Though it took longer than expected, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper got their big deals – Machado for a decade, Harper for a baker’s dozen. In the time between their signings, next winter’s top free agent got his big payday as well – the Rockies locked up Nolan Arenado for 8 years, $260MM. Free agency’s treatment of this winter’s big fish was always going to somewhat inform Arenado’s path, but the ramifications of all three superstars having planted their respective flags extends beyond San Diego, Philadelphia, and Colorado.
With Arenado’s abdication of his position atop 2019’s free agent class, Paul Goldschmidt inherits the throne. The Cardinals are now pressed with increased urgency to sign their new first baseman to an extension, writes Ben Frederickson of the St.Louis Post-Dispatch. Though Machado and Harper were both presumptive fits on the Cardinals roster, they never really approached the bidder’s circle. Of course, as Frederickson points out, signing top free agents hasn’t been the Cardinal modus operandi. What is very much in their DNA is trading for superstars and extending (or re-signing) them, two prime examples being Mark McGwire in 1997 and Matt Holliday in 2009.
Frederickson urges the Cards to dive headlong into their partnership with Goldy, who might prove amenable to a long-term guarantee after watching Machado, Harper, and so many others tread water in free agency. An extension won’t come cheap for one of the more more accomplished hitters of his generation, who boasts an absurd 144 career wRC+, six consecutive All-Star games, four Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, plus two silver medals and a bronze for MVP. And yet, there’s no ignoring the uncertainty created these past two frigid winters.
Still, the top free agents continue to make bank, and the same should be true for Goldschmidt. It was only a year ago this time that Scott Boras coaxed the Padres into giving Eric Hosmer, a far inferior player, $144MM over eight years. Frederickson cites his Post-Dispatch colleague Derrick Goold in putting forth five years, $150MM ($30MM AAV) as a potential framework for a Goldschmidt extension.
The biggest differentiator between the Machado/Harper/Hosmer trio and Goldschmidt, of course, is age. The ISE Baseball client can claim one of the most well-rounded skill sets in the league – but he will be entering his age-32 season as a free agent. Still, the smart play for the Cardinals here, Frederickson suggests, is locking in the .297/.398/.532 career hitter as soon as possible he is willing.
The Nationals have a similar conundrum on their hands with Scott Boras client Anthony Rendon. For most Boras clients, there would be little hope for an extension this close to free agency, but Boras and the Nationals have made this work before – just not in every case. The two sides have remained in contact about a Rendon extension for most of the last year, per MLB.com’s Jamal Collier. Similarly to Goldschmidt, the Arenado signing has an effect here, as Rendon jumps to the top spot among free agent third basemen.
Rendon’s been a foundational piece throughout the Harper/Strasburg era in DC, batting .285/.361/.469 over six seasons in DC. He creates 23% more runs than average in that span, and he’s been even more impressive lately with a 141 wRC+ in 2017 and 140 wRC+ last year. Defensively he’s as sure-handed as they come, if not quite with Arenado’s flash. If it weren’t for Arenado’s vice-grip on the gold glove award, Rendon would likely have some hardware of his own.
Take a stacked positional class that includes Arenado, Kris Bryant, Matt Carpenter, Justin Turner, Eugenio Suarez, add to it superstar contemporaries in Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Harper, plus a flourishing next generation of Nats stars like Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto – and Rendon’s excellence gets lost in the shuffle. Epitomizing Rendon’s place in the current canon is this: he has zero All-Star appearances despite three top-12 finishes in MVP voting. He did, however, win a Silver Slugger in 2014 and the NL Comeback Player of the Year award in 2016.
Rendon, who turns 29 in June, is set to earn $18.8MM in 2019, his last year before hitting the open market. With Arenado securing a $32.5MM AAV, what is Rendon’s value? He’s a year older and less decorated than Arenado, but Rendon’s 25.8 career fWAR compares favorably to Arenado’s 25.3 fWAR. Turning to a rate metric, Arenado’s put forth a 127 OPS+ over the past five seasons versus Rendon’s 122 OPS+ in the same span. Still, Arenado is pretty much universally regarded as the superior player.
Given their ages, neither Goldschmidt nor Rendon are likely to surpass Arenado’s contract in terms of length, but they could reach higher AAVs if their incumbent clubs take Frederickson’s advice: “Pour on the money. Scale back the years.”
Goldschmidt poll link for app users.
Rendon poll link for app users.
Arenado just made Rendon an extra 50 million.
Cardinals didn’t extend Holliday. He signed with them as a FA. Like what Rich Hill did with LA.
True. The difference between luring an outside free agent versus re-signing your own is *generally* greater than the difference between extending and re-signing your free agents. Right?
