Rockies star Nolan Arenado has been a consistent star on both sides of the ball for some time now. He’ll turn 28 early in the 2019 season, meaning that his monster new contract runs through his age-35 season.
It’s easy to like the Rockies’ decision at first glance. Arenado joins Charlie Blackmon as a homegrown star who’ll stick around through his prime. The organization clearly intends to keep a contention window propped open for some time, even if that means committing to some rather lofty spending levels. With other talent on hand, and more intriguing players filtering up through the system, a sustained run of competitiveness is perhaps within reach.
The risks, though, lurk just below the surface. Blackmon took a step back in 2019 and the team has some other hefty commitments to underperforming players. The club will open the 2019 season with over $140MM on the books for the first time and already has north of $110MM obligated for 2020, along with $70MM or so for the following season. Arbitration obligations will rise as well.
Arenado’s deal sets an AAV record for position players and is unquestionably a major commitment. It gives him full no-trade protection, so the Rockies may find it challenging to move the deal if that proves necessary. The team granted Arenado the ability to bail out and test the open market after three seasons, too, meaning he holds the upside with ample downside protection as well. While Arenado would have had a chance to beat seven years and $234MM in free agency next winter, it’s tough to say that represents any kind of discount, particularly when locked in a year in advance.
Paying market value doesn’t mean the Rox were misguided, of course. By doing so now, they kept other clubs from out-bidding or otherwise wooing their best and most popular player. There was obviously a significant risk of being forced to choose between losing Arenado or paying a fair bit more to retain him, particularly with numerous big-market clubs reputedly eyeing him as a target.
All things considered, how do you grade the deal from the Rockies’ perspective? (Link for app users.)
The Yankees preferred Arenado to Machado, as did a bunch of other teams. You let him hit FA, and he’s as good as gone. Bonus: Also extended Blackmon.
Given these circumstances: A.
Yep, this is an A+ extension in my opinion.
I’m guessing you’ll feel different 5 years from today.
Arenado is a product of Coors Field and one of the best defensive third baseman alive. His worth to the Rockies far exceeds his worth to the Yankees or any other team.
You’re clueless if you think he’s a product of Coors.
I tend to disagree. It was a great extension for both, but imho, had he gone the FA route, some team would have been saddled with a potentially bad contract. Analytics strongly favor him at home. Strongly. Most everywhere else, he’s a great fielding, somewhat mediocre hitter. I’ve never been a fan of the Colorado Effect. With that having been said, there’s plenty of hitters out there that have heavily weighted H/R splits that are somewhat inexplicable. In the end, if you own this guy in Colorado, a Strat-o-Matic league. or fantasy league (especially), you have to be happy tonight.
You’re clueless if you think it’s not a factor. Look at road splits. They are slightly above ordinary.
Not a Rockies Fan!He’s the best 3rd Basemen on the Planet so that’s not worth a lot Ding Dong?Try something else because your not good at this
He’s the best defensive 3rd baseman on the planet. Because of the Coors affect, we’ll never know how well his offense translates in a neutral park.
I would say Chapman is the best now at the hot corner.
You guys forget a guy named machado ???
Chapman is the best defensive 3erd baseman and Ramirez is the best all-around.
I understand his road splits tell a tale but everyone also said that about Matt Holiday and when he came to St Louis he put up great numbers…does Coors help Arenado? Sure. But let’s not let that take away from the fact he is one of the best in the game right now and deserves every bit of that money
And 3 of the 4 teams he faces on the road in that division play in pitchers parks
And in the end, it doesn’t matter anyway about his home-road splits because he’s staying in Coors. For every Matt Holiday there’s a Castilla or Hawpe or Garret Atkins or Bichette or…well, you get the picture. Arenado is better than all those guys, of course, and he’ll continue to be an elite player because he’s staying in a situation that suits him perfectly.
Not so clueless. Look at his home/road splits and tell me what you see….
Actually we do know, since wRC+ accounts for park factors. Arenado’s is 130, which means he’s 30% better than average.
@sandiego4life
I suspect they did not forget about Machado
Holliday was juicing in Stl
You clearly haven’t looked at his splits. They’re pretty brutal. BA, OBP were down 100 points on the road, slugging down 230 & all of his road averages were well below average. Even Longoria’s road BA & Slg were higher than Arenado’s.
