The Mariners have been exploring several trade possibilities involving catcher Omar Narvaez, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). The Seattle club has “shown a desire” to trade the 27-year-old (28 in February) and could complete a deal “soon,” per Passan.
At this point, there’s little doubt that Narvaez is a quality offensive player. The Venezuelan-born backstop has been an OBP machine since debuting in the Majors back in 2016, and his power has increased both in 2018 and in 2019. He’s a career .276/.361/.411 hitter in 1216 plate appearances at the MLB level, including a stout .278/.353/.480 batting line with a career-high 22 home runs in 482 plate appearances this past season. He’s walked in 11.3 percent of his MLB plate appearances against a 17.8 percent strikeout rate — both of which are better than the league average in today’s game of three true outcomes.
It’s easy to attribute the power spike to the juiced ball in 2019, but Narvaez’s new career-high in home runs is also reflective of the fact that he shattered his previous career-high in plate appearances by a measure of 160. In fact, his .182 isolated power mark (slugging minus batting average) was only 28 points higher than 2018’s .154.
What’s also clear about Narvaez, however, is that he’s struggled defensively in every season of his big league career. His 21 percent caught-stealing rate at the MLB level is well south of the 28 percent league average in that time, and Baseball Prospectus has ranked him near the bottom of the league for his abilities (or lack thereof) to block pitches. Narvaez did markedly improve in terms of limiting passed balls in 2019 (three in 815 2/3 innings after allowing 12 in 653 1/3 innings in 2018), but that was the one silver lining in his glovework.
Framing, in particular, has been a struggle for Narvaez, who ranks poorly in that regard by virtually any estimation. Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs and Statcast all peg Narvaez near the bottom of the league in terms of framing value. Narvaez has caught 2386 1/3 innings in his career and registered -41 Defensive Runs Saved. Baseball Prospectus ranked him alongside Josh Phegley, Welington Castillo, Pedro Severino, Chance Sisco and James McCann as one of MLB’s worst defenders at the position in 2019.
Narvaez is under club control for another three seasons and will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $2.9MM salary for Narvaez in his first trip through that process, and he’ll be eligible twice more before reaching free agency in the 2022-23 offseason.
Though his glove is hardly appealing, it’s hard to understate just how much better than the league-average catcher Narvaez been at the plate in his big league career. Since he debuted, the league-average offensive output from catchers has checked in at .240/.310/.396. Narvaez’s .276/.361/.411 line is markedly better across the board. And while the average catcher’s production has actually declined across the past two seasons, Narvaez has improved, posting a .277/.358/.448 that trounces the average catcher.
A club that either believes itself to be capable of improving Narvaez’s glove or is simply willing to trade some defense for uncannily solid offense from the catcher position could certainly look into acquiring Narvaez — particularly if it’s an AL club that can occasionally stash him at DH. Among the teams with yet-unaddressed needs behind the plate this winter are the Astros, Angels, Rangers, Rockies, Pirates and Brewers. Several other clubs could stand to add a second catcher, with the A’s in particular having been linked to lefty-hitting catchers. Given the awful level of production from most catchers — particularly backup options — Narvaez could be argued as a logical fit for most clubs throughout the league, although his defensive red flags make it every bit as easy to craft a counterargument against acquiring him.
Moving Narvaez now could be sensible for the Mariners, given the substantial demand for catchers with both Yasmani Grandal and Travis d’Arnaud now off the market. Jason Castro and Robinson Chirinos are the top two catchers remaining in free agency, and while other catchers could surely be on the move via the trade circuit, there’s no clearly available star-caliber option as there was last winter with J.T. Realmuto. The Cubs’ Willson Contreras has seen his name pop up in rumors already, but Chicago needn’t feel pressure to trade him. And, with Seattle possessing a solid in-house option (Tom Murphy) as well as an intriguing prospect on the horizon (Cal Raleigh), it doesn’t appear that Narvaez will be a vital piece of the core once the rebuild ends — perhaps as soon as 2021.
I hate how some of these writers talk crap about players like this. Yeah I know he isn’t the greatest defensive player but I will guarantee you he’s doing the best he can and working everyday to improve. I get that it’s the media too but they are still like any other player
i feel like Narvaez in specific gets piled on a lot. he actually caught over 150 more innings this year and allowed just 1/4 the passed balls. that alone by no means make him a good defender, but at the very least it shows some improvement.
