It’s easy to overreact to bullpen implosions, particularly when they cost a team a seemingly surefire lead. Last night’s meltdown at Fenway not only cost the Red Sox a win, but played to some of the major fears entering the season.
As Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes, the collapse against a tepid Indians lineup featured messy appearances from Ryan Brasier, Marcus Walden, and Travis Lakins. While Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes weren’t charged with any runs, they didn’t really help with the ugliest stat line to emerge from the evening: the Boston pen recorded just one strikeout against seven walks.
The bullpen was the source of much consternation when camp broke. In particular, many worried about the failure to add established arms to a late-inning unit that bid adieu to closer Craig Kimbrel.
As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk wrote in reviewing the club’s offseason efforts, the “nightmare scenario” some posited was an overreaction. But he also noted that the decision not to bring in additional high-leverage arms — which would also have deepened the middle relief unit — was a “risky strategy.” After all, Polishuk reasoned, “settling for even a middle-of-the-pack bullpen for a few months could cost the Red Sox” in a tight division race.
Every win matters, and it’d always be preferable to have another elite arm to call upon. But after observing the Boston relief unit for one-third of the season, it’s hard to call it a problem. Combined, the group carries a solid 3.92 ERA that ranks in the top third leaguewide. Fielding-independent pitching metrics concur with that general placement.
Have things gotten worse of late? The unit has recorded as many blown saves in the past two weeks (4) as have the Nationals, but other teams have more and that’s not necessarily a worthwhile metric to go by in evaluating overall bullpen health. Despite grading in the middle of the pack on the season, Sox relievers have suddenly become walk-happy over the past two weeks with a league-worst 13.3% BB rate. Still, that seems like a short-sample blip. Overall results have actually ticked up over the past month, with the relief corps combining for a 3.21 ERA.
If a true, overarching issue has cropped up it may relate to Ryan Brasier. Expected to function as a core part of the high-leverage group after last year’s surprise emergence, Brasier has fallen on hard times of late. As Speier notes, the righty has been tagged for five long balls in his last 22 2/3 innings of action. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com looked further at Brasier’s struggles.
But even if Brasier has stepped back, the Red Sox have seen others emerge. Barnes has doubled down on his strong 2018 season. Though he’s allowing too many walks, Workman has done the same, carrying stepped-up swinging-strike and strikeout numbers. And Walden has been excellent in his first full season in the majors, with a pleasing mix of K’s and grounders to support a 2.05 ERA.
To be sure, the remainder of the outfit isn’t as strong, but that’s a nice trio. Heath Hembree has been useful and Brasier still holds out hope of a bounceback. The team’s rotating cast of other relief pitchers has yet to find sustained success, but that’s a common issue around the league.
It’s certainly not difficult to see the merits of a mid-season acquisition or two. But really, who didn’t see that coming for a team that obviously prioritized other areas in the offseason? What’s more surprising is that the assembled group has performed so well for such a sustained stretch. Most any relief unit will produce moments like last night; plenty of others haven’t been capable of the sturdy results produced to this point by Boston’s hurlers.
Better still, further improvement might be found without a budget or farm-busting move for a high-end closer. The one area where the righty-heavy Sox have clearly struggled is in retiring opposing left-handed hitters. The relief unit has been tagged for a 5.31 ERA and 1.70 HR/9 by southpaw batters. Adding even one quality situational lefty could help smooth out this bump and make it easier for skipper Alex Cora to get the ball to his most reliable relievers in the late innings.
Alex Colome, Raisel Iglesias, and Shane Green are all likely going to be available at some point in trade talks this season. All of which are affordable late inning arms with plenty of closer experience.
Reds ain’t trading Raisel.
Well even if the Reds don’t put him up in talks, Colome, and especially Green should come up during the deadline.
Givens, too. Although he looks more like gasoline than water recently…
Still depends on what the Sox might offer in return….and their problem is that if they indeed trade from the farm (assuming they have the assets these other teams would be interested in), they’re committed to a major league roster that is only going to get not just more expensive, enormously more expensive in the next 2-3 years…..see Martinez, Betts etc.
Just not that easy a solution for the Red Sox this year it would seem.
I don’t think that Iglesias will be available either via trade as the Red Sox don’t have the obvious minor league assets to pull off that kind of trade….the Red pitching this year, whether starting or relieving is probably their greatest strength.
The other 2 guys might be again, it depends on what the Red Sox would be willing to offer in a trade.
