Todd, once again you are way out of touch … it’s hilarious how MLBTR “experts” like yourself low-ball the expected trade value of Bumgarner. Why in the world would the Giants trade him (a proven post-season ace) for a so-so return. If that’s the case, why wouldn’t they just hold on to him and give him a qualifying offer? If they do trade him, they will get a big haul back – and you experts will be signing a different tune.
So you are an “expert”? Because you seem to believe you know better than those at MLBTR. Are they wrong sometimes? Sure. Are “experts” at other sites always correct? No. Have you ever been wrong. I’d put several monies on it that you have been multiple times.
Bumgarner is basically going to give a team about a half season of 2/3 SP quality (hopefully) starts. Which means about 16 of them. The return should be decent, but nowhere near what Boston gave up for Sale.
Out of touch with what, exactly? Am I the one that has failed to keep up with the way teams value baseball players? We’ll see what happens — I’m just giving my opinion and we haven’t seen the market make its valuation yet — but consider:
– MadBum has been solid but hardly his vintage self … 50th ranked SP by fWAR, for example
– MadBum is affordable but hardly free ($12MM annual contract) … that’s cheaper, but not wholly out of range of what the Braves paid for a not-dissimilar pitcher in Dallas Keuchel, without having to give up any prospect value
Bum a career 2.11 ERA in post-season, 0.25 ERA in WS (102IP and 36IP respectively so not exactly a small sample size). Keuchel you ask? 3.31 ERA in post-season, 5.23 in the WS. That, my friend is what teams that want to trade for Bum will take into account.
Oh, you say that was long ago? Not so much, as Bum has not lost any velocity and definitely always turns it up in the post-season and is still only 29. We shall see indeed what they get.
statman…………
You seem to be the SF version “madman tx” who swore that any team getting Hamels last year would have to pony up several top 100 prospects.
Live in the real world dude. A huge haul for Bum after the last few seasons isn’t gonna happen.
If I am wrong I will personally eat crow on these boards, do you have the cohones do do the same or all you all talk?
Really? I think you’re memory is lacking just a little bit of detail. Yes he gave up that HR but he did have a quality outing and oh yeah, the Giants prevailed in that game in extras. Oh, but other than that pretty good memory.
statman…….
I’ll ask again. A huge haul for Bum after the last few seasons isn’t gonna happen.
If I am wrong I will personally eat crow on these boards, do you have the cohones do do the same or all you all talk?
I get what you are saying Jeff however at the same time you are looking at Bumgarner in a vacuum.and I think there are other variables can and will dictate what his ultimate package is
1 SFG will be paying down all or substantially all of Bum’s deal, this is a no brainer for the Giants as they are looking to maximize the return on Bum and every person they trade
2 While analytics and past markets might provide some sort of baseline for the prospect ask, actual supply and demand will provide the real world range. So while he does have a limited NTC, his choices appear financially motivated vs lack of desire to go to a market.
3 From a pure rental standpoint, he does stand out among the crowd, Wheeler? Marcus Stroman and Minor in TX are controlled thru 2020. Cleveland is a x-factor on what they do with Kluber and Bauer who also have 2 yrs, that latter via arb, Don’t they keep that core intact and try again in 2020 and sell next deadline if it didn’t work out?
4 Teams who could be looking to add, TB, MIN are not on the NTC, PHI, ATL, BOS, MIL, STL, CHI, HOU and NYY all are on
5 SFG are open for sale and in a vacuum/individually a few desirable pieces. Bum obviously, Will Smith and Waston as LH bullpen pieces, I’d be really curious if they’d listen on Moronta. Vogt and Sandavol are interesting bench pieces.. I think there’s a potential for Bum to get traded with a 2nd minor piece (not Smith, maybe Watson) as way to alter their return, possibly. SF has $ and CBT space
I think the whole wild card to this year is the absence of a waiver trade line and how teams deal with this. Basically a teams 40 man roster has to have the depth to to last 3 months. from 7/31 thru the WS. This has to have some ripple effect on win-now 40 man rosters when it comes to trades..
Those are good points, truly. Thank you for responding in this manner. All things I’d consider closely if I was trying to make a strong and conclusive point about his true trade value.
Really, I was just trying to respond to this notion that I (or we) somehow have it in for Bumgarner by suggesting he isn’t going to return elite prospects. If you look at what I actually wrote in the chat, I didn’t do that in the least. We are talking about a non-elite rental starter. I believe every contender has the prospect firepower to acquire a player of that sort.
All I said was that it’s not like trading for Sale … which understandably required multiple, elite prospects. Sale was acquired in mid-prime with multiple seasons left on a cheap extension. That’d be like trading Bumgarner after 2016. It’s beyond obvious he’s worth far, far less now with what has occurred in the interim, the increase in age, and the loss of contractual control.
In recent chats I’ve noticed some complaints about MLBTR writers responding in the comments section of their own posts. I think those complaints are nonsense. Any writers that don’t want to respond are making their own decision and there is nothing wrong with that. A writer who posts a solid article has the right to defend his position. Keep it up! I don’t want to here any more slack about writers responding to replies in comments about their own posts.
