As expected on the heels of public comments from owner Bob Castellini about his desire to enhance the starting rotation, the Reds are showing early interest in the starting pitching market, per both Jon Heyman of Fancred and Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter links). Both reports list top free-agent starter Patrick Corbin as a pitcher of interest, while Morosi specifically lists J.A. Happ and Heyman adds Dallas Keuchel to the pile. While any of that bunch would be a high-profile addition for the Reds, who’ve largely avoided free agency in recent seasons, Heyman notes that Cincinnati “will consider” top-of-the-market names.
Of course, considering a top-of-the-market arm and actually luring one to Cincinnati are two very different things. As three of the top starters on the market, the trio of Corbin, Keuchel and Happ will have no shortage of interest from contending clubs with clearer paths to a postseason berth. Beyond that, Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park is known as one of the game’s most hitter-friendly environments; to call it a tough sell to convince a top-tier starter to sign in a homer-conducive stadium with a team that lost 95 games in 2018 would be somewhat of an understatement.
[Related: MLBTR’s 2018-19 Free Agent Tracker]
It’s not clear how much money the Reds have to spend this offseason, though Castellini has recently promised a record payroll for the franchise. That certainly sounds encouraging for fans, though it should be noted that Cincinnati’s record payroll is $115MM, and they’re already projected by MLBTR’s Jason Martinez to head into 2019 with a near-$110MM payroll. Both Corbin and Keuchel are candidates to secure $20MM+ annual salaries, and Happ’s annual salary on a new contract figures to check in north of $12MM. Free-agent contracts could, of course, be backloaded — as could a potential offseason extension for second baseman Scooter Gennett. Doing so would lower the team’s projected commitments for the 2019 season and ramp up spending into 2020 and beyond, when Homer Bailey’s albatross deal will be off the books.
It remains difficult to envision the Reds winning a bidding war with larger-market clubs coming off winning seasons and playoff berths, but the very fact that they’re exploring this tier of free agency is a departure from recent offseasons and, accordingly, is of some note. Whether Castellini, president of baseball ops Dick Williams, GM Nick Krall and the rest of the organization’s leadership can persuade a top-notch starter to sign for the next several years, it seems likely that the Reds will be adding some external help to the rotation. Matt Harvey was reportedly a favorite of Castellini during his four-month run with the organization, so at the very least, the Reds could make an earnest run at retaining him and adding another established arm to a rotation whose only locks at present seem to be Anthony DeSclafani and Luis Castillo.
They’ll sign Matt Harvey and then tell the fans they tried
If that is it, 95 – 100 loses are it.
They will lose the fan base for years.
When I go to the menu and tools, there’s a link for 2016-2017 free agent tracker? Might wanna update that.
No reason the reds should sign any SP to more than a year. Just like no small market rebuilding club should. If you can’t draft and develop them you need to fire the GM and or scouting department. This rule applies to all small market clubs.
Plenty of SP were good last year for less than 6 mil.
Fiers, Anibal Sanchez, Miley, buchholz, plenty of options this year.
I’m not seeing the 2016-17 FA Tracker issue. Are you looking on your phone? Desktop? Obviously that shouldn’t be there, so we’ll get it updated.
this makes no sense. none good will take a one year deal. if they dont get a mid rotation arm its pointless to get anyone
So Iverbure what good free agent pitcher is looking for only a one year deal?
Harvey is leaving, period. I think they try to get Eovaldi and Keuchel and end up getting one of the two.
But man, if they could get BOTH of the two…I think they become serious contenders. A rotation of Keuchel, Eovaldi, Castillo, Disco, and one other looks pretty good on paper and we know they have the offense
Need to get at least one of either Corbin, Keuchel, or eovaldi, or this offseason will be a failure, because need to make splash ahead of 150th anniversary
Just like the big red machine was kind of the splash before the 100th
Corbin is going to the Yankees. It’s an obvious fit for both.
I don’t see why the Yankees even need him they have Justus Sheffield coming up
If they throw money at Happ that will be a disaster. If you sign Happ night as well go after old man Morton as well
Happ is aging well. Worth a two year deal.
Both of those pitchers have thrown very well into their thirties. I don’t really understand the point you’re trying to make.
Morton pitched very well last year. As he keeps hinting at calling it quits the contract will be a short length if not 1 year.
