Nolan Arenado’s days as the face of the Rockies franchise will continue beyond the 2019 season. Arenado, who had been slated to reach free agency next winter, has instead inked an eight-year contract extension that adds seven years and $234MM in new commitments. The Wasserman client’s new contract reportedly contains an opt-out clause after the third season in 2021, which would allow him to become a free agent in advance of his age-31 campaign, as well as full no-trade protection.
The newly agreed upon contract will leave in place the one-year, $26MM contract to which Arenado had already agreed for 2019. He takes down $35MM annually over the next five seasons before receiving $32MM and $27MM salaries in the final two years.
Arenado is promised $260MM in total money over an eight-year term. Whether calculated cumulatively ($32.5MM annually) or in reference only to the seven new seasons ($33.4MM), the new contract establishes a new record annual salary for position players, topping Miguel Cabrera’s prior mark of $31MM. In terms of overall average annual salary (AAV), Arenado’s contract trails only Zack Greinke’s $34.4MM mark for the largest in MLB history. It’s the fourth-largest deal ever in terms of total guarantee, trailing only Giancarlo Stanton (13 years, $325MM), Manny Machado (10 years, $300MM) and Alex Rodriguez (10 years, $275MM).
Arenado, 28 in April, has won a Gold Glove in all six of his Major League seasons to date, pairing that hardware with Silver Sluggers in each of the past four seasons. He’s made four consecutive All-Star teams and finished in the top five of National League voting in three straight seasons. Over the past four years, Arenado has led the National League in home runs on three occasions and posted a combined .297/.358/.573 batting line with 158 homers, 159 doubles and 19 triples.
Detractors point to Arenado’s home/road splits in suggesting that his value is inflated by Coors Field, and while it’s surely true that he benefits from that hitter-friendly setting, he’s also slashed a robust .267/.329/.502 on the road over the past four years (with many of those games coming in pitchers’ parks in San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles). And park-neutral metrics like OPS+ (129) and wRC+ (127) feel that even after adjusting for his home park advantages, Arenado’s bat has been 27 to 29 percent better than that of a league-average hitter since 2015. By measure of wRC+, he’s among the game’s 35 best hitters in that four-year span and, when combined with his premier defense at the hot corner, he ranks inside the top 10 in overall wins above replacement among position players, per Fangraphs.
In all, there’s little denying Arenado’s place among the game’s legitimate superstars, and he carries perhaps more value to the Rockies than he would with any other organization given his existing connection with the fan base and within the Denver community. He’s nearly two years older than the current offseason’s two star free-agent bats, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, so it’s not a surprise to see Arenado heading for a slightly shorter-term deal than either of his highly touted peers. But in terms of annual rate, the new contract already tops Machado’s annual salary and could potentially be higher than the AAV to which Harper will eventually agree.
Arenado is the second would-be 2019-20 free agent to take an extension rather than test an open market that has become increasingly slow for top-end talent. (Aaron Hicks signed a seven-year deal with the Yankees yesterday.) Had he hit the open market, it stands to reason that deep-pocketed teams like the Dodgers and particularly the Yankees would’ve made a push to land his services, but the presumptive top free agent on next year’s market will instead take his record-setting payday a year early in order to remain with the only organization he’s ever known.
For the Rockies, the new contract means that Arenado will play out at least the next three seasons alongside Trevor Story, cementing one of the game’s most productive left-side infield tandems for the foreseeable future. That duo’s presence likely means that uber-prospect Brendan Rodgers is ticketed for second base when he eventually does force his way up to the big league level. Should his future outlook stall for any reason, the Rox have plenty of other infield talent on the rise, most notably including Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson. Beyond that grouping, veteran Daniel Murphy signed a two-year contract to play first base this winter and will be entrenched in the heart of what should be a formidable batting order.
From a payroll vantage point, the Arenado contract will further push the Rox into franchise-record territory. The $137MM mark at which they opened the 2018 season was already an all-time high for the team, but Arenado’s new deal — depending on how the dollars are distributed — will likely bring Colorado’s Opening Day payroll beyond $155MM (as outlined by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). In terms of luxury taxation, the Rockies are still nearly $40MM shy of having anything to worry about in 2019, and their luxury tax ledger plummets to just north of $129MM next winter, which would place them nearly $80MM shy of incurring any penalties.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported that the Rockies had made a record-AAV offer to Arenado and added he annual breakdown on Twitter. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the two sides were closing in on an eight-year deal worth more than $255MM with an opt-out (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the exact salary terms, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the agreement to be in place (Twitter links).
And he deserves every dollar of it. Probably the leagues most underrated supserstad
Underrated? He’s universally known as the best defensive third baseman in the game. If anything, his home/road splits might suggest that he’s overrated offensively outside of Coors
That’s pretty accurate, home/road splits are very much different from one another
Yeah, MLB Network has him ranked 3rd best overall player entering this season.
If someone told me that arenado was a league average player outside Coors I’d look at them crazy…. Wow I’m astounded looking at the numbers. Obviously he’s got “potential” for power and power numbers, but that’s blowing my mind as a Giants fan that he’s broken the heart of many, many times
I think not many out of the NL West see this guy enough to value his well. I am not sure if his defensive numbers support my perception but every time I see him play the Dbacks he has some great catches. Unfortunately we will see it for many more years in the NL West.
true, he is not on the yankees, so therefore he he overrated
*he is
what does this have to do with the yankees? are you THAT obsessed with them?
What is we signed him? Not that I want him I’d rather sign Sale
>> “true, he is not on the yankees, so therefore he he overrated”
… only until he IS a Yankee.
— Officially Obsessed to Death with All Things New York (AKA: No other city on the planet even exists)
2018 was Arenado’s worst road-hitting season since 2014, and he still was about 14% better than the league average hitter was on the road. I feel like his road splits get overstated because playing his home games in Colorado makes the split seem more dramatic than it really is.
Source: baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=arena…
Note that his Away split’s “sOPS+”, which measures performance in a split category compared to league average, for 2018 is at 114.
