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Twins Option Royce Lewis

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Royce Lewis homered and doubled in last night’s loss to the A’s, boosting his slash line through his first 11 big league games to .308/.325/.564 — but the Twins nevertheless optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul last night in order to pave the way for Carlos Correa’s activation from the 10-day injured list, manager Rocco Baldelli announced after the game (link via Dan Hayes of The Athletic). Baldelli naturally acknowledged that Lewis had made the decision “difficult” with his play and suggested that the Twins will use this run in Triple-A to “move [Lewis] around the field” and “get him a little bit of exposure at some different spots.”

Lewis’ glovework at shortstop has long been a question among scouts, with some viewing a move to the outfield as an eventual necessity. The 22-year-old made a pair of errors in his 99 innings at shortstop but also made several highlight-reel plays in his tiny sample of work. The Twins very likely still view him as a shortstop in the long run, but Correa is arguably the game’s best defender at the position, so Lewis will use a potentially brief run through Triple-A to get his feet wet at other positions while also further honing his skills at short.

Lewis does have some limited experience at other positions but has played exclusively at shortstop in 2022 — his first season of game action since way back in 2019. The 2020 season was lost for all minor leaguers, and Lewis missed the 2021 campaign due to a torn ACL. He logged a dozen games at third base, five in center field and four at second base during the 2019 Arizona Fall League, but he’s never played a position other than shortstop outside that AFL run. That Lewis was able to hit the ground running both in Triple-A and in the Majors after what amounts to more than two years away from game activity is a testament to the upside and talent that prompted Minnesota to select him with the No. 1 overall pick back in 2017.

It’s still undoubtedly a deflating move for Lewis and for Twins fans, even if the move is short-term in nature. Correa, however, will return to the lineup and give the club a premier defensive player and overall MVP-caliber talent whose bat had begun to heat up just prior to the hit-by-pitch that ultimately landed him on the 10-day IL. The 27-year-old is hitting .255/.320/.372 overall but raked at a .412/.444/.588 pace in the nine games preceding his injury.

As for where Lewis will slot in when he does return, the Twins will have multiple options. First base has been the biggest hole in their lineup, with both Miguel Sano and prospect Jose Miranda floundering at the plate. Utilityman Luis Arraez has begun to slot in at first base with more regularity, however, and the Twins surely still have hope that outfielder/first baseman Alex Kirilloff — like Lewis, a longtime top prospect both in the system and in the league as a whole — will right the ship in Triple-A and be able to play a larger role there.

Across the diamond, third base could be a more viable fit. Gio Urshela has made some strong defensive plays but ranks about average with the glove according to most public metrics. He’s also hitting just .226/.280/.330 in 118 trips to the plate — production (or lack thereof) that would eventually jeopardize his place in the lineup even if he were producing outstanding numbers on the defensive side of the coin. Minnesota left fielders, meanwhile, are hitting .236/.294/.341 on the season, due in large part to Kirilloff’s struggles prior to his wrist injury and to Nick Gordon’s tepid .250/.292/.309 output (most of which has come while playing left field).

Being uncertain where they’ll ultimately slot Lewis back into the mix is the quintessential “good problem to have” for a team. It’ll be worth keeping a keen eye on just where Lewis is lining up across the river in St. Paul, as that could foreshadow some other decisions pertaining to the big league roster. Lewis will technically need to remain with the Saints for at least 10 days now that he’s been optioned, although the Twins can easily get around that minimum by recalling Lewis as the corresponding move for an injury if they see fit.

Twins Place Carlos Correa, Chris Paddack On 10-Day IL; Select Mark Contreras, Jharel Cotton

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The Twins announced that shortstop Carlos Correa and right-hander Chris Paddack have been placed on the 10-day injured list today. Correa’s placement (due to a right middle finger contusion) is retroactive to May 6, while Paddack’s placement with right elbow inflammation is retroactive to May 9.  Minnesota has selected the contracts of outfielder Mark Contreras and righty Jharel Cotton to replace Correa and Paddack on the active roster.

As reported earlier today, Correa needed more time to recover from the deep bruise suffered in Thursday’s game, and the shortstop hasn’t played since.  While Correa may have avoided serious injury, things seem more ominous for Paddack, who has a history of elbow problems.  Paddack is still considering his next step, and another surgery hasn’t been ruled out.

Royce Lewis will take over for Correa at shortstop, and Sonny Gray’s return from the injured list over the weekend means the Twins still have a full five-man rotation (plus Dylan Bundy on the COVID-related IL).  Minnesota is still missing a lot of key personnel on the injured list, so to improve that depth, Contreras and Cotton are joining the roster.

Cotton already appeared in two games with the Twins earlier this season, tossing two innings before being outrighted off the 40-man roster.  The former top-100 prospect is trying to revive his career after a number of injuries, and after posting a 3.52 ERA over 30 2/3 innings with the Rangers last season, Cotton was acquired by the Twins on a waiver claim back in November.

