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MLB Faith And Hope Report: 2019

By Tim Dierkes | March 25, 2019 at 5:20pm CDT

In Andrew Zimbalist’s 2006 book In The Best Interests Of Baseball?, he wrote:

“[Commissioner Bud] Selig had a pet phrase that makes considerable sense: the fans of each team need to have ’faith and hope’ that their team has a chance to win at the beginning of each season.  Without this faith and hope, fans will eventually lose interest, and the game will suffer.”

After reading that recently, I was inspired to create an annual Faith And Hope Report here at MLB Trade Rumors, so we can put a number on how many teams are competitive and track it over time.  I’ll be combining FanGraphs’ projected playoff odds with my own common sense, and there is some subjectivity involved on the borderline teams.  I’ll elaborate on those later in this post.

Teams that enter the 2019 season with faith and hope: Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Indians, Twins, Astros, Athletics, Angels, Nationals, Phillies, Mets, Braves, Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Pirates, Dodgers, Rockies, Padres, Diamondbacks

Teams that enter 2019 without faith and hope: Blue Jays, Orioles, White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Mariners, Marlins, Giants

Conclusion: 70% of MLB teams have faith and hope of contending in 2019.

Arguable teams:

  • The Blue Jays carry a 76 win projection and a 3.9% chance of reaching the playoffs.  If a team has a high-70s win projection, we look at its offseason to determine its interest in winning.  The Jays’ offseason was clearly that of a club that is not pushing to win in 2019.
  • It feels like the White Sox tried to pull out of their rebuild in the 2018-19 offseason, but their pursuit of Manny Machado and other big names fell short.  Looking at the veterans they did acquire, plus a 72 win projection and 1.1% chance of making the playoffs, and the Sox deserve to be lumped in with the Tigers and Royals in baseball’s least competitive division.
  • The Rangers’ preseason projections are about the same as the White Sox.  Texas spent a fair bit of money stocking their rotation with post-Tommy John pitchers, most notably Lance Lynn.  But so many things would have to go right for this team to sniff the playoffs that we have to classify them as a team without faith and hope this year.
  • The Mariners have already snagged a couple of wins in Tokyo, pushing their projection to 76 and playoff odds to 3.6%.  GM Jerry Dipoto authored a complicated offseason that involved shipping off Jean Segura, Mike Zunino, Robinson Cano, James Paxton, Edwin Diaz, and James Pazos.  In some cases, Dipoto acquired big leaguers in return, and he also signed Yusei Kikuchi, but it’s clear the Mariners are prepared to take a step back in 2019 even if they have not committed to a multiyear rebuild.
  • The Reds have a 79 win projection, but the relative parity of the NL Central means they have a 15.7% shot at the playoffs.  Plus, the Reds were clearly in go-for-it mode during the winter, bringing in Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, and Alex Wood to lead a retooled rotation.  They also added Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp.  An extension from the Reds will prevent Gray from reaching free agency after the winter, but all the other key acquisitions will be eligible.  Give the Reds credit: they’re trying.
  • The Pirates aren’t much better than a team like the Mariners, but the Bucs carry an 11.4% shot at the playoffs given their division.  The club had an extremely low-key offseason, missing an opportunity to more clearly position themselves as contenders.  The team did little to earn the designation of a team trying to win, but it’s still true that their fans have faith and hope entering the 2019 campaign.
  • The Diamondbacks are a lot like the Pirates: they have a 77 win projection and a 9.7% chance at the playoffs.  The team made bargain acquisitions and shipped off longtime star Paul Goldschmidt.  Still, the D’Backs focused on Major League players in return for Goldy, who was in the final year of his contract.  They are the most borderline of the borderline cases, but there’s enough chance of a long shot playoff run to put them in the “faith and hope” category.
  • I can’t say the same for the Giants, who finished second in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes and own a 73 win projection and 3.5% chance at the playoffs.  Like many of the teams listed here, I wouldn’t call the Giants a rebuilding team at present.  However, their biggest offseason move was re-signing Derek Holland, their outfield may be the game’s worst, and it’s a club without a real chance of contending.  Contrast that with the Padres, who might only be 4-5 wins better than the Giants but added a superstar player in Manny Machado and will conceivably look to add this summer rather than subtract.
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Faith And Hope Report MLBTR Originals

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102 Comments

  1. joshua.barron1

    6 years ago

    Holy crap does the American League blow. No wonder my Red Sox won 108 games last year!

