Reports from earlier this month suggested that the Braves hadn’t had any talks with the Blue Jays about Marcus Stroman, and ten days later, this is still the case, according to David O’Brien of The Athletic (Twitter link). It could be that the Braves are more focused on another Toronto pitcher in closer Ken Giles, as O’Brien writes that “I get [the] impression Giles could be a target” for Atlanta.
The Braves were one of eight teams who had scouts on hand Friday to watch Stroman’s most recent start, though as with many “scouts were in attendance…” types of reports at this time of year, this could be due diligence as much as a case of genuine interest on Atlanta’s part. Given that the Jays were facing another out-of-contention team in the Tigers, the Braves could have been more focused on some of Detroit’s trade candidates, in addition to Stroman, Giles, or other trade chips on the Blue Jays roster. (Giles, for the record, didn’t pitch on Friday through he did toss a scoreless inning for the save in Saturday’s game.)
Beyond just scouting, the Braves obviously have a very well-informed source on all things Stroman in general manager Alex Anthopoulos, whose front office made Stroman the 22nd overall pick in 2012 when Anthopoulos was Toronto’s GM. There has been some speculation as to whether any hard feelings between Anthopoulos and current Jays management could hamper any trade talks between the two clubs, though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) notes that the Blue Jays’ “stance has softened” about making deals with Atlanta, if a particularly hard line was taken at all.
Toronto is known to be seeking a big return for Stroman, and the “ask is high” on Giles as well, in O’Brien’s words. Giles is not only under team control through 2020, but he is also one of the very best relievers on the trade market this month. The 28-year-old righty has a 1.64 ERA, 5.7 K/BB rate, and an enormous 15.55 K/9 over 33 innings this season.
Armed with a fastball that has above-average spin (as per Statcast) and an average velocity of 97.3 mph, Giles has quietly been one of baseball’s more dominant closers, and is seemingly all the way back to top form after running into some difficulties on the field and off with the Astros in 2017-18. While postseason struggles were a big part of Giles’ issues in Houston, he still represents a more proven ninth-inning answer than the Braves’ current closer, Luke Jackson.
Like many other teams, the Braves aren’t keen on giving up their top prospects for rental players, making Stroman (who also has an arbitration year remaining) and Giles more palatable trade targets since they can also help the club in 2020. Just one year of control, however, might not be enough to pry away some of the Braves’ top prospects from their highly-rated farm system. Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution lists right-handers Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright and outfielders Cristian Pache and Drew Waters (the Braves’ top four minor leaguers, according to MLB.com’s rankings) as the youngsters that could be closest to untouchable in trade discussions. None would be dealt “unless it’s for a controllable difference maker,” Burns writes, and it remains to be seen if the Braves would consider Stroman or Giles at that level. This is purely my opinion, but I doubt Atlanta would deal any of those prospects for a reliever, even one as talented as Giles.
It’s easy for fans or armchair GMs to argue that the Braves should be more forthcoming to deal from their large wealth of prospects, though ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) noted that these minor leaguers are particularly important to a Braves organization that is more than a little hamstrung in the international market due to the signing violations that cost former GM John Coppolella his job in 2017. Since the Braves front office also seems to be operating with a mid-level payroll at best, it makes the pipeline of talent like Pache, Anderson, Wright, and Waters all the more important to the team going forward.
Go AA go!
You’re fing too much,,,look for a possible mistake in the trade market,,,just go away,,,
huh?!
Why don’t people know how type anymore!!??
Lol because they forget the little words like “to”??
Or maybe all the commas ?
@snake
You know, I’m not one of those posters that gets annoyed when someone posts in a foreign language but that wasn’t ANY language.
lol well said
The last paragraph is well said, painfully true, #facts, and a big ol’ slap in the face…all at once lol!!!
and the survey says: that 3 out of every 4 top 100 prospects fail to be quality major leaguers, rating as a ” bust” in the research. So the real question is which 1 or 2 of those prospects will succeed? That is the real value of most prospects, trade value.. because mostly they are going to flop..
