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Max Muncy: Not A Fluke

By Connor Byrne | July 12, 2019 at 8:03pm CDT

Max Muncy rose from obscurity last year to become one of the majors’ most improbable success stories. The Athletics jettisoned Muncy in April 2017, a half-decade after they used a fifth-round draft pick on him. The Dodgers then scooped up Muncy on a minor league contract that has turned into one of the greatest low-risk deals in recent memory.

Muncy didn’t take a single at-bat with the Dodgers in his first year with the franchise, instead thriving for the entire season at the Triple-A level, but he broke out as a premier major leaguer in 2018. Muncy slashed a remarkable .263/.391/.582 (162 wRC+) with 35 home runs in just 481 plate appearances, all while seeing significant action at first and third base. The all-around package was worth an astounding 5.2 fWAR – the same amount Braves superstar Freddie Freeman totaled in 226 more trips to the plate.

Muncy was a good-not-great A’s prospect who wasn’t a remotely successful big leaguer prior to last season. As such, questions abounded over what he’d do for an encore this season after his eye-opening breakout in 2018. Three-plus months into the season, Muncy hasn’t quite been the force he was a year ago, but that’s a compliment to what he accomplished then – not an indictment on his current production. Having just earned the first All-Star nod of his career, Muncy is emphatically showing he’s not a fluke.

The 28-year-old has already accounted for 3.0 fWAR, good for a 20th-place tie among position players, through 359 trips to the plate. Once again, his offensive output has been fantastic, as the lefty’s slashing .265/.365/.529 (134 wRC+) with 22 homers. Muncy’s power has dropped in comparison to last year – his ISO has fallen from .319 to .265, and his launch angle has sunk from 17.8 degrees to 12.6 – though he has still been one of the game’s most imposing threats at the plate. Statcast backs up Muncy’s bottom-line production, evidenced in part by a .379 expected weighted on-base average that actually outdoes his .377 wOBA. Muncy’s xwOBA ranks in the league’s 90th percentile, while his hard-hit percentage (61st), expected batting average (73rd) and expected slugging percentage (83rd) are also comfortably above average.

Muncy, however, hasn’t achieved his resounding success the same way he did last year. A more aggressive approach (his swing rate’s up 5 percent since 2018) has helped lead to more swings and misses and fewer walks, yet Muncy is making more contact and striking out less. Unlike last season, Muncy’s doing more of his damage against right-handed pitchers than lefties. Once again, though, he has had little trouble with either, as shown by his 143 wRC+ versus southpaws and a 131 mark against righties.

For the second straight year, Muncy’s proving capable of helping his loaded team in multiple ways. The Dodgers, unafraid to heavily deploy players at two or more positions, have given Muncy between 23 and 46 appearances at first, second and third this year. He has risen to the challenge by offering plus defense at each position, per Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. Adding up his work at all three spots, Muncy has accounted for 10 DRS and a 2.4 UZR.

With Muncy’s help last year, the Dodgers won their sixth straight NL West crown and their second consecutive pennant. With Muncy’s help this year, they’re shoo-ins to take home their seventh division championship in a row. More importantly, he may aid in the club’s first World Series title since 1988. Not bad for a player who’s only two years removed from joining the Dodgers off the scrapheap.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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61 Comments

  1. selw0nk 2

    6 years ago

    It would have been nice if the A’s didn’t let him go.

    Reply
  2. Roxman

    6 years ago

    Yes, he is a fluke. Only thing he can do is hit homers. His defense sucks and probably the reason his WAR is so high is because he plays for the Dodgers

    Reply
    • DirtbagBlues

      6 years ago

      Do you understand how WAR works? Hell, did you even read the article?

      10
      Reply
      • 2bbige

        6 years ago

        Really…. talk a post lacking poignance and screaming sour grapes. Looking at that handle, perhaps its chemically impaired?

        Reply
    • kenleyfornia2

      6 years ago

      Yes with a .391 OBP last year and .366 this year he does nothing but hit HRs. No other good aspect of his game

      3
      Reply
    • mlb1225

      6 years ago

      You’re clearly a troll, but I’ll bite anyways. Muncy has had positive marks at first, second, and third base. He has a solid. 366 OBP, and WAR has no correlation to the team you are on. Mike Trout could be on the Royals, and still have a 10 WAR season.

      Reply
    • fox471 Dave

      6 years ago

      Are you out of your mind, Roxman?

      Reply
    • laswagn

      6 years ago

      Can’t stand homers! Love the game bro, not the team!

      Reply
    • Chassoo

      6 years ago

      What have you been watching? His defense is much improved. Have you seen some of the plays he’s been making at 2nd base?

      1
      Reply
  3. JerseyShoreScore

    6 years ago

    Or you can rely on evidence and you can see that Muncy has been a PLUS defender at multiple positions this year. You are entitled to your own OPINION. However, you are not entitled to your own FACTS! Nice try. Troll!

