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Nationals Notes: Abrams, Garcia, Hernandez, Franco, Corbin

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The Nationals could soon be in line for a shakeup of their infield. Top shortstop prospect C.J. Abrams was arguably the centerpiece of the six-player return for Juan Soto and Josh Bell. The Nats immediately optioned Abrams to Triple-A Rochester, but Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post writes that the club is likely to soon recall the 21-year-old to the majors.

Once Abrams makes his way to Nationals Park, he’s likely to play everyday at shortstop. Dougherty indicates the organization views Abrams as their long-term franchise shortstop, which is hardly a surprise after the club made him a key piece of such a monumental trade. The former sixth overall pick only has a .232/.285/.320 line through his first 46 big league games, but he owns an impressive .311/.366/.503 mark in his first taste of Triple-A action. Baseball America rated him as the sport’s #11 overall prospect on their latest update.

The Nats have already been turning to a young player at shortstop. Luis García has been one of the organization’s more promising prospects for years, but he’s still just 22 years old. The 6’2″ infielder has drawn praise from evaluators for his pure hitting ability. He’s hit plenty of line drives in his limited big league time, but he’s also shown an extremely aggressive approach. García carried a .290 batting average into play tonight, but he’d reached base at just a .295 clip based on a microscopic 0.9% walk rate. (That’s gone up slightly, as he did draw a free pass in tonight’s game).

The jury may still be out on García’s offensive upside, but it’s apparent he’s miscast as a shortstop. Prospect evaluators were divided on his ability to stick at the position long-term, and the results in his big league time have been ghastly. In 568 2/3 career innings at shortstop, García has rated a staggering 19 runs below average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved. Statcast’s Outs Above Average has him at 17 plays below par. As Mike Petriello of MLB.com observed this afternoon (Twitter link), public defensive metrics have rated the Nationals’ shortstops as by far the worst collection of defenders in the majors this season. That’s not entirely on García — the since-released Dee Strange-Gordon and Alcides Escobar also struggled — but it’s clear the team could use a better defender to anchor the infield.

García won’t lose his spot in the starting lineup on a rebuilding team, though. Once Abrams is in the big leagues, García is likely to kick to the other side of the second base bag. He’s rated as a below-average but not quite so disastrous defender at the keystone. Still, there’s reason for Washington to challenge their young players in non-competitive seasons. That’s particularly true with the team rostering a couple of aging veterans who are playing out the final few months of one-year contracts.

Second baseman César Hernández and third baseman Maikel Franco have each played the majority of games this season, but neither has performed well. Hernández owns a .241/.305/.306 line through 476 plate appearances. The switch-hitting infielder has incredibly not connected on a single home run all season after popping a career-high 21 longballs last year. Franco has only a .228/.255/.337 showing in 373 trips to the plate. Among players with 300+ plate appearances, only Tigers second baseman Jonathan Schoop has a lower on-base percentage (.240) than Franco’s .255.

Clearly, neither player is going to be a key piece of the rebuild. The club’s hope of cashing either in for future value at the trade deadline has come and gone, with both struggling so badly there was no real interest from contenders. With that in mind, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com wonders whether Hernández and Franco will even hold their roster spots for the rest of the 2022 season. Zuckerman notes that Franco may be in better position to remain in the lineup. While Abrams’ arrival should push Hernández out of the starting lineup, journeyman Ildemaro Vargas stands as Franco’s biggest competitor for reps at the hot corner with Carter Kieboom out for the season.

Hernández and Franco aren’t the only struggling veterans on a club that’s 39 games under .500. Southpaw Patrick Corbin has been one of the sport’s least effective starters. After allowing six runs and failing to make it out of the first inning in a start against the Phillies on Saturday, Corbin carries a 7.02 ERA through 110 1/3 innings. That’s easily a personal worst, but Corbin has been well below-average for three straight years after an excellent first season in Washington. Since the beginning of 2020, he owns a 5.98 ERA through 65 starts.

Manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Andrew Golden of the Washington Post) that the club will take advantage of a team off-day on Thursday to skip Corbin’s next turn through the rotation. That’s a temporary measure designed to afford the left-hander more time to work with pitching coach Jim Hickey, and the club is apparently not considering permanently removing Corbin from the starting five. “I want to leave this year with a positive moving forward to next year because, regardless of what anyone thinks, he’s going to be one of our starters next year and the year after that,” Martinez said of Corbin.

The 33-year-old is under contract for two seasons beyond this one. He’s due around $24MM next season and will make a bit more than $35MM come 2024. Given Corbin’s struggles, it’s hard to envision the Nationals getting out from under any of that money. With Washington likely to be rebuilding over the next two seasons anyhow, the club can live with some struggles from Corbin as he picks up innings as part of an uncertain rotation.

Latest On Cardinals’ Pursuit Of Juan Soto

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Juan Soto has been the talk of deadline season since reports emerged that the Nationals were entertaining dealing him in the wake of a rejected extension offer. The young superstar will continue to dominate headlines up until he’s either traded or next Tuesday’s deadline passes, with plenty of teams relishing the chance to acquire a 23-year-old who is already perhaps the game’s best hitter.

There’s been plenty of speculation about which teams could be involved, and Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote yesterday that some rival executives believe the Cardinals and Padres are the clubs with the best chance of prying Soto out of Washington. That’s more informed speculation than an indication anything is close between the Nats and either club. Both the Padres and Cardinals have win-now mentalities and a group of high-upside controllable players both at and below the major league level. That’s also true of clubs like the Dodgers, Yankees and Mariners, among others, and Soto’s two and a half years of remaining arbitration eligibility means the Nats don’t have to take the best offer on the table over the next few days.

Both Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat write that the Cardinals have considered making a push for Soto. Jones reports that talks between the St. Louis and Washington front offices have already been underway, with rookie second baseman Nolan Gorman on the table.

According to Jones, the St. Louis front office has proposed building a return package around Gorman in hopes of keeping at least one of minor league infielders Jordan Walker or Masyn Winn. Walker is perhaps the organization’s top young player, checking in 7th overall on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospects update. Winn, meanwhile, places 65th on that list. They’re two of the top three St. Louis prospects, with left-hander Matthew Liberatore — who has made his first seven MLB appearances this year — checking in 35th. (Triple-A outfielder Alec Burleson and Double-A pitcher Gordon Graceffo also placed towards the back of the top 100).

Gorman, of course, would still be a top prospect himself if he hadn’t exhausted his eligibility this season. The 22-year-old entered the year as a consensus top minor league talent in his own right. Keith Law of the Athletic placed him slightly ahead of Walker as St. Louis’ top prospect entering the season. Baseball America and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN each gave the edge to Walker but slotted Gorman second in the system and among the sport’s top 50 farmhands. Gorman proceeded to tear the cover off the ball with Triple-A Memphis, blasting 15 home runs in 34 games before getting his first big league call in May.

Through 54 major league games entering play Wednesday, the left-handed hitting Gorman has a .223/.299/.411 showing. The high-power, low-OBP combination is about what was anticipated. Gorman’s huge power numbers in Memphis came with a lofty 34% strikeout rate, and he’s gone down on strikes 32.5% of the time thus far as a big leaguer.

One shouldn’t expect Gorman to be a finished product at this point. He just turned 22 years old a few months ago. “Merely” hitting at a slightly above-average level in the majors at that age is quite promising. Gorman has predictably not rated highly as a defender at second base, but the 6’1″ infielder was forced to the keystone by the presence of Nolan Arenado. Gorman could probably fare better with an opportunity at his natural position at the hot corner, although his power upside at the dish will always be his calling card.

Promising as Gorman has been, it’s also understandable if the Cardinals would prefer to center a possible Soto return around him rather than Walker. The latter, a first-round pick in 2020, has played his way to Double-A Springfield despite having just turned 20 years old. Walker is excelling at that advanced level, hitting .304/.393/.486 with eight home runs, a quality 11.5% walk rate and a manageable 22.3% strikeout percentage. Those excellent numbers only reinforce scouting evaluations that suggest Walker could be a middle-of-the-order bat in the not too distant future. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs credited Walker with possible top-of-the-scale power (an 80 on the 20-80 scale) this month, writing that he’s posted eye-popping exit velocities in the minors despite his youth. Like Gorman, Walker has come up as a third baseman.

