Headlines

  • Phillies Sign Walker Buehler To Minors Contract
  • Red Sox Extend Aroldis Chapman
  • Administrative Leave For Emmanuel Clase, Luis Ortiz Extended “Until Further Notice”
  • Cubs To Sign Carlos Santana
  • Red Sox Release Walker Buehler
  • Pirates Place Isiah Kiner-Falefa On Outright Waivers
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

Remove Ads
  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2026-27 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

A Breakout Reliever Emerges For Rays

By Connor Byrne | July 12, 2019 at 6:54pm CDT

Rays reliever Emilio Pagan was not the headliner in a three-team offseason trade featuring Tampa Bay, Oakland and Texas. That honor went to infielder Jurickson Profar, whom the Athletics acquired from the Rangers in the swap. However, between Pagan and Profar – the two major leaguers involved in the deal – it’s the former who has been the more valuable player so far in 2019.

Although Pagan just debuted in the majors in 2017, he’s already something of a journeyman. Pagan spent his rookie season as a useful piece of the Mariners’ bullpen before going to the Athletics in a trade prior to the 2018 campaign. While Pagan wasn’t that effective in his lone year with the A’s, he has emerged as one of the Rays’ go-to relievers since they recalled him from the minors in mid-April.

Pagan, a 28-year-old right-hander, has recorded a 1.75 ERA with 11.75 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 in 36 frames, making him one of the majors’ premier relievers in the run prevention and K/BB categories. Pagan also ranks 11th among all pitchers in weighted on-base average against (.221) and an even better third in xwOBA (.220), trailing only elite relievers Josh Hader and Kirby Yates in the latter department.

Pagan’s transformation into a great reliever, at least this year, has come with a change in pitch mix. He has always leaned on two offerings – a four-seam fastball and a slider – but the usage of each has changed significantly since last year. Pagan’s throwing his four-seamer 55.5 percent of the time, down from 64.5 in 2018, and has upped his slider usage from 29.4 percent to 40.6 in the same span. Both pitches have produced excellent results to this point, especially his fastball. Hitters have mustered an awful .200 wOBA/.156 xwOBA against it, thanks in part to an increase in velocity. The pitch averaged 93.8 mph in 2018, but it has shot to 95.4 this season. Unsurprisingly, the whiff percentage on Pagan’s four-seamer has risen substantially since 2018, having gone from 25.8 to 34.9 percent.

As you’d expect, with his strikeout rate and velocity at an all-time high, Pagan has fooled more hitters this year. Pagan’s chase rate is almost 4 percent better than his career mark, hitters have made 4-plus percent less contact against him than usual, and his swinging-strike rate is roughly 2.5 percent superior to his lifetime mean. While the average reliever has drawn swings and misses at an 11.8 percent clip this season, Pagan’s at 17.1 – good for ninth in the majors.

When batters have made contact against Pagan this season, it hasn’t been as easy to elevate the ball. At a piddly 24.9 percent, Pagan posted the majors’ last-ranked groundball rate among relievers from 2017-18. That number has elevated to an even 40.0 since he joined the Rays. With help from his uptick in grounders, home runs have become rarer against Pagan, who rated last among relievers in HRs per nine (1.60) over his first two seasons. He’s now surrendering just one per nine, which checks in well south of the league average (1.34).

It’s true Pagan is benefiting from a .224 batting average on balls in play and a 90.2 percent strand rate, two figures that could be difficult to sustain. But he’s handling both same-handed and lefty hitters, and Statcast is quite bullish on his work. At this point, Pagan looks like one of the majors’ most underrated additions of last winter and someone who could help pitch the playoff-contending Rays to the postseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Share 0 Retweet 2 Send via email0

MLBTR Originals Tampa Bay Rays Emilio Pagan

Zack Cozart To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery
Main
Reds See Themselves As Trade Deadline Buyers
View Comments (7)
Post a Comment

7 Comments

  1. nrutko40

    6 years ago

    Pretty sure you meant to write this article about Colin Poche… but whatever.

    Reply
  2. Ruben_Tomorrow 2

    6 years ago

    You can just see Tampa trading this guy in the offseason and selling high on him.

    Reply
    • jleve618

      6 years ago

      Smart move.

      Reply
  3. oldoak33

    6 years ago

    Well someone was bound to breakout. They only showcase thirty five pitchers a year.

    1
    Reply
  4. matt4baseball

    6 years ago

    Pagan has been the most reliable RP we have. He doesn’t walk guys and keeps the ball in the yard, We need more pitchers just like him!

    Reply
    • kc38

      6 years ago

      Did give up 2 huge homers to the Yankees last series

      Reply
  5. jessecc08

    6 years ago

    Tampa knows how to cultivate relievers

    Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.

Log in Register

    Top Stories

    Phillies Sign Walker Buehler To Minors Contract

    Red Sox Extend Aroldis Chapman

    Administrative Leave For Emmanuel Clase, Luis Ortiz Extended “Until Further Notice”

    Cubs To Sign Carlos Santana

    Red Sox Release Walker Buehler

    Pirates Place Isiah Kiner-Falefa On Outright Waivers

    Randy Rodriguez Recommended To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

    Padres Place Xander Bogaerts On IL With Foot Fracture

    Cardinals To Promote Jimmy Crooks

    Red Sox To Promote Payton Tolle

    Corey Seager To Undergo Appendectomy, Not Ruled Out For Season

    Frankie Montas To Undergo UCL Surgery

    Guardians Release Carlos Santana

    Brewers Place Trevor Megill On IL Due To Flexor Strain, Sign Erick Fedde

    Guardians Place Carlos Santana On Outright Waivers

    Astros Reinstate Yordan Alvarez From Injured List

    Nathan Eovaldi Likely Out For Season Due To Rotator Cuff Strain

    Mets To Promote Jonah Tong

    BBWAA To Institute Relief Pitcher Of The Year Award In 2026

    Zack Wheeler Recommended For Thoracic Outlet Syndrome Surgery

    Recent

    MLBTR Chat Transcript

    Royals To Promote Carter Jensen

    Brewers Sign Luis Urias To Minor League Contract

    Astros To Activate Luis Garcia From 60-Day IL On Monday

    Phillies Sign Walker Buehler To Minors Contract

    Red Sox Extend Aroldis Chapman

    Reds To Promote Sal Stewart

    Phillies Claim Tim Mayza

    Cubs Claim Aaron Civale

    Blue Jays Claim Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Every MLB Trade In July
    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android App Store Google Play

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Remove Ads, Support Our Writers
    • Front Office Originals
    • Front Office Fantasy Baseball
    • MLBTR Podcast
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2026-27 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • RSS/Twitter Feeds By Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

    hide arrows scroll to top

    Register

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version