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Nolan Arenado

This Date In Transactions History: Nolan Arenado’s 2019 Extension

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Today marks six years since the signing of the largest contract in Rockies history. On February 26, 2019, Colorado signed Nolan Arenado to a seven-year extension that guaranteed $234MM. It kept the star third baseman from reaching the open market the following offseason. The franchise-record deal also included a full no-trade clause and the right to opt out after the 2021 season.

It looked to cement the defensive stalwart as the face of the franchise for the upcoming decade. Arenado was coming off his fourth consecutive finish among the top 10 in MVP balloting. He’d landed in the top five three years running. Over the preceding four seasons, Arenado was sixth among position players in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement — trailing Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, Kris Bryant and Francisco Lindor. The Rockies had made the playoffs in consecutive seasons and were coming off a 91-win campaign that included a Wild Card game victory over the Cubs.

A relatively small-market franchise extending a player of that caliber one year from free agency was cause for excitement among Colorado fans. That optimism was dashed as the relationship went south incredibly quickly. Arenado had arguably the best season of his career in year one, hitting .315/.379/.583 with 41 homers to earn a sixth-place MVP finish. Yet the team won 20 fewer games than they had in ’18, kicking off an ongoing stretch of at least six straight losing seasons.

By the following offseason, a rift had emerged between Arenado and then-GM Jeff Bridich. Arenado was reportedly displeased with Colorado’s lack of moves to put a competitive roster around him. He was the subject of trade rumors by the 2019-20 offseason. Bridich publicly shot down trade possibilities that winter. Arenado remained in Colorado for the shortened season. It was an underwhelming year for player and team alike that did nothing to improve the relationship.

Two years after signing the extension, the Rockies found themselves attempting to offload as much money as possible owed to their disgruntled star. It wasn’t an easy contract to move. The no-trade gave Arenado the ability to pick his destination. The deal contained six years and $199MM in remaining guarantees with the potential for Arenado to opt out after one season.

The trade Colorado found was a disappointment even in that context. The Cardinals landed Arenado that February for a five-player return led by back-end starter Austin Gomber. He’s a capable fifth starter. None of the other four players — Elehuris Montero, Mateo Gil, Jake Sommers and Tony Locey — remain in the organization. Montero is the only member of that group who even reached the majors and he was a sub-replacement performer.

Colorado kicked in $51MM to facilitate the deal, while Arenado agreed to a restructured contract that deferred part of his 2022-26 salaries while adding a $15MM salary for 2027. Bridich was out as GM three months later. One year after dumping $148MM of the Arenado contract, the Rox signed Bryant to his ill-fated $182MM free agent deal.

The sequence served as a precursor to this winter’s series of trade rumors. Arenado played at a superstar level for his first two seasons in St. Louis, helping the team to consecutive playoff berths. His production over the past two years has been more solid than exceptional. The Cards have missed the playoffs in both and are looking more toward the future than short-term contention. They spent all offseason trying to move Arenado to a contender while moving most of the remaining money. The no-trade clause again allowed him to be particular regarding the teams to which he’d approve a deal.

After he famously nixed a move to the Astros in December, Arenado is expected to play what’ll be his fifth season in St. Louis. He’s into the final two seasons of the deal he’d initially signed with Colorado. He’s due $32MM and $27MM respectively over the next two years, though he agreed to defer $6MM annually to facilitate the trade to St. Louis. The Rockies are still paying down $5MM in each of those seasons. St. Louis is fully responsible for the tacked-on $15MM salary in ’27, which is not deferred.

“No Traction” Between Cardinals, Astros In Nolan Arenado Talks

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While a report earlier today revealed that the Cardinals and Astros have resumed discussions regarding veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado, a report from Chandler Rome and Katie Woo of The Athletic this evening has cast doubt on the likelihood of a deal coming together. According to Rome and Woo, although the sides did re-engage about Arenado in the aftermath of Alex Bregman signing with the Red Sox, those renewed discussions were “brief” and that there has been no traction gained on a deal between the sides. Rome and Woo add that Arenado’s stance on waiving his no-trade clause to join the Astros has not changed to this point.

