It’s too early to count out a reunion between Dallas Keuchel and the Astros, as Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link) that Houston continues to have interest in the free agent left-hander. We haven’t heard much connecting Keuchel and the Astros this winter, though back in late December, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart speculated that the Astros could reconsider signing Keuchel if he was still on the market by late January, and if the team hadn’t made any other notable pitching signings.
This is exactly the situation both sides find themselves in, four weeks later, and it’s fair to wonder if there could be more than a “slim” chance (as McTaggart described things) of Keuchel again donning a Houston uniform in 2019. There hasn’t been much recent news on Keuchel, as it could be that his market is being held up until Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado both sign contracts. Of the teams who have been linked to Keuchel this offseason, at least three (the Phillies, Nationals, and Padres) have also had interest in one or both of Harper and Machado. Of course, Washington could be out of the running for Keuchel regardless of what happens with Harper, as the Nats have already augmented their rotation by signing Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez.
Beyond those three teams, the Reds, Rangers, Brewers, Angels, Braves, and Blue Jays have all reportedly had some level of interest in Keuchel at certain points this offseason. This group could all still be fits on paper, though Texas, Cincinnati, and Los Angeles have all preferred to add shorter-term arms to their rotations. Keuchel, meanwhile, was still looking for at least a five-year contract as of last month.
With all this in mind, there seems to be some room for the Astros to re-emerge as a potential landing spot. Keuchel is represented by Scott Boras, who has negotiated some creative contracts for his pitching clients in recent months, and thus could find some common ground if Houston is wary of making a big multi-year commitment to a 31-year-old southpaw. Since Keuchel rejected a qualifying offer, the Astros are currently in line for a compensatory draft pick if signs elsewhere, but the club could decide that foregoing that extra pick is worth it if Keuchel could be re-signed at an acceptable price.
The Astros’ pitching staff was already expected to take a hit this winter with Keuchel and Charlie Morton (now with the Rays) hitting free agency, but they lost another arm in early November when Lance McCullers underwent Tommy John surgery. While the one-two combo of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole gives Houston plenty of quality at the front of the rotation, the back end is less certain. Collin McHugh is returning to starting after a year in the bullpen, youngsters Josh James and Framber Valdez have less than a year of MLB experience between them, and some highly-touted arms in the farm system (namely top prospect Forrest Whitley and righty J.B. Bukauskas) are entirely unproven at the big league level. Adding a seasoned, playoff-tested veteran like Keuchel would go a long way towards reinforcing the staff in a year that the Astros hope to again contend for a World Series title.
Wouldn’t mind seeing that. Astros could use a lefty in their rotation.
This free agent market won’t give Keuchel what he wants
Supply and demand
Too much supply and their demands don’t meet the youth movement in baseball
I don’t disagree. I think an extension of it is that teams have felt burned more often than not by lengthy contracts. There’s also a big difference between what you have to pay in a young rookie contract guy and what you have to pay a veteran.
i agree on the supply and demand point, but would argue that it may work the other way. He’s one of few good SP options remaining, and plenty of teams still have needs.
You mean “cheap and tanking on purpose movement”.
lol
When Luhnow and Epstein did it, no one complained. Everyone saw/sees them as progressive analytical geniuses. They can never do wrong.
But now as other teams realize that maxing out the budget each year to end up 3-8 games out of the 2nd wildcard is not a good strategy, and make like moves….well, we have to belittle them and call them names.
lol some more!
Half the teams are tanking on purpose and out of contention by June. Then the guy signed in a depressed market gets traded in a salary dump in June. Owners are pocketing record revenue, depressing the market for older players that were once compensated for the value provided at massive discounts during pre arb and arb years. This market is a joke.
Keuchels GB% makes him an ideal fit for Philly. Not sure why the analytic phanatics havent inked him yet. He would be an upgrade #2 over Arrieta.
Offer him the same 3 or 5 year deal that Arrieta has. Ends up being either a 2, 3, 4 or 5 year deal.
As noted below, Charlie Morton is a significant upgrade over both and he signed for 2 years, $30M
I wouldn’t say upgrade, but certainly a more desireable contract when you factor in the fact that he only wants to play two more years.
Morton is 35. Keuchel is 30. Morton is nice if you need like 150 innings from a #4 or #5. Keuchel can give you 200+ innings. If Keuchel signed for 3/45 I’d be all over it, but that’s not likely to happen.
Morton has been a top thirty pitcher in the big leagues the past two years. 4/5? Even in Pittsburgh from 2011-2015 he had a sub four ERA with supporting xFIP and FIP.
The real problem with Keuchel is that he wants to be paid for the way he used to pitch, not the way he pitches now. 1.31 WHIP last year. That’s an average pitcher at best.
Of course the Astros are still interested in Keuchel as no doubt are a lot of teams. What they likely aren’t interested in, is a 5 or 6 year 9 figure deal, or even a high 8 figure deal for a pitcher in his 30’s. When he comes down to 3 years in the mid-8’s he’ll sign a contract.
I imagine the Reds are done looking for starting pitchers at this point, but if they did end up signing Keuchel, that would be an amazing offseason for them
The White Sox will become a mystery team for Dallas Keuchel and counteract the same scenarios with Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. This could especially be the case if they are fortunate to land either of the latter two FA’s.
