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Dallas Keuchel

Which Free Agents Remain For Teams Seeking Rotation Help?

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With the holiday slowing down what had become a very rapid offseason, it works as a natural point to take stock of what players clubs could target in the coming weeks. On Monday, MLBTR looked through the remaining free agent relievers coming off the best 2022 campaigns (one of whom has since signed a major league deal). Now we’ll take stock of the rotation options who are still out on the open market.

There aren’t as many starting pitchers for clubs to sort through as there were bullpen targets, with 19 remaining hurlers who tallied at least 20 rotation innings this past season. We’ll look at the top half of that group by various metrics to determine who teams figure to prioritize as they seek starting pitching depth.

Note: all figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as starters.

ERA (league average — 4.05)

  1. Johnny Cueto (RHP), 3.29
  2. Michael Wacha (RHP), 3.32
  3. Wade Miley (LHP), 3.34
  4. Bryan Garcia (RHP), 3.54
  5. Zack Greinke (RHP), 3.68
  6. Devin Smeltzer (LHP), 4.02
  7. Zach Davies (RHP), 4.06
  8. Aníbal Sánchez (RHP), 4.28
  9. Drew Hutchison (RHP), 4.52

Strikeout rate (league average — 21.6%)

  1. Chase Anderson (RHP), 24.6%
  2. Matt Swarmer (RHP), 22.4%
  3. Bryan Garcia, 20.2%
  4. Michael Wacha, 20.2%
  5. Chris Archer (RHP), 19.2%
  6. Wade Miley, 18.4%
  7. Zach Davies, 17.9%
  8. Chad Kuhl (RHP), 17.8%
  9. Mike Minor (LHP), 16.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.1 percentage points)

  1. Michael Wacha, 14.2 points
  2. Matt Swarmer, 13.1 points
  3. Dylan Bundy (RHP), 11.1 points
  4. Chase Anderson, 10.6 points
  5. Johnny Cueto, 10.5 points
  6. Wade Miley, 9.2 points
  7. Michael Pineda (RHP), 9 points
  8. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), 9 points
  9. Zach Davies, 8.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 42.5%)

  1. Wade Miley, 54.2%
  2. Aaron Sanchez, 51.3%
  3. Chase Anderson, 50.9%
  4. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), 50.2%
  5. Jared Koenig (LHP), 47.2%
  6. Chris Archer, 43.7%
  7. Zach Davies, 42.9%
  8. Johnny Cueto, 42.5%
  9. Zack Greinke, 41.3%

FIP (league average — 4.04)

  1. Johnny Cueto, 3.76
  2. Wade Miley, 4.00
  3. Zack Greinke, 4.03
  4. Michael Wacha, 4.14
  5. Chase Anderson, 4.37
  6. Chris Archer, 4.49
  7. Aaron Sanchez, 4.61
  8. Dylan Bundy, 4.66
  9. Zach Davies, 4.83

Innings pitched

  1. Johnny Cueto, 153 1/3
  2. Dylan Bundy, 140
  3. Zack Greinke, 137
  4. Chad Kuhl, 137
  5. Zach Davies, 134 1/3
  6. Michael Wacha, 127 1/3
  7. Chris Archer, 102 2/3
  8. Mike Minor, 98
  9. Drew Hutchison, 89 2/3

Rangers Release Dallas Keuchel

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SEPTEMBER 5: Keuchel has been released, according to his transactions log at MLB.com.

SEPTEMBER 4: The Rangers announced that left-hander Dallas Keuchel has been designated for assignment.  Left-hander John King was called up from Triple-A to take Keuchel’s spot on the active roster.

Keuchel was signed to a minor league deal in late July, and his contract was officially selected to the big league roster on August 27.  Unfortunately for Keuchel, his two starts in a Texas uniform were disasters, as he allowed seven runs in each outing and has a 12.60 ERA to show for his 10 innings as a Ranger.

It has been a rough season overall for the 34-year-old, who has a 9.20 ERA over 60 2/3 cumulative innings with the Rangers, Diamondbacks, and White Sox.  Beginning the season in Chicago, Keuchel struggled to the point that he was released in late May, with the Sox eating the approximate $13MM still owed to Keuchel in the final year of his three-year, $55.5MM contract.