That’s a terrible example. Yes, Holliday had big splits, but almost always hit .300 on the road, hit .280 in 2006. The best Arenado has done was .283, last year hit .248. Holliday was a good hitter on the road & a great one at home. Arenado is a very good hitter at home & at best an average one on the road. Sorry, overrated.
his home/away splits are shocking… he’s definitely somewhat a product of Coors Field. Albeit I think he’s great enough that he could adjust and be a star anywhere. you cant possibly dismiss how shockingly better he performs at home vs on the road
Just like Mookie Betts is a product of Fenway Park or Aaron Judge is a product of Yankee Stadium? Idiot.
Yeah. When you put guys in Padres uniforms, the rest of baseball does tend to forget them. For good reason.
Home/road splits are useless when evaluating Rockies hitters. USELESS! First. they are the only team in the league that doesn’t have an artificial road average boost from Coors Field. Every other team does. There doesn’t even need to be a second, but Rockies hitters road stats are a full one third made up of games played in LA, SF, and SD. The only other team that occurs with is Arizona and they still get the road Coors boost. Thirdly, Coors Field is such an outlier when it come to home parks that it naturally will make a larger gap between home and road than any other park. Finally, home/road splits are a faulty stat in general and not really useful for determining anything. Home stats are obviously different based on your team, but road stats are too. There is real control group. Each team’s road average make up is different than all others. The stat is just useless.
Arenado is still a very good player but Coors does pump his batting average. He is a career .313 BA at home and .264 BA on the road. His power is still close, considering it is Coors. 108 homers at home and 78 on the road.
Except Holliday batted .300+, .850+ OPS his last 3 years in CO before moving to St Louis.
Did you listen to a word that heflew said?
Mediocre? Well, so is Harper overall if you discount one outlier season… hasn’t dampened the media hype, or contract expectations, on him either.
At least rockies are getting what they get in coos field, so, that’s something
He hits well in San Diego and San Fran, so it’s quite overblown that he’s a product of Coors. People seem to say this for every good Colorado bat (Matt Holliday and Dexter Fowler come to mind), yet they still hit once on a different team.
Now what does that explain, I mean as for the final sentence of your comment?
As a a Dodgers fan who sees Arenado play often, I will say, without a doubt, that he is the best overall third baseman in the game. Turner would have multiple gold gloves if Arenado was not in the NL.
Happy for 5 and unhappy for 3? That seems reasonable. Most contracts work this way. You are underpaid for you earlier years and overpaid for later years. The key is the balance. With a guy like Pujols, you figured to be happy for 2 years and unhappy for 8 years.
Watched them all with the best Stat of all,2-Eyes,And listened to other Players and Managers talk,Arenado is the best in any park and he got payed for it,haha Manny
15 HR and 48 RBI on the road is WAY above ordinary. Most players have significant drops on the road. Is better at Coors, of course. But he’s still a great player away from there as well.
There were TEN 3B that hit between 14-16 HRs on road last year. 1st was Carpenter with 23, then Ramirez with 20, followed by those ten players. There were also 19 that had higher average on road.
Analytics (as well as common sense) strongly consider MOST players having better #’s at home vs on the road. Looking at park adjusted #’s show Arenado is FAR BETTER than “a product of Coors field”. His #’s are well above average plus throw in his defensive excellence.
(to macstruts): What’s a neutral park?
@hiflew I just flagged your post…for being so damn awesome.
I wouldn’t call it an A. They did make him the highest paid position player in baseball. They got a really good player at a premium price. It’s what you would expect, making it an average deal IMO. B at best.
Small-market teams’ who keep their (super) stars, get graded on a curve. B —> A.
X, you are the carl everett of mlbtr. If you were a product of homegrown mlbtr talent you would never be extended. Brush you off to free agency and say good luck New York.
I’m glad the Spankees can’t get him, and they missed on Machado!
absolutely no issue here. a great deal for a guy who might have the issue of splits impacting his market, and for a team willing to pay a great player they money he should play up to.