Acknowledging a clear flaw that every team will factor into its valuation of Narvaez isn’t “talking crap” about him. It’s just reality.
At no point did I question Narvaez’s work ethic, his character, his personality or his will to improve. Nor did I dwell on his glove at the expensive of laying out how much clearly better he is than the league-average catcher with the bat.
Yeah now I realize what you meant but sometimes I feel like players deserve more than what they are talked about at times. I went a bit far
Won’t someone think of the players!!!!!
I’ll ‘talk crap’ about the reliance and accuracy of advanced analytics AND the discrepancy in comparing the various sites. For example, How can Baseball Prospectus consider James McCann as “one of MLB’s worst defenders at the position in 2019” while Baseball Reference grades him as one of the best with his accumulative 1.4 dWAR metric? Because one values pitch-framing above all else while the other doesn’t? I can’t wait until until MLB adopts ‘robo-umps’ in the near future which will do away with the inherent inconsistency of the human eye and forever abolish a pitch-framing stat which is just another form of cheating in the game.
McCann has always been one of MLB’s best catchers at thwarting the oppositions running game which is reflected in his well above average CS% each season. His 31% in 2019 was actually one of his worst metrics, registering only 4% above the AL average of 27% which could very well have been a reflection of working with a starting rotation lacking a regular lefty after Carlos Rodon succumbed to TG surgery while the remainder of the staff consisted of young power arms lacking in command outside of veteran Ivan Nova.
Additionally, how do you factor in other important intangibles like prep time? What amount of credit would you give McCann for the notable difference in Lucas Giolito’s performance from 2018 to 2019? McCann was a Tiger in 2018 while Giolito was one of MLB’s worst starting pitchers with a -1.3 bWAR that was fueled by his league leading 118 ER’s, 90 BB’s and an ugly 1.39 SO/W ratio. McCann signed as a FA with the White Sox last December, 3 weeks after his non-tender by the Tigers. This past season, Giolito underwent a remarkable turnaround with McCann as his personal catcher and project. Giolito registered a 5.6 bWAR, cut his BB’s down to 57 in a comparable amount of IP’s, improved his SO/BB to 4.0 while becoming the White Sox ace and a contender for the AL Cy Young Award.
If you don’t believe MLB organizations take into account non-gradable intangibles like baseball IQ and work ethic, particularly at MLB’s most prime defensive position, while also examining all the available analytics you are sadly mistaken. Kudos to the White Sox for recognizing McCann’s overall ability last offseason and then doubling down on perhaps the games best receiver last week when they signed FA Yasmani Grandal to a four year contract assuring them of their core catcher beyond 2020 when McCann is eligible for free agency.
How is pitch framing cheating?
Uhmm…by catching a ball outside the strike zone and moving the glove into it in order to fool or convince the ump it was really a strike?
This certainly won’t need to occur once the ‘robo-ump’ is implemented, no?
Please.
This has been part of the game for years .I was taught about pitch framing in Little League 30 years ago. It’s always been a prerequisite skill for catchers.
And that’s not what catch framing necessarily is. How a catcher sets up behind the plate, how they position themselves to catch breaking pitches and their ability to maintain glove position after catching a ball also factor into framing.
In many cases, the exact opposite of what you say is the problem. A lot of catchers – like Narvaez, move their glove with the momentum of a pitch, meaning that it looks like they caught the ball outside of the zone.
Just because you don’t value the skill, or its importance, doesn’t mean it’s not legitimate, and it certainly isn’t cheating.
Saying pitch framing is cheating is most laughable thing I’ve ever heard. You’ve gone way too high on an integrity high horse if you think that is cheating.
snowflakes are numerous today. They need to get out of mommy’s basement.
Stating the metrics of a player is not “talking crap”. It’s how players are valued in today’s day and age.
Lol
I hate how some of these commenters talk crap about writers like this. Yes, I know he isn’t the greatest writer, but I will guarantee you he is doing the best he can and working every day to improve. I get that it is the comment section, but they are still like any other writer.
I hate how some of these posters talk crap about posters like this. Yes, I know he isn’t the greatest poster, but I will guarantee (no I won’t) you he is doing the best he can and working every day to improve or not. I get that it is the comment section, but they are still like any other poster.
I see what you did there.
You are welcome. All fun!
Omar’s mom, welcome to the board!
I think a bigger story would be if there was a player that the Mariners were NOT interested in trading.