The D’Backs and Rangers therefore only had to pay Keuchel the prorated portion of a Major League minimum salary during his brief time on their active rosters, as the White Sox covered the rest of the bill.  It was a low-cost risk for the two clubs to see if Keuchel could benefit from a change of scenery, yet the veteran struggled at every stop.

While there has long been speculation about how long Keuchel’s ground-heavy, low-strikeout approach would continue to be successful, the lefty was still a front-of-the-rotation arm as recently as 2020, when he finished fifth in AL Cy Young Award voting in his first season with the White Sox.  However, Keuchel’s numbers already declined considerably in 2021, as he started to allow considerably more hard contact and his walk rate fell.  Those problems have only deepened in 2022, with Keuchel’s 10.2% walk rate falling in only the 20th percentile of all pitchers.

It seems a given that Keuchel will pass through waivers again, and it seems likely that the Rangers will release him rather than outright him to Triple-A.  The southpaw’s career track record could land him another minors contract during the offseason, yet as he approaches what would be his age-35 season, the possibility exists that Keuchel is simply no longer an effective Major League pitcher.  Retirement could be a possibility after 11 MLB seasons, but with that 2020 performance still so recent, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see Keuchel keep grinding to see if he could get his career back on track.

Rangers Select Dallas Keuchel’s Contract

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TODAY: The Rangers have officially announced the selection of Keuchel’s contract from Triple-A

AUGUST 26: The Rangers announced that Dallas Keuchel is slated to start tomorrow evening’s game against the Tigers. Texas placed southpaw Cole Ragans on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 23, due to a left calf strain. The Rangers already have a vacancy on the 40-man roster, so no additional transaction will be necessary to formally select Keuchel’s contract.

It’s a return to the big leagues for the 2015 AL Cy Young award winner, who will be on his third team of the 2022 season. Keuchel opened the year with the White Sox but was released in May after posting a 7.88 ERA over eight starts. The veteran southpaw signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks and made it back to the majors. He was tagged for 22 runs (20 earned) in 18 2/3 frames, however, and Arizona also let him go.

Texas rolled the dice on Keuchel last month, signing him to a minor league pact. He’s spent the past few weeks at Triple-A Round Rock, going 23 1/3 innings over four outings (just under six frames per start) with an excellent 2.31 ERA. Keuchel has walked an elevated 12.1% of batters faced there, but he’s induced ground-balls at a huge 64.9% clip. That’s more in line with the grounder numbers he racked up at his peak with the division-rival Astros than the even 50% rate (a strong but not elite mark) he’s posted with Chicago and Arizona this year.

Keuchel adds a veteran option with a lengthy track record of career success to the Texas rotation for the stretch run. The Rangers will only pay him the prorated portion of the $700K league minimum for any time he spends in the majors, with the White Sox otherwise on the hook for his $18MM salary this year (plus a $1.5MM buyout on a 2023 option in his original contract with Chicago). The 34-year-old will return to the free agent market this offseason, and a strong showing over the season’s final month could aid his efforts to find a big league deal over the winter.

Ragans was called up for his major league debut earlier this month. The former first-rounder has made four starts, allowing ten runs (nine earned) in 18 1/3 frames. Texas hasn’t provided any indication whether he’s expected to return before the end of the season. The 24-year-old is looking to carve out a back-end role in next year’s rotation.

Rangers Sign Dallas Keuchel To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers have signed Dallas Keuchel to a minor league contract, per a team announcement. The 2015 AL Cy Young winner will soon report to Triple-A Round Rock.

Texas becomes the third team of the year to roll the dice on Keuchel. The two-time All-Star began the season with the White Sox, playing out the final campaign of the three-year free agent deal he signed over the 2019-20 offseason. Keuchel had thrived in the first season of that deal, posting a 1.99 ERA through 63 1/3 innings during the shortened campaign. He couldn’t maintain that production over a longer showing the following year, as the veteran southpaw was hit hard for a 5.28 ERA across 162 frames last season.

While the Sox surely hoped that Keuchel could bounce back this year, that hasn’t proven the case. He was tagged for a 7.88 ERA through his first eight starts with the South Siders, posting a matching 12.2% strikeout and walk rate. Chicago released him in late May, and he hit the open market after passing unclaimed through waivers. The Diamondbacks added him on a minor league deal a few days later, and he returned to the majors in the desert by the end of June. Arizona pitching coach Brent Strom had worked closely with Keuchel during his heyday with the Astros, but their second stint together proved brief.