The report meshes with comments from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak earlier today, in which he suggested to reporters that he didn’t feel anything was “imminent” regarding Arenado. Rome and Woo go on to relay that sources described the possibility of a deal coming together between the two teams as a “long shot,” adding that a deal the sides discussed involving Arenado was considered a “non-starter.” Given that description of talks between the two sides, it’s not entirely clear if Arenado has been approached by St. Louis brass about the possibility of approving a trade to Houston since the Astros tried to reignite talks or if discussions between the sides did not advance far enough for Mozeliak to even broach the subject with his veteran star.

Even when Arenado first blocked a trade to Houston back in December, reporting was quick to emphasize that Arenado’s reluctance to approve the trade was not necessarily a final decision and that he was hoping to survey his own market as well as see how the Astros planned to improve the club after trading star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs just before Arenado vetoed a prospective move to Houston. Now that Bregman has landed in Boston, the Red Sox join the Padres and Dodgers as unlikely landing spots for the veteran due to their full infield mixes. The Yankees have a clear hole at third base Arenado could step into fairly seamlessly, but talks between the Bronx and St. Louis have failed to gain traction due to New York’s unwillingness to spend much beyond their current payroll projection.

That leaves the Astros as the final team reportedly on Arenado’s initial list of approved suitors as things stand. It’s possible that the lack of clear alternative options, in tandem with the Astros’ addition of Christian Walker to their infield mix, would be enough to convince Arenado to approve a trade to Houston. At the same time, it’s entirely possible that Arenado would prefer to play the first half of the season out in St. Louis at this point before both he and Mozeliak reassess the situation over the summer, when St. Louis’s position in an unsettled NL Central division will be more clear and Arenado will have a more concrete idea of which clubs are contenders for the coming postseason.

Rome and Woo go on to note that the Astros’ latest push to swing a deal for Arenado highlights the questions surrounding the Astros’ lineup at this point. Longtime second baseman Jose Altuve appears to be moving towards playing left field at least on a part-time basis, though a trade for Arenado would be expected to make the veteran a full-time presence in left while Isaac Paredes slides from third base to second to accommodate Arenado. Should Altuve end up moving to left field for the majority of his reps this year, that leaves the club fairly thin around the infield with only Mauricio Dubon and non-roster invitees like Brendan Rodgers and Luis Guillorme available to play second base on days Altuve is in left and/or back up the rest of the club’s infield mix.

Even if Altuve were to remain at second base close to full time, however, it can be argued the club is still a bat short. Jake Meyers appears poised to be the club’s regular center fielder with Ben Gamel and Chas McCormick handling the outfield corners. Gamel and McCormick both feature significant platoon splits, however, and adding at least one part-time outfield bat to the mix seems prudent whether that’s the addition of Altuve to the outfield mix or an external addition should the veteran remain on the infield dirt.

Free agent options are relatively scarce at this point in the calendar, with Jose Iglesias and Whit Merrifield the best infield pieces still available while Alex Verdugo, Mark Canha, and David Peralta are among a handful of outfield options still on the market. It’s also possible the Astros could look for other alternatives on the trade market, though with rosters largely set for the coming season it’s unclear what players could still be available that would represent a substantial improvement for the club relative to their current situation.

Cardinals, Astros Again Discussing Nolan Arenado Trade

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4:03PM: While that Mozeliak initially declined to comment on any potential new trade talks or the possibility of Arenado approving a deal (as noted by Denton), he later told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that he “does not feel like anything is imminent” regarding Arenado and that nothing has changed since the veteran third baseman reported to camp.

1:16PM: Nolan Arenado used his no-trade clause to veto a proposed trade to the Astros back in December, which seemingly ended the third baseman’s chances of going to Houston once the Astros pivoted to then add Christian Walker to their infield mix.  However, just as it seemed the Cardinals’ chances of dealing Arenado this offseason had run out, St. Louis and Houston have re-engaged on a new set of talks on an Arenado trade, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, Mark Feinsand, and John Denton.

