10:37pm: The Mets have recently discussed Syndergaard with no fewer than six teams, Tim Healey of Newsday reports. Unsurprisingly, though, there’s “minimal urgency” on the Mets’ part to trade Syndergaard, whom they’d need to be “wowed” to move, Healey writes.
12:19pm: The Padres have checked in recently on the availability of Mets starter Noah Syndergaard, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link). The big righty was a known target of the San Diego organization over the winter, though the sides obviously failed to line up at the time.
It’s not at all clear that the two organizations have engaged in substantive trade dialogue to this point. And there are other teams also showing attention to the 26-year-old Syndergaard. It’s still far from certain at this point that the Mets will move him, let alone where.
There are some tough calls ahead for the scuffling New York org. Sitting at ten games under .500, there’s not much hope of digging out of the hole this season. But the club’s balance sheet is set up to continue the pursuit of contention in 2020. Syndergaard would have obvious value to the team then, as he’s controllable for two more seasons via arbitration.
Selling Thor likely won’t make sense for the Mets if it means settling for a return that reflects his 2019 output. Syndergaard carries only a 4.68 ERA through 105 2/3 innings. There certainly seems to be some sequencing and batted-ball misfortune mixed in — he has a slightly depressed 67.0% strand rate; Statcast credits him with a .280 xwOBA-against that’s far better than his .314 wOBA-against — but he’s also carrying career-low levels of swinging strikes (11.9%) and chases out of the zone (31.5%).
Given the levels of early interest being shown, it’s obvious that other organizations still see plenty of skill in Syndergaard’s powerful right arm. He’s still averaging over 98 mph with his fastball. His release point has wandered this year, which could reflect a concern, an attempt at an adjustment, or an area to target for correction.
The key question may ultimately be whether a team is willing to put enough talent on the line to force the Mets’ hand on the matter. For the Friars, adding Syndergaard now would significantly enhance the immediate outlook, though with a yawning gulf in the division that’d be a dubious strategy. Such a move would mostly be about his potential to anchor the rotation next season, with an extension perhaps also a possibility. The San Diego organization is laden with young talent, so there’s no shortage of conceivable pieces that could be included in a deal.
Trade him to a team with great farm for a superb return package. Otherwise keep.
Whoa. You should give GM Ted talks
Nice dig. Love it.
Dig wins the internet today.
Your reply to LongTimeFan1 just goes to show.. being the first to comment is not always a wise move.
Sometimes people confuse insight and the obvious..lol
Wow that’s such an outside the box idea. Never would’ve thought of that myself.
You pinpointed the options there.
Padres and Astros have good farms. If SanDiego offered RHP’s Gore and Patino I would by Thor his plane ticket and I’m a believer in him but those 2 are worth the risk. 2 future starting P with 5-6 years of team control.
Patino and Gore aren’t going anywhere
LOL. Wouldnt trade either of thise for Syndergaard strait up. Hiw about 3 hot digs. That fip over 4 lol
Yeah Gore would be completely off the table even coming from a fan of neither team, Patino too would be unlikely but maybe there’s a chance. Syndergaard has a 4.68 ERA this year, he’s been awful. His history helps but a contender needs him to be good this year.
“his history helps”,,,,,uhm, yes. In the ~4 seasons worth of pitching (spread across 5 years became of his injury shortened 2017) he has amassed a 13.9 WAR….so nearing 3.5WAR per season. His career 121 ERA+ and 2.88FIP are #1 starter stats.
Yes, his 4.68ERA stinks this year, but he has a 3.98FIP. He has played with an atrocious defense. Put him on a team with a good defense and that has a winning culture (unlike the Mets), I could realistically see <3.30 ERA. That is #1 starter and likely top 15-20 in the league.
That’s hilarious. Patino and Gore would never happen. NYM would hope to get one based on Syndergaard’s regression.
And Gore would be firmly off the table anyway.
But Cracker Jack GM and Fred feel that he’s worth so much more.
Whose patino and gore never heard of them at all! A lot of teams wish they had Noah! Even the yanks that’s a fact! I would keep him and send nido wheeler and the rest of the bullpen packing to Colorado for Arenado and Blackmon!
Syndergaard has been so consistent this year and is always healthy…oh wait
Yeah the injury concerns for me make it a scary proposition. Not to mention his statistical regression .
We can give you Margot, Kinsler and Myers.
Myers has negative value because he is barely replacement level with a HUGE salary increase coming…$5.5m to $22.5m …good luck with that contract. It’s no Cano contract, but for a 1B, it’s pretty bad because it’s for the next 3 years and $67.5m.
You know they’re not going to trade Thor or deGrom, same bs they played all last season, just wasting people’s time.
Yeah I doubt it either. DeGrom because Wilpon is a moron and Syndergaard because no one will over enough and they’d be selling low.
*Offer enough
Mets should go after Trevor Bauer and kluber and solidify the bullpen get rid of familia gesellman and all the other crapshoot in there !! Plus some new big bats ! Otherwise it’s going to be over for a long long time !
Yes. The Indians have a dumb GM, he’ll take it. He traded for Cano.
Oh right that was the Mets Dumb GM. What makes anyone think that he knows how to make a good trade?
Smooth talk and good looks don’t run baseball teams.
Mets do not have the package to get either one of them.
Tatis for Noah –
Dude your on drugs Tatis ain’t going nowhere no how.
Maybe Noah to the dodgers for Bellinger straight up !!! Is another way to get more offers and bigger bats plus more guys!
I think for the Mets this would be the best return for their team needs.
Why do the Padres think they’re good? If you need to sign two free agents, one of whom shouldn’t have got half as much money as he did, given they already had a 1st basemen making too much money. Just to try and make the playoffs your GM should be fired because every GM should be able to make the playoffs just the prospects in the system.
Most of the prospects in the system are there because of the GM. So your logic is circular.
loller @ GM should be fired for trying to make the playoffs
Wow.
Whut
How do you think those prospects got there?
Spontaneous generation, obviously.
By the team being bad. Unless you’re talking about someone past the first 4-5 rounds and then if there’s not consistently people from there then it’s blind luck. The Cardinals for instance, keep producing good lower round players, which looks more like a skill. Being really bad for five or six years after a two year buildup to some success after being bad since before Gwynn left isn’t much to be praised over. I know he’s only been there since the Kibrel trades but the points the same, any team could and would have acquired most of that talent.
