Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 projections are available right here.
After the first year of arbitration, it is typical for arbitration salaries to be rewarded as raises on top of previous year’s salaries, based on platform year performances. That sets Mookie Betts up for quite a hefty salary in 2019, since he nearly had a record high $10.5 million salary last year and had quite an accomplished 2018 campaign.
Mookie Betts won the MVP Award with a .346 average and 32 home runs. Batting out of the leadoff spot, he only had 80 RBI, but entering arbitration with the MVP Award, my model projects him to get an $8.2 million raise and earn $18.7 million. That would easily set a record for second time eligible salaries (Ryan Howard got $15 million way back in 2009), but would fall short of the record raise for second time eligible players. Bryce Harper set the latter mark in 2017 with $8.63 million riase. Harper’s case was atypical, though, because it came following a two-year deal. Other than that, Betts is projected for the largest raise ever—which does make sense following an MVP season.
In the last decade, only two players have entered their second year of arbitration coming off an MVP season—Josh Donaldson in 2016 and Josh Hamilton way back in 2011. Not only is Hamilton a stale comp at this point, but both received multi-year deals that might make them less likely to be used as comparables. While Donaldson’s $7.35 million raise would therefore not typically be a useful comparable, both he and the Blue Jays filed numbers in a tight band ($7.05 million and $7.5 million) that were also quite close to the actual result. Given that the comp is a few years out of date, it seems reasonable for Betts to argue that the Donaldson salary point represents a clear floor. Since Donaldson hit .297 with 41 HR and 123 RBI, his performance was more power-centric. But it certainly suggests roughly an $8 million raise for a reigning MVP is close to the right price.
Betts also won the batting title, which also calls back to Charlie Blackmon and Dee Gordon in recent years. The latter had only four home runs in 2015, so he is a weak comparable. Blackmon is a little stronger since his 2016 numbers — .324/29/82 — delivered some of the punch that Betts did at .346/32/80. That earned him a $3.8 million raise, which was actually well shy of what the model predicted. If there’s any added boost for the batting title, then, it’s tough to gauge.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox can certainly try to point to the Blackmon comp if they want to hold Betts’ salary down, but the Donaldson raise seems like a more compelling precedent since he won the MVP Award. And it probably does not hurt Betts’s negotiating position that he scored a major win over the Sox last year in a hearing. All things considered, I suspect Betts will get a record raise and earn quite close to his 2019 projection.
Mookie is the type that once he signs his megadeal, he’s going to mail it in. You can just tell.
He’s an elite bowler in his spare time.
I see what you did there!
Strike when the iron is hot
I’d rather strike before the Polar Icecaps melt.
Like Freeman?
Jason Heyward is the epitome of mailing it in after signing a big contract.
That’s insane. You don’t know him nor his desire to play the game at a high level. He was offered a very lengthy & high valued extension & turned it down. Like Max Scherzer did against my Tigers, he bet on himself to have an even better year & maximize his potential earnings. He will get another offer from Boston & will probably be the largest offer Boston has ever made. If he turns it down, he still has to play at a high level next year to get another big arbitration reward. Teams are shying away from 10 year contracts after they see what Stanton has become so my guess is he accepts a 5-7 year deal from Boston & not risk a down year after an MVP year. 7 years & 210 million should get it done.
He was trolling. Betts tries for perfection at everything he does. Look at his bowling. Jeff’s comment is misplaced as all he does is bowl strikes.
Whaaaa? If I’m starting a franchise from scratch right now, the two top players I select are Mookie and Trout. Probably Mookie #1 because of age and less wear and tear. And I say that as someone who despises the BoSox.
Wow. Just amazing.
Mookie is only a year younger than Trout, but yeah Mookie is one of top few players.
mookie is 5f9 little men burn out at a younger age… trout is 6f2
Mookie is just a year younger than Trout,sooooooo. Trout has pretty much been healthy in his career with outside of the thumb/ wrist injuries.
Yankee fans come in all shapes, you should be ashamed your even wrote that, Betts runs out everything.
mookie is a little guy.. little players burn out at a younger age…
yea, Justin Turner is so burnt out
Nice troll what a clown.
In my opinion defensive improvement is the tell tale sign of work ethic. If you put in disciplined reps in the outfield, you will get better. Al Kaline, Alex Gordon, and Devon White are the proofs for this argument. Betts plays in the hardest right field to defend in the MLB and he keeps getting better. This leads me to believe his work ethic is probably first rate. Give him an 8 year 240 million extension.
Apparently you’ve missed the stories about how competitive he is on everything he does. Don’t see that happening. Btw~tell from what??
Idiocy only reflects poorly on you, no one else.
Idiodic assumption that reeks of pure ignorance. How in the world do you come to that conclusion? I’ll wait for an answer…
My guess is you haven’t watched much of Mookie Betts playing if that’s your opinion… you can tell from the way he acts and carries himself that he plays baseball because he loves it. He’s constantly smiling and laughing (a little too much at times to be honest). But essentially my point is — there’s no way that he would just “mail it in as you say” because that would make the game not fun for him – and then he’d be miserable. Big $ or not Mookie is going to be the same guy – playing as well as he can for the love of the game not just for the $ of the game. Also I think he’s just way to egotistical to not try to be the best player he can be — he HATES when like people pass him in things like League Leader stuff. Heck he even was ‘motivated’ (aka kinda pissed) when (before his injuries) JD Martinez caught up to him for the RS team lead for HRs and went out and mashed like 7 in 4 games to retake the team lead.