Contreras was a ninth-round pick for the Twins in the 2017 draft, and the UC Riverside product is now set to make his Major League debut.  The 27-year-old didn’t hit much in his first three pro seasons, but after not playing in 2020 due to the canceled minor league campaign, Contreras returned to action with a flourish, hitting well at Double-A and earning a promotion to Triple-A Rochester.  Over 497 plate appearances at Rochester over the last two seasons, Contreras has hit .246/.338/.492 with 23 homers, and 17 steals in 23 chances.

Both Contreras and Gilberto Celestino can play all three outfield positions, and Contreras is a left-handed hitting complement to Celestino’s righty bat.  Minnesota now has some flexibility with their outfield bench depth behind starters Max Kepler, Nick Gordon, and Byron Buxton, though with Buxton still day-to-day with a minor hip strain, the Twins can’t afford to lose yet another regular (especially a star like Buxton) when they’re already stretched thin.

Twins Expected To Place Carlos Correa On 10-Day IL

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With Carlos Correa still hampered by a bruised finger, the Twins are likely to put Correa on the 10-day injured list prior to today’s game against the Astros, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes writes.  Correa has missed Minnesota’s last three games, and told Hayes and other reporters on Sunday that returning for today’s game wasn’t a “realistic” scenario.

Since Minnesota didn’t play yesterday, the hope was that Correa would make enough improvement on the off-day to line up a return for later in the week, but it seems like the Twins have just decided to be cautious and send the shortstop to the IL.  All things considered, a 10-day IL stint may be the best-case scenario, as there was initial concern that Correa had suffered a fracture.

Former first overall pick Royce Lewis has been handling shortstop duties in Correa’s absence, and will now get to bank more playing time in his first taste of Major League action.  While Lewis is more than just a stopgap option, the Twins likely wouldn’t have called him up this soon had the team not been hit with such a swath of injuries.  Correa will be the 11th Twins player on the injured list, and Byron Buxton is also day-to-day with a minor hip strain.

Minnesota does have a 40-man roster opening, so the club could fill Correa’s roster spot by selecting the contract of a player in the organization on a minor league contract.  Daniel Robertson, Curtis Terry, Elliot Soto, and Jake Cave are some of the names at Triple-A with MLB experience who would need to be added to the 40-man.

Carlos Correa Diagnosed With Bruised Finger, May Avoid Injured List

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3:57pm: In excellent news for the Twins, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey revealed to reporters (including Dan Hayes of the Athletic) that the CT scan revealed no fracture in Correa’s hand. He has been diagnosed with a bruise and is day-to-day. Falvey suggested Correa might even avoid the injured list altogether (via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com), although he’s dealing with continued soreness and inflammation.

The team is still promoting former first overall pick Royce Lewis to make his major league debut, Falvey said (via Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press). Minnesota was planning to promote Lewis in anticipation of an IL stint for Correa. They’ll follow through on the call-up even as Correa remains on the active roster for now.

8:47am: Preliminary X-rays reveal what appears to be a non-displaced fracture in Carlos Correa’s right middle finger, the Twins announced following the team’s 5-3 loss to the Orioles on Thursday. The star shortstop, who the Twins signed to a shock 3-year, $105.3MM contract this offseason, will undergo a CT scan today to confirm the nature of the injury.

Correa appears to have sustained the injury in the seventh inning while attempting to check his swing against a Bryan Baker change-up. He had also been hit by a pitch in his previous plate appearance (a Spenser Watkins fastball glanced off his left wrist), but the pitch that appears to have caused the injury actually resulted in a ground-out after trickling into fair territory.

If the CT scan confirms the initial diagnosis, Correa shouldn’t require surgery, though it isn’t yet clear how much time he’ll miss. Utility-man Nick Gordon took over for Correa following the injury, but manager Rocco Baldelli (or, while Baldelli is away from the team after testing positive for COVID, bench coach Jayce Tingler) could also turn to Jorge Polanco, which would likely place Luis Arraez in an everyday role at second base. Third baseman Gio Urshela has also logged some time at short in his big-league career, though it’s unlikely he’d be considered more than a short-term option.

Should Correa miss any significant time, the Twins could also turn to top prospect (and top overall pick in the 2017 draft) Royce Lewis, who’s off to a blistering .310/.427/.560 start at Triple-A St. Paul across 103 plate appearances to open the season. The club may not wish to rush Lewis, though, particularly given that until April he hadn’t seen game action — or played above Double-A — since 2019 after tearing his ACL ahead of the 2021 season.

