “Swihart or someone not currently in the organization. I don’t see why they should pay Leon $2MM+ when he’s hit .201/.262/.317 over the past two seasons. He’s one of the worst hitters in baseball.”
He’s also excellent defensively and always draws praise from the pitchers he works with. The Sox aren’t pinching pennies. $2m for Leon is pretty reasonable considering what he brings.
Hate to defend Bos fans, but Steve was wrong about Austine Romine, back up C, non-tender candidate last year. I remember some Yank fans really took exception to that, so doesnt surprise me Boston fans are same w/ Leon.
“You never know.”
“Got burnt”?
They are saying there is at least a “10-20 percent chance of a non-tender” – not that they are guaranteed to be cut loose.
In the case of Boston, one can easily see them targeting an upgrade behind the plate. They plan on doing that while tendering Sandy a contract and all of a sudden the club will have 4 Catchers on the 25 man.
There is something about defensively sound catchers these days. Very few catchers are expected to hit for much these days. But good defensive catchers are held on to, even for sizable salaries (e.g. Jeff Mathis always finds a major league job, despite career BA right at the Mendonza Line).
Yeah, sure. Just like it’d be nice to carry 15 relievers too.
Red Sox plan on signing one of Grandal/Ramos though (they are rumored to be interested) and all of a sudden you have 4 Catchers on a 25 man roster.
Simple math says they can’t keep them all, which means yeah, there is at least a 10% chance he’s non-tendered
All true except for the NYY, who will play a passball machine at catcher. I remember in 2017 him having passball in the 8th and 9th innings against the Redsox in Boston, and lead MLB in passballs in ONLY 81 games. But in the NL a catcher has to hit or your giving 2 outs per 9 batters.(pitcher and a non-hitting catcher). In the AL a team can get away with it if the rest of the team hits…
This is a lost of potential candidates, not projected candidates.
People need to read the article first.
Kendall Graveman?
Dull too.
Surprised Cory Gearrin isn’t a candidate.
Rosscup is not with the Cubs.
My fault, fixed it.
Chasen Shreve? After Voit. How? The whole purpose trading for Shreve was his team control. No chance get non-tendered especially after Voit’s resurgence. 3.93 ERA in 52.2 IP. (60G) Three years of team control. Certainly not non-tender here
Voit’s emergence has nothing to do with the Shreve decision. Voit himself probably would’ve been cut if he hadn’t broken out with the Yankees, and had no real place on a St Louis roster anyways
Shreve is walking almost 5 batters per 9 innings over his last 100 games. Combine that with giving up an insanely high home run rate (1.75),
Considering the Cardinals will need some roster spots open (for both free agents/trade acquisitions and Rule 5 protections), I don’t think it’s at all egregious to move on.
That guy is slow throwing trash
Kind of like Mozeliak fleeced by Ninja Cash. Dump Shreve, trade turns to “fleeced” Shreve will most def re-sign with NYY (if NYY wants) so it would mean Voit was given for free.
The prize in that trade was Gallegos.
Lol Shreves not coming back to NY dude
Did you see Shreve crying after he got traded? If they want him, after he gave NYY all he had for four years, (2015, was prob their best RP) they’ll re-sign him.
Know the volatile nature of Relievers makes them streaky, but this dude is streakiest RP, always seemed to burn down as year went on. The key is not to over-use him, splitters’ dope
Shreve is solid for stretches. honestly think Joe Girardi FINALLY figured him out, lmao (very specific in Shreve’s use, Joe’s final year) Shreve looks like all-star in beginning every yr but Over use, and get burned. Re-sign Shreve! Wouldn’t mind!
Bonus- Having a lefty with Reverse splits is kind of cool 😉
well he did. lol i dont know how i found this comment but whatever
You beat me to it. No way he gets non tendered
No, the whole point in trading for Shreve was they needed a lefty to get through the rest of the year and they were able to get a good pen piece in Gallegos, who they actual wanted. Shreve was horrible as a Cardinal and Left handed reliever is certainly an area the Cardinals will address this offseason. He may not be non-tendered but there’s a good chance he’s DFA’d before opening day.
Only one that might get DFA on opening day for the Cardinals on the left side of the bullpen will be Cecil. Shreve should be safe for the Cardinals.
They’re definitely more inclined to keep Cecil, as bad as he’s been.
A Loogie acquisition and Gomber to the pen would make shreve the 4th behind Cecils contract.
Meet the Detroit Tigers’ opening day roster!