    6
    Reply
    • xabial

      6 years ago

      American League Central*

      Your Sawx play in the toughest division in baseball.

      First time ever, AL East produced two 100-win teams. Rays had 90 wins, and missed the playoffs, whereas CLE had 91 wins, yet won division. AL Central is a disgrace.

      5
      Reply
      • chitown311

        6 years ago

        K.

        Reply
        • xabial

          6 years ago

          Chisox inferiority complex to Cubs is showing.

          White Sox will always be the Cubs’ little sister.

          5
          Reply
        • Aaron Sapoznik

          6 years ago

          xabial: The White Sox won’t be the Cubs “little sister” in a few seasons when the Northsiders competitive window closes and they need to restock their depleted farm system. Veterans like Jon Lester and Ben Zobrist will be long gone, Kris Bryant will bolt for free agency and the front office will still be stuck with the albatross contract of Jason Heyward.

          Meanwhile, Cub fans will have to endure a juggernaut on the South Side that will include two former top prospects in generational hitter Eloy Jimenez and future co-ace Dylan Cease, the latter providing the White Sox with a pair of power TOR pitchers that will also include Michael Kopech.

          Contrary to popular belief, the White Sox haven’t always been the red headed stepchild to the Cubs in Chicago. The Southsiders were the first to break their long championship drought in 2005. I’m also old enough to remember the Go-Go White Sox teams of the 1950’s and 1960’s that dominated Chicago baseball and might have also reigned supreme in MLB if it weren’t for your Damn Yankees! lol

          5
          Reply
        • Aaron Sapoznik

          6 years ago

          Btw-Both Chicago teams had their moments in the 1980’s and 1990’s while also posting similar attendance figures. As most MLBTR commenters know by now, I am also the rare die-hard fan of both teams and don’t have an axe to grind with either.

          3
          Reply
        • jkurk_22

          6 years ago

          Your history is correct on the chi Sox, but your whole hopefulness of their future is very bullish. Prospects don’t work out all the time and the rhetoric you present is betting solely on that

          3
          Reply
        • SalaryCapMyth

          6 years ago

          He has some good recent history to back up his gamble. Rebuilds arent easy to complete. The Padres took it in the wrong direction in 2015 and the Pirates didnt accomplish much more than a good division race a few years ago.

          However, the Cubs, Astros and to a lesser extent (so far) the Braves have demonstrated that rebuilds can lead to success.

          2
          Reply
        • Yankeepride88

          6 years ago

          The White Sox and Cubs have the same amount of World Series championships over the last 100 years. Both of them suck

          3
          Reply
        • citizen

          6 years ago

          Sox fans are diehard but fair weather attendance. Reinsdorf is too cheap of an owner to spend on free agency even if the sox are competitive. Cubs were just lucky, mostly hapless, to win the recent ws, but it’s been more about rebuilding wrigley than another ws, thanks to Epstein.

          Reply
        • jkurk_22

          6 years ago

          I agree with that and understand as a Braves fan. But he made specific high reaching claims to several players. And who knows he may be right, but that’s a lot of heavy betting. Especially for an org that’s had servers “top prospects” not live up to the hype (YET anyways) the last several years. Ie, Moncada, Gilito, and further back even Carlos Rodon

          Reply
        • jkurk_22

          6 years ago

          *several

          Reply
        • bush1

          6 years ago

          “Cubs were lucky to win the Wild Series”. You do realize they had the best record in baseball in 2016 when they won the World Series and has 8 MORE wins then the 2nd place team. But sure make up nonsense so you fell better that it was pure luck. SMH. Such nonsense, false, and childish crap.

          Reply
        • bush1

          6 years ago

          “Cubs were lucky to win the Wild Series”. You do realize they had the best record in baseball in 2016 and 8 MORE wins then the 2nd best record when they won the World Series. But sure just make up nonsense so you feel better.

          Reply
        • todd76

          6 years ago

          He forgets his favorite team has only 1 World Series championship in the last 18 years.