While I’ll agree that Atlanta should be label anyone as untouchable, where do you come up with 3 out of 4 top 100s don’t work out?
you’re one of those that thinks every prospect becomes an allstar it seems….@someoldguy comment is more correct than not
Actually, my comment has a very crucial typo in it and is supposed to say they shouldn’t label anyone as untouchable, but again, I’d love to see some research on the topic, even though the term “bust” is rather subjective. I agree we need to add an arm or two but I also know that homegrown talent is much more valuable than bought talent. You don’t toss around prospects like the collection Atlanta has collected all willynilly.
The Braves have done pretty good lately with their top prospects. Swanson, Sorika, Riley, Albie’s, and Acuna.
absolutely…with their position prospects and not so much their pitching prospects the last 10 years
From statistical research…..
Swanson, Albies, Acuna, Riley. Seems like they have a pretty reasonable track record of top prospects working out. Why would they have to give up their top 4 unless they’re bidding against themselves, anyway? The Braves can offer up their #7 and #8 prospects and it would be better than most teams’ #3 and #4.
Not to mention Soroka.
There is maybe on 3 or 4 farm systems that can say our number 10 prospect wouldn’t crack their top 5. I’m almost certain of that and only the padres can say they have just as good of a farm system and collection of young controllable talent like the braves do and I would still take what the braves have over any team out there
If you would take your system over the Padres it just proves what a Homer you are.
Nothing wrong with that…..but true nonetheless.
Take a look at the numbers for a kid named Joey Cantillo.
Then understand he is the Padres #28 rated prospect.
And that’s “after” Tatis/Mejia/Paddack graduated.
Giles closes if gets traded to ATL, right?
LOL, you got that right.
Nah they’ll put him around the 6th. Mid reliever.
Would Padres have any interest in adding Myers to any potential deal and improving the prospects going to Blue Jays?
Man I guess…. but $60 million in sunk money buys a lot of prospects.
At the end of 2018 Fangraphs prospect valuation analysis valued Mackenzie Gore at $45 million. Let’s assume Myers averages 1 WAR/year until his contract is up. That’s 3 WAR or about $24 million in value. $36 million less than what he’s getting paid. Gore is more than enough to offset this…. but not by much. And this math just factors in getting rid of Myers…. not actually getting anything of value back.
Admittedly simplifying things a bit here and Gore has raised his stock since then… but you get the picture. Jays I’m sure would be interested in taking on a bad contract… but attaching a prospect to Myers would really hurt San Diego.
Preller has done a great job with the prospect building in San Diego… but wow the Myers and Hosmer deals are complete misses.
…..And the Jays throw in Grichuk to offset some of the cost.
Really can’t see the Jays moving Stroman to Atlanta without getting Anderson, Wright or a similar level pitcher already on the MLB roster.
I’m sure they’d ask for one of them to headline a trade for Giles too…. but not as likely to get it.
Really can’t see the braves getting stroman and Giles if they ask for Anderson, Wright, pache, or waters. Personally if the jays offered stroman and Giles the most I’d be willing to give up is Wilson or Allard plus a couple more of our mid tier prospects
Discussion should start and end with greinke.
maybe that’s the ‘financial flexibility’ move that actually fits
Absolutely. Dbacks are reportedly willing to eat $10 million a year to trade him. That makes him $20 million a year for 2.5 years. That seems more than reasonable. Send them Weigel, Demeritt, Wilson, and CJ Alexander. That’s 3 of 4 in the Braves top 20. 3 of them are also in triple-A so they can play very soon.
Send Inciarte and Toussaint back to them while taking on a portion of his salary, no freaking brainer for both sides.
Chippp must have put down the bottle and might be onto something here.
Grienke is owed 82 in change over the next 2 years plus
Ender is owed around 21.
O Day is owed 4
57 on balance
Braves give
Ender
Wiegel P
Demerritt
Wilson
Day (dead money)
Snakes give
Grienke and 10 to 15 million in cash total
Braves have Grienke around 20.
Sankes clear almost 50 off the payroll and pick up 3 prospects and ender.
Interesting.
