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Emilio Pagan

Reds Re-Sign Emilio Pagán

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December 4th: The Reds officially announced the Pagán signing today.

December 3rd: The Reds are reportedly bringing back closer Emilio Pagán on a two-year, $20MM contract. The deal, which is pending a physical, allows the Ballengee Group client to opt out after next season. Cincinnati’s 40-man roster count will climb to 39 once the signing is finalized.

Pagán returns on another two-year deal after one of the best seasons of his career. The Reds surprisingly signed him to a $16MM contract over the 2023-24 offseason. There was obvious risk in adding a fly-ball pitcher to work in high-leverage spots at one of the sport’s most hitter-friendly parks. Pagán didn’t post great numbers and missed a couple months with a lat injury in 2024, so he had an easy call to bypass an opt-out and return to Cincinnati.

This year went a lot more smoothly. Pagán took over the closer role from Alexis Díaz and recorded a career-high 32 saves. He did blow six save chances but had a strong season overall, pitching to a 2.88 earned run average across 68 2/3 innings. He punched out 30% of opponents against a solid 8.1% walk rate. Pagán avoided any injuries and pitched well against left- and right-handed batters alike. He got swinging strikes at a strong 14.6% clip while sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball.

Pagán has always had an elite strikeout and walk profile. He hasn’t had the year-by-year consistency of the sport’s best closers, though. The fly-ball approach still leaves him vulnerable to the home run ball. Pagán has only had one season in his nine-year career in which he has allowed fewer home runs than the average reliever. He has surrendered 85 home runs since entering the league in 2017. That’s 19 more than any other reliever over that stretch.

The longball is always going to be an issue, but Pagán sticking around as a high-leverage reliever despite the homers is a testament to his effectiveness in other areas. He’s a reliable control artist with above-average velocity. His splitter gives him an option to attack opposite-handed hitters, while he mixes in a cutter as his main offspeed pitch versus righty batters. Pagán has generally been durable outside of the aforementioned lat strain. He has topped 50 innings in every other full schedule of his career, including six years with 60+ frames.

Pagán’s strong walk year earns him a nice contract for his age 35-36 seasons. The guarantee narrowly beats our two-year, $16MM prediction. Pagán also gets the upside of the out clause, which allows him to get back to free agency if he has an equally strong ’26 season. Another two-year deal at age 36 would be rare but not unprecedented, so it’s not out of the question that he pitches well enough to consider that route.

Assuming Terry Francona slots Pagán back in the ninth inning, he’ll pitch behind a solid setup group that includes Tony Santillan, Connor Phillips and Graham Ashcraft. Cincinnati should add a left-hander at some point. The only southpaw who’d be in their bullpen at the moment is Sam Moll, who was up and down from Triple-A Louisville throughout the year.

Cincinnati has $32.275MM in guaranteed contracts to six players: Pagán, Hunter Greene, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jose Trevino, Ben Rortvedt, and Moll. They owe $15MM in dead money ($12MM salary and a $3MM option buyout payable after the World Series) to Jeimer Candelario. Cincinnati has a sizable arbitration class which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects to cost around $45MM. They’d owe another $8-10MM in minimum salary players, which puts their current commitments in the $100-105MM range. President of baseball operations Nick Krall said he expects payroll to be around the $116MM at which they opened the 2025 season.

That’d leave them with roughly $15-20MM to spend. They’re in the market for an impact bat and reportedly trying to bring Kyle Schwarber back to the Cincinnati area. That would surely cost more than $20MM annually. It’s possible ownership would make an exception for someone like Schwarber or Pete Alonso. The front office could also look to trade a player or two from the arbitration class to free up more spending capacity if they feel they’ve got a strong chance to sign an elite hitter.

Ken Rosenthal and C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic first reported that the Reds and Pagán had reached a two-year, $20MM deal with an out. Image courtesy of Imagn Images.

Emilio Pagan Receiving Interest From “At Least 10 Teams”

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Free agent reliever Emilio Pagan is a popular figure now that the market has opened, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that “at least 10 teams” have reached out to Pagan and his reps at the Ballengee Group.  A return to the Reds is also a possibility since Wittenmyer says the two sides have had some talks, though Cincinnati president of baseball operations Nick Krall didn’t give any hints on the subject.

“I don’t want to say yes or no. I don’t know,” Krall said about a potential new contract with Pagan.  “I loved Emilio.  He was great for our club.  I would absolutely be open to bringing him back.  It just depends on how everything fits together.”