Mitch Haniger
Dealing dipoto would trade family members to upgrade his thanksgiving roster if he could. Nobody is off limits, even mitch haniger
Who wouldn’t want to upgrade their thanksgiving roster?
Oh damn I thought you meant thanksgiving ROOSTER
When talking about poor defensive catchers, I noticed no mention of mlbtr favorite player Gary Sanchez.
Much as I contemplated writing, “…ranked him alongside Josh Phegley, Welington Castillo, Pedro Severino, Chance Sisco and James McCann as one of MLB’s worst defenders at the position in 2019. Gary Sanchez, meanwhile, ranked 12 spots higher but was still clearly below-average,” it felt a bit out of place.
I understand… it’s difficult to criticize a Yankee players defense.
BTW, who were those 12 players and did they play nearly as much as these other players? I don’t have access to Baseball Prospectus. Counting players that only caught 300 innings is “a bit out of place”.
You don’t need special access or a subscription to view Baseball Prospectus’ leaderboard.
“This site can’t provide a secure connectionwww.baseballprospectus.com sent an invalid response.”
That’s your issue. Works in 4 browsers for me. None logged into an account there.
Gary Sanchez 2019 fielding stats:
-5.1 framing runs
-.8 blocking runs
-2 DRS
23% runners caught stealing
.7 dWAR
Out of the 12 catchers below Sanchez, only one had less than 300 innings behind the plate.
But almost all of them had less innings than Sanchez and Sanchez only caught 86 games. (Ramos and Contreras had more) These were backup catchers he’s listing that were worse than Sanchez.
Still, you saw the stats. Mr. Adams said he was below average, which is correct. He doesn’t have to talk down to the Yankees every post.
Still, I saw the original post and noticed no Sanchez. I looked at the stats myself and couldn’t believe he wasn’t included. I didn’t have access to Baseball Prospectus from my computer, but looked at Baseball Reference and Sanchez was right there among the other guys. Worst in errors, near the top in passed balls, wild pitches, near the bottom in CS%. And that’s with a middle of the pack number of innings. I looked at another site for pitch framing and he was below average in strikes called even though he had a better staff than most of these other guys.
I was finally able to access Baseball Prospectus on my phone and saw the 12 players between Sanchez and Narvaez were mostly back-up catchers… Wieters, Hicks, Falefa, Smith… then you had almost regulars in Suzuki and Lucroy, and 2 regulars in Ramos and Contreras.
I was able to read the prospectus list just fine. Hey Steve, a long t of people were saying that darnaud has poor defense on the post about the Braves signing him but I noticed on that list he was only ranked 22nd worst in the league. Is he better defensively then some give him credit for or is there something I’m missing? I’m a Braves fan that was excited when we signed him but got a little let down after reading so many people bash his defensive ability.
Still no reason to mention Sanchez as he is 12 spots away. Your Yankee hatred knows no bounds, and it makes you sound foolish and immature.
Man you guys will just shoehorn anything at anytime to feebly attempt to hit your own desired narrative.
Always count on your Yankee hating comments…what a way to start the day!
Not hating, Like Steve says… “It’s just reality.”.
Ya seriously. I mean he didnt even provides stats to validate his narrative. Oh wait..he did..but in your accusation YOU sure didnt provide any reasoning at all
Sanchez in 742 innings… 7 passed balls, 23% CS, league most 15 errors, 105th in fielding percentage for catcher .982 (I included players that only caught 200 inning just like Stevie did), 47% Strike %
Narvaez in 815 innings… 3 passed balls, 18% CS, 6 errors, .992 Fielding Percentage 46.6 % Strike %
McCann in 905 innings… 3 passed balls, 31% CS, 7 errors .992 FP 44.7% Strike %
Phegley 824 innings… 15 passed balls, 32% CS, 2 errors, .997 FP 46% Strike %
I mean, I could see Sanchez included in the conversation (That’s a huge difference in fielding percentage and then add in the 7 passed balls)…. I would avoid guys like Sisco and Falefa and Hicks who only caught 400 innings. But if I wanted to talk about starting catchers that were bad defensively, my conversation would have included Sanchez (though he did improve this year) and Ramos (94 stolen bases) and maybe Elias Diaz.
Sanchez was bad…. but like I said he did improve, (PB cut in half, less WP) so maybe I would have included him and mentioned he is better than last year. I wouldn’t given him the Nick Castellanos treatment and said he’s a DH only and shouldn’t be in the field.