Rick Hahn has already gone on record to say he is still seeking another starting pitcher this offseason even after adding Ivan Nova in the trade with the Pirates earlier this offseason. He might settle for a bounceback like candidate Ervin Santana or Clay Buchholz but will check in on Mark Buehrle like Keuchel before making that decision.
4/$64
Too high at this point. I bet it’s more like 4/$52. There’s no bidding to drive up his price.
Morton got 2/30 and is 4 years older.. 4/60-70 seems much more likely for Keuchel.
Probably closer to 4/72, but still in the same ballpark. Maybe some incentives as well.
Could see the Brewers jump in on a back-loaded and/or “creative” deal. He’s a great fit for the artist formerly known as Miller Park: creates weak contact, neutralizes lefty power, doesn’t need to be a strikeout guy with that bullpen behind him. Brewers fans been clamoring for an ace-ish pitcher for better part of 2 years now. This could be the guy they want at a price they can ultimately stomach. Could be good for Dallas too, moving to the NL for the twilight of his career on what looks like a perennial contender for a few years.
Not to mention the draft pick they’d give up is among the lowest possible picks, a la Baltimore with Nelson Cruz a few years back
Would be their 4th round pick about #130-135
Who’s the better pitcher over the next couple seasons, Morton or Keuchel? Has to be Morton by a considerable margin …. and he signed for $30M over two years. Rays know WTH they’re doin’.
Is there a team in baseball that has better pitching prospects than the Astros? Corbin Martin, JBB, Whitley, James and Framber? I would be fine signing zero free agent starting pitchers. People also forget how good McQ is in the rotation. I would also be fine signing DK if the price is right. The young guys won’t be allowed to pitch 200 innings as they have not built up to that level yet. And, we could lose Verlander and Cole after 2019. So, having Keuchel for more than 1 year might work. Just depends on the price.
This is why they haven’t signed anyone. They don’t need to. I’m sure they’d love to have DK back but not for 5/100. If they can get him at 3-4 years for 15-18 a year then I”d be completely fine with them bringing him back.
Agreed,thought 3-4 years all along to come back
This is also why I would be great with a 6 man rotation… fewer starts for Cole and Verlander….
The astros had the best rotation they’ve ever had in 2018 and three of the five are gone in 2019. They didn’t run away with the division either despite this. A rude awakening is coming.
Atlanta
They really only need 1 more SP. With McHugh back in the rotation and James/Valdez available for the 5th spot they wouldn’t need to sign another guy if they got Keuchel, especially with Whitley likely ready to come up if needed as well.
Verlander
Cole
Keuchel
McHugh
James
Looks great to me.
He’d fit well in Anaheim with ground balls getting converted by Simba, Cozart, and Fletcher (first bade not so much ha ha).
At the right price, lots of teams will be interested.
Dallas has lost a little… he is a lot like Maddux was. A soft throwing ground ball pitcher that relied on a wider strike zone. If the upms give him the call low and off the plate he is a Cy young candidate. If not, he is an easy to hit lefty that barely makes it through 2 rounds of the order.
I love the Astros, and really appreciate what Dallas has done for the team. But , unless he is able to sign for a nice discount, I would prefer another solution.
With the attrition that’s happened & possibly that could happen next offseason, this wouldn’t be a bad reunion & when it’s all said & done, he could be in the upper echelon of Astro greats like Kile, Niekro, Richard, Scott, Ryan, etc…
cashman, please
What did he turn down in 2016 or 17? 5 years at $90/MM? Not sure that is what his value is now. Lots of stupid owners though.
Love to see the Orioles sign him to 4 year deal. Let him lead the young kids b
the only problem with signing keuchel is, would that be the best move for the future? how will we be able to keep verlander and/or cole if Keuchel wants 15-20 mil? we cant wrap up too much future payroll for a up and down pitcher like him especially when we need to resign at least verlander in 2020.. that’s not even to mention what Springer, Correa, and bregman are going to want soon enough..
Houston should sign Keuchel to a 1 year 20 million contract with an 2020 option. Like this he can once again help out the 2019 World Series contention and then prove that he deserves the longer contract for big money the following year is he wants to leave.
Why on earth would Keuchel sign a one year deal after the season he just had? So he can enter free agency looking for a long term deal one year older and possibly improving on the season he just had by 5%?
Exactly, eventually he’s looking for the long deal, sign him 1 yr. With 2 option…he only came on strong 2nd half…reason why he hasn’t been picked up…ride him for this year and let him go…win win for both sides..
He’s on the wrong side of thirty. He’s looking for the long term deal now, and after the season he had (3.00 something ERA and 200 innings) any offers he receives now will be max value. I can’t see a scenario where his value goes up after 2019.
I’m just stating the obvious, pitchers and catchers are reporting soon to spring training…if someone is going to give him 5 yr deal it would have happened by now…I dont want to tie him down long term…if he’s still out there offer him something more than his tending offer of 17 mil was…I’m thinking in view of organization…by my view we cut ties, but wouldn’t mind 1 more yr at a lower cost and save on Cole or next year’s free agent crop.
The Astros have their closer: Roberto Osuna. Avoided arbitration. Would make sense to lock him up long term.
Unless he finds himself locked up behind bars.
Astros: You know, we could use a lefty starter.
Kuechel’s Agent: Look, we could drop the price a little and work something out.
.Astros: you still want 5 years?
…and that’s the roadblock. Nobody wants to give Dallas a long-term deal. He and his agent better be prepared to settle for 2 plus an option, 3 plus an option if he’s lucky.