I love this idea. I actually proposed it in a post about possible Braves pitching acquisitions. I actually don’t think we would have to give up much promise. I think Tookie and Ender could get it done in terms of possible future value that the Braves would give up. Grienke is old and his contract us so ridiculously inflated (at over $34.6 mill a year for the next 2+ years) that the out of contention D-Backs would maybe be willing to accept those 2 guys as compensation just for the ability to unload most of the money they owe him. They won’t win a championship with him on their roster anyhow. I think Grienke alone absorbs over 28% of their team salary every season. They have long since fired the guy that signed him to that ridiculous deal. He was also the same guy that traded Ender and Swanson to the Braves for Shelby Miller. We shouldn’t forget that they thought so highly of Tookie that they drafted him with a top 10 overall pick. This way they get Ender and Tookie back to minimize the damage they received when they lost them. They would still have to eat some more cash though so obviously O’Day would make sense as part of the deal. I think it might be slightly more palatable (considering a slight rate of future inflation) to supplement some of the extra $ they would have to send the Braves by having them accept the remainder of the Bruce Sutter contract. A lot of people don’t realize that the Braves owe that guy more than $10 million over the next year or 2. He only played for Atlanta for a short period of time and he was terrible while he was here. It would be like a glorified version of the deal when the Braves sent Vizciano to Seattle for Swarzak when everyone knew Vizcaino would never pitch for the Mariners. The only reason I would give up Tookie in the deal is because I think when Arizona said they would eat $10 mill a year of Grienke’s contract it was dependant upon them getting at least SOME future prospect talent in return. Otherwise they would just put Grienke on waivers to see if anyone will take his entire salary while giving up nothing. I know Tookie and Ender don’t seem like much of a hall for Zack Grienke but he is getting old and that $ they owe him is a doozy. They have to really look forward to having that contract off their books. It wouldn’t be out of the question to think it’s very possible Ender could win a gold glove patrolling center field for them over the next couple of seasons. It also wouldn’t shock people if Tookie grew up and actually became one of their best starting pitchers next year. All in all I think that is a pretty good return for a 36(ish) year old pitcher who typically throws in the 80’s and is owed over $80 million. His age is going to catch up to him very soon and it wouldn’t be anywhere near unheard of if it happens next year and Arizona owes him over $60 million. At that point he would have zero trade value. They can’t contend with his contracts on their books and it is highly likely that he will undergone a steep decline very soon. If they wait until he is closer to 37 it might be too late and they will have a non impact player eating up over 28% of their team payroll for multiple years.
The D’Backs are willing to eat 10m a year for the next 2 years only? What about the $62.5m in deferred money after that? 2022-2026 he gets 12.5m per. Point blank I think Greinke is too expensive for the Braves.
If it started with grienke it should also include 30 million in cash minimum.
Just curious what Ender would be worth on the market at this point as long as AA is looking to make moves.
Nothing. Love what Ended has done for the Braves before this year, but he has been awful this year.
His value is definitely down but he still carries some for the right club. Cincy has long been rumored to have interest in him. Not sure what kind of return you could expect but a guy with a 200 hit season not that long ago and his reputation on defense will definitely carry some value to most teams
True the reds want him but they will probably do what the dodgers did to them and grab one or two good prospects maybe a
Myers and Logan Allen or Edwards for disco or Tyler Mahle or a lot better prospects for sonny gray
Hes definitely worth something on a fringe team looking to get by for a few years or a team that isn’t ready to fully rebuild, but make some definite changes/upgrade (Phillies/Mets last offseason) to solidify the roster for a potential run.
If he could just hit 270-280 even, he’s definitely worth a solid BP piece with his skills in the field and on the bases. The dudes a passionate baseball player and teammate to say the least.
If the right team called ender could be a piece of the trade it might allow us to keep a mid tier prospect instead, but I just don’t think you can really get much for ender. He would be more valuable to the braves by starting once a week against a RHP and being a late inning defensive replacement. I really like Enders speed and glove but the older he gets the more likely he ends up being like Michael Bourn at the end of his career
Buyer beware on Giles. He will likely melt in the playoffs, have seen that movie before.