Keuchel made just four starts for the Snakes. He served up 22 runs (20 earned) through 18 2/3 frames, although he did post a respectable 18:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Still, the volume of hard contact he surrendered was enough for Arizona to cut him loose within a few weeks.

There’s no risk for the Rangers in trying their hand at getting Keuchel back on track. The White Sox remain on the hook for his salary, and Texas would be responsible only for the prorated portion of the $700K minimum salary if he makes the majors. Lack of rotation depth has been a problem, with each of Taylor Hearn, Glenn Otto and Spencer Howard posting an ERA of 5.40 or higher. Keuchel adds 11 years of MLB experience and a robust list of career accolades to the upper levels of the organization, although his 2022 results have been worse than those of Hearn and Otto.

Diamondbacks Designate Dallas Keuchel, Reinstate Ian Kennedy

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July 21: The Diamondbacks have announced their slate of roster moves, with Keuchel being designated for assignment. His active roster spot will go to right-hander Ian Kennedy, who has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list. With the open spot on the 40-man roster, righty J.B. Bukauskas has been reinstated from the 60-day IL and optioned to Triple-A.

July 20: The Diamondbacks have designated veteran left-hander Dallas Keuchel for assignment, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). The team has not yet formally announced the move.

It’s the second DFA of the season for Keuchel, who was cut loose by the White Sox earlier this year while playing out the third and final season of a three-year, $55.5MM contract. The former AL Cy Young winner posted a pristine 1.99 ERA in 11 starts with the ChiSox during the shortened 2020 season but logged a lackluster 5.28 ERA in 30 starts a year ago before taking another step back in 2022.

Keuchel was rocked for a 7.88 ERA with the Sox, tallying just 32 innings despite making eight starts. The D-backs brought him in on a minor league deal after he cleared waivers and became a free agent, hoping that a reunion with former Astros pitching coach Brent Strom — now the pitching coach in Arizona — might help Keuchel tap into some of his prior success. That, however, hasn’t proven to be the case. Keuchel somewhat remarkably struggled even more with the Snakes, yielding 22 runs (20 earned) in just 18 2/3 frames before today’s DFA.

To Keuchel’s credit, he did post markedly improved strikeout and walk rates in Arizona. After posting identical 12.2% strikeout and walk rates in Chicago — both among the worst marks in the league for starters — he turned in a 20.2% strikeout rate against a 7.9% walk rate with the D-backs. The strikeout rate is still below average, but that walk rate is solid, and Keuchel can still induce grounders at an above-average rate (albeit nowhere near his peak rate when he was perennially among the league leaders).

Whether that’s enough for another club to take a look remains to be seen. Keuchel will be placed on waivers within the week and will surely clear a second time and again become a free agent. He’ll likely settle for a minor league deal wherever he lands next.

Diamondbacks To Select Dallas Keuchel

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Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo informed reporters, including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, that lefty Dallas Keuchel will start Sunday’s game for the club. Keuchel isn’t currently on Arizona’s 40-man roster, meaning a corresponding move of some kind will be required.

Keuchel, 34, began the season with the White Sox, in the final season of the three-year deal he signed with them prior to the 2020 campaign. His first season of the deal was brilliant, as he threw 63 1/3 innings in the shortened season with a 1.99 ERA. However, there were reasons to be skeptical of those results, with the advanced metrics grading him less kindly, possibly due to his .255 BABIP and 4.7% HR/FB rate. Indeed, the pendulum swung the other way in 2021, with Keuchel’s ERA shooting up to 5.28. In 2022, things got even worse, as his ERA was at 7.88 after eight starts when the White Sox released him.

Once Keuchel cleared release waivers, any other team could sign him for the prorated league minimum rate, with the White Sox on the hook for the remainder. The Diamondbacks stepped up and offered him a minor league deal, reuniting Keuchel with Brent Strom, who was the pitching coach with the Astros during Keuchel’s best seasons but is now with the D-Backs. That deal came with opt-outs on June 25, July 3 and July 11. With yesterday being the first of those opt-outs, it’s possible that motivated the team to make the move, though it’s not known if Keuchel indeed triggered his opt-out. Since signing that deal, Keuchel made a pair of starts at the Complex League level, logging 12 innings and allowing six earned runs, 17 strikeouts and a pair of walks.