1 of the top five players in the game. It’s all Monopoly money anyway.
Look at his road splits, I would expect one of the top five players to hit everywhere. He doesn’t.
Most of the other parks in the west are pitcher’s parks.
Every player hits worse on the road. That doesn’t mean much.
Buster Posey doesn’t, but I guess you’ll go on about pitchers parks, but he takes there too.
Coors is one of his main away parks…so…
Matt Holliday, Larry Walker and Dexter Fowler all managed to hit elsewhere just fine after leaving Coors, and they all had better home stats than road while with Colorado. Also, Arenado has an OPS over .800 on the road. Nothing to sneeze at, particularly in the NL West
Macstruts, you’ve written the same point several times on here already. Most people already know about the road splits and accounted for them, before they posted their favorable opinions. You aren’t the only one to either read the article before this one, that includes his splits;or, look up his numbers on their own.
His roads splits, despite not being anywhere close to his home stats are actually not that bad,
Last two seasons, away from home, 3B only. Arenado ranks:
wRC+: 15th with 115. He’s sandwiched by Moustakas at 116 and Eugenio Suarez at 112. 1st is Jose Ramirez with 151. For those wondering, Machado is 29th with 90.
OPS: 11th with .829. Just ahead of Moustakas and behind Shaw.
ISO: 11th with .223.
Although they aren’t perfect, defensive metrics has him ranked 4th, behind Chapman, Rendon, and Seager.
I am happy the Rockies got this done
Arenado is a good ball player with a good attitude
Something to consider. The rox rotation are young and relatively cheap. It allows them to put their $ into the offense or bullpen.
Rox get an A for the extension, but you get a B for this post. “Too” doesn’t need a comma before it.
Your comment, too, earns a B from me.
Boom roasted
There’s no rule against it. You’re free to disagree with my stylistic choice, but your point has been heard and discussed already. One debatable comma can’t possibly be important enough, or have enough of an impact on the actual experience of reading a post, to warrant repeated and extensive debate.
Though different subjects, whenever I write a paper, I try to capture ur “stylistic writing choice.”
Though I fail every time, that doesn’t stop me from trying. More your work stands out, the more trolls. Also credit your humbleness and humility. You’re my favorite writer, Pl don’t ever change, Jeff!
I’ve seen much worse here, no big deal Jeff, just keep bringing us intell!!!
@KF
You’ve got to be SO MUCH FUN to live with. I do, however, marvel at your intellectual superiority
Does anyone else get tired of players being on the same team for their whole careers? That’s why I did not like this. I also want to see Mike Trout in another jersey for once. (DO NOT bring up Alex Gordon!!!)
George Brett. A Royal through and through.
No one would want to be in Royals Jersey their whole life bahaha
Probably why Brett’s a jerk.
Your the 1% who isn’t sick of players changing teams all the time.
I bet you yell “get on my lawn”
Very well played, sir
I love when players stick with the same team throughout their career. One of my favorites was Tim Salmon who won the rookie of the year in 1993 and hit 2 home runs in the 2002 World Series with the Angels.
I have a hard time being confident in this extension when his defensive metrics took such a hit last year. Thats a long extension for a possibly slowing down 3B. However, great player and both sides seem to be happy with it so good for them c:
top 10 MLB player…. for the Rockies. on any other team (look at his home/away splits) maybe not?
I’m a Giants fan. I dread him, regardless if it’s at home or away.
I think it’s a B. . . I think it’s a little bit too much. . .
I thought the same thing. I just don’t see them being happy with his salary during his age 34 and 35 seasons when he will likely regress. it looks good now, and I’m sure it will for a few years, but by the end, it will start to resemble an albatross contract. I gave it a B simply because I’m happy to see them shell out this kind of money and commit to their on field product the way every team in baseball should.
As long as he didnt go to the yanks I am fine with it. Great deal for both sides. I wonder if this would and will have effected Machado and Harper? Trout and Betts are probably very happy with this signing.
Good hitter
Great defender
Good kid
Franchise face.
Need/want in the Bronx
This is a great extension, especially since we don’t know what Harper will eventually sign for. Worse case scenario at 34 you have to move him to 1B.
why is every picture of Nolan with his mouth wide open?
