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Archives for July 2019

Latest On Francisco Cervelli

By Connor Byrne and Jeff Todd | July 12, 2019 at 8:40pm CDT

JULY 12: Cervelli now says that he does hope to return to working behind the plate. (Post via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, on Twitter.)

“Saying that I quit from my catcher responsibilities is inaccurate,” he writes. “My hope is to catch again.”

Cervelli goes on to explain that he is merely staying out from behind the dish for the present as “part of the process of recovery from several concussions that have forced me to stop and think about my health beyond my baseball years.” The long-time receiver says he loves the game too much not to try to “reinvent” himself and keep plugging.

There’s certainly some ambiguity here. Whether he was prompted to clarify his stance based upon contractual concerns or a genuine desire to get back behind the plate, there’s no doubting Cervelli’s heart. At this point, though, it seems uncertain at best whether he will again don the mask in the majors.

JULY 7: Pirates catcher Francisco Cervelli is giving up his career-long position because of chronic concussion issues. The 33-year-old told Dejan Kovacevic of DKPittsburghSports.com that he will no longer catch.

“That’s enough,” Cervelli stunningly revealed to Kovacevic. “This time is different. I can’t live like this.”

Cervelli has been on the injured list since suffering a concussion May 25. It’s at least the sixth he has incurred since his major league career began with the Yankees in 2008, Kovacevic notes. It’s unclear which position Cervelli will take next, though he emphasized to Kovacevic it was his decision – not the Pirates’ – to leave behind catching. Cervelli added he hopes to begin a rehab assignment at the Triple-A level in the coming weeks.

Cervelli, a Pirate since 2015, had been a respectable starting catcher for the club when he was healthy enough to man the position. He was at his best in 2015, a season in which he logged a tremendous 5.9 fWAR in 130 games. That compelled Pittsburgh to extend Cervelli in May 2016, when it awarded him a three-year, $33MM guarantee. Cervelli lived up to that pact as recently as last year, hitting .259/.378/.431 (125 wRC+) with 2.6 fWAR in 404 plate appearances and 104 games. Thanks in part to injuries, though, he got off to a slow start this season. As of now, he owns a .193/.247/.248 line (47 wRC+) across 123 PA.

With no obvious position anymore and Cervelli’s contract set to expire at season’s end, it seems likely this will be his final year with the Pirates. Speculatively, if he does return in 2019, he could try his hand as a reserve corner infielder. The Pirates have one of the majors’ premier first basemen, Josh Bell, and a capable starter at third in Colin Moran. Regardless of whether Cervelli shifts to either of those spots, it doesn’t seem he’ll garner much more playing time this year, and will now cede his customary position to Elias Diaz and Jacob Stallings.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Francisco Cervelli

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Max Muncy: Not A Fluke

By Connor Byrne | July 12, 2019 at 8:03pm CDT

Max Muncy rose from obscurity last year to become one of the majors’ most improbable success stories. The Athletics jettisoned Muncy in April 2017, a half-decade after they used a fifth-round draft pick on him. The Dodgers then scooped up Muncy on a minor league contract that has turned into one of the greatest low-risk deals in recent memory.

Muncy didn’t take a single at-bat with the Dodgers in his first year with the franchise, instead thriving for the entire season at the Triple-A level, but he broke out as a premier major leaguer in 2018. Muncy slashed a remarkable .263/.391/.582 (162 wRC+) with 35 home runs in just 481 plate appearances, all while seeing significant action at first and third base. The all-around package was worth an astounding 5.2 fWAR – the same amount Braves superstar Freddie Freeman totaled in 226 more trips to the plate.

Muncy was a good-not-great A’s prospect who wasn’t a remotely successful big leaguer prior to last season. As such, questions abounded over what he’d do for an encore this season after his eye-opening breakout in 2018. Three-plus months into the season, Muncy hasn’t quite been the force he was a year ago, but that’s a compliment to what he accomplished then – not an indictment on his current production. Having just earned the first All-Star nod of his career, Muncy is emphatically showing he’s not a fluke.