          1
          Reply
        • SalaryCapMyth

          6 years ago

          Maybe he did mention several names. His statement that the White Sox rebuild will carry them could be right without any of THOSE names worming out. But then he DID name several or he could have said the White Sox farm system. As many names as he through out there its almost synonymous.

          Reply
      • thegreatcerealfamine

        6 years ago

        The AL East is not the toughest division in baseball, that would be the NL Central followed by the NL East. The Red Sox and Yankees winning that many games just shows how weak 80% of the rest of the AL is.

        13
        Reply
        • Jbigz12

          6 years ago

          The ALE is pretty tough except for my Orioles. The jays are pretty comparable to the reds or pirates. Getting to beat up on Baltimore is certainly helpful. And the additional games v the AL central doesn’t hurt.

          4
          Reply
        • thegreatcerealfamine

          6 years ago

          The Jays might be comparable to last years Reds, but certainly not this years Reds. The AL has really only three legitimate teams right now which are truly good, the Red Sox, Yankees, and the Astros.

          5
          Reply
        • Jbigz12

          6 years ago

          I don’t know the jays get Vlad Jr up. They have smoak. Stroman, Sanchez, and Giles are all question marks but they all have potential to be really good. Shoe is a good rebound candidate also. I don’t think it’s a good team but I can see just as many question marks on the pirates. Maybe the reds have inched ahead w their moves. As much as I hate everything the Indians have done this offseason I can’t count them out either. Those 5 starters are really good.

          3
          Reply
        • sovtechno

          6 years ago

          Drury is another interesting player for the Jays surrounded by questions marks. Seems like most have written him off, though he has looked good this spring.

          Reply
        • Yankeepride88

          6 years ago

          That’s why the Red Sox slaughtered the Dodgers in the World Series, right? It never mattered who won the NL last year. Whoever won the AL was going to win the World Series

          Reply
        • bush1

          6 years ago

          The BL Central is the only division where every team is trying to win. Sure, the AL East has two very good teams, but they also have the worst team in baseball by far and two other mediocre teams with the Rays completely overachieving last yr. It’s actually not even close how much better thrnNL Central is it’s silly to argue.

          Reply
        • bush1

          6 years ago

          NL Central

          Reply
      • citizen

        6 years ago

        i have faith and hope the jankees will lose 90 games.

        2
        Reply
        • SalaryCapMyth

          6 years ago

          Faith and hope..in this case you could replace that phrase with another one..groundless optimism. Not being critical of you. I k ow you werent beinv serious.

          1
          Reply
      • VonPurpleHayes

        6 years ago

        I don’t know of the AL East is the toughest in baseball. The Orioles are a joke. Blue Jays are fun. Rays underrated, but I think the NL Central and NL East are.much tougher divisions.

        Reply
      • Melchez

        6 years ago

        In the last 15 years… The Tigers, the Royals, the Rangers, the Phillies, the Astros have all been in the World Series more often than the Yankees. Of course, the Red Sox, the Cards, the Giants and Dodgers have also.
        Like I’ve said in the past… the Yankees have been in the World Series every century since the 1920’s… they are at risk of missing out if they don’t make it this year.

        Reply
        • jb19

          6 years ago

          *decade

          Reply
        • Melchez

          6 years ago

          Sorry, decade. my bad.

          Reply
        • Steven Chinwood

          6 years ago

          Thanks for the remedial history lesson, but what exactly does that have to do with anything?

          1
          Reply
    • Melchez

      6 years ago

      What they need to do is get rid of divisions and league’s and just have everyone play each team the same amount of times. Then the team that has the most wins at the end of the year would be champions. That would eliminate the winner of a division that doesn’t belong. It would eli.inate the lucky wild card team that gets hot at the right time. It would produce an undisputed world champion.

      Reply
  2. martras

    6 years ago

    It’s pretty sad when the projection shows 85 wins is likely to get you into the playoffs in the AL.

    2
    Reply
    • trace

      6 years ago

      And 100 wins can only get you a wild card.

      4
      Reply
      • martras

        6 years ago

        Yep. No teams projected between like 85-94 wins at all. The teams are either elite, also rans or suckage.

        1
        Reply
  3. Screamer

    6 years ago

    The Giants are going to be horrible

    The players they have (besides Posey) are avg at best and when injuries happen, they have NOBODY to replace their “star” players

    3
    Reply
    • Deke

      6 years ago

      Agree, which sucks as a Giants fan.