Winn, also 20, went in the second round of that 2020 draft. A two-way player in high school, he’s converted to shortstop as a professional. He retains the elite arm strength he showed on the mound, and Longenhagen praised his combination of bat speed, athleticism and contact skills. He’s split the season between High-A Peoria and Springfield, hitting .298/.363/.484 across 357 plate appearances.

Whether a Gorman-centered return could get the ball rolling in talks for the Nationals isn’t clear. Washington holds plenty of leverage in Soto talks, and the early reported asking price has been for a return of five or more controllable big leaguers and/or prospects. Even if the Nationals had interest in Gorman as a headliner, St. Louis would surely have to additionally include multiple young players (one or more likely from the aforementioned group of top 100 talents in the system) to convince Washington general manager Mike Rizzo to pull the trigger.

Jones writes that, at some point in negotiations with the Cardinals, the Nats sought to include left-hander Patrick Corbin in talks as a means of offsetting salary. Corbin is under contract for roughly $60MM over the 2023-24 seasons, an unappealing sum for a pitcher with a 6.02 ERA through 20 starts on the year. Rizzo flatly rejected the idea the Nationals have sought or would seek to include Corbin’s contract in a Soto deal during a chat on 106.7 FM radio in Washington this morning.

“We’ve never contacted teams and talked about Juan Soto and attaching any contract to any player,” Rizzo told “The Sports Junkies.” “We’re not going to dilute a return for any player by adding a bad contract. That’s not where we’re at in our organization at this time. We want to get the most for each and every trade that we do, so we certainly are not going to tack on anybody’s contract to anybody’s deal, including Juan Soto’s or Josh Bell’s or anybody.“

Rizzo: Nationals Won’t “Dilute” Trade Returns By Attaching Bad Contracts

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As soon as it reported that the Nationals were willing to listen to offers on star outfielder Juan Soto, there was speculation about the possibility of utilizing Soto’s unprecedented trade value to dump some or all of the $59MM owed to Patrick Corbin in 2023-24. (Stephen Strasburg’s name was also a popular source of speculation, but he has full no-trade protection, making that scenario even less likely.) In his weekly radio appearance on 106.7 FM’s “The Sports Junkies,” Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo plainly stated that he will not water down his return for any player, Soto or otherwise, by insisting that a trade partner take on an undesirable contract (link to full audio of the 21-minute interview).

“We’ve never contacted teams and talked about Juan Soto and attaching any contract to any player,” said Rizzo. “We’re not going to dilute a return for any player by adding a bad contract. That’s not where we’re at in our organization at this time. We want to get the most for each and every trade that we do, so we certainly are not going to tack on anybody’s contract to anybody’s deal, including Juan Soto’s or Josh Bell’s or anybody.”

Fans hoping to see their favorite team absorb the Corbin contract in order to reduce the prospect cost of acquiring Soto can’t be thrilled by that declaration, but it’s the sensible course of action for Rizzo and his staff to take if they indeed follow through on a Soto trade — be it this summer or in the offseason. Rizzo did candidly acknowledge that the Nationals are discussing trades involving Soto and appear to have legitimate interest from several other clubs. Whether a team will meet a historic asking price (reportedly as many as six prospects and/or young big leaguers), of course, remains to be seen. Unsurprisingly, Rizzo did not offer any specifics pertaining to ongoing Soto discussions.

“When we offered Juan this contract, with his agent’s knowledge, we told him when the deal was turned down, ’We’re going to have to explore all our options,'” Rizzo continued. “That’s all we’ve ever said. I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t explore all the options now presented to us. We’ve got pretty good options. We’ve got a talented Juan Soto for two and a half more seasons. That’s Option A — it’s a good one. But we also have to think about options B and C. My job is to make this organization a consummate winner again, like we did from 2012 to 2019. I have to figure out ways, as the caretaker of this franchise, to make us a championship organization for a long time to come.”