So trading for guys like Tatis,Logan Allen,Chris Paddack and signing the “right” international prospects doesn’t factor in at all?
It’s just drafting high?
Someone is not paying attention yet still commenting!
I think the point he’s trying to make is that if our teams weren’t so bad we wouldn’t have been on the position to trade James Shields, Fernando Rodney and Kimbrel.
Blah blah blah
I’m not sure if this is a joke or not. Low baseball iq or just trying to get a reaction
I see you’re back in your comfort zone Iver….
This is what happens when the hippies legalize it.
Do away with free agency and have a 30 team playoff. Why didn’t anyone think of this before?
So maybe you take a look at the bigger picture… both the guys you mock are producing, and so is rookie Fernando Tatis, and so are Renfro and Reyes. There’s holes and weaknesses, but a really good addition to the rotation COULD keep them in WC contention. This is not your father’s Padres
My father’s Padres went to the World Series in 1984 and 1998. They had Hall of Famers like Gwynn and Hoffman. These Padres hope they become like my father’s Padres.
Touche..
Still the point remains that there are a group of Padres Players producing e.g., Renfroe, Reyes, Hosmer, Machado, Tatis Jr,
Some good starting pitching in Lucchese, Paddock Lauer… but they have guys on innings limits and need a boost just to maintain much less contend… I think Syndergard can be fixed and you get him for 2 more seasons… get him now while you can
That’s just my opinion I could be wrong
Not my father’s Fathers?
All free agents suck
Nice save….
what are you talking about?
It’s a sad day when Mets fans are envious of how the Padres organization operates. The Mets should trade Syndergaard, or deGrom, for the best available package. That package, however, would probably be better this off-season. If you expect to trade for either, expect to give up a king’s ransom. Both are legit Aces, when they’re on a team that can actually hit and field. As of now, Wheeler is the top target for trade, as his contract is up at season’s end.
This is a bad time to trade Noah as he’s been terrible all season. You’re not going to get a return like the pitcher he was in the past, it’s gonna be somewhere between his past and his performance this year. Mets probably are better off holding.
This is what we all said about Chris Archer…
You’d think with the way that just blew up on the Pirates teams would be extra cautious not to have that happen again.
Archer was never anything more than a product of media hype. Thor has been good every season but this one.
You have examples of pitchers failing and prospering. Verlander, Hamels? Examples go both ways.
Sure, but you pay the price of lesser guy and hope for more, not the other way.
can’t have this idiot GM make the trade – he goes first then a new guy who understands the job can deal with the assets.
I agree however suggest that you back up seaver.
Can’t have these idiot owners find a new GM. They have no clue. They have no credibility. They have no cash. They have no commitment.
The solution is simple:
STOP watching the Mets. No tickets. No SNY
And I’ve checked in on Jennifer Lopez to see if she wanted to go an a date with me…..
*chuckles* Nice one
SD is the right place to shop. But once Syndergaard goes, then write off 2019, 2020, and likely 2021. At that point, just open up the flood gates.
Completely disagree. Syndergaard is not helping this team win, and moving on from him, won’t set the franchise back. If they traded deGrom, that would be another story. Although he hasn’t helped the team win, as the bullpen and everyone else on the team wastes the majority of his solid starts.
Maybe explain it to me then. Then NYMs are on pace for 72 wins, and not trending well, having lost 7-10 and 14-20. How are they going to go from winning 72 (maybe), and losing Syndergaard, to winning the approximately 90 that they will need in 2020?
Their rotation will be DeGrom, Matz & ????
Their BP will be Diaz, Lugo & ???
Their hitters will be Alonso, McNeil, Conforto, maybe Ramos???
That’s not going to win. What are you expecting for 2020?
The expectations for 2020 should be 4th place in the east as the Mets need to blow up the team and rebuild. Trading Syndergaard means capitulation of the era imo
Welcome to why Mets fans will continue to suffer. Between 2017 and 2018, the Mets traded away a ton of young arms and all of the limited depth they had in pitchers. Brodie came in and moved their top batting prospect and a top 3-4 pitching prospect for a PED 36 yo Cano with an albatross contract and a full NTC who only wanted to play in NYC. The team is going to likley suck for most/all of the next 5 years unless they gut the team and spend real money.
Kelinic was the Mets’ third best hitting prospect behind Ss Andres Giminez and some guy names Alphonso. and don’t exaggerate the Cano deal. The Mets got rid of two bad contracts and Seattle also send at least $20 million. And let’s not forget they got a closer who saved 57 games last year and will have 3 year on his contract after this year.
You haven’t written off 2019 yet?
I wrote the Mets off a few weeks back. That actually makes it more fun. Now they get to decide whether they are going to be like Toronto & Baltimore, who held onto Donaldson & Machado, and a ton of tiny pieces, and subsequently are #27 and #30.
Or maybe be like the SFGs, and continue to believe they can win by throwing more money at the problem.
Or be like the Astros, Cubs, KC, etc., and just tank hard, and then rebuild.
I don’t want to bust chops, but they’ve dug a huge hole. The have about $77M invested in 2020, for 5 guys that have a collective -0- WAR (or less). And they aren’t the RS, NYY, or SFG that can buy their way out of that hole.
Just imho, if you trade Thor (and they should), don’t bother pretending you have a chance. Trade everyone with a pulse.
Thor will go in the winter or next July. His value is so down now, Could it get worse? Sure but he’s a competitor and will try to fix things. If he wants Degrom $ he will be gone by next July deadline. Cant see the Mets starting 2020 without him and Degrom. Wheeler is gone and could possibly return next spring but doubtful. Vargas if not traded will probably get a 1-2 year dea like Colon used to get. Matz is the soft guy who cant handle pressure at all. Hopefuly he stays healthy and finishes over .500 and we get rid of him. Its quite conceivable that Jacob and Thor are only starters remaining in 2020. God I hope so. Sign Francisco Lindor!!!
And lower prices the less time he has. He needs a real pitching coach to get him back on track.
The new pitching coach has Thor listening to some motivational tapes on his 8 track player. Should only be a couple of days before he locks in.