      I was really excited to watch the game against the A’s yesterday but with DF it’s the same old thing, they just can’t hit. Every now and then they will have a blowout game and score 12 runs but regress to the mean and score 3 runs over their next 5 games.

      I am sick to death of SF not being able to hit for anything not average, not power and can’t even drive in a run with a runner at third and nobody out. Yet SF kept their awful hitting coach (Bam Bam) and even promoted him.

      Most years I watch about 140 games, this year I will probably watch 20 if it keeps up the way it’s looking.

      3
      Reply
      • Jbigz12

        6 years ago

        I don’t know how much you can put on the hitting coach. I mean sure he’s probably not getting the absolute best out of these guys but look at the guys he has. You’re playing a minor league signee in RF, a 28 year old with nothing on his resume in LF and you have old declining players around the infield. The age curve got this team. The guys are old and have declined but they’re being paid as if they’re productive. I don’t think the best hitting coach is changing that.

        3
        Reply
        • Deke

          6 years ago

          Sure in a year, you’re right but I’m talking about SF over the last decade, they just suck at hitting. It seems other teams hit better at AT&T than SF does. There are exceptions but still, in general they have never hit well.

          Reply
        • Vandals Took The Handles

          6 years ago

          @ Deke,

          A part of it’s the park. The team was not built to take advantage of the dimensions, and allow for the fact that relative to most MLB parks the ball doesn’t carry.

          Rather then acquiring guys trying to hit HR’s and elevate the ball, the Giants would be better off with guys that make contact, spray balls all over the field, and hit line drives. If they’re fast runners they can get triples and inside-the-park HR’s by hitting the ball down the lines or in the gaps and having it roll past the opposing teams OF’s.

          Unfortunately, the new GM is not moving in that direction.

          1
          Reply
        • Deke

          6 years ago

          @Vandals I TOTALLY agree with you. I’ve said multiple times on this site that SF needs to build a team that can hit the ball in the gaps and run. I even quoted the KC GM who said that they don’t get excited by players who hit the ball deep, they get excited by gap guys.

          Just to make your point… Look at last years starting 9. Name one guy that has any speed? Not one guy is a threat on the bases, and nobody really can turn a single into a double or a double into a triple… most of those guys turn doubles into singles!

          So yeah you’re absolutely right, makes no sense to me why they have built a team of medium to slow runners… I think maybe because SF got lucky with some waiver guys (like when they had the “water buffalo” outfield.. they won a WS and thought maybe it didn’t matter.

          1
          Reply
  4. JaysForDays

    6 years ago

    Did you put the twins on here just so we could pretend there’s even a race in the worst division in baseball? It’s ridiculous that 3 teams are so bad that hope needs to be given to a .500 team at best just so a division can title can be deemed competitive.

    4
    Reply
    • User 4245925809

      6 years ago

      That division has become the AL West of the late 70’s when it was wondered if somebody would win it with a losing record. Indians are a key injury away from doing just that.

      3
      Reply
      • Vandals Took The Handles

        6 years ago

        ALC is exciting to me…….

        I love watching Dayton Moore’s Royals. They were the last team left playing baseball correctly; though now it appears that Mike Shildt is bringing the Cardinals back to their roots.

        While the Royals were low on talent in 2018, they were fun to watch the last 10 or so weeks of the season. Pitching is not just about K’s, defense is not just about catching the ball, and batting is not just about hitting a HR or drawing a walk. Baseball on the field is a sport, not a computer game based on statistics.

        It’s quite possible the Royals can finish 2nd in the division in 2019. A lot depends on injuries as with all divisions; but the way the Royals run the bases puts pressure on defenses, and most MLB teams – especially the other 4 in the ALC – don’t play good defense. The Royals constantly school their players, so it’s easy to see improvement as the year unfolds. Watching them make a longshot run for 2nd place will be far more entertaining then watching the Yankees-Red Sox, knowing they’ll take on salaries of veterans by the trading deadline.

        Will enjoy watching the Cardinals, Braves, and a little Astros and Mets as well. Quality managers and staffs that bring players along is always great to witness.