2015 – 2017 that number was 132, 128, 140, so he’s been between 14 and 40% better than league average on the road for several years.
Great points. On the road his bat is still well above board and his glove travels everywhere.
Yep … always look at the OPS+ with park adjustments.
Rockies as a team have the most dramatic home/road wRC+ (park adjusted) split in the league by a considerable margin. All teams have a better wRC+ at home with the exception of the Mets (lol the Mets), but Rockies at 10+ points from anyone else (over multiple years). Commonly referred to as the Coors Hangover.
And when one considers that the majority of his away games are in the NL West where San Francisco, LA, and San Diego are pitchers’ parks,the splits are even more understandable.
Exactly why this extension is a smart move on his part. Based upon his home/away splits, his age had he entered into FA, and the current trends in FA, how many teams do we think we’d see lining up for his services on a contract such as this? There would certainly have been the potential to see his FA drag out well into February as MM and BH’s have. Certainly he has the defensive value and does not come with the “baggage” that MM has with his not-so Johnny Hustle attitude, so teams may have been less hesitant as some were with MM, but no guarantee he’d get the same contract as this extension in FA. Smart move by COL as well; takes him through his age 35 season and not into his 40s as contracts for Miggy, A-Rod or Pujols have.
Well he doesn’t want to be Harper Whose still out there or worse Kimbrel who nobody wants. He wants to live in Denver for a while, Manne the rest of his career/life
Teams want Kimbrel..they just don’t want him at the proposed numbers..he’ll sign, but at fewer years and a wee bit less money
Those park adjusted numbers tend to underrate Rockies hitters. They get the full downgrade for their home numbers, but also are given the same park adjustment as all other hitters in parks when they’re on the road. That doesn’t account for the evidence that Rockies hitters are uniquely disadvantaged on the road after spending their home games facing pitches that don’t break as much as they do everywhere else.
One year when the padres played the Rockies. The padres color man broke down the splits for that year. His Xbh to include homeruns were identical but his batting average was about 20 points lower on the road
This was at the end of the year.
What do those splits matter when he’s staying in Colorado, anyway?
You should check out some other players’ home/road splits, before declaring that.
Machado’s home/road splits for instance are far more dramatic than Arenado’s.
….because, turns out, most players hit worse on the road because baseball is hard, and it gets a lot harder when you have to travel or try and sleep in a strange bed before the game.
And it’s a double whammy: on the road you’re tired and uncomfortable facing a facing rested, confident pitchers and defenders, at home you”re rested and confident facing people who aren’t at their best.
that’s completely untrue. Arenado’s OPS was 200 points different home vs road. Manny’s was about a 117 differential.
Overrated and underrated are way to subjective. None of us should use those and mean it, because none of know the opinions of every baseball fan, or even most of them, nor have the knowledge to make an assessment of it. I suppose one could argue that he would be more-praised if he played in New York, Boston, LA, or even SanFran, especially considering those teams have many more fans outside the US than Colorado ever will. If the debate is about his overall rank among the best ball players, splits matter. But the Colorado FO, why would they care? If his away splits are really that bad, that means he absolutely mashes in a place he plays half of all games. The FO is interested in the cumulative workload of 162 games, and for this player, it is undeniably on par with the other “superstars”.
Maybe at one time. Matt Chapman now holds that title.
Though the splits are not too impressive, they do mention the vistors parks he regularly plays in are a little to blame. I bet if ypu take away those thtee they mentioned and his splits are a lottle more even.
I think what acarneglia means, is that he isn’t the standout guy who receives a lot of media attention like a Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. Yes his splits or a bit different but even with the “average” splits he’s an above average player. Colorado is making a good move her to kick this guy up for the foreseeable future considering they have contended each of the last two years. If they go off the rails in then next two years he can opt for free agency.
No, you’re confusing him with Joe Blanton
I’d argue he might be one of the most overrated ones.
Almost every player in baseball has worse road numbers than at home. Aaron judge is flat out terrible. In more at bats on the road is batting average is 94 points lower. His slugging is 253 points lower and has almost double the amount of home runs at home. Nobody talks about that. If anything it is harder to play all your home games at Coors. The toll that altitude has on the body along with seeing the way a ball breaks at altitude then going on the road and trying to hit something totally different. Coors field effect is greatly misunderstood.
Even so, MLB network just ranked him as the third best player in the league. That’s a definite no from me.
OK … this is $35M per year.
So, the Boras ask for Bryce Harper now has to be at least $350M for those 10 years, if not more, amirite?
$32.5M per year.
Arenado > Harper.
Yes, Padres458. I totally agree.
I’m surprised more players aren’t jumping to the Wasserman Group. Both this extension and the Stanton ones were record setting deals. The players weren’t dragged through the media for months and months. These extensions will likely become more prevalent as FA is so unpredictable these days.
Math is very difficult for some people. Don’t feel bad.
Underrated? His road numbers are a tick above ordinary and MLB network ranked him the 3rd best player in baseball.
Not really sure how he’s underrated.
I’d say he’s perfectly rated, among the top-10 position players in the game (although in the 5-10 range instead of the 1-5).
Do it!
Hopefully it works out
Wow! Good for him!
sign that deal.
Don’t do it Nolan, Sign with Texas next year and be the face of the franchise for years to come, while playing in the new Stadium.
And then get traded to New York when they realize that it has crippled the team and they have no chance to put a winning team on the field? I feel like this has all happened before…
I hope the Battlestar Gallactica reference was intended?
“All this has happened before, and all this will happen again”
If it was … outstanding
if it was not … outstanding
Nick’s comment didn’t age well.
yeah, Nolan should take the money here, he’s not getting Machado money because he will be nearly three years older than Manny is when he is a free agent.
Is this not machado money?? He’s making more money annually than machado…
This is indeed “Machado” money, in fact more per year than Manny it’s just 2 less years.
Bryce Harper says “ wait….what?”
Ted Lerner just said “wait…what?”
Haha I thought the same thing. As soon as he saw this, he called Boras “what. The.???”