While the Twins will obviously hope to have Correa back as quickly as possible, he has gotten off to something of a slow start in his new uniform. Even after roaring out of the gate in May (1.036 OPS in a four-game sample), Correa’s 2022 .264/.323/.385 batting line falls well short of his career triple-slash of .276/.355/.478, particularly in the power department. Given the likelihood that he’ll opt out of the final two years of his deal at the end of the season (even after signaling that he’s open to a long-term deal in the Twin Cities), the first-place Twins will hope to see him return to the field — and revert to form — sooner than later.

Correa Open To Long-Term Deal With Twins

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The common consensus when Carlos Correa signed a surprising three-year, $105.3MM contract with the Twins was that he’d take his opt-out clause at the end of this season and re-enter the market. However, Correa recently spoke with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and revealed that he’s already expressed to Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, general manager Thad Levine and manager Rocco Baldelli that he would “love” to sign a longer-term deal.

“I told ‘em, ’Hey guys, I know I have the opt-outs in the contract. But I really like it here,'” Correa tells Rosenthal. “I love the people here. I love the way I’m treated here. … I would love to have a long-term relationship here if that’s what you guys would like.” Correa adds that his wife already feels “right at home” in Minnesota and that he’s been energized by his teammates, specifically lauding the scalding-hot Byron Buxton as well as the overall win-now temperament throughout the clubhouse.

On the one hand, it’s hardly a surprise to see Correa express a willingness to sign a lengthy contract. He hit the open market this past offseason seeking a contract of at least 10 years in length and only pivoted to the three-year, opt-out-laden deal with the Twins after he did not find a longer-term deal to his liking. Any player would surely “love” to sign a long-term deal of the magnitude Correa sought in free agency. (The Tigers reportedly offered Correa a 10-year deal worth $275MM with multiple opt-out opportunities, but he was said to be seeking a deal north of $330MM.)

On the other hand, it’s also common for players to decline to discuss contractual matters during the season. We regularly see players who are on the cusp of free agency set Opening Day deadlines for a new contract because they prefer not to negotiate during the season. As a newly signed free agent, Correa is in a different boat than, say, Aaron Judge, who did not agree to terms on a long-term deal with the Yankees before his own Opening Day deadline, but it’s nevertheless of at least some note that Correa is publicly expressing a desire to stay put. He’d hardly have been the first player to simply decline to discuss the matter when asked and instead say he’ll think about that after the season.

From the Twins’ side of things, Falvey declined to delve into specifics but said that even when signing Correa to his three-year deal, the organization’s hope was that the shortstop would find Minnesota to his liking and hope to stay long-term. “I certainly expect we’ll maintain open lines of communication with both Carlos and [agent Scott Boras],” Falvey added.

There’s no getting around the fact that Correa is out to a poor start. It’s only 59 plate appearances, but Correa is hitting .192/.288/.288 with a homer and a pair of doubles. Statcast feels he’s been unlucky based on his huge 92.4 mph average exit velocity and a sky-high 58.8% hard-hit rate, but that “bad luck” only applies when Correa actually puts the ball in play. He’s doing that less often than ever, with a 30.5% strikeout rate that’s nearly 10 percentage points higher than his career 20.7% mark. Statcast credits him for an “expected” .230 average and .394 slugging percentage, but he’ll need to curb the strikeouts if he’s to return to his prior levels of production.

For his part, Correa made clear that he’s not concerned. The former Rookie of the Year, All-Star and 2021 Platinum Glove winner said he’s struggled to find his swing in April in the past, and a look at his career splits does reflect, to an extent, that he’s been more productive in subsequent months. That said, Correa has a career 123 wRC+ in March/April that towers over his current 77. Baldelli noted that Correa received fewer than half the spring plate appearances he might’ve in a normal year — a reflection both of the truncated Spring Training schedule and Correa’s own late signing.

Assuming Correa eventually rounds into form at the plate and that the Twins indeed have a desire to keep him longer-term — Baldelli raved to Rosenthal about Correa’s presence in the clubhouse and leadership traits — the question becomes one of whether they can comfortably make such a commitment. Signing Correa would likely require an unprecedented commitment for the franchise, given that the largest contract ever issued by the Twins was Joe Mauer’s eight-year, $184MM pact. That contract came with a unique set of circumstances, as Mauer was a former No. 1 overall pick and St. Paul native who’d just been named American League MVP in 2009 — the final season at the Metrodome before the Twins moved into a new, largely publicly funded stadium, Target Field. The public relations impact of letting Mauer walk as a free agent after the 2010 season would’ve been overwhelming; that’s not the case with Correa, whom many fans expect to opt out and sign elsewhere next winter.

Still, you’d be hard-pressed to claim the Twins “can’t afford” to keep Correa, if the front office and Boras can agree on a structure. Minnesota’s payroll this season is a franchise-record $138MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, and the Twins only have $76MM in guarantees on next year’s books. Correa’s $35.1MM salary accounts for nearly half that sum. By 2024, the Twins have just $54.5MM on the books — again, with Correa representing a major portion of that figure. Beginning in 2025, the Twins only have a bit more than $18MM on the books.