Mets don’t believe his value is down. Unless someone is offering 2 of their top 3 prospects, and at least 3 of their top ten, the Mets should keep him. If he rights the ship next year, you’d be looking at someone having to give up a 4th player in their top 30. Mind you, prospects are only prospects until they do something. Chances are, only 1 or 2 actually become regular major leaguers.
Sure, prospects are only prospects, but it’s always been that way so recent trades are a good indicator of what a guy is worth. And Syndergaard gets nowhere near that right now so they should hold.
Who on the Mets has a clue to what he is worth? What they believe is fantasy or fiction.
This makes sense. SD wants to contend (or have had plans to contend this year). Syndergaard has a few years of control left and the Padres really look to contend in 2020 when the younger players gain more MLB experience.
A bounce-back season from Syndergaard next year means a hefty return. Mets might want to hold him. SD definitely should pursue it.
I thought he had 2 more trips to arbitration
That appears to be so. Think they just worded it awkwardly. Seems they were saying next season he would have one more arb year left.
2 1/2 years of control at Arb levels !!!!
He is the type of talent and youth that empties Top 10 prospect lists.
Every GM and pitching coach wishes they have the opportunity to harness his game and use their methods to get the best out of him.
Teams dont do these kinds of deals anymore. Theyre long gone. No one esp the pads are selling the farm for a good sp.
When Cole and Paxton were recently traded, both had 2 arb seasons remaining and were arguably coming off of better seasons than Thor has had this year. Looking at the returns, neither player broke the bank or emptied anyone’s farm system. I would Syndergaard to have a similar type of return.
Paxton hasn’t had nearly the success of Syndergaard. Cole was pretty good but not dominant. Syndergaard has been dominant when healthy. Yes, when healthy, as he has been nicked up with one of the worst medical staffs in baseball and worst ownership group in MLB.
Paxton has been as good or better than Syndergaard over the past 3 seasons. How many injuries and/or down seasons must occur before the player is judged by his recent performance and not what happened in the distant past? In 2016 Rick Porcello was 27 and coming off of an AL Cy Young award, while Aaron Sanchez was a 23 year old AL ERA champ. Do you think either of those players would demand a large return in trade today? There are numerous reasons why Syndergaard may not have lived up to the hype he had after a great 2016 season, however at some point a player can’t live on past accolades and will be valued based on his current and recent results. Unfortunately for the Mets, Syndergaard”s current and recent results have been inconsistent and injury plagued.
People dont give up top talent for consistently injured mid ritation talent.
Tell that to the Pirates.
6-5 isn’t terrible with that D behind him. He’s young and still throws 98 with a killer slider. You don’t give up on that. As 1 said earlier get him a pitching coach. His old 1 under Collins. The pitchers loved him and Thor, Degrom and Harvey before injuries were all promising.
I think it’s time to sell. There are only 6 teams with less wins than us, and we’re only 6 games in front of the godawful Marlins. There are no free agent hitters worth a damn in 2020 so it makes sense to retool the minors and try to make things happen in 2021 with a stronger free agent class.
Pitcher W/L record is irrelevant. Period.
Exactly. *sighs
I have to admit, I haven’t seen win/loss record used to describe a picture of value in quite a while. By that metric, I guess Jacob deGrom was just an average pitcher last year
Thor doesn’t pitch well to Ramos …. pitches better with Nido …. and the defense behind him has been poor.
Have they? Sounds like Morosi is stating the obvious landing spots coupled with the Mets underperformaing and drawing his own conclusions. While they have obvious interest in a TOR starter; ownership, front office have consistently said locally a move will not be made for the short term if it negatively impacts a sustainable future. trading Gore, Paddack, Patino, Weathers, Castillo, Munoz, Edwards, Campusano, and the like would be that. Move along, nothing to see here.
Can’t see the Mets getting a huge return unless they trade with the Yankees. The GM is looking pretty bad so far, and he would need a lopsided trade to have any chance of saving his job. I’d bet they hold on to him, and hope he improves in the 2nd half of the season.
The Mets should have committed to a rebuild last season. They’ve set themselves back a couple of years, and still will need to overhaul their roster.
Cashman is a cheapskate, from a prospect standpoint. He rarely has to do trades like that with the payroll he can add.
Why do you think the Yankees would give a better return.
Yankees don’t have any blue chip prospects so how could they give a huge return?
Luis Urias+ another piece brings Noah to San Diego
What are the Mets gonna do with Urias? And his stock is down, same w Noah but that other piece is going to need to be better than Urias
Have to disagree w urias’ Stock being down. He struggled in less than 30 major league ABS and is ripping up El Paso this year.
Yeah maybe, he has torn up AAA. But he’s struggled actually in 82 PA at the MLB level, not that that’s a huge sample size either but it’s bigger. But he’s never hit for that kinda power before and doesn’t really project to. Ask yourself though, is he the guy you’d have your eye on and would get the deal done if you were New York?
No I don’t disagree with that. NYM do not need another second baseman on their team. I was just talking about Urias’ stock specifically. I don’t think it’s at a low point. He needs consistent ABS to really show he can play.
I think the Mets should target multiple arms in SD’s system and then grab a guy like a Buddy Reed whose stock is down. I could see Preller wanting this guy bad enough to pay a price that BVW can live with. When Preller has his eye set on a guy he tends to make it happen. If Hos and Machado are any indication of that.
I’m with jbigz on this one. How is Urias’ stock down? Struggling as a hitter when you are coming in like every fourth day as a pinch hitter proves nothing. The only people whose stock is down because of that are Andy Green and AJ Preller for thinking that is a good way to develop a young hitter.
He’s not a power guy, so you can credit the PCL for the 17 home runs, but you don’t have an OBP of .405 in any league without doing something right.
Urias flopped in the majors so far. While he still has plenty of potential, you’d still have to add at least 2 more prospects, including one of their pitching prospects. A lot to give up, but they do have a deep farm if they want to compete in 2020.
If Urias was in the deal, there wouldnt be much else. Noah just isnt worth that much. Yall held on to long. Would rather get Stroman anyways.
Flopped? He has like 30 games. He’s not even lost his prospect status
Flopped? He was getting used like every fourth day as a pinch hitter. Impossible to get into a groove that way. Let’s see how he does given actual PT before using words like “flopped.”
