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Nationals Made “Aggressive” Extension Offer To Harper Near End Of Season

By Steve Adams | November 7, 2018 at 8:28am CDT

TODAY: The offer would have included an approximately $300MM guarantee over a ten-year span, Janes adds on Twitter. That offer is “no longer on the table,” per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, though that is not to say that the sides will not engage in further discussions.

YESTERDAY: The Nationals made an “aggressive” offer to Bryce Harper prior to the end of the season that he clearly did not accept, Chelsea Janes and Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post report. The deal didn’t contain any opt-outs and was for under $400MM in total value, per Janes, although USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the arrangement would’ve promised Harper “about” $30MM annually on a long-term pact. Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that the formal offer came on Sept. 26 — the day of the Nationals’ final home game of the season.

Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo had little to say on the matter, as one might expect, but Janes notes that Rizzo did acknowledge the Nationals’ effort to take advantage of the now-expired exclusive negotiating window teams have with their own free agents in the five days that follow the World Series. MLB.com’s Jamal Collier further tweets that Rizzo implied that the team is not yet giving up on retaining Harper. “He’s our guy,” said Rizzo. “So we’re looking forward to seeing what can transpire.” Janes and Svrluga add that the offer made to Harper was not a token offer and that the front office has “genuine interest” in keeping the slugger.

Details on the length of the offer aren’t clear, but given the annual salary referenced by Nightengale, it’s all but assured that the deal would’ve promised Harper well north of $200MM and quite possibly $300MM or more. At present, Giancarlo Stanton’s record-setting 13-year, $325MM contract is not only the largest and longest contract in history — it’s also the only $300MM+ contract ever signed. It’s reasonable to assume that Harper and agent Scott Boras have their sight set on Harper eclipsing that record and establishing a new precedent.

Boras didn’t blatantly say as much today, but he did express on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio) that he plans to pitch Harper as a future Hall of Famer, noting that Harper is only the fourth player to reach free agency at age 25 since 1980 (though technically he turned 26 between season’s end and formally filing for free agency). Boras cited various career-to-date milestones, such as his 180 home runs, that align with the numbers that several Hall of Famers reached at the same point in their own careers. He also told MLB Network Radio’s Casey Stern (Twitter link) that Harper “has the feet, hands and skill to certainly adapt to first base” should a team ever deem it necessary.

Harper’s .249/.393/.496 slash line translated to a 135 wRC+ — that is to say, his overall offensive output was 35 percent better than a league-average bat when weighted for home park and league. That tied Harper for 15th in baseball, and he ranks eighth among MLB hitters (143) since the start of the 2017 season by that same measure. Defensive metrics, meanwhile, were alarmingly bearish on Harper in 2018 despite the fact that he typically rated as a plus defender in prior seasons.

Though Boras has a reputation for finding colorful ways to embellish the value of his clients, there’s also some degree of truth to the fact that Harper (and fellow free agent Manny Machado) is a in rarefied air as a free agent at this stage in the career. The former No. 1 overall pick and NL MVP is reaching free agency at the same age at which Aaron Judge embarked on his sophomore season, for instance. Realistically, there hasn’t been a 26-year-old free agent with the ceiling of Harper or Machado since Alex Rodriguez reached the open market and signed a then-jaw-dropping 10-year, $252MM contract with the Rangers. A-Rod was, incredibly, a year younger than Harper when he hit the open market and was also more accomplished, but the very fact that it’s been nearly two decades since a hitter of this caliber reached free agency at this age is telling when looking at the type of contract Boras and Harper will likely pursue over the next few months.

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129 Comments

  1. Ry.the.Stunner

    7 years ago

    I didn’t realize length was measured in dollars.

    1
    Reply
    • bobtillman

      7 years ago

      The dollar bill is exactly 6 inches long for a reason……

      1
      Reply
      • RedFeather

        7 years ago

        Bob.. we all know it’s closer to 4. Get over it

        6
        Reply
      • petfoodfella

        7 years ago

        Except it’s 6.14″

        Reply
        • bobtillman

          7 years ago

          The dollar bill you mean…….

          Reply
  2. xabial

    7 years ago

    Now we know the $ floor? Trust Chelsea Janes, Barry Svrluga more than Heyman, if they’re source of this leaked offer.

    4
    Reply
    • imgman09

      7 years ago

      Lol,your LOST!!!!

      2
      Reply
      • xabial

        7 years ago

        you’re*

        12
        Reply
      • aceofrainbows

        7 years ago

        …We found a heyman burner account.