It would be quite a wild conclusion to one of the offseason’s top storylines if Arenado ended up in an Astros uniform after all, yet Houston’s increased willingness to move Jose Altuve from second base to left field may have created an opening for these fresh negotiations between the Astros and Cardinals.  Arenado would take over from Isaac Paredes at third base, with Paredes then moving to Altuve’s old spot at second base.  Reports of Altuve’s willingness to play left field emerged when the Astros were exploring the idea of re-signing Alex Bregman, and Altuve has been hard at work doing outfield drills in the early stages of Spring Training.

Astros manager Joe Espada has yet to make any firm statements about Altuve’s readiness as a left fielder, as Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) that it will still be another week before Altuve lines up in the outfield during spring game action.  Still, it could be a sign of the Astros’ comfort level in Altuve’s outfield capability that the team is again looking into the possibility of an Arenado deal.

The ball is ultimately in Arenado’s court due to his no-trade protection, yet Houston was one of the five teams that Arenado told the Cardinals front office he was open to joining.  The fact that Arenado rejected the earlier trade to Houston seems to have been just a matter of timing, as the offer apparently came just after the Astros dealt Kyle Tucker to the Cubs, and Arenado wanted a bit more time to evaluate the situation.  Rather than continue to wait out Arenado’s decision, the Astros instead went out and signed Walker to a three-year, $60MM deal, which seemed to reinforce Walker and Paredes as the team’s new corner infield combo.

Houston was willing to disrupt that new status quo if it meant re-signing its longtime third baseman in Bregman, however, and the same could be true here if the Astros and Cardinals can find common ground on a trade, and if Arenado this time green-lights the proceedings.  By the same measure, the Astros were willing to stretch their budget to accommodate Bregman’s return, and the same would have to be true if Arenado’s contract is acquired.  Arenado is owed $74MM over the next three seasons, though that number is really $60MM when factoring in deferrals and the $10MM covered by the Rockies as per the terms of the original trade that sent Arenado from Colorado to St. Louis in the 2020-21 offseason.

In the previous trade offer, the Astros would have taken on $40MM-$45MM of Arenado’s still-owed salary, with the Cards eating the rest.  It isn’t known if any type of significant prospects might have been included as well, but it could be that Houston was offering just a minimal player return since the Cardinals’ top priority was moving as much of Arenado’s salary as possible off the team’s books.  Speculatively speaking, the Astros could be looking to still land Arenado but with the Cardinals absorbing a larger portion of the salary, perhaps leveraging the fact that the Cards are short on alternative options if they want to move Arenado at all.

Trading Arenado and gaining this salary relief has been the chief goal of the St. Louis offseason, yet Arenado’s limited list of suitors left president of baseball operations John Mozeliak without much of a plan B after the Astros trade was nixed.  The Red Sox were another team on Arenado’s approval list, but their third base need was met when Boston signed Bregman.  As the Cards’ spring camp opened, both Mozeliak and Arenado indicated that a trade now seemed unlikely and Arenado was probably going to start the season in St. Louis, so these late talks with Houston could be a Hail Mary development for both teams.

Details On Nolan Arenado Trade Talks

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For much of the offseason, a Nolan Arenado trade seemed inevitable. But spring training is now rolling along and he’s still a Cardinal. Today, Katie Woo of The Athletic takes an extensive look at the twists and turns of the winter. Many of the details came out over the past few months but the piece also provides some new tidbits and extra context.

Arenado’s no-trade clause was clearly a key part of the offseason narrative and the club’s efforts to trade him. Reports throughout the winter suggested there was a narrow group of clubs he was willing to join, which Woo confirms in her overview. Arenado told president of baseball operations John Mozeliak that he was willing to waive his no-trade for five clubs: the Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Red Sox and Astros.

The first three clubs on that list never seemed especially interested. The Yankees were focused on Juan Soto at the start of the offseason. After missing out there, they pivoted to getting Max Fried, Devin Williams, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger. The Dodgers have Max Muncy at third and didn’t seem keen on a switch. The Padres have Manny Machado at the hot corner. Arenado was reportedly willing to move to a new position but the Friars have budgetary concerns that made a fit tough regardless.

