Earlier in the week, Astros pitcher Gerrit Cole was the subject of public discussion when owner Jim Crane made comments regarding the team’s projected inability to re-sign the starter this offseason. On Saturday evening, Cole made a statement all his own.
While it would be advantageous for a site with the phrase “trade rumors” in its header to find a transactional tilt to every story, the lead-in to tonight’s closing post is mainly a breathless tribute to the individual performance submitted by Cole in tonight’s 3-1 win over the Rays. As noted by several reporters, the right-hander’s performance in Game 2 of the ALDS was historic on several levels: with 15 strikeouts across 7.2 innings, Cole became just the 7th pitcher to record 15-or-more K’s in a postseason game; Tampa offered 33 swings and misses on Cole offerings–the most in a postseason game in the pitch-tracking era; and in recording multiple career postseason games with more than 12 strikeouts, Cole joined an elite list that includes only himself, Bob Gibson, Jim Palmer, and Tom Seaver.
The 29-year-old former Bruin will enter the offseason as the top starting option on the open market; judging in part from early postseason results, his representatives at Boras Corp should have no trouble this winter in securing Cole a contract guarantee with a healthy amount of zeroes attached to its end.
More from around the AL circuit…
- The postseason odyssey of one Brett Gardner was profiled in a piece from Joel Sherman of the New York Post today, with Sherman describing the outfielder’s rise from a scrappy pinch runner on the 2009 Yankees championship team to the club’s #3 hitter in tonight’s lineup against the Twins (link). Like Cole, Gardner will be a free agent in about a month’s time, as he plays out the end of a one-year/$7.5MM contract signed last offseason. It would be difficult, at this point, to imagine Gardner in anything other than pinstripes, but the Yanks will nonetheless have an interesting decision re: Gardner this winter. Aaron Hicks will, hopefully, have a healthier season in 2020, while outfielder Clint Frazier looms as a cheaper, organizational option for GM Brian Cashman at the corners–although Frazier would admittedly have a hard time replicating Gardner’s excellent baserunning (70.9 career BSR) or defensive skills (+5 DRS in 2019).
- Given the number of open managerial seats around the game, this month has seen a fair share of debate surrounding what, exactly, a manager should be expected to offer in today’s analytically inclined climate. Manager of the Year candidate and Yankees skipper Aaron Boone, for one, might consider submitting “clairvoyance” as one qualification that every managerial candidate should be in possession of, as his own pre-game forecast directly presaged a historic home run for the previously slump-ridden shortstop Didi Gregorius. Before Gregorius launched a game-breaking, third-inning grand slam deep into the seats in tonight’s 8-2 victory over the Twins, Boone was resolute that a breakout for the Dutchman was just around the corner.
“I still maintain that the best is yet to come from Didi,” Boone told James Wagner of The New York Times (link). “Sometimes it just takes one at-bat, one swing to kind of turn it, and I believe that’s what’s in there for Didi still.” Boone was speaking, of course, of the shortstop’s season-long stagnation at the plate, which included Gregorius’ worst postings since coming to the Bronx in 2015 (84 wRC+ this season). After the beginning of his season was delayed until June, Gregorius saw his numbers trend downward through the summer, culminating in a September output that included a .190 batting average. While the pending free agent is unlikely to command an eye-popping contract this offseason (in part due to his 2019 injury troubles), a healthy and productive postseason wouldn’t, at the least, hurt the 29-year-old’s chances of securing a multi-year guarantee. Not that his fellow free-market shortstops will offer stiff competition toward that goal: among a group that may include Freddy Galvis, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Jose Iglesias, Gregorius may represent the most appealing upgrade for clubs in need of SS help this winter.
Cole. Over/Under. . . $250 Million ?
Well under. Record for a SP is 217.
It’s Boras, 250 sounds like a likely starting point for him.
The Cardinals should be in on Cole big time!! However, the Cardinals are financially stressed and locked into way too many dud contracts with over the hill players—contract issued by president of baseball operations John Mozeliak. An example is Brett Cecil who signed
Angels routinely love to blow contract ceilings up, I can see them offering Cole 12/300 pretty easily.