        3
        Reply
  3. RedFeather

    7 years ago

    Meh.. Washington I hate to say it but this will be similar to the FA Pujols situation. Your team will take a shot but assume the worst. I’m willing to bet it was a 285 over 10 or so. Reason being it’s a great start and offer to see if he will stay in Washington. That said he will not get 400 million unless it’s an 18 year contract. My gut says he gets slightly over Stantons deal with a higher annual average. 350 over 10 or 396 over 12.

    Reply
    • RedFeather

      7 years ago

      Side note. If you’re going to make over 30-40 million per year in your 20s and 30s.. WTF would you need an opt out??

      Reply
      • sameichel

        7 years ago

        Maybe he would want a better situation, or higher annual salary

        Reply
        • sameichel

          7 years ago

          For less years

          Reply
        • RedFeather

          7 years ago

          I agree.. me too.

          Reply
      • martras

        7 years ago

        There’s a big difference between $30M and $40M annually so I’m not sure you’re being unbiased here. It’s also based on contract value into the future.

        $30M this year won’t be $30M in 10 years, probably. Joe Mauer signed an 8 year $23M/yr deal for near top AAV and years in 2010. That’s a big contract today, but if we were to re-do it now, it’d be $30M / year easy.

        It doesn’t matter how wealthy people are, they still expect equity. They want to be paid top dollar for their services if they’re expected or are producing at top levels.

        2
        Reply
        • JrodFunk5

          7 years ago

          There isn’t a big difference between 30-40 million dollars annually. His lifestyle will remain identical. The law of diminishing returns. If anything, it ensures his team will have less to spend on other talent. This is pure greed.

          Reply
  4. yankeemanuno23

    7 years ago

    Gotta say that Harper still has many wondering if he is a real leader and with a slight selfish streak. Deals like Stanton’s (yrs and $) should be frowned upon by owners & GM’s because rarely do clubs get top performance results from them. So Harper wants to play the “free agent” & get a Range – Ok for him. How much can he spend in a lifetime? So where are the true players who play for more than $? Think Jeter, Griffey, AAron, Yaz, Rypken, Mariano,- see ya- from another era to a selfish one. Let Harper go Nats you need more than his game to win a World Series !

    3
    Reply
    • thefenwayfaithful 2

      7 years ago

      Jeter played for more than money? Maybe but he didn’t ever take any hometown discount.

      I think those rose colored glasses are hurting your eyes a bit!

      6
      Reply
      • User 4245925809

        7 years ago

        Over paying Jeter all those seasons at the end of his career might have been why Cano chose to ask for such an exorbitant deal when he walked, tho not positive of course. Jeter was raking in 15m+ end of his career. No reason for the 2x better (then) bat of Cano to not ask for far more than that, not to mention Cano was still then a GG caliber fielder while jeter could barely move, receive a GG or not

        Reply
        • jolink65

          7 years ago

          Nah, Cano knew what he was worth and Seattle offered him three more years and $65 million more than the Yankees were willing to offer. Yankees were gunshy after the disaster that was A-Rod’s second contract and were staunchly against giving out any more ten-year deals. I agreed with their stance and, while I was sad they lost Cano, I didn’t disagree with him and his choice.

          Reply
    • FromTheJuicingEra

      7 years ago

      How is it possible to misspell “Ripken”??

      10
      Reply
      • fasbal1

        7 years ago

        Maybe he meant to say Mark Rypen..

        2
        Reply
        • MaverickDodger

          7 years ago

          I think even that is spelled “Rypien” but haven’t double checked. I just got a good laugh from the back and forth and off-the-wall reference

          1
          Reply
    • LordBanana

      7 years ago

      Those guys made hundreds of millions of dollars

      Reply
    • teufelshunde4

      7 years ago

      You think any of those guys wuldnt have shot for the highest dollar. Aaron played before Reserve Clause was destroyed. Aaron had no choice which team or for how much he earned.
      Honestly sit back and look at what owners make in all the major sports of the world. Players have short careers, owners are billionaires these days…

      Sorry but every player should seek to earn whatever the market will pay for their services.

      Let me ask you this Yank, would you stay at your current employer if another company offered you 4 or 5 times the money?

      The answer is no..

      4
      Reply
      • JrodFunk5

        7 years ago

        4 or 5 times? Is someone offering Harper $1.2-1.5 billion?

        Reply
      • bhambrave

        7 years ago

        Chipper and Andruw both took hometown discounts. Chipper re-worked his deal in 2005 to give the team more payroll flexibility.

        Reply
    • twentyforty

      7 years ago

      I hope you work for 20% less than some of your co-workers just because you’re a team guy.