Or the orioles lol
I would have no problem with the Tiger’s signing Shelby Miller for less than $5MM. Could be this year’s Mike Fiers.
If Shelby Miller is non-tendered by the D-Backs it just makes an already horrible trade even worse. Though the Braves don’t need him, it would be ironic if they were the team that signed Miller if he is non-tendered. Truly a scenario of having your cake and eating it too. Still, may not happen. Too big of a PR hit for the D-Backs IMHO..
I really hope they don’t non-tender Venters. I’m rooting for him.
Even if he is non tendered, he’s one of those players who will definitely find another opportunity elsewhere
On the flip side as bad as it may sound, I won’t be disappointed if Sam Freeman is non-tendered.
I love smaller-scale moves, so things like the non-tender deadline and the deadline to add guys to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 draft are fascinating to me.
There are a few potentially sneaky pickups in here, my favorite being Marisnick if he’s non-tendered.
Unless houston signs a big named OF, I think he stays as their first OF off the bench. But, outside of speed and amazing defense, his bat is pretty below average.
Well smaller scale moves can win you championships. Steve Pierce, Cody Ross, Joe Blanton/JC Romero, etc.
Pearce***** man just won the WS mvp for Christ sake.
sounds like some good players that could be scooped up like the reds did with scooter
Not Weeping Wilmer!
Disagree with Bryan Mitchell being a non tender candidate. Prior to his showing at the end of the year a lot of fans were definitely seeking for him to be DFA immediately and rightfully so.
But coming off his strong september where 3 out of 4 of his outings were great I think he bought himself a short leash heading into 2019. 1.2 million arb, Lamet still recovering from TJS, I think he sticks
I do think the padres move young arms like Kennedy, Nix, Lauer, even Lucceshi in order to gain a controllable 3B.
The only reason he’s not a non-tender candidate is because the organization is too proud to concede that they lost the trade for him. They basically bought him from the Yanks for $13 Mil and he was hot garbage last year, but now because he had 3 well timed good starts out of 11 they’re going to ride this deal out for another year and see if he can salvage some value.
Padres have a ton of young pitching prospects graduating to the bigs next year so without even adding any SPs this offseason, which they really should do, I would be very surprised if he can stick in that rotation.
Mitchell was really disappointing. I can’t see any real hope with him. He had average stuff, and nothing really special emerged
I’m gonna disagree and say that the stuff was there but the control/command weren’t. The mid-90’s fastball has late life and he got some nice swing-and-miss with it. His curveball is sharp. The problem is that he can’t throw either for strikes, especially the curveball. He’ll spike that thing in the grass and next thing you know he’s trying to get by with the fastball, and often times he can’t command that effectively. It’s frustrating when you see a guy with the stuff to get outs but can’t seem to harness it.
I don’t see the Brewers non tendering Hernan Perez and I certainly don’t see them non tendering Schoop. Perez may have had a down year but he’s one of the most versatile players in the league, being able to play almost every position and play them well. Throw in his speed and the pop he has in his bat, I’m sure they’ll keep him.
As for Schoop, 1) I think they gave up too much for him to not keep him, and 2) they really don’t have an immediate answer at 2nd base. They have top prospect Keston Hiura waiting in the wings but he has yet to play above AA, he still needs some more time in the high minors.
Schoop’s wRC+ was 50(!!!) with the Brewers. He doesn’t get on base, and is projected ~10M in arbitration.
I think that screams non-tender candidate.
They didn’t give up much for schoop doubt any player does well in the majors
They already gave up one player who did well in the majors. Villar outperformed Schoop for a fraction of the cost. They didn’t give up elite talent but Ortiz certainly has a chance to be a mid-back end starter. The young SS carmona isn’t a terrible prospect in his own regard.
1. You can’t let what you gave up for a player dictate whether you keep him or not. Schoop has upside if he can get back to his previous form, but he’s not worth even close to a $10 million gamble. He’s a sunk cost; realize it and move on.
2. They could find someone to more than replicate his performance down the stretch for the league minimum, let alone his projected price tag. I also don’t think you can rule them out moving Shaw to second again and going after a third baseman (maybe even bringing Moustakas back).