Yeah but this makes other GMs question why it happened. I do believe his stocks down, it not in the tank or anything, but it’s not what it was. If you’re the Mets though, is Urias really the big prize you want for Syndergaard?
It happened because they already had Kinsler and they needed him to boost his trade value so he could be moved at the deadline.
I’m not talking about him sitting. I’m talking about that being the reason for his poor performance
Ben I typically agree with you but I have to say in Urias’ case it’s really hard to say his stock is down after the way they used him. Giving a guy nothing but PH abs and maybe a start a week doesn’t tell me much. He’s hitting 40% above league average in AAA and his hit tool is very solid. I don’t want him on the Mets because he’s not much of a fit on that team who already have too many guys who belong at 2B. But I don’t think his stock has dipped. I think it’s about the same as it has been.
They don’t need Urias the Mets have plenty of 2b guys the trade would have to consist Renfroe,Mejia and a pitching prospect or 2
man there are going to be some disappointed Mets fans if this goes down. wow.
If Preller pulls a trade for Thor that includes two or more upper tier (top ten type) prospects…. he’s even more lost than i thought. ZERO interest in trading for an often injured, and now underperforming, pitcher…. not when the team has many more areas of need and several pitching prospects on the way. If they are going to use their farm to address needs, use it to address CF, catcher, maybe 2B, use them to attach to Myers and unload that contract, get bullpen help, etc.
I’m not on the Thor train. Aside from him costing a Cal Quantrill or Logan Allen, and then some lower level prospects… (which the Mets will never go for)…. then no. Stay away from gore, Patino, Morejon, even Baez
As a Mets fan I would take back Myers only if the Padres took on Cano. I would do Syndergaard and Cano for Myers,Mejia,Quantrill and a BP guy. Than trade Wheeler to Milwaukee for Corey Ray. 2020 they will have their young CF with speed, a young catcher and a young SP.
Yeah I’m the low guy on Ray and you’re not getting him for a Wheeler rental. Not even close is my guess.
I kind of agree with you. In his favor is age, a proven trackrecord, upside (He’s entering his prime), and affordability. All of that squalls something you won’t want to give up, a guy you’ve likely not heard of (at least the average fan), and another piece. Getting rid of Myers is Gore. They’ll get a little back especially if paying some but it’s dead money and the cost of one year of $10,000,000 ($8,000,000 adjusted) is Touki a couple of years ago. They’d get back a Wendle and Faria/(The return for Beckham) and maybe another top thirty. Just my opinion.
Y’all need Mookie Betts.
I really don’t see BVW selling this year – especially if it means selling low on Thor. The Wilpon’s do seem to truly love him but I don’t think he’s willing to admit defeat on his reimagination of the roster this year, even if it means losing value on trade assets. I could see him moving the potential free agents but not anyone controllable this trade deadline.
That being said, Preller get it done. Adding him to the second half rotation would be stellar – especially with Richards and potentially Gore providing further reinforcements. The bullpen all of a sudden looks like a strength with Strahm and Lamet in it.
Michael Baez, Anderson Espinoza, Adrian Morejon, Owen Miller, and Austin Allen for Thor.
Two top 100 prospects, both of which were in the top 50 at one point; injured goods in Espinoza who at one point looked like Pedro Martinez, an MLB-ready catcher who fits the bat-first mold BVW likes and a flier to sweeten the pot in Miller. Who hangs up?
Take out one of the first three and you might have a deal. You also may need to lessen one of the last two guys. But that’s mostly a pitching headlined package, volatile for sure. I think NY would want to diversify.
Pads would do something like Allen (Catcher AAA/MLB) + Logan Allen SP (AAA/MLB) + Ty France (AAA) + RObert Stock BP arm
NYM have said they are looking at a Gerrit Cole type return… They got 3 25 yr olds from Pitt.. Musgrave (who at the time was 11-12 4,52 ERA and sort of a failed former top 100 dude) + Feliz (a flame thrower with a 5.62 ERA in Pitt, but 70 SO in 48 innings) + Moran (another top 150-200 type at the time and 25 yr old (erie similar to Ty France) + Martin who is currently Pitts #18 would be Padres #30-#35 type,,, So my package above is equivalent to what Pitt got for Cole..Could possibly even swap Avila (pads #29 and a 1.62 MLB ERA even though he is in AA currently) for Stock.. but dont see AJP doing more than that for Noah….
I would like for this deal to expand and include McNeill.. Pads would have to add Mejia + Urias OR 1 of those 2 and Morejon but would help both teams from a lefty righty balance perspective .. Pads too righty..Mets too lefty… But McNeill probably untouchable…..
One more thing on Noah.. with Hedges (and the games best framing skills) and that D behind him + Petco factor I can see a 3.50 ERA or better SP the 2nd 1/2.. and being a RHP.. would fit right in with 2020 proj Paddack/Gore/Noah/Luchessi/Richards (likely used as a swing SP coming off TJ and taking it easy as he ramps up for post season possibilitis)/Lauer./Lamet (giving Pads 3 SP at the 5th spot, with manuverability and or other trade possibilities down the line…
I can see the appeal in McNeil, but he is not getting moved. He is leading the league in hitting. He has hit at every level, so it isn’t a hot streak. His advanced stats are crazy good. The Mets have him at the league minimum and then Arb for a total of 5.5 years. He isn’t a FA until 2025. He is slightly older, but the Mets will control him through age 32ish…so basically his prime for….cheap.
Brodie’s going to be fired if he takes Logan Allen as the headliner of his deal. Austin Allen is a below average defensive catcher who can hit. Sounds a lot like someone they might be trying to dump. See Ramos, Wilson. Stock is nearly 30 years old and has been a zero in the big leagues. And Ty France? Yeah if you believe those PCL numbers and you believe the Mets need another 3B(as if they don’t have enough of those already) Yeah, that deal works great for SD. They get Thor for spare parts. It works great for Brodie if he wants to be an agent again but you know if he wants to have any shot of keeping his job that won’t do it.
Agreed, complete spare parts….no way even the Mets janky FO take that offer. Unfortunately, they are so bad I’m sure a bunch of teams will take swings and hope he bites on a bad deal. Hell…I’d trust Omar right now, but who knows….