It’s well known by now that the Astros were interested and seemed to have a deal lined up, but Arenado blocked it. Reporting has suggested that Arenado was open to going to Houston but was a bit concerned by the club trading Kyle Tucker and seemingly moving on from Alex Bregman. Woo’s reporting aligns with that framing, with Arenado wanting some time to think about the possibility of becoming an Astro. She writes that he was aware they might move on while he was taking some time to ponder the idea, which is what happened. They quickly signed Christian Walker to cover first base, which effectively locked Isaac Paredes into the third base spot.

That left the Red Sox as the best landing spot for Arenado, with Boston genuinely interested. However, they bolstered their infield by waiting out Bregman and signing him, taking them out of the running for Arenado.

Woo reports that other clubs checked in about Arenado’s availability, including the Royals, Tigers, Mariners and Angels. Those were all sensible on-paper landing spots. The Royals were looking to add a big bat to the lineup and could bump Maikel Garcia to a utility role. The Tigers were involved in the Bregman market, making him a six-figure offer, clearly indicating a willingness to add an established third baseman ahead of prospect Jace Jung. The infield had been a target for the Mariners this winter, who eventually added Donovan Solano and re-signed Jorge Polanco. The Angels were looking to add at third base with Anthony Rendon no longer reliable, eventually signing Yoán Moncada. However, none of those clubs made progress with the Cardinals, as they were informed that Arenado wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade protection for them.

All of that led to Mozeliak recently declaring that Arenado would stay a Cardinal, suggesting that he would have to change his team preferences in order for a deal to come together. That doesn’t seem likely to come to pass. Arenado has a two-year-old kid and is apparently only open to uprooting his family under very specific circumstances. It’s long been reported that Arenado is primarily motivated by winning but it appears that his off-field circumstances are also playing a notable role in his decision making. “I don’t see myself changing that list ever,” Arenado said. “I have a family now. … To be willing to pick up my family and move them, it has to be something that’s worth it.”

That’s his right as a player with a no-trade clause, though it leaves the Cardinals in an awkward spot. They are doing a reset, trying to turn the franchise away from upgrading the big league roster to a focus more on player development. It’s unclear how long it will take them to make a full-throated attempt at competing again. For now, Arenado is still on the team, which his contract running through 2027. He’ll be 36 years old in the final year of that pact.

It’s possible a trade could come together at the deadline or in another offseason, but it seems it would have to involve a change at one of Arenado’s preferred destinations. Muncy is in the final guaranteed year of his deal, so perhaps a move to the Dodgers for 2026 is possible, though they could keep Muncy around for ’26 via a $10MM club option. Goldschmidt is only on a one-year deal, so the Yankees might have more interest in an infield addition next winter. Bregman could opt out of his Boston deal, though they have a number of infield prospects likely to be coming up this year. Perhaps the Padres would have interest next winter after Luis Arráez, Dylan Cease and Michael King hit free agency, with Robert Suarez having the change to opt-out as well. A significant injury or two could always change the calculus somewhere.

“If something comes up and it makes sense, I’ll certainly get with him and we’ll talk about it,” Mozeliak said over the weekend. “But it’s not something where I’m getting up every morning and chasing the waiver wire or chasing injuries. I think from our fan perspective, from our team perspective, from our perspective, he is a part of the Cardinals.”

It’s an interesting end to an offseason where Mozeliak regarded an Arenado trade as a top priority. The Cards wanted to reduce payroll and open up some playing time for younger players. They could have dropped the payroll in other ways, such as by trading guys like Ryan Helsley or Erick Fedde, but haven’t shown much interest in doing that in the short term. Perhaps the Cardinals will end up being one of the most interesting clubs to watch when the July deadline rolls around, whether Arenado is likely to move or not.

MLBTR Podcast: Alex Bregman, The Padres Add Players, And No Extension For Vlad Jr.