I would love it if the Tigers could get Casas. They don’t have anything resembling a prospect at 1B.
The way they’re going, Boston will be sellers at the deadline not buyers.
Hey It’s draining winning championships over and over again. I know playing one wildcard game seems exciting…. just multiply that by a dozen.
Bias aside, I’m not sure what DD saw in this bullpen coming into the season. If I’m a Sox fan and I see subtractions from the bullpen without additions, I’m upset. Retracting and expecting the same results is not very viable.
For sure. DD did the same thing in Detroit, but I’m not putting this all on DD… there were contracts and things in place that made bringing back CK impossible, not to mention the draft compensation they hoped for if he signed elsewhere. It was a good plan from that perspective.
The Sox have known for 2-3 years now that 2019 and 2020 were going to be an issue in terms of figuring out what this team would look like in 2021. They extended Sale. They extended Bogy. They did what they could within the confines.
I think the hardest pill to swallow here is that Mookie Betts will not be in Boston in 2021 unless the Red Sox start to make roster moves now to make room for his contract. Its not unlike the Yankees a few years ago when they were already all-in and had to make some tough decisions. I hope that Dombrowski can be as smart and on-point with his moves as Cashman was in New York. But there are going to be some tough, tough decisions ahead that will make or break the franchise for 5-6 years.
I don’t think CK would be willing to resign in Boston I believe he feels disrespected by them for not wanting him IMO
The other 29 teams showed him the same “respect.” Kimbrel wants money and lots of it and I doubt he cares what colors he wears if he gets it…
If multi year deals that he would accept, he enjoyed his Boston teammates and his family might be happy to continue living there. I can see a one year prorated deal and then he tries again with no compensation attached.
If multi year deals that he would accept aren’t offered, he enjoyed his Boston teammates and his family might be happy to continue living there. I can see a one year prorated deal and then he tries again with no compensation attached.
Boston will not even make him an offer. No chance.
Very well said, my friend! From what you’ve said, I suppose they simply had to go into this season short on one end or another and, given the trend in baseball, bullpens seem to figure themselves out with all of the random budding stars and single-A dudes throwing 98.
Brasier and Barnes both throw in the mid to high 90s, as do many relievers, but velocity doesn’t beat anyone these days. It takes location, changing speeds, and an out-pitch, which Brasier simply doesn’t have.
What’s the point of extending Sale or any other front-line starter if management makes such an inconsequential effort at building a bullpen? In this day and age, starters don’t go more than 6, if even that far, and we’ve seen what happens to great starting efforts when a crappy bullpen is called on to hold a lead. It’s practically counter-productive to invest heavily in starters and relegate the bullpen to afterthought status.
The Sox might be better off NOT waiting for Greene/Iglesias/Givens/whoever, since teams rarely rush to dump players for very little return.
Despite that neither exudes confidence, the Sox could DFA Josh Smith, demote Hector Velasquez and Travis Lakins, promote Jenrry Mejia and sign Fernando Rodney (for a pro-rated MLB minimum salary with Oakland still paying the bulk).
It might not be any better, but the only real risk is losing 31yo career minor leaguer Josh Smith…
I’m not sure who the Sox could offer up that won’t be beat by someone else’s offer on the top arms that will be available. I’d love to say its an option, but even guys like Chavis and Hernandez are now important to the immediate future.
Dalbec. I would think Chavis and Devers could have the corner IF spots secured. Even if they keep Chavis at 2b, it’s very easy to get another 1b who can outproduce Dalbec…
It is just ugly out there. It’s easy to look at a few good games in a row from the pen and say see, we don’t need a closer. But this is not the first blown game by the pen and no lead feels safe.
The luxury cap penalty might just be too much for this team to swallow (more the draft slot issues), but if they don’t find a way to add another arm and hope someone like Hernandez can work as a swing-man (maybe?) they are screwed. But they have to add 2 or 3 pieces and subtract 2 or 3 pieces and have little wiggle room to get that done.
With Pedroia done, Chavis is up for the year even if he cools off. There’s no expendable pieces on this roster or in the system that could be moved for anything that resembles a resolution to this problem.
I see 3 options:
1) Run with what you have and accept it won’t work in October.
2) Add CK back to the team and blow past the threshold, knocking them back in the draft and extending the time its going to take to rebuild the farm.