There’s no chance that a 29 year old pitcher gets a 12 year contract
No, not for a pitcher.
SPs pretty much get 7 years max. Even at Trout’s Salary he would be short of $250 over 7 years. So I’d go “Under”. However, If I were a GM I’d give him over 250m.
I’ll admit, I am on the Gerrit Cole Bandwagon. I desperately wish he was an Atlanta Brave but he will probably never be one. Unless whoever signs him wants to dump some of his contract on another team by the time he is 35 & less talented. BUT
Gerrit Cole led the MLB with 326 K’s. The only other Pitcher in the 21st Century (or 3rd Millennium) with more Strikeouts than Cole is Randy Johnson!!!! That was 17 years ago btw.
The only Pitchers to get more K’s in a season in the 20th Century are: 1) Nolan Ryan 2) Randy Johnson 3) Sandy Koufax 4) Bob Feller 5) Rube Waddell.
As if doing something that only 5 guys in the past 118 years have done wasn’t impressive enough,
Only Ryan & Randy did that in less than 300 Innings.
According to Baseball Savant in 2019 Gerrit Cole was in the:
97th Percentile for Fastball Velocity.
96th Percentile for Fastball Spin
94th Percentile for Curveball Spin
98th Percentile for xwOBA
96th Percentile for xBA
96th Percentile for xSLG
(He is also above Average in Exit Velocity & Hard Hit %)
He has 4 really good Pitches & the Velocity to throw 100mph in the 8th Inning (after throwing like 115 Pitches before that).
He also had the 2nd Lowest WHIP (0.89) & Opposing Batting Average (0.186),
He also has the 3rd Lowest ERA (2.50) in the MLB. Which was good enough to lead the AL. Given the AL has a DH & some super HR parks, a 2.50 ERA isn’t much different than a 2.32 ERA in the NL. The teams at the top of the MLB in runs were often in the AL.
He is younger than a lot of the other Free Agents. In his 7 seasons only 2 of them had stints on the DL. Ofc Not every Injury gets you on the DL. But he isn’t a Durability concern in my opinion. He just pitched the 4th most Innings in the MLB.
Possibly the most important thing about Gerrit Cole is his continued success in Lost Season. Even before that last game, He had done good in the Playoffs. He is a guy you want on your team when you are trying to win a World Series.
So regardless of what his exact worth is, I’d give him over 250m over 7 years to sign him in a heartbeat.
You’re basically suggesting 280MM X 7 yrs. 40 mill per year. I get everything you’ve said. I’ve seen every game he’s pitched this year. Every inning. Superb. He will command a fortune. I wonder how much a pitcher like Bob Gibson would fetch in free agency today, statisticy inferior to Cole this year but the King of complete games. Osuna almost ruined Cole’s outing last night. Tried his darndest.
I said over 250m. You could give him 7 Years 252m. That would pay him slightly more than Greinke (34.4m) & Trout (35.5m) @ 36 Million a year. While Still giving him the 7 years that the top Starting Pitchers have earned.
That would be a record breaking contract & a bargain at the same time.
If Cole continues pitching like he did last time he was on the mound…his market will go Crazy.
Your guess is likely to be spot on…though I would hesitate at going past 6 years. RH starters seem to take a step back at 30 and then again at 35.
Yanks should offer him him 6/$210 plus maybe a couple of vesting options @ $30 per making it potentially 6/$270 mil. I would be hesitant to go past 6 years. He’s a bulldog but at what point will all those innings catch up to him?
He gets 7 years ezpz.
He’s 28, he’s getting 10+ years.
@Strike Four
He’s 29.
Never in the last 20 years has a FA SP signed a contract as long as 10 years, Cole is not the first super fantastic SP to hit FA before his 30th birthday. In today’s world of advanced analytics that show how procepitus a fall-off can be expected for most pitchers after age. Now Verlander, Grienke, Morton, and Hamels might be the exception but most of those guys are either towards the end of a much longer deal or recently signed short-term deals.