Closer yes. Setup guy no.
no braves prospects for stro .
Guess you’ll have to get them else where
Just get rid of Touki and Wright already.
Think Wright will end up surprising a lot of people in 2-3 years honestly.
Touki seems like another repeat of Randall Delgado/Viscainio hype kinda guy.
I like Touki. I think he’s playing inconsistently, working things out at the bigs. That curveball is nasty. Randall Delgado didn’t have that.
Touki is no longer working things out in the bigs after being given numerous chances now. Agreed he has an absolute nasty curveball but is too inconsistent with his command. At this point where this organization sits; he need to be packaged back to Arizona for greinke.
That’s wild. He’s 23 and is clearly uncomfortable as a relief pitcher.
I hope this will help everyone when coming up with trade proposals. It’s a trade simulation site. Baseballtradevalues.com helps come up with trade scenarios for two and three team trades to come up with even values. It’s pretty fair overall and represents fair numbers in value for every player.
naaahhhh….we all like arguing better to see is the better ‘arm chair GM’ lol…
Wright, Mueller & Jenista for Stroman & Hudson
Everyone want to ask for Gausman and his final Arb year back in any trade now? Lol
I’d send Allard, Contreras & Ynora for Stroman & Giles. They’ll probably counter, but Anderson & Pache are untouchable. Errbody else is on the table.
That’ll work smoltzy.. Love contreras’ pedigree but confident in Langliers (needs to hit the weights and treadmill) being another McCann. Everything depends on how soon this current regime decides to take over the Dodgers as THE team to beat in the NL for the next 5-10 years and they’re inching oh so close.
Braves:
Greinke
Bradley
12 Mill
D’Backs:
Inciarte
Wright
Low level prospect
Let’s go.
I don’t think the Braves are going after a starter. Keuchel, Teheran, Gausman, Soroka, Fried, Folty, Newcomb, Touki. They seem to believe that having a healthy and/or more confident Folty and Gausman will serve as their deadline “acquisitions”. There is also a lot of depth beyond them. It may be the correct course for this season.
You can’t go into the playoffs “hoping” your pitchers will have their ace stuff. They have tried this far far too many times to get past the first round and/or wild card and it’s always been a recipe for failure.
Without a guy like greinke, this team is a very good regular season team that has a lineup that can hit the snot out “decent” pitchers. They need an ace on their side that will give them a chance in those 1-3 run games. Soroka is on his way, keuchel is solid, and then it’s coin flips not knowing what you’re going to get. Gaus, folty, and Teheran define the word unpredictable.
Ten more days of this.
Buyer beware with Giles and his elbow.
I would list Anderson, Waters, Pache, Wentz and Muller as not available. Any of the remaining prospects including Toussaint could be had for the right price. The prospects who will be Rule 5 eligible after this year who should be dealt are RHP-Ynoa, RHP-Weigel, OF-Demeritte and C-Jackson. I wanted to see Weigel pitch and possibly make the team and retained but that may not be possible at this point. I would really push LHP Allard as a trade center piece since he is still listed as the originations #8 prospect. I’m not sure what to think of Gohara who was very promising but is MIA this year after a brief appearance this past Spring.
Weigel, Ynoa, and Jackson are not Rule 5 eligible
So another fan who wants major league players to help his team win in the playoffs but all their best prospects are off the table.
Right
Funny thing about having so many young arms in the minors, if one out of 10 becomes a solid starter over a decade you have hit the jackpot. Young pitchers are harder to gauge, wildness, arm problems, immaturity all kinds of what if’s. Think of all the young arms that never did pan out, there have been many.
Atlanta can well afford to trade some arms for a true closer like Giles or a Smith.
Our limitations on the international market are hurting us. We all see an incredible slew of prospects now, but we won’t be able to replenish as quickly as some other teams. Also, since we’re a mid-level market as far as salary we need to try and beat the average when it comes to hitting on our prospects. It would be tough to go thru what Pittsburgh is going thru now. Having traded away 2 pitchers who appear to be aces, and a solid outfielder for a very mediocre return.