Brilliant move.
Really surprised at the overwhelming support this deal is experiencing vs the Machado deal. This deal has fewer prime years and only one less “bad” year. And it comes at a higher AAV with a hitter who looks pretty normal when playing at less than 5000 feet. Oh, and this was done a year earlier than necessary and without other bidders.
As much as I love Arenado, the Machado deal is the better value.
Couldn’t agree more. Plus Machado played his career in the AL East. Machado>Harper
Because when a player comes out and says he doesn’t hustle there’s always a doubt in your mind whether he gave his all or not on a given play.
Still not sure why the Pads signed him. With all those young kids, that deal has the chance to be a really bad one.
You can weigh his comment against 6 years of performance. I’ll take performance all day long. It was a stupid thing to say and there are reasons to be wary about cutting him a $300m check. But his performance is far more telling.
Check out Machado’s home/road splits.
Absolutely. There is a difference. However, it’s easier to chalk that up to the “normal” splits most players have given how Camden Yards plays. With anyone in CO, it’s almost impossible to know how good that player truly is outside of Denver. Maybe he’s Matt Holliday and hits well anywhere. Or maybe he’s more Dante Bichette.
Dante Bichette hit as good in his final two years in Cincinnati and Boston as he did in his last two years in Colorado. He left Colorado around the age 36. Why is he penalized for not hitting like he did at 26 when was 37? Everyone says that these guys don’t hit elsewhere as good as in Colorado. Well, duh. They all spent their PRIME years playing in Denver. Matt Holliday and Dexter Fowler left in the middle of their prime years, so of course they are going to be as good elsewhere.
Babe Ruth didn’t hit nearly as well with the Boston Braves as he did with the Yankees. Was he a product of Yankee Stadium? Willie Mays was horrible with the Mets, does that mean he was only a good player because he played in San Francisco?
Blackmon’s contract was a mistake…..
Not for Charlie.
Good for him and good for the Rockies. Although he’s a perfect case of a guy that benefits greatly from Coors Field… BA & OBP about 60 points lower on the road and 58% of HRs hit at home.
I’m a big fan of star players spending their careers, or the bulk of them, with one team.
I’m also a big fan of players getting what they’re worth.
Often those two are it odds with each other. In this case they’ve lined up perfectly.
A.
I love this for Arenado, the Rockies and the game of baseball. Though there were murmurs this might happen, there wasn’t any soap opera-styled negotiating in the media. Just two sides getting together, trusting each other, and quietly getting a deal done. With what we’ve had to endure this winter, it’s nice to see professionalism and mutual respect winning out over ego-driven insanity.
Great deal for both sides. Love it.
Definitely a better player than Machado or Harper, glad to see him get his due.
For people criticizing his home/road splits and comparing him to Machado, take a look at Machado’s splits.
Exactly. And to be fair, most players do better at home. It’s just a fact.
Nolan Arenado
link to fangraphs.com
Home Splits for wRC+
2013 85
2014 123
2015 123
2016 136
2017 133
2018 161
link to fangraphs.com
Road Splits for wRC+
2013 68
2014 99
2015 119
2016 116
2017 126
2018 104
Manny Machado
link to fangraphs.com
Home Splits for wRC+
2012 101
2013 100
2014 145
2015 147
2016 134
2017 133
2018 180
link to fangraphs.com
Road Splits for wRC+
2012 93
2013 103
2014 79
2015 124
2016 128
2017 71
2018 106
I voted C solely because of the opt-out. At that value, take it or leave it. As a GM, I would never give an early contract opt-out. It might mean losing some good or great players, but I think the downside is too great.
I see the opt-out as a commitment to Arenado that management plans on building a winner around him. If it doesn’t happen, he would still be young enough to pursue a championship elsewhere. In that sense, it is fair to both parties as well as Rockies fans.
I cannot agree with you, but I wish it was true.
Arenado’s decision to opt out will have nothing to do with the standings and everything to do with his earning potential.
Has a player ever opted out or not based on the team?