Any team signing Cole to a 10 year deal do so are paying him up to his age 38 season AND are likely paying him a very high aav. Unless the team is just super, super desperate then I don’t see that happening. The Yanks certainly NEED a guy like Cole but I think they would rather pay him a record high aav (maybe Cash goes to 7/$280-7/$300 mil but I don’t think he has the stomach for a 10 year deal to a starter who already has over 1,200 IP on his arm.
South Beach is right. Starters dont get 10 year deals anymore. 7 years is the new Standard for the best starters in baseball. The only guy right now with more than that is scheduled to make less money over his 8 year contract than Gerrit Cole will make in just 1 year.
He doesn’t have as much mileage and he’s younger than most guys are when they hit the market. I think he tops the 217 that price got, and his AAV is gonna be very high. I’m thinking it’s less than250 though. My guess is 235 over 7 years with an opt out after 4?
Wrong Bob Gibson
Wow, what an amazing performance. Gerrit Cole has come a long way since his days with the Pirates.
It’s amazing what can be achieved when you don’t have a pitching coach telling you to trade your best pitches for two seamers and sinkers.
Trade Greinke. Throw in some cash. Resign Cole.
You’re obviously unfamiliar with Zack Greinke. Also, throwing money at a problem doesn’t always work.
Are you trying to say Greinke is as good as Cole?
Na, just that Greinke has an extensive no trade clause.
This conversation ended with a KO in the first round
I mean, its not that extensive.
Cole was way worse than Greinke when he came over from the Pirates. With how Verlander and Miley figured out how to pitch I think best is yet to come for him.
Yanks or Dodgers is my guess for Cole.
I would add the Phillies to that list.
Agreed, I think they’ll go the furthest to get him. Middleton wants to spend money.
I view the Phillies as the favorites to sign him. If they really want him, and they should, nobody can outbid them
Angels, Dodgers or Padres, he wants to be in Socal.
Arte Moreno starts paying trout huge this upcoming season and is fighting the city of Anaheim for a rights to rebuild a stadium with benefits. This is the year he finally brings the payroll to the 200 range. Expect them to go and sign
Pitchers:
Gerrit Cole
Jake Odirizzi
Drew Pomeranz
bring back Joe smith
A cheap flyer on:
Kyle Gibson or Wacha or Martin Perez
Trade for a defensive pitch framing catcher
Austin Barnes or Austin Hedges
Yanks / Phils / Dodgers / Rangers will all try to get him.
Why would the Angels start raising payroll now?, especially with those obvious problems you’ve listed.
And still not make the playoffs
Cole will sign with one of the CA teams for at least $218 million.
Cole will be an Angel or a Padre it is inevitable. I expect an Angel with them moving Simmons for another SP & bringing in his brother in law either to help entice him or as some sort of a package deal to get him there.
Yea because that brother-in-law angle worked so well for the White Sox.
Cole has said himself he wants to be in Socal, and all 3 of those teams could offer him 250-300M+.
They probably won’t though. Padres already have a lot of money wrapped up in 2 guys. The dodgers have a high payroll and very good pitching as is, and the angels probably aren’t ready to spend that kind of money with Pujols still there. I know Josh Hamilton and CJ Wilson’s contracts are coming off the books soon, so that may help. I’m just not so sure they do it.
Cole has never said anything about his destination preference.
Right….probably because his destination will be dictated by the team that offers the most years and cash! He’s a Boras client.
This guy should call himself strike five six and so on
@Strike Four
Please cite a source where he said publicly that he wanted to be signed by a CA team? What would be the reasoning to say that and eliminate the Astros and all of the big market east coast teams that Boras could use to create a frenzied market for his FA push? I doubt he said it.
This will be one of the toughest decisions Cashman will ever have to make over the winter, Didi is the heart and soul of the team. DJ is best at second and Gleyber is solid at SS. First priority is to get either Cole or Strasburg if available, and resign Betances. Long term they will have over 100 million coming off the books in 21, but they could lose Paxton, Tanaka, and Happ in two years., so I see them signing a free agent starter, and trading for one in the off season.
I doubt Gerrit Cole would want to shave.
Cole grew up a Yankee fan.
Cole grew up and Angels fan
Nope. Dad grew up in Syracuse. There are multiple articles on it.