Why would the Giants move him? Because if they don’t they get nothing when he leaves except maybe a draft pick? Which is a totally unknown quantity since they don’t even know who will be available that far out?
I don’t even pretend to be an expert an I can see how bleeding obvious the logic there is.
He’s been a midling pitcher this year with no signs of rebounding. obviously the giants will ask for a lot and someone will probably overpay, but it will be an overpay for sure when it happens.
Yankees fans views of baseball economics are frequently ridiculous. Cubs fans are sometimes just as bad. On an MLBTR chat I once watched a Cubs fan suggest that the Braves would be willing to trade Dansby Swanson for Jason Heyward… and this was after Heywerd drastically underperformed with the Cubs but before his deflated early season hot streak. It’s like some fans think that if their team pays top dollar for a player that ends up being terrible for them, everyone else will still think he is a good player. The Braves traded Heyward for a reason and Shelby Miller wasn’t the only reason. Heyward still had relative hype. Every serious Braves fan knew that J-Hey had serious Back problems. Not spasms or muscle injuries but obvious spinal cord injuries that he has had since high school. I was honestly shocked by the way he performed his only year in St. Louis. Dansby was and is making less than $1 Mill a year while J-Hey is making $23 Mill a year for the next several years. No team in baseball is going to straight up give away a much younger #1 overall pick in exchange for any teams overpaid obvious mistake.
That was not meant to disparage all Yankees or Cubs fans. Some of my best friends are very knowledgeable Yankees and Cubs fans. From my personal experience I have met many frequent Yankees/Cubs/RedSox/Mets fans that think that way. All of those teams have many more thoughtful fans that do not think that way. I know this because I lived in each of those places and the true fans understand the reality of baseball.
Todd, once again you are way out of touch … it’s hilarious how MLBTR “experts” like yourself low-ball the expected trade value of Bumgarner. Why in the world would the Giants trade him (a proven post-season ace) for a so-so return. If that’s the case, why wouldn’t they just hold on to him and give him a qualifying offer? If they do trade him, they will get a big haul back – and you experts will be signing a different tune.
So you are an “expert”? Because you seem to believe you know better than those at MLBTR. Are they wrong sometimes? Sure. Are “experts” at other sites always correct? No. Have you ever been wrong. I’d put several monies on it that you have been multiple times.
Bumgarner is basically going to give a team about a half season of 2/3 SP quality (hopefully) starts. Which means about 16 of them. The return should be decent, but nowhere near what Boston gave up for Sale.
You go batty!
Out of touch with what, exactly? Am I the one that has failed to keep up with the way teams value baseball players? We’ll see what happens — I’m just giving my opinion and we haven’t seen the market make its valuation yet — but consider:
– the QO draft compensation isn’t that valuable for the Giants mlbtraderumors.com/2017/08/offseason-primer-the-ne…
– MadBum has been solid but hardly his vintage self … 50th ranked SP by fWAR, for example
– MadBum is affordable but hardly free ($12MM annual contract) … that’s cheaper, but not wholly out of range of what the Braves paid for a not-dissimilar pitcher in Dallas Keuchel, without having to give up any prospect value
– recent precedent: mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/dodgers-to-acquire-yu-d…
Keuchel a similar pitcher to Bum? Really?
Bum a career 2.11 ERA in post-season, 0.25 ERA in WS (102IP and 36IP respectively so not exactly a small sample size). Keuchel you ask? 3.31 ERA in post-season, 5.23 in the WS. That, my friend is what teams that want to trade for Bum will take into account.
Oh, you say that was long ago? Not so much, as Bum has not lost any velocity and definitely always turns it up in the post-season and is still only 29. We shall see indeed what they get.
Last time he was in a postseason series, he have up a JACK to Arrieta and took the L.
statman…………
You seem to be the SF version “madman tx” who swore that any team getting Hamels last year would have to pony up several top 100 prospects.
Live in the real world dude. A huge haul for Bum after the last few seasons isn’t gonna happen.
If I am wrong I will personally eat crow on these boards, do you have the cohones do do the same or all you all talk?
Really? I think you’re memory is lacking just a little bit of detail. Yes he gave up that HR but he did have a quality outing and oh yeah, the Giants prevailed in that game in extras. Oh, but other than that pretty good memory.
I bet you would pay kimbrel for his lifetime sun 2.00 era as well.
Cubs won the world series that year so forgive me. Lots to remember. I was really just trolling you in the first place for being a d-bag to Jeff.
Sub*
statman…..”quality outing”….5 ip….7 hits….3 er…..5.40 era….1.600 WHIP. You have a different definition of quality outing
Statman – how do you define “quality” outing? Anything 5+ innings with an ERA under 5.41?
Children!
Please stop!
Can’t we all
just get along?
Oh but the Cubs still kicked the crap out of them in that series. Other than that, pretty good memory.
statman…….
I’ll ask again. A huge haul for Bum after the last few seasons isn’t gonna happen.
If I am wrong I will personally eat crow on these boards, do you have the cohones do do the same or all you all talk?
You go Jeff!