The 28-year-old has already accounted for 3.0 fWAR, good for a 20th-place tie among position players, through 359 trips to the plate. Once again, his offensive output has been fantastic, as the lefty’s slashing .265/.365/.529 (134 wRC+) with 22 homers. Muncy’s power has dropped in comparison to last year – his ISO has fallen from .319 to .265, and his launch angle has sunk from 17.8 degrees to 12.6 – though he has still been one of the game’s most imposing threats at the plate. Statcast backs up Muncy’s bottom-line production, evidenced in part by a .379 expected weighted on-base average that actually outdoes his .377 wOBA. Muncy’s xwOBA ranks in the league’s 90th percentile, while his hard-hit percentage (61st), expected batting average (73rd) and expected slugging percentage (83rd) are also comfortably above average.

Muncy, however, hasn’t achieved his resounding success the same way he did last year. A more aggressive approach (his swing rate’s up 5 percent since 2018) has helped lead to more swings and misses and fewer walks, yet Muncy is making more contact and striking out less. Unlike last season, Muncy’s doing more of his damage against right-handed pitchers than lefties. Once again, though, he has had little trouble with either, as shown by his 143 wRC+ versus southpaws and a 131 mark against righties.

For the second straight year, Muncy’s proving capable of helping his loaded team in multiple ways. The Dodgers, unafraid to heavily deploy players at two or more positions, have given Muncy between 23 and 46 appearances at first, second and third this year. He has risen to the challenge by offering plus defense at each position, per Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. Adding up his work at all three spots, Muncy has accounted for 10 DRS and a 2.4 UZR.

With Muncy’s help last year, the Dodgers won their sixth straight NL West crown and their second consecutive pennant. With Muncy’s help this year, they’re shoo-ins to take home their seventh division championship in a row. More importantly, he may aid in the club’s first World Series title since 1988. Not bad for a player who’s only two years removed from joining the Dodgers off the scrapheap.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals Max Muncy

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Reds See Themselves As Trade Deadline Buyers

By Jeff Todd | July 12, 2019 at 7:12pm CDT

Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams chatted over a few elements of the club’s trade deadline approach with C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (subscription link). Of particular note, he left no doubt of the organization’s intention to seek roster improvements over the next few weeks.

“We’re going to look around to see what we can do to make us better, which would put us in the buyer category,” says Williams. “We feel like we’re in the thick of the race so we think it’s important to see what we can do to improve the club,” he went on to explain.

The Reds have been much better since a terrible start to the season. But they don’t look much like a typical contender at 41-46. Fortunately, they’re far from buried due to the failure of any single NL Central rival to pull away from the pack. Entering play today, just 4.5 games separated the cellar-dwelling Cincinnati club from the pace-setting Cubs. (The second-place team in the NL West faces three times the deficit.)

It’s sensible for the Reds to continue pressing under the circumstances. They parted with some prospect capital for near-term improvements over the winter. While everything hasn’t gone according to plan, the club has little reason to pull out of the race now with a sell-off that likely wouldn’t net all that much future value.

That’s not to say that the Cincinnati front office intends an all-in approach. Williams says the club won’t “focus exclusively on this year, but we will be looking to see if we find deals that make us better.” With a determination to improve the club’s outlook now and in the near future, it seems that Williams and his staff will be most intrigued by controllable targets. (That said, he did not rule out entirely the possibility of limited rental acquisition efforts.)

If the Reds are in it to win it, then it seems the NL Central will have five buy-side clubs. The Pirates could yet pivot, or at least consider deals that improve their future outlook without stripping too much immediate talent from the roster. But they won’t be true sellers if they stay within a few games of the pace. A rapid turn from the Cincinnati org or one of its competitors could yet change the math, but it appears likeliest that the full pack will remain in the chase.