I didn’t realize we were in the 1990’s using stats like fielding percentage and errors to judge defensive prowess.
Well maybe you need help reading the bigger words because I mentioned much more than just fielding percentage.
Not to mention the fact that fielding percentage flat out still matters. It doesn’t matter how talented you are if you let balls get by you. Willy Mays was one of the most gifted center fielders in MLB history but he was more concerned with making diving catches that got him on the cover of the newspaper so he would frequently put himself out of position just to make those catches and show off his speed. His fielding percentage suffered because of that. I would much rather have a guy that plays in the spot they should because they are more concerned with making outs to win a game than getting attention. I know Hank Aaron was a right fielder and not nearly as defensively gifted as Mays but he always put himself in the best position to catch the ball. He didn’t make diving catches because he didn’t have to. He was smart enough to play in the right spot all the time. He (along with many other players in the league) used to make fun of Mays for playing out of position just to get attention. Aaron never wanted the attention and even if he did he knew his bat would have gotten the attention for him. Mays intentionally played out of position because he realized he was caught in Aaron’s 755 foot shadow. Mays was a far better defender but his attention needy antics caused him to have a lower fielding percentage than Aaron. That’s sad. I will take the fielding percentage every time over flashy catches.
I have heard criticism of Mays before and have seen that is how some have felt about Mays and his fielding. Every person is allowed to have an opinion. I do however, have an objection to a statement you made. You stated:
“Mays intentionally played out of position because he realized he was caught in Aaron’s 755 foot shadow.”
Not sure if that is even remotely logical It makes little sense and seems out of place in your argument. How would Mays know that Aaron would hit 755 Homers? Aaron his his 755th home run in 1976. Mays last remotely decent year was 1971 and he retired in 1973. From 1951-1971 Mays hit 646 homers (Mays missed 1953 due to Military Service) while Aaron hit 639. Their totals during this time were pretty comparable. I just don’t see Willie feeling that he saw himself deficient to Aaron in any way, especially when it came to hitting home runs. You also have to take in account that Mays lost a year to military service and played in Candlestick Park for several years (where homers go to die) whereas Aaron played many years in Atlanta which on the other hand was somewhat of a launching pad. With all of that in consideration, there just doesn’t seem to be a justification for this specific part of your criticism. Willie played for the love and joy of base ball and that was overwhelmingly obvious in how he played.
Criticism aside, in most rankings of the best defensive center fielder or best defensive outfielder of all time, May is number 1 in many rankings and rarely lower than number 5. You may want to see him as deliberately playing out of position but some will see it as him being a showman and as an entertainer which was part of the game in the Negro Leagues where both Mays and Aaron got their beginnings. Also, implying that because of his style of play that Mays was not as intelligent as Aaron or that his play was sad, demonstrates that you may not have understood the joy that Willie derived from playing baseball. I would suggest reading one of the books about him. This is not the Willie Mays that most people have come to love.
Not doubting you, but I would also be interested in any source where Hank Aaron made fun of Willie’s fielding. The only criticisms that I were able to source were that Jackie Robinson criticized him for not taking more of an active role in the Civil Rights movement and Willie not retiring and hanging on too long.
Finally, Mays career fielding % is .981 – 141 Errors in 7431 Chances – Aaron’s career fielding % is .980 – 117 Errors in 5857 Chances.
This is why I think the Marlins should make Jorge Alfaro available. He likely won’t be part of their next contending team and can only help them by playing well and increasing his trade value. It’s a double edged sword though as the longer Miami waits the less control a receiving team would have.
lol @ next contending team
They have won two championships since the team was formed, that’s two more than a lot of more-established teams. They will sneak up on everyone with a phenomenal season again sooner or later. But probably later.
I wouldn’t mind seeing him in ATL so they can ship out flowers. Let him work with Eddie Perez a little bit and he’d be good to go.
Already have one subpar catcher in D’Arnaud, do you really want another one?
Boston might take a look at him as the backup to Christian Vazquez, i dont seem sandy leon and his 134 average every season being on this team much longer
I like this idea. He could find some rotating DH at bats as well to get him in the lineup more when JD gets some play in the corners against lefties.
The Bosox came to mind as I read this article. Give CV a breather with someone who is not a guaranteed out, and bring Christian in the late innings if dictated.
i heard Blake Swihart is available
Wonder if the Reds would have any interest in Narvaez?