Krall made similar comments praising Pagan back in October, and the reliever also expressed his own desire to return to the Reds.  Despite this mutual interest, Wittenmyer feels the amount of league-wide interest in Pagan could push his price tag beyond the Reds’ comfort zone.  Krall has stated that Cincinnati’s 2026 payroll will roughly match its 2025 payroll, which sat in the $116MM-$119MM range by season’s end.

With a limited budget and multiple roster needs to address, Wittenmyer believes the Reds will again “be waiting out the market for value buys” in free agency.  This could mean that Pagan might’ve signed elsewhere by the time the Reds are prepared to more fully dig into the market, or the club might seek out less-expensive bullpen reinforcements.

It was a little over two years ago that the Reds signed Pagan to a two-year, $16MM contract in his previous trip through free agency.  The deal allowed Pagan to opt out last winter, but he chose to remain under contract and take his $8MM salary for 2025 — an expected move given how the right-hander posted a 4.50 ERA over 38 innings during an injury-shortened 2024 campaign.

This past season, however, saw Pagan stay healthy and deliver a fine platform year.  Pagan posted a 2.88 ERA and a 30% strikeout rate over 68 2/3 frames, and he saved 32 of his 38 chances as the Reds’ closer.  His 8.1% walk rate was a little below average and Pagan received a lot of batted-ball luck, as his .200 BABIP in 2025 perhaps balanced out his unlucky .351 BABIP from 2024.  That said, his xwOBA dropped from .307 in 2024 to .267 this year, and Pagan’s signature four-seamer was still humming along at a 95.7mph velocity, nicely setting up his devastating splitter.

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Pagan 46th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and projected the righty to land another two-year, $16MM deal.  The contract reflects Pagan’s age (he turns 35 in May), his up-and-down tenure in Cincinnati, and how some teams may not want to pursue a reliever who has been so notoriously homer-prone throughout his career.

While Wittenmyer’s report indicates there’s obviously still plenty of teams that do have Pagan on their list of targets, it is fair to say that Pagan may not necessarily be the top choice for clubs in need of bullpen help.  Some teams may not view him as a closer at all, while others could see him as a backup option if they can’t land one of the more high-profile closers available.  Depending on how things play out or depending on how long it takes the likes of Edwin Diaz or Robert Suarez to find their next contract, there might be an opening for the Reds and Pagan if the reliever gets tired of waiting and decides to pivot back to a familiar and comfortable location.

Emilio Pagán Interested In Returning To Cincinnati

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After recording a career-high 32 saves in 2025, right-hander Emilio Pagán has expressed interest in rejoining the Reds. “I’d love to be back and run it back with them and take another run at it,” Pagán told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The pending free agent has spent the past two seasons in Cincinnati’s bullpen.

Pagán stepped in as manager Terry Francona’s preferred 9th inning option after Alexis Díaz went down with a hamstring injury in the spring. He entered the year with 33 career saves across eight MLB seasons. Pagán nearly doubled that mark as the Reds’ stopper, going 32-for-38 in save opportunities. He notched a 2.88 ERA across a career-high 70 appearances. Pagán was tied with Aroldis Chapman and Jhoan Duran for fifth in the league in saves.

A solid campaign with Minnesota in 2023 earned Pagán a two-year, $16M deal with Cincinnati ahead of the 2024 season. Injuries limited him to 38 innings in his first year with the team. He spent time on the IL with triceps tightness and a lat strain. The latter issue cost him more than two months. Pagán struggled when healthy, pitching to a 4.50 ERA with a bloated 1.34 WHIP. He was set to open the 2025 season on the periphery of Cincinnati’s late-inning mix, but Díaz’s injury opened the door for another reliever to step forward. Despite having former closers Taylor Rogers and Scott Barlow on the roster, it was Pagán and Tony Santillan who emerged as the top candidates for the role. Both pitchers earned a save within the team’s first 10 games, but Santillan wouldn’t get his second save until early June. By then, Pagán had run away with the job.

The closer role wasn’t completely foreign to Pagán, but it had been a while since he had spent the majority of a season in the position. He served as Tampa Bay’s primary closer in 2019 after Diego Castillo and Jose Alvarado faltered. Pagán earned 20 saves that year. He was dealt to San Diego in the offseason, and then to Minnesota a couple of years later. Pagán opened the 2022 season as the Twins’ closer, but lost the job to Duran after an extended stretch of poor performance.