Usually these sorts of deals aren’t great for the player but this would seem to be an exception. On the open market the Coors Field/ home-road splits would have more traction, but staying in Colorado removes that from any equation. Obviously he’s an elite defensive player and, as long as he’s playing half his games in Coors, an elite bat, especially for the position. He would almost ensure that he would be the first Rockie elected to the HoF by taking the deal.
…….and how did those salaries work out?
Asking for a friend.
Great player. Home/road split is insanely different. Coors Field treats him well
Nolan deserves highest AAV much more than Bryce or Manny IMO.
Agreed.
lock him up!
as a giants fan, if he doesn’t come here i hope he stays in co, the guy’s defense alone is awesome to watch and id rather keep him in the nl west where we get to see him regularly
As a keeper on my fantasy team …leave the Giants out of it!
🙂
if im Arenado i take this deal. unless he hates it up in colorado and is itching to get out $35MM a year is pretty nice.
ended up being $32.5MM a year, still $32.5MM more than me lol so its pretty good i would say
You get paid nothing?
Don’t let Boras find out. He’s gonna want $36MM per for his golden boy now.
Dude is not worth that now, and will definitely not be worth it when he’s 34.
OMG! All this may just reset the bar for Bryce Harper and Scott Boras.
No, they are comparable offensively, Nolan is DEFINITELY SUPERIOR defensively.
If it does, it will set it lower, as NA is far superior to BH. Phillies should adjust their offer lower to keep things proportionate. This is how much someone who has done it consistantly gets paid. BH, not so much.
Disregarding the splits, (ie just looking at numbers alone) i think Arenado is easily better and more valuable then Harper and Machado, and perhaps up there with Betts and Trout. (the only reason i put trout arround the same level is injury reasons)
Even if trout gets hurt some he is still far better than arenado. You can’t deny the fact that he’s clearly on a different level than anyone else in the game right now and his injuries doesn’t change that
Trout is the best to ever play this game
Willie Mays, Griffey Jr., pre-‘roids Barry Bonds, Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams, and maybe even Rickey Henderson would like a word
How about, the best low ball hitter ever?
In an age where the pitchers go to, “pitchers pitch” is that low outside corner, he smashes that ball.
Interesting list. I’d put Trout up there with Mays and Aaron, who you left off the list. Mantle is probably the closest comp; it’s a shame to imagine what Mantle’s career would have been like if he didn’t have such a problem with alcohol. Bonds was a left fielder, of course, and it’s so hard to know what his career might have been like without the PEDs. Williams may have been the best hitter of all time but he was an indifferent fielder and baserunner. Rickey is my faborite player of all time but I don’t think he’s on Trout’s level; he’s also just a really different kind of player.
By JAWS, Jay Jaffe’s Hall of Fame monitor that incorporates a player’s entire output using lots of different numbers, Trout is already the 7th best center fielder of all-time. behind Mays, Cobb, Speaker, Mantle, Griffey and Dimaggio. That’s after just seven full seasons. I’d remove Cobb and Speaker from the equation because they played in the segregation era, and Dimaggio’s career was just so short that Trout will easily pass him, perhaps as soon as this year. I can see Trout passing all these guys (except Mays) in the next three years if he continues to play at this level.
Another thing about Trout is that he’s shown a remarkable ability to make adjustments – when it looked like his defense was slipping, he came back the next year determined to improve and had his best defensive season. Same with his walks and strikeouts, same with his stolen bases….we’re lucky to be able to watch a player this good.
Guess this delays harpers signing. Hes gotta try to get 35.1 a year now.
Good for him. Exactly where he belongs and earned every penny
Nice Deal. Likeable player. Stealing Bryce “Dig Me” Harper’s thunder. Bravo.
Quick!!! Deploy the nets under the Brooklyn bridge!
i don’t understand the relevance, but great nevertheless
Referring to the Yankee fans who were certain that Arenado would be signed to play 3b there. Lol
Go to free agency. It’s always good to great players.
If he’s smart, he’ll test the free agent market.
I cant see him getting more than 8/260 in the current environment.
Good for him and the Rockies to strike this deal.
Bet more teams wished they were in on Machado now.
Yes and the White Sox really mucked up.
8yrs 255 million? Damn, sign that right now Nolan. Wonder if this hinders Harper making a decision…
Jon Heyman just reported that this deal just screwed the Phillies and Bryce Harper will takt the Dodgers deal at 40 million a year for 5 years.
Jon heyman doesn’t know anything about this stuff. He just reports as fast as possible with no fact checking whatsoever. Rosenthal is much better at understanding that he needs some facts first
I know it was a joke there is no report.
If Heyman were reporting it the offer would be $300 million for 5 years
Looks like Anthony Rendon and Boras just found a new comparable….there goes that extension in DC.
Nah. Rendon is no Arenado.
I would say Rendon is what Arenado would be out of Colorado.
Say what you want but Rendon is not Arrenado. Arrenado can throw.
Surprised the Rockies would pay that kind of money; not in their history. Yet, seems like a good deal both ways. If he wants to stay in Colorado, take the deal and be done with it. $35 mil per year; not bad! He’s an amazing defensive third baseman, in addition to a big bat for average. Plus, he’s not a hot dog, he’s not dirty and he hustles 100% of the time. Great guy to have as the face of your franchise for the next 7 years.
His only choice was to stay in colorado. Although his road splits in comparison to the average player is still excellent, his OPS comparison to ELITE players who played their 81 home games in SD, LA or SF over the last 20 years and road games in the other 2 parks, Arenado does not stack up with his .831 road OPS.
Us Dodgers fans really thought we were getting this guy next year. Well deserved contract though, good for him, nice pay day for him and he clearly deserves it.
Red is still on contract for a couple more years. Would’ve been a great pickup though.
Why do Yankee & Dodger fans always assume they’re getting every team’s best player soon?
Slightly off topic, but with Rendon discussing an extension with Washington, Arenado extension and at that much money makes the Machado deal look like that much better of a decision for San Diego. Eyes were on both of those guys for all teams and it looks like they may very well stay put.
Thank you.