3) Hope this team falls out of contention so that you could move some big pieces on contract years at the deadline, bring in close to ready prospect assets and aim for a quick rebuild, much as the Yankees did.
Only #2 ends well for the 2019 Red Sox, but I’m not sure that’s the best option long-term.
The Red Sox are NOT going to give Craig Kimbrel 4 years times 15 + million dollars. Some team will and it won’t be the Sox.
Red Sox don’t have the bank for Kimbrel. He’s gonna be a brave. You mean if they’re playing in October.
Bullpen usage is a problem. They are averaging 3.80 IP per game but one of the bullpen has already pitched in 27 of the 55 games played while two have pitched in 25. Walden didn’t male an appearance until team game 11 but he already has pitched 30.2 innings. In about 30% of the games the starters have failed to go five innings.
Isn’t the starters stats misleading based on how the year started? For whatever the reason, the bullpen is already taxed.
I’d like to see where those pitches were last night. The ump can alter the outcome with one bad call per at bat and that happens a few times a game. But this sounds more problematic. They are relying on the technical pitch analysis of some of these bargain bin pitchers to get results and it works sometimes. But be careful of the kind of situations you put some of these guys in, especially late in ballgames. Kind of reminds me of teams of the distant past when the Red Sox would get to the World Series and have to use guys like Ken Brett, Roger Moret, Calvin Schiraldi, and others with limited big league and big game experience. Heck, they’re the most successful franchise in baseball this millennium. You can’t always win in the modern game, things change too fast.
Brasier gave up home runs to the two worst hitters in the Cleveland lineup. It’s not the umpire’s fault…
I saw the game live. It was very very concerning.
This team has been bringing it’s C game or D all year.
You would never know this was the same team that won in 2018.
It seems each week they find a different way to lose.
It’s hard to say how to fix this as one week the hitting sucks or another weeks its the defense or the starting pitching or the relief pitching.
The only consistent plus this year has been the hitting of Devers.
If I’m John Henry (Owner) and see my highest team payroll in baseball play like this and see my AL East rival Tampa, with one of the lowest payrolls, playing better I’d start making changes ASAP.
Red Sox have known they have a “closer” problem since Kimbrel and Kelly left at the end of last season. They don’t have any lefties in the pen and most of them are the same kind of pitcher…so opposing teams don’t have to do much homework to know who they’ll be facing when the starters are out….but Dombrowski is a smart guy, he’ll figure it out….just like he did in Detroit.
I’m beginning to question DD’s judgement when he signs Eovaldi rather than Kimbrel this past off season with limited funds.
If I had to guess I would say he may go for both Keuchel and Kimbrel right in here now at the draft to appease the Boston fans.
But that’s unlikely they will do either with the current high payroll level they have.
It may cost them bucks and it’s a gamble to add both players but it may provide a shot of adrenaline to this team.
It’s my only suggestion other than to fire Alex Cora and I don’t see them doing that.
So I’m thinking the most likely outcome is to shed people at the trade deadline and punt on the 2019 season.
I just can’t believe what I’m seeing.
They guys aren’t even in some games.
i agree…plus consider this….at the end of this season, if not sooner,…
JD Martinez – gone, will likely opt out
Porcello – FA
Moreland – FA
Pearce – FA
Holt – FA
Nunez – FA
Leon – FA
Individually these guys may not add up to much but as whole it matters. Next year, this will be a new team….and Betts is going to FA after 2020.
So you think Martinez is going to opt out of the last of his higher paying years and become a free agent when last time, he didn’t get all that much action and was 2 years younger and coming off a career-best season?
Leon has one more arb year because of the outright
Who knows but this is yet another reason to unload JDM at the trade deadline.
Let someone else take that risk.
And if the Red Sox are fading in July it makes total sense to move JDM for some good young prospects..
Did you see the way Chavis came up and has been tearing the cover off of the ball?
Makes you wonder if we have some young talent in the minors that is hungry or can get some young hungry talent from someone else?
And for a lot less money.
And let me also add that the NYY are in 1st place with a shell of a team and it can only get better for them once they start getting IL players back.
The way it looks right now if they make they playoffs at all it will be barely as the 2nd wild card spot.
And I would find it hard to see them going deep into the playoffs baring good luck.
I’m wondering if they are going to shed players at the trade deadline and try and rebuild for the future.