Taking a step further back, Rizzo lamented that his team’s reported 15-year, $440MM extension offer to Soto became public. The GM stated that it “unequivocally” was not leaked by him or other members of the Nationals front office.

“[The leak] didn’t help us in anything we were trying to do,” said Rizzo. “It didn’t help us keep a good relationship with Juan, and it didn’t help us with any kind of leverage at the trade deadline. So it really hurt us that the information got out.”

Speaking further on the matter, Rizzo acknowledged that while reports of prior extension offers to Soto had contained inaccurate terms, the reported 15-year, $440MM terms of his team’s latest proposal were indeed accurate. He added that he doesn’t harbor any ill feelings toward Soto for the choice to turn down what would’ve been the largest contract in MLB history, but also pushed back on suggestions that Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM annual value should have any bearing on the AAV in a potential Soto deal. As Rizzo points out, a short-term deal for a 37-year-old pitcher is an entirely different beast than a 15-year offer to a 23-year-old who still has a pair of trips through the arbitration process remaining.

There was, of course, no firm declaration that Soto would be traded. Rizzo emphasized that the Nats are “going to have to get the deal that we want … that gets us the opportunity to become a championship organization faster than not trading him.” On the Lerner family’s looming sale of the Nationals franchise, Rizzo stated that the potential ownership change “has not factored one bit into the decision-making process.”

Fans of the Nats and virtually any other team will want to check out the whole interview, as Rizzo’s candor is both fascinating and uncommon among current baseball operations leaders throughout the league. Beyond the Soto drama, Rizzo also discusses the team’s recent draft, his respect for and relationship with the Boras Corporation, the broader state of the team’s ongoing “reboot,” and the confidence he has in his plan to engineer a swift turnaround for the organization.

Pitching Notes: Corbin, Odorizzi, Tepera, Ohtani

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Patrick Corbin was the subject of some trade discussions this winter, as ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) reports that the Nationals had talks with other teams about the veteran left-hander.  It isn’t clear whether the Nats initiated these talks or if other teams were exploring Corbin’s availability, or if any of these discussions were anything beyond standard offseason “checking-in” types of conversations.  It could be that teams were trying to buy low on Corbin in the wake of a down year that saw him post a 4.66 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate, and a career-low 90.2 mph average fastball velocity over 65 2/3 innings.  Between 2020’s shortened season and Corbin’s stint on the COVID-related injury list this April, it makes it hard to gauge whether or not Corbin’s struggles last year and in the early days of the 2021 season are truly due to a decline.

Trading Corbin would have been quite the pivot for a Washington team that planned on contending in 2021.  It’s possible the Nats could have looked to add Major League-ready pieces rather than prospects in any Corbin deal, or perhaps moved the southpaw for a comparably high-priced proven veteran.  Corbin is owed $106MM from 2021-24 in the four remaining seasons of his original six-year, $140MM free agent deal from the 2018-19 offseason.  The topic of a Corbin trade could be worth revisiting of the Nationals don’t get into the playoff race and become sellers at the trade deadline, though Corbin’s contract would seemingly make him one of the less-likely Nats players to be dealt, considering how D.C. has so many rental players available.

More pitching-related items…

  • Jake Odorizzi is being examined today after having to leave yesterday’s game after just five pitches.  More will be known when tests are complete, but Astros GM James Click gave an optimistic view on the injury during an interview on the team’s pregame radio show today (hat tip to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).  “The initial read yesterday was more of a muscle cramp in the pronator muscle, which is not the flexor mass,” Click said.
  • The Cubs announced that Ryan Tepera’s three-game suspension was reduced to two games on appeal, and the right-hander will begin serving his suspension today.  Tepera’s suspension was issued earlier this month after an incident that saw Tepera throw behind the Brewers’ Brandon Woodruff.
  • We’ll conclude this edition of Pitching Notes with an item on…an outfielder, sort of.  Shohei Ohtani played an inning of left field, moving from DH to the grass at the end of the Angels’ 16-2 loss to the Astros yesterday.  As Angels manager Joe Maddon told MLB.com’s Daniel Guerrero and other reporters, the move was made “out of necessity” due to a short-handed bench and outfielder Anthony Bemboom getting called to the mound for an inning of mop-up duty.  There has often been speculation that Ohtani could be deployed in the outfield as a way of keeping him in the lineup and opening up Anaheim’s DH spot, but Maddon stressed that using Ohtani as a position player is “not part of the plans” going forward.  Maddon did note, however, that Ohtani “is such a great athlete…I’m telling you he could do it.”