They should trade for David Price.
Do not have the money for it.
Adams writes this like he does everything else related to the Reds. Yeah, Steve, they called Corbin’s agent and offered $8M a year.
the Reds are THAT stupid.
With a nod to realism? The largest free-agent deal the Reds have ever given out is Francisco Cordero’s $46MM deal. Obviously they’ve gone well beyond that for in-house commodities like Votto, Phillips, Bailey and Bruce, but they haven’t been huge spenders in free agency.
And you can dislike the fact that I’ve portrayed them as a long shot to sign any of these arms, but the fact that they lost 100+ games and play in a band box isn’t something a free agent pitcher is going to ignore. Perhaps if the 100-loss season could be made to look like a fluke, but the Reds haven’t topped 70 wins since 2014 and haven’t had a winning year since 2013.
If the Reds want to sign any of these guys, they’ll probably have to overpay with an extra year or a substantial gap between the AAV of the next-highest bidder, and that doesn’t look especially likely with the Reds already $5MM from their all-time record payroll.
It’d be one thing if it were clear that they had $60MM+ in 2019 payroll capacity — but a team with a recent cellar-dwelling history that is already within striking distance of franchise-record spending and also plays in a hitters’ park shouldn’t be portrayed as likely to sign a top free agent pitcher.
Just FYI, the Reds haven’t had a 100+ loss season since 1982. Also, if the do get any kind of decent pitching, they definitely can compete.
With the addition on Senzel, Suarez hitting his prime, Peraza continuing to do what he did for the last 3-4 months of the season, Gennett having another strong season, plus Winker and Votto getting on base, they have a strong team if they get the pitching. They also have the prospects to get any player that’s available.
Thank you Ty1990 for the common sense
Agreed but Steve never said they could not compete if they got some pitching just that free agent pitchers will be hard to come by for the Reds
You’re correct. I did look at the Royals’ record, inexplicably, when calling them a 100-loss club in ’18. It doesn’t change the point, though, that a top-end free agent starter is going to need to receive an extra year or a substantially higher AAV over the next bidder to consider this. There’s a reason it doesn’t happen often.
You’re banking on a whole lot going well in that scenario without factoring in any possibility of regression — particularly in the bullpen, where Hughes, Hernandez and Lorenzen are all pretty notable regression candidates when you look beyond their ERAs. In the rotation, they’ll need at least two competent starters.
Of course it isn’t impossible that the Reds will compete next season, and they do have a decent core of position players. But Votto took a step back in terms of power in ’18, Winker is coming off shoulder surgery, Senzel only played 44 games in an injury ruined season, etc.
Given the strength of the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals, it’s a lot to say “If they can just improve 60 percent of their rotation, have all their young players step up and have the bullpen repeat its 2018 success they’ll be good.”
I have no vendetta against the Reds or anything. But I also don’t think they’re as close to contending as the front office is suggesting, unless “record payroll” means they’re going to put $40MM+ into the 2019 pitching staff. Even then, they’re in a tough division to make this kind of jump.
Bravo Steve Adams
Tear down the Great American Smallpark or learn to develop your own. No FA in their right mind is going there. For the time being, since they’ve committed to spending money, is to bottom-feed on the FA market or take on a bad contract (Chatwood, et al).
that crazy talk. hitters go to big parks and arms to small every year. big names go to clubs with bad records every year. sometimes it’s just the money, sometimes the challenge, and sometimes because they are close to home. mostly it’s the money. look at Miami
The issue isn’t that no arm will go to a small ballpark. The argument is getting over simplified here.
This is the issue in the most base terms.
Hitter’s ballpark, losing team (potential or not, they aren’t the A’s/Yankees/etc so there are better options), and a team that traditionally doesn’t spend $
The Indians have said Kluber is available….
Headliner would be? Castillo? Greene? Senzel? At the very least, Cleveland getting Senzel would allow Ramirez to move to 2B and Kipnis to move far away..
Interesting.
But for Kipnis “to move far away”, someone has to take that contract.
so then we have 2 years at 15 million and kill our depth.
It’s actually 3 years for Kluber since he has options for 20 and 21 but you might be right. The Reds have a good offense but even if one of the in house starters improves they will be a number 3 starter at best with a bunch of 4-5th type guys behind him. You would think the asking price would start at Senzel and Iglesias or Greene plus a couple other prospects in at least AA that could help in 20. Think it would be too high a price.