– Bryce Harper
Thank you? I imagine it was more… “JFC…. I’ll never break 300 now.”
You know he’s going to use it for positioning in his negotiations. Colorado is a hitters park, etc.
Probably something more like: “cheese & crackers, got all muddy!”
Dodger fans: “cANt wAIt tO GeT NoLAn IN fReE AgeNCy”
Arenado hits .263 away from Coors. The Dodgers will be fine.
Its just funny how dodger fans think everyone is going to sign there. According to most dodger fans, they are getting trout, arenado and harper.
No one says that lol.
What kind of Dodger fans is this guy talking to? This front office doesn’t like superstars unless they’re homegrown. We’ll be fine.
Just like Yankee fans! Delusional and full of themselves lol
BREAKING: Bryce Harper and Scott Boras have asked all teams for a “reset” and want new offers that exceed a $35M average annual value, in addition to 10 years. Bryce expects to sign by the All Star Break.
Great. That means nobody will lose draft picks or international money.. more teams would jump in after the draft
I know ATL would be more interested not having to lose a 2nd rd pick – they don’t care about the international money with their penalties.
Arenado getting QB money. Good for him and the Rockies.
Pretty overated player. Away splits depict a .263 .313 obp player with about 15-20 homerun average. If im colorado he needs you more than you need him. I think 180 million could have got it done honestly.
only overrated when he doesnt choose free agency so the dodgers have a chance at him? Bet you dodger fans would cream your panties if he went to LA.
@brewcrew1302 Turner is better than arenado and now much cheaper….still salty about the nlcs?
Justin Turner has played 150 games in a season ONCE in his career. Nolan has played 155 the past four seasons and is 6 years younger. JT is fantastic and a star, but Arenado is a superstar.
Offering an alternative take, Justin Turner is not better than Arenado. But is now a better value than Arenado.
How can you say he could only hit only 15-20 home runs on a different team when he’s had at least 15 road home runs on the road each season since 2015. 30-35 HR guy is more accurate.
I think he was saying that he only hits 15-20 HR’s away from Coors….
Well he didn’t specify the home run totals on the Road or the entire season. 15-20 road home runs isn’t bad btw, That would estimate he would hit about 30-35 home runs for the entire season.
.263 and obp .313 would average 25-30 on any other team not that great. If he wants to be in hall of fame it makes sense to resign especially based on his splits for that silly money.
Batting average and OBP has very little to do with home runs. Just look at Khris Davis. He has had 42+ home runs the last 3 seasons with a .247 AVG each year.
If he hits 15-20 home runs on the road, then he would probably hit around 30-35 home runs in the entire season if he played for a different team than the Rockies.
Almost everyone hits worse on the road. You can’t take his road stats as a Rockies player and assume that that is how he would hit in general if his home ballpark was different.
Pretty jealous commenter.
I’ve seen this before and it doesn’t end well: troy tulowitzki.
Tulo is a completely different case. Injuries derailed his career.
I can’t think of many long-term contracts with the Rockies that have faired well – Larry Walker got a 6-year extension that only had one good year on it. Then there’s Troy, Darryl Kile, Denny Neagle, Mike Hampton, Ian Desmond… I’m sure there had to be a couple though. I don’t think signing anyone to a $35 million contract for their mid-30s play is worth it, though. It reminds me too much of Pujols and Cabrera. At least they’ll be done with it by the time he’s 35.
Todd Helton?
Good one. Maybe… I’m looking at his stats and the last eight years of his career he didn’t break 20 homers or 100 RBIs. Slugging fell off a cliff but he could still put the bat on the ball.
Not sure what’s more crazy. The Rockies giving this big an extension or Bob Nightengale getting a story right.
I hope Harpers deal falls short of Arenados just to be able to hear see Boras squirm
Rendon of the Nationals will be next to sign a extension.
Wow, thought there was no way he wanted to stay, especially after his “I want a chance to win every year” comments.
The comment “I want to gross $3M per month” sounds better.
Good move for the Rockies, I like seeing players staying with the same team.. such a rarity nowadays.
Good move as long as it doesn’t hamper them from other moves?
Great news for every MLB fan. Now we will not hear the where is he going or why owners do not want to sign him. After the harper/manny drama its good to see a player not want the over drama of free agency.
Machado now looks like a bargain in SD…
How ? His road splits were very similar to Arenado’s
Road AVG, HR. OPS
Machado .271, 69, .761
Arenado .263, 78, .787
Exile you are banging your head against the wall These people don’t look at facts they just comment without thinking. Oriole Park is rated the seventh most friendly park so its not like Machado put up his numbers in a bad venue to hit. Also consider Machados away parks where he put up those numbers were primarily Boston NY and Toronto 3 of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball Toronto fourth Boston sixth NY tenth
His home/away splits suggest Arenado fleeced the Rockies. Great deal for Nolan. One that the Rockies will regret.
How can you say that when Machado just got a 10 year $300 million contract ?
Because I took a look at his statistics?
And you do realize the career road statistics are very similar ?
Road AVG, HR. OPS
Machado .271, 69, .761
Arenado .263, 78, .787
I never stated Machado’s contract was going to be regrettable for the Padres. I do believe it will be. However, I think Arenado’s contract will also be regrettable for the Rockies. One player at a time dude.
Look at Machados HR in NL ballparks… 19 in 506 PAs, that’s basically 24-25 projected out for a full season. Both teams will likely regret a couple years of each player tho at the end of these deals. Always is the case.
Cleveland, take note.
good for arenado. Now harper/boras will persist on being the highest paid player. But the one who should be, Trout, hasn’t done the 2nd extension or free agency. So the waiting for harper to sign will continue. At least Ohtani was signed by now.
YES!!!!!
The Rockies are between a rock and a hard place here. He’s the face of their franchise but he vastly underperforms away from Coors. They really have to sign him but I’m guessing this contract might become an albatross later. As long as he stays healthy and continues to mash at Coors they’ll be fine, else……
Vastly underperform is a significant exaggeration. The majority of players perform much better at home than on the road simply due to comfortability. Nolan receives the benefit of the massive Coors Field outfield, but it’s rarely brought up the effect of major altitude changes on a player’s stats when going on the road after a home stand.