Padres and Mets discussed a trade in the off-season and nothing materialized.. I am curious if anything has changed since then. I am not sure who the Mets would target, but the Padres have a deep farm system depending how MLB ready the Mets want the talent to be.
I am sure that package was > then, but probably not much less now.. definetely not as good from AJP’s side with Noah’s 3rd straight season of negative trend now
I would listen for sure. It would have to be overwhelming. I actually see them moving Wheeler before Thor. Wheeler is a talented guy stuck on talented. He simply has not shown any consistency throughout his career.
Wheeler has 1/2 a season of control, while I have no doubt he gets moved.. Padres are out on that type of RENTAL deal.. AJP looking for 2 + yrs of control in any deal for a TOR… So it would surprise me if both Wheeler (Twins, Sox, NYY, LAA) and Noah (SD, others) are moved,,
As a RS fan, Wheeler is the guy I want. he doesn’t have enough talent or service time left to warrant a big return. But he has more than enough talent to give them about a #3 SP pitching out of the 5-hole. Fairly similar to Eovaldi last year.
Wheeler has filthy stuff he’s just been injured the past couple of years. His second half last year was ridiculous and is why he was getting so much hype when he got traded to the Mets. The talent is definitely there he just needs to put it together.
Yeah agree mostly hit this year he’s been healthy and not good. And when he’s only controlled for this year that’s not good.
If the Mets are going to rebuild then you really should hold onto Syndagaard. He seems as likely a bounce back candidate as they get. If he can put together a second half at or near the top of his potential then maybe trade him during the offseason but otherwise wait until the 2020 dead line.
If you are going to rebuild you need to deal him. He will give back one of the best returns.
If they are going to rebuild they need to hold onto a guy who only has two more years of control after this one? How do you figure?
They can’t possibly allow Brodie to move Thor or deGrom. Guy will cock it up epically. Anyone with a pulse can see they need to fire him at the end of the season and hire an adult/baseball professional to trade off assets/retool/etc.
Teams match up well.. Padres MUST deal from deepest system in baseball, or face a 40 Man crunch & multiple Rule 5 losses. Mets desperately need Pitching depth and positional group athleticism.
Padres should make untouchable…
SP Eric Lauer (24)
SP Chris Paddack (23)
IF Fernando Tatis Jr (20)
RP Kirby Yates (32)
LHP Mackenzie Gore (20)
IF Luis Urias (22)- Only available if the absolute Centerpiece of Deal
Padres should be hesitant to move given focus on contending…
SP Joey Lucchesi (26)
RP Trey Wingenter (25)
C Austin Hedges (26)
Mets won’t want Corner only outfield bats (Hunter Renfroe / Franmil Reyes) or large contracts (Machado, Hosmer, Wil Myers, Garrett Richards).
Padres GM AJ Preller can tell Brodie Van Wagenen after the above group choose 5-7 Players…
Options?
Players Nearing or in Arbitration:
OF Travis Jankowski (28)
RP Robbie Erlin (28)
LHP Matt Strahm (27)
Players on Minimum Deals through 2020:
SP Logan Allen (22)
SP Cal Quantrill (24)
RP Luis Perdomo (26)
RP Brad Wieck (27)
LHP Nick Margevicius (23)
SP Anderson Espinoza (21)
Players requiring additions to 40 man roster that will be selected in Rule 5 Draft:
OF Buddy Reed (24)
RHP Andres Munoz (20)
Pitching Prospects:
LHP Adrian Morejon (20)
RHP Michel Baez (23)
LHP Ryan Weathers (19)
Salary Offset:
RP Kazuhisa Makita (34)
Proposed Deal:
Mets Receive:
SP Logan Allen (22)- Minimum Salary 2019. Club Control through 2024.
Drafted by Allen Baird in 2015 8th Round. Pitchability lefty. Fits into rotation through 2024.
OF Travis Jankowski (28)- $1.17M Salary 2019. Arbitration Eligible 2020-2022.
Injured currently. Poor Mans Benintendi with more speed. Good centerfield, a grinder type made major strides in 2018 prior to fracturing wrist. Landed $1.17M in Super 2 last offseason and goes through Arbitration 2020-22. Stony Brook Educated.
LHP Matt Strahm (27)- Minimum Salary 2019. Arbitration Eligible 2020-2022.
Reliever or Starter? Won’t find way into Padres rotation. 186 ERA+ in 2018 in 41 appearances. Arbitration Eligible 2020-22. High leverage or multi inning reliever immediately.
LHP Adrian Morejon (20)- Prospect.
Undersized Cuban Left Hander with excellent stuff already in AA. I see subtle Johan Santana comparisons with absolute downside of Martin Perez.
OF Buddy Reed (24)- Prospect.
Switch Hitter born in Bronx. Elite Athlete excelled as Prep Hockey player before joining Pete Alonso on Florida’s National Championship squad. Hit tool might never come but if it does….. part of me thinks he could be the next Lorenzo Cain (Gold Glove Center Fielder & streaky hitter). Requires addition to 40 Man Roster in December.
RHP Andres Munoz (20)- Prospect.
Reached AA. Must be added to 40 Man in December. Potential high leverage reliever on the fast track.
RP Kazuhisa Makita (34)- $1.9M Salary 2019. Club Control through 2024.
Signed out of Japan. Jettisoned to AAA. Gets shot to fit into Mets 2019 bullpen. Maybe helps bolster Mets brand in Japan? The ultimate throw in.
BOTTOM LINE:
Padres are excellent developing pitching and success leaves parts the Mets desperately need to bolster their staff. Plus, Padres have premium position player athletes all over the system. Mets have solid IF Depth prospect wise, but need to add a future Centerfielder with a longterm focus of upgrading a dismal Defense.
These 2 teams match up exceedingly well…
Well put
Hard to take a guy who just referred to Eric Lauer as “untouchable” seriously. If this rebuild goes as hoped there won’t be room in the Padres’ rotation for him.
