The starting pitching market is off to a rather solid start, even if the movement hasn’t exactly been fast and furious. Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi topped MLBTR’s predicted contract values, J.A. Happ and Charlie Morton appear to be landing in range of their own anticipated prices, and Lance Lynn scored a surprising three-year pact.
We’ve seen former Astros lefty linked to a variety of teams, but his market has not been as hot as those of some other hurlers. Multiple reports have the Reds and Phillies in the mix. The Blue Jays are involved, though it’s fair to wonder to what extent. The Braves have been connected, and disconnected. It’s certainly not hard to imagine some other clubs with interest, though we clearly haven’t seen a bidding war develop to this point.
Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Keuchel would secure a four-year, $82MM deal, with the bet being that teams would be willing to promise him a significant AAV but not a terribly long term entering his age-31 campaign. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs pegged the value just a shade higher than we did, at 4/$84MM .Others were somewhat more bullish, with Fancred’s Jon Heyman and his anonymous expert predicting a five-year pact in the $95MM to $105MM range.
Given how the market has developed to this point, what do you expect? Will Keuchel find himself frozen out of the biggest contracts? Do the early signings set the stage for a big payday? Or, perhaps, is he still on track to land where MLBTR guessed at the start of the offseason? (Response order randomized. Link for app users.)
He is going to get paid big time.
As much as your hubby?
Not if you count his marriage
Ten bucks.
If Corbin got 140, he will easily make 100. Corbin was a huge overpay
Exactly
Come on Yankees
too young for the yankees. they like them one year away from a scooter, then they give them 3 years
Lol
More like, too groundball for the Yankees. Check out their INF defense. Happ career-high K % despite age!!
Thanks NYY have a strict no bear policy. I don’t see him going to the Yanks.
Beard*
5/100
I say five years 110 million.
It just depends what kind of demand he has.
Exactly!!! The demands a player wants sometimes curbs the contract. Keuchel would be a permit fit in the Cardinal rotation. They need a lefthanded starter!! You never hear them say that, but they don’t have any left handed starters. Keuchel, or Bumgarner would fill the bill.
I think Keuchel would be a nice fit in ATL as long as he doesn’t try to get paid like an Ace. A soft tosser lefty, who keeps the ball down and relies on his defense while also providing stability and veteran leadership from a guy who comes from a small town in the south? Sounds like a nice Braves fit.
However his peripherals are showing decline and who knows how much decline his stuff can survive before he starts falling off a cliff. I mean getting 6 k’s per 9 while walking almost 3 and giving up almost 10 hits per 9 with a good defense behind you is a concern for a guy hitting his 30’s. But I would love him to the Braves for 3-4 years at around 16-20 yearly.
I can’t imagine him being worth much more than that to anyone tbh. But If a big market team decides they want him they might pay him 5 yrs just because they can and plan on the end of the deal being a loss while relying on getting 2-3 good years out of him.
$100M+ This guy is the epitome of a finesse pitcher, but Starting pitchers getting paid this off-season.
Lance Lynn got 3 years (!!!)
No
I think the man is going to get paid a lot of money. Two of the last three seasons have been uninspiring, but given the money already handed out, I don’t see why Heyman’s “anonymous expert” (ahem) isn’t going to be cashing a hefty check soon (I mean, of course, basking in the psychological wealth of being correct)
4/70
Doesn’t it seem kind of odd that the Astros. a team coming of a WS title in 2017 and a 103 win season last year seem to be allowing two of their best starters in Morton and possibly Keuchel walk this year despite McCullers missing all or most of 2019 and are 1 year away from Verlader and Cole staring at FA next season?
There really hasn’t been much chatter about them being in on Keuchel or any other play for that matter.
I have a feeling they will swing a trade for a 3rd Ace before it’s over.
Southbeach: EXACTLY…take two cookies out of the jar. Fans in TB and whoever signs Dallas should consider this fact FIRST. Astros (hard to believe) have rotation issues, this year and next (yes, even with Whitley). So why let these guys walk? Unless they have a ,say, Kluber deal in the works (not impossible; they have the prospects), it’s a bit strange.
Lunhow made a comment regarding this the other day while at the winter meetings. Reminded the fans that the Cole trade happened after the winter meetings, but the first discussions were had at the winter meetings and to eventually expect some movement… having said that, I think it’s easy to imagine that McHugh gets one of the spots, another spot in the rotation is acquired. And that 5th and final rotation spot will be filled internally (Whitley, James, Armentaros). Astros will be alright.
Oh ya, they’ll be fine, 2 tanking teams, and they’re better than the A’s and Angels. I really think they have a Kluber (or someone) in the works. They have the money; they have the prospect capital.