Over the long-term, Buxton’s seven-year, $100MM contract is the only major commitment the Twins have. He’ll earn a $15MM base salary on that deal from 2023-28, though that figure can jump by as much as $10.5MM annually based on total plate appearances and MVP voting. Still, even in a year where Buxton were to max out that figure, he’d only do so by staying healthy and winning an MVP Award. The Twins would happily pay $25.5MM in that scenario, and even pairing that with a hefty annual salary for Correa, the combined $55-60MM would be a fraction of the team’s overall spending. It doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will be running $200MM payrolls anytime soon, but it’s also reasonable to project some modest increases over this year’s $138MM mark.

The Twins would need to fill out the roster beyond those two players, of course, but they’re bullish on a crop of young pitching headlined by Opening Day starter Joe Ryan, to say nothing of young arms like Bailey Ober, Josh Winder and Jhoan Duran, all of whom are already in the big leagues. Prospects Jordan Balazovic, Simeon Woods Richardson, Louie Varland, Cole Sands and others aren’t expected to be far behind, and slugging infielder Jose Miranda ought to make his MLB debut at some point in 2022 as well. Signing Correa would perhaps block top infield prospects Royce Lewis and Austin Martin, but both have experience playing multiple positions. Not all of those players will emerge as contributors, but it’s easier to stomach a long-term, near-market-value deal when expecting an influx of cost-controlled young talent to help fill out the roster.

It’s still difficult to imagine the Twins ponying up with this kind of commitment, if only for the simple reason that they’ve just never spent at this level in the past. There’s a strong likelihood Correa will be back on the market after the season. That said, it was also difficult to imagine the Twins handing out a $35.1MM annual salary to Correa in the first place, and that contract at least changed some expectations and made a larger deal seem slightly more plausible. It’d still register as a surprise, but it’s easier to take the “never say never” tack now that the Twins have already pulled off one Correa stunner.

Fans intrigued by the situation will want to check out Rosenthal’s column in full, as it’s rife with detailed quotes from each of Correa, Falvey, Baldelli and Boras regarding the possibility of Correa extending his stay in Minnesota. There’s no indication that talks will happen anytime soon, but the Twins were active on the in-season extension front last year when trying to hammer out Buxton’s long-term deal prior to the trade deadline. A larger deal for Correa could be even more complicated, but all parties seem open to the idea.

Twins Sign Carlos Correa

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March 22: The Twins announced that Correa has officially signed his contract. He’ll be introduced at a press conference tomorrow morning.

March 19: Correa’s deal includes a limited no-trade clause this season, which becomes a full no-trade clause in 2023 and 2024 if he chooses to opt in to those contract years, per Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY (via Twitter). Without knowing the full details of the limited no-trade clause, it’s still a relatively impactful development. If the Twins fall out of contention this season, they’ll have a sizable trade chip on their hands in Correa.

March 18: In a stunning move, the Twins have agreed to sign the market’s top free agent, shortstop Carlos Correa, reports Mark Berman of Houston’s FOX 26 (Twitter link). Rather than the massive long-term deal that Correa has been seeking, he’ll instead sign a three-year, $105.3MM contract with opt-out clauses after the contract’s first and second seasons. ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds that the contract pays an evenly distributed $35.1MM annually. Correa is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Carlos Correa | Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins are giving Correa the second-highest average annual value of any position player in MLB history, trailing only the $36MM AAV on Mike Trout’s decade-long, $360MM contract extension with the Angels and narrowly topping the $35MM AAV on Anthony Rendon’s seven-year deal with the Angels. The move also means the No. 1 and No. 2 picks from the 2012 draft, Correa and Byron Buxton, will now be teammates for at least the 2022 season.

Upon shedding the remainder of Josh Donaldson’s contract in a trade with the Yankees, Minnesota was immediately linked to free-agent shortstop Trevor Story. Instead, the more than $40MM saved in that Donaldson deal will be reallocated to Correa, whose $105.3MM guarantee trails only Joe Mauer for the largest in Twins franchise history. Correa rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros at season’s end, meaning the Twins, a revenue-sharing recipient, will forfeit their third-highest selection in this year’s draft in order to sign him. That’ll be their pick in Competitive Balance Round B, which should fall in the mid-60s. The Astros, meanwhile, will gain a compensatory selection at the end of Competitive Balance Round B, which typically falls in the early 70s.

The opt-outs in the deal provide Correa with the ultimate insurance net; if he remains healthy in 2022 and produces anywhere near his 2021 or 2019 levels, he’ll surely reenter the market in search of something along the lines of the 10-year deal he originally sought. If he suffers an injury of note or experiences an unexpected downturn at the plate, he’ll have another $35.1MM salary waiting for him in 2023 with the same opt-out opportunity in the 2023-24 offseason.

