Over the next couple weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 projections are available right here.
The most interesting arbitration case of 2019 is probably Jacob deGrom. The arbitration system is an antiquated method of player compensation. While teams on the free agent market bid based on innovative stats, other numbers that reflect more accurate player valuations, and detailed scouting assessments, the arbitration system still uses stats like wins, saves, and RBI that teams have since discarded in their player evaluation. The stats remain important because a couple hundred players become eligible for arbitration every year, and everyone knows what criteria the system uses.
But arbitration also rewards hardware. An MVP or Cy Young Award can weigh heavily on the ultimate salary a player will take home, and until recently those awards were often based on antiquated statistics like wins. The press was a few steps behind front offices in innovation—after all, that’s probably how it should be.
All these differing forces crash into each other in 2019, as deGrom enters his third year of arbitration eligibility with a mere 10-9 record, but a Cy Young Award. And it was not just a squeaker he won without real competition —he got all but one first place vote in a year where Max Scherzer won 18 games, had a 2.53 ERA, and struck out 300 hitters. Aaron Nola won 17 games this year with a 2.37 ERA too. There were clearly other contenders, but deGrom won thanks to a more knowledgeable press base that eschewed wins and focused on his sensational overall performance.
Arbitration still uses wins, however. And that could easily downgrade deGrom. In fact, my model—which is backward looking by design, asking what raises players have gotten historically with similar statistics—sees deGrom earning a mere $5.5 million raise, which would bring him up to a $12.9 million salary. Back in 2014, Scherzer himself won a Cy Young with a 21-3 record and a 2.90 ERA, striking out 240 in 214.1 innings. That got him an $8.8 million raise, a record for third time eligible starting pitchers which still stands today. The eleven fewer wins are the main reason the model is more skeptical of deGrom. After all, the strikeouts and innings are similar and deGrom’s ERA was a full point lower.
The model could easily miss here. If a panel decides to ignore wins like the Cy Young voters did, it could easily give deGrom a $9 or $10 million raise (and somewhere around a $17 million salary), possibly setting off a new wave of arbitration cases that could simultaneously give arbitration-eligible pitchers salaries more in line with their relative value, all while forcing the unfortunate arbitration salary modelers of this world to retool their models!
Of course, maybe the model is just right. Maybe the Mets will be able to persuade a panel — or, more likely, persuade CAA Sports (the agency that only recently employed new Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen) that a panel would be persuaded — that wins will be valued as they have in the past, substantially harming deGrom’s argument. In that case, we would need to look for pitchers with very low win totals and very low ERAs. Only a few names surface.
By far the most interesting is Jeff Samardzija. In 2015, Samardzija went 7-13 with a 2.99 ERA in 219.2 innings, and earned a $4.34 million raise. That seems like an absolute floor for deGrom, who clearly bested Samardzija on every major statistic—even wins. Plus, that was four years ago and is probably a little stale.
There are not even that many very low ERA seasons to look at. Cole Hamels got a $5.5 million raise seven years ago with a 14-9 record and a 2.79 ERA. The model is essentially predicting that deGrom gets Hamels’ raise despite the staleness of that case, and despite the fact that deGrom topped Hamels in every category but wins.
Perhaps another interesting comparable could be David Price, who went 15-12 with a 3.26 ERA in 2015. The most notable aspect of his case though, is the fact that his tally of 271 strikeouts is quite similar to deGrom’s 269. Probably the most compelling aspect of Price’s case, however, was his accumulation of 248.1 innings. That tops deGrom by over thirty frames. Price’s $5.75 million raise could be argued as a ceiling on that front as well. There is a key difference cutting in the other direction, of course, in the form of the extra 1.5 earned runs Price allowed per nine innings.
Whatever deGrom gets, he is sure to set an interesting precedent going forward. Will arbitration panels stop paying as much attention to wins? How will they consider extremely low ERAs? How will Cy Young Awards come into play? The most interesting case of 2019 probably has some light to shine on these questions.
The best raise the Mets can give deGrom is a trade to a contending team.
1000% disagree. If the Mets just added a Wilson Ramos, Marwin Gonzalez and 2 solid bullpen arms, the Mets would be in instant contention. I believe the Mets should even look into trading Syndergaard for Kris Byrant. Makes a lot of sense.
Yes, couldn’t agree more! Syndergaard for Bryant makes a lot of sense, both sides get exactly what they need. Also think they should call the Indians for a Jay Bruce for Corey Kluber swap, I’m sure cleveland remembers how good Bruce was for them, and would love a cheaper replacement for Brantley. Plus, the Mets fill the rotation spot of Syndergaard. Probably should also ask the Dodgers about an Amed Rosario for Corey Seager swap, the Dodgers get an athletic SS who can play multiple positions and fits their mold, and also free up a spot to sign Machado. Overall think the future is bright for the Mets.
Your post is a joke but you made it too serious for most people to see that. Well, I hope it’s a joke. I’m inclined to believe it is but you know after reading it you’re left with some doubt in your mind that it is.
Why would the Dodgers downgrade at SS just to spend more money on Machado?
They should trade Ketel Marte and Fredrick Johnson to the Yanks for Cesar García and Michael Beasley. It makes sense for both bullpens.
Yep. Troll post. Cannot take it seriously.
lmao
No way your getting Bryant for Syndergaard, Bryant was MVP and Rookie of the year.
Okay hold up with the whole Marwin as a quality piece….. I love Marwin but he’s 30 and has only had 1 and a half seasons of good hitting. If he hits like he hit the first half of 2018 man it was painful to watch
I’m glad that you didn’t 2000% disagree Danny. None of the ifs will come true, except perhaps that when they don’t you will find a new team.