I would think Nick and Iggy would get the Indians attention.
Again, there are no complete teams in the NL.
The NL Central can be won by anyone. The Reds can do it if they stay relatively healthy get some decent pitching. The new pitching coach might help. Add some new arms and lets see what happens.
If they don’t add someone truly ace caliber, what will happen is them at the pirates battling it out for 4th place…
If they do get an Ace, they can maybe challenge STL for 3rd…
Overall the NLC is one of the strongest divisions in baseball right now
“Overall the NLC is one of the strongest divisions in baseball right now.”
That is what most people mouth, but I don’t see it that way. The Brewers made some offseason moves and made it to the 7th game of the NL Championship. If the Reds can do the same thing with pitchers – and they just signed the Brewers pitching coach – then I believe they can surprise in 2019.
Not saying it’s easy. But saying it’s possible.
the Brewers added players to what was already a good offense and a wild card contender overall.
The Reds would be adding pitchers to a rotation that was frankly god awful.
unless they add about 3 quality arms, the rotation will still be decidedly subpar. 1 or 2 bargain signings won’t cut it. (and i’m not entirely sure landing the Brewers pitching coach is a coup… pitching was definitely NOT the strength of Milwaukee…)
the only two ways the Reds and Brewers compare is both happen to play in the same division.
With the exception of Votto, you have a number of very good position players just hitting their prime. A solid closer. That’s the base. Add a few solid major leaguers to that and develop some young players that are under-performing.
Sure, that’s not The Big Red Machine. Then again, neither are the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals. Want to talk about the holes those teams have?
Both have good offenses as well
Two years from now when they have both senzel and Trammell if joey is still performing, and Tucker starts to swing, every guy in their lineup will be all star caliber
Winker and peraza are stars in the making
and a rotation that’s awful. not even ‘young and untested’, or ‘needs to get healthy’… no, awful.
sure, let’s compare them to the rest of the division… which part of the Cubs, Brewers or Cardinals is awful?
so yeah, adding mediocre, bargain bin free agents to awful is not the sort of thing that’s gonna make the Reds a serous threat to the National League. They need a Keuchel+ kind of off-season for the kind of turn around you’re talking about.
I would be thrilled if the Reds landed any of these guys at the right price, but at the end of the day I’m not sure they give up draft compensation to get Corbin or Keuchel. I don’t think it’s unreasonable that one of these guys would want to pitch for Derek Johnson and play with Joey Votto.
They would have to give up there 3rd highest pick.
A 2nd rounder this year.
Well worth it.
When you consider how amazing our offensive could be as soon as 2020 it is definitely worth it
Agreed!
Oh I’m with you absolutely, just not convinced the Reds will pull the trigger.
May put in an offer for Teheran. Shouldnt cost much and may get the Braves to eat some of his contract
Fly ball pitcher at BABP? not a great idea
It’s obvious Corbin market will be driven high by a number of teams before Cashman has to come in and top all the other offers and overpay for the NY Native left hander.
Keuchel would actually be a good fit for the Reds because a severe ground ball pitcher like him probably wouldn’t be affected by Great American Ballpark unless there was a sudden change in his batted ball profile
but he is losing velocity. never was that great but one year
The Reds have no chance,.If they pay one of these guys the big buck then they wont have the money to spend elsewhere.They’re said to be interested in an outfielder and they need bullpen help
The back of the Bullpen is solid, Iggy, Hughes, and Hernandez can lock down any game. The middle relief help they need won’t be too costly, so no, signing a big FA starter will not stop them from shoring up their bullpen. I would also like if they targeted a trade for a starter like Thor or Kluber. It would cost some prospects, but it would keep the payroll in check, and hopefully solidify a rotation. The Reds are poised for a run once they get their Rotation fixed.
Combine a Keuchel, Corbin, or eovaldi with a gio Gonzalez, and a good 6th inning guy to go along with the offense that should be tops in the NL by 2020, and you got a 94+ win team
And what could be the new nasty boys of Hughes, Hernandez, and iggy
Actually maybe even 100
They’re very good, but not nasty. They don’t have the Nasty attitude. They don’t have to be nasty to be very good.