        2
        Reply
    • JaysForDays

      6 years ago

      It could very well be the worst division in professional sports. The AFC east is pretty bad in the NFL but even that has 1 less team…

      Reply
  5. DarkSide830

    6 years ago

    well, so much for the incessant “the AL is the better league” talk.

    Reply
    • martras

      6 years ago

      At least the incessant inferiority complex of NL team fans seems to remain, haha.

      Reply
      • DarkSide830

        6 years ago

        funny you had to be personally offended by such a statement. my point was how annoying it was to hear is so often. im not here to sing the praise of the NL, just noting how annoying it was and hoping it goes away a bit. no need to attack me personally.

        Reply
    • JaysForDays

      6 years ago

      If anything, this only proves the AL is tougher — having to find a legit 9th player/batter… teams feeling forced to rebuild just to compete

      Reply
  6. tiredolddude

    6 years ago

    One can see the Pirates getting a WC or flopping miserably. Truly, being so thin and iffy at every position comes down to each player playing to potential, if not better. I’d have had more hope had they not given a serviceable starter like Nova away for nothing. His contract was manageable and more than anything else, he could have been a stopgap while Keller matures. Instead, they have a big hole in the rotation.

    Reply
    • Monkey’s Uncle

      6 years ago

      While they have a big hole in the rotation, continuing to plug it with Nova wasnt really the solution. He frankly wasn’t very solid at all last year, and I really didn’t have an issue with moving on from him. He was never going to fetch much of a return either. But they could have easily found better and equally cheap options to replace Nova than Jordan Lyles, and that is the big problem with this scenario. They really didn’t put the money they would have paid Nova towards anyone to improve the team, not yet anyways. They still have major question marks and little depth at multiple positions, and frankly I’m surprised anyone thinks of them as a playoff team. They aren’t a bad team, but they sure don’t look noticeably better than last season’s just above .500 finish either.

      Reply
      • tiredolddude

        6 years ago

        Agreed, and that was the point about Nova. It wasn’t that he was going to get them 15 wins, but such a dump of relatively and comparatively low salary meant they weren’t going to find a replacement. Senseless
        And yes, I’m surprised that the PG Pirates writer is looking at 89-73. They were a pleasant surprise at a couple games over .500 last year and duplicating that would be admirable

        1
        Reply
  7. Pickle_Britches

    6 years ago

    So far Zaidi has done a horrible job since he’s been in the office. Signing nothing but has beens and players that had a “good” year in aa or AAA last season. Their biggest problem they needed addressed was a outfielder. And yet they didn’t address it. What he’s done has showed me that he don’t care about what his team is going to do this year. I believe that the Giants offense in 2019 will be a MLB worst.

    1
    Reply
    • thethrill

      6 years ago

      Hey Pickles please tell me how you would immediately fix the Giants this year? What FA outfielder could he have signed or who could he trade for with the trade bait we have? I’m not really sure what expectations you had of him coming in but he’s doing WAY better than Evans by not signing old players to long term contracts. We will finally see Duggar and Mac play a full season, which most SF fans have been asking for.

      1
      Reply
    • fred-3

      6 years ago

      Giants are stuck. They either pour more money into the team looking to complete and go way over the luxury tax or they blow it up. Them choosing to do neither looks like they denying the inevitable. Farhan is just doing half measures to appease the ownership.

      Reply
  8. The Ranger Fan

    6 years ago

    So you are writing off my Rangers before the 1st game is played,I have faith and hope in my team and I believe our rotation is gonna surprise a few teams, For those writing us off before game one is played can eat shite, At least we’re not tanking like some in our division have in the past with 100 losses and payrolls of 50-60 million per year,They are reaping the rewards now from 3-4 years of worst team in baseball and great draft picks, let it play out before talking smack.

    Reply
    • jb19

      6 years ago

      Rangers suck. Enjoy last place in the division for the next 5 years.

      Reply
  9. The Ranger Fan

    6 years ago

    Really,Writing off my team before game one is played

    Reply
  10. Christopher_Oriole

    6 years ago

    Wonder why they didn’t cover the Orioles place off chances? Is 30 years later too late for the “why not” season?

    Reply
  11. xabial

    6 years ago

    Thank you for everything that you do, sir Tim!