      1
      Reply
    • petrie000

      7 years ago

      Something tells me you’ve never turned down a big raise just because you love your job…

      Reply
      • JrodFunk5

        7 years ago

        Probably because he’s an average American? Also if he played baseball there is a much better chance he would actually love his job? Comparing an average American turning down and raise to Bryce Harper effectively saying $300 million is not enough money is apples and oranges.

        Reply
  5. greatd

    7 years ago

    He’s got great upside no one will debate that but
    a 1.3 war player getting 300 – 400 mil seems a bit crazy to be honest.

    I think Trout and Betts are the only guys worth that much.

    8
    Reply
    • bobtillman

      7 years ago

      … baring major injury (maybe!).both are going to get a lot more than 300M in two years……

      1
      Reply
    • Pab

      7 years ago

      Mostly agreed. Trout #1 and betts Prob #2. Bert has shown more growth and improvement in his few years than Bryce. Harper is inconsistent and I don’t care as much as analytics, the guy doesn’t hit .300. Can justify in my book.

      1
      Reply
    • nats7

      7 years ago

      Nobody is worth that much

      Reply
  6. thefenwayfaithful 2

    7 years ago

    I can’t see Harper not exceeding $350 million and that probably should have been the hometown discount offer.

    You have to look at the Stanton deal as the floor and one could make an argument Stanton took a minor hometown discount at the time to secure his future with the only franchise he’d known. The fact that the contract to date doesn’t look fantastic, but not bad means it can’t be discounted as a bad deal. So I’d see a 13/$360 being the minimum offer to qualify as an offer to Boras.

    But again, at the end of the day a guys value is what teams are willing to pay. Machados lack of hustle may make teams more wary of a guy who when his skills diminish won’t grit it out. He may max out at 8-9 years. Harper hustles and plays with a ton of energy. When his skills diminish he can still have a great energy in the clubhouse and show young upcoming stars how to play the game right. In my eyes he has way more intangibles then Machado.

    5
    Reply
  7. emt126

    7 years ago

    I will take Stanton over Harper any day. Look at the numbers. Harper is the most overrated player in the game

    4
    Reply
    • Senioreditor

      7 years ago

      The hyperbole from some folks????

      1
      Reply
    • west212

      7 years ago

      Agreed… Even in a semi-down year for Staton he exceeded Harper. On top of that, the Yankees aren’t on the hook for the whole contract making it pretty good value for them relative to what Harper will probably get IMHO.

      1
      Reply
  8. JayRyder

    7 years ago

    Giants. 10/400

    1
    Reply
    • RedFeather

      7 years ago

      Lol

      Reply
    • Rex Block

      7 years ago

      Giants are old and slow. They need to rebuild. Harper is not the answer there.

      3
      Reply
    • PeeWeeGaskins

      7 years ago

      Giants need to rebuild, bigly.

      1
      Reply
      • woodstock005

        7 years ago

        No new GM will change mind in a hurry
        Att park draw fan GM Want sell out every game need superstar
        Keep 3 million fan going
        Three World Series is enough
        Enough fame

        Now time to maintain the fan
        If rebuilds 1 millions the most

        Reply
    • aceofrainbows

      7 years ago

      Please please no

      2
      Reply
  9. StairBob

    7 years ago

    Why in the name of Willie Mays would anyone pony up $300 million for Harper? He’s a real good player, but to suggest, as his agent “The Cancer” Scott Boras is saying, that he is a Hall of Famer is beyond ridiculous. Comparing him to A-Rod might just be appropriate, as it is likely that neither will have won a World Series, and neither would have been able to be referred to as a team player.

    1
    Reply
    • sameichel

      7 years ago

      Haha nice where were in 2009 when a rod and the bankies won the World Series?

      Reply
      • sameichel

        7 years ago

        One

        Reply
  10. TooToughToScuffle

    7 years ago

    Harper is a solid investment if you are going to spend money anyway, but for the Nationals Harper is the face of the franchise.

    2
    Reply
  11. sameichel

    7 years ago

    Or are you saying at the time of contract?

    Reply
  12. SnappingThanos

    7 years ago

    Tampa Bay Rays are going to sign Harper and Machado.

    2
    Reply
    • Gwynning's Anal Lover

      7 years ago

      I thought for sure it was going to be the Pirates. It would justify why they’ve been penny pinching all of these years.

      Reply
      • Slevin

        7 years ago

        Why no love for the Reds?

        Reply
  13. NaiveYouAre

    7 years ago

    I’m hoping the Dodgers stay far way from Harper. He is not worth the money he thinks he is. All hype! The team that overpays for his services will be regretting it for a long time. Fingers crossed that the Giants sign him. hehe

    2
    Reply
    • adkuchan

      7 years ago

      Not ALL hype. He did win a MVP. He had a lousy 1st half this season. Likely pressing because of this offseason. Once he won the HR derby he was back to being an excellent player. I’d prefer him not play in my division, because every time he’s in the box against my team I expect him to do damage.