Astros under Lunhow historically don’t leak information unless it is incredibly close. That’s why you haven’t heard anything.
If Jordan Zimmermann can get 5/$110MM, then Dallas Keuchel should be able to do the same.
Sure Keuchel is 31 vs 29 at the time of free agency, but Keuchel has a CYA to his name.
I say he gets 3 years/$57 when he finally signs in March after everyone else is set for the season. They’re scared he’ll be another Arrieta and have his ERA and hit totals slowly rise year to year.
I was thinking he would get a similar contract to Arrieta, 3/75.
If we can see the downward trend, I’m sure GM’s can too. Money has been thrown around a lot in FA thus far, but I think he gets Eovaldi type money.
4/100
Love me some Keuchel. I think he’ll age well so 5 years doesn’t scare me. Come back to us Dallas, H-Town loves you!
I want to play devil’s advocate.
Do ground ball pitchers pitch better with age?
For the record, rathr signed him over Happ due to being 6 years younger, just saying Happ blows him away with a 92.3mph four-seam strikeout pitch, one of the best.
Hope you get him!
I would wager that groundball pitchers age better than fly ball pitchers, and soft tossers age better than flame throwers. Disclaimer: this is without looking into any data.
hes getting less than his prediction probably Philly or atlanta, hes not a CY Young level pitcher any longer 4/75 is my guess
Keuchel is just not going to be viewed in that top tier methinks. Still going to get three or even four years but I just dont see a 20M AAV. Maybe on a shorter term.
Jon Heyman’s anonymous expert…Hon Jeyman.
Heyman reports whatever Boras office tells him to report.
I’ll give ya tree fiddy
Hot take here:
He gets more than $1M a year for more than a year.
I know, I know, pretty unlikely but I have an inkling it’ll pan out that way
Would love to see him as a RedLeg
If you look at his last two seasons he is probably worth 4-85 but the Phillies apparently like to over pay this off-season so he will get 5-120
Based on??? Cutch? So 3/$45M would’ve been better (at least that’s what most analysts thought he’d get)? If the Phils do overpay then that’s fine by me cuz this offseason has been very underwhelming. Just as long as they don’t do something stupid like 6 years I’ll be happy.
While they’ve got Boras in the room go ahead and sign Harper too.
I say he get a 3 year deal at 67mil 4th year club option at 22.33mil/3 mil buy out for a 70 mil total. or a 4 year deal for 80 mil 20mil per year plus 5 year club option at 18 mil/3 mil buyout for an 83 mill total.
Someone will get the winning bid. I’m betting it’ll be around $100. That team will probably regret it, for sure; but it’ll happen. He’s probably aiming for 6 years $120. Teams will want to do 4 years, but at least one of them will go to 5. I’m guessing his top offers will be for 4 years, $90M(22.5 AAV) and 5 years, $100M(20 AAV). 5 years, $100M with at least 1 opt-out.
$1
Borawill try to oversell him and he will wind up getting a much lower Deal than he thought.
4/80 by the Reds, with a 15 Mil 5th year, with a 4 mil buy out. and vesting options.
Who/which would you rather have? Keuchel for $82M for 4 years? OR Greinke for $88M for 3 years? ($25M of Greinke’s $88M would be deferred to 2025-2026 at $12.5M each of those two years. So Greinke would only be paid $63M for the 3 years 2019-2021, i.e. $21M per year!))
Greinke any day of the week.
However, Greinke will also likely cost a good prospect or two, though. Additionally, there is his no-trade protection and costs more like $100 than $88.
He’ll get less than the bloviating Heyman thinks.
4 years with a 5th year option 90mil if the 5th year option is exercised.
….more than I will earn this year….
Just saw him at baggage claim at LAX this morning. If I didn’t mistake him for another big bearded athletic guy, he seemed really happy. And no one is ever happy at LAX. I’m going with 6/90.
3/50 max. He’s still living off the Cy year.
Astros not in the DK market because they want to sign Cole to a long deal. Cole is an ACE. DK a solid #3 when healthy. I see Houston swinging a deal for another top starter and going into 2020 with Cole (big deal), whoever they deal for & Whitley as 1-2-3. I’m assuming JV finishes his career on west coast.
DK gets 5/100. Someone will bite.
DK in the NL seems like a fit for a good Brew Crew team that needs better starters to not wear out its bullpen.
I’ll say 4/60 mill, I’m very surprised by the 100+ million dollar talk. Keuchel’s k Rate and swinging strike regression this past year is a red flag. Of course his track record is good, and he throws strikes/gets a lot of grounders still but he is risky