Pagán will be one of many intriguing names on the closer market this offseason. Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley, and Raisel Iglesias are free agents. Edwin Díaz and Robert Suarez could opt out of their current deals and hit the open market. Kenley Jansen, Luke Weaver, Kirby Yates, Ryan Pressly, and Kyle Finnegan have extensive late-inning experience. Pagán’s best choice might be to stick with the club where he just posted a career season. It sounds like the interest is mutual, too. Team president Nick Krall told Wittenmyer that Pagán would be “tremendous to have back.” Krall added that the veteran “fits in the culture of our bullpen.”

The Reds should certainly have the financial flexibility to add in free agency. FanGraphs’ RosterResource tool has them below $100MM for next year’s payroll, though the team does have an ample group of arbitration-eligible players. The club had a payroll of around $120MM this past season. Cincinnati is stuck paying $13MM to Jeimer Candelario next year, but he’s currently the only player on the books for more than seven figures in 2026, assuming they decline the $12MM mutual option on Austin Hays. If the Reds don’t make any additions to the bullpen, they’re likely looking at patching together the closer gig with Santillan and converted starter Graham Ashcraft.

Reds Not Immediately Reinstalling Alexis Diaz As Closer

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Alexis Díaz is back in the Cincinnati bullpen, as the Reds reinstated him from the 15-day injured list this afternoon. (They also welcomed back Matt McLain and Austin Hays from the IL.) However, Díaz will not immediately return to his traditional closer role.

Manager Terry Francona told reporters (including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) that Díaz won’t step right back into the ninth inning. The Reds relied upon Emilio Pagán in save situations while Díaz was shelved by a hamstring strain. Pagán has four of the team’s five saves, while Tony Santillan picked up the other. Santillan has been Francona’s top setup man. Scott Barlow and Ian Gibaut have gotten a handful of leverage appearances as well.

Pagán has had a solid first three weeks. He has worked 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball, striking out five against one walk. He’s 4-4 in save chances and picked up a hold on Opening Day. Pagán is in the second season of a two-year, $16MM free agent deal. The first season didn’t work out as the Reds had hoped. The righty allowed a 4.50 earned run average over 38 innings. His strikeout and walk numbers were very good, but Pagán’s longstanding issue keeping the ball in the park continued. He also lost a few weeks to triceps tightness and spent two months on the IL with a lat strain.

Díaz has been Cincinnati’s closer for most of his three-year MLB career. He earned his first save chances late in his rookie year, a deserved nod after his 1.84 ERA with 83 punchouts across 63 2/3 innings. Díaz earned an All-Star appearance and saved 37 games during his second season. He walked a tightrope for most of last year, however.

While Díaz successfully locked down 28 of 32 save chances, he did so with a career-worst 3.99 ERA. His strikeout rate — which had sat north of 30% in each of his first two seasons — plummeted to a pedestrian 22.7% mark. Díaz has never had good command, making the drop in whiffs all the more concerning.

His stuff has also backed up. The righty averaged 93.9 MPH on his fastball last season. That’s down nearly two ticks from his 95.7 MPH mark as a rookie and a 94.5 MPH average in 2023. Between those somewhat alarming numbers and the season-opening IL stint, it’s sensible for the Reds to stick with Pagán and Santillan as their top late-game arms while having Díaz work in somewhat lower-leverage spots in the early going.

Emilio Pagan Exercises Player Option With Reds

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The Reds announced that right-hander Emilio Pagan has exercised his $8MM player option for the 2025 season.  Pagan inked a two-year, $16MM contract with Cincinnati last winter that included an opt-out clause after the first season, and the reliever has chosen to forego a $250K buyout and a return trip to free agency.

There wasn’t much suspense in Pagan’s decision, as he missed just short of three months of the 2024 season due to a lat strain.  The injury limited to Pagan to 38 innings in as many appearances, marking the lowest career total in either category for Pagan during any of his seven regulation-length MLB seasons (Pagan tossed 22 innings in 22 games during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign).

Pagan’s first season in Cincinnati saw him post a 4.50 ERA, but a much more impressive 3.19 SIERA.  An inflated .351 BABIP undermined some solidly above-average strikeout (28.1%) and walk (7%) rates, though Pagan did allow a lot of hard contact.  Even with this favorable set of advanced metrics, it makes a lot of sense that the 33-year-old Pagan would prefer to lock in $7.75MM of extra guaranteed salary rather than test the market on the heels of what he surely views as a middling platform year.