Home/road splits are the most overused and misunderstood stats around, especially for Rockies hitters. Everyone just assumes that all road stats are equalized, but that is completely untrue. If you believe Coors inflates stats more than any other stadium, every player in the game gets to use their Coors stats to boost their road averages. Every player EXCEPT Rockies players that is. In fact, Coors stats make up over 10% of the road averages for the other 4 NL West teams. Meanwhile about a third of the Rockies road stats is comprised of LA, SF, and SD, three of the most pitcher friendly parks around.
He wins Gold Gloves every year, at Coors and away from there as well.
There’s been a lot of complaints about teams not spending on FA, but I see a lot of extensions going on. Great move for Colorado obviously.
There’s a Reds house over yonder …
blogs.denverpost.com/rockies/2015/11/16/nolan-aren…
FAs take note.
He dumped Borass and still got paid. Others should take note.
Seems like a big overpay, but I guess it has to be since it’s the Rockies.
This is a great deal for both sides here. The Rockies get the best player in their history for at least 3 more years and Arenado is guaranteed financial security til the end of time and monetary recognition as a top 5 position player in baseball. Say what you want about home/road splits but that doesn’t apply to the Rockies here who know exactly what Nolan brings to the table on both sides of the ball along with other intangibles like competitiveness and leadership.
Dont sell yourself short Todd
My hunch is that the Rockies are going to love this deal and San Diego is going to hate the deals they gave Machado and Hosmer. They’ll be trying to deal those guys to NY within 2 years and meanwhile, Aranado will just keep producing in Denver. Just my 2 cents.
I’m a Rockies fan and admittedly a bit of a Machado hater, but barring any injuries I can’t see him not living up to his contract for the majority of it’s length. The Hosmer deal is another, much sadder story though…
Hosmer now has some hitters around him. Things will change
SD paid for 3 extra years of Machado. Their contracts end at roughly the same age. Both are premium defenders and hitters. The advantage is Coors field. What’s the expectation? Neither move makes the teams WS favorites. Both 40-55/1
what a joke statement
Yeah one player makes a team a ws contender. Get out of here with that lame crap!
Both signings are great for the teams. These players will be important pieces in future championship teams. Name one player that makes a team an instant ws contender? The best player on the planet hasn’t won a single playoff game in his entire career!
I asked what the expectation was. Didnt doesnt do much for the Vegas Odds. The original post was saying Rockies will love and Padres will hate their deals. So what is the premise for loving the deal? Is it ticket sales, playoffs, WS? Rockies stay the same with their deal, SD is the only one that actually improved based on their deal w Machado. But at the end of the day if neither wins a WS who actually Loves the deal their team made? Are you happy with the deal if SD doesnt even make the playoffs? A Rod Rangers years kinda happy?
I’m very happy the Padres signed the top available free agent for their biggest need
Wasn’t that long ago that people bemoaned losing talent, all the good players always leave… that sentiment is still everywhere. Now we sign a guy for 10 years, likely making the Padres his final stop, and we are going to be upset?
Some people just refuse to be happy
ZA, you make a good point about SD Adding and Colorado merely “staying the same.” I guess my thought was that for what each team has decided to pay these guys, Colorado will be happier in the end. Machado just seems like the kind of guy that will not live up to his deal, where Aranado seems to me like a guy that will keep working. That is the point I was trying to make. Also, I never thought the Hosmer deal was a good one. I’m a Royals fan since day 1 and when he signed that deal with SD, I was relieved that the Royals didn’t commit that kind of money and end up with another Alex Gordan or Ian Kennedy situation on their hands. Hosmer is a fine player and a great guy, but he ain’t worth what they’re paying him.
You’ll be unhappy when your team can’t sign anyone else or keep their own good players because all of the money is going direct deposit into Manny Machado’s bank account. And the last half of that contract his numbers will be getting weaker and weaker, making it almost impossible to trade him. Yikes, the Padres just shot themselves in the foot.
6 years of Tatis, at least 5 more of Urias and Mejia and the rest still haven’t started their clocks yet. Yeah poor Padres
Machado may slow down but nobody expects a 10 year run out of this group. If we are hurting because we need to spend more 8, 9 years from now I’m happy. Good problem to have
This is coming from a Braves fan, who follows as much of baseball as i can. i believe that the next 3-5 years is going to be VERY interesting for the N.L. West.
The Dodgers are 2x defending N.L. champs, the Rockies extended their franchise player, showing their commitment to contending. S.D. has several young & controllable players coming up, plus a few that are already up. The Manny signing helps speed up the rebuilding process to start competing for the division. Enjoy the ride N.L. West fans.
Mike Trout will get $500 million in his extension with the Halos.
Good for him. Although he is a “Giant Killer” so this doesn’t bode well the Giants lol.
I can’t really say this is a good move or a bad move, just something that had to happen eventually. Colorado obviously really loves him but these huge contracts rarely if ever work out.
A-Rod’s first deal worked ok, CC Sabathia was pretty much worth his contract, I can’t think of any others that didn’t go south.
While it’s scary to think of the bevy of Rockies players who underperformed after leaving Colorado (Tulo,Hawpe,Atkins), it won’t really be an issue since they’re keeping him around. And before you say Tulo suffered because of injuries, he immediately forgot how to hit as soon as he stepped in Toronto.
What you are forgetting is that all two of the three that you mentioned (Hawpe, Atkins) underperformed for a couple of years BEFORE they left Colorado. And Tulo has been a walking DL stint since 2007, so that was bound to catch up to him eventually.
Hawpe had good road splits with the Rockies, Atkins was already declining before he left the Rockies (.226 AVG, .650 OPS) in 2009.
In 2001 Derek Jeter signed a 10 year 189 million dollar contract.Over that time he accumulated a WAR of 43.5. How’d that work out for the Yankees
Veela see
*Verlander. Hit post too quick
The embarrassing off-season continues
Embarrassing? What exactly do you expect to happen?