Arenado signed THIS deal based on team more than maximum earning potential as a free agent. What makes you think he wouldn’t do so again? Not everyone’s priorities revolve around solely money. Karl Malone and John Stockton are but two of many examples in the sports world. Clayton Kershaw this past winter is another. Instead of opting out, he re-upped where he is happy. An opt-out is fair in any long-term contract. It doesn’t mean the athlete will use it.
In the NBA and NFL, players can cross their arms and pout until they get sent to a competitive franchise. It happens all the time.
Greatest most fair extension of all time. Im serious. Excellent job on both sides.
Im typically not a fan of longterm high aav contracts, but its hard to argue against it for arenado. Good offensively, defensively, and consistently. And u dont hear stories about his bad attitude, getting in trouble, or any other drama. About only players more deserving would be trout or betts.
A+
As a fan of the Rockies in Colorado, Arenado’s defense alone is worth the price of admission. You’re almost guaranteed a standing ovation play every game.
As for his offense on the road (which seems to be his “downfall”)
Arenado’s Career AWAY OPS .787
Machado’s Career AWAY OPS .761
I’d take Arenado’s character, defense, offense, leadership, and deal over Machado’s every day of the week.
With Colorado headed into uncharted territory regarding committed salary, my concern has to do with their ability to address future needs, specifically possible short-term needs.
Desmond and McMahon are two pretty sizeable question marks and the fallback options are unproven. They might need a boost behind the plate as well, and if there isn’t a ton of financial flexibility, their shopping list of realistic targets for upgrades could be short enough to write on a hand.
That said, I think it was wise to get this deal done. I just hope they’re not handcuffed the way Seattle was at the deadline last season.
First of all, to settle the “product of Coors” argument
Career Splits
Home:
438 games, 1853 plate appearances, 108 home runs, 376 RBI’s, .320/.374/.609 (.904 OPS)
Away
438 games, 1842 plate appearances, 78 home runs, 240 RBI’s, .263/.318/.469 (.787 OPS)
Based on his defense, he would still be a notable third baseman if he played elsewhere, but he wouldn’t be a superstar. That 318 OBP is concerning.
Machado’s career splits:
Home:
456 Games, 1965 plate appearances, 106 home runs, 266 RBIs, .295/.353/.534 (.887 OPS)
Away:
470 Games, 2109 plate appearances, 69 home runs, 247 RBIs, .271/.319/.442 (.761 OPS)
According to this logic, Manny Machado (that .319 is concerning) is definitely no superstar and Arenado deserves more money. Great deal for Arenado and the Rockies. Excellent deal for Machado. Poor deal for the Padres.
Ok, a lot to unpack in this comment
First of all, yes, your closing statement is actually correct
Machado, who spent all but 2 months of his career playing half of his games at Camden Yards and a very significant amount in the other AL East parks, pretty much all hitter friendly parks, will see his production suffer a bit moving to Petco (one of the most pitcher friendly parks). He also doesn’t have plate discipline or guaranteed line-up protection to fall back on either.
With Arenado re-joining the Rockies at a comparable rate to Machado, he remains in a city, in which he’s been the hero over the past five seasons, that also has a very hitter friendly ballpark (which he’s also grown accustomed to). Furthermore, Arenado has more protection in the line-up with Blackmon, Murphy, Dahl and Story.
I think both guys lack of plate discipline will harm them as they get toward the back-ends of these deals, but the fact that Arenado will continue to play at Coors should keep his bottom line numbers higher than average.
Machado drew 70 walks last year against 104 Ks. That’s decidedly not evidence of a “lack of plate discipline”
And linup protection was dispelled decades ago. It’s a myth.
Valid point, but he does play 50% at home and hes road numbers arent too shabby.
Don’t get me wrong. Rn He’s worth all that AAV. however… I’m always a little skeptical dropping huge money on a corner infeider, especially when you’re not a traditional ‘big spender’.
The first three years of this deal could be fantastic for the Rockies. But if he’s proforming at the level you want for the next three years, than he’ll excerise that 3-year option leaving you with another potential FA.
If he’s not producing at that level at year three, well than… you’ll have a payroll dumb on your hands.
All in all… this deal is great in the short term… long term still murky…. C grade overall.
You have had extensions before. Every season it was “IF” Tulo and Cargo are healthy.