5′ 11″ 220 pounds.
22 home runs but only 12 doubles.
I’m going to take a wild guess that if he had a 60 yard dash against Jorge Alfaro and J.T. Realmuto it wouldn’t be difficult to figure out which guy was Omar Narvaez.
I would put my money on Astudillo against those 3 and he’s smaller and heavier than them.
Chooch in his later stages
As an M’s fan. Narvaez always puts up a quality at-bat. He was my favorite hitter (for the M’s) to watch last year as he never seemed to give away outs.
In regards to his defense, yeah it’s bad but MLB execs are not putting as much emphasis into framework as they have in past because it is expected MLB will be implementing an electronic strike zone within the next 2-3 years.
I could definitely see a trade scenario of Haniger and Narvaez to the Padres for a package surrounding Luis Patino.
Rays not mentioned ? Seattle and Tampa have had a trade relationship previously….
they make several a year it seems
Ya, but whenever Rays ownership hears the words “arbitration eligible”, they go into complete apoplexy……
IMHO, the M’s would be better off holding onto Navarez until the almost inevitable catcher-injuries start to occur. He’s a pretty good hitter, given the fact that he maintains his OPS+ over extended at bats. Ya, the catching is poor, and without the super-ball, teams will start paying more attention to defense, but he has positive value. And it ain’t like the Mariners are broke; they can afford the 3M. And with the 26-man and work load awareness, a part-time DH/catcher could be extremely valuable.
Sure, they’d fit. I didn’t list out every plausible team. I omitted the Rays because of their more recent emphasis on catcher defense — hence the Zunino acquisition — but they also signed Wilson Ramos a few years back.
To be fair when the Rays signed Ramos, he was a pretty good defender. He had 10 DRS in 2015 (-1 in 2016), caught 37% of runners caught stealing in 2016, and was a top tier pitch framer in 2016 as well (10.7 framing runs).
This is literally exactly what I expect to happen.
Wouldn’t have minded the Braves going this route instead of the bag of glass they overpaid for lol
I’m feeling your concern too. I don’t think the Braves are done at the Catcher spot though. If they really are going to go into next season with Arnaud/Flowers then we better prepare ourselves for 500 AB’s from Flowers and another season leading the league in passed balls.
If I needed a catcher right now I’d just sign Chirinos for money.
That might be what Seattle wants to do
Yea, I think Chirinos is pretty underrated. Not a bad defender, only one really bad defensive season, and when he is given regular playing time, he is a really good offensive force.
A pro-active team might think about the timeline to when an electronic strike zone is implemented.
Omar seems like a perfect fit if that figures to occur within a couple or three years
In 2-3 he’ll be heading toward free agency. You have to get production in those 2-3 years. His 18% CS rate isn’t going to improve with a robo k zone either.
Here comes Trader Jerry jumping on the first non-ludicrous offer he receives instead of exercising a modicum of patience. When I saw we were paying all of Gordon’s contract AND gave up Neidert I knew we’d never win while he was GM.
This has brewers written all over it. Controllable players are what attracts David Stearns the most.
Given the state of Brewers pitching, I think DS is going to look for another D first catcher.
What Brewer pitchers benefited from Grandal’s defense? Many regressed, most notably Corbin Burnes and Chacin who they were counting on heavily at the start of the season.. It was Grandal’s offense that set him apart, and Narvaez is about as close as they can come to replacing that while saving a whole bunch of money they could use to make a big splash and go after Rendon.
If you think DS is going after Rendon you’re going to be sorely disappointed.
I agree. No way Rendon is even in the discussion. his starting price will be around 220-230 million.
agreed. narvaez/pina platoon
And teams who have traded with each other before are likely to trade with each other again..
Wouldn’t that be every team and Sterns along with every team and Dipoto?
Narvaez for Mario Feliciano. Brewers get a LHH C platoon for Pina. Mariners get their C of the future.
They have their C of the future, that’s a reason they’re willing to trade Narvaez
I’d send Supak and T. Williams to Seattle for Narvaez. I think both teams would be satisfied with their respected returns. This leaves enough money to sign Gregorius, Moustakas, Kendrick and a mid tier pitcher
I feel like the refs just handed the game to the patriots yesterday. It was dallas so it was fine but it just shows that some sports outcomes are still at least somewhat dictated by the officiating. I wish baseball would go to the electronic strike zone as soon as possible. Framing would become a pointless exercise and catchers could concentrate on … catching. I just feel that framing is such a useless skill that has to be worked on because baseball wants to control the strike zone. It’s time to move into the future. Get rid of the fake ball and call them what they are, not as you see them. Long live pitching and defense.