    2
    Reply
  12. The Ranger Fan

    6 years ago

    Writing us off kinda early,only four teams had won more games and playoff games than the Rangers in the past 10 years, That’s right only 4

    Reply
    • Jbigz12

      6 years ago

      Wins over the last 10 years doesn’t really matter. The orioles are probably relatively high on that list also. You’re going into the season with 5 pitchers who have all had TJ. 3 of them are just coming off of it. You dealt away kela at the deadline and traded profar this offseason. You traded them for prospects who won’t help this season.

      Now, putting a team like the D’Backs in the faith and hope category is a pretty close call. You’re probably on par with them. The A’s probably wouldn’t have made this list last season either and it’s not worth a damn thing so if they surprise they surprise. They’re a pretty big long shot though you have to admit that. I think the org knows that. Personally id put the M’s on this list over Texas or Arizona. They have a completely different roster construction and I’m at least intrigued to see what they do. But no argument for me if you left all 3 off.

      4
      Reply
    • Yankeedynasty

      6 years ago

      I don’t gotta no you’ve said this

      Reply
      • Yankeedynasty

        6 years ago

        *I think you’ve said this

        Reply
    • The Ranger Fan

      6 years ago

      Sorry stats say last 7 years we’ve won more games and more playoff games than 26 teams, Yankees are number one, as for my commenter about Baltimore they are 26th in winning percentage in 10 years sorry.

      Reply
      • Jbigz12

        6 years ago

        And 10 years ago Derek Jeter and Mariano rivera were playing baseball. They’re in the hall of fame now. It’s just not relevant at all to whether they’ll be good. You’re convinced it means something but it doesn’t say anything about this years club. The rangers have been really bad the last 2 seasons and only added a bunch of question mark starters.

        Reply
  13. 24TheKid

    6 years ago

    As a Mariners fan, I have as much hope as I ever do.

    1
    Reply
    • Jbigz12

      6 years ago

      2-0. Unfortunately you don’t have easy teams to beat up on like the AL Central. I’m intrigued by the M’s. A real long shot but I don’t think the A’s are very good and the Rangers aren’t exactly title contenders. Competition is the Twins, Rays, and A’s. Anything can happen. Would be pretty funny to see it. The year they semi blow it up they finally stop the drought.

      Reply
      • 24TheKid

        6 years ago

        It’s possible, but definitely a long shot. The Twins have the easiest path to the wild card due to the central, but, there’s also a chance they’re really bad again, and the Rays have the hardest path, but maybe the best team.

        The Mariners only stand a chance if Dipoto decides not to trade any of the veterans they acquired this off season if the team is performing well(which Dipoto hinted at in a radio interview). And the M’s will also need to take a flyer on a few relievers this season, as Dipoto in the same interview also said he won’t trade any prospects. So, it’s possible to due to the lack of competition, but unlikely.

        Reply
        • 24TheKid

          6 years ago

          And that last sentence(minus lack of competition) pretty much sums up my thoughts about Mariners each of the last many seasons.

          Reply
        • Jbigz12

          6 years ago

          I don’t blame him for that stance. If the M’s slipped in the playoffs they certainly wouldn’t be built to go anywhere. I don’t know if the rays can win enough with the Yankees and Red Sox in the division. I’m not high on the A’s at all and Minnesota is Minnesota. Like you said their path is the easiest but I hate their pen as much as Seattle’s and they have a ton of question Marks. It’ll be interesting to see how things shake out.

          Reply
  14. duse

    6 years ago

    The Detroit Tigers will win the Central. If I didn’t believe this, I wouldn’t pay attention to baseball. Be a fan!

    1
    Reply
  15. citizen

    6 years ago

    fairly certain the term is hope springs eternal, which has been around for years.

    Reply
  16. Guest617

    6 years ago

    blue jays realistically have < .0000001 to make the playoffs

    2
    Reply
  17. ken48tribe

    6 years ago

    It may be semantics but “without faith and hope “ sounds a whole lot better than hopeless.

    Reply
  18. Wainofan

    6 years ago

    I’m 42 and my team(Cardinals) have started every single year of my life with fans having faith and hope without fail. Obviously some years better than others, but optimism has always been there. Shame on teams that tank or don’t give their fans hope every year.

