April 9: The Reds announced that Greene had his surgery today.
April 1: Top Reds pitching prospect Hunter Greene is scheduled for Tommy John surgery, the club announced to reporters including C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (Twitter link). He’ll miss all of the present season and quite likely some of the 2020 campaign as well.
It’s not exactly a huge surprise to hear this news, as Greene was known to have had some elbow issues that were being watched closely. The former second overall pick is just 19 years old and still has plenty of time to get back to full strength and work on trying to reach his immense ceiling.
Greene is known first and foremost for his arm strength, with a triple-digit heater out of high school. But that wouldn’t have been enough to command a record-setting draft bonus; the talented hurler also was prized for his athleticism, mechanics, command, and developing-but-promising secondary repertoire.
It hasn’t been smooth sailing since Greene reached the professional ranks. He didn’t make it into game action that much in his first year and then pitched to a 4.48 ERA at the Class A level in 2018. Of course, he also carried a promising blend of 11.7 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in his 68 1/3 innings last year, so there was plenty of evidence of the talent that led the Reds to invest so heavily in him.
Called it
If you want someone to get an injury that could derail his entire career just to gain some bragging points, you clearly dont have you priorities straight.
Where did I say I wanted him to get injured?
Yeah cause he was clearly rooting for him to get injured…. Good thing we have Superman over here to remind everyone that they have their priorities wrong and that hes so much better than us. Stfu you idiot.
Yeah, jumping to conclusions so you can virtue signal in the comment section is a MUCH higher priority!
Could you comment in English please?
Sorry, are you illiterate or just really terrible at being funny?
Wow…..you and thousands of others…..you psychic you
Good job, Ryan
Bad trainers
Greene was a High School Hot-Shot. Threw 100mph, hit well, was undoubtedly the most popular kid in school. Everyone,especially him, knew he was going to get millions. Then he held out for more precious money. Then he blows out his arm. Kids – and I mean this multiple ways, don’t overthrow. Padrefanaticfan – Good Call. How did I miss it? So obvious.
I hope he gets better and can bring it 100 mph again.
Good for you?
Let him hit some at DH later this year. Test out the bat.
He plays in the National League. But it could be in interleague play.
All minor league games have a DH
In higher levels the pitchers hit if it’s two NL teams.
He would have been drafted top 10 based solely on his hitting and SS play. Nice fall back option. He’ll be fine if he never throws another pitch.
If you want to argue that he’ll be “fine” either way based on the signing bonus he got, I’ll happily agree with you. But if you think it’s because he doesn’t need to pitch and can “just be a shortstop now,” I think you’re in for a rude awakening.
exactly! 19 with surgery is a bad sign
Want to hear something crazy? The team doctor for the Reds does a ton of Tommy John surgeries. He says that he is now doing them in kids as young as 13 years old.
He said that year-round travel teams, coupled with kids being pushed to be high-velocity throwers, and not pitchers, is what is causing this.
This kid was throwing over 100 as a teenager? Not too surprising the outcome.
To your point Ghost….”Youth and high school age pitchers made up a negligible fraction of Tommy John surgeries at the American Sports Medicine Institute in the mid-1990s, but 25 percent of their Tommy John surgeries by the mid-2000s. A study of national insurance records showed that between 2007 and 2011, the number of Tommy John surgeries increased about 4 percent each year overall, but 9 percent per year among high school age pitchers. More than 50 percent of all Tommy John surgeries in that study were on 15- to 19-year-olds.”
mlb.com/pitch-smart/tommy-john-faq
I may be mistaken but I believe a more recent study placed the percentage of HS pitchers at 70% now. I will have to try and find that study again
Lol , they should have trade it him and senzel to the marlins for the catcher
Considering the marlins received 1 top prospect thatd be such an overpay. Horrible suggestion.
Should have offered Greene Barnhart and another prospect in the 11-15 range.
I trust the expert opinion of the guy referencing ‘the catcher’.
I, personally, think they also should have signed the outfielder. But I’m not the expert.
Actually I think this is Rickey Henderson’s burner account
Rickey’s only burners are the afterburners on Rickey’s wheels, which made him the Greatest of All Time. Rickey don’t need anonymity. Rickey stole more bases than both league leaders added together in 5 different seasons. Rickey didn’t need steroids either, just one hundred percent pure, beautiful Rickey.
Bum bum bum bum another bites the dust! Bum bum bum bum another bites the dust! And another one gone another one gone another one bites the dust! Uh! Hey! I’m gonna get you too!