Gonzalez is overrated. 2017 was an aberration. 2018 was mire in line with career norms. His glove in the IF is bad. He’s a 4th OFer really.
His big thing is his ability to be able to play a high number of positions adequately. He’s average/ below average a SS but he’s definitely serviceable at 2nd and 1st. Also I’m not sure what Citi field is like but at Minute Maid the short left field allowed him to do quite well. Also his 2nd half of 2018 was actually pretty good he hit 210 in the first half.
I think it is going to be up to deGrom, the Mets will offer him a long term contract and try and sign him, maybe 5/165. He will either sign it or be traded.
Or, if they can’t work out an extension, they can keep him until this year’s trade deadline. Or wait and try to deal with it again next offseason. Or at the 2020 trade deadline. Still plenty of time to figure things out.
That’s been the Mets problem, they wait too long and they have 50 million in dead money with Wright and Cespedes., or 33 percent of their budget. It all started when they over pitched Harvey 3 years ago. It’s hard to win with that kind of money on the shelf.
I imagine the Mets may have to throw in another play with Thor to get Bryant
It would be bogus that the Mets terrible offense is the reason why DeGrom doesn’t make a lot…
… but at the same time, I can very vaguely understand why win/Loss can be used against him.
$17M est. salary? Hang in there. In 2 years you’ll be making $30M+ AAV like the Greinkes and Kershaws of the world :)
I agree and hope that he soaks them in ARB until he gets what he deserves.
He’s lucky that “TC” didn’t ruin his career like others.
Wouldn’t it be great if his new agent makes a grandstand of his old agent at the Winter meetings and announces that he demands a trade now?
The Mets should offer DeGrom a 6 yr, $150 million contract. Pay him an even $25 million for the next six seasons. No way DeGrom would turn down that kind of financial security. Not to mention, he wouldn’t even come close to a $25 million AAV for his last two arbitration years. It’s a win, win for both sides.
neh, he could come close to 25 in just next year. the mets would need to offer more than that.
There’s no way DeGrom would even consider this. He’s not touching 6 years or $150. 7 and $210 to have a serious discussion. He has financial security.
You will need to start a gofundme Danny, because the Wilpon’s will not pay that much money. And even if they did, they would have nobody to surround him with.
Danny, you should be the GM, it sounds simple to me.
You say twice that Arbitration still uses wins. But do we know that to be true? To my knowledge, Nothing in the CBA nor any rule instructs the panel that they must give wins any more consideration than other stats. The panel doesn’t give a written rationale for their decision. The hearings are confidential. So, even if we concoct a top notch regression model, we don’t really know what stats they panels are finding persuasive. Point taken , that the process is antequated. But my money is on DeGrom doing extremely well and if he goes to a hearing. It’s very easy for a non-savvy panel to understand 2018 Cy Young = 2018 best pitcher. And he has a track record. Back up the truck.
I’m not the expert, but I will say that the model is assessed every year to address identifiable changes. So when you say, “do we know”? No, not really. It’s a prediction based upon past factors. Really, that’s what he’s talking about in this post. Wins have been predictive to this point. Obviously he has not been able to suss out anything to this point to suggest wins don’t still matter. But that can change — gradually or, perhaps, with a decent jolt with a major case like this one.
The ultimate test for change is a hearing, which can occur if both sides really stick to their guns. You may recall the Betances case from a few years back, where there was a huge spread in filing numbers. He was essentially trying to argue that the lack of accumulation of saves shouldn’t detract from his excellent and voluminous output. He lost. It’s conceivable a starter like deGrom could try the same w/r/t wins, but he and the team would both be taking risks.
Never forgot about Betances’ case. Filed for 5M. And Yanks countered at 3M. Made 507.5K prev yr. He lost.
They did settle amicably next time around, so does it really affect their relationship? Hmm..
What do you think DeGrom will make in ‘19 Jeff?
I think it is going to be up to deGrom, the Mets will offer him a long term contract and try and sign him, maybe 5/165. He will either sign it or be traded.
That David Price season mentioned was in 2014, not 2015.
Its gonna be hilarious when brodie refuses to pay what he asks and they end up on opposite sides of a courtroom with his new agent ripping in to his former boss.
Pretty sure that Brodie will be recusing himself from negotiations with his former clients.
It will still be up to him to negotiate agreements on arb salaries though
Recusing, interesting so Brodie doesn’t know anything about what deGrom wants or what he will sign for, and he won’t tell the Mets. What a joke!
I’m alittle torn on this guy. . . He’s arb eligible for two years. Doesn’t want to stay if no deal is done now. Which I understand from a cash standpoint. Wants to be traded from a leverage standpoint. But New York is New York. My gut is he wants to stay. His former agent is in the FO. BUT. . . Free agent at 32. Not a hugly long track record which is good I guess from a mileage standpoint. . . I don’t know… I’ve been reading 5 years $150 mil. I’d have to say I’d do it now. Or like they say. . . Trade him for Max profit asap…….
Anyone notice that most awards went to players/mangers with little to no expectations this season..Bob Melvin , degrom over max, snell over Verander…
now a fox contract expansion…I sniff there is more to this than MLB saying. all about money.
thanks Cora for helping Boston overtake a 1st round in the playoffs…but Melvin do better ….lol
I can imagine a future where arbitration hearings degenerate into a battle of WARs
;-)
deGrom won Cy Young w/o wins. Paradigm is shifting. Wins will lose value in arbitration.