The 27-year-old Correa, a career .277/.356/.481 hitter who slashed .279/.366/.485 with a career-high 26 homers in 640 plate appearances this past season, will serve as a focal point in a Twins lineup that is also anchored by Buxton and second baseman Jorge Polanco. He’s been an average or better hitter every season of his big league career, with the exception of the shortened 2020 campaign, and has connected on 20 or more home runs in five of his six full-length seasons at the MLB level. Correa has walked at a 10.8% clip and struck out in 20.5% of his plate appearances since debuting as a 20-year-old rookie, including career-best marks of 11.7% and 18.1%, respectively, this past season.

As with any longtime Astro, Correa comes with a relatively tainted reputation stemming from Houston’s 2017 sign-stealing scandal, but George Springer proved last winter that the market will still pay premium rates for those players, provided they remained productive in subsequent years. Correa only serves as further evidence of that reality. And, just as Springer was embraced by Toronto fans, Correa surely will be well-received in Minnesota so long as he produces in a Twins uniform.

Like Buxton, Correa has had some durability issues, only twice reaching 500 plate appearances in his career. However, he played in 148 games this past season and in 58 of 60 games during the shortened 2020 season. Correa had a brief stay on the Covid-19 list over the summer in 2021, but he hasn’t been on the injured list since sustaining a broken rib in June 2019. The other notable injury he’s had in his career, a torn thumb ligament, came in 2017 and hasn’t had noticeably lingering effects.

Correa only further deepens a Minnesota lineup that is deep in talent but also lacking in consistency. Each of Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Gary Sanchez have 30-homer seasons in their past but have ebbed and flowed through roller-coaster performances at the plate in recent years. Third baseman Gio Urshela, acquired alongside Sanchez in the Donaldson deal, will also look for a rebound to his 2019-20 levels (.310/.358/.523) after playing through health troubles in 2021.

Meanwhile, former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach have considerable offensive ceilings but played through injuries in their first full looks in 2021. Kirilloff, in particular, played through a torn wrist tendon before undergoing season-ending surgery. Top prospect Jose Miranda, who posted video-game numbers between Double-A and Triple-A this past season (.344/.401/.572), is expected to debut in 2022 and could see time at third base and/or designated hitter.

All of that is to say, the makings of a formidable lineup are present in Minnesota, though they’ll need a few things to break right. From the defensive side of things, Correa gives the Twins a pair of Platinum Glove winners, joining Buxton in that regard. With quality defenders like Kepler, Urshela and young catcher Ryan Jeffers also occupying key spots on the diamond, the Twins should have a strong defensive team overall. The Twins already ranked 12th in the Majors both in Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average in 2021, and Correa should boost both marks.

The larger questions center around the team’s patchwork starting rotation, however. After shipping Jose Berrios to the Blue Jays prior to the 2021 trade deadline and watching fellow righty Kenta Maeda fall to Tommy John surgery not long after, the Twins entered the winter in need of at least three veteran starters to pair with youngsters Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. They’ve yet to reach that goal. Acquiring Sonny Gray from the Reds gave them one notable upgrade, and rolling the dice on a Dylan Bundy rebound prior to the lockout was a sensible enough move in a vacuum. However, the Twins idled for the early portion of the offseason and are now faced with a rotation that is still lacking and a free-agent market that has been largely picked over.

The Twins have been tied to Athletics starters Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, but failing that, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine will need to seek some creative and under-the-radar options — particularly now that they’ve gone all-in on the 2022 season with this Correa deal. Minnesota has a number of pitching prospects on the precipice of the big leagues, but Correa is a clear win-now move that necessitates additional fortification in both the rotation and the bullpen.

It’s not clear just how much latitude Falvey and Levine will have to further boost a payroll that now, with Correa’s addition, is at a projected $128.5MM — within a few million dollars of franchise-record territory. The front office has repeatedly spoken of ownership support to boost payroll as needed in the past, however, and the shocking addition of Correa seems to support the notion that there’s more room to take the team’s spending levels to new heights, at least for the next few seasons.

Correa’s deal is fascinating on a number of levels, not the least of which being that it’s the first time in recent memory where the market’s consensus No. 1 free agent pivoted to a short-term deal with a potentially early reentry to the market. Entering the offseason, the common consensus was that the Yankees and Correa’s new division rivals, the Tigers, would be the primary bidders for his services. The Yankees not only opted to sit out the market for top-end shortstops entirely (despite a clear need), but in essence paved the way for the Twins to make this deal when they took on the remainder of Donaldson’s contract. The Tigers, meanwhile, offered Correa a reported 10-year, $275MM deal with three opt-out clauses — although presumably not so early in the contract as the offer on which Correa ultimately landed.

Risk-averse detractors will opine that Correa should’ve pounced on the larger guarantee, but with a big season Correa will again enter the market in search of a $300MM+ deal and having already banked $35.1MM in 2022. If he reaches even $240MM on a multi-year deal next winter, in advance of his age-28 season, or a $205MM+ deal after a 2023 opt-out, he’d come out ahead on the entire gambit.