      Reply
      • Priggs89

        7 years ago

        More likely bad luck the first half of the season. He was rocking a ~.220 BABIP the first half. For a guy that has had a BABIP up over .350 3 of the 4 years prior, that seems more like a fluke than anything – especially when you look at his batted ball profile and see he hit the ball harder than he ever has.

        2
        Reply
        • Papabueno

          7 years ago

          Ha. “Bad Luck”. Is that you FP Santangelo?

          Reply
    • Senioreditor

      7 years ago

      Current Dodgers management does not sign massive contracts for free agents. He will not be a Dodger.

      Reply
      • aceofrainbows

        7 years ago

        Hopefully zaidi keeps that up with the Giants. I want no part of Harper

        Reply
  14. nats7

    7 years ago

    I’m a Nats fan and no way do I want them to pay more than 30 mil for 5 years-no opt out ——or let another team sign him and pay for an inconsistent star.Obviously a contract that will be constrictive and set your teams course.

    2
    Reply
  15. SoCalBrave

    7 years ago

    Boras saying that he could play 1B easily should be interpreted as Harper is damaged goods. Most everyone knows that he doesn’t take extra bases, or gets to flyballs like he used to. His legs are shot. The gNats did him no favors playing him in centerfield.

    1
    Reply
    • Papabueno

      7 years ago

      Harper wanted to play CF. He said it was his favorite of the three OF positions. Now, I will agree that he’s not very good, and that he’s a lot slower than he was 5-6 years ago, but the Nats didn’t force him to play CF.

      Reply
  16. Knowthemarket

    7 years ago

    Just let’s you know at least Harper and Boras are convinced.

    1
    Reply
  17. Bruin1012

    7 years ago

    Anyone who pays 10 plus years at 30 plus million is going to regret signing this guy.

    3
    Reply
    • Vedder80

      7 years ago

      Why? Teams are making more money than ever before and you are likely to get 5 seasons at least of any deal before seeing major decline, and that is assuming he is unable to produce into his mid 30s which is a worst case scenario.

      Reply
      • Bruin1012

        7 years ago

        Because quite simply except for one outlier year he has not earned that type of contract with his play on the field.

        4
        Reply
      • Slevin

        7 years ago

        If teams are making so much money why is there such a huge disparity with all teams payrolls?

        3
        Reply
      • Bocephus

        7 years ago

        This sport more than any other needs a financial level playing field.

        3
        Reply
        • martras

          7 years ago

          Why do you feel this way? There’s more competitive balance in baseball than any other major sport in the United States. Teams who haven’t played in the post season in the past 10 years.

          Mariners. That’s it. Every other team in baseball has been to a playoff game in the past 10 years. Most of them in the last 5.

          The Yankees are used as proof of lack of competitive balance. Their enormous payroll makes it impossible for small teams to beat them. They haven’t won their division since 2012 and haven’t been to the World Series since 2009.

          1
          Reply
        • adkuchan

          7 years ago

          In 2017, the lowest earning team made 210 million. Any team claiming to be too poor to compete is full of it.

          2
          Reply
      • nats7

        7 years ago

        Sure pay him properly for first 5 years -then grossly overpay him for the last.Just look (Zimmerman)-been holding us back for 2 -3 years now

        1
        Reply
  18. Yanks2

    7 years ago

    Future hall of famer and he’s only had one great season

    4
    Reply
    • Haha3121`

      7 years ago

      Could not have set is better myself

      3
      Reply
    • martras

      7 years ago

      Boras would market my dead grandma as a future HoF’er. Hey, it works for him. Teams eat this stuff up which is how you get Eric Hosmer at 8 years $144M and a crippled Padres team for the majority of the next decade.

      1
      Reply
      • citizen

        7 years ago

        Hosmer isn’t the reason the Padres will be crippled. It’s bad management and poor decisions like trading an injured player. You know the Padres drafted players like Ozzie Smith and Fred mccgriff and other future Cardinals players in the 80s but traded them away early in their careers.

        Reply
  19. Vickers

    7 years ago

    Sources say it was under $400mil. You don’t say! Gotta think he would’ve accepted if it was in that neighborhood. Is some team really gonna pay Huge money for the entirety of the back end of his career? I know why the Marlins paid Stanton (it was borderline criminal), but I have to believe the climate is more stable these days and teams will stick to more bang for the buck in the younger, cheaper players.