Is that proven? What about the guys that resign as FA’s with their last team because they couldn’t find as good of a deal on the open market, and the team shows their “loyalty” or “reward” for what that player has done in the past?
How confident are we that Holliday would have signed elsewhere if the Cardinals hadn’t traded for him first, all other things equal?
Subtle difference. They traded for him and resigned him.
But the Cardinals traded for him before resigning Holliday.
Rendon should but won’t make more than Arenado.
Goldschmidt’s one of the most dangerous hitters in the game. He also won’t make more than Arenado, but that is because of age and his position.
agree
Rendon is probably the most underrated player in baseball; he has played on a team with two clearly better players (Harper and Scherzer) but Rendon would be the star on almost any other team.
No. Other players aren’t driving the market anymore. Analytics is driving it. That’s why it’s been so “slow” the past two yrs. Arenado was very wise to take the Rockies deal.
Personally these contracts arent hitting the big money anymore for everyone is simply players are aging now that they arent able to use as many steroids that they want. Back in the high use of steroids teams had no problem giving money to the players close to the 40s because they knew that steroids were going to keep them productive.
Is “analytics” is what they’re using instead of “penny pinching billionaire owners” now?
Yes
It’s both, but the real problem is the system; analytics-minded front offices (which is a lot of them now) realize that paying a player in decline isn’t smart, and the system allows most players to be horribly underpaid during his first 6 seasons. The idea used to be that such players could be compensated fairly for their later seasons, to make up for the pre-arb/free agency years. But teams are smart enough now to not pay players in decline. What is necessary is a much shorter period of team control; maybe just one or two seasons. I would actually love to see the draft abolished and all players – high school seniors included – be free agents. Then we would get a real idea of what the value of players actually is, rather than the artificial suppression of salaries that exists now.
If the Cards extend Goldy 1st there’s no chance Boras will let Rendon not hit FA. Rendon would be the cream of the crop in FA.
So Rendon works for Boras?
Boras has negotiated plenty of extensions. He does as his client dictates. The likely reason that so many of his negotiations go for top dollar and the players arent extended is because he seems to attract that sort of player that wants that
Paul? Not much hes too old. Rendon? 2 yrs younger prob will get near Arenados deal.
I thought this place was about trade rumors. Period. Are they training us to become GMs ?
Larry….you must be new here or being sarcastic. Which is it?
Get back to us when your ‘Period.” is over.
Yours was a self-defeating comment.
Ok now I do miss the downvote button
Same
Oh I thought fans were scouts, GMs & agents all in one. At least that’s my take on reading most comments
I’d hasten to add ‘Mega-star Athletes’ to your list.
dude. seriously? it’s a baseball discussion site. “period”. lmao. I guess they should change the name to “Rumors, Signings, Trades, Injuries, Minor Leaguers, Prospects, Stats, Front Office, Deaths, Personal Issues and Other General Going On’s Around Major League Baseball.com” ?!? Get real. By your definition, anything announcing an actual signing shouldn’t be posted either because it’s technically not a rumor…. I’ll stick to the fine job Trade Rumors has been doing for a while now.
By your logic, the Bryce Harper and Manny Machado sweepstakes should’ve never been mentioned here because they weren’t trades.
If anything, these last 2 offsesasons have totally ruined the fun of the hot stove for fans. There used to be multiple moves a week now its just Heyman tweeting daily about Harper.
This now makes Rendon the clear #1 position player on next year’s market. He has to go FA now.
With Nolan as direct competition he would’ve been more likely to sign an extension.
Goldschmidt might have something to say about that.
Rendon’s defense carries it for me, but at least Rendon’s biggest competition won’t play the same position.
The Arenado deal makes it easier to pay both these players their money. I think it’s more of a qualifier than a driver
I agree with previous poster on Goldy, because he’s older it will be hard to beat out Arenado’s deal. Rendon is great but doesn’t have the power these other two have and HR’s seem to matter a lot when it comes to contract money
I think the poll needs one more option for each…. The Arenado deal will be used a qualifier to prove these other two are worth the money they eventually ask for
I didn’t even factor in age I just automatically assume a great fielding & hitting 3B is worth more than a 1B at any age
I think everyone can agree with you on that sentiment
Matt Carpenter isn’t really part of next year’s free agent class. The Cardinals have an option for 2020 that will almost certainly be picked up.
They’ll likely decline their 2020 option on Gyorko, though, so he could be a decent 3B fallback option for some teams.
So I have a question in the last couple of years the top free agents have taken a long time to sign someplace with a team. Has that had an affect on other contracts coming down in value as much as the owners market tapering off ?
rendon will be higher because nats will be falling over themselves to keep goldy from hitting FA. as a cards fan, i have no faith in cards offering an acceptable extension, they will lowball him and say they tried.