Man, good for the Rockies. I hope they win a division title. Arenado deserves to win MVP this year
The humor in this is that after the Giants and Dodgers were mentioned to be in on Harper, this comes out, driving his price up add possibly pushing him into the Phillies arms.
Coors Field is at a higher altitude. The ball travels farther in higher altitudes, due to lower air pressure.
Yeah and? We’ve all known that since 1993.
Everyone mentions how easy it is to discount his hitting in Coors, but look at the other parks in the nl west. those are all massive parks. that really eats into the splits as well
What is interesting is the Rockies and Padres had been gun shy about getting tied into big contracts. Now both have locked down some big time players but they had quality prospects behind them. The Padres could almost start an entire 2nd OF, C, 3B, 2B and SS with their depth. The Rockies now have Welker, Rodgers, Tapia, Dahl, Hampson and McMahon either close or at the major league level. Dahl is the only one that looks like is a lock to start.
I wonder if we will see some block buster deals out of them during the season if they compete.
When you look through the best third basemen to compare to Arenado through the age of 27, it’s Matt Williams, Scott Rolen, Ryan Zimmerman, Eric Chavez and Bob Horner.
Only Rolen aged well (and that was with a lot of injuries)
I’m gonna take the under on Arenado producing 20.0 WAR over the remainder of his career, which is why I voted D
Of those 5, only Rolen is really even close defensively and even he is not as good as Nolan. Plus, injuries played a big part in the downfall of Zimmerman and Horner.
I calculated 33.9. 5.3 this year, take off .25 per year for 3-4 years, and then .5 for a few years.. In order for the 20.0 to be correct, and assuming we agree on ~ 5.3 for this year, that leaves 14.7 for the remaining 7 years, or 2.1 per year.
Williams was actually still an MVP candidate in his age-33 season; he fell off the cliff after that, but that’s basically when Arenado’s deal ends. Third basemen tend to age out of the position early and, if they can hit enough, become first basemen. But because most third basemen don’t hit enough to play first they end up as utility guys or out of the game. It’s one reason why third base is the least-represented position in the Hall of Fame.
. The Beltres and Nettles of the world are rare – guys who ply into their late-30s and stay at the hot corner. Nettles was still playing third into his early 40s, even long after his bat had disappeared.
I gave it a “B” for being sharp enough to lock him up, but I think it’s a “slight” overpay. Now you have to wonder what kind of money Betts will get.
He should get about the same. His age at the time he becomes a FA, will the same as Arenado’s age when he would’ve become a FA. You could argue which is the better player, but even as a RS player, I’d guess they are about the same.
I think the number for Betts would be the pay for the additional 7 years past his 2019 arbitration year ($260M-$26M) that Arenado got, plus the $20M that Betts gets this year, plus an estimated $25M that Betts will get in next year’s arbitration, for a total of $279M/9.
It’s all good, any time “big” money goes from an owner to a player. Nolan deserves every penny!
A for owners… their 2 freeze outs have resulted in more extensions. So not only do they get to manipulate service times, they get exclusive contract negotiations to suppress free agent years. So I see extensions being done out of fear of being frozen out. Good for Arenado getting a fair shake but bad for baseball in not allowing the actual free market dictate the true value
All that is happening now is that owners are getting smarter about the aging process than they use to be. Signing VMart to $68M/4 for ages 36-39, Miggy $240/8 to age 40, Pujols $240M/10 to age 41. Not happening anymore.
As a RS fan, I’d gladly give the Hicks extension to JBJ, or the Arenado extension to Betts. But as much as I like these guys, they can’t reasonably signed past about age 36.
Excellent hitter, top-tier defender, good teammate and team rep by all accounts, and doesn’t extend into ages 36 onward. Seems worth it to me.
For as talented as Harper and Machado are, I’d take Arenado any day of the week – he’s just as talented offensively, a superior defender, has been more consistent, and detracts nothing from the team with drama, dirty play, or silly comments.
Looking at the results of this poll and the poll after Machado signed leaves me a bit confused by the readership here. Around 54% of readers here think Arenado’s extension is an A for the Rockies, while 60% of readers think that Machado’s contract was an overpay for the Padres. Below are some of their offensive numbers and defensive numbers at 3B over the past 3 seasons.