Sarcastic response to JD Martinez
Great player and future HOF player for the Rockies. Deserves every penny especially with all the great seasons he had for chump change (MLB world only)
Rendon $$$$$$$$$
Now we will have a baseline for a Chapman Contract in a few years, however with Boras representing him and playing for the A’s i would think a Chapman extension would be unlikely.
Wow $32.5 mil a yr is crazy for a player that has home/road splits are different. That’s around $50 mil a yr bet him and Blackmon and their bullpen is high money wise, that will mean they’ll have to use quite a.few young guys that are cheap.
Arenado has hit 37 hrs or more every season for the last 4 years. Harper has hit 37 hrs once in his entire career. Arenado has a lifetime split hitting 263 on the road where he plays half his games and over all a 291 lifetime ba. Harper has hit under 250 two of the last three years. Arenado is a gold glove third baseman. Harper a bad fielding outfielder.Harper is going to get a 10 year contract close to Arenados average amount per year. Explain to me again which contract is the crazy one
The bullpen will be entirely homegrown by 2021. They’ve got 5 RPs in their top 30 prospect list, plus a bunch of SPs who could fallback as RPs. Would be surprised to see them signing ANY pitchers in the next 4-5 years, other than maybe a small 1 year deal.
For anyone wanting to criticize his home/road splits, suggest a comp with any other NL West player. It would be interesting to see what trends appear across divisions. Other than Colorado, NL West has the biggest parks.
It’s a ton of money but I would pay it to him seven days a week and twice on Sunday before giving Harper anything close to what he wants.
Coors gets overplayed with Arenado. He owns a career .861 at SFG, which is higher than in ARI (.817). Plus he owns an .810 at SDP. Does Coors help him? Sure. It does anyone, but it’s not like he can’t hit outside of Coors.
His career ops on the road is around 780 which is anything but elite
Without any frame or reference, that’s accurate. He struggled to a .547 OPS in Miami, .585 OPS in Philly, and various AL parks in small sample sizes. I’d be more concerned with the ~.817 OPS he’s shown in the other NL West parks (3 of them being pitcher’s parks) than some random road trips outside of the division to prove that he could still hit very well if he played his home games somewhere other than Coors.
Conspiracy Theory #1278 – Rockies wanted to get this done and announced in order to push up the price for Harper for other teams! Hehehe.
Seriously. Well deserved, wish he were on my team.
Good for him. Sounds like Arenado is a good a guy and I am glad he is getting to stay where he wants to be.
Opt out after 3yrs, that’s supposedly the snag in Harper/Philly neg? Boras wants it, Phillies don’t. I am stoked for Nolan, but that does not bode well for the Phillies. Let Harper sign/stay in the west…
People say he’s overrated because of Coors/Road splits. But no one ever talks about how difficult it actually is to play in Colorado. In my opinion, playing in coors makes you just as valuable if not more durable than the average mlb player. Especially arenado who’s played 150 plus games year after year
Good for him. He seems like a genuinely good dude and he could turn out to be as good as Brooks Robinson over the life of his career at the hot corner.
The battle for Gold Glove at 3B in the NL will be fun to watch between him and Machado.
Boras couldn’t have timed this better himself lol
Why do sportswriters continue the false story that San Diego is a pitchers’ park? The fences have moved in. Construction in the area has changed the aerodynamics. Petco plays very even, very neutral these days. Petco originally was definitely a pitchers’ park, but the situation has evolved even if sportswriters refuse to do the same.
Congrats Nolan! Well deserved.
When I see deals like Arenado’s, it makes me all the more happy that the Padres ponied up and closed the deal with Manny.
#GoPadres
Eight years of being a bridesmaid.
That’s nothing. I’ve spent 13 years as a busboy.
BTW – I’m paying more income tax on my bus job this year than Amazon is paying on it’s $11BB net profit this year. If that’s ‘trickle down’, the money is clearly trickling down from the likes of me to the likes of Amazon.
So long as it’s not 10 years….. get to 10 and the good folks here will lose their chit! But 8 or 7 years and the gm is a genius
This is a good signing for everyone. And with all that homegrown talent there shouldn’t be a financial crunch ever in Denver. The guy is pure baseball stud and has earned this contract
Well done Nolan!
People here are deeply misunderstanding how home/road splits work. Pretty much every player hits better at home than on the road. A player’s road numbers at a given park do not represent what his numbers would be if that were his home park. The home/road splits have a lot more to do with preparedness due to travel, familiarity, and the psychological effects of a hostile crowd than due to some intrinsic connection between a player’s skill and the park itself.
This is as true of Coors Field as anywhere. Yes, the elevation makes a difference, but not nearly as much as most people think. Not enough to turn a merely average or slightly above average player into Nolan Arenado.
You are truly misunderstanding the magnitude of the difference.
No I’m not. Road park factors are biased against parks with poorer home pitching staffs (generally the Rockies), and that makes up much of the difference. And Coors didn’t even have the highest park factor last year.
Check the road splits of other players, most have similar to Arenado. Left handed hitters for the Yankees in particular.
Great signing, now get a decent catcher.
Define, “similar”.
Sorry he won’t be a FA … but this is Good for the game.
This seems like a pretty fair deal to me. The Rockies are essentially paying him market value with a smaller chance of this becoming a crippling deal by only lasting until age 36.
And the Yankees strikeout again. Lol
Can you strikeout on something you never took a pitch on? Stop acting as if you know what Cashman is thinking. If he didn’t make a strong push for Manny then it would make no sense to go after Arenando.
Last year Rafael Devers had a 240 ba and a -0.9 dWAR and a 0 total WAR but the Yankees with Andujar who had a 2,2 WAR need him more then Boston Right
almost every team in baseball would take this guy however you can argue that New York does need him more than Boston since Boston is the Champions regardless of what Boston got out of their third base position
The Yankees wisely stayed out of a bidding war on an overrated player they didn’t need anyway, Machado. They wisely kept their young and cost controlled core by not trading for a great third baseman, Arenado, but again one who plays a position the Yankees have adequately covered. You’re thinking like a fantasy team GM and not one who has to pay real dollars for players. The Yankees didn’t strike out at all; rather, they continue to have one of the most dominant lineups in baseball. The Padres are the ones who really struck out. That contract is going to be a huge anchor around that team’s neck within 5 years. Their only hope is that he exercises his opt out option.