It is fascinating to consider the ways in which this dynamic will shape the market. For one thing, most if not all of the potential rental targets on these rosters won’t be put up for sale. Even if most of the teams only operate as limited buyers, all will presumably be looking into adding assets. That’ll skew the overall market development quite a bit — particularly if the NL Central teams engage in any amount of direct transactional competition or hot stove one-upmanship with their inter-division competitors.

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Cincinnati Reds

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A Breakout Reliever Emerges For Rays

By Connor Byrne | July 12, 2019 at 6:54pm CDT

Rays reliever Emilio Pagan was not the headliner in a three-team offseason trade featuring Tampa Bay, Oakland and Texas. That honor went to infielder Jurickson Profar, whom the Athletics acquired from the Rangers in the swap. However, between Pagan and Profar – the two major leaguers involved in the deal – it’s the former who has been the more valuable player so far in 2019.

Although Pagan just debuted in the majors in 2017, he’s already something of a journeyman. Pagan spent his rookie season as a useful piece of the Mariners’ bullpen before going to the Athletics in a trade prior to the 2018 campaign. While Pagan wasn’t that effective in his lone year with the A’s, he has emerged as one of the Rays’ go-to relievers since they recalled him from the minors in mid-April.

Pagan, a 28-year-old right-hander, has recorded a 1.75 ERA with 11.75 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 in 36 frames, making him one of the majors’ premier relievers in the run prevention and K/BB categories. Pagan also ranks 11th among all pitchers in weighted on-base average against (.221) and an even better third in xwOBA (.220), trailing only elite relievers Josh Hader and Kirby Yates in the latter department.

Pagan’s transformation into a great reliever, at least this year, has come with a change in pitch mix. He has always leaned on two offerings – a four-seam fastball and a slider – but the usage of each has changed significantly since last year. Pagan’s throwing his four-seamer 55.5 percent of the time, down from 64.5 in 2018, and has upped his slider usage from 29.4 percent to 40.6 in the same span. Both pitches have produced excellent results to this point, especially his fastball. Hitters have mustered an awful .200 wOBA/.156 xwOBA against it, thanks in part to an increase in velocity. The pitch averaged 93.8 mph in 2018, but it has shot to 95.4 this season. Unsurprisingly, the whiff percentage on Pagan’s four-seamer has risen substantially since 2018, having gone from 25.8 to 34.9 percent.

As you’d expect, with his strikeout rate and velocity at an all-time high, Pagan has fooled more hitters this year. Pagan’s chase rate is almost 4 percent better than his career mark, hitters have made 4-plus percent less contact against him than usual, and his swinging-strike rate is roughly 2.5 percent superior to his lifetime mean. While the average reliever has drawn swings and misses at an 11.8 percent clip this season, Pagan’s at 17.1 – good for ninth in the majors.

When batters have made contact against Pagan this season, it hasn’t been as easy to elevate the ball. At a piddly 24.9 percent, Pagan posted the majors’ last-ranked groundball rate among relievers from 2017-18. That number has elevated to an even 40.0 since he joined the Rays. With help from his uptick in grounders, home runs have become rarer against Pagan, who rated last among relievers in HRs per nine (1.60) over his first two seasons. He’s now surrendering just one per nine, which checks in well south of the league average (1.34).

It’s true Pagan is benefiting from a .224 batting average on balls in play and a 90.2 percent strand rate, two figures that could be difficult to sustain. But he’s handling both same-handed and lefty hitters, and Statcast is quite bullish on his work. At this point, Pagan looks like one of the majors’ most underrated additions of last winter and someone who could help pitch the playoff-contending Rays to the postseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals Tampa Bay Rays Emilio Pagan

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Zack Cozart To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

By Jeff Todd | July 12, 2019 at 6:11pm CDT

6:05pm: GM Billy Eppler says that Cozart will not return to action this year, as J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group was among those to tweet. The club is reinstating backstop Kevan Smith from the IL to take the place of injured catcher Jonathan Lucroy.