Nationals Reinstate Patrick Corbin, Option Kyle McGowin

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The Washington Nationals have reinstated Patrick Corbin from the COVID injured list, the team announced. He will make his debut start tonight against the Dodgers.

Kyle McGowin has been optioned and placed on Washington’s taxi squad, per Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Adrian Sanchez has been returned to the team’s alternate site. Sanchez did not see any game action. McGowin, 29, had a pair of productive outings for the Nats. As one of their primary multi-inning arms with options remaining, McGowin is sure to find his way back to Nats Park at some point during the 2021 season.

Corbin, meanwhile, ends up not really missing any time. Since tonight’s game will be the Nats’ fifth of the season, they are technically still in the first time through the rotation. That could be huge for Nats, who rely heavily on their three-headed monster in the rotation: Corbin, Stephen Strasburg, and Max Scherzer. The Nats turn to Corbin tonight looking for their first victory since Juan Soto walked them off with an RBI single in their first game of the season.

Nationals Reinstate Four Players From Injured List

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1:13 pm: Corbin has also cleared COVID-19 protocols, manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post). The left-hander met the team in Los Angeles but it isn’t known if he’ll make a start this weekend.

12:29 pm: The Nationals have reinstated Alex Avila, Yan Gomes, Brad Hand and Jordy Mercer from the COVID-19 injured list, per a team announcement. Carter Kieboom, Tres Barrera and Ryne Harper were optioned, while Cody Wilson was reassigned to the alternate training site. Washington was without nine players for their season-opening series against the Braves due to coronavirus spread among the team. Jon Lester, Patrick Corbin, Josh Harrison, Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber remain on the COVID IL.

The return of Avila and Gomes gives the Nats’ their expected catching tandem back in time for this afternoon’s contest against the Dodgers. While Barrera was optioned out, Washington elected to keep Jonathan Lucroy on the active roster, so they’ll go with three backstops for the time being.

Wilson, meanwhile, was designated as a “replacement player” under the 2021 COVID-19 protocols. He was called up temporarily as part of the initial wave of reinforcements, but he has now been removed from the 40-man roster without having been designated for assignment or exposed to waivers.

Nationals Set Opening Day Roster

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After having their first four games postponed due to positive Covid-19 tests within the organization, the Nationals have announced their roster for today’s season opener. Four Nationals players are said to have tested positive, with several more in the organization being deemed close contacts who are also going through protocol. Tuesday’s announcement was accompanied by a dizzying series of roster moves, which included placing catchers Yan Gomes and Alex Avila; left-handers Patrick Corbin, Brad Hand and Jon Lester; infielders Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer; first baseman Josh Bell; and outfielder Kyle Schwarber on the Covid-19 related injured list. Right-hander Will Harris was also placed on the 10-day injured list after his recent procedure to address a blood clot.

In a sequence of corresponding roster moves, the Nats recalled catcher Tres Barrera; right-handers Ryne Harper and Kyle McGowin; infielders Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia; lefty Sam Clay; and outfielder Yadiel Hernandez from their alternate training site. Washington also selected the contracts of veteran catcher Jonathan Lucroy and outfielder Cody Wilson. Wilson was specifically designated as a “replacement player,” indicating that he can be removed from the 40-man roster and sent back to the minors without clearing waivers as the affected Nationals players are cleared to return to the roster.