    3
    Reply
    • Snack Attack

      6 years ago

      Keep drinkin that red kool-aid Fredbird!

      Reply
      • Wainofan

        6 years ago

        Tell me some facts to disprove my statement. I’m waiting….

        1
        Reply
  19. tiredolddude

    6 years ago

    I love the game but the economics have essentially killed my faith and hope, and I’d bet most small market fans feel the same way. MLB has no qualms with the status quo and as such, the deck will always be loaded in the bigger picture.
    Sure, Cards fans can have that annual faith and hope. You can go and get a Goldie and extend him. For the scans of the Pirates, Brewers, Royals and others, it’s a non stop cycle of build the farm, watch them mature and excel, compete for a couple years and then either trade them before contract time or watch them leave in FA. And repeat.
    Add this to the advent of $400m and $300m salaries, and they’re killing it for fans.

    1
    Reply
    • Jbigz12

      6 years ago

      It’s hard to buy into that narrative when you have teams like Pittsburgh who receive about 40 million dollars in revenue sharing every single year yet they choose to spend 70MM on their team. Similar deal down in TB. That’s a real disgrace.

      1
      Reply
      • joew

        6 years ago

        that $40m number is in question. last number i know with some certainty is in 2008 and that was 39M from the leaked AP docs.. The pirates revenue payments was decreased for 7 straight years up to 2018 according to MLB offices . I’m all ears if you got a fairly reliable source though.

        Reply
  20. its_happening

    6 years ago

    I’ll take the under for the Toronto Blue Jays in good faith.

    3
    Reply
  21. joew

    6 years ago

    seems odd the pirates have a lower percentage than the reds to make the playoffs with one of the better projected pitching staffs in the MLB with a line up that will likely be better than last season.

    Reply
  22. frankf

    6 years ago

    I totally agree with this. It’s one thing to know you’re out of it as early as May or June and back up the truck, but to enter the season in tank mode, regardless of your chances is a slap in the face to the fans.

    And you can play the ‘fans are dumb’ card, which they often are, but they’re the audience. And the bottom line is that professional sports is, above all else, entertainment, and as a provider of entertainment, be it a sports team, band, or TV show, your number one responsibility is to keep your audience wanting to watch.

    Reply
  23. someoldguy

    6 years ago

    Faith and hope is a ticket selling slogan, not a winning baseball team or strategy.

    Reply
    • hoof hearted

      6 years ago

      faith and hope is a way the Commish tells the MLBPA that teams ARE trying to be competitive. Used car salesman sales pitch.

      1
      Reply
  24. bobtillman

    6 years ago

    No one questions that it’s harder to be competitive with small market revenues. And in fact it’s harder than most fans think. It’s less that the Yanks/Sox and whoever can afford 200M payrolls; it’s that they can afford 400M payrolls and still make money.

    But a 400M payroll wouldn’t generate 4 times the amount of wins that a 100M payroll will; the game as played just doesn’t work that way; results are just too accidental. So that’s why nobody has a 400M payroll.

    But every fan has a right to think that their team is trying, and that is apparently just not true. Moreover, with the proliferation of publicly financed stadiums, fans have a right to DEMAND same. What’s gone on under Revenue Sharing is that teams realized they can make more REAL dollars (not those lies they tell Forbes) by not competing. And that’s resulted in the lack of faith and hope.

    All the attention with the forthcoming CBA has been paid to labor issues (relatively minor; really, payroll just isn’t that much an issue) and rule changes (ya, like John Henry cares if there’s a pitch clock). The REAL drama will be the change in Revenue Sharing computation Because that’s the REAL issue going forward.

    MLB won’t survive with half their teams “tanking” or endlessly proclaiming “the future is BRIGHT!!!”. Fans just aren’t that dumb.

    Reply
  25. hoof hearted

    6 years ago

    alot of hopefuls for the A’s and Angels. They dont have depth or front end quality SP; I feel they will underperform and that could be the difference between 2nd in the west and 4th for either.
    SP quality and depth in the west;
    Astros
    M’s
    Angles
    A’s
    Rangers

    Reply
  26. sufferforsnakes

    6 years ago

    Thanks for deleting my comment.