Another one one bites the dust!
he got a signing bonus for more money than you will make in your life as the best high school player in the world at that time. but yeah….he’s a bum
Not calling him a bum…. it’s the bass of the song if you’ve ever heard before… z
Swing and a miss.
He’s not calling him a bum.
He’s just trying to be clever. Poorly.
Whoosh…Way to make yourself look like a fool
Damn
Serious question here. Who’s concerned hes a bust?
I don’t think we’ve seen enough of him to make that call yet, personally…but I’m hoping TJ doesn’t make it inevitable
Something like 85% of pitchers return from Tommy John without diminished stuff. Wouldn’t be too concerned. Were I a Reds fan I’d be glad they are fixing the problem. The real downside to this is it pushes back his ETA.
padresfanaticfan
The 80%-85% number comes from pitchers who recover to pitch at least one game. A sustained career is much lower. Here’s some studies that explain the fallacy
tht.fangraphs.com/tommy-john-surgery-success-rates…
espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/12648769/what-missed-tommy…
I stand corrected. It’s still not the demon it used to be.
The quality of the operation has improved since its inception in the mid seventies, hopefully that gives him a better chance for a full recovery.
Does anyone know of a more current study? This is interesting but now 4 years old and it would be interesting to see if it has materially changed with new procedures and more data and time. to see results.
He throws very hard but also very straight. He was probably going to need a mechanical adjustment anyways (different arm slot) to effectively pitch to hitters in the upper levels. Maybe TJS will end up being a benefit since it’s sometimes easier to (re)learn new mechanics than adjust existing ones.
Clevinger had it done just before the Indians traded a worn out Vinnie Pestano for him. He’s turned out just fine for the Tribe.
It turns out bodies respond to invasive surgeries differently
Lmaoooo there is absolutely 0 concern he’s a bust, he’s had 1 full season and put up good numbers for an 18 y/o
1 surgical procedure can very easily lead to multiple procedures…… I’d say there’s room for concern even as a teenager.
Yes, but you could really say that about any pitcher who has even just felt a little tweak in their arm. I don’t really worry about Honeywell or Puk as potential busts, so I wouldn’t worry about Greene either. Not until he shows he can’t come back or loses his ability.
It’s been 2 years…
Pretty much everyone thinks he’s a bust. So it’s not a novel thought or anything.
That’s not true whatsoever. He’s 19 years old who sustained an injury unfortunately like many many pitchers and players. He’s 5 years away to even be considered a bust. Nice try troll go crawl under a bridge
Busts aren’t rated as a top 50 prospect in every reputable rating service out there. Strike two bush.
Byron Buxton was number 1 for a few years.
There’s tons of top 50 busts. He’s rates so high because he was drafted at the top of the draft. Most scouts who’ve actually seen how insanely straight his stuff is think he’s a bust. Once again go ahead and play make believe if it makes you feel better, but this guy isn’t good.
Yes, we can all break out our all time bust lists. Baseball has more of them than in any sport.
My issue with the bush comment is his universal statement that “pretty much everyone thinks (Greene) is a bust”. Some people think that if they say crap with conviction it makes it true.
“Pretty much everyone” on this site knows how ridiculous it is to write off an insanely talented pitcher who’s only 19 years old.
He was a top 100 prospect because of where he was drafted. He became a top 50 guy after his short season results. Please list the scouts who think he’s a bust; it should be easy, as well as lengthy, because it’s most of them.
You know what makes me feel better? Calling out people who make ridiculous statements.
I’m not…most pitchers come back throwing harder after the surgery. He’s 19, better to have this done at a young age. It’s not as if he was going to contribute at the BL level for a few years anyway. He’ll be fine.
titanic struggle……..
“53% of college athletes incorrectly believe that pitching speed would improve following Tommy John surgery (Ahmad et al.). Similar to overall performance, players do not throw harder after Tommy John surgery than they did before the procedure. Most doctors have concluded that in cases where pitchers who have thrown harder post-surgery, it was predominantly due to the quality of their rehabilitation and improved strength and conditioning.”
mlb.com/pitch-smart/tommy-john-faq
All a successful surgery does is return stability to the elbow. It’s not a magic cure…..
The American Journal of Sports Medicine did a study a few years ago..they studied 147 TJS pitchers…..