This comment is either entirely trolling, or you just haven’t watched Mookie play. He’s one of the last guys I’d ever expect to ‘mail it in’ after getting paid. (Unlike Christian Vasquez who it appears did precisely that last season…)
Give Mookie whatever money he’s asking for. Better yet, lock him up for life. The front office will have failed if Betts doesn’t play his entire career in a Red Sox uniform.
They can try with his skill set I bet he will test the open market when it’s time. He could go back to the Sox or he could go else where. His skill set are pushing him towards trout territory.
Break the bank and Win again in 2019. Then sign the legacy guys like Betts to regretfully large contracts so you’ve still got marketable names while you reload for next run.
I remember hearing that same argument on Pedroia once upon a time. I don’t need to tell you how that one played out.
Whatever Harper signs for add $2M per year for an extension.
Age will hold him back somewhat in that regard. Part of Harper’s appeal is that it books most free agents, a significant portion of the contract will cover prime years as opposed to decline years.
*unlike most, not it books most
Stupid autocorrect
Harper is the type of guy who will become a turd after signing a big contract. Pretty boy hair. Girly injuries. Premadonna media comments.
I see this for sure. Better be a team I can continue to root against. If this was football it would be the equivalent to the Cowboys.
Being guided by the stupidity of others is no way to run a business.
By focusing on power numbers and batting average the article avoids numbers such as WAR. At 25 Mookie has a higher career WAR than any of the other comparable players listed in the article. His 2018 was money, and he deserves, and should get more. I hate the Sox, but agree that they would be insane not to sign Betts to a fat contract. Lock him up now. There is no reason to wait.
I imagine numbers such as WAR were intentionally avoided in the article, given how antiquated the arbitration process is. Nothing will get you a huge raise through arbitration than HRs and RBIs. The arbitration process is still stuck in 20th century
Nailed it
100%. Rapidly falling behind when it comes to evaluation, and I’m not sure there is the right process in place to change it anytime soon.
Dear Mookie,
cha cha cha CHING!!
Love, Red Sox management.
I annoyingly say “Good one” MYR!!!
and what’s behind door number two
Red Sox fans should be pleased Mookie won Arb. last time 🙂 truly believe helped establish goodwill for possible extension
Had the Sox won on the other hand… (My speculation)
Not sure how winning Arb. last time round establishes goodwill. What would have established goodwill would have been not going to arbitration to begin with. By going to arbitration Sox told Mookie that he wasn’t worth what he was asking for – no matter the outcome it can only foster ill will or have no effect at all..
It doesn’t.
Pay him whatever he wants. He’s a great player.
I can’t wait to get this guy at my fantasy auction. Going to bid as much as $60 for him.
An extension for a consensus Top 5 player in the league in his mid-20’s would make sense. Boston can structure the deal to begin in 2020 to offset the Pablo Sandoval albatross. Extend him until 2026 and have his number ready to retire thereafter.
I love the way Mookie plays the game, will deserve anything he gets n will get. Also the Redsox still have Rockets number on hold to be retired publically.
No way he agrees to a 7 year deal unless it is at 40M per. He would get at least 10 years on the market with a total of around 350M.
The Red Sox should have locked him up three years ago instead of signing Sandoval. Now they get to pay again for that mistake.
Umm…Sandoval along with HanRam were signed after the 2014 season, so to say Betts should have been locked up 3 years ago instead of Sandoval lacks continuity.
As for $40-mil per year? Maybe. Betts might settle for $250 for 7. Might ask for more, might take less and add incentives.
You don’t leave Boston for the highest bidder. You leave Boston for the highest stakes.
After Harper and Machado sign, the comps will be in. Mookie and Sox agree to long term deal after these signs and before spring training. His value and opportunity will never be higher after winning MVP(unless of course he does it again next year)
Which is entirely possible. But agree that the benchmarks should be set with those 2 signing. If anything, he should be able to command a couple of mil more AAV. The guy has a superior skillset (at least equal offensive, greatly superior defence…especially if Machado insists on staying at his weaker position at SS) and outworks both of them combined.
What’s this nonsense Mookie cash in and like coast. Must be fans that hate on redsox. The man needs to get paid and he is on a team with the payroll to do it. If the royals or A’s just to name two had him they would watch him walk to the big market.
Why do you all think Stanton and either Harper or Machado will end up in pinstripes
The real truth is if it wasn’t for arbitration all these other smaller market teams would suck. My braves included. Y’all leave Mookie alone. The man is what baseball needs.
mookie would be faster if he didn’t wear that gold chain he stole from papi
The Sox should’ve locked up Mookie to a long term deal along the lines of Mike Trout 2 years ago. The price just keeps going up now.
I will say, as much as I love Mookie, I foresee him having a career path similar to Andrew McCutchen.