    Surely, Boras will be making a case for the variety of revenue streams a franchise player brings to make up for the exorbitant cost. Genius to line Harper up on the cover of MLB The Show 19 as he hits Free Agency, btw. I would love to see the cost analysis from the organization that pulls the trigger.

    Alternatively, teams may bank on an early opt out and only pay for the prime years, but one would think the front loaded contract would disincentivize this strategy tremendously.

    1
    Reply
    • heater

      7 years ago

      I don’t think the cover of a video game is going to get Harper paid a cent more in free agency. Also free agents don’t come any younger than Harper. And the Nats never front load a contract. I do agree that he won’t get as big a payday as predicted though.

      Reply
      • martras

        7 years ago

        It will. Everything which make a player more marketable and desirable has an impact on their contracts. Teams don’t just buy on the field performance. They buy fan excitement, publicity and marketability, too.

        1
        Reply
      • Vickers

        7 years ago

        I agree won’t get paid as much as reported, but I’m on the same page as martras, marketability adds another layer that the fans don’t always consider when evaluating the big payday. In fact, that has been Boras’ Ace! It’s what gives him the leverage and allows teams to justify the expenditure.

        Reply
  20. CardsNation5

    7 years ago

    I bet that he said no, because he knows that the Nats aren’t going anywhere. Aging roster and very overrated. I wouldn’t be shocked if he signs with St. Louis

    1
    Reply
    • billysbballz

      7 years ago

      I don’t think the Nats are too old and I actually think they have solid starters and are fixing there bullpen. There offense has big potential it lets be honest, Harper had a down year and is looking to get paid top money off a down year. Plus he’s not a cf, he’s an average defensive outfielder. His ultimate position may wind up at first. Trout value us soo much higher then Harpers. No comparison. Machado value as a 3rd basemen and not a SS which he’s not very good at is also a bit higher if not for his knee concerns.

      1
      Reply
    • cubswon

      7 years ago

      You are correct in that the Nats are on the decline as evident with them missing the postseason last year. They lost Murphy too and the Braves and to a lesser extent, the Phillies have caught and surpassed them. BUT, why would he sign with STL? The Cubs and Brewers are clearly better than STL and the Cards have no real prospect of changing that anytime soon. The Dodgers may get him as they will lose Machado and he’d be close to his hometown (Vegas). We shall see.

      Reply
    • Vickers

      7 years ago

      If you think about a 14 year contract, the Nats could blow up and grow their roster two or three times in that span. Just look at what the Red Sox have done in the last 14 years.

      Reply
  21. homer 2

    7 years ago

    One player does not make a team especially in Baseball. Arguable the best player in Baseball (Trout) plays on a non contender. Cabrera and Pujols contracts don;t looks good either for the super long contract discussion.. The post Peds age does not support much once you hit mid thirties. Even Pedroia who is the ultimate competitor looks to be hobbled for the last fours years of his long term contract.. Signing either of these guys for 10 or more years will haunt the franchise..

    3
    Reply
    • petersdylan36

      7 years ago

      I agree completely with you. I will say it feels different that these guys are only 26 and signing big contracts. Instead of say 30. But it defeats the purpose if you sign them for 14 years haha

      2
      Reply
      • Vickers

        7 years ago

        If the team planned on Harper not opting out, then I agree 100%, but the more I think about it, there might be a play for overpaying for his Prime years and watching him opt out to get paid to age somewhere else.

        Reply
    • YanksTilliDie

      7 years ago

      I agree that one player can’t automatically create a new contender, but the situations you listed are all pretty different.

      Pujols was signed his 10-year deal at the age of 32. Miggy signed his 8-year extension at age 32. Pedroia’s contract is actually reasonable, but injuries have certainly caught up to him. He’s the ultimate grinder, though, and clearly a leader for Boston, which adds to his value, despite a decrease in production.

      Harper and Machado will sign 10-year deals, and they’re both only 26 years old, about to start the prime of their careers. Will they be overpaid? Yes, but that’s how free agency works. They’ll both, in all likelihood, get $30-35M per year, but teams would be smart to front-load the deals so they’re paying maybe $40M the first 5 years, and $20-$25 the last 5 years as they leave their respective primes.

      1
      Reply
  22. billysbballz

    7 years ago

    Trout is a 35 plus million dollar 10 year player. Harper?
    Nats released this info on purpose. I can’t see a reunion. But I also can’t see Harper doing much better then that either.

    1
    Reply
    • Vickers

      7 years ago

      No way he will do better than $400. What’s hilarious, the article says “aggressive” and then UNDER $400, not Close to $400 or Almost $400. Seems to intentionally plant the high number without lying. For instance, I would consider $300 Aggressive, and that still fits the bill. What if they offered him 2 years at $100? Super Aggressive, but still under $400, lol. I’m exaggerating a little here, but that’s where my mind goes with this Toolish Propoganda.