    Reply
    • iamhector24

      6 years ago

      Sometimes on these pages fans try to sound smart by bringing up defense. Since most don’t pay that close attention to it there’s less of a chance that someone will call you out. Bravo to you for that super kick of facts lol.

      Reply
    • retire21

      6 years ago

      Wait. I can’t have my own facts?! I thought that was a thing now.

      Reply
  4. Balk

    6 years ago

    Well, I can say this, his situational hitting sucks with runners in scoring position. 5 of his homers have been vs Colorado, 4 San Diego, 2 San Francisco. He does play in a band box where balls fly there in LA. I think if he was still an As player he wouldn’t have the numbers he has now.

    3
    Reply
    • SFGiants74

      6 years ago

      I’m not a Dodgers fan by any means. But, Dodgers Stadium is by no means a band box. It is statistically one of the harder places to hit.

      5
      Reply
      • cornnut

        6 years ago

        Absolutely

        Reply
    • fox471 Dave

      6 years ago

      What is this, moron night? Dodger Stadium a “bandbox?”

      2
      Reply
      • laswagn

        6 years ago

        A lot of clowns out today.

        3
        Reply
        • Balk

          6 years ago

          The only clown is you fool

          1
          Reply
      • Balk

        6 years ago

        Yeah it is moron night, you just made it that way, balls jump on hot nights, and more so in the day. Typical mouthy kid! Mom must not of disciplined you enough.

        1
        Reply
        • Sid Bream

          6 years ago

          have……

          3
          Reply
        • imindless

          6 years ago

          This guy cant even speak english let alone comment on a team and player he hasnt even seen play. Just go away troll

          2
          Reply
        • Balk

          6 years ago

          I’ve seen the dodgers play before your daddy was probably born kid, so keep swinging your tee ball bat, and go cry to mommy, go to bed now troll, it’s past your bed time crybaby!

          1
          Reply
        • jdgoat

          6 years ago

          Wow. You say something that’s wrong, get called out for it, and then accuse others of trolling or crying. Hopefully you’ll wake up tomorrow with your hangover and a little regret after reading this thread.

          3
          Reply
        • Balk

          6 years ago

          Wow, I woke up and still realize that what I said is not at all wrong. Colorado, Chicago, and Cincinnati, with about five others are the easiest to hit homers out, everyone else until you get to San Francisco, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Seattle, are not at all that bad a place to hit, especially with those winds in LA, so the only ones crying are the ones that want to knit pick someone’s statement about a ball park. The post was about Muncy, and him probably not being as good if he were still an As player. Read up.

          Reply
        • BlueSkyLA

          6 years ago

          What winds in LA?

          Nobody has to nitpick to find something wrong with what you said because you are always so willing to add a brand new head-scratcher.

          Reply
      • awall

        6 years ago

        exactly!

        Reply
    • fox471 Dave

      6 years ago

      Atta boy! Be the last human clown shoe.

      Reply
      • Balk

        6 years ago

        Go home to mommy kid. This isn’t tee ball

        Reply
        • thelegendofmike

          6 years ago

          Just. Stop.

          2
          Reply
        • Balk

          6 years ago

          Can’t stand a sniveling little kid. Just because he doesn’t like what he hears about facts, they resort to “go away troll!” Bunch of criers!

          Reply
    • aamatho18

      6 years ago

      You’re right. His hitting with RISP hasn’t been great this year, but in high leverage situations he’s hitting .279/.418/.959. Depends on your definition of clutch I guess.

      1
      Reply
      • Balk

        6 years ago

        And his high leverage situations aren’t as often as with runners on in middle innings. I mean he’s only got like what, a couple years service time? In no way am I saying he hasn’t been a good shot in the arm for the club, but if he puts up those numbers next year, he’s no fluke.

        1
        Reply
    • awall

      6 years ago

      You must be a 14 year old hater. Dodger stadium is a well known “pitchers park.” So it’s even more impressive the amount of HR’s hit at home.

      1
      Reply
      • Balk

        6 years ago

        What the hell are you talking about? I’m old enough to be your daddy son! Maybe even your grandpa! Dodger park the balls fly there kid! Go to Oracle park to see a pitcher friendly park. Dodger stadium is like the 8 th hardest place to hit. Get out of here.

        Reply
        • jdgoat

          6 years ago

          You went from bandbox to 8th hardest (probably not true anyways)?

          Reply
        • BlueSkyLA

          6 years ago

          It isn’t true. Park factors can be measured at least ten different ways, but to just pick runs scored, Dodger Stadium is #22 so far this year, was #26 last year and #17 the year before that. In terms of hits in those same years: 17, 25, 21. And if for some reason you only care about home runs: 9, 11, 15. So taken together, Dodger Stadium is moderately pitcher-friendly. Not nearly so much as it used to be, but still somewhat.

          Reply
        • Vicv

          6 years ago

          No no. Dodger stadium is a pitchers park. Everybody knows that. Give the kid some credit. He has worked his a$$ off and is playing good ball. He is no fluke. Glad he is a dodger and I hope he gets a pay day soon.