As a Yanks fan I’m glad he extended with the Rockies. This way we can end the “trade Angujar and sign Arenado” talks. Great defensive player but those historic road splits concern me.
As someone else said, it’s not much bigger a gap than Machado. Look at the road sOPS+, 114 for Arenado and 119 for Machado.
I didn’t want them to sign Manny either. That being said Manny’s home/road differential was about -117 whereas Arenado was -197.
How about we start the “trade Angujar and others for Arenado” talks?
Trout (rightfully) has the current highest AAV among position players at slightly over 34M.
Obviously you didn’t read the article.
The newly agreed upon contract will replace the one-year, $26MM contract to which Arenado had already agreed and establish a new record annual salary for position players, topping Miguel Cabrera’s prior mark of $31MM. In terms of overall average annual salary (AAV), Arenado’s contract trails only Zack Greinke’s $34.4MM mark for the largest in MLB history.
Trouts average annual salary is 24.2 million dollars.
All I was trying to convey is that Trout is the highest paid position player right now, as it should be.
What it wrong with you he is not. Trout is making 24.2 million. Before this signing Cabrera was the highest paid position player at 31 million. Now Arenado is the highest paid position player.
Your out of your mind and apparently illiterate.
“Your out of your mind and apparently illiterate”
Your? Hmmm
This is what AZ should have done with Goldschmidt.
I agree but it’s a two way street. I believe Arizona tried to talk extension but if Goldy wanted to test FA then D-Backs did the right thing.
Not the same case at all. Goldschmidt at 31 is on the wrong side of 30 while Arenado is not. The 4 year difference is huge.
This extension makes Josh Donaldson as the best free agent 3rd baseman in the 2019-20 offseason. I would say Matt Carpenter, but he has a $18.5 million club option that the Cardinals would be stupid not to pick up.
Anyone think they did this so the price would sky rocket for Bryce Harper to any national league team?
No Team gives a player a $260mil extension, just to potentially drive up the price of a free agent they have nothing to do with. That’s just stupid.
“he’s also slashed a robust .267/.329/.502 on the road over the past four years.”
I don’t think robust means what you think it means.
.831 OPS is very robust.
A 114 OPS+ (Nolan’s road OPS+) would have been good for 65th in all of MLB in 2018 among qualified hitters.
Robust applies.
Also of note, that came with a sub-par .270 BABIP.
Harper’s price just went up. Boras should send Arenado a bonus.
Given their defensive positions and offensive capabilities, I don’t know that Harper should (or will) get more than Arenado.
Like Blackmon he knew the huge differences in his home and road splits from coors would have effected his free agency so he took the extension now
Well now Harper def isn’t signing for < 10 years. Through their age 35 season appears to be what it takes to get top players.
I think he will be a Phillie eventually for 10 years but I won’t count out the possibility of a surprise team getting him for less
Extreme overpay…he’s good, he’s the face, but Eugenio Suarez is only a couple of years behind him production wise and comes much cheaper…good move Redlegs…
huh?
Suarez is good, but he hasn’t even sniffed the level Arenado is on
Nolan Arenado and his agent are two very smart people. Absolutely the right decision to stay in Colorado and sign that lucrative contract. He will have a great chance at Cooperstown.
Playing outside of Colorado he ain’t even CLOSE to being that kind of player. Yes he is overrated. Yes he’s not a $30+ mil per year player. Yes he needs Coors more than Coors needs him. But he’s smart to stay. Very smart to stay. He can put up elite numbers at home while pumping decent numbers on the road.
I applaud the Arenado side for signing the deal.
He also plays road games in SF, SD and LA… not exactly hitter friendly parks. Even AZ now has a humidor.
9 games in each park out of 162. Wow!
Considering the massive discrepancy along with the fact that his road numbers x2 probably doesn’t give him half that amount I’d say who cares to the road parks when the home park’s cooking tastes mighty nice.
Gold glove in every year as a starter says a lot. This guy is a complete ballplayer, he earned every penny.
Yes. A good 3B defender and roughly a .260/20ish/75 guy outside of Colorado if he plays on another team. Pretty good, just not quite $30+ mil per season good.
Really dude? If he played somewhere else, had an arm tied behind his back he would be awful….
Lets play with the reality we have eh?
“A good 3B defender”?
Have you been paying attention the last six seasons or so?
I ask because that comment pretty much screams that you haven’t.
Bobby – Yeah, should have said great. If saying good offends you please stay away from sharp objects. Didn’t take much to rattle you.
Friars your reality does not exist. Arenado’s entire career is proven by the massive numbers discrepancy. Return to your fake life and leave the grown-up baseball conversations to us. Thanks.
ah
bhahahahahaa
It appears there is a receipt to be cashed here, as Swinging Friars miscalculated Arenado’s talent and ability. It appears Colorado wants to get rid of him and Arenado is not as complete as you thought. I’m sure you are hiding. I do not blame you.
So he’ll still be on the yankees next year, right?
I don’t think so unless they are somehow desperate to dump his salary so soon lol
Good sign for rox, hes alot better than bryce.
Yankees are going to regret not signing Machado now. Those Cashman leaks that he preffered Nolan are going to blow up in his face.
The Padres are the ones who will regret the Machado signing. The Yankees have Andujar at third and Torres coming to play short; Machado would have been a fantastic waste of money. First, the Yankees don’t need Machado; second, he is WAY WAY WAY overrated.
I am very intrigued to see what this means for Trevor Story, too.
Brendan Rodgers plays SS, though not nearly as well as Story, and if Rodgers isn’t the long-term answer to Arenado leaving then he may be the answer to Story departing as he gets more expensive.
All the more reason for Bridich to start negotiating early career extensions for several of the current young guys on the 25-man roster to lock in costs and obtain more years of control.