What kind of deal do you think Schoop gets in FA? I bet it’s something like a 1/7 or 8 mil with incentives. I don’t think that the 10 is that bad of a gamble. They have a clear hole at 2B. Maybe they want to go after a different option but it’ll likely be on a multi year pact which is probably not preferable with Hiura almost ready. The only real option to snag on a one year deal if you don’t want schoop would be dozier. Murphy isn’t really a 2B anymore and I think all the rest of the comparable options are going to be seeking a multi year deal. You definitely can’t put Shaw at 2B. That’s not something the brewers need to be doing at all. That also would involve a multi year pact with moustakas who im sure is looming for more length on this contract.
I can see the argument for non-tendering him. 10 million plus is a lot of money for a guy you’re not sure of. But if Schoop gets non-tendered he won’t be unemployed for long.
There’s an argument but the. You need to replace him. There’s a cost involved with replacing him. You’re not going to target multi year options because of Hiura. If you’re not willing to find guys looking for multi year pacts that’s goig to limit your group of players to sign. Or if you are it’s likely Hiura is now a trade chip. There’s certainly a scenario where it happens but I don’t know if it’s the best outcome for MILW.
Schoop is due $8,500,000, Villar played 2B in the playoff., he batted 202 for Milwk. BUT did have 21 RBI in 124 at bats, so 1 rbi every 5 at bats.
Zaidi needs to pick up a couple of sleepers here.
The Dodgers bullpen last year consisted of a bunch of these type of players. I could see it.
Sleepwalkers, you mean? Yeah the Dodgers had a bunch of them in the bullpen. No surprise three of them on are the likely non-tender list now.
shouldn’t joe panik be up there? I know there has been buzz about either trading or non tendering him
I think it’s much like Sonny Gray: it seems rather likely they’ll try to swing a deal instead of having to worry about the non-tender decision.
They won’t have a problem moving Gray. Everyone sees he’s a much better pitcher away from Yankee Stadium. Has value has taken a huge hit but there are plenty of teams that would take a chance on him.
I agree. I was also expecting to see Panik up here as a non-tender candidate. Sure they may try to swing a trade but teams won’t offer much if they think he will be on the open market soon anyway.
From a Giant’s perspective I was also expecting to see Dyson on here. His projected salary is $5.4M. His 2018 peripherals looked decent, I just think the money could be better spent elsewhere.
I can only hope the Braves non tender Duvall. He is god awful
I still question the acquisition of getting him. Granted they traded lottery tickets, but they are still better than a losing ticket from last week.
Sims and wisler were likely going to be 40 man casualties. The amount of young pitching the braves have is obviously second to none. Duvall has been a pretty good player in the past but it appears those days may be over. Wasn’t a horrendous move at the time. They needed a power bat off the bench. He just didnt work out at all.
Doubt Wilmer and Marisnick will be non tendered. Both provide a lot to their respective teams.
MArisnick can play. Many teams would sign him in a heartbeat as depth on the Mlb roster and he’d be better defensively than most of the starters on the team.
But the question is whether they would pay Marsnick what he is projected to make. Every team would like Bryce Harper, too,but only at the rate they are willing to pay. Not $40MM per.
Jake marisnick’s 2.5 MM dollars is hardly prohibitive. Any backup OF worth their salt is going to cost that much. He can’t hit much but his defense is fantastic and he can swipe some bags.
Chisox could go from feast to famine on the Garcia-meter.
Time to move Avi—not worth his contract presently.
I heard a report talking about Matt Shoemaker as an NTC
Yes, he should be on the list.
There is at least a 10-20% chance he will not be tendered, which is the very small threshold they set for this list
Braves will do Freeman and Duvall
I hope its Freddie!
On a side note, why does MLB allow the arbitrators to base their decisions primarily on archaic stats, and why do players who regress never see the regression reflected in their arbitration derived salary? Jonathan Scoop is a glaring example of what is wrong with the arbitration process. 10MM projected salary, a 1.5MM raise for a guy who was pretty terrible last year but hit 20+ home runs so I guess he must be good by the arbitors standards, right? The whole process needs a complete overhaul.
It was definitely intended to help protect the players in arbitration. For power hitters who offer little else it’s a huge drag on them now. You’re going to see more and more of them get non tendered. Non closers also get shafted with the way they have been re valued on the FA market.
40 years ago Bill James began publishing little known baseball stats that he believed explained why certain teams won . A small minority of bright agents and front office groups began cherry picking those stats in Arbitration Briefs.. That practice was met by three groups with a vested interest in not allowing that type and depth of info. Group 1: old, lazy , and cheap owners who feared new fangled (and expensive) things like computers. Group 2: old, lazy and cheap Agents who had the same fears; Group 3: baseball arbitrators, who were also old and lazy and feared they would be replaced by a younger and better informed group of arbitrators. Needless to say (that with the majority of those three groups having a vested interest in banning such data ) the outcome was set in stone. The players and the owners would have to agree to change and allow the new data which is not happening.