          Reply
        • Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA

          6 years ago

          Ehhh it’s definitely not a ban box, but it’s also not the pitchers park it used to especially with these balls. It plays more hitter friendly during the day. When it doesn’t rain and there’s no moisture in the air, much caused by the drought, then the marine layer just isn’t the same as years past. So the moderate pitchers park plays as a fair description.

          Reply
  5. ElMagoN9ne

    6 years ago

    Who said he was a fluke? He’s got a huge raise coming his way. Might be too much for the Dodgers can afford.

    Reply
    • kenleyfornia2

      6 years ago

      The Dodgers can afford anyone they want and he has 3 years before free agency

      Reply
    • BudLightKnight

      6 years ago

      He not going to be a free agent for a long time you are aware of that correct? He’s still pre-arb right now I’m pretty sure.

      Reply
      • ElMagoN9ne

        6 years ago

        Pre-arb does mean much these days.
        Kyle Seager
        Eloy Jimenez
        Evan Longoria
        All got huge contracts before they ever played a ML Game.
        Giving him 7 years and 160mil wouldn’t be a shock to any

        Reply
        • aamatho18

          6 years ago

          They were also much much younger than Muncy is. There’s absolutely no correlation between those guys contracts and Muncy’s future ones.

          1
          Reply
        • ElMagoN9ne

          6 years ago

          That doesn’t mean he can’t get all his arb years bought out for a long term deal.

          Reply
    • SFGiants74

      6 years ago

      Lots of players have one great year. Ever hear of the term ‘Career Year’. Sustaining that over multiple seasons, or a career, is different matter.

      Reply
  6. blueblood42

    6 years ago

    You do know they call it a pitcher’s park right?

    1
    Reply
    • mlb1225

      6 years ago

      Good thing Muncy has better splits away than at home.

      Reply
  7. homeunderdog

    6 years ago

    muncy is a clown and a fluke.

    Reply
    • fox471 Dave

      6 years ago

      Said the human set of clown shoes.

      Reply
    • thelegendofmike

      6 years ago

      Please stop using different usernames to troll this site. I’m sure there are more rewarding ways to spend your time.

      Reply
  8. laswagn

    6 years ago

    I thought his last season was a fluke to be honest, I mean who wouldn’t? I’m glad he proceed me wrong, and he was just a late bloomer!

    Reply
    • laswagn

      6 years ago

      *proved

      Reply
  9. Baseballfreak

    6 years ago

    First of all, anyone that calls Dodger Stadium a bandbox must not even watch baseball! Everyone knows it’s a pitcher’s park, hence why Giancarlo Stanton wanted to play in Yankee Stadium! That’s the difference between a bandbox and a ballpark! Secondly, if Muncy is such a fluke why is his numbers not declining drastically? Why did he make the All Star team? I don’t think you make this honor just because of your team affiliation. Please get over your infatuation with hating teams cloud your mind with stupid and unmitigated thoughts such as this!

    Reply
    • Bocephus

      6 years ago

      “hence why Giancarlo Stanton wanted to play in Yankee Stadium” The Dodgers never made an offer for Stanton.

      1
      Reply
  10. julyn82001

    6 years ago

    Max Muncy quite did not develop with the A’s. The team gave him opportunities though. It just did not happen while in Oakland…

    Reply
  11. 22jclark

    6 years ago

    Jesus, a lot of people started drinking early today. This thread is a hotttttt mess. I dislike the Dodgers and I dislike Muncy but I must admit, the dude seems pretty legit. Big ups to Max, the Funky Muncy. go Giants!

    Reply
  12. slash78

    6 years ago

    Is Muncy a fluke? No, But there is something else going on. How did he double the percentage of HRs he’s hitting from 2017 as a 26 y/o repeating Triple-A a third year in a row and the NL in 2018?

    If you say good coaching or healthy living, I’m not buying it.

    Reply
    • BlueSkyLA

      6 years ago

      This discussion was already circling the porcelain receptacle. A little late to be adding a conspiracy theory.

      1
      Reply
  13. zachgwest

    6 years ago

    Max should focus only on second. He can play that position especially with more reps. Pollock needs to go he’s messing everything up.

    Reply
    • Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA

      6 years ago

      Kind of like Cano hitting because he took PEDs, am I right? Pollock wouldn’t be the first guy to struggle out the gates, after signing a lucrative contact. He spent 60 days not being able to do anything, clearly he is going to need some room to get his timing back. Pollock “messing” everything up in a one game sample size is a ridiculous statement. Regardless, With Taylor hitting and Lux in the wings I’m not sure there is going to be as much a need for Muncy to work in at 2nd. I hate the thought, but really he might see more reps giving Turner 1-2 days off a week as they try to keep everyone fresh. Pollock will be fine, he doesn’t even need to be a superstar just a comp piece that lengths the lineup. It hasn’t messed anything up, but inserting three guys into a lineup who haven’t seen many ABs as of late will need some patience.

      Reply
  14. dodgersvictoryagain

    6 years ago

    Muncys legit , give him his due A’s fan.

    Reply

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