@Bocephus
At the end of the day, it likely won’t be a major factor in his decision process but he has said publicly that he grew up a Yankee fan. His father grew up in Syracuse and passed it down to him. Cole has said that Mo was one of his favorite players. He attended the 2001 WS vs the Angles wearing a Yankee hat. He might well have bi-coastal favorite teams, but again, probably will have little bearing on where he signs.
SBB, that angle of growing up a fan of a team didn’t work for NY in Corbin or Harper.
@PopeMarley
Did you miss where I said that twice or did you just say “must spread Yankee hate”?
“At the end of the day, it likely won’t be a major factor in his decision process……”
“….but again, probably will have little bearing on where he signs”..
“did you just say “must spread Yankee hate”? What in blue blazes are you going on about?
Southbeachpussy believes if you dont bow down to Yankee nation and worship every Yankee and Yankee fan then you are a hater.
Uber yankee fans.
Bow down to me now
Hey melch-it’s hard to bend down when your face is touching the ground, doesn’t it?
Both you and your moronic BF Geeson love to profess being Yankee Fans. However real Yankee fans don’t bash the tried and true players like CC and Gardy.
Notice that your humpback friend has now disappeared. Or he’s come up with a new identity and has gone into hiding with his stupid comments that you also profess.
So do the only thing that you can do with your face touching the ground. Suck up the soil and tuck your nonesense.
Cole will do anything the team that pays him the most wants….he’s not another Keuchel! Not taking a deal because you like facial hair isn’t smart at all.
True!
Didi isn’t the heart and soul of the team, Judge very obviously is! Gleyber will be too. Gleyber annihilates Didi in every aspect of the game and the Yankees need to move on from him.
Judge too! Maybe!
Lol…
@slider32
After all the injuries the Yanks suffered this year the lesson learned is that talented depth (as opposed to just a utility guy or AAA fill in) is important. Limiting DJ to one position is not getting the most value from him. I think Cash understands that Didi was not 100% this year coming off the injury and will sign him to a deal. Didi, Gardner, Hicks and Ford are the only LF hiters we have and Gardner will likely be brought back for 1 year but Ford probably won’t be our starting 1B. I doubt Didi is looking to leave NY and he’s in no position to try and leverage a prohibitive contract. I think they find a way to bring him back in 2020. Didi may not be “the heart” but he is absolutely the captain of that infield and I think has been a good influence for Torres and Andujar.
“Limiting DJ to one position is not getting the most value from him”
I was just about to say this, i couldnt agree more. Obviously they’ll be fine without Didi with the players they have, but they can be much better with Didi, given that he has been solid throughout his entire tenure with the Yanks and it allows DJ to give everyone rest. They got a good thing going on with that infield, I’m not sure what incentive there is to break it up.
I look for the Yankees to let DIDi go and trade for Lindor then lock him up long term. This will happen once Cole decides he doesn’t want to pitch in pinstripes.
Then Trump and Maxine Waters will make a Christmas album.
Andjuhar, fraizer to the Rangets for Lynn.
You’re obviously a Rangers fan. It’s spelled Andujar by the way.
Hahahahaha yeah Lance bleeping Lynn is definitely worth those two.
Yankees are not trading Andujar
@CowboysoldierFTW For whatever reason, Cash let Lynn walk in FA last year, despite solid advanced numbers. I doubt he goes out of his way to trade to trade for him. And why would the Rangers make that trade anyway coming off of the year Lynn just had. That deal has proven, at least short-term, to be a win for the Rangers.
Yankees clearly will make a run at Cole. Gregorious is as good as gone. Andujar will return and they have options with Urshela at 3B, LeMahieu and Torres. No way they are paying Didi who now has an injury history.
@metsie1
“No way they are paying Didi who now has an injury history.”. While they are cheap and affordable vs what Didi can get as a FA both Torres and Andujar have a “injury history” as well. They both missed large portions of an entire season as well, and if I’m correct, with the same kind of injury that Didi had.
Didi solidifies the left side of the field when he had two rookie playing on either side of him. I don’t want to over exaggerate intangibles and clubhouse character but I just don’t see Cashman, allowing Didi to just walk. Didi is the first player Cash acquired in his retooling of this team. Didi still hits homers and still has an above average glove. I think his swing can be fixed.