Arenado age 25-27 seasons: 131 OPS+, 129 wRC+, 134 DRC+, 116 HR
11.1 DRS/1k innings, 3.9 UZR/1k innings
Contract: $33.4mm/season age 29-35 seasons
Machado age 23-25 seasons: 128 OPS+, 125 wRC+, 126 DRC+, 107 HR
8.7 DRS/1k innings, 4.9 UZR/1k innings
Contract: $30mm/season age 26-35
The thing most people complained about for Machado was paying him $30 mm in his mid 30’s. Where is the outrage in paying Arenado over $33 mm in his mid 30’s? At least with Machado, you also get his age 26-28 seasons which are usually a player’s most productive seasons.
My guess, and it’s only a guess, is that the makeup of manny has part to do with it, the extra years of uncertainty at the end has part to do with it.
Some people forget earlier seasons when Manny had “bad boy attitude” issues with the Os long before he called into question the long term nature of his effort level – yes, long even before the 1st base kick or Pedroia slide. Mercurial is a word that comes to mind for me.
FWIW I don’t grade this signing as an “a” personally either. They pay essentially market rate, take all the downside risk, and give opt outs and full no trade? Doesn’t sound like much bargaining, not sure what else they could’ve even given him here.
Any big commitment has risks & as such a B to B+ grade for me.
yup, agree here. the Rockies didn’t do anything wrong, it’s just inherently risky to give out that kind of money to anyone.
I think the best way to grade this would be to look at what was likely to have happened to the franchise if this didn’t occur.
You would lose the majority of your offense at the end of the season while having the best pitching staff in team history. The Rockies have never won a division title and 2019 would probably be the last real chance of winning it. If you don’t win it, you are probably looking at half a decade or more of trying to rebuild.
By signing him, you have extended your window at least a couple more years until Trevor Story and the young pitchers start getting really expensive and/or ineffective. If he opts out in 2021, you have a full scale rebuild then. If he doesn’t, you can continue to try and hang with the LAs and SFs of the division.
A+
I gave the Rockies a “B,” but only because there is an inherent risk of giving a player $260 million. If Arenado’s peak lasts another five years + and declines gracefully, the grade will change to an A.
I think Nolan, his agent, the fans, and MLB get an A for this deal.
For the Rockies as a team, I can’t go higher than a C. I don’t see this as a great deal for the Rockies since they essentially paid market rate for this contract a year before it needed to be paid. Granted there may not have been an extension for anything less and Arenado seems to have created a lot of additional value from goodwill with the team.
However, if the Yankees get an A for the Hicks deal I don’t see how this could also be an A for the Rockies. Hicks took what appears to be a discount in AAV and total dollars. Some would argue Arenado went at a slight premium compared to what he would have received a year from now (others may argue its a slight discount, but I digress).
Assuming he would command MM or Harper money next year, this is a steal for the Rockies. He’s young enough he needs to maintain this top lvl of play for another contract in the future or even 3 years. So give him a lot of upside and he makes bank in the meantime. Plus, it pays to be a face of a franchise… a Chipper Jones for the braves
Arenado received more than Machado and probably similar or more than Harper will. Arenado will be paid $33.4mm until he is 35. Machado will be paid $30mm until he is 35. People keep talking about the downfalls of 10 year contracts, but the problem isn’t the 10 year contract as much as it usually involves paying a player into his late 30’s or even early 40’s. I would argue a 10 year contract for a 26 year old Machado is more desirable than a 7 year contract for a 29 year old Arenado. The Arenado contract will be mostly decline years, whereas the Machado deal wll include his prime and even has the chance for improvement during the early years.
If Kris Bryant wants this type of contract, he might want to put up back-to-back mvp seasons. And that might not be enough.
I gave the Rockies an A.
Thanks, mlbtraderumors!
It’s nice to be able to post something somewhere.
MLB.com no longer allows it (but, why???) and the Denver Post discourages even reading their site online.. You’d think they’d want eyeballs and feedback… On MLB.com you’d think they’d want to hear what the fans have to say. They should want the fans to be able to express themselves… Besides, it’s fun.