OMG, have you watched the Lions games in recent years? They get cheated regularly. They are a bad team, but the refs kill them when they look like they might win.
You can count on the Nats at least exploring Narvaez as an option. My guess is they’ll just bring back Gomes to pair up with Suzuki, but Narvaez would at least be an option for a team in need of a complementary backstop.
He’s a great fit on every team
well almost. think he would be redundant in Atlanta or CWS now, but im sure each of the 27 other teams may interested to varied degrees.
I find it interesting that Pedro Severino was one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball. He’s leap and bounds better than Chance Sisco behind the plate. I never thought Severino’s D was particularly great but I certainly didn’t consider it to be abysmal.
When he’s catching a rotation that’s as abysmal as the O’s, he won’t get great defensive grades.
So the mariners are looking to trade a backup catcher for a live arm middle relief candidate and/or a lottery ticket prospect?
No, this is just a bad take.
Maybe. Definitely an exaggeration, but I can’t imagine they’d exceed that by too much. They’re probably hoping to swap for someone they can control a little longer. Narvaez will be 28 next year, is more backup catcher for most teams, albeit with a small bit of offensive upside, but lots of defensive downside. 3 Years control, so they get his prime. I dunno.
I doubt it’s significantly more. It’s 3 arb seasons for Narvaez. There’s a reason Jerry is shopping. I’m sure he wants a better defensive catcher to handle all the young pitching the M’s have coming up. It’s clear that Narvaez does them no favors in that regard. They’ll get something back but you’ll be disappointed if you were hoping for a lot here
The Yankees will need a backup but not sure they need another who is limited defensively…
I agree, especially when Gary Sanchez, their starter makes Jorge Posada look like a Gold Glover, which he was not, but he was decent defensively, which Sanchez wishes he could be.
isn’t Austin Nola a possibility to start at catcher if Narvaez is dealt?
He only played 1b last year so think but might also be a catcher.
I think they would rather keep Nola as a super utility player than a starter. If Narvaez is traded then Murphy would probably become the everyday guy while Nola fills in every once in awhile.
i think they halted the Nola catching experiment.
I can’t imagine any serious contender wants Narvaez to be the everyday catcher. Maybe as a platoon catcher with a very strong defensive option like a Maldonado. I’m sure they’ll get a lotto ticket or two back for him but I wouldn’t expect very much.
Narvaez had a solid year offensively. He’s not the best behind the plate but I don’t understand the need to trade him. They acquired him last year at a not cheap price (Colome) and were excited to do so.
Does anyone have a logical explanation as to why noone steals bases anymore? I understand that guys are getting on base less with the spike in strikeouts and home runs, but if catchers are only throwing out 27% or 28% of base stealers you would think there would be more players with 20 or 30 attemps per season in the league. I was going through some old baseball cards from the 80’s and first baseman were swiping 20 bags a pop. The game has changed so much and as much as I love baseball, I think the recent trends aren’t very good for the game.
Baseball is boring now on the offensive side.
If its boring why watch it? Why be on this site???
The analytical trend says you need to steal roughly at a 75% rate for it to be a positive. If Catchers are throwing out 27 or 28% you’re toeing that line. And you have to figure that the number of CS is biased downward because you have mostly the best base stealers running in today’s game.
But it does make a lot of sense/ with how today’s game is played. Given the extreme boom of HRS it makes little sense in most situations to steal a base and risk getting thrown out.
blogs.fangraphs.com/breaking-down-stolen-base-brea…
Like Jbiz says above, analytics show that in the aggregate, stealing bases does not generate more runs. THIS is an example, along with defensive shifts and pitch patterns, where analytics has completely changed the game of baseball. Many would argue for the worse. Manfred is trying to course correct (3-batter rule, talk about shift limits) but then people say Manfred is the one changing the game too much. The game has already changed; we should be open to methods to get it back.
A lot of the small ball skills don’t stand up to the analytics. There are still situations where a stolen base or a sacrifice can lead to a different than expected outcome. There must be some value in watching the game’s best closer heave the ball into center field on a bunt (2001) or try to hold the runner on to protect a one run lead (2004). With analytics saying not to do it, the skills to perform will slowly erode until there will be an inability to perform them on the biggest stage in the biggest moment. The game will be changed for the worse. Even more boring.