The Diamondbacks have used four primary starters this year: Zac Gallen, Madison Bumgarner, Merrill Kelly and Zach Davies. The fifth slot was taken by Humberto Castellanos for most of the season until he landed on the IL at the end of May. Since then, the club has been patching the last spot together, giving the occasional spot start to the likes of Tyler Gilbert and Luke Weaver. But it seems now they will give the ball to Keuchel and see if he can take over a role and stabilize the back end of the rotation.

Currently 32-41, the Diamondbacks are 8 1/2 games out of a playoff spot at the moment. With just over a month to go until the August 2 trade deadline, the club will likely be considering doing some selling in that time, at least when it comes to players with short windows of control. Keuchel himself isn’t likely to garner huge amounts of interest, given that he just had to settle for a minor league deal. However, it’s possible Arizona will trade another member of the rotation between now and then. Zach Davies is on a one-year contract and headed towards free agency at the end of the year. There is a mutual option for 2023, though those are almost never picked up by both sides. After a miserable season with the Cubs in 2021, Davies is having a nice bounceback here in 2022, putting up a 3.94 ERA through 80 innings.

If the club pulls the trigger on a deal, Keuchel could potentially provide some veteran innings down the stretch. For him personally, he’ll look to show some improved results before returning to free agency at the end of the year.

Diamondbacks, Dallas Keuchel Agree To Minor League Deal

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TODAY: Keuchel’s deal actually contains three opt-out dates, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  The three dates are June 25, July 3, and July 11.

JUNE 6: The Diamondbacks have agreed to terms on a minor league contract with free agent lefty Dallas Keuchel, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). He’ll head to Triple-A for the time being but has an eventual opt-out date worked into the deal if he’s not added to the MLB roster by that time. Keuchel is represented by the Boras Corporation.

It’s a no-risk deal for the D-backs, who’ll owe only the prorated league minimum to Keuchel for any time spent in the Majors. The remaining balance of his $18MM salary will still be paid by the White Sox, who released him late last month. The Sox are also still on the hook for the $1.5MM buyout on Keuchel’s 2023 option.

Keuchel is headed to the minors for now, but the new agreement reconnects him with D-backs pitching coach Brent Strom, who was Keuchel’s pitching coach during his peak years with the Astros. At least for now, the two won’t be working side-by-side on a daily basis with Strom on the big league staff, but the connection quite likely played a role in the mutual interest between player and team.

The 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner, Keuchel was a force atop the Houston rotation from 2014-18, pitching to a 3.28 ERA with a 20.2% strikeout rate, a strong 6.4% walk rate and a sky-high 60% ground-ball rate over the life of 950 1/3 innings. That included his standout 2015 campaign, wherein Keuchel paced the American League in wins (20), shutouts (two) and innings pitched (232) — all while pitching to a career-best 2.48 ERA. He hasn’t replicated that success since, but that was one of three sub-3.00 ERAs that Keuchel posted in a four-year span.

Despite the impressive resume with Houston, Keuchel’s first trip through the free-agent process didn’t pan out as hoped. Saddled with the burden of draft-pick compensation after rejecting a qualifying offer from the Astros, Keuchel wound up waiting until after the 2019 draft to sign a prorated one-year deal with the Braves. (In waiting that long, he shed the draft-pick compensation provision.)

It was a surprising scene, likely due to a combination of multiple factors. The draft compensation undoubtedly played a role, and Keuchel surely hit the market with lofty multi-year goals that many teams found unreasonable. He’d also had multiple IL stints since that Cy Young year and reached the market on the heels of a 2018 season that saw him post his lowest strikeout and ground-ball rates since his 2012 rookie season.

Keuchel still reeled in a prorated $20MM salary on that deal (about $13MM), and he pitched well down the stretch with Atlanta. In 112 2/3 frames that year, he notched a 3.75 ERA with a revitalized 60.1% grounder rate. It was enough for the White Sox to guarantee Keuchel $55.5MM on a three-year deal as they emerged from a lengthy rebuilding effort.

The first season of that deal proved to be an overwhelming success, as Keuchel turned in a career-best 1.99 ERA over 11 starts (63 1/3 innings) during the Covid-shortened 2020 season. Keuchel got out to a strong start in Year Two of the deal as well, logging a 3.78 ERA through his first 14 starts of the season, but he fell into a disastrous slump shortly thereafter and has yet to really recover.