      Reply
  23. YanksTilliDie

    7 years ago

    I presume Boras purposely leaked this information, whether it’s factual or not. Although everyone assumed Harper would get close to, if not more than, $400 million, this $300M/10-year deal is now the floor for Boras in his negotiations.

    It’ll be interesting to see how the market progresses. There will be a few sleeper teams that jump in, assuming the negotiations don’t get out of control. But then again, it only takes one BIG-time offer to reset the market.

    Reply
    • phantomofdb

      7 years ago

      While I agree that he’ll get a nice contract over 300, I don’t necessarily agree that this is now “his floor”. He wouldn’t be the first player to turn down a big contract and end up settling for less. Just last year the Mets offered Neil Walker a 3 year 42 million dollar contract extension to stay with them, he turned it down and went to free agency and came out with a 1 year, 4 million dollar contract. Obviously not quite apples to apples because 1 Walker isn’t Harper and 2 there was a bad season in between there. But Moustakas last year also turned down the 17 million QO and then resigned with the Royals for 6.5 million. So I don’t agree that simply having that contract info out there causes that to be a floor

      2
      Reply
      • YanksTilliDie

        7 years ago

        Of course there are outlier situations, but as you said, Neil Walker and Mike Moustakas can’t even sniff Harper’s “legacy” and potential, which will drive Harper’s contract value up. Think about it. The last time a FA of this magnitude was available, Alex Rodriguez in 2001, he completely smashed the former record contract. Arod signed for 10 years/$252 with TEXAS. Nobody saw it coming at the time, but like I said, it just akes one BIG-time offer to reset the market.

        $300 may not be his floor, but I’d be willing to bet it is.

        Reply
    • Vickers

      7 years ago

      You’re on the money. I don’t think teams are as reckless now that the steroid high has worn off, but there’s a huge chance that a team will bet on the Opt out.

      Reply
  24. stansfield123

    7 years ago

    Look. I’m all for spending big on big players: if Trout or Betts were free agents, I’d want my team (the Yankees) to hand them the $450m to $500M it would take to lock them up for the rest of their careers. I don’t even care about the outfield crunch, they could just move players around to make room.

    But Harper isn’t a $400M player.. Harper is ridiculously over-hyped, compared to his actual production in the last three years. Machado has performed closer to the hype, for the most part (he was awful in 2016), but, between the insistence to play shortstop and the behavior issues, he comes with way too much baggage.

    So I don’t consider either a top tier (Alex Rodriguez at age 25 level) free agent. I’d put Harper’s on-field value at $150M for five years (with an opt-out after every single year, if that’s what it takes to get him to sign), and Machado’s at 7 years, $210M (with an opt-out after 3). Anything more, and I think that money could be better spent elsewhere.

    1
    Reply
    • Vickers

      7 years ago

      Machado is probably the better buy because he’s a more well rounded player, but being a household name isn’t something to scoff at, especially for the big markets.

      I have trouble believing that Harper’s defense will age well, unless he really can pull off 1B, lol. Maybe we should let the jury sit on Betts a few years, but if this was Trout, we’d all be going biserck!! I bet he’s thinking he made a huge payday by extending with the Halos.

      Reply
      • Vickers

        7 years ago

        “…*missed* a huge payday…”

        Reply
  25. citizen

    7 years ago

    wow 400 million for a .249 player, jayson heyward, you set the bar!
    just sign mario mendoza to a 500 mill 5 year contract.

    1
    Reply
    • ChiSoxCity

      7 years ago

      lol

      Reply
  26. thestevilempire

    7 years ago

    I was looking at comparisons based simply on MLB service time and production. The closest I found in my search (taking age out of the equation) was that Harper fared closely to Matt Holliday. I believe Holliday had a WAR of 29 or so over his first 7 seasons. Harper has 27. Holliday was definitely an All Star and so is Harper. The real question is what are teams willing to pay for potential? Lets say his production level follows a similar pattern, What is it worth in today’s market?

    2
    Reply
  27. slider32

    7 years ago

    It woulld be hard for any player to live up to the contracts that Harper and Machado will sign this winter. I do think that GMs will pay them on what they think they will do going forward and not on what they have done. On Jeter, fans are fickle, Jeter was overrated with the Yanks even though he is a first ballot Hall of Famer, while you can make a case for A-Rod as the best shortstop and third basemen of All time. He won 2 MVP’s in New NY but wasn’t that well liked., and while I’m at it the writers should wake up and smell the coffee and put Albert Bell in the Hall.