Notably, the Nationals’ Opening Day roster includes shortstop Trea Turner — a welcome development after Turner was absent from yesterday’s workout with the team. Manager Dave Martinez tells reporters that Turner was not cleared to be on the field yesterday (Twitter link via the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty), so it seems he cleared protocols this morning. Turner will be joined in the Opening Day infield by Ryan Zimmerman, Hernan Perez (at second) and Starlin Castro (at third). The Nats will give Andrew Stevenson the nod in left field alongside Victor Robles and Juan Soto, while Lucroy draws the start behind the plate, catching Max Scherzer.

The Nationals will make up yesterday’s postponed contest against the Braves in a doubleheader tomorrow. It’s not yet clear when they’ll make up their three postponed games against the Mets, although given that they’re division rivals, the remainder of this season’s schedule will provide ample opportunity for those games to be played.

Diamondbacks Notes: Ex-Dbacks, Rizzo, Offense, Marte

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The Diamondbacks surprisingly hung around the Wild Card race until mid-September this season, despite shedding the faces of their franchise over the course of the six months previous. The postseason has been a who’s who of important Dbacks of the last half decade, as Patrick Corbin has taken out the rest of the Dbacks former talent core, starting with A.J. Pollock and the Dodgers and Paul Goldschmidt and the Cardinals. He’ll take his best shot at Zack Greinke and the Astros in game 3 of the World Series, aka the former Dbacks ace bowl. Of course, Mike Rizzo, the Nationals GM, is also an ex-Diamondback. He served as Arizona’s Scouting Director from 2000 to 2006. Let’s take a look at some Diamondbacks news from Rizzo’s era up to the present day…

  • It’s unsurprising to realize Rizzo repurposed the team-building blueprint from the 2001 Diamondbacks champs in putting together his team in Washington, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Mainly, that means two aces up front and a host of veteran hitters capable of putting together veteran at-bats. All in all, it’s a pretty uncannily accurate casting job on the part of Rizzo. Max Scherzer is Randy Johnson, Stephen Strasburg is Curt Schilling, Patrick Corbin is an evolved Brian Anderson, Anibal Sanchez is Miguel Batista. Many of the vets also fit the mold: Howie Kendrick can play Mark Grace, Gerardo Parra as David Dellucci or Danny Bautista, Ryan Zimmerman as Matt Williams, Asdrubal Cabrera as Jay Bell, Adam Eaton as Reggie Sanders, Matt Adams as Greg Colbrunn and Kurt Suzuki is Damian Miller. In the bullpen, Fernando Rodney is definitely Mike Morgan, Sean Doolittle is Matt Mantei (I guess?), Daniel Hudson is (gulp) Byung-Hyun Kim. Okay, perhaps it’s not 1-1 all the way through, but those Diamondbacks did win the World Series after a 92-win season – after a 93-win season in Washington, Rizzo hopes to replicate his old team one last time.
  • Despite two recent aces facing off for different teams in the World Series, the Diamondbacks offseason focus is the offense, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The Dbacks put together a middle-of-the-pack offense in 2019, but the bats went away in an 11-game stretch in mid-September. They went 3-8 and pretty much fell out of race while scoring less than 2 1/2 runs per game. Those are the games that stick out for GM Mike Hazen, who will be on the lookout for ways to diversify their offense. Parsing the profile of the type of hitter Hazen may target is more difficult, as Arizona’s offense didn’t really stand out in any which way. They finished below-average in home runs, but not by a lot, above-average in men left on base and GIDP, but again, not by much. They were exactly league-average in batting average and on-base percentage, while their team slugging (.434 SLG) was below average by .001 SLG – as close to average as any team in the MLB.
  • As far as Ketel Marte is concerned, the Dbacks aren’t making a decision about his 2020 defensive home until they build out the rest of the roster. Second base could be where they look to improve offensively, in which case Marte will head back out to center. Essentially, the plan remains the same, with Hazen and the Dbacks set to take full advantage of the versatility Marte affords.

World Series Notes: Altuve, Astros, Nationals, Pressly

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Somewhere in the concourse beyond Minute Maid Park, there lies a stretch of concrete that will one day be the site of a statue in honor of Astros infielder Jose Altuve. Saturday night’s 9th inning saw the diminutive second baseman launch a towering shot into the night air of a tied elimination game in the American League Championship Series, sealing with one swing his place in postseason lore.