Uh Sonny Gray if he doesn’t get dealt
isn’t he under contract so “non-tender” is not an option
Sonny Gray won’t get non-tendered. At the very least we’d be able to get something for him. Even international bonus pool money would be better than just letting him walk. People know he’s better away from the Yankees. They won’t pay a premium to get him but they’ll pay something.
Agree on this. $9.1MM for a pitcher who will likely do much better away from NY makes sense to keep an easy trade chip.
Surprised that shoemaker/ Ramirez were not on this list for angels
Mikie Mahtook has been talked about as a non tender in Detroit.
I would take a flyer on Chad Bettis outside of Colorado
White Sox would be fools to pay $8M for replacement level production.
I seriously doubt the DBacks non tender Andriese. On the other hand, if they can’t swing a trade to deal away Boxberger, he is a non tender candidate.
Cubs better not non tender addison Russell. Issues aside it would be a mistake letting him go. And because nothing was proven he should be their SS.
Get a #3 tarter at least for him.
The last thing the cubs need is a #3 starter. Darvish Lester Hendricks Quintana Hamels and Monty aren’t enough already? The cubs have at least 2 pitchers that are ideally #3 starters at this point.
They need something worth while and who has the same.4 years of control addison Russell has..
They wont sign kimbrel because theo doesnt believe in long term closers. Which is very smart. Maybe trade addy and morrow for Edwin Diaz. He’s cheap, they need a 2B. Cubs need a good closer Cano can DH. Or move seager to 2nd and addy can play SS.
Of all the possibilities of being non tender there are a couple that could be very intriguing to the Brewers I think like Travis D’arnaud, John Ryan Murphy, Devon Travis, Eddie Butler, Tanner Roark, Brian Flynn, Tyler Thornburg, and Bryan Mitchell could be very valued pick ups
There is absolutely no chance that Devon Travis is non-tendered. His inclusion on this list is perplexing.
No chance Tanner Roark is non tendered
Where is Didi Gregorius? Dude is going to be cut by the Yankees. Hand over short to FHOF Gleyber. Marwin will be signed to play 2nd.
Lmao. Troll game is dwindling.
Thats been the plan since the Cubs traded Torres to the Yankees. He’s always been their future SS. Didi when he returns probably September at the earliest can play 2nd. Torres is better in every single aspect of the game. Didi is good but he’s not Torres good.
Why would the Braves non-tender Venters???
Yeah, I don’t see it happening. He’s worth a 1.5MM gamble. He was incredible when he was with the Braves after the trade.
Weird to see how far in just one year Schoop’s stock has fallen.
They should just rename this article potential Pirates off-season targets.
PS: Schoop took a fall after failing for 2 different teams, in what was expected to be his breakout year.
He’s likely still worth 10mil, but other problem is Brewers don’t need him.
He still has productive seasons ahead, just not on track for 15mil+ annually, like a good 2017 could have landed him.
I really hope the Yankees take a chance on Justin Bour if he gets non-tendered. I’d rather not hope Bird finds his way. I’m done with him. He’s not even Nick Johnson 2.0. At this point he’s Nick Johnson -1..0.
List all the players considered untradeable, list the cost of each player, choose best team fit then make a series of multi-team trades so that all teams end with a similar payroll they had before the trades.. at least for 3 years. The list looks something like this:
Tigers = $254M – Miguel Cabrera – Jordan Zimmermann
Yankees + $27M – Jacoby Ellsbury
Red Sox + $26M – Rusney Castillo
Angels = $87M – Albert Pujols
Orioles = $92M – Chris Davis
Rusney’s $$$ don’t count against the Lux Tax but any $$$ they took back would count so there will never be a Rusney trade.
Ellsbury costs way more than that. He’s getting 21 million for the next two seasons plus he has a $5 million dollar buy out.
Rockies should definitely non-tender Wolters. They’ve got essentially the same player in Dom Nunez, who isn’t even pre-arb being as he hasn’t made it out of the minors yet but that also means he has all of his remaining options and would therefor is a more practical AAA depth catcher.
Not sure why they’d would not retain Bettis or Rusin though. Bettis certainly should have some trade value, I’d imagine Rusin does as well.
Would Schoop for Roark be werid? Money matches up