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • The Twins had a quiet offseason but projection systems have them winning the division. Are they the best team in the AL Central? (38:25)
  • Why did the Giants have a quiet offseason apart from Willy Adames and Justin Verlander? Was it ownership reluctance or Buster Posey’s conservative stance? (42:25)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Nolan Arenado Discusses Trade Rumors

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Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado arrived in camp with the Cardinals today and spoke to the media, including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, about an offseason where his name was one of the most frequently mentioned in the rumor mill and what’s in store for him as he heads into Spring Training with a club that actively sought to trade him throughout the winter. Speaking to reporters, Arenado made clear that his sole focus at this point is preparing for the coming season.

“I’m back and I’m ready to go play ball,” Arenado said, as relayed by Goold. “I’m a ballplayer, and I’m a Cardinal, until I’m told I’m not. You know what I mean? And that’s all there is to it. And I’ve got a lot of work to do. I’ve got to be a better ball player, and that’s what I’m focused on.”

While Arenado’s comments did not completely close the door on a trade, it’s become apparent that the Cardinals expect him to be their starting third baseman on Opening Day at this point. Goold notes that there’s currently no momentum towards a deal, and both Arenado and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak seem reasonably comfortable with the idea of the veteran third baseman sticking in St. Louis to start the year. While Mozeliak acknowledged throughout the offseason that trading Arenado was his top priority, his tone regarding the situation has shifted since the Red Sox landed Alex Bregman earlier this week, killing a potential deal between the sides that would have sent Arenado to Boston.

With the Red Sox now off the table as a potential suitor, Mozeliak suggested to reporters (including Goold) that while the door isn’t entirely closed on the possibility of Arenado being moved, he’s no longer seeking out potential trade partners and will instead wait to hear from any teams that might have interest in the eight-time All-Star. That’s a sensible call given that Arenado doesn’t seem motivated to expand the list of teams he would consider a trade to. The veteran indicated to reporters that he’s “not likely” to consider new destinations at this point, adding that he’s not interested in moving his family just for the sake of leaving St. Louis and only wants to leave for a team that’s closer to contending for a championship.

There’s plenty of teams that could be argued as closer to championship-caliber than the Cardinals, but Arenado’s list of teams he would approve a trade to includes five clubs or less according to Goold. Exactly which clubs are included in that list is unclear. The Astros were once thought to be on the list, but Arenado blocked a trade to Houston in December due to concerns regarding the club’s competitive direction in the aftermath of the Kyle Tucker trade. The Red Sox, Padres, and Dodgers are all widely acknowledged as clubs Arenado would likely approve a trade to, while the Yankees, Angels, Phillies, and Mets are among the other teams that have been rumored as potential options Arenado could approve.

None of those teams appear especially likely to make a push for Arenado at this point. The Red Sox closed the hole in their infield by adding Bregman, while the Dodgers, Mets, and Phillies all also have no room for an addition to their infield mixes as presently constructed. The Padres could plausibly add another infielder, but with Manny Machado entrenched at third base Arenado would be an imperfect fit. San Diego also doesn’t appear to have the budget space necessary to add a player like Arenado to the payroll, and the same could be said of the Yankees until and unless they can move veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman. The Angels, meanwhile, are much further from contention than the other clubs Arenado is reportedly interested in joining and recently signed Yoan Moncada to supplant highly-paid but oft-injured veteran Anthony Rendon at third base.

Mozeliak: Nolan Arenado Likely To Be With Cardinals On Opening Day

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Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak spoke to members of the media today, including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, saying that trade candidate Nolan Arenado is likely staying put. “I think the mindset right now is he’s likely going to be a part of our club at this point,” Mozeliak said. “I definitely feel like it’s a better chance than not” that he is the club’s Opening Day third baseman.

Given the events of recent weeks, that’s not terribly surprising. It was reported about a month ago that the club’s efforts to move Arenado had largely stalled, with the Red Sox being the best remaining landing spot, but even that fit had some problems.

