Earlier tonight, we took a look at pending free-agent pitchers who are candidates to receive a qualifying offer before the market opens in a few weeks. We’ll do the same here with hitters who are on the cusp of free agency. Players who have received the QO in the past can’t get it again (Brewers catcher Yasmani Grandal and third baseman Mike Moustakas come to mind), nor can those who were part of in-season trades (Nicholas Castellanos of the Cubs and Yasiel Puig of the Indians, to name two).
Easy Calls:
- Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals: The Nationals reportedly made a recent extension offer to Rendon worth more than $200MM. So, of course they’d take him back for a year at roughly $18MM. However, as one of the best players in the game, Rendon would have an easy time rejecting the QO.
- Josh Donaldson, 3B, Braves: After two straight injury-limited seasons, the Braves took a $23MM gamble on Donaldson last winter. The move has worked out swimmingly. Donaldson will enter the playoffs off a healthy season, one in which he slashed .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs and 4.9 fWAR in 659 plate appearances.
Likely:
- Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals: While Ozuna was not at his best during the regular campaign, he’ll still be one of the most sought-after hitters on the market. The soon-to-be 29-year-old comes with a fairly long track record of above-average production, evidenced by the fact that he will go to free agency on the heels of his fifth season with upward of 2.0 fWAR. He slashed .243/.330/.474 with 29 homers and a personal-high 12 steals in 549 PA this season.
Borderline:
- Jose Abreu, 1B/DH, White Sox: As of a couple months ago, Abreu did not look like a legitimate QO candidate. But the 32-year-old ended the season with a flourish en route to an overall line of .284/.330/.503 with 33 homers in 693 trips to the plate. While Abreu and the White Sox have made it known they’d like to work out an extension, the team could fall back on a QO if it’s unable to reach a multiyear agreement with him.
- Didi Gregorius, SS, Yankees: This was not a banner regular season for Gregorius, who missed the first two-plus months of the campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery last fall. After that, Gregorius saw his numbers plummet in comparison to the previous couple seasons, as he hit an uninspiring .238/.276/.441 with 16 home runs in 344 trips to the plate. Fortunately for Gregorius, he’s far and away the highest-upside shortstop due to reach free agency. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Yankees saddle him with a QO.
Opt-Out Possibility:
- J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox: If Martinez does become a free agent, he’ll be a slam dunk to receive a QO. The question is whether the offensive standout will take a chance on going back to the market. Martinez, 32, would be abandoning a guaranteed three years and $62.5MM by doing so. As a defensively limited player who doesn’t have age on his side and is coming off a year in which his production plummeted in comparison to 2017-18 (though it was still very good), Martinez would be taking a substantial risk by opting for free agency.
3/45 for Abreu
I wouldn’t think he’d be willing to take a pay cut, so my guess is at least 3/$48M
He’s getting a pay cut even when the Sox don’t offer a QO.
My Didi prediction: gets a few exploratory 2-4 year deals at around $15M AAV, gets a huge offer from the Reds or someone like that for 4 years at $17M+ AAV, re-signs with the Yankees for 1 year/$18M or 3 years/$34M w/ a $6M buyout on a $17M option or something like that.
Didi 100% gets the Q.A. and he might very well take it unless he gets an insanely lucrative long term offer from a team desperate for his services or he signs a team friendly deal to stay with the Yankees. I see Didi as a guy with a limited market- Yanks would take him for 1 year/$18M or 3-4 years at around $10M AAV and most other teams will probably consider 3-4 year deals for $13-17M AAV but not seriously want to commit that roster space and percentage of budget and if he took the QA and then saw his market dwindle in ensuing seasons, I don’t think he’d lose a ton of income that he might’ve given up on a long term deal this off season. So the real question is does he want the extra money guaranteed, in which case Didi goes to a team like the Reds for probably 4 years/$70M or so, or does he stick with the Yankees as a platoon player for 1 year/$18M or for 2-3 years at $10M AAV or so?
It’s a qualifying offer I’m not sure where you’re getting the “QA” from.
QO’s are a yes or no thing and they are not FA’s until after they decide. So they can’t accept FA offers and then decide. That’s not how it works.
Didi stays in New York…just as a Met and not a Yankee! He will play SS and they will move Rosario to CF.
That has about a zero percent chance of happening.
TrilTO? Dang man! Those greenies from the 50/60’s? Bro crush?
I don’t know why I kept typing QA instead of QO it just kinda happened, but I meant QO/Qualifying Offer.
But Didi has to accept or reject the qualifying offer before free agency opens so that doesn’t work. I believe they have a week to decide.
gets a huge offer from the Reds or someone like that for 4 years at $17M+ AAV,
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I’m not sure why the Reds wouldn’t just stick with Iglesias. Pretty decent season at a pretty cheap price.
Marcell Ozuna should accept the QO if he gets one
No one paying that man big
I agree 100%
Trading away Ozuna is turning into one of the best trades the Marlins made after Sherman bought the team. Alcantara, Gallen (traded for Jazz Chisholm), Sierra, and Castano.
Other than Rendon, there is not one guy on that list I would be willing to pay top dollars and give away a draft pick for.
Will be interesting to see how many guys overplay their hand and reject the QO and then live to regret it. Teams just aren’t willing to pay guys with red flags in their profile who are on the wrong side of 30. It doesn’t mean there’s collusion, it just means they’re all doing the same math. It’s not a problem with the system, it’s just that some of these players (and agents) aren’t very good at assessing their value in the market.
Ozuna is still just 29 and doesn’t have many red flags.
Donaldson will be worth every penny he gets, and I hope those pennies come from the Braves after he re-ups.