I get what you are saying Jeff however at the same time you are looking at Bumgarner in a vacuum.and I think there are other variables can and will dictate what his ultimate package is
1 SFG will be paying down all or substantially all of Bum’s deal, this is a no brainer for the Giants as they are looking to maximize the return on Bum and every person they trade
2 While analytics and past markets might provide some sort of baseline for the prospect ask, actual supply and demand will provide the real world range. So while he does have a limited NTC, his choices appear financially motivated vs lack of desire to go to a market.
3 From a pure rental standpoint, he does stand out among the crowd, Wheeler? Marcus Stroman and Minor in TX are controlled thru 2020. Cleveland is a x-factor on what they do with Kluber and Bauer who also have 2 yrs, that latter via arb, Don’t they keep that core intact and try again in 2020 and sell next deadline if it didn’t work out?
4 Teams who could be looking to add, TB, MIN are not on the NTC, PHI, ATL, BOS, MIL, STL, CHI, HOU and NYY all are on
5 SFG are open for sale and in a vacuum/individually a few desirable pieces. Bum obviously, Will Smith and Waston as LH bullpen pieces, I’d be really curious if they’d listen on Moronta. Vogt and Sandavol are interesting bench pieces.. I think there’s a potential for Bum to get traded with a 2nd minor piece (not Smith, maybe Watson) as way to alter their return, possibly. SF has $ and CBT space
I think the whole wild card to this year is the absence of a waiver trade line and how teams deal with this. Basically a teams 40 man roster has to have the depth to to last 3 months. from 7/31 thru the WS. This has to have some ripple effect on win-now 40 man rosters when it comes to trades..
Those are good points, truly. Thank you for responding in this manner. All things I’d consider closely if I was trying to make a strong and conclusive point about his true trade value.
Really, I was just trying to respond to this notion that I (or we) somehow have it in for Bumgarner by suggesting he isn’t going to return elite prospects. If you look at what I actually wrote in the chat, I didn’t do that in the least. We are talking about a non-elite rental starter. I believe every contender has the prospect firepower to acquire a player of that sort.
All I said was that it’s not like trading for Sale … which understandably required multiple, elite prospects. Sale was acquired in mid-prime with multiple seasons left on a cheap extension. That’d be like trading Bumgarner after 2016. It’s beyond obvious he’s worth far, far less now with what has occurred in the interim, the increase in age, and the loss of contractual control.
In recent chats I’ve noticed some complaints about MLBTR writers responding in the comments section of their own posts. I think those complaints are nonsense. Any writers that don’t want to respond are making their own decision and there is nothing wrong with that. A writer who posts a solid article has the right to defend his position. Keep it up! I don’t want to here any more slack about writers responding to replies in comments about their own posts.
Hilarious that people seem to think Bumgarner should be valued based on what he did in the playoffs 5 years ago. Pretty sure he’s not the same guy.
Why would the Giants move him? Because if they don’t they get nothing when he leaves except maybe a draft pick? Which is a totally unknown quantity since they don’t even know who will be available that far out?
I don’t even pretend to be an expert an I can see how bleeding obvious the logic there is.
He’s been a midling pitcher this year with no signs of rebounding. obviously the giants will ask for a lot and someone will probably overpay, but it will be an overpay for sure when it happens.
“You must be a yankees fan”
Thank you for that Jeff Todd.
Jeffrey Todd …….. Is there an updated 2020 free agent list somewhere that I’m not finding and who do you think we are shooting for.
19-20: mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/2019-20-mlb-free-agents…
20-21: mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/2020-21-mlb-free-agents…
Thanks Brother
Yankee fans… they are so funny. Frazier for Syndergaard. What, you didnt want to throw in bird? Lol
Haven’t you heard….the bird is the word
Yankees fans views of baseball economics are frequently ridiculous. Cubs fans are sometimes just as bad. On an MLBTR chat I once watched a Cubs fan suggest that the Braves would be willing to trade Dansby Swanson for Jason Heyward… and this was after Heywerd drastically underperformed with the Cubs but before his deflated early season hot streak. It’s like some fans think that if their team pays top dollar for a player that ends up being terrible for them, everyone else will still think he is a good player. The Braves traded Heyward for a reason and Shelby Miller wasn’t the only reason. Heyward still had relative hype. Every serious Braves fan knew that J-Hey had serious Back problems. Not spasms or muscle injuries but obvious spinal cord injuries that he has had since high school. I was honestly shocked by the way he performed his only year in St. Louis. Dansby was and is making less than $1 Mill a year while J-Hey is making $23 Mill a year for the next several years. No team in baseball is going to straight up give away a much younger #1 overall pick in exchange for any teams overpaid obvious mistake.
That was not meant to disparage all Yankees or Cubs fans. Some of my best friends are very knowledgeable Yankees and Cubs fans. From my personal experience I have met many frequent Yankees/Cubs/RedSox/Mets fans that think that way. All of those teams have many more thoughtful fans that do not think that way. I know this because I lived in each of those places and the true fans understand the reality of baseball.
Cubs won the WS that year? Oh yeah … forgot they one a WS for the first time in a couple hundred years.
Ouch!
Couple would be defined as 2. It was 108. That’s not a “couple” hundred, genius.