The Sox are making a big investment in their infield, agreeing to a deal last night with Alex Bregman. He’s reportedly going to play second base, so he doesn’t on his own block Arenado from playing third at Fenway. However, the fit was already awkward with Rafael Devers at third. Moving Devers to first and then trading Triston Casas or Masataka Yoshida were scenarios that were bandied about this winter but they always seemed somewhat of a difficult tightrope to walk.

Those scenarios are technically still possible to imagine in a vacuum but the larger team context makes it harder to see. Bregman’s deal is reportedly for $120MM over three years, a $40MM average annual value. Deferreals reportedly drop the net present value closer to $31.9MM annually but it’s still a huge chunk of the payroll. Arenado’s deal still has roughly three years and $60MM to be paid out, when factoring in deferrals and some money being picked up by the Rockies.

Boston making a huge investment in their infield just to create roster problems was already a bit tough but is even tougher now with Bregman’s contract on the books. Chris Cotillo of MassLive today estimates the odds of Boston still being in on Arenado at “about 0.0%.”

In the larger context of the Cardinals’ offseason, it’s a very surprising place for them to be. By late September of last year, before the 2024 campaign had even fully ended, reports had emerged that the Cardinals were planning a shift in direction. 2025 was to be a sort of reset year, with the club focusing less on short-term contention and more on long-term player development. As part of this shift, Mozeliak would spent the 2025 still in his POBO title while Chaim Bloom focused on overhauling the club’s player development system, but with Bloom to replace Mozeliak at season’s end.

At that point, there was plenty of speculation that the Cards would make players available if they were expensive or nearing free agency. Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Steven Matz, Erick Fedde, Ryan Helsley and others seemed likely to be available.

Now, several months later, they are all still on the roster. Contreras and Gray quickly signalled that they were unwilling to waive their no-trade clauses while the club surprisingly didn’t seem to have much interest in moving Fedde or Helsley.

Arenado was reportedly more willing than Gray or Contreras to consider waiving his no-trade protection, but that didn’t mean he would approve any deal. There was some reporting that Arenado had a list of six teams that he would approve a trade to, though there was also some pushback that such a firm list existed and that Arenado’s preferences were more context-dependent.

He vetoed a deal to the Astros in December but reportedly wasn’t wholly opposed to going to Houston. Rather, he had some hesitation about the club’s direction after trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. Rather than wait around and see if he would change his mind, the Astros took the less-complicated route of signing Christian Walker to play first base. That effectively locked Isaac Paredes, acquired in the Tucker deal, into third base and made an Arenado deal far less likely.

While Arenado may not have had an ironclad team list, it seems his parameters will have to widen for anything to get done now. “I think it would have to open up a little bit more,” Mozeliak said of Arenado’s list of acceptable teams, per Jones. “Think we’ve exhausted the others.”

Goold reported yesterday that Mozeliak had contacted five clubs that appeared to fit Arenado’s preferences, including the Yankees, Red Sox, Padres and Dodgers. The Astros were presumably the fifth. Goold added that the Yankees wanted the Cards to eat more of Arenado’s contract than they were willing to do. The Dodgers have Max Muncy at third and never seemed particularly interested in making a change there. The Padres are working under significant financial constraints. The Sox are now out after adding Bregman.

Perhaps Arenado will change his mind and consider other options, given the circumstances. His priority appears to be winning and that seems unlikely in St. Louis this year with their reset plans. Reportedly, the Royals reached out to the Cardinals this winter but were turned away since the Cards didn’t think Arenado was willing to go there. Teams like the Tigers and Blue Jays reportedly pursued Bregman and might have some willingness to pivot to Arenado, though Arenado might not be willing to play for those clubs.

If Arenado does end up staying, it will leave the Cards with some playing time puzzles to figure out. Their thinking with an Arenado trade was to save some money but also to give more playing time to guys with uncertain futures. Nolan Gorman was going to get regular run at third base as he looks to bounce back from a tough season in 2024. With Arenado still around, he could get pushed back to second base. That could block Thomas Saggese and/or nudge Brendan Donovan into a utility role where he spends more time in the outfield, perhaps taking playing time from guys like Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II and others.