4:55pm: The Angels announced today that infielder Zack Cozart will undergo an “arthroscopic debridement of his left shoulder.” He has been shifted to the 60-day injured list, making roster space for today’s earlier transactions.

It’s not clear at the moment just what the expectations are moving forward for Cozart, whose tenure in Los Angeles has been an unmitigated disaster. There is no indication at present whether he will attempt to return later this season, though there does not appear to be much cause for optimism at this point.

Cozart had already been out for about a month when he revealed that his attempt to return without surgery had stalled out. After a few more weeks of waiting, he’ll now go under the knife. His three-year, $38MM contract expires at the end of the 2020 campaign.

When they signed him, the Halos hoped that Cozart would team with Andrelton Simmons on the left side of the infield to form an outstanding defensive and solid offensive pairing. Instead, Cozart has struggled to stay on the field and performed miserably when he has been able to suit up. The 33-year-old owns a meager .190/.261/.296 batting line in his 360 plate appearances in Anaheim.

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Los Angeles Angels Kevan Smith Zack Cozart

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Mets Release Matt Kemp

By Jeff Todd | July 12, 2019 at 5:58pm CDT

The Mets have released outfielder Matt Kemp, according to the International League transactions page. He had been with the organization on a minors deal.

Kemp, 34, only took 36 plate appearances in eight games with the Mets’ top affiliate. He turned in an unremarkable .235/.278/.324 slash there and obviously was not viewed as a candidate to ascend to the MLB roster. Before that, he struggled to a .200/.210/.283 batting line in 62 major-league plate appearances with the Reds.

A broken rib limited Kemp earlier this season. That seems also to be the cause for his unavailability at Triple-A Syracuse. If he’s able to get back to health, it seems likely that some other organization will take a shot on a minors deal. Kemp did pop 21 long balls and carry a 122 wRC+ in over five hundred trips to the plate with the Dodgers in 2018. That said, the former star’s long-term outlook in the game is obviously in doubt.

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New York Mets Transactions Matt Kemp

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Indians Acquire Phil Maton From Padres

By Jeff Todd | July 12, 2019 at 5:47pm CDT

The Indians have acquired righty Phil Maton from the Padres, per a club announcement. International bonus poll space is headed to San Diego in the deal.

In other moves, the Friars announced that that they have selected the contract of righty Andres Munoz. That explains the need to free a 40-man roster. Catcher Austin Allen is also coming to the majors, with backstop Austin Hedges and lefty Eric Lauer being moved to the bereavement list.

Maton, 26, has appeared at the MLB level in each of the past three seasons. Through 114 2/3 total innings, he carries a meager 5.02 ERA — a mark that has skyrocketed this year, in particular.

That said, there are still reasons for some optimism. Maton has shown an ability to generate swings and misses (13.3% for his career). And he has dominated at Triple-A in recent years.

For the Indians, it was easy to take a shot and add some depth. Righty Cody Anderson won’t be returning to action this year anyway. He was bumped to the 60-day injured list to create roster space.

On the Friars’ side of the deal, it’ll be interesting to see what the team has in Munoz. The live-armed 20-year-old has shown intriguing K/BB numbers in the upper minors this year. Through 35 2/3 innings, split about evenly between Double-A and Triple-A, he owns a 3.03 ERA with 58 strikeouts and 18 free passes.

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Cleveland Guardians San Diego Padres Transactions Austin Hedges Eric Lauer Phil Maton

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Rangers Not Ruling Out Mike Minor Trade

By Jeff Todd | July 12, 2019 at 5:34pm CDT

Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels indicated today that he is not willing to rule out a trade of top starter Mike Minor, as TR Sullivan of MLB.com was among those to cover on Twitter.

While Daniels also made clear he isn’t particularly inclined to move the organization’s best pitcher, it’s notable that he’s adopting such an open stance on the subject at this point of the season. With just over two weeks to go until the trade deadline, the Rangers are still sitting just 2.5 games out of Wild Card position. Though the eight-game gap in the division likely can’t be bridged, it’s not inconceivable that the Texas club will be in shouting distance by the end of the month.