Keuchel has made 24 starts since June 20 of last year, allowing runs in 23 of them. During that time, he’s pitched to a 7.02 ERA with a bottom-of-the-barrel 12.4% strikeout rate against an elevated 10.2% walk rate. He’s still inducing grounders at a better-than-average 52.2% clip, but that’s a good ways off from his peak levels. It also bears mention that Keuchel has averaged just 87.8 mph on his heater during that span — nearly three miles per hour slower than the 90.4 mph he averaged during that Cy Young-winning season.

Arizona’s top four starters this season have been anywhere from solid to excellent, as each of Zac Gallen (2.40 ERA), Madison Bumgarner (3.31), Merrill Kelly (3.66) and Zach Davies (4.18) have made at least 10 starts and totaled at least 54 innings. The fifth spot has been more of a challenge to fill. Luke Weaver moved to the bullpen earlier in the year and hit the injured list not long after. Humberto Castellanos (nine starts), Tyler Gilbert (tw0) and Caleb Smith (one — which was only one inning) have made the remainder of the team’s starts and generally fared poorly. Castellanos recently hit the injured list with an elbow strain.

Keuchel will give the D-backs some depth to slot in behind that group. He’ll join fellow big league veteran Dan Straily, who has struggled on a minor league deal of his own following a big showing in South Korea, as a non-roster player down in Reno. The Snakes also have the aforementioned Gilbert, righty Luis Frias and former top prospect Corbin Martin on the 40-man roster as options down in Triple-A.

Dallas Keuchel Clears Waivers, Reaches Free Agency

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Left-hander Dallas Keuchel has passed through release waivers unclaimed, reports Andy Martino of SNY. He’s now a free agent and can explore opportunities with other clubs.

This was an inevitability once the White Sox designated Keuchel for assignment over the weekend. The southpaw is still due a bit under $13MM in 2022 salary, plus a $1.5MM buyout on a 2023 club option. No team was going to claim Keuchel and assume that tab, so it was a formality that he’d clear waivers and hit free agency.

Now that he’s available on the open market, the 34-year-old would have more appeal to other clubs. The White Sox will remain on the hook for virtually all of Keuchel’s remaining guaranteed commitments. Any team that signs him would only owe him the prorated portion of the $700K minimum salary for any time he spends in the majors, which would be subtracted from Chicago’s financial outlay.

With no financial risk attached, it seems likely Keuchel will find a major league deal somewhere. Still, that the White Sox cut him loose in spite of a questionable back-of-the-rotation mix points to the extent of the struggles the 2015 AL Cy Young award winner has experienced over the past couple seasons. Signed to a three-year, $55.5MM guarantee over the 2019-20 offseason, Keuchel posted a sterling 1.99 ERA over 11 starts during the shortened 2020 season. Since the beginning of the 2021 campaign, however, he’s been among the least effective starters in the game.

Keuchel stayed healthy and made 32 appearances (30 starts) for the division-winning ChiSox last year, but his rate stats were below-average. He posted a 5.28 ERA — his first season allowing even more than four earned runs per nine since 2016 — across 162 frames. Even at his best, Keuchel has never missed many bats, but he saw his strikeout rate tumble to 13.2% last year. His 54.9% ground-ball rate was still a well above-average mark, but the two-time All-Star had induced worm burners on more than three-fifths of batted balls at his peak.

Those worrisome trends have only been exacerbated this year. Keuchel has a 7.88 ERA through eight starts, the second-highest mark among 137 pitchers with 30+ innings. He has the second-worst strikeout/walk rate differential among that same group, with matching 12.2% marks. Keuchel’s grounder rate is also down a few more points (albeit still strong), at 50.8%. That slow start led the White Sox to cut bait, although another team is likely to give him an opportunity based on his pre-2021 track record.

Keuchel, of course, was one of the game’s best pitchers between 2014-20. He posted four sub-3.00 ERA campaigns during that time as a preeminent ground-ball specialist, helping the Astros to a strong run of success. It’s unlikely he’ll return to that form at this stage of his career, but another club could still see him as a capable back-end option — particularly if he can get his grounder rate to tick back up a few points in a new environment.