I agree Whyhay. A good example (that you mentioned) is bunting. It floors me that a MLB player can’t bunt. I coach Little League and theres very little mention of bunting. I, however, require my players to know how to bunt.
Additionally, what’s interesting is that Money Ball worked because very few teams were doing it. The As were zigging when everyone else was zagging. Now every team is zagging. It may be time to zig again. Small ball may start putting pressures of defenses not used to defending it.
The shift literally says “if you can bunt the ball there, you can have first base” but if the hitter is really good, its not worth it, because either a double or home run is preferable, and thats what the ceiling of most good hitters ABs are.
Rays cause he’s cheap
A’s Billy Beane go ahead and trade for Omar Narváez right now. His future is just bright, he is a lefty with pop and he is durable!
I think they’re alright w Sean Murphy. He looks pretty good.
They want a lefty backup for Murphy
they have Jonah Heim, who is a switch hitter
Also has zero innings in MLB and the A’s are a contender.
Jaso part two? Narvaez is a fit, Plus he’d be a great bat off the bench and sometimes DH. Only in that role though.
Latest post on MLBTRPC: So and so was released today, after 551 PAs of .161/.196/.223 and -23 DRS on the season. He was reportedly blindsided before this season by the unexpected release of the bat boy. He had been doing a local backpack drive for the school kids, and was headed home from choir practice when notified. MLBTRPC was unable to reach his neighbor for comment.
Free country.
Don’t like what you see here …and don’t have the intelligence to recognize the value/entertainment Steve and the guys do provide?
Why are you here?
Never mind. Asked and answered: “don’t have the intelligence”
My point exactly: not only does the post name the trade candidate, but outlines his strengths and weaknesses on offense and defense, and possible destinations. Superb. But the first comment is about how(in short) “the terrible writer said mean things about him”, when in reality all things in the post were based on previous history and statistics. Honestly, catcher Robinson Chirinos may quite possibly be the nicest man in all of baseball(truth), but I just want to know his lines and metrics.
would the rangers trade for him and what would it cost them
Framing metrics has got to be the most asinine ” stat ” ever invented. People that burp it up – and believe that it affects whether an umpire calls any particular pitch a ball or a strike – have obviously never played competitive baseball or, even better, been an umpire at any level.
These MLB pitchers are throwing so fast that the umpire uses his experience to call a ball or strike in a split-second. He’s not even aware of how the catcher ” framed ” a pitch.
There are plenty of variables that go into deciding whether a particular catcher is good or bad defensively. Looking at some obtuse stat such as “pitch framing metrics ” is not one. Smh.
Yeah, tears of easily accessible data and research be damned. SouthPaw48463383763 has had it with these newfangled nerd stats, he prefers baseball to be played with the umpire in a rocking chair behind the mound line 1875 when men were men !
Ok, millennial
Boomers ruined everything and its all their fault!!!
How can you watch the games and say pitch framing isn’t a thing? The stats may still be a bit inconsistent in their early stages, but pitch framing is a thing. A bad catcher can and does cost their pitchers strikes.
Bad framing, or receiving, as it should be called, may cost pitchers strikes in low level amateur leagues, but MLB catchers are way past that stage. To watch a game on a TV monitor and decide whether or not a catcher cost the pitcher a strike by the way he ” framed ” a 98 mph fastball is laughable. And people who blindly believe it as concrete proof of a good or bad catcher are even more ridiculous.
I know most people these days, especially young people, can’t afford
to buy seats directly behind home plate, but if they could, or maybe have, you wouldn’t believe how fast these pitchers throw and the speed of the game in general. Even the GM of the team I root for – Brian Cashman – has stated on multiple occasions that defensive metrics still have a long way to go.
Catch framing isn’t even new.
In Little League, the catchers were taught about the importance of not moving the glove in a manner that made pitches look like they were strikes. The difference today is, Statcast can chart how often bad framing loses strikes.
So long as they have umpires making the calls, it is a very important skill to have as a catcher, and should not be diminished.
I’m assuming that the objective “stat” for framing is tallied when a catcher takes a “ball” and gets it called a “strike”. I will say that catching as a whole is a very subjective process / task. I played college ball (as a 3rd baseman) but played catcher at all levels (plus several years later in adult baseball). Framing is a huge factor in determining catcher skill. BUT framing is more than a ball/strike call: it involves having the umpire’s trust (to get the call), foot placement, catcher off arm placement, etc. I just hesitate to rely on an objective stat for a very subjective process.