Even in the event that Correa unexpectedly plays all three seasons in Minnesota on this deal, he’d return to the open market in advance of his age-30 season and needing to clear what could very well be an attainable $170MM to top that reported Detroit offer. It’s obviously possible that Correa struggles, gets injured or never reaches that same earning ceiling, but he’s known as a supremely confident player — a mentality that is underscored by taking a deal of this nature.

The incumbent Astros offered Correa five years at a total of $160MM prior to the lockout and, earlier in the week, were said to be prepping a new offer for their longtime star. It’s not yet clear what Houston ultimately put forth, but their initial offer didn’t include any opt-out provisions. If the new offer followed suit in that regard, it’s possible that Correa simply felt that in order to accept a shorter-term deal than the 10-year pact he initially sought, he’d need the opportunity to take another bite at the free-agent apple sooner than later.

Correa’s future trips to the market hinge on how the 2022 and perhaps the 2023 seasons play out, but regardless of when he returns to free agency, he’ll do so with a few advantages. Firstly, he won’t be one of five high-end shortstops on the market, as was the case this year. The combination of Correa, Story, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Javier Baez is regarded as perhaps the greatest collection of free-agent shortstops in history. The talented nature of that group always created the possibility for a game of musical chairs that left one without the contract he sought, but few would have expected Correa to take a short-term deal.

Were Correa to return to the market next winter, he’d do so alongside Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and perhaps Xander Bogaerts, who can opt out of his contract’s final three years and $60MM. However, Bogaerts’ defensive shortcomings have been increasingly placed under the microscope in recent years, and Swanson has never performed at Correa’s level either offensively or defensively. Turner and Correa certainly have the potential to be seen as 1-A and 1-B on next year’s market, but age is on Correa’s side; he’s more than a year younger than Turner. Furthermore, because Correa received a qualifying offer this winter, he’s now permanently ineligible to receive a second one. The qualifying offer system may yet be done away with entirely — that’s dependent on negotiations surrounding an international draft — but Correa is forever free from draft-pick compensation, regardless.

The other element of the contract to consider is the agency component of it. Correa turned heads by hiring Hollywood talent agency William Morris Endeavor to represent him in Sept. 2019. WME represented him up until midway through this offseason’s MLB lockout, but Correa hired the Boras Corporation to represent him on Jan. 18. There’s little sense speculating on the motivation behind the switch, but the change in representation meant that Correa’s former agents could have staked a claim to the commission from his eventual contract. Whenever Correa returns to the market, be it post-2022, post-2023 or post-2024, his new representation will command the entirety of the commission.

From a pure baseball perspective, the contract is a win both for Correa and for the Twins. Correa can lay claim to a nominal salary record — largest annual value for an infielder — and receive a massive yearly salary while retaining the ability to return to free agency in advance of either his age-28, age-29 or age-30 season.

The Twins, meanwhile, score the largest upgrade available to them on the market, catapulting them back into the conversation in the American League Central. They won’t be considered favorites without securing some additional pitching help, but Correa nevertheless provides radical improvement on both sides of the ball. The magnitude of the pitching upgrades the Twins have up their sleeve will determine their fate in 2022, but if their shocking deal with Correa is any indicator, they’re far from done improving this roster.

Free Agent Notes: Correa, Braves, Story, Tigers, Cueto

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The Braves were somewhat surprisingly connected to Carlos Correa prior to the lockout, and the two sides did re-engage to some extent before Correa signed with the Twins, though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that Atlanta didn’t make Correa an offer.  It was actually agent Scott Boras who reached out to the Braves as he was gauging the market for his client, and Rosenthal writes that Boras “floated” the same three-year, $105.3MM deal with two opt-outs that Correa eventually signed with Minnesota.

While nothing came of these negotiations, Rosenthal does wonder if Correa (assuming he opts out) might be a target for the Braves next winter, as incumbent shortstop Dansby Swanson will be a free agent.  Signing Correa to a long-term deal would surely require Atlanta GM Alex Anthopoulos to make his biggest expenditure yet, though the Braves will have quite a bit of money coming off the books in the form of Swanson, Kenley Jansen, and depending on club options, Charlie Morton and Will Smith.

