The Nationals’ trade of right-hander Tanner Roark again puts Joe Ross and Erick Fedde atop the team’s list of options in the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation, meaning they’ll once again be on the hunt for starters. To that end, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports that the Nats have interest in top lefty Dallas Keuchel but are “leery of giving him the five- or six-year deal he seeks.”
That’s the first word on the asking price for Keuchel, and it’s a fairly steep one, as most would expect. Of course, early asking prices are always going to be high — typically higher than the eventual landing point. If agent Scott Boras and Keuchel are ultimately seeking four to five years, for instance, it’s only natural to see them set out asking for five to six years. MLBTR estimated a four-year, $82MM deal for Keuchel at the outset of free agency, and a recent reader poll saw only about 15 percent of respondents believe a five-year pact was within reach.
Keuchel, 31 on New Year’s Day, is the top remaining starter in free agency but is one of several available pitchers to whom the Nationals have been linked since trading Roark. In the 48 hours since that swap, Washington has been tied to Yusei Kikuchi, Anibal Sanchez and Wade Miley. Keuchel would give the Nationals a virtually unparalleled top four alongside Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin but would also quite likely give the Nats an unheard of four starting pitchers with annual salaries in excess of $20MM. Like Corbin before him, Keuchel would cost the Nationals a pick in next year’s draft by virtue of the fact that he rejected a $17.9MM qualifying offer.
As for those wondering about the wisdom behind trading Roark only to immediately search for a replacement, it’s possible that the organization simply felt Roark’s rising arbitration price — MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegged him at $9.8MM — outpaced reasonable expectations for his performance in 2019. Roark’s strikeout, swinging-strike, home-run and ground-ball rates all went in the wrong direction in 2018, as did his velocity.
In the meantime, the Nats added a 100-mph arm, Tanner Rainey, in exchange for Roark’s final season of team control. While Rainey’s MLB cameo in 2018 was unequivocally brutal (19 runs on 13 hits and 12 walks with seven strikeouts in just seven innings), he also notched a 2.95 ERA with 13.5 K/9 across the past two minor league seasons. Walks were still an issue in the minors, though, as he averaged 5.4 free passes per nine innings pitched.
The deferred payments club. . . Boras knows where to fish !!!
Leery of asking price?! They just gave Corbin the United States Treasury.
They did what they had to in Corbin’s case. This is different. DK will get about 20MM/yr the only question is for how long.
I’d bet on Keuchel to age better than Corbin though, and he definitely won’t cost $140 million
I have mixed feelings on that. On the one hand his soft pitching style should go easier on his body but on the other, though he lead the league in IP, he lead all of baseball in hits allowed.
So he is incredibly dependant on good defense. But something else that makes him risky is that since he already deals from a position of low velo, he can’t afford to lose ANY velocity.
A lot of innings logged in that arm… I’d be leery too.
Luhnow isn’t talking to his agents, and he knows Keuchel best.
The contracts for both Corbin and Keuchel will handcuff their teams in the future.
Corbin’s can only be justified if Strasburg opts out. And by the way, Strasburg missed a few months last year. He’s had to have missed at least 25% of the games since Boras pulled that one over on Ted.
Over his 7 MLB seasons Kechuel has only thrown just over 1,200 innings (playoffs included)
Stop looking at innings and look at # of pitches thrown.
Too many variables come into play; wish more looked at # pitches thrown, this data was available, or calculable.
Not just the total number of pitches that wear one down, it’s also the number of pitches in high stress situations.
Dallas would be a boost but 5 years is too long. At Four Years I would start thinking it was worth the risk.
If Corbin got 6/120, Keuchel is gonna get $100mil when certain teams get desperate.
Corbin got 6/140.
Go get yourself a Zach Greinke.
Philly will give him 5/110.
Let them
Last year Scott Boras told the Phillies Jake Arrieta wanted 6 years. They told Boras to call him back when Arrieta was ready to sign for 3 years. They waited and they signed Arrieta. The Phillies wouldn’t go 6 years on Corbin or 3 on Happ. They won’t go more than 3 years on Keuchel. It sounds like he’ll get 4-6 somewhere else.