Pagan’s bottom-line results haven’t always been consistent, though he isn’t far removed from a strong 2023 campaign (with the Twins) that helped him land that $16MM deal in the first place.  It isn’t a coincidence that Pagan’s 2023 season included by far the lowest home run rate (5.3%) of his career, as the righty has long had difficulty in keeping the ball in the park.  Those issues returned with a 12.5% homer rate in 2024, just slightly bettering his 12.8% career mark.

With Pagan returning and Brent Suter signed to a new contract, the Reds’ bullpen will have some familiar faces back, even if Buck Farmer and swingmen Nick Martinez and Jakob Junis are now all heading for free agency.  Getting Alexis Diaz back on track is surely the Reds’ top bullpen concern heading into 2025, though having Pagan stay healthy and deliver his usual type of innings-eating season will surely also help.

Reds Activate Emilio Pagán From 60-Day IL

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The Reds have activated Emilio Pagán from the 60-day injured list, the team announced today. To free up a spot on the active roster, Yosver Zulueta was optioned to Triple-A Louisville. The team had two open spaces on the 40-man roster, so no additional corresponding move was necessary.

Pagán, 33, signed a two-year, $16MM contract with the Reds this past offseason. Before reaching free agency, he spent the first seven seasons of his career pitching for the Mariners, Athletics, Rays, Padres, and Twins. Despite being traded four times in less than five years, Pagán put up solid numbers, pitching to a 3.71 ERA and 3.39 SIERA across 369 appearances. What’s more, although he compiled 22 wins, 32 saves, and 60 holds – and a 1.80 ERA in 11 postseason appearances – his most impressive accomplishment in that time was, perhaps, his durability. From 2017-23, he only took one trip to the injured list: a brief stint on the 10-day IL with right biceps inflammation in 2020. He pitched at least 50 innings in every full season. Only five players threw more innings in relief over those seven years: Raisel Iglesias, Héctor Neris, Miguel Castro, Adam Ottavino, and Kenley Jansen.

Unfortunately, the injury bug finally caught up to Pagán in his first season with Cincinnati. The veteran righty landed on the IL with a right lat strain in mid-June, and he was transferred to the 60-day IL later that month.

Results-wise, Pagán has had his ups and downs throughout his career. He put up a strong performance in his walk year last season, tossing 69 1/3 innings for Minnesota with a 2.99 ERA. Yet, there were warning signs that his success wasn’t entirely sustainable. His 23.8% strikeout rate was a career-low, his 5.3% HR/FB was well below his career average, and his 4.01 SIERA was more than a full run higher than his ERA. Nonetheless, he managed to secure a $16MM guarantee from the Reds. He is making an $8MM salary this season, and he has an $8MM player option for 2025.

Pagán looked solid but unspectacular over his first 22 appearances with Cincinnati. His strikeout rate climbed back up to 29.9%, but his home run rate jumped up too; he gave up four long balls in just 22 games. His 3.06 SIERA is a marked improvement from last season, but his 4.43 ERA is not. Most concerningly, his velocity is down by at least one and a half miles per hour on all three of his pitches (a four-seam fastball, a cutter, and a splitter). He has also allowed hard-hit balls (95+ mph EV) at the highest rate of his career. Then again, his SIERA, xERA, and xFIP are all significantly better than the league average, and pitch modeling systems like Stuff+ and PitchingBot agree that Pagán remains an above-average arm. Ultimately, what this tells us is that 20 1/3 innings is a pretty small sample size with which to evaluate a pitcher. With seven weeks remaining in the season, it will be interesting to see if Pagán performs well enough that he might choose to reject his player option this offseason and return to free agency.

Cincinnati has had one of the better bullpens in baseball all season, and Nick Krall bolstered that group with Jakob Junis at the trade deadline. Even so, the Reds will need all the help they can get if they want to stay alive in the NL Wild Card race; they’re currently five games back of the third Wild Card spot, with six teams standing in their way.

The Reds claimed Zulueta off of waivers from the Blue Jays on Opening Day, and he made his MLB debut with Cincinnati in late June. The 26-year-old has already been recalled and optioned several times this season, pitching to a 3.09 ERA and 3.63 SIERA over eight low-leverage appearances. He will return to the Louisville Bats, with whom he has pitched 40 1/3 innings this year with a 2.23 ERA and 3.24 FIP.

Reds Activate Noelvi Marté

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The Reds announced today that infielder Noelvi Marté has been activated from the suspended list, having now served his 80-game PED suspension. In corresponding moves, they optioned infielder Liván Soto and transferred right-hander Emilio Pagán to the 60-day injured list.