I see Oz in a 1 yr so he re-establish his value howver if multi yr then a 3/51
Who could the Cardinals get to replace Ozuna? Remember—-John Mozeliak is in charge there. We who follow the Cardinals know Mozeliak will most likely do nothing to keep Ozuna!! Mozeliak will do nothing!! Mozeliak doesn’t like dealing with acquiring star Impact players. Mozeliak will either fill Ozuna’s spot with a rookie or Low Hanging Fruit player that will Roy Just after Spring Training.
Rot, not Roy…..
Didn’t mozeliak acquire Ozuna and then Goldschmjdt the past 2 off seasons?
Mozeliak and Girsch also spend in free agency when they need to do so, such as with Holliday, Lohse, Peralta, Fowler, Mikolas, etc. They just have restraint against overpaying the top tier players on the market. If Ozuna turns down the QO, they’ll still probably try to resign him or go after a similarly expensive free agent outfielder.
I would just like to point out to every baseball executive in existence that the lost draft pick is worth less than every single player on this list. Prospects are bulls***. Remember Wil Myers was the #1 prospect for 3 consecutive years? Matt Wieters was supposed to be a switch-hitting Mike Piazza if Piazza was a Gold Glove defender. How’d that go? Keuchel and Kimbrel will out-perform everyone from 2019 on except for 1 or 2 guys taken in the supplemental round. At least try to put a winning team on the field.
Among my favorite stupid takes. There aren’t enough quality MLB players out there to fill every roster with talent. And current players get hurt, get old, become ineffective. You have to have a pipeline of … prospects! … to replace them.
Kimbrel and Keuchel did not drop from the sky as 24-y.o. Major Leaguers. They were, at one time, prospects. They spent time in the minors and developed into stars.
Some prospects become superstars. Others wash out. Most are somewhere in between. The notion that prospects are worthless to an organization is DUM dumb.
They aren’t worthless, however they are overvalued. San Diego has had a top 10 system for 5-10 years. How’s that going?
I will stick to my guns that every QO-eligible player will be more valuable moving forward than every single supplemental round pick except for 1 or 2. “Go be stupid somewhere else.” -Squidward Tentacles
Draft picks have become somewhat overvalued in some eyes, though. While it wouldn’t make sense for, say the Orioles, to go out and chase a QO guy and lose a pick; it makes all the sense in the world for a contending team that might be close. If you believe a guy takes you to that next level you do it, because there’s no guarantee that kid you draft turns out to be good. Look at how some of the best players in the game like Trout and Acuna were acquired.
Thank you. Luxury Tax concerns aside, I’d have rather had Kimbrel anchoring the Red Sox Bullpen than whoever they didn’t even draft because he got boned until his signing didn’t come with a draft pick.
I saw a scouting report that Kevin Kiermaier was the next Jim Edmonds. There’s a scouting report every 3-5 years that compares a Left handed CF to one of the 20 best CFs ever.
They were right. Except for the ability to hit, hit for power, get on base, and stay healthy, Kevin Kiermaier is Jim Edmonds II. Yay prospects.
I’m not crazy about the logic that says ‘so-and-so didn’t make it, so prospects are worthless. And the draft choice is not made to replace the player, but to give the team some recompense. It’s the money that drives the choice, not the draft comp.
I agree Joe.
Also, there are also plenty of guys who came out of nowhere, including guys on this list like JDM. 20th round pick, released by the Astros and now one of the top 5-10 hitters in the league for the last 3-5 years.
JD Martinez will not opt out! He’ll lose a 63 million Boston commitment for a QO from Boston? besides, Any other team offering JD more $ will also have to give up a high level prospect. I don’t see any team offering this for a DH.
Martinez, despite a slight drop in production, could get more than 62.5/3 from maybe Tampa Bay, Seattle, Texas but certainly from the White Sox. They have plenty of room under the luxury tax and good reason to over pay for JD’s services. Their DH production was the worst in the league last year (the worst in either league actually); they have a core of young hitters who would greatly benefit from his eagerness to share his knowledge about hitting; and the White Sox, who are eager to show they can sign top tier free agents but leery of deals that exceed 5 years, would, I think, jump at the chance to add Martinez at $75/3 or even 100/4.
JD or Mookie—-no matter what management says–one must go. OR Trade Sale or Price.
Trade JBJ or Benny For a reliable Pen arm.
Porcello–will they make him a Qualifying offer?
Holt—Moreland—Pearce—Sandoval—Hanley—-will probably not return.
What happens with Wright, Cashner, Barnes, Chacin, Hembree?
Yes, and imo, both should go.
I’d prefer to go out and buy a good BP arm.
Porcello definitely no.
Holt is a likely yes, and I’d take Moreland back as well. Good production for a cheap price.
Barnes & Hembree stay. Wright is pretty cheap, so maybe.
Sale/price and their contracts are unmovable after their health issues this year/aav going forward.
Sandoval and Hanley haven’t been on the roster in more than a year, so no worries about them coming back? Not sure where you were going with that part.
Jbj and his mendoza line production won’t return a reliable pen arm, so there’s more money Boston needs to spend
Tl:dr, Boston is in a major budget crisis if they realistically want to get below the luxury tax, and it’s going to take letting jd walk/opt out and trading mookie
I’m surprised STL didn’t come to terms with Ozuna on an in-season extension. I figured the 2 sides would be a good match. They must not want to pay his asking price and would prefer the QO’s draft pick and/or just don’t want him around or think he is good value.
White Sox should have either traded or extended Abreu by the deadline. Or just traded him when they sold off Sale, Quintana and Eaton. There was no benefit to having him on the team the past 3 years.
I see Ozuna as another easy call. Even if he accepts it, the Cardinals would be glad to have him back for another year at a fair $17.8M.