But Altuve’s ascension to Game 6 October glory is an unlikely development. While this seems like a pat statement at first glance–perhaps referring, as observers often do, to Altuve’s small, 5’6 frame–the truly unlikely thing about Altuve’s story concerns a nascent failure in his native Venezuela. As Alex Putterman’s 2017 story for The Atlantic explained, Altuve was cut by the Astros after appearing as a teenager in a club tryout camp because the organization considered him too short. At the behest of his father, Altuve returned to tryout for the club again, where he ultimately showed enough to earn a $15,000 signing bonus from Houston officials–hardly a considerable sum in an international signing landscape where seven-figure deals often grab headlines stateside. While a recap of Altuve’s many career exploits following that signing would be redundant at this point, tonight seems a fitting occasion to remember that tonight’s hero achieved his place in history due, in part, to familial encouragement and a little bit of old-fashioned determination. Apparently, even the tiniest of prospects can develop into statues, given the right conditions.

Looking onward to the 115th World Series, beginning play on Tuesday evening…

  • With champagne still raining in the Houston locker room, it’s obviously a bit early to talk pitching matchups–but that didn’t stop Nationals beat writer Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post from giving it a shot (link). As Dougherty sees it, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole should square off in Game 1, Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander could conceivably follow in the second game, and Patrick Corbin and Zack Greinke project as the matchup for Game 3. For their careers, those six pitchers have combined for 269.3 bWAR. Cole, as has been stated ad nauseam this postseason, is slated for free agency this winter, and Strasburg could follow should he decline the remaining four years and $100MM sitting on the other side of his contractual opt-out.
  • Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle shares that reliever Ryan Pressly had some “scar tissue in his knee [break] off” during his third-inning appearance of Game 6 of the ALCS (link). Said scar tissue is, presumably, the result of surgery Pressly underwent in August to address soreness in his right knee joint. Pressly intimated to Rome that he will be “ready to go” for the World Series. If the pitching lineup Astros manager AJ Hinch used in the ALCS is any indication, then Pressly’s services would be especially vital in Game 4, which could be a bullpen game for the ’Stros. Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington shares that Hinch said in his postgame presser that he is “expecting” Pressly to be ready for World Series action (link).

Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin

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Dec. 11: Corbin’s deal includes a $2.5MM signing bonus, per Heyman, and the following yearly salaries: $12.5MM in 2019, $19MM in 2020, $24MM in 2021, $23MM in 2022, $24MM in 2023 and $35MM in 2024.

Dec. 7: The Nationals have formally announced the signing of Corbin to a six-year contract.

“As the top free agent pitcher on the market this offseason, we targeted Patrick from the onset,” said general manager Mike Rizzo in a statement within the press release. “He was one of the top pitchers in the National League in 2018 and at 29 years old, we believe the best is yet to come. We are thrilled to bring him into our organization.”

Dec. 6: Just $10MM of salary is deferred, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’ll be due in a period from November of 2024 through January of 2026, so ultimately it’s only a small portion of the contract that won’t be kicked very far down the road.

Dec. 4: The Nationals have agreed to a deal with veteran lefty Patrick Corbin, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Corbin, a client of ISE Baseball, has landed a $140MM guarantee over a six-year term, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.

"<strongDeferrals will reduce the true, present-day value of the deal, but it’s still a huge sum. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the deferrals will be relatively minor, though details aren’t yet known. There will not be an opt-out opportunity in the deal, Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com tweets. That’s one area in which the Nats will avoid giving further value. (As MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has explained, those increasingly common clauses convey sometimes-significant value to players.) There’s no word yet as to whether Corbin will obtain any no-trade protection.

It turns out that Corbin will not only top the $126MM guarantee achieved last winter by Yu Darvish,but will do so handily. Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Corbin would beat Darvish slightly, grading him as the top arm on the market. That seemed an aggressive prediction at the time, with many other outlets suggesting Corbin would earn less, but his market took off from the outset with several large-market clubs driving the bidding.