The White Sox have had a top-heavy starting rotation this season, which was to be expected. Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and Lucas Giolito have all performed well. Keuchel and offseason signee Vince Velasquez have struggled, while veteran Johnny Cueto has been effective through three starts. Bolstering the back end figures to be a trade deadline focus for general manager Rick Hahn and his staff if the team remains in contention over the coming months, particularly if Velasquez continues to scuffle while holding down the final spot.

White Sox Place Dallas Keuchel On Release Waivers

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TODAY: The Sox announced that Keuchel has been placed on unconditional release waivers.

MAY 28: The White Sox announced that veteran left-hander Dallas Keuchel has been designated for assignment.  Infielder Danny Mendick was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

The move all but certainly ends Keuchel’s stint on the South Side after 51 games and 257 1/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season.  It doesn’t seem likely that another team would claim Keuchel off waivers, since such a move would put that new team on the hook for the roughly $14.1MM Keuchel is still owed for the remainder of the 2022 season.  Should Keuchel clear waivers and then be released, the White Sox would pay the remainder of that salary, and a new team who signed Keuchel could only owe the lefty the prorated MLB minimum salary.

Keuchel signed a three-year, $55.5MM free agent deal with Chicago in the 2019-20 offseason, one of several notable moves made that winter to signal that the Sox were now aiming to win following a rebuilding phase.  The initial returns on the signing were great, as Keuchel posted a 1.99 ERA over 63 1/3 innings during the shortened 2020 season and finished fifth in AL Cy Young Award voting.

Only some flashes of that good form continued into 2021, however, as Keuchel finished with a 5.28 ERA over 162 largely inconsistent innings with Chicago last year.  The decline continued over Keuchel’s first eight starts of 2022, as he has a 7.88 ERA and as many walks (20) as strikeouts over 32 innings.

Never a big strikeout pitcher even during his prime years with the Astros, there were plenty of questions about how well Keuchel’s low-velocity, grounder-heavy approach would hold up as he got older.  Between these concerns and a qualifying offer, Keuchel’s previous free agent bid in the 2018-19 offseason resulted in the southpaw having to wait until June (after the draft) to sign a prorated one-year deal with the Braves.  Keuchel pitched well enough over his 112 2/3 innings with Atlanta to then earn a longer-term commitment from the Sox that offseason, with Keuchel also no longer eligible for the QO.

Batters have a .364 BABIP against Keuchel this year, so there is some amount of misfortune baked into his recent results.  However, hitters are also making some serious contact (as per Keuchel’s barrels and barrel-rate metrics) against the left-hander’s offerings, and his sudden lack of control also isn’t helping his run-prevention efforts.  Keuchel’s 50.8% grounder rate is also the lowest of his career, though still an above-average mark league-wide.

Even with these struggles, it stands to reason that Keuchel’s track record will earn him some attention from one of the many teams looking for rotation help.  A strong defensive team would be a particularly good fit for a groundball pitcher like Keuchel — speculatively speaking, a Cardinals team that has lost Steven Matz, Jordan Hicks, and Jack Flaherty to the injured list could have interest in Keuchel’s services.

The White Sox have been no strangers to pitching injuries themselves this season, and their rotation picture wasn’t helped by Keuchel’s lack of success, even though he remained healthy.  With Keuchel now in DFA limbo, the Sox have Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, and veteran Johnny Cueto making up the rotation, and Lance Lynn is beginning a rehab assignment in his recovery from knee surgery.  Vince Velasquez could continue to make starts until Lynn is ready, but with off-days coming up on May 30, June 6, and June 16, the Sox will get some flexibility in figuring out their upcoming slate of pitchers.

In the bigger picture, it would certainly seem like starting pitching will be a target area for Chicago heading into the trade deadline.  Giolito, Kopech, and Cease have all been very good, Cueto has yet to allow a run over 12 innings of work, and the White Sox certainly hope that Lynn can return to his usual form once his rehab assignment is over.  However, depth is certainly still a concern, as Kopech’s innings will be managed and the Sox can’t know what to really expect from Cueto over the course of a full season.

As well as Keuchel performed in 2020, the signing still has to be considered a misfire for GM Rick Hahn’s front office.  Keuchel was owed $18MM in salary this season, as well as a $1.5MM buyout of a $20MM club option for the 2023 season.  That option was set to vest if Keuchel pitched at least 160 innings this season, but that threshold no longer seems a possibility, even if it never seemed particularly likely that the White Sox would let that option vest.