    Reply
  28. Ken M.

    7 years ago

    Benny in Left. Mookie in Center. Harper in right. Martinez at DH.

    Mookie, Benny, Martinez, Harper, Xander, Devers, Pearce, Ghost of Pedroia, Vazquez

    Reply
    • bobtillman

      7 years ago

      You’re forgetting Holt, the wonder-puppy…….not to mention Swihart!!!!!!

      Reply
  29. Papabueno

    7 years ago

    Career averages.
    Stanton: .268/.358/.548 OPS+143, 43HR, 109RBI
    Harper: .279/.388/.512 OPS+139, 32HR, 91RBI
    I don’t think anyone would say that Stanton’s mega contract is good deal for the ballclub (MIA or NYY). Pujols, ARod, Cano, Cabrera, etc are all examples of what happens with big long-term contracts.
    I’m a Nats fan, and I can’t see how Harper and Boras can justify the kind of money they’re throwing around. Maybe the Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox could still build a winning team, while paying Harper more than Stanton, but not the Nationals.
    I’ve watched almost every game of Harper’s career. He’s injury prone and so inconsistent. Add on his decline on the defensive side?
    The Nats need to spend their FA cash on pitching, not to mention 2B and a Catcher. Soto, Robles and Eaton in the OF.
    Adios Bryce!!!

    1
    Reply
    • 619bird

      7 years ago

      Well if the rumors are true then someone in the nats organization felt they had some sort of allegiance or need for Harper.

      I don’t think the nats are finished. They could allocate funds elsewhere to get the team back into playoff contention. However to say they won’t miss him would be an understatement.

      1
      Reply
    • johnrealtime

      7 years ago

      I’m not saying Harper will live up to his contract but to be fair, out of the comparables you mentioned, all of those players were signed until they’re 40 and a 10 year deal for Harper would run until he’s 36. That’s a big difference. The exception would be ARod’s first big contract (which also ran until his mid 30s), which he lived up to

      Reply
      • Papabueno

        7 years ago

        Have you seen how many times Harper has been injured so far? His body is already 30+.

        Reply
        • johnrealtime

          7 years ago

          True, his past injuries are a big factor in such a huge deal

          Reply
  30. SupremeZeus

    7 years ago

    There are only a few teams that should be swimming in those deep waters. Freak injury, unexplained downturn, lightning strike and most organizations are in the wilderness for a decade.

    2
    Reply
  31. Yanks2

    7 years ago

    What if no team wants to pay that much he’s asking for and it turns out like the Mike Moustakas contract where he remains unsigned and had to accept a small contract?

    1
    Reply
    • Cam

      7 years ago

      Harper is a game-changer, and elite. Moose isn’t.

      1
      Reply
  32. antsmith7

    7 years ago

    I would do 12 years, 360 mil with opt outs after years 4 and 8.

    Reply
    • rexastangers

      7 years ago

      Forget opt outs, just front load the contract heavily so you’re paying the big money in his prime and then when he hits the wall in years 8-12 you’re not on the hook for a massive dollar figure like the Angels with Albert or Tigers with Miggy once the player is past his prime.

      1
      Reply
    • Vickers

      7 years ago

      I don’t think he’ll go to year 4 for the Opt out. Age 30 is the better timing for the Arod 2.0 contract.

      Reply
  33. CalcetinesBlancos

    7 years ago

    Whomever signs this guy will regret it by year three, if not sooner.

    1
    Reply
  34. bravesfan

    7 years ago

    Yea baseball contracts are getting a little unreal. Need to shorten the years and overall dollar figure. These cripple teams in the long run. I’m all for players trying to look out for their future. But mlb teams needs to keep an eye on their own future as well. Needs to be a nice balancing act.

    1
    Reply
  35. wickedasitseems

    7 years ago

    $300MIL? To play f-ing baseball? That’s just insane!! But stay loyal people!!

    Reply
    • johnrealtime

      7 years ago

      If you are highly skilled in a highly profitable industry and are not easily replaceable, you are likely to become wealthy. IMO nobody should have 300 million dollars but in the constructs of our capitalistic system, I would much prefer the players get that money than the owners

      3
      Reply
      • its_happening

        7 years ago

        Owners take all the investment risk. They should get their cut. Players can choose another profession if they don’t like all the millions they are making. Yeah, they won’t have money, fame or off-field perks. Oh well. We can’t always get what we want.

        Or fans can stop watching and paying for merch, tickets and MLB packages. That’s how you can get back at owners since you have a dislike for them.

        2
        Reply
        • johnrealtime

          7 years ago

          Ok, you want billionaires to just keep reaping profits off of the game while not really contributing anything. I want the money in the game to go to those who actually make it worth watching.