All things considered, it’s a practical and realistic position to take for the Rangers’ top baseball decisionmaker. When he addressed the club’s deadline stance a month ago, Daniels said he intended to “stay true to our mind-set of trying to balance, continue to place a priority on the next few years.” He wouldn’t be swayed much by the standings, he further indicated, explaining: “overall we know which direction we’re going in.”

For an organization that hopes to reload with young talent while remaining competitive in the near-term, this has been a bit of a dream season. Not only has the club hit on several (but not all) free-agent investments, and seen strides from some (again, not all) key young players, it has put itself in position for a legitimate run at a playoff spot.

As for Minor … he fits somewhere in the middle on all fronts. Signed to a three-year deal before the 2018 season, he has outperformed all expectations. The $9.5MM salary he’s due this year and next seems to be a bargain now that Minor is through 117 innings of 2.54 ERA ball on the season. While the Rangers would like to continue enjoying Minor’s presence atop a rotation that still has quite a few questions, the chance of cashing in obviously tantalizes as well.

There’s one other possibility, of course: an extension. But Minor is 31 years of age and has a worrying history of arm maladies. Whether or not he’d be amenable to sorting out a new deal isn’t clear, but the Rangers would no doubt need to tread carefully for a contract to present a clear value proposition. At this point, it seems hard to view the possibility of an extension as a significant factor.

Ultimately, Daniels indicates more that he’s open to listening to offers than preparing to shop the veteran lefty. There’s a notable difference there, at least in theory. But the key question will arise at the point of decision. Will the Texas organization stand on a hefty asking price or will it ultimately take the best reasonable offer it’s able to procure?

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Texas Rangers Mike Minor

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Braves Activate Anthony Swarzak, Place Grant Dayton On 10-Day IL

By Jeff Todd | July 12, 2019 at 4:46pm CDT

The Braves have activated righty Anthony Swarzak from the injured list, per an announcement. To create an opening, the club placed southpaw Grant Dayton on the 10-day injured list with a fractured big toe.

It’s nice to see Swarzak returning quickly from a shoulder malady. After all, he has quickly become an important piece of the puzzle for a relief unit that still clamors for some mid-season additions.

That said, the loss of Dayton makes for an unwelcome development. The 31-year-old southpaw has shown some promise since returning to the majors for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery. Despite showing reduced velocity from his prior work in the bigs, Dayton has generated a 12.4% swinging-strike rate and compiled an 11:3 K/BB rate in 8 1/3 innings.

Dayton will be sidelined for at least a month, per David O’Brien of The Athletic (via Twitter). That will rob the club of a chance to take a closer look at him before finalizing its deadline plans. Regardless, the Atlanta front office seems to have a nice volume of internal pieces to work with. Depth isn’t a particular concern so much as is quality in high-leverage spots. The trick will be deciding how many and what kind of outside additions to make.

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Atlanta Braves Anthony Swarzak Grant Dayton

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Astros Activate Joe Smith, Move Carlos Correa To 60-Day IL

By Jeff Todd | July 12, 2019 at 4:18pm CDT

The Astros have activated righty Joe Smith for the first time this season, per a club announcement. He’ll take the spot of Cy Sneed, who was optioned down.

To create 40-man space, shortstop Carlos Correa was bumped to the 60-day IL. Correa will not be eligible to return before the end of the month, though he was not expected to be ready by that point anyway. He’s said to be nearing a rehab assignment as his fractured rib recovers.

Smith has been sidelined all year after suffering an Achilles tear over the offseason. It’s anyone’s guess what he’ll be able to contribute, but the ’Stros have good cause to find out. The 35-year-old sidearmer is due $8MM this season. He was a solid contributor in 2018, when he turned in 45 2/3 innings of 3.74 ERA ball with 9.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.

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Houston Astros Carlos Correa Cy Sneed Joe Smith

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