Perhaps there are some twists and turns up ahead but it’s been a very surprising winter for the Cardinals thus far, as an offseason that once likely to involve significant changes has resulted in very few. They haven’t yet signed a free agent to a major league deal and their only trade has been to acquire depth infielder Michael Helman from the Twins.

MLBTR Podcast: Pete Alonso’s Deal, And Potential Landing Spots For Bregman and Arenado

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • Pete Alonso re-signing with the Mets (1:45)
  • What’s next for the Blue Jays after not getting Alonso? (9:25)
  • Will the Mets and Alonso going to reunite again in the future or will this be it? (12:55)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What teams could still sign Alex Bregman? (17:50)
  • Can the Cardinals trade Nolan Arenado to the Red Sox? (29:20)
  • Do the Orioles need an ace? (37:55)
  • What are the Marlins building right now? (39:30)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Cardinals, Red Sox Have Reportedly Had “Recent Communication” On Arenado

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The Nolan Arenado trade speculation has quieted in recent weeks. After the eight-time All-Star used his no-trade clause to quash a deal that would have sent him to Houston, the Cardinals have been unable to find a suitable match. St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said at last month’s Winter Warm-Up event that the Arenado saga remained the front office’s top priority. However, both Mozeliak and chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. stressed that dealing the third baseman was not an absolute necessity to get the team’s payroll to levels that ownership finds tolerable.

It’s now an open question whether the Cards will be able to line anything up. In an MLBTR poll last week, nearly two-thirds of respondents felt Arenado would begin the season in St. Louis. That won’t stop Mozeliak and the front office from continuing to explore possibilities. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reports that the Cards have “had recent communication” with the Red Sox regarding Arenado.

That doesn’t necessarily mean talks have gained any kind of traction. Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote in early January that efforts to move Arenado had stalled. Woo suggested at the time that Boston might up end being the only plausible suitor for an offseason trade. Those discussions have perhaps been held up by Alex Bregman’s lengthy free agent stay. Boston is one of a few teams known to be involved on Bregman, though they’re reportedly reluctant to go beyond four guaranteed years. Bregman has seemingly weighed multiple six-year offers, so the Sox appear an unlikely landing spot.

Arenado would be a more challenging roster fit. The Sox’s pursuit of Bregman was likely conditioned on the possibility of moving him to second base. Arenado has expressed openness to a position change to facilitate the right trade, but his third base defense is his primary selling point. It’s unlikely the Red Sox would consider bumping him to the keystone. They’d presumably instead move Rafael Devers off third base. Boston’s longtime third baseman doesn’t appear enthused about a possible position change.

A move would also probably require the Red Sox to bench or trade Masataka Yoshida. The Sox have not moved first baseman Triston Casas for starting pitching, as many speculated they might. Devers would be a superior designated hitter to Yoshida, though Boston may not be keen on relegating him to the bench when he’s under contract for another three seasons. Yoshida is owed $18MM annually on a deal that is well above market value. They’d need to eat the bulk of the contract to deal him for what would be a modest return.

Discussions between the Sox and Cardinals could theoretically involve Yoshida. Chaim Bloom, who will take over as president of baseball operations in St. Louis at the end of the season, was the top executive when the Red Sox signed Yoshida. At one point, Bloom believed strongly that his bat would translate against MLB pitching. Yoshida has been a good, not great, major league hitter. Even if Bloom still feels there’s untapped upside, the Cardinals are unlikely to eat a big portion of the contract. Their efforts to trade Arenado have been largely motivated by finances, recent comments from Mozeliak and DeWitt notwithstanding.

St. Louis owes Arenado $64MM over the next three seasons: $27MM this year, $22MM in 2026, and $15MM in ’27. The Rockies are paying an additional $5MM annually for the next two years. $6MM of the Cards’ obligations in 2025 and ’26 are deferred. Reports indicated the Astros were going to take all but $5MM or $15MM off the Cardinals’ hands had he approved the trade to Houston.

Poll: Will The Cardinals Be Able To Trade Nolan Arenado?