Marté, 22, had an excellent debut for the Reds last year. Long considered one of the top prospects in the league, he was called up in August of last year and hit .316/.366/.456 in his first 35 games at the major league level. That set him up to be a key part of the 2024 club but he was hit with an 80-game suspension in early March after testing positive for Boldenone.

That has been just one of several notable absences for the Reds this year. Matt McLain, TJ Friedl and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have all missed significant time due to injury, with several pitchers having spent time on the IL as well. Those health problems and Marté’s suspension have left the club fairly hamstrung so far on the season.

Those issues have contributed to a fairly lackluster performance from the club, as the Reds are currently 37-43. That leaves them only 4.5 games out of a playoff spot in the fairly weak National League Wild Card race, but many expected better results this year after the club seemed to be overflowing with young talent towards the end of last year.

The return of Marté could perhaps give them a boost, though for what it’s worth, he hasn’t been in good form after his layoff. He began a rehab assignment a couple of weeks ago and hit .151/.151/.170 in 15 Triple-A games. That’s a small sample size and perhaps some rust is expected after missing time, but the Reds will obviously hope for better than that going forward.

The Reds still have McLain, Friedl and Encarnacion-Strand on the injured list while Jake Fraley and Jeimer Candelario are each dealing with minor ailments. Despite Marté’s poor form during his rehab, he might get some runway to get in a good place with so many other players ailing. He was primarily playing third base during his rehab, which has been Candelario’s home for much of this season. Santiago Espinal has been covering that spot lately but is hitting just .203/.253/.297 on the year. Even when Candelario is healthy again, he is capable of moving over to first base, while regular first baseman Spencer Steer could perhaps move into the corner outfield mix.

As for Pagán, he landed on the 15-day injured list June 9 due to a right lat strain. This transfer suggests the Reds don’t expect him back until early August in a best-case scenario. He signed a two-year, $16MM deal in the offseason, with the chance to opt out after one year. He has a mediocre 4.43 earned run average on the year and seemingly won’t have a ton of time to improve that number after this IL stint. The Reds could look to improve their bullpen prior to the trade deadline, but their aggressiveness in that department will depend on how the club plays over the next month.

2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition

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We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.

That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.

  • Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee

Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.

The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.

It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.

  • Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee

Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.

Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.

  • Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end

As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.

His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.

  • Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results

Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.

He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.

Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.

  • Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end

In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.

A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.

Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.

Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.

  • Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee

The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.

Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.

  • Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee

Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.

The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.

It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.

Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.

If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.

Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.

On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.

Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.

The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.

The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.

Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.

  • Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee

The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.

  • Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee

Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.

The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.

The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.

The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.

Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.

The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.

He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.

  • Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched

Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.

At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.

Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.

He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.

Reds Outright Bubba Thompson

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TODAY: Thompson has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Double-A Chattanooga, the Reds announced.

MAY 23: The Reds announced Thursday that they’ve designated outfielder Bubba Thompson for assignment in order to create 40-man roster space for righty Brett Kennedy, whose contract has been selected from Triple-A Louisville. Kennedy will take the 26-man roster spot of reliever Emilio Pagan, who’s being placed on the 15-day injured list due to tightness in his right triceps.

Thompson appeared in 17 games for the Reds but received only 18 plate appearances. He’s among the fastest players in MLB — if not the fastest — but has long had struggles at the plate, thus relegating him to a defensive replacement and pinch-running role. He went 2-for-18 with a double and five steals in his small handful of plate appearances but also punched out a glaring 11 times (61.1%).

A first-round pick by the Rangers in 2017, Thompson was a multi-sport star and legitimate football prospect as well prior to his selection and the signing of a $2.1MM bonus out of the draft. He’s now seen time in parts of three MLB seasons but is just a .232/.273/.295 hitter (58 wRC+) with a huge 32% strikeout rate and just a 4.2% walk rate. Thompson’s speed is off the charts, and he showed a bit of pop with 16 minor league big flies in 2021 and another 14 homers in 2022.

However, Thompson has still struggled to refine his approach at the plate even in the upper minors. He’d been playing with Cincinnati’s Double-A affiliate at the time of his DFA and, in 37 trips to the plate, carried a .200/.243/.314 slash. Thompson does have a .284/.347/.440 output in 145 Triple-A games, but that comes out to around league-average when adjusting for the electric run-scoring environment in the Pacific Coast League.