This is why you can’t count on future FAs. Trout for example, may sign an extension with LA.
Interesting. I’d take him over Harper in a heartbeat. No contest. I’d probably take him over Machado too.
For me, it’s Machado > Arenado > Harper.
Yikes. I think you have it backwards. Harper > Arenado > Machado. Maybe switch Harper and Arenado but Machado is a distant third. You watch, the Padres will be trying to unload that contract within a few years. Dude wouldn’t know the difference between a strike and a ball if they came in with a label..
I will take the guys who are consistently great over the guy who had one monster season and hasn’t been anything better than a little above average otherwise.
Every. Single. Time.
Too bad Arenado isn’t consistently great outside Colorado.
Every. Single. Year.
Harper had gigantic hype coming into his pro career, and rightly so. He has had one huge season since arriving at the MLB level and has otherwise been propped up more by that reputation than his actual on-field performance.
Machado and Arenado have both been significantly above-average since establishing themselves as everyday regulars.
Harper has the higher ceiling, for certain, but he has also demonstrated a much lower floor than the other two, and he has spent much more time near that floor than he has his ceiling. To me, that’s an indicator of what is most likely to happen going forward.
Stupid money.
Agreed, but I would say he is more deserving of stupid money than Harper and Machado. He gets 8/260 but I’d sooner give him 10/300 than either of the other two.
As a Dbacks fan this is not a good day. I’d take Arenado over Harper/Machado any day of the week. The guy is a beast and I love the fire he plays with even though he uses it against my team.
My thoughts exactly. I’m an Orioles fan (sadly, I know…) and I appreciate everything Machado did for us while he was in Baltimore but I think Arenado is a more exciting and impactful player than either him or Harper, without a doubt.
Good for him, good for the Rockies. He’s a gamer. I, as a Dodger fan think he is a much better star than Harper or Machado.
Have to give Rockies ownership a lot of credit. Not a big market but they take care of their own with Helton, Tulo, Gonzalez, and now Arenado.
I wish more teams would take notes
…many years ago they were big spenders on Nagel and Hampton……they weren’t home grown and didn’t pan out as well but the Rockies do try …
Well this just delayed the Harper signing even more. Now he’ll want to beat the $32.5M average that Arenado just signed…will it ever end???
Scott Boras is in a very tight spot at the moment.
If that is how Harper feels that is one selfish man.
I do think bryce is a spoiled entitled baby but i think alot of those decisions r influenced by boras. Boras wants to get every penny he can. 1 it feeds his ego 2 hes making a % and 3 it keeps the star players rolling in.
Harper’s nowhere near as good a ballplayer as Arenado, regardless of age. If anything, Arenado’s contract will have a negative impact on Harper’s crazy contract expectations.
5.5 avg war vs 3.9 avg war, less if you take out Harpers 10 war outlier season
Take out the 10 WAR season! While you’re at it, take out all of his other good seasons. Now he’s really bad!
Arenado’s extreme home/road production splits are an indicator he may have a heck of a time getting a similar contract outside of Colorado.
If Harper was in Colorado for the first stretch of his career, I’m sure his good seasons wouldn’t be classified as outliers.
I personally would prefer Arenado, but to use his career numbers for the sake of classifying Harper as overrated is dumb.
In 2019 Harper hit 50 pts less than Arenado and still had an OBP 20 pts higher. Harper holds tremendous value, and doesn’t need Coors to prove it.
For me, the big difference between Harper and Arenado is the consistency.
Harper has demonstrated both a higher ceiling and a lower floor, but has spent much more time close to his floor.
Teams that bet on the ceiling almost always lose that bet.
Lets face it the money is so huge none of us have a clue how life altering that is. Just how salaries have escalated in baseball.
Arenado is a fine fielder and yes hits better in Colorado, but at least he isn’t a horses rear end on or off the field.
It’s a match made in heaven.
The only way I’d give him that money is if he played half the season in Colorado.
I’m very happy for both Nolan and the Rockies for getting this accomplished. This will remove pressure and aggravation from both parties in the near future. Arenado is the premier defensive glove man at 3rd base in the N.L. He is a constant threat at the plate and an excellent RBI guy. Arenado is a winner who wants to win a W.S. The only down side is that it could stifle the prospects of young infielders like Hampson, McMahon, Welker, and Brendan Rodgers. But hey, competition is what it’s all about.
Minoso +1
Talk about perfect timing 260 comments, now I’m 261. The only reason he signed is because Scott Boras’ not his agent.
What does Boras have to do with it, boras clients sign long term extensions all the time. Stephen Strasburg and Elvis Andrus are two that come to mind
A lot of long term extensions… yes.
But he certainly had a hand in Moustakas losing $11m last year for being too stubborn and holding out. Win some, lose some.
If 5.51 Avg WAR is worth 32.5M, then 3.9 Avg WAR must be worth… 23M. Okay Bryce your move.
Good for him. I’m a Cubs fan but I love watching him play when it’s not vs the Cubs. Kinda got low balled. Glad he’s gonna stay in Colorado
Will look like a huge mistake in year 3
Huge mistake of underpaying him.
His home/road splits are extreme…Very telling.
Huge difference in batting average and slugging % for his career.
batting average: .320/.263
slugging %: .609/.469
on-base % on the road is only .318.
Machado on the road has a 319 obp worse then Arenado he has a 442 sluggimg % worse then Arenado and a 271 batting average slightly better then Arenado and in a year and a half less playing time Arenado has hit 9 more hrs on the road then Machado and Machado has played a lot of his road games in Toronto NY and Boston 3 of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. So if you question Arenado for his splits what does that say about Machado
Oriole Park at Camden Yards is a great hitters park, easily one of the best. That can’t be disputed. Yankee Stadium, Rogers Center and Fenway (for righties) are all good-great for hitters.. Tampa, as well, is at least neutral for hitters. Now he’ll be playing half his games in the heavy air of Petco Park.
In twp years, Colton Welker will be available for third base
This almost certainly factored in to the timing of that opt-out clause.