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One of the biggest storylines of the offseason has been the Cardinals’ to this point unsuccessful attempts at moving veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado. As the club scales back its payroll and focuses on youth, both the Cardinals and Arenado himself have expressed a desire to move on this winter. In theory, moving an eight-time All-Star who’s just two seasons removed from being an MVP finalist should not be an especially difficult task, but a confluence of factors has made things very complicated for St. Louis’s front office.

The most obvious limiting factor at play is Arenado’s hefty contract. The infielder is due $74MM over the next three seasons, and even with the Rockies poised to pitch in $10MM as a condition of the trade that sent him to St. Louis in the first place, it’s hard to imagine a number of smaller or even mid-market clubs being able to stomach the majority of that salary. Even for clubs who can afford to pay Arenado, it would be understandable if there was some level of pause about committing that much money to a hitter coming off a .272/.325/.394 slash line that was essentially league average (102 wRC+). Arenado’s glove is still enough to make him a roughly three-win player even with his diminished offensive numbers but the division rival Cubs’ difficulties in finding a trade partner when looking to move Cody Bellinger this winter show how depressed the market can become for a three-win player who’s making more than they would fetch on the open market.

Things are further complicated by Arenado’s no-trade clause, which he’s appeared to be very comfortable wielding in order to direct the Cardinals’ negotiation efforts towards clubs he wants to join. Arenado blocked a trade to the Astros in mid-December despite previous belief that he would approve a trade to Houston, in large part because he wanted to see how the club would fortify the roster after trading away Kyle Tucker. That decision to wait and see what was next for Houston backfired, as they pivoted towards signing Christian Walker in a move that likely closed the door on Arenado joining the Astros.

Since the deal with the Astros fell through, the market for Arenado’s services has been exceptionally quiet, with the Cardinals beginning to entertain the possibility that Arenado might be in camp for the start of Spring Training or even still be in the club’s starting lineup on Opening Day. The Yankees reportedly tried to convince the Cardinals to do a swap that would’ve sent Arenado to the Bronx and right-hander Marcus Stroman to the St. Louis, but the Cardinals dismissed that offer without even presenting it to Arenado due to a lack of interest in adding Stroman to the fold. It’s hardly a surprise that they wouldn’t want to take on Stroman and is $18.5MM salary for 2025, but that decision only serves to highlight the financial difficulties the Cardinals face in attempting to move their third baseman.

Even as a trade of Arenado has become less likely as the calendar has flipped to 2025, there are at least some reasons for optimism. Arenado has reportedly become more open-minded about what clubs he would approve a trade to in recent weeks, which could theoretically inspire renewed efforts from clubs like the Mariners, Royals, and Tigers who have some level of interest in him but initially believed that Arenado would block any trade they worked out with the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have indicated that they wouldn’t necessarily need to cut payroll elsewhere if Arenado remains with the club in 2025. It’s at least theoretically possible that’s simply a negotiation tactic, but if the Cardinals are truly not operating under a mandate to cut payroll to a specific level, then perhaps they’ll be more willing to chip in cash to help pay down Arenado’s salary or accept another underwater contract as part of the return.

One obvious catalyst that could spur Arenado talks back to the forefront of the hot stove would be Alex Bregman finding a new home in free agency. Bregman entered the winter ranked as the #3 free agent overall and the top available infielder according to MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, but he’s found a relatively quiet market to his point in the winter. The Red Sox, Tigers, Astros, Blue Jays, and Cubs are all known to be involved in Bregman’s market to this point on at least some level. While trading Arenado to a division rival like the Cubs is nearly impossible to imagine, the Astros have already moved on, and Toronto may not be competitive enough to satisfy the veteran. The interest is mutual in at least the case of the Red Sox, who currently figure to start Arenado’s longtime Rockies teammate Trevor Story at shortstop on a regular basis this year. If Bregman were to come to a decision, and especially one that saw him end up in Houston, Chicago, or Toronto, it’s easy to imagine Arenado’s market picking up more significantly.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out? Will Arenado be in another uniform before Opening Day? And if so, will a deal get done before he’s scheduled to report to the Cardinals for Spring Training on February 17? Have your say in the poll below:

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