Yes, two pitchers of that quality would put us over the top.
bledrules, have you seen the reds’ prospect list? look at mlb prospect watch and look at the reds. they have a lot of potential and are world series champions in next 5 years. they just need a big starter to help them.
2014 reds payroll was 115 around the middle of the league. league average has gone up 20 million. not sure why people think we cant afford it. they get like 30 million more now in TV money. they might go to 130-140.
Right, and if they are smart they won’t resign Hamilton. He’ll cost them 6 million, and he’s at best a 4th starter. Winker, Schebler, and Senzel should, and probably will be the OF in 2019.
If they’re already close to their record payroll and want one of these players, they should be trying to dump the last year of Bailey on a team like the Orioles or Rangers. The prospect that goes along with him might be a painful pill to swallow, but if it means improving the team they probably have to. Unless they blow past the 115 million mark but still, Bailey would just be a dead roster spot.
Bartolo Colon
Bank on it!
ey is overdrawn
Homer Bailey will be released, period.
I wish.
Big Bog loves him, and thinks he can be a #1 next year.
Cincinnati isn’t signing a 100 million dollar pitcher after the Homer Bailey fiasco. Look for a combination of Lance Lynn or Drew Pomeratz or Charlie Morton via free agency. If it is trades I would think Sonny Gray from the Yankees or Jake Odorizzi from Minnesota or Michael Fulmer from Detroit would be high on the list
Will Brian Cashman pay for Patrick Corbin if the contract exceeds 100m? The Yankees need Corbin more than JA Happ, CC Sabathia, Manny Machado, and Bryce Harper
I don’t know about Happ and Sabathia. He might be around longer, but his contract probably will not end off well. He’s been an incredibly inconsistent pitcher that comes with past injury problems.
I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m a lifelong Reds fan and my patience is running thin… if we have an opening day starter the calliber of Homer Bailey again, or a rotation of 7 of the same medicore names weve been seeing try and fall short for years competing for 3-4 spots, then this will be the 2nd straight year I don’t attend a game. Tired of ownership talking a big game but never going after it.
You want to put butts in the seat? Make moves that show that you care.
I would like to see the Reds sign Gio Gonzalez and trade for Sonny Gray. I think Derek Johnson could right the ship for Gray and although it was a small sample size, Gonzalez did very well when he was traded to the Brewers. 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA.
That makes some sense. The Reds need multiple arms in the rotation and a couple in the bullpen to really solidify their pitching. No need to even bother with Corbin in my mind, one guy doesn’t solve all their needs.
Most of the other teams that will be pursuing Corbin, Keuchel, and eovaldi have offenses that are inferior to what the reds’ offense will be in 2020 and beyond so also to everyone saying they wouldnt like pitching at GABP, all that goes away when your offenses is putting up 6-7 runs a game pitching at yankee stadium and Fenway are the exactly the same with the short right field porches
if that logic really held true, you’d occasionally see a pitcher actually want to join the Rockies…
Colorado is different, the reason No one wants to sign with the Rockies is because in addition to the to the high number hrs, many pitchers can’t deal with the elevation change,
but the offense that supports them massively benefits from those same factors so if pitchers in general really were willing to overlook the obvious negatives of a home park so long as their offense could win them ballgames, it follows they’d be a lot more amenable to pitching there than they are…
Just saying that the examples you used to support this theory (fenway and Yankee Stadium) are maybe not the best, since they clearly have other factors helping sell them (such as a history of winning and big spending), and the most extreme example of this is basically the one place you literally can’t seem to be able to pay anyone to pitch in of their own free will.
Reds need pitching, how about Tyler Chatwood for Billy Hamilton?
i’d honestly rather have Chatwood. There’s at least some hope he can be fixed…
Hamilton is fast though and a great center fielder.
and his OBP isn’t much better than mine. If baseball decides to let him steal 1st base, then he may finally have some use offensively
until then, Almora’s just fine if you want a glove-first CF.
Corbin or Kuechel now that is funny. NEITHER are going to Drednatti. Not enough zeros in the universe to get that done.
LOL Bubba. You’re the perfect troll. You have nothing to say, and you don’t make any sense.
Sign one of these guys and trade for Sonny Gray. Problem hopefully solved. I’d also try and make the trade before courting one of these guys it might make it easier to convince them to come to Cincinnati.