Cole is great but he is a #2. He can’t front a staff or be a savior, he is a much more talented Sonny Gray. Much of his otherworldly success comes from pitching in Verlander’s shadow. I have never seen someone more comfortable in another man’s shadow.
If the Angels, Padres, Phillies, Rangers, White Sox, or Yankees bring him in to front their staff it could be a major disaster.
He would be a good fit on the Nationals or the Giants (if they re-sign Bumgarner [who, I know, is not as good as Cole, but would provide a large shadow for him to pitch from.]) The Angels (and Padres and Phillies if they want to go crazy) have enough space to bring in Bumgarner along with him so that could work, too.
Replace “Cole” with “Strasburg” as needed.
this post is a #2 good god
I read “He is a #2” and said out loud “ah man here we go” lol
Cole is the best pitcher in the game, troll.
Why even write so many words if youre going to be so wrong with your opening statement? my lord you are a bad at knowing baseball.
I always thought spinach was funny, this only confirms that
If this this post were a ball player it’s back story would be cut from high school jv team.
I don’t know if it would have made the jv team in the first place.
@spinach
When writing this did you ever hear a little voice rapping into your ear screaming “Don’t do it! Reconsider, read some liter-ature on the subject? You sure? F*** it”
You should’ve listened. Cole might not be Cole if it weren’t for the two year tutelage of Verlander and buying into the advance metrics used by Houston but he has certainly learned and put it all together and will likely be a #1 on 90% of mlb teams going forward, if healthy.
#andre3000reference.
Everyone is in arms that the Yankees are beating the Twins. Big deal. They should be pounding them into the ground like the jokes they are!
Bringing back CC and Gardner is going to expose the Yankees for what they are.
Cole, Ver, Grienkie are going to slide right into the WS.
The Yankees not signing Corbin or Morton in the Off season is going to expose them in the PS and but not grabbing a starter during the trade line is another big mistake.
By not going out and upgrading your SP staff has already been exposed. The Yankees do not have home field advantage another mistake all because they did not UPGRADE THEIR SP. For the umpteen time in 10 years!
When it’s all say and done they will not make the WS due to their SP and what will most of you do? Oh let’s bring back CC and Gardner. Our SP staff is great we don’t need a Sp and CC is the best #5 out there.
Stay tune so I can tell you I was right about their entire season
Wow, hope the smell from that comment Beans, doesn’t blow our way!
We’ll see won’t we!
It’s the same ol same ol with this team. I’m not falling for the same results. Throw the same out there and expect different results?
@louiebeans
You remind me of the character Jimmy Two Times from Goodfellas, who got that nickname because he said everything twice, like: “I’m gonna go get the papers, get the papers” except with you it’s something about Gardner and CC.
Here’s a fact. The wheels finally came off for Sabathia after a very good 2018. However, when discussing the signing Cashman said publicly that the signing would NOT prohibit them from acquiring Corbin if the price was right. But CC doesn’t matter now. They won 103 games despite him, he’s not on the post-season roster and is retiring. And for Gardner, it might be said that without him, the Yanks wouldn’t be where they are today as he was the ONLY outfielder out of Judge, Hicks and Stanton to play at least 103 games and in fact, was top 20 in WAR among all mlb OF and 3rd overall inside the Yanks position players. Gardner has been an absolute success for the Yanks and deserves another 1 year roll of the dice,
Fact: You’re an idiot if you think CC with a 3.45 era last year didn’t deserve a 1 year deal to be A FREAKING 5TH STARTER!!!! This team’s pitching didn’t end up in the piscadu because of CC. It went south because of injuries to Severino and inconsistencies from Tanaka, Happ and early in the year, Paxton too. If anyone wants to put the blame on the failings of a 5th starter is an idiot.
But one thing I’ve learned and I hope it proves to be true this year, is that all you need is for a couple of starters to get hot and maintain that hot hand for a couple of weeks. Let’s hope Severino can perform as well as Paxton and Tanaka have thus far. But let’s not act as if the 1996-2000 Yanks were some awesome staff that shut down lineups in the postseason. They won despite not having the best SP. The Atlanta Braves have proven that good pitchers can be beaten by good, relentless lineups 1-9.