20% never returned
13% returned to picth fewer than 10 games
67% managed to pitch 10 games in a season after TJS
50% ended up on the DL with arm/shoulder troubles
Average ERA before 4.23….after…4.67 – BAA before .249…..and after .257 – WHIP before… 1.368 and after…. 1.432 – % of pitches in the strike zone….51.9 – and after…. 49.6…. Innings pitched before 94.3…. and after…. 77.3 – % of fastball thrown before 63.9 and after 59 – Avg. fastball velocity before 91.2…and after 90.8
Jon Roegele, a sabermetrician, who runs the database Tommy John Surgery List, did extensive research and found one out of every two major league pitchers who has UCL reconstruction will throw fewer than 100 innings the rest of his career.
outstanding post catman
Thanks. There are so many misconceptions out there. There are still parents and youth coaches who believe that if their kid gets TJS at an early age it will help him avoid it in the future. Stuff like that is just not true. As a matter of fact TJS revision surgery has been on the rise since about 2014.
The main cause of increased TJS since 2000 is parents and youth coaches. Parents allow children to pitch year round, they believe the coaches have the kids best interest at heart, when in reality they are destroying arm with heavy workloads. By the time the kid reaches draft age, the damage is done. Many are just a time bomb waiting to go off.
Yikes.
This is actually great news for the Reds and their fans. Pretty much every hard throwing young pitcher will need one at some point, WAY better to get their TJ surgery BEFORE the service clock starts.
Well not really. He could have made it to the majors at age 20 or so, but now he will have to wait till 22/23.
After he recovers from this TJ, he will be 22 or so and STILL have 6 (7 if they hold him down for two weeks) years of control. Basically ideal.
Having him get hurt after his service clock starts and losing two of those years of control is a much worse outcome for the Reds or any small market team.
Getting Tommy John doesn’t stop future arm blowouts. What exactly is the benefit of him being injured now? Nothing.
Most guys don’t get two. A High % of these hard throwing guys coming up are getting TJ. IF he had to get one right now is better than later.
Talk about a big blow.
Way to delay the inevitable Reds. An F’ing caveman knew he needed the surgery. So stupid to wait for a young guy like this.
You’re 20/20 hindsight is astounding, Dr. Bush.
Nothing hindsight about it. It was clear when originally announced this is the route that was necessary. But go ahead and call me a Dr and act like no one thought this was necessary if it makes you feel better.
How dare the Reds and Greene try to avoid major invasive surgery to his golden arm. What a bunch of jerks
Lmao. Go Joe Shmoe, Go.
Every time a guy tries to avoid the surgery he ends up having it soon anyway. Especially a hard throwing guy like him. That’s my whole point. It’s not like his ligament issue he’s had a while was going anywhere.
Right, every time Dr Bush. Except Lorenzen and Disco went the nonsurgical route and both are back and pitching well for the Reds.
Called this guy and bust and looking more like it. Sadly wasnt gonna live up to the hype.
How’s the Angels rotation looking?
this guy is a dodgers fan how should he know
No, he argues with me every off season about how good the Angels rotation is. And every season he is way wrong.
There are young players who grind it out and naturally rise to the top, and Greene who had access to any trainers, promotors and advisors he needed to make him successful. He’s a great kid and obviously has talent, just not MLB level talent.
What’s the big deal. It’s now just another injury, enabled by the game they play. They call it Tommy John surgery because John was able to complete his fantastic career after having the surgery.
Twins chose Royce Lewis #1.
Good, or lucky, choice – it appears.
Royce will hopefully be the Correa to our buxton pick. I’m thinking now buxton is hopefully coming around. But at the time bux was one an all the boards.
Twins were never seriously considering him in the first place so it’s kind of irrelevant. Better to compare Lewis w wright or McKay
Ok I’m finding it very hard to believe that all these pitchers magically are tearing this ligament all of a sudden. Ohtani comes here and quickly needs it. Makes me wonder
he already had arm issues in 2017 if I’m not mistaken.
He did
Even with innings and pitch counts being monitored pitchers are still going down. The overuse excuse years ago was/is not the solution to an ongoing problem.
Methinks it is just throwing too hard for too long and the focus on spin rates etc. That puts a LOT of strain on forearm and elbow pieces/parts… there likely is no solution.
Can’t say it wasn’t gonna happen.
Well, this sucks.
Hey MLB, babying the young pitchers is not working!!! Too many of them pitch year round as children, and the arms are basically falling off!
He’ll never make the show. Why bother? How much did he sign for? Plenty. He’s saying High School was fun guys – work was short and sweet!
Though a questionable move at the time. They way things have shaken out. I think the twins made the right call by drafting Lewis over green number 1
Future Texas Ranger. I bet Jon Daniels has already called the Reds.