The Hitch In A Potential Dallas Keuchel Trade

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Almost exactly two years ago, December 30th of 2019, the White Sox signed Dallas Keuchel to a three-year contract that guaranteed him $55.5MM. Keuchel was excellent in the shortened 2020 campaign, throwing 63 1/3 innings with an ERA of 1.99. However, there were reasons to be suspicious of those outcomes, as all of the advanced metrics thought he deserved much worse. (4.30 xERA, 3.98 xFIP, 4.57 SIERA.)

That discrepancy was largely due to his declining strikeout rate, as well as an unsustainable 4.7% HR/FB rate. Keuchel has always been a groundball guy and has never had tremendous strikeout stuff. In his Cy Young season, 2015, he hit his high point with a strikeout rate of 23.7%, just a few ticks above that year’s league average of 20.4%. Since then, the league average has trended north, landing at 23.2% in 2021. Keuchel’s, however, has been steadily dropping and was at 16.3% in 2020.

In 2021, his strikeout rate fell further, landing at 13.2%, and his batted ball luck ran out, sending his ERA soaring up to a career-high 5.28. The advanced metrics felt that was largely deserved, based on the lack of Ks, as evidenced by his 6.20 xERA, 4.74 xFIP and 5.01 SIERA.

With one guaranteed year remaining on his contract, it makes sense for the White Sox to look into trading him for a couple of reasons. First, there’s his diminished effectiveness, as illustrated by those declining strikeout rates and increasing ERA. It’s possible that he could turn things around, but he turns 34 tomorrow, New Year’s Day, meaning he would have to buck traditional aging trends to do it.

Secondly, there’s his salary, as he’ll be paid $18MM in 2022, along with a $1.5MM buyout on a $20MM club option for 2023. The team is in unprecedented payroll territory, for them, having set a franchise record in 2021 by having an Opening Day payroll of $128.7MM. They’re projected to blow way past that in 2022, currently sitting around $180MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

However, the problem with that club option is that it’s actually a club/vesting option. It becomes guaranteed if Keuchel pitches at least 160 innings in each of 2021 and 2022. He’s already hit the first of those benchmarks, as he threw 162 innings in 2021. Another season of 160 innings and that $20MM for 2023 becomes guaranteed. That’s not a difficult line for Keuchel to reach as long as he’s healthy. Over the past eight seasons, he reached that threshold in six of them, if we prorate his 2020 innings total. In 2017, he missed some time with neck issues and came just shy, at 145 2/3 innings. And in 2019, he got to 112 2/3, but that was because he lingered on the free agent market until being signed by Atlanta a few months into the season and didn’t make his season debut until June 21st. In other words, apart from that neck issue in 2017, he’s been a fairly reliable innings eater, meaning he has a decent chance of triggering that option.

This is where it gets tricky to line up a trade. A team with some wiggle room in their budget might be willing to take on Keuchel’s $18MM for this coming season, but they would have to also consider the distinct possibility that Keuchel stays healthy and doubles their commitment, both in dollars and in years. It’s possible a team could acquire Keuchel and try to intentionally limit his innings to prevent the option from vesting, but that type of direct manipulation has the potential to lead to a grievance, either an official one or an unofficial one. As an example of how an unofficial grievance could hurt a team, it could reduce their chances of signing or extending players if they have shown themselves to be underhanded in their dealings with players. Perhaps the White Sox could sweeten the pot for the team on the other end of the deal by including a prospect or two, but the trouble is that their farm isn’t in great shape, at least according to Baseball America, who ranked their system dead last in the league in their most recent Organization Talent Rankings.

Perhaps the best move for the White Sox is to stand pat with Keuchel and hope that he has a bounceback campaign. Their starting five rotation looks to be solid, with Keuchel joined by Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech. However, teams need more than five starters to get through a season and their depth isn’t terribly strong. Jonathan Stiever and Jimmy Lambert are depth options on the 40-man roster, but neither has more than 15 innings of MLB experience, and even their Triple-A numbers aren’t terribly exciting so far. Even if the club finds the money to add another starter, they might need Keuchel’s help to get through the season in an AL Central that is becoming more competitive.

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