More from around the league…

  • The Giants and Astros were the other finalists for Trevor Story’s services, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter link).  Expanding on San Francisco’s interest, NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic writes that the Giants “did recruit him quite a bit,” even if “a few of their people always felt [Story] was headed for Boston.”  Among other suitors, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes writes that the Twins discussed multiple contract scenarios with Story but the team’s preference seemed to be a pricey but shorter-term contract, like Minnesota’s eventual three-year, $105.3MM deal with Carlos Correa.
  • The Tigers were known to be looking at all of the “big six” free agent shortstops, and signed Javier Baez to a six-year, $140MM deal prior to the lockout.  There wasn’t much known about the Tigers’ negotiations with Story, though Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press reports that “Story wasn’t interested in the Tigers’ proposed contract structure.”  This is an interesting wrinkle considering that Story also got six years and $140MM from the Red Sox, though Baez’s salary is a bit backloaded and he can opt out of the deal following the 2023 season.  Story’s deal also has an opt-out decision but not until after the 2025 season, plus the Sox can overwrite Story’s opt-out by exercising a club option for a seventh year.
  • In other Tigers news, GM Al Avila told Petzold and other reporters that the club is “done” their major offseason shopping after signing Michael Pineda for the back of the rotation.  Detroit had one of the more aggressive and active winters of any club, and Avila and his front office also explored many other options besides the players they did acquire via trades and free agent deals.  In regards to the Pineda contract, for instance, the Tigers looked at several other available veterans who ended up signing elsewhere, and Petzold adds that Detroit also considered Johnny Cueto.  Last month, MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored Cueto’s free agent case, arguing that the 36-year-old was still a pretty decent option for teams looking for relatively inexpensive rotation depth.

AL Notes: Correa, Tucker, Meadows, Winker, Upton

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Before Carlos Correa signed with the Twins, there was some increased buzz that Correa could be staying with the Astros, as Houston was reportedly working on a new contract offer and owner Jim Crane was getting involved in talks.  However, in the aftermath of Correa’s departure, The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome hears from two sources that “the Astros were not close to reuniting with their shortstop.”

In fact, the Astros didn’t even make a new offer.  According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Astros “did not budge from” the five-year, $160MM deal the club offered Correa just prior to the opening of the free agent market in November.  The exact level of these latest talks between Correa and the Astros aren’t known, but Rome wonders why the team didn’t explore a contract similar to the three-year, $105.3MM pact (with two player opt-outs) that Correa landed from Minnesota, or if such a deal simply wasn’t of interest to the Astros.

More from around the American League…

  • In other Astros news, Kyle Tucker told Chandler Rome (Twitter link) that the team had yet to start any talks about a contract extension.  There isn’t necessarily any rush for the Astros, as Tucker is still a pre-arbitration player and isn’t eligible for free agency until the 2025-26 offseason.  Still, Tucker has been excellent over his two full seasons as an everyday player, and extending him now could help Houston get some cost-certainty over what projects to be some pricey arbitration-eligible seasons for the outfielder.
  • The Rays and Phillies have discussed an Austin Meadows trade, according to Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link).  Timing may be a factor in this report, since Lauber tweeted the news just hours before the Phillies signed Nick Castellanos, and thus Meadows may no longer be on the team’s radar.  Indeed, with Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber now acquired for corner outfield and DH duty, adding a player of a similar profile like Meadows wouldn’t seem all that feasible for Philadelphia, even if Meadows is a better defender (if not a standout) than either of the two free agent sluggers.
  • The Guardians “were in on” trying to acquire Jesse Winker from the Reds before Cincinnati dealt the outfielder to the Mariners earlier this week, Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.  Seattle’s ability to absorb Eugenio Suarez’s contract gave the M’s the edge, as the Guards’ payroll limitations simply wouldn’t make it feasible for them to eat a big contract (plus, Cleveland already has Jose Ramirez at third base).  Winker, however, would’ve been a big help for the Guardians’ needs in the outfield, and Cleveland has been rather quiet overall since the end of the lockout, whereas their AL Central rivals have all made significant moves.
  • Justin Upton briefly started some prep work as a first baseman last season before a lumbar strain ended his season in September, but the veteran outfielder has again donned a first baseman’s glove in Angels camp this spring, The Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher writes.  Upton has never played at first base during his entire pro career, though the lower-impact position would theoretically help the 34-year-old to stay healthy, and his right-handed bat would provide a nice complement to left-handed hitting starting first baseman Jared Walsh.  After three straight injury-plagued and subpar seasons, Upton is entering the final year of his five-year, $106MM deal with the Angels.

Latest On Carlos Correa’s Market

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Carlos Correa remains on the free agent market, as possible suitors like the Yankees, Phillies, Tigers and Rangers have all seemingly decided not to make a serious run at him this offseason. With less than three weeks to go before Opening Day, a resolution on the Correa front seems likely to arrive sooner than later.

The incumbent Astros haven’t abandoned their pursuit. Houston’s initial five-year, $160MM offer to Correa early in the offseason never seemed especially tempting for the star shortstop. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic tweeted earlier this week the Astros were preparing a new offer, noting that players in Houston camp were palpably excited about the possibility the team could bring him back.