Last year is last year. This year free agency has been very different
In the last three years, Roark has had a combined WAR of 7.7 (Fangraphs). Keuchel has an 8.6 WAR. Both have a relatively similar age (Roark 15 months older). Is Keuchel really worth 10+MM more in AAV, and a five-year deal??
You snipped off the Cy Young year four years ago. Granted that was four years ago, but your sample is convenient.
Also, DK was really good last year. TR, not so much.
I know rumors were the Braves were sniffing around DK
For that price I would rather them pass
Sorry not so much the price but more so the years he is seekin
Although he is not a fireballer & may be productive as he ages
Velocity is diminishing. Great getting out of jams. I just have a hard time with a guy that historically gives up a hit an inning. He’s a ground ball pitcher. And how many infields are as good as Alutve, Correa and Bregman? Not many for sure. (I do like Arenado, Story and Lemahieu!)
Lemahieu is a free agent and probably won’t be back in Colorado, but Story and Arenado are still an unbelievable left side defensively.
Boring
We can all see that Keuchel has already peaked and he’s only “pretty good” at this point. I wouldn’t want to give him more than 3 years, that is for sure.
I really don’t think 5/100 is that unreasonable. I do think he’ll age well.
Someone will cave.
All you need to do is look at the Astros. They need a starter and are not really attempting to resign him. They know his best years are done.
Astros don’t need a starter. They have two All-Stars on the front end and a pool to pull from. They don’t need another 20 million per year salary.
If your number 4 starter is getting in excess of 20 million per year, you have either spent frivolously or you have a really good staff, or both.
This was the most pointless comment
People either loved it, hated it; or thought it was okay.
I see nothing wrong with your comment, I did have problems with the response to you
Heard a lot of Pettitte comps for Keuchel and, if that’s the case, I can see 5yrs no problem. Doesn’t rely on power so velo isn’t a likely factor. Generates tons of weak contact and GBs which shouldn’t diminish with age. Not sure of his injury history but I dont recall anything significant. For the right team I think hes a major get and the Angels actually make sense if the price is right. Having Fletcher/Simba/Cozart around the INF to eat up those grounders, the spacious outfield at the Big A (plus Trout and Calhoun on patrol), Cali weather. Come on Dally whats not to like?
I really like Kuechel, but no way I’d give him more than 4 years. When he’s hitting his spots he creates soft contact and ground balls, but when he isn’t, it’s not good. He sits around 87-88 and when the ball isn’t moving like it needs to, it moves quickly over fences.
I think I’d be ok in the 5yr/$80m or 4yr/$75m ballpark. That’s much less than Jon Lester got a few years ago and they are similar arms IMO. Not necessarily profile wise but abilities wise. Both former number 1 starters who are more like 3s for their next contract.
I am not sure Arte is willing to deal with Boras.
Who would want to? I’d love for him to negotiate my annual review at work though!
AA we need a better pitching staff
YANKEES!!!!!
Alternative: Zack Greinke 3 years. $88M with $25M of that deferred
Can you imagine a rotation like that with Greinke? Corbin would have to be the #4. $140m backend pitcher!! I agree with you on them getting Greinke. It seems like the Nats are trying to buy a championship and if they are going to hand out $100m to another pitcher they should just bring in Greinke. He won’t cost much as far as prospects and will only be around for 3 years. Look how far DK has fallen in 3 years. If he keeps trending down he will be a $20m long man the last couple of years of his 5 year deal. Just get Greinke, one more solid reliever and a solid backup OF and call it an offseason.
That would be an expensive rotation for the Nats
Angels need to make this move for a pitcher, they need pitching and more pitching.
Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Keuchel… not a bad starting 4 at all. Could be very dangerous. Kind of reminds me of a cheaper/not as good version of the Phillies staff (Halladay, Lee, Hammels, Oswalt)