Hey but I believe we got tony larussa in the front office
” it can only get better for them once they start getting IL players back”
You think they will improve on their .648 winning percentage? You think they will end up with more than 105 wins? Really? I would take that bet in a heartbeat.
It doesn’t matter relatively if they win 105. They just have to win more than the Red Sox.
Right now it looks like the Yankees and Tampa have a better shot of winning over 90 games than the Red Sox.
Don’t you agree?
I mean the Red Sox could catch fire.
We know they have the horses.
But based upon what I,m looking at I don’t see it this year.
So if they don’t catch fire and get their butts back in this chase then it’s logical to see them unloading at the trade deadline.
They can use some good young talent, in the minors, to add to their already good young talent in the majors.
That’s what the smart teams do.
Who knows whether JDM can do better if he opts out after 2019?
But why take that chance?
You can probably get something really good for him.
And what’s the point of keeping him if you loose him after 2019 and you’re not in it in 2019?
With Karinchak and Sandlin fast approaching the majors, Brad Hand might be available soon.
This is all Dumbo’s fault, that idiot got way to much credit to begin with for trades that I could’ve made with the trade chips Sox had at the time.
When it comes to making smart trades that works out in our favor he hasn’t made one.
I mean he gave up 2 prospects and T.Shaw for a bag of rocks.
Now this off season he had a chance to correct that idiotic Thornburg trade and he just sat back and did nothing. He must of thought that the Sox could use their starters out the pen in the regular season like they did in the post season, I mean what else would be the excuse for doing nothing? How could he expect just Barnes & Brasier to carry the pen the whole year? Barnes arm is gonna fall off haftway through the season like it did last year. and not to mention if one was to have a bad year then what? And thats exactly whats happening with Brasier, he looks no where close to last year’s Braiser. I guess Dumbo thought we can make it to the playoffs with this pen but he is DEAD WRONG!
It sucks to see the starters pitch a great game and the pen just blows the win for them. This is getting old hella fast and Dumbo & Cora our acting like there’s nothing to worry about, but guess what there’s alot to be worried about. This is unacceptable for the paying fan.
Hey dumbo put tony larussa in the front office
Fill in the blank.
To fix their bullpen problems, the Red Sox acquire Ken Giles from the Blue Jays in exchange for… ?
No one. The Sox don’t have the prospects to acquire a quality reliever
Reds will not trade their closer unless they are overwhelmed. He is under a favorable long term contract. Also Amir Garrett not near free agency’s
Reds are trending up and will not change bullpen that has been lights out.
The Red Sox don’t have a championship bullpen but there is a limit to what ownership will pay and since the Red Sox are going to over the max again for the second year in a row it’s going to be tough to add anyone.
The Red Sox brass is just trying to strike lightening in a bottle again with some of these guys. I’m sure DD knew this could be a problem he just didn’t have any real way to deal with it.
This is going to be a season where they just try and get in the playoffs once in they will be a very dangerous team. In the playoffs they can use there starters in other roles and mask some of the bullpen problems.
I’m sure DD will look to be adding a bullpen arm it’s just the cost will probably be high. Contrary to popular belief the Red Sox do have the assets to get an upgraded arm if they choose to go that route. DD has shown the willingness to move potential for current MLB assets pretty much more then any other GM.
Which is why I said the the Eovaldi contract made less sense for the Red Sox than resigning Kimbrel.
That $68M that Eovaldi got could have gone to Kimbrel.
And last nights game seeing the whole bullpen implode in the 9th would not have happened if they had Kimbrel.
They have a really spotty bullpen with no one you can consistently count on.
But even with that said Mookie, Benintendi and Bradley are all under performing with the bats.
This same lack of performance occurred in 2017.
Don’t know why these guys are up and down with the bats year to year?
Perhaps The Red Sox could trade JDM for Edwin Diaz NYM closer?
This should be good for both teams?
It would open up some payroll space for Boston and give Boston a great young closer for years to come.
JDM would also likely get a raise being in NY and the NYM may be able to renegotiate JDM’s contract and lock him up for some additional years.
Especially since Cespedes broke his ankles.
The Mets need a cleanup hitter behind Alonso.
And Boston needs a closer.
Perhaps NYM could even sign Kimbrel to replace Diaz?
Boston may even sign Keuchel with the money they free up on JDM?
Although Keuchel makes more sense for NYY to pickup.
Mets would never consider that deal.
Sox have to feel good about saving themselves 100M
Bull pen sucks, no repeat this year.