The Nats ultimately topped the Yankees (who entered as the perceived favorite) and division-rival Phillies to get a deal done. It long seemed a match with the New York club made the most sense, due not only to need and spending power but also to Corbin’s well-known roots in New York. It turns out the Yanks were unwilling to move past a $100MM offer on a five-year term, per Billy Witz of the New York Times (via Twitter). The Phillies also were stuck on five years, per Heyman (Twitter link).

Corbin’s decision to head to D.C. represents the first major move of this winter’s free agent market. He’ll join Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg to make up an imposing trio atop the Nats’ rotation — a unit that still could be supplemented with another addition. All three will be playing on nine-figure deals, representing a remarkable overall commitment to maintaining a top-level pitching staff.

This is the most significant acquisition yet for the Nats, but hardly the first. Previously, the Nationals lined up a new catching duo (Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki) and added a pair of relievers (Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough). Clearly, the organization is fully committed to a run at a return to glory in 2019 and beyond. The same can be said of much of the rest of the division, setting the stage for a fascinating remaining winter of dealmaking (to say nothing of the season to come).

Because he declined a qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks, Corbin’s signing will trigger some draft pick implications. The Nats will cough up a second-round pick and a fifth-rounder as well, as they were one of two teams that paid the competitive balance tax in 2018. The D-Backs will add a sandwich round pick (after the conclusion of the first round).

It’s a big price for the Nats to pay, but they obviously felt it was worth it to add a 29-year-old pitcher who took major new strides in 2018. Corbin threw exactly 200 frames for the Snakes, working to a 3.15 ERA and — more importantly — looking every bit an ace in doing so. He ended the season with 11.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and a 48.5% ground-ball rate, leaving ERA estimators gawking (2.47 FIP, 2.61 xFIP, 2.91 SIERA). Notably, Corbin’s eye-popping 15.6% swinging-strike rate was orders of magnitude superior to his prior personal-best (11.0% in the season prior) and ranked as the second-highest of any qualified starting pitcher in the Majors. That occurred even as his average fastball dipped below 92 mph for the first time since he established himself as a full-time MLB starter.

Beyond questions of the sustainability of Corbin’s performance, many will wonder whether this contract brings too much health risk. The southpaw missed all of the 2014 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery, after all. Of course, the Nats have not shied away from TJ patients in the past, and Corbin has otherwise mostly been a rather durable hurler by today’s standards. He topped two hundred frames in 2013 and slung 189 2/3 in the 2017 campaign. Plus, the still-youthful hurler has a deeper potential advantage for longevity: he did not push his arm on the youth baseball circuit and did not even join the baseball team in high school until he was a junior.

The addition of Corbin at such a lofty rate will leave many to wonder whether the Nationals have moved on from Bryce Harper. The addition of Corbin’s $23.33MM annual salary will bring the Nationals’ luxury tax ledger to a bit more than $188MM for the 2019 season — about $17.9MM south of the luxury tax line. Obviously, adding Harper to the fold would tax the Nationals well north of the $206MM luxury line, but the Nationals demonstrated last year that they were comfortable crossing that threshold.

Beyond that, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has suggested that the Nats payroll could support both an extension for Anthony Rendon and a new contract for Harper. While it’s possible that the addition of Corbin could make it difficult to ultimately sign both Rendon and Harper long-term, Rizzo’s prior comments at the very least lend credence to the notion that both Corbin and Harper could coexist on an increasingly large payroll. Furthermore, as Janes tweets, the Nats’ front office knows that in order to retain Harper, ownership will need to make an “unprecedented commitment” and looks to be building up the roster while leaving a decision on Harper in the hands of the Lerner family.

Now that the dust has cleared, Corbin has ended up topping some notable recent price points. In addition to beating the Darvish deal, he’ll receive more total money than Johnny Cueto ($130MM), though that contract included an early opt-out chance, as well as Jordan Zimmermann ($110MM). The contract will still fall comfortably shy of Jon Lester’s somewhat front-loaded, $155MM pact with the Cubs in December of 2014.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Spots Images.

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