Also, let’s not claim this series a win until we lock in that 3rd victory. But have more respect for the Twins. By fWAR they rank top 5 in hitting and pitching,
Yankees ain’t winning the WS with the current SP rotation you heard it here.
Louiebeans ain’t gotta brain stem—you heard it here.
Wow Louie-we don’t listen to dummies, so we don’t hear you. Ok? It’s time to go into the closet and scream.
Hey Southbeach-Louie and his two GF’s Melch and Geeson (who is such a girl that he has dropped off the site) were whining about CC, Gardy and Cash since early in the year.
Well they put up and it’s time for them to shut up. Gardy had a better Slugging % than the cute trio’s choices, Harper and Machado. And when CC has a chance to appear in the ALCS or WS he will
Undoubtedly be lights out.
The whimps are due to be slapped….time for one of these losers to lose their jobs because their employers found somebody smarter (easy) or younger (karma).
Hey dope. Watch the Astros and u will see that they only have a magical two pitcher rotation. Tonight was more of the same for their starter who was so bad in post season that his former team didn’t pitch him last year in the post season.
Baseball is changing, even though from your odor it appears that you are in need of a change of diapers. Bullpens are more important than starters.
HOU should offer Cole 20-20-30-30-35-35-30-30-25-25 with a $20 million signing bonus.
I’m thinking 5 for $ 180, but structured 20 40 40 40 40
I think Cole to the angels is almost a lock, he’s from orange county and he’s a big fan of Ohtani. I think they make an offer of 6-7 years 220-225
Dump Gardner. Dude is trash
@Woodlawn You mean Gardner with the 28 homers (16 on the road away from YS), above average defense at LF and CF and the 3.6 WAR on a 1/$8 mil deal. That guy? ,
Uber, Uber, Uber
Yes southbeach….I’m happy to report that Woodlawn and Melch are eating horse manure as the just watched Gardy knock in the 2nd run in Game 3.
I don’t think Cole is going to hit the open market.
@Cole Shepherd
Dude….it’s October 6th. The 2019 regular season is over. He’s maybe two to three weeks away from being a FA. His agent is Boras. Of course he’s going to hit the open market.
Dude – he and Crane & Luhnow have been working on this for weeks and weeks. Cole wants to stay, Crane wants to keep him. Every public statement from both sides makes this obvious. Astros get to the Series, they prob keep him. Astros win series, it’s a lock.7/215. at 20/20, bunch of 35s.. It would be ideal to do this AND stay under tax in 2020, but I can’t see HOW that is possible. The way I see it, if ALL of Grieke’s 35 mil goes into the calc, then they’re at around 245 M – you MIGHT be able to shave 11 by signing both Correa & Springer to long term pacts, maybe 5 more by letting Peacock walk.
I think he will get six years 216 Million or 7 years 252 million… Angles, White Sox, Phillis, Texas And the Yankees will pursue him, that’s what I think.
Yanks will not be out bid for Cole!
Funny you said the same thing about Corbin last year
Corbin did great today too, right Bo?
Cole is going and staying West Coast.
Alex Cora was a Manager Of The Year candidate in 2018 and still didn’t win because Boston is a big market team so Boone will be a candidate yes but won’t win for the exact same reason Cora didn’t it’ll probably be either Kevin Cash with TB (small market) or Rocco Baldelli with Minnesota (market not as big as NY)
Gardner should stick around. If he’s willing to be a fourth outfielder, I’m sure the Yankees would love to have him.
Strikeouts is not everything. HR is not everything either. We should have a broader understanding or vision. Astros defense, coaches, manager, park measurement, weather, fans, reporters, etc. He is very talented, creative and effective game planner, etc. His endurance or stamina have been excellent so far. But after those innings, fastballs and K’s; I wouldn’t be surprised of a TJ soon.
Past record is not a forecast of future performance. It may gives an idea, but…
Older or mature players should have a performance based contract. The same way they have a no-trade clause, they should have a non performance o a performance clause or bonuses.