Eric Lauer has a 2.94 ERA in 2019..if you exclude 2 games at Coors when the humidor broke.. he added 2mph to his fastball and developed a new pitch in the off-season which he used very effectively vs NYY O-9 and since then 0-28 as a swing miss pitch it was a curve he already threw at like 79 and up into a tighter spin and higher 84 velo since the NYY game..so yeah he kind of untouchable now
I agree, although I think the Mets only get 4 of the players rather than 7, that doesn’t happen in MLB. I do like a pack of 4 of those as a reasonable haul. Well/reasoned though. Although the thing about building around Eric Lauer baffled me, because he’s not very good.
Yeah I think we’d pass. Need better prospects in return
Yeah I’m not sure you’d pass here. But you should. However, you’re not gonna get an elite guy in return this year. No ones offering that because he’s not been good. So if you do trade him, I think this is roughly the price.
Lauer is a backend arm. Labeling him untouchable is pretty funny honestly. If a backend starter is untouchable I don’t really know what to say. He doesn’t really have the stuff to be any better than the guy he is now. Which is alright because a low-4 ERA #4 starter is perfectly fine. Mike Leake has carved out a long career like that.
Fangraphs has his velo as identical to last year. I’m getting an inkling that Henry and Socrates May be the same guy considering that comment about Lauer. Maybe a padres fan can chirp in about the velocity because I haven’t watched enough Eric Lauer to say for sure but I’m inclined to believe Fangraphs.
To trade for a guy with TOR stuff (albeit on a down year), you can’t just take away your top 4-5 prospects. It just doesn’t work like that. It takes talent to get talent, and moving 2nd and 3rd tier prospects for a guy who can easily be top 20 with better support and removed from a toxic club…it’s gonna cost at least 1-2 top level prospects.
Offering 3-4 filler prospects just isn’t realistic, just like asking for Tatis or Gore+ isn’t realistic. That said, I think it’d take a major prospect like Paddack and then some of the filler prospects to even get the interest of the Mets. There will be *plenty* of teams willing to take a run at Noah. I’m hoping that if the mets do move Syndergaard it is to SD because Cashman scares the hell out of me (and their prospects are pretty weak). I’m really hoping that SD, MIL, HOU, and ATL all get involved in the Mets pitching sweepstakes.
Wheeler is honestly the better value. He has filthy stuff and with a fresh start I can see him absolutely dominating as a #1 at times, with a floor of #3. His underlying stats are promising, and his being a rental will limit his prospect cost. I’d love to see a team like MIN or MIL go all in for Wheeler because the Mets are trash, but I would totally root for Noah on a non-NYY/BOS/HOU/LAD club.
This is a case of a players name being bigger than the actual player. Padres need to move on from this idea for the reason that they’ll be paying for the name brand, but can find similar value elsewhere at 1/4 the price.
Agree. Trading for name-brand players basically never works out (see Kemp, Matt)
As I noted on another site; I think that trading for Jon Gray of the Rockies would be a better idea. Gray is controlled through 2021 just like Thor, but would cost 1/2 the price or less.
Gray ain’t available Rocks are 2 games up on Pads for WC..
Wrong!!!
Padres are ahead of the Rockies. The Rockies are need of help in the bullpen along with first base. The Padres can help fill those holes.
You don’t give up SP in a playoff race for that though. I mean, when’s the last time you saw SP given up for that ever??
Yup sdpadsfan11, exactly
Can’t trade Thor right now; probably at all this season.
As good as everyone knows he is, he simply has not been this season; and the circling vultures will try and leverage that as much as possible (it’s business strategy)
Wilpon has been killing any progress the franchise makes for years so don’t expect much
ps: lol @ paying Bonilla more than Alonso
Give them Myers, Hedges and Mark Grant…
And they’ll give you Cano and Bonilla in return not syndergaard
Deal!…suckerrr
Why would you leave it to Brodie to make any trade? He’s an agent not a GM. Yes he has a Stanford degree but it’s in communications. He’s not an MBA or an attorney. His job was to sell the agency to clients. He didn’t write contracts. This guy is like a press secretary who’s job it is to put the best face on something. He’s a pretty face and a good communicator. He sold the two biggest dupes in baseball on himself. He lacks any experience within the management side of baseball until now and we see the results and they are not good. The Mets sold their fans on him while saving a few bucks. Same old Mets. To heal the Mets it starts at the top. That’s why we’re screwed.
Thor is one injury from having no value! They’ve spent way too much time trying to compete with their core they have now, and failed miserably! Trade DeGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler and maximize what you can while you can. They should’ve learned by the example Miami laid that holding off on rebuilding is usually disastrous. Maximize your farm through trading aging stars. They aren’t going to compete for at least another 4-5 years! Tear it down and start a rebuild!
The extent of the talks:
Team: “Hows Noah doing? He available?”
Mets: “He’s goooood and i dunnnnooo” *twirls hair like a teenage girl talking to boys at school*
I’d be surprised if anything actually happens beyond this tbh
So no gore and no patino? But you still want Noah? Mets better keep Noah and trade him in the off season. The brewers last year made the same mistake of not upgrading that rotation they fell one game short.
No. Certainly no Gore. Almost certainly no Patino. And I’m not a Pads fan. You’re not going to get a return for Syndergaard like he’s an ace.
At least, not until he starts pitching like one over a decent period of time.
Why not? I am a Braves fan but let’s compare…Is Thor better then then Quintana was when he was traded to the Cubs? YES! The White Sox got 2 top 100 prospects in Eloy Jimenez (#8) and Dylan Cease (#63) at the time of the trade plus 2 more guys.
So I think we can all agree Thor is better then Quintana…even with Thir not being as good as in the past…Then Gore should without a doubt be the starting point to the conversation. It would hurt from a prospect standpoint for the Padres no doubt…Just like as a Braves fan I wouldn’t want the Braves to give up either Pache or Andersen, but one of those might be the cost to get a controllable front line starter.
This guy gets it^
Yep. And we also have to remember how well Milwaukee started that season. Cubs wanted to make sure they took the division and did whatever it took.
With Syndergaard, some teams might look at him favorably over Stroman or Boyd or Bumgarner. If a bidding war ensues we could watch some good prospects change organizations over the next few weeks. The stronger the need, the stronger the prospects.
I’m not sure where you get the idea that Thor is better than Quintana was at the time of that deal, but I would disagree.