This is Thompson’s fifth DFA since last August. He’s yet to make it through waivers. The Royals claimed him off waivers from Texas but subsequently lost him to the Reds in October. When Cincinnati designated Thompson for assignment in late December, the Yankees put in a claim — only to DFA him again just weeks later. The Twins claimed Thompson but, like the Yankees, designated him for assignment after only a couple weeks, at which point the Reds claimed him a second time. He’s been with Cincinnati since that point but will now be traded or placed on waivers yet again within the next five days.

Kennedy, 29, has pitched in parts of two big league seasons: 2018 with the Padres and 2023 with the Reds. He’ll now get a second stint in Cincinnati and hope for better results than he turned in last year, when he was tagged for 13 runs in 18 innings. Kennedy has spent the 2024 season in the Louisville rotation but been roughed up for a 6.86 ERA in 40 2/3 frames (eight starts). His 18.9% strikeout is below-average by around five percentage points, but his excellent 4.7% walk rate is nearly half the league-average rate.

Kennedy will add some length to the bullpen in place of Pagan, who inked a surprising two-year, $16MM deal with the Reds this offseason — one that allows him the opportunity to opt out at season’s end. It was a surprise fit, given Cincinnati’s homer-happy stadium and Pagan’s longstanding penchant for big home run totals but also big strikeout rates. True to form, Pagan has already served up four taters in 19 1/3 innings of work (1.86 HR/9) but also punched out a substantial 30.5% of his opponents. He’s sitting on a 4.19 ERA to begin his Reds tenure, but his season will now be paused for at least the next couple weeks as he lets that ailing triceps mend.

Injury Notes: Garcia, Bradford, Pagan, Chandler

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Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien collided in pursuit of a fly ball in shallow right field in Saturday’s game, leaving Garcia with a sore forearm that kept him out of Sunday’s game.  The issue was serious enough that Garcia underwent an MRI, but manager Bruce Bochy told MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry (X link) and other reporters that the outfielder received “pretty good” results from the tests.  Since the Rangers don’t play on Monday, the team is hopeful that another day of rest will have Garcia ready for the start of their series Tuesday against the Phillies.

Garcia has a solid 117 wRC+ over 192 plate appearances this season, though his .251/.297/.491 slash line is obviously power-heavy.  While Garcia has 11 homers and is making lots of hard contact, his strikeout and walk rates are both far below the league average, and his 5.7% walk rate is in particular a sharp drop from his 10.3% number in 2023.  Despite these concerns, Garcia has still been one of the better hitters in a Texas lineup that has struggled to follow up on its huge numbers from its championship season.

More injury updates from around baseball…

  • Sticking with the Rangers, Cody Bradford told Landry and other reporters that the stress fracture in his rib isn’t improving, even if the injury is no longer causing him pain.  Bradford has been shut down from throwing for the time being, and it isn’t yet known how long this shutdown might extend his recovery timeline.  Bradford hasn’t pitched since April 10 due to a lower back strain that led to his initial placement on the 10-day injured list, but the rib fracture was discovered near the end of April, and it was expected that Bradford would likely miss the rest of May.  The left-hander had a sterling 1.40 ERA in his first 19 1/3 innings of the season, but his injuries have made him one of an incredible six starting pitchers on the Rangers’ IL.
  • Emilio Pagan had to be removed from the Reds’ 3-2 loss to the Dodgers today after the reliever felt some pain in his triceps area.  “It felt like my triceps overstretched right in the middle,” Pagan said told MLB.com and other media, though “it wasn’t sharp pain. It wasn’t a grab.”  Pagan will be examined by team doctors during the Monday off-day, but an initial round of tests created some hope that the issue isn’t serious.  Pagan’s 54.2% hard-hit ball rate is among the highest in baseball and he is having his usual trouble keeping the ball in the park, but the right-hander has limited the damage to a 4.19 ERA over 19 1/3 innings thanks to an outstanding strikeout rate.
  • Pirates pitching prospect Bubba Chandler has been placed on the seven-day IL at Double-A due to forearm tightness, as assistant GM Steve Sanders relayed in an interview on 93.7 radio (hat tip to Justin Guerriero of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).  Chandler was a third-round pick for the Bucs in the 2021 draft, and he is ranked 57th by Baseball America and 66th by MLB Pipeline in their current lists of the sport’s top prospects.  The righty had 3.10 ERA over his first 20 1/3 innings of the Double-A season but was hit hard in his last two outings, perhaps in relation to the forearm issue.
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