It’s great that there are a lot of passionate baseball fans on this site, but it’s obvious that, I’d say, 90% of the guys commenting on this site have never played the game above the ” all 15 players get to hit ” little league. I’d say the same thing about most of the writers on this site, as well.
Your experience was a factor in coming up with an excellent description of what you believed to be the basis for judging a catcher behind the plate.
Lmao this is ridiculous
Yeah yeah you played little league in 1956. We get it.
Ok, millennial
Just because you do ok in your draft kings fantasy league using obscure, ridiculous stats off the Fangraphs website doesn’t mean it applies to actual real life MLB baseball. Good reply, tho. Real cutting edge stuff, JD.
I never played in a league “little” or other wise , in which anybody other than the starters got to hit or play in the field. We weren’t snowflakes back in the day , you just tried to get better or waited your turn. I spent my share of time viewing the game from the dugout/bench and was never a star and I just accepted it. I had a friend who was a star in LL and once struck out with the bases loaded to end a championship game and his father took him behind the car and beat him with a belt…LOL his dad was a Baptist Preacher. I guess things were a little different in the mid 60’s to early 70’s..
You remind me of a very old ostrich.
Omar Narvaez for Jon Gray.
Mets are in the market for another (younger) catcher that can hit along with a right handed hitting outfielder. The question is, do the Mets have anything left the Mariners want? They owe the Mets a little retribution from the last deal anyway!
Mariners are smart to explore a deal here. They just watched a team overpay for an injury-prone, inconsistent catcher who’s defense can be a liability. With teams looking for some offensive thump at catcher, Narvaez has that.
Mets should be exploring a Ramos trade also.
Cubs can generate a nice return for Contreras if they choose to deal him. All can thank Atlanta.
I wonder if Angel’s might jump on this.
Lol I don’t care what stats say watch the tv and watch when Gary Sanchez is behind the plate! The guy simpling cant catch. It looks like he is struggling the whole time to even move because he’s so damn lazy
Don’t ask them to watch a game… they have better things to do like read stats. That’s what the game has become… reading stats.
It’s just funny because most people base their opinions off of stats when it comes to Sanchez all it takes is the eye test
Mariners have no offense, so DiPoto trades their best hitter.
One playoff team in 10 seasons of being a GM, we’re waiting for MLB to stop hiring this clown.
Ahh yes, this is absolutely the correct take on what the Mariners are doing. They should trade Kelenic for Betts and Price, and Julio Rodriguez for Archer and Marte. That way they’d be sure to win at least 84 games and finish 5 games out of a wild card spot. Now this is the plan that Jon Heyman is searching for.
Brew Crew has gaping holes at 3B and C. Jerry should try and pull a Cano/Diaz trade by packaging Seager and Narvaez to the Brewers. Both would step up offense in Miller Park, and while Seager’s option year would kick in, combined the 2 players would cost about $70mm for THREE full years. If the Mariners kicked in $15mm (e.g.) that would be $55mm or about $18mm/year for the pair (much less than it would cost them in free agency, with 3 years of certainty.) Seager is still a good defensive 3B (better than Moose) and after recovering from his off-season injuries, he hit well. Omar is a top 3 offensive catcher and the Brewers will not have too many top defensive choices left in free agency. In return the Mariners free up $$ for now and the future and also can try and get one of the more recent Brewers draft picks (i.e. Antoine Kelly) as a return, since they are eating some $$. A win-win
Almost everyone is predicting Moustakas to sign for $10-12MM per on a multiyear deal (2-3 years). So I’m not sure how taking on Seager’s terrible contract would be an upgrade over resigning Moose. I do believe Narvaez is a good fit for the Brewers but not if we have to take Seager too.
Also I’m not sure if there is much difference value wise between Moustakas and Seager when you take into account their offensive production. So paying Seager 3/$37MM (if Seattle pays $15MM) isn’t needed when you already have a similar player who a) loves playing in Milwaukee, b) is a good clubhouse presence and c) will cost the same or less while providing similar value.
I am not surprised to see him listed with four former/active White Sox catchers on this list in terms of defense. They haven’t had a good defensive catcher since Pierzynski and now finally maybe Grandal.
Sorry three former/active catchers.