From April 2015-July 2017 when Q was traded, he had pitched 519 IP with a 3.52 ERA. At the time of his trade in mid-July of 2017, he had struggled to a 4.49 ERA in 104 IP, but still had 3.5 seasons of control remaining. From the beginning of 2017 to now, Thor has pitched 290 IP of 3.63 ERA. He has struggled this year to a 4.68 ERA in 106 IP and has 2.5 years of control remaining. If you judge players based on their results and not flamboyant hair, then Quintana was definitely more valuable in July 2017, than Syndergaard is today.
If you want to look at comparable SP that were recently traded, I suggest looking at the trades of Gerrit Cole and James Paxton. Both had 2 years of control remaining at the time of their trades and had better recent results than Syndergaard. Neither player returned anyone remotely close to what you are suggesting.
Quintana was 28 at the time of the trade. Syndergaard about to turn 27.
Might want to add Syndergaard’s 2016 numbers.
Some might like that Syndergaard pitched in the WS. Prior to the Cubs trade Quintana had no playoff experience.
I think most teams would prefer the experience of pitching full, healthy seasons. Before being traded Q was coming off of 4 straight 200+ IP seasons, whereas Syndergaard has never thrown more than 185 has 290 total over the past 2.5 seasons. Any decent GM will value that dependability over a single WS appearance years prior.
Judging a pitcher on 200IP per season is completely outdated. Here are some data to make my point:
Pitchers who pitched 200IP in a season:
2005: 50
2010: 45
2015: 28
2016: 15
2017: 15
2018: 13
So tell me again why 200IP matters?
Syndergaard has pitched at least 150 innings per season in 3 of his 4 full seasons and he is on track to pitch well over 150 this season. So again, his innings pitched aren’t actually relevant to the argument because pitchers are pitching less total innings, less innings per start, and there are fewer and fewer elite pitchers in 2019 than there were 3-4 years ago per the avg pitching stats….juiced ball or not.
Yeah I think we’d pass. Need better prospects in return
Thor is overrated. he’s trending in the wrong direction and a move to the AL isn’t going to help
The Cardinals should trade one of their self-over-evaluated prospects to the Mets for Syndergaard.
Nobody values the Cardinals prospects quite like the Cardinals do.
They should be sellers and get anything they possibly can for Ozuna (assuming he comes back healthy before the 31st) and for Carlos Martinez. Sellers because they don’t stand a chance against a team like the Dodgers this year.
You don’t sell when you are only a couple of games out of first place in your division, this is a ridiculous take. Should every team in the NL just stop competing and crown the Dodgers now?
They swept the Dodgers in a four game series already this year, this just helps to illustrate that anything can happen in baseball. The 2006 and 2011 Cardinals weren’t supposed to be able to compete with the Tigers in 06 and then the Phillies and the Brewers in 11. Somebody beats someone they aren’t supposed to every year. Baseball would be boring as hell of the team that is supposed to win always wins
Yeah, you’re right. The Cardinals are so competitive and built to win. Wake up and stop drinking the red Koolaid.
Being 2 games back from leading the division is the exact definition of being competitive, they could be in first place as early as Saturday night. There are a grand total of zero baseball teams that would be willing to sell with a division lead so close, why would you not want to take advantage of a division beating up on itself?
There’s going to be a lot of talent available at the deadline and the Cardinals have more salary space and prospect capital available to use than both the Brewers and the Cubs. No GM in their right mind would even consider selling if the standings are the same or better for the Cards at the deadline. It is illogical to expect them to give up without making a run based on the standings today.
“No GM in their right mind” – you said it perfectly. Thanks.
They said at least 6 teams… only mentioned Padres. Who are the other 5? MLBTR means tell us the rumor.
Baltimore, KC, Miami, Montreal, Chunichi Dragons
You gotta think it makes too much sense for it to be anyone but the padres right? Seems like a perfect match.
In his article on mlb.com, Morosi talks about the Mets getting a return for Syndergaard similar to what the Rays got for Chris Archer.
What did they get? A top 50 prospect, a former top 100 prospect that had struggled in the majors, and a former 1st round pick that was ranked outside the top 100 and playing in rookie ball.
What would that mean for the 6 teams mentioned in this article?
I think teams would look at the way that trade has worked out for Pittsburgh as a reason to not make that trade.
I only saw one team mentioned in the article.
It would mean the Padres giving up Morejon, Quantrill, and Potts or Edwards.
If you are a Padres fan, would that be worth it?
Earliest Mets are trading Thor is next summer if we are in same situation. Lineup can look like McNeil3B, Lindor SS, Cespedes LF, Alonso 1B, Conforto, CF,Renfroe RF, Rosario SS, Cano 2B.Nido C, P, Degrom, Thor, Wheeler (resign 4yrs 60 mil), Matz. Kay. Wheeler and Ramos traded now to Padres for Renfroe and Wilson Contreras little bro. Sign Lindor in the winter. Cespedes is playing for last big payday and coming off the books Nov 2020 and by xmas 2020 they trade or dump Cano to the Al. (pray). Then they sign a CF and JD Davis becomes 3B and the squirrel moves to 2B. Its all a conceivable notion, Lindor isn’t going to the Yankees, Bosox, Braves, Dodgers, Astros, Cubs, Nats. This can happen.
William Contreras is with the Braves and the Padres aren’t trading Renfroe for a rental and a guy who Mets fans on this site spend all day complaining about.
How did lindor get there?
Lindor is not a free agent.
Why re-sign Wheeler? May as well take some of your SS and pitching prospects and package a deal for Boyd and Jimenez if the plan is to compete next year.
I think if the Mets trade Thor they have to most certainly ask for any teams #1 prospect plus more. If it is the Padres then they have to get Gore. If it is the Braves they have to get Pache. If it is the Astros they have to get Whitley. That is just to start the conversation.
The Quintana trade could be another model to look at besides the Archer deal. I think we can all agree Thor is better then Q. So they should want a package similar or better.
I think the Braves have marked Pache, Andersen, and Waters as off limits so that would take them out of the running for Thor…I cant say that for sure about Preller and the Padres. He has made some “bold” moves in the past so I could see him trading Gore in a package for Thor. I definitely see the Astros including Whitley. Thor gives them a front line starter to replace Cole if they cant resign him.
So if the Mets are SERIOUS then I think someone will give them what they want.