          (old article but it makes my point if you care to read it : sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sdut-owning… ) Between the constantly moving upward value of the team itself (has an owner ever sold an MLB team for anything other than many many times the amount they paid for it?) and the actual yearly profits that most teams make, it is a cash cow to own a team.

          I don’t have a particular dislike for owners, I just generally feel that the money should be distributed throughout the organization and end up with those that actually bring the fans in. I find the growing trend of defending and being on the side of the 1% in this country strange and unnerving.

          The rest of your comment is just nonsense so I’ll just skip over it unless you want to try and make a more clear point

          1
          Reply
        • DFAed in Gaffa

          7 years ago

          Your mature and intelligent comments have no place here.

          Reply
        • its_happening

          7 years ago

          ^JohnnyFakeTime….your last comment implies you actually read. No evidence to say that part is true.

          You dislike owners, and you’ve probably never owned a business in your entire life. If you had/have, you’d have a much different point of view unless you grew up with a large silver spoon.

          Do I want owners pulling in billions? Actually, what I want is to afford to go to more games. I want to be able to bring my children to more than 1 or 2 games per year. I’d also like to enjoy some ballpark food without getting gauged. So no, I don’t side with the owners but I certainly do not side with self-entitled players thinking they deserve our hard earned dollar. But I know you can’t sympathize with that because you sound self entitled based on your ignorant response.

          Stop crying about the 1%. If you want the 1% to suffer, re-read the rest of the comment you ignored. That part hurts the 1%. Players are also part of the 1% with the money they earn so, technically, you defended the 1%. Take a good look in the mirror; you are part of the strange and unnerving.

          But I already knew that.

          I’m more unnerved by players using millions to buy certain supplements that are illegal. I’m more unnerved by players making it rain in the strip clubs or buying other narcotics to get high while beating the drug tests. But that’s just me. I’m probably in the 1% on this issue.

          Reply
  36. kiddhoff

    7 years ago

    12yr/$425 million front-loaded with several player options.

    1
    Reply
  37. swanhenge

    7 years ago

    I honestly have no dog in this race because BOS is set in the OF, but I’m gonna smirk when no one offers him anything close to $300M. Sorry, those days are over. Pujols, ARod, Cano, etc have shown that its roster suicide to lay out those kinds of contracts. Generational player or not, sooner or later these deals completely hamstring an organization.

    2
    Reply
    • swanhenge

      7 years ago

      How about 2/80?

      Reply
    • Cam

      7 years ago

      Will you be here to say you were wrong when he signs for more than 300m?

      1
      Reply
      • swanhenge

        7 years ago

        Yes I will.

        Just can’t see any team laying out so much risk and constraint. Cubs if anyone. They’re playing possum.

        Reply
        • seth3120

          7 years ago

          Be prepared for that. I agree with you on the deals you mentioned and agree on the point that many front offices are seeing it that way. But three factors tell me it’s not even in question here. One being someone always bites. An organization that needs a face, one that’s all in with a window of four to six years, or someone with a weak farm that can’t trade for an elite player or have one in their system. Two he basically has that deal in his pocket. Off the table my arse if he walks in with a pen he’s a Nat for ten years. Third thing is age which is the big difference between Harper deal and the examples you mentioned. More prime years on the front end(has he even peaked) and less of the down that these deals come with. Again not knocking your overall point about hesitation to offer lifetime deals hoping a guy can even play in the MLB the last two or three years very few teams can or will do that but circumstances are a little different. I think you are looking through the eyes of the majority of teams who aren’t even checking in on the guy but he’s getting 300. That’s the opening bid at the auction. If you can’t do that don’t even grab a paddle

          2
          Reply
        • seth3120

          7 years ago

          That being said he isn’t sniffing 400 that’s ludicrous to suggest. North of 300 but it’ll come down to another 20-40 total or some opt out combo or something creative. In my opinion at the 400 mark you’re overpaying for all years not just the back end

          Reply
  38. Gambit1193

    7 years ago

    you guys really act like Harper is 31-32 years old comparing him to Cano/Arod/Pujols. He’s EASILY getting a 12/300+ somewhere. Lets say in the next 4 years he averages his norms, .279/.388/.512 with 30 homers a year or so and was miraculously a free agent at age 30, you’re saying he wouldn’t be able to net a 6-8 year deal? as a 30 year old Free Agent ?

    1
    Reply
  39. Vickers

    7 years ago

    I’d give 14/$420 to Barry Bonds at age 30 for an AL team! But steroids are gone. I think teams know the difference now, even the desperate ones that think they’re willing to suffer through the end of the contract.

    Reply

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