Asked about the chances of re-upping Correa this morning, Astros GM James Click demurred (video link from Jason Bristol of KHOU). “It’s not something we’re going to comment on one way or the other,” he said before noting that the recent signing of Niko Goodrum strengthened the club’s overall infield depth. Houston also has veteran Aledmys Díaz and top prospect Jeremy Peña as possible options if Correa heads elsewhere. Skipper Dusty Baker called Peña “the frontrunner” among the in-house players at the position this week (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

Former Astros scouting director Mike Elias — an instrumental factor in Houston’s decision to select Correa first overall in the 2012 draft — is now running baseball operations with the Orioles. That has led to some speculation the rebuilding O’s could get into the mix for the two-time All-Star. There hadn’t previously been any firm indication Baltimore was considering such a move, but Rosenthal wrote last night the O’s could contemplate a run at Correa “if his price dropped to a level the club deemed appropriate.”

That’d require a change in tone from Elias’ comments earlier this week, when he said he didn’t anticipate the Orioles signing any players to multi-year contracts. Making an exception for Correa, though, makes some sense. Beyond Elias’ personal familiarity with the shortstop, Correa’s young enough to anchor whatever core with which the O’s emerge from their rebuild. He’s only 27 years old, and while Correa wouldn’t single-handedly make Baltimore a contender this year, he’d presumably remain an excellent player during 2023-24 campaigns when the O’s expect to be competitive.

Correa to Baltimore remains a long shot, and the caveat that it may require his asking price falling is a notable one. Still, Raul Ramos of Con Las Bases Llenas linked the O’s with Correa before Rosenthal’s report, writing the club may even had put an offer on the table. There’ll certainly be more clarity on Correa’s eventual destination fairly soon, particularly with the other star free agent option at the position, Trevor Story, reportedly nearing a decision.

Red Sox Notes: Free Agency, Bogaerts, Payroll

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The Red Sox have signed five free agent pitchers — Michael Wacha, James Paxton, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm and Jake Diekman — so far this winter. Their only meaningful change on the position player front, though, was arguably a downgrade in 2022. An hour before the lockout, Boston traded Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers in a deal that brought Jackie Bradley Jr. back to Fenway Park.

While the Sox have yet to pull off a meaningful upgrade to their position player mix, they’ve been at least loosely tied to a few of free agency’s top names. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network suggested this morning they could be in the mix for Freddie Freeman. They’re reportedly among the teams in the running for star NPB outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Before the lockout, reports tied them to each of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story.

There are myriad possibilities the Boston front office could pursue, a fact chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom acknowledged when speaking with reporters yesterday (via Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic). “We talked about this before the lockout … that we do still want to add position players to the group,” Bloom said. “The (Renfroe) trade we made on December 1 kind of flipped our lineup balance a little bit to where we have an opening for a right-handed bat. That said, in this period, especially with so much going on and so many conversations, we want to be nimble enough to take advantage of all opportunities.”

Bloom declined to specify an area of positional target, pointing to the flexibility Enrique Hernández affords the club with his ability to capably man both center field and second base. That’s been reinforced by the wide array of players they’ve reportedly inquired about, but their ties to the top two free agent shortstops are made more difficult by the presence of their All-Star in-house option there.

Speaking with reporters (including Christopher Smith of MassLive) this afternoon, Xander Bogaerts didn’t sound enamored with the possibility of changing positions to accommodate an external addition. “I’m a shortstop, man. That’s where I’ve played my whole career and obviously a position I take a lot of pride in,” the 29-year-old said. “I love being there.” Bogaerts said he and the team haven’t broached the possibility of a position change.

If Bogaerts remains steadfastly against moving off shortstop, that’d complicate any efforts by the Red Sox to make a legitimate push for Correa or Story. Correa is one of the game’s preeminent defenders at the position, coming off a Gold Glove winning campaign. Story is reportedly intent on signing with a team that’ll keep him at shortstop. It seems unlikely at this point that either will sign with a team that’s unwilling to make space for them at the infield’s most demanding position.

Unlike Correa or Story, Bogaerts doesn’t have the freedom to choose a team for 2022. Yet he will have the option of testing the open market next offseason, as he can opt out of the final three years and $60MM on his deal at the end of this season. Given how well he’s played in recent seasons, he’s certainly on a path towards triggering the opt-out, leaving Bloom and his staff to determine whether they want earmark some future funds away for a potential extension. (Star third baseman Rafael Devers is down to his final two years of arbitration control as well).

The Red Sox should have plenty of long-term flexibility, however. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects their luxury tax payroll for the 2022 season at $213MM, a fair bit shy of the $230MM base tax threshold. Looking ahead to 2023, a wide swath of post-2022 free agents and a potential Bogaerts opt-out could see that number plummet to just $60MM, leaving plenty of spots to be filled on the team’s active roster and a huge amount of funds with which to fill them. Bloom acknowledged as much, teasing that future financial flexibility “opens more options for us, maybe (more) than we’ve been working with the last couple years.”

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