Gore can be the ask, but if the Padres aren’t willing the Mets can pivot and get multiple other prospects; can’t get hung up on getting a teams “#1”, as all minor league systems are not created equal.
Plus, the Mets need to get numerous guys into the pipeline, they may be paying Cano $20 million to be a backup infielder by next year. Need cheap players to fill out the roster.
If Thor ends up in Houston and absorbs Verlander’s approach… that’s pretty scary. Verlander had an epiphany in his no-no in Toronto during his MVP season where he learned to hold some stuff back and he went from excellent to legendary. I know Noah hasn’t shown any signs of holding back but if he can learn to control that absurd arsenal he has the way Verlander did, he could still turn into one of the absolute top arms in the game. It’s frightening to think of how good he could be if that happens. I’m not holding my breath but as a fan of the game, I’d love to see him pitch more and throw less. His arm is as good as anyone in the game and if he connects those dots… he might be a HOF. I know I’m going to get ripped apart for that but I believe it 100%.
Solid post. HOU could turn Thor into a juggernaut. I like their prospects, but it would suck to root for Thor in a HOU uniform….
Such stupid logic. Padres’ #4 prospect is better than several teams’ #1 prospect.
Can always tell the guys that don’t actually read the article.
If the Mets do trade Thor, they will botch up the return. Same with Wheeler. I have zero confidence in the Wilpons and Brody to make this team relevant again in the near future, so they might as well trade away and start from scratch.
The Cardinals need a pitcher like Syndergaard in the worst way. However, they need a comparable Lefty starter too!!
Mets are in NO HURRY TO TRADE HIM ….
If you want him you’re going to OVER PAY
PADRES HAVE SUCKED FOR YEARS…
So have the Mets.
Mets made it to the World Series less than 5 years ago when was the last time the padres made the playoffs
Padres send Allen, Urias, and Baez to the Mets for Thor, Thor’s value is going down and they would be smart by getting two good young arms and a SS. With Alonzo, McNeil, and Urias they would have a good young infield.
Ignorant Padre fans like making fun of Mets. It’s sad they have stones to make fun of any tram being around 50 years winning 3 playoff series and 0 WS
Syndeergard has lost a lot since his rookie year when he was lights out! I would take him in a trade fro mid level prospects!
Sure that will fly lol
Syndergaards never been a pitcher you can count on to go close to 200 innings now his numbers are bad this year. I think Padres should see what they have in their young arms but if Urias, L Allen and a catcher like Blake hunt is not enough then time to grab someone else. Thats two top 100 prospects and a catcher ranked in our top 30.
2oo innings is nearly meaningless in today’s game. Look at my post earlier in the thread. Also, people talk about him being injured…but he is on pace to pitch more than 150 innings again this year, making it 4 of 5 years of at least 150 innings.
Look at his Similarity Score (originally developed by Bill James IIRC).
Here are the top 6 (as the guys below are older and less known to the avg baseball fan)
1. Jose Fernandez (966.6)
2. Blake Snell (959.2)
3. Luis Severino (958.6)
4. Aaron Nola (955.7)
5. Norwood Gibson (955.5)
6. Hyun-Jin Ryu (954.7)
That’s pretty stellar company.
Now lets look at how he compares for his age 25 year:
1. Sonny Gray (976.8)
2. Roy Oswalt (974.0)
3. Tim Lincecum (969.6)
4. George Winter (964.5)
5. Ewell Blackwell (963.8)
For fun…#10…Blake Snell (959.2)
So again I ask…why 200IP? Also, most people in this thread are severely under-estimating his career stats and over-estimating how much injuries have negatively impacting him. Dude has a 2.88 career FIP….his 3.23ERA is mostly due to having a horrible defense behind him.
He has averaged 22 starts a year in his first 4 seasons in the majors. That means he can have an effect on only 2/3rds of the games a healthy starter would.
If you can only stay healthy enough to affect 2/3 of the games, you don’t have nearly the value of a guy that starts 33-34 games per season.
Its not only about innings, its about starts.
He has averaged 6.06IP/game in his career, which in todays game is pretty standard. There is literally only 1 Max Scherzer and 1 Clayton Kershaw….who are absolute first ballot HOF’ers…they are basically unicorns. There are some other guys who can go 200….and they are mostly backend starters trying to win .500 of their games.
One of the closet comparisons I can think of is Tanaka on the Yankees
Syndergaard has 624IP in 103 starts. 6.06IP/g
Tanaka has 793IP in 130 starts: 6.19IP/g
Tanaka: 2 AS game, 5th ROY voting (2014), Cy-7th
Syndergaard: 1 AS game, 4th ROY voting (2015), Cy 8th, MVP-19th.
Would you take Tanaka’s MLB career numbers for a guy in your rotation? Well….Syndergaard has better career numbers basically across the board.
Tanaka:
3.62ERA, 117 ERA+, 3.85FIP, 1.112WHIP, 8.2H/9, 1.3HR/9, 8.6K/9 1.8BB/9 WAR: 17.4 (1 more season)
Syndergaard:
3.23ERA, 121ERA+, 2.88FIP, 1.157WHIP, 8.3H/9, 0.8HR/9, 9.7K/9, 2.1BB/9 WAR: 13.9
Again I ask…how is Syndergaard not a top 20 pitcher in MLB over the last 4 seasons? Freaking Tanaka has been great since coming into the league and he lags behind Syndergaard in most statistical categories. If the Mets weren’t such a horrific defensive team, Syndergaard would have a 3ERA or less…for his career.
You are completely missing the value of making 32-33 starts instead of 24-25. Those 8 missed starts are then made by a replacement level SP or it severely taxes your BP trying to piece together the innings. You also seem to just dismiss the multiple injuries Syndergaard has had. He has had one season where he was able to put together relatively good health and quality performance and it was 4 years ago. Since then, he has either missed 25% of the season or been average. None of this means Syndergaard doesn’t have value, it just means he doesn’t have the ace like value you seem to think he still has. The unfortunate problem for the Mets are all of the team reasons you give for Syndergaard not being able to perform like an ace are, and will still be, persistent over the next year plus. That means he will struggle to perform significantly better and build back up his value and this is probably around the peak of his trade value as a Met.