    1
    Reply
  27. Ejemp2006

    6 years ago

    Really? MLBTR Pirate and Mets fans always sing in unison the song “My team’s ownership ain’t tryin.” Ugly tune so no wonder Tim Dierkes doesn’t hear it! This year Arizona is deciding to sing it too.
    Alter list after hearing them sing? A lot?

    1
    Reply
  28. Gwynning

    6 years ago

    As a fan of baseball, I’m stoked to see genuine optimism from almost every team’s fans in here! Pods lucky to be 81-81 this year… but better keep an eye on us going forward. Astros-Nationals WS 2019

    2
    Reply
    • Moneyballer

      6 years ago

      You guys may do better than that. Winning is a mindset and you have a talented (and healthy) ballclub.

      1
      Reply
    • Ejemp2006

      6 years ago

      Scherzer vs Verlander game one? Sign me up for game watching! My hope is for October Trout but no faith there. So your predict is sound and would be for entertainment so I support.

      3
      Reply
      • its_happening

        6 years ago

        MLB may try to boost offense but the big ticket has and always be the ace vs. ace showdown.

        1
        Reply
  29. Moneyballer

    6 years ago

    Huge Bud Selig fan. My brother, a develop-mentally challenged adult male used to write letters to Selig giving his ideas on this and that, mostly on good locations for expansion teams and possible names for them. Selig wrote hand-written letters back to him on numerous occasions always showing respect and gratitude for my brother’s ideas. That meant so much to him and to me. There’s no greater joy than seeing happiness on the face of someone special that you love and Selig made that happen.

    2
    Reply
  30. timewalk42

    6 years ago

    Giants are going to be better than projected

    Reply
  31. JJB

    6 years ago

    Tim… can you tell us which teams have the most Christians? Is there a sabermetric stat for this? Jeff Todd, look into this and write a 10,000-word post. Thanks in advance.

    3
    Reply
  32. Cardinals17

    6 years ago

    I’m dumbfounded that attendance hasn’t hit a huge decline, all over Baseball. The souring ticket prices, refreshment prices makes it almost impossible for the average American family to attend. Parking prices are going through the roof too. In St. Louis, it will cost between $700-$1,000 to take a family of 4 to a game. And that would be in the seats in the upper decks because the scalpers buy up all of the great seat tickets and sell them on National ticket sales groups. Those groups have control of every major league stadiums premier seating for each game. Middle income families have to pay from double to Quadruple prices if they want a good seat. Those organizations Gould be banned from purchasing large quantities of premier seats. They are the ones who should only be permitted to buy the nose bleed section seats. Give the working class people and their kids a shot at getting regular priced premier seats at regular ticket prices!!!

    Reply
    • refereemn77

      6 years ago

      No one ever thinks this is a problem for NFL or NHL games. I understand there are a lot more games, but going to a Vikings game is like taking out a second mortgage.

      Reply
    • Nuggethoarder

      6 years ago

      There are plenty of games at Busch stadium where you can buy tickets for less than 15 USD each….You can get four people to a game for less than 200 USD if you put a little effort into it…and even less if you don’t buy beer/concessions/etc.

      You might not get to go to a Cardinals-Cubs series, or when Pujols is in town, etc. for that price, but it is possible. Yes, prices are going up. But to say you cannot take four people for less than $700 is a blatant exaggeration and untrue.

      Reply
  33. bravesfan

    6 years ago

    The entire NL east has hope… except the marlins lol

    Reply
  34. sf2win

    6 years ago

    I think there’s a meaningful difference between a team expressing faith & hope and it’s fan base having faith & hope.

    SF is an interesting example. After the past 2.5 years it’s difficult as a fan to have a lot of faith and hope (tho I do. And I’m eager laugh at all the haters in October, but I’ll also capitulate if they continue to flounder). That lack of faith and hope is based on perception from the outside of baseball.

    Then there are how the teams conduct themselves. Teams that openly cop to rebuilding or worse – tanking, clearly are devoid of faith and hope. The Giants are not one of those teams. They try to win every year. They may not be successful, but the effort is very transparent. After 2.5 years of sucking, they overhauled the FO and have made more transactions than likely any other team. Again, they may not be successful in their efforts, but they are trying.

    Teams trying to win is what is good for baseball. I argue that it is their trying that